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That Good Men Should Look On and Do Nothing: The International Failure to Regulate Private Military and Security Companies

Abstract: This paper delves into the urgent need for effective regulation of private military and security companies (PMSCs) in the international community. It highlights the atrocities committed by the Wagner Group in Ukraine, Mali, and other locations, underscoring the gravity of the threat posed by these firms. The paper examines the failures of previous attempts to regulate the industry, emphasizing that the PMSC industry has largely been left to self-regulate over the past two and a half decades. This laissez-faire approach has been driven by short-sighted “national security” concerns and a neoliberal belief in the power of markets to solve all problems. The United States, in particular, has not only failed to advance its own efforts to rein in the industry but has actively impeded international efforts to do so. In light of these challenges, the paper advocates for the establishment of a regulatory framework that strikes a balance between allowing PMSCs to operate and implementing robust controls to govern their conduct. It emphasizes the importance of stricter scrutiny on subcontractors, improved reporting on the export of PMSC services, and the empowerment of regulatory bodies to enhance oversight. By addressing these issues, the paper aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on regulating PMSCs and mitigating the risks associated with their operations.

June 16, 2023

The Problem

In April of 2022, video and photographic evidence that emerged showing the bodies of dozens of massacred civilians left scattered across the streets of Bucha, Ukraine shocked the world. While not solely responsible for the atrocities committed there, Russia’s Wagner Group, a private military and security company (PMSC) with a hugely checkered past, likely played a significant role in the wanton brutality that Russian forces subjected the Ukrainian town to. More distressingly, the Russian PMSCs’ barbarities in Bucha were not an isolated incident, as Wagner Group has been accused of similar human rights violations and other war crimes not only elsewhere in Ukraine but in Libya, Syria, the Central African Republic, and elsewhere throughout the world. Indeed, just a month later, the firm would be accused of conducting a military operation together with the Malian army in the village of Moura that resulted in the gross human rights violations and the deaths of nearly five hundred Malian civilians. 

Wagner Group leadership has evinced similarly little care for the lives of its own troops, and for the war in Ukraine, the PMSC made the decision to recruit, “thousands of inmates from Russian prisons by offering them pardons in exchange for combat tours,” to fight in Donbas, where they were deployed, as described by one Ukrainian battalion commander, Lt. Col. Pavlo, “…like zombies. They used the prisoners like a wall of meat. It didn’t matter how many we killed—they kept coming.” 

While the Biden administration has instituted various economic sanctions on the group and its various subsidiaries—including efforts to cut off the firm’s access to advanced Western weapons systems—and has simultaneously stepped up intelligence sharing with African allies in an attempt to dissuade countries on the continent not to engage the Russian security firm’s services, the United States has historically been absent from the regulation of what used to be known as the mercenary industry. 

Despite a stream of statements and diplomatic cables from the administration that demonstrate a growing level of concern about, “Wagner’s ability to shape events in countries where the U.S. and its allies hold business and diplomatic relationships,” Western nations’—and particularly the United States’—decades of somnambulance regarding the regulation of groups which have historically been called “mercenaries” has created a situation where a firm like Wagner can operate with relative freedom throughout the world, free to offer their guns to the highest bidder no matter how they trample on the rights of civilians around the globe. Moreover, while the United States is not solely responsible for the dearth of binding international legislation governing the use of mercenaries or private military and security companies, its frequent use of such firms, coupled with its obstruction of efforts to create binding rules for these entities, has created a situation where the only guardrails for the industry are voluntary standards that lack any kind of international enforcement mechanism. 

Risks Posed to Civilians by PMSCs in Contemporary Conflict/Source: https://civiliansinconflict.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/CIVIC_PMC.pdf#page=13
Risks Posed to Civilians by PMSCs in Contemporary Conflict/Source: https://civiliansinconflict.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/CIVIC_PMC.pdf#page=13

More distressing than the general international silence in response to the barbarities committed by the Wagner Group’s personnel throughout Europe, Africa, and the Middle East in recent years is the similarly lackluster response by the United States towards allegations of human rights violations by its own home-state PMSCs like the one formerly known as Blackwater (now Constellis)—which was involved not only in the Nisour Square massacre in 2007, but had already been accused of repeated instances of excessive force throughout Iraq in the years leading up to the Nisour Square incident. 

Increasing Blackwater Contracts (2001-2006)/Source: https://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/national/20071001121609.pdf#page=3
Increasing Blackwater Contracts (2001-2006)/Source: https://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/national/20071001121609.pdf#page=3

Especially as the United States attempted to ramp up its own military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the post-September 11th period, it looked to the private military and security industry to fulfill the vast amount of logistics, construction, security, and training needs it would face, resulting in a situation where, by 2011, total U.S., foreign, and host country national contractors outnumbered the number of U.S. uniformed military on the ground in those two countries and by 2019, and the ratio of contractor personnel to U.S. troops had reached a staggering 1.5:1. Moreover, this huge expansion in the use of private military and security firms came despite credible allegations against firms like Blackwater and CACI International Inc. of committing human rights violations. 

As P.W. Singer notes in his policy paper, “Can’t Win With ‘Em, Can’t Go To War Without ‘Em: Private Military Contractors and Counterinsurgency,” as far back as 2006 in Iraq, “Brigadier General Karl Horst, deputy commander of the US 3rd Infantry Division…tried to keep track of contractor shootings in his sector.” But when, over a period of just two months he found at least twelve shootings resulting in at least six dead Iraqi civilians, Horst said that private military and security contractors often, “run loose in this country and do stupid stuff. There’s no authority over them, so you can’t come down on them hard when they escalate force. They shoot people, and someone else has to deal with the aftermath.”

Singer further raises the point that even when U.S.-contracted PMSC personnel were not behaving badly, their pecuniary interests often led them to engage in behavior that was deleterious to the overall U.S. mission. Specifically, Singer points to the statement of journalist Robert Young Pelton who, describing his time spent embedded with Blackwater contractors in Baghdad, said that, “They’re famous for being very aggressive. They use their machine guns like car horns.” Singer concludes that, “viewed through the corporate lens, where a premium is placed on protecting assets above everything else, this behavior is certainly understandable. But it undermines the broader operation,” noting the statement of former Col. T.X. Hammes who had told PBS’ Frontline that: 

US State Department contract security, International (Green) Zone, Baghdad, Iraq./Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Contract_security,_Baghdad.jpg
US State Department contract security, International (Green) Zone, Baghdad, Iraq./Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Contract_security,_Baghdad.jpg

“The security forces guarding Ambassador [L. Paul] Bremer. Blackwater’s an extraordinarily professional organization, and they were doing exactly what they were tasked to do: protect the principal. The problem is in protecting the principal they had to be very aggressive, and each time they went out they had to offend locals, forcing them to the side of the road, being overpowering and intimidating, at times running vehicles off the road, making enemies each time they went out. So they were actually getting our contract exactly as we asked them to and at the same time hurting our counterinsurgency effort.”

Blackwater's Use of Force (2005-2007)/Source: https://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/national/20071001121609.pdf#page=7
Blackwater’s Use of Force (2005-2007)/Source: https://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/national/20071001121609.pdf#page=7

Similarly, as a 2011 Congressional Research Service report from Moshe Schwartz has argued, “abuses committed by contractors, including contractors working for both DOD and U.S. civilian agencies, can also strengthen anti-American insurgents.” Distressingly, Schwartz points to the statement of one senior Iraqi Interior Ministry official who, when discussing the behavior of private security contractors in his country said that, “Iraqis do not know them as Blackwater or other PSCs but only as Americans.” 

Finally, Schwartz stresses that some analysts have seen the harm that unaccountable PMSC contractors can have on U.S. counterinsurgency strategy, arguing that, “if counterinsurgency operations are a competition for legitimacy but the government is allowing armed contractors to operate in the country without the contractors being held accountable for their actions, then the government itself can be viewed as not legitimate in the eyes of the local population.”

According to P.W. Singer, these interactions can be more clearly understood through a hypothetical real-world example:

“An Iraqi is driving in Baghdad, on his way to work. A convoy of black-tinted SUVs comes down the highway at him, driving in his lane, but in the wrong direction. They are honking their horns at the oncoming traffic and firing machine gun bursts into the road in front of any vehicle that gets too close. He veers to the side of the road. As the SUVs drive by, Western-looking men in sunglasses point machine guns at him. Over the course of the day, that Iraqi civilian might tell X people about how ‘The Americans almost killed me today, and all I was doing was trying to get to work.’ Y is the number of other people that convoy ran off the road on its run that day. Z is the number of convoys in Iraq that day. Multiply X times Y times Z times 365 and you have the mathematical equation of how to lose a counterinsurgency within a year.”

Further complicating matters, it is not only States that have increasingly used these types of firms, as Ekaterina Zepnova, Giulia Campisi, Felip Daza, Carlos Díaz and Nora Miralles submit that these firms, “are increasingly used not just to guard elite housing developments, but also in public spaces too,” as, “some majority-Jewish neighbourhoods in Jerusalem, for example, are protected by PMSCs such as Modi’in Ezrachi, which perform roles that could properly be considered to be those of public security forces.” Moreover, the authors point out that, “in some cases, such as Cape Town, where the exercise of public security often continues to reflect the inequalities of the Apartheid era, private security companies such as Professional Protection Alternatives not only patrol wealthy white neighbourhoods but also public areas such as beaches, carrying out operations to evict people from public spaces.” 

As Sean McFate articulates in his 2019 monograph, “Mercenaries and War: Understanding Private Armies Today,” in today’s world, “even terrorists hire mercenaries,” noting that, “Malhama Tactical is based in Uzbekistan, and they only work for jihadi extremists,” noting that, “most of [the firm’s] work is in Syria for Nusra Front, an al Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group, and the Turkistan Islamic Party, the Syrian branch of a Uighur extremist group based in China.” What’s more, McFate continues, it is not just extremists like the Turkistan Islamic Party that is reaching out to these firms, as, “nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) such as CARE, Save the Children, CARITAS, and World Vision are increasingly turning to the private sector to protect their people, property, and interests in conflict zones,” as even noted public figures such as, “actress Mia Farrow considered hiring Blackwater to end the genocide in Darfur in 2008.” 

Finally, as Raphael Parens has posited, even if the war in Ukraine resolves advantageously for Kyiv and the West, the aftermath of that conflict is likely to bring a surge of mercenaries into Africa as, “thousands of former soldiers with combat experience will hit the open market.” While, he acknowledges that, “these soldiers will find limited job prospects in Ukraine or Russia, as both armies cut down on active-duty troops,” Parens maintains that, “Wagner Group and other private military companies from South Africa, France, and the United Kingdom [will] offer these former soldiers an option to support their families and escape their circumstances,” with, “the consequences…[falling] heavily on African countries, which have already begun to employ mercenaries at a rate not seen since the Cold War.” 

In short, while States have failed to grapple with the rise of the PMSC industry over the past two decades, the war in Ukraine presents a unique opportunity to rectify that mistake and to begin to bring this rapidly growing industry more under State supervision. 

A Growing Industry

The provision of private military and security forces is a global industry which is projected to grow from $100 billion to $224 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach $457.3 billion by 2030. However, despite its significant expansion in both size and scope since the turn of the century, efforts to regulate this industry have not kept pace. 

As the National Defense University’s Sean McFate has argued, “privatizing war changes warfare in dangerous ways,” as when Clausewitz and Adam Smith are merged together the resultant, “for-profit warriors are not bound by political considerations…[individuals whose] main restraint [are] not the laws of war but the laws of economics.” Indeed, one illustrative incident that demonstrates the dangers of PMSC firms placing profit over politics took place in Syria in 2018 when several hundred Wagner fighters attacked a U.S.-manned outpost in Deir ez-Zor in the quest to gain control of petroleum facilities in the country despite the conflict risking a full-scale confrontation between Russia and the United States. 

McFate further contends that, “private war lowers the barrier for entry,” into conflicts as “mercenaries are rented forces and clients may be more carefree about going to war if their people do not have to bleed.” Finally, McFate notes that, “private war breeds war,” in that, “mercenaries and clients seek each other out, negotiate prices, and wage war for private gain. This prompts other buyers to do the same in self-defense. As soldiers of fortune flood the market, the price for their services drops and new buyers hire them for additional private wars. This cycle continues until the region is swamped in conflict…”

Ultimately, whether for short-sighted “national security” reasons or due to a neoliberal belief in the power of markets to solve all problems, the PMSC industry has been mostly left to regulate itself over the past two and a half decades, as the United States has not only failed to advance its own efforts to reign in the industry but it has actively impeded international efforts to do so. 

This failure to advance more stringent industry regulations not only diminishes U.S. condemnations of the atrocities committed by groups like Wagner but it actively undermines U.S. foreign policy goals in Africa, where the failure to creating binding international regulations on the conduct of such groups has led to the expansion of Russian influence—by way of its proxy, Wagner—throughout countries such as Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Chad where Wagner Group—on behalf of Russia—has offered “counterterrorism” and logistical support to military-led governments that have had to look elsewhere for security assistance after Western leaders had condemned military coups in those countries. 

While non-binding instruments such as the Montreux Document (Montreux) and the International Code of Conduct for Private Security Service Providers (ICoC) and its Geneva-based International Code of Conduct for Private Security Service Providers’ Association (ICoCA), do provide some kind of normative guide rails for the industry conduct, neither the Montreux Document nor the ICoC are internationally binding legal instruments, rendering compliance with either the Montreux Document or the ICoC an entirely voluntary processes, with no effective sanctions to provide firms a real incentive not to violate these collections of “good” practices. 

Sample of 16 Certified PMSCs Conformance with HR Standards/Source: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/business-and-human-rights-journal/article/abs/certifying-private-security-companies-effectively-ensuring-the-corporate-responsibility-to-respect-human-rights/36D71DAADAC7367580344E6D5806999F
Sample of 16 Certified PMSCs Conformance with HR Standards/Source: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/business-and-human-rights-journal/article/abs/certifying-private-security-companies-effectively-ensuring-the-corporate-responsibility-to-respect-human-rights/36D71DAADAC7367580344E6D5806999F

Outsourcing State Functions

As Frédéric Mégret writes in, “Are There ‘Inherently Sovereign Functions’ in International Law,” the, “privatization of functions that were previously considered sovereign has reached new heights, accelerating a process of ‘retreat of the state,’” as that privatization process has extended not just to the running of “previously public monopolies, including the health system, education, and even prisons,” but to, “the use of force,” as well, including police, military and spying functions. Mégret further points to a 2018 paper from Nigel D. White, Mary E. Footer, Kerry Senior, Mark van Dorp, Vincent Kiezebrink, Y. Wasi Gede Puraka, and Ayudya Fajri Anzas which argues that, “the prevailing orthodox view of the public-private distinction as found in international law is very much based on the concept of a strong sovereign state, one that retains a firm grip, if not monopoly, on the use of force,” and that international rules governing state responsibility and whether certain conduct is a “public” or “private act for which the state does or does not bear direct responsibility, “are not well-suited to the turn of the century phenomenon of Western governments contracting out security functions to private actors…”

As Nigel D. White writes in his own piece responding to Mégret’s article, the outsourcing of security functions, “reduces the state’s competence on the international plane including its ability to project its sovereign power abroad within the framework of international laws agreed by states on the basis of sovereign equality. By transferring some of its military and security functions to the private sector in its external use of force, the state erodes the power of direct command and control it has over armed forces essential for the state’s monopoly.” White notes that in this shift from public to private force the, “contract-based model largely depends on a combination of liability in private law and self-regulatory forms of corporate social responsibility that purport to ensure that contractors comply with the basic rules on the use of force,” and that, “outsourcing means that a strong vertical system of control over the use of force is replaced by a weaker horizontal one.” However, in practice, this weaker horizontal system of control largely only exists for Western firms, and even then, it is more there to ensure firms’ continued ability to obtain government contracts that require adherence to certain codes of conduct and less about ensuring robust regulation of this emerging—and frequently troubling—global industry. 

Moving forward, what the United States needs to do is abandon its laissez-faire attitude towards the industry and embrace its role as a global standards-setter. This can be achieved by actively collaborating with the UN Working Group on Mercenaries to develop a legally binding international agreement that works to constrain the freedom of action of private military and security firms. Such an agreement should ensure proper vetting, training, licensing of PMSC personnel, prohibition on specific weapons in certain situations, and the establishment of mechanisms for victims to obtain full restitution from firms and individuals responsible for harm. Without a legally binding international convention governing the behavior of PMSCs, these firms will continue to proliferate. Consequently, the U.S. will find itself in a world where private firms are free to exert force with relative impunity around the globe, as they are unlikely to face prosecution under existing legislation in host or home nations.

Early Efforts to Regulate the PMSC/Mercenary Industry

Major efforts to regulate the private military and security industry largely arose due to the actions of mercenary outfits in the wars of national liberation in Africa throughout the second half of the twentieth century. Throughout the 1960s, ‘70s, and early ‘80s, the United Nations Security Council had issued several resolutions condemning the use of mercenaries in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1967, the People’s Republic of Benin in 1977, and the Republic of Seychelles in 1981. However, despite voicing its extreme concern about states tolerating the recruitment and training of mercenaries on their territory, the Security Council chose to refrain from taking more binding actions to stop the proliferation of such groups at that time. 

While the UN failed to specifically address the proliferation of mercenarism in Africa in the latter half of the twentieth century, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) did demonstrate some level of concern with the industry’s continued rise. Specifically, the 1977 Additional Protocols to the Geneva Conventions of 1949 contains Article 47, which defines mercenaries as any person who is: a) is specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict; b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities; c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party; d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict; e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces. 

Unfortunately, in defining a mercenary so precisely—specifically the section requiring that a mercenary be promised “material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar rank and functions in the armed forces of that Party”—the Additional Protocols drew too narrow of a distinction on who can be defined as a mercenary, limiting the Additional Protocol’s effectiveness. For example, as a former member of the UN Working Group on Mercenaries, José L. Gómez del Prado, writes in his article, “The Ineffectiveness of the Current Definition of a ‘Mercenary’ in International Humanitarian and Criminal Law,”’ for the book Public International Law and Human Rights Violations by Private Military and Security Companies, that these definitions would be difficult to actually apply to the private military and security personnel that were so active throughout the United States’ wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Del Prado asserts that, “the majority of people recruited by PMSCs to carry out security activities in the conflicts in Iraq or Afghanistan—people who could have been considered mercenaries—were motivated by a combination of selfish and altruistic motives…which were all in play simultaneously.” As such, he argues that, as human behavior is extremely complex and cannot be reduced to single factors, “it is impossible to prove legally the belief that mercenaries are solely financially motivated,” ultimately limiting the applicability of the Convention’s definition. In light of those limitations, del Prado suggests that, “rather than looking at the necessary prerequisites that set in motion and individual’s motivation, we should be concentrating on the acts taking place and the human rights violations they perpetrate.”

However, the Red Cross was not the only international organization that attempted to restrict the use of mercenaries during this period, as the Organization of African Unity (OAU) Convention for the Elimination of Mercenarism in Africa (OAU Convention) opened for signature in Libreville, Gabon in July of 1977. The OAU Convention, del Prado notes, “was largely based on the draft produced by the International Commission of Inquiry set up by the Angolan government with the aim of having an objective evaluation of the Luanda judgment,” on the trial of thirteen Western mercenaries who had been sentenced to either long prison terms or execution for their actions against the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola in 1975. Unfortunately, the 1977 OAU Convention had its own crippling limitations.

As Nihal El Mquirmi writes for the Policy Center for the New South in, “Navigating in a Grey Zone: Regulating PMSCs,” by the time of the ‘77 OAU Convention, the Organization had been concerned about the issue of mercenaries for at least a decade, as the 1967 Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the OAU formally recognized that, “the existence of mercenaries constitutes a serious threat to the security of Member States,” and called on, “all States of the world to enact laws declaring the recruitment and training of mercenaries in their territories a punishable crime and deterring their citizens from enlisting as mercenaries.” 

However, despite the prevalent belief among African governments that mercenaries had been, “partly responsible for ‘propping up’ illegitimate colonial regimes and threatening the independence aspirations of the African people,” for decades, and the concentrated efforts between 1967 and the adoption of the Convention in 1977 to restrict their usage, the definition of who precisely could be categorized as a mercenary in the ‘77 Convention imposed limitations on the document’s overall effectiveness. Specifically, Article 1 of the 1977 Convention defines as a mercenary, “anyone who, not a national of the state against which his actions are directed, is employed, enrols or links himself willingly to a person, group or organization whose aim is: a) To overthrow by force or arms or by any other means the government of that Member State of the OAU; b) To undermine the independence, territorial integrity or normal working of the institutions of the said State; c) To block by any means the activities of any liberation movement recognized by the OAU.” 

Despite coming into force in 1985, El Mquirmi argues that the OAU Convention’s definition has been a limiting factor in that its definition only included individuals who were not a national of the state against which their actions are directed, which failed to “anticipate in its definition the recruitment of mercenaries by African state governments seeking to maintain sovereignty.” Moreover, El Mquirmi continues, not only does the OAU Convention lack a concrete enforcement mechanism, but, “because of the historical presence of mercenaries in Africa during and after the decolonization process, the OAU Convention only criminalizes the use of mercenaries when they hinder or oppose ‘by armed violence a process of self-determination, stability or the territorial integrity’ of an African state.” Further limiting the Convention’s applicability, as of 2013, only thirty-one out of fifty-four African Union states had actually ratified the document.

Additionally, the definitions of who could be labeled as a mercenary in the Geneva and OAU Conventions posed challenges in their application to the types of outfits operating worldwide during that period. However, another initiative took place at the United Nations to address the growing presence of mercenary groups. Nigeria, in a letter dated December 5, 1979, requested the inclusion of an agenda item on the “Drafting of an international convention against activities of mercenaries” for the thirty-fourth session of the UN General Assembly.

What’s more, while the Geneva and OAU Conventions’ definitions of who could be labeled as a mercenary made it difficult to apply to the type of outfits operating throughout the world at the time, there was another effort at the United Nations to address the ongoing rise of mercenary groups, with Nigeria sending a December 5, 1979 letter to the United Nations Secretary-General requesting that the thirty-fourth session of the UN General Assembly include an agenda item on, “Drafting of an international convention against activities of mercenaries.”  

In December 1979, as a result of that request, the United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution 34/140 which recognized the threat that mercenarism posed to international peace and security, noting that, “like murder, piracy, and genocide, [mercenarism] is a universal crime against humanity,” and which called on all States to, “exercise the utmost vigilance against the menace posed by the activities of mercenaries and to ensure by both administrative and legislative measures that their territory…are not used for the planning…assembly, financing, training and transit of mercenaries designed to subvert or overthrow the Government of any Member State and to fight the national liberation movement of peoples which are struggling against colonial domination or alien occupation or racist regimes in the exercise of theri right of self-determination…” As part of that ‘79 resolution, the General Assembly called for the “drafting of an international convention to outlaw mercenarism in all its manifestations,” a process that would ultimately result in the 1989 International Convention against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries (ICRUFTM), a document that, while welcomed, would unfortunately have its own crippling limitations. 

The 1989 International Convention Against the Recruitment, Use, Financing, and Training of Mercenaries (ICRUFTM)

The 1989 International Convention Against the Recruitment, Use, Financing, and Training of Mercenaries (ICRUFTM), adopted in December of that year after nearly a decade of debate, contained a definition of mercenary that, while derived from both the 1977 Additional Protocols and the 1979 OAU Convention, “broadens the scope to include mercenaries operating in both international and non-international armed conflicts, but also in ‘any other situation.’” As Zarko Perovic wrote in a 2021 piece for Lawfare, the 1989 Convention, “has a five-factor test to determine who is a mercenary,” where, “a mercenary (a) is specifically recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict; (b) is motivated to take part in hostilities for private gain and is promised material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar rank and functions in the armed forces of that party; (c) is neither a national of a party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a party to the conflict; (d) is not a member of the armed forces of a party to the conflict; and (e) has not been sent by a state that is not a party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces,” where an individual who fulfills those criteria and who, “participates directly in hostilities or in a concerted act of violence,” being in violation of the Convention. 

However, the ‘89 Convention’s definition, as Nihal El Mquirmi points out, “excludes PMSCs that have operated in Iraq or in Afghanistan, contracted to protect the government and the territorial integrity of the state in which they operate.” Furthermore, the 1989 ICRUFTM lacks a monitoring body, which leaves enforcement up to individual member states, limiting the text’s practical applicability. Compounding ICRUFTM’s definitional issues, as José L. Gómez del Prado writes in, “A United Nations Instrument to Regulate and Monitor Private Military and Security Contractors,” the specific elements of the definition, when taken individually, pose problems on their own, specifically noting that:

“for example: the person has had to be recruited to combat, i.e. to take part in direct hostilities. This has to be specified in the contract, which usually is not. In addition, the person may or not be taking part in direct participation in hostilities, which is not always the case. The question of proving that the person is only motivated by the desire of gain is extremely hard to prove. As to the question that in order to be a mercenary the person must not be a national or a resident of a party to the conflict excludes a large number of persons. For instance, under this criteria all the citizens of countries participating in the Iraq war (Americans, British, Dutch, etc.) would not be catalogued as mercenaries.”

What’s more, del Prado notes, “one has to bear in mind that the five elements of the definition are cumulative, and all of them must be fulfilled: not only one or a few.” In addition, he argues that, “other problems which had not been envisaged at the time have appeared now with the contracting out of military and security functions to the private sector. For instance, the definition is ambiguous or does not foresee the activities of PSMCs in armed conflicts. It does not make the distinction between active and passive participation in combat. It leaves out the training of militaries, the operational assistance to the armed forces and the strategic planning.” 

In addition, as the Center for Civilians in Conflict alleged in a 2022 Issue Brief, “the criteria required to meet the…[ICRUFTM] definition of ‘mercenary’…[is] notoriously difficult to satisfy, rendering a ban on the use of mercenaries close to meaningless in practice.” On top of that, as Michael Scheimer points out in a 2009 American University International Law Review article, “only those countries that sign [ICRUFTM] are bound by it,” despite the fact that ICRUFTM, “has garnered even less support than Article 47: it has taken decades to come into effect, and far fewer states have signed [ICRUFTM] than ratified Article 47.” Scheimer additionally emphasizes that, “a [private military company [could find it easier to escape the language on compensation in [ICRUFTM] than the similar clause in Article 47, because the [ICRUFTM] language allows for official duty on behalf of a state, not just as a member of the armed forces,” so a state agency can contract with a private military or security firm to perform official state duties to avoid the Convention’s definition. 

Adding to these difficulties, as Amol Mehra writes in a January 2010 paper, “Bridging Accountability Gaps: The Proliferation of Private Military and Security Companies and Ensuring Accountability for Human Rights Violations,” the problems with ICRUFTM and the prior international definitions of mercenary are numerous. According to Mehra, “although [ICRUFTM] makes it a crime to be a mercenary, the enforcement of this crime depends on implementing legislation by the relevant state party.“ Additionally, Mehra notes that the rights mentioned in the 1989 Convention encompass, “self-determination” despite the fact that, “business activity impacts multiple internationally recognized rights, including the right to life, liberty and security of the person.”  

The result of these, “tremendous loopholes in coverage over PMSC actors under the Convention Against Mercenaries,” is that, “the Geneva Convention and other such international treaties, showcases the urgent need for an international consensus on accountability for the corporate entity and not just the contractors,” involved in mercenary activities. However, José L. Gómez del Prado has written, “the aim of such a binding legal instrument is not the outright banning of PMSCs, but rather to establish minimum international standards for States parties to regulate the activities of PMSCs and their personnel,” and that, “in addition, taking into account the extensive outsourcing of military and security functions and the growing role of PMSCs in armed conflicts, post-conflict and low intensity armed conflict situations it is also recommended to prohibit the outsourcing of inherently State functions to PMSCs in accordance with the principal of the State monopoly on the legitimate use of force.”

Towards a More Industry-Led Approach

If the 1977 Additional Protocols, the 1979 OAU Convention, and the 1989 ICRUFTM Conventions failed to deliver on the promise of actually restricting the use of the PMSC industry, it was largely due to the resistance these various conventions have received from Western countries. As Amol Mehra highlighted, “in 1999, the U.N. Development Program concluded, ‘multinational corporations are already a dominant part of the global economy—yet many of their actions go unrecorded and unaccounted. They must, however, go far beyond reporting to just their shareholders. They need to be ‘brought within the frame of global governance, not just the patchwork of national laws, rules and regulations.” 

However, despite this half-century old conclusion, as del Prado contends, “the position of Western countries in the U.N. has been a rejection of regulation and oversight mechanisms,” as a significant portion of the booming industry is headquartered in Western nations, providing those nations with tax receipts and politicians through extensive domestic and international lobbying. Instead, what Western nations have instead favored has largely been a more neoliberal regulatory approach to the industry. 

Starting in 2005, the government of Switzerland initiated talks with the International Committee of the Red Cross in what would become known as the “Swiss Initiative”, “regarding the need for intergovernmental dialogue on the application of [international humanitarian law] and human rights law to PMSCs.” This process involved a two-pronged approach, with one aspect focusing on industry commitment to establishing an international “code of conduct” for firms, while the other aspect examined efforts to clarify existing international law governing these firms. The resultant document, issued by the Swiss and ICRC in September of 2008 on, “Pertinent International Legal Obligations and Good Practices for Related States to Operations of Private Military and Security Companies during Armed Conflict,” would become known to the rest of the world more commonly as the Montreux Document

As James Cockayne points out, “over the course of two meetings (16–17 January 2006, in Zurich, and 13–14 November 2006, in Montreux), 16 states, the European Commission, the ICRC, the British Association of Private Security Companies (BAPSC), the International Peace Operations Association (IPOA), and civil society and academic experts began to identify elements of practice that might be recommended to states and industry.” While the participants acknowledged that there were existing international obligations for firms and a patchwork of international and State laws governing PMSC conduct, “some states sounded a note of caution about the proposed ‘standards’ or ‘elements of recommended regulatory practices’ section, arguing that the very different approaches to regulation at the national level…made comparison between such approaches problematic.” Consequently, these states, “signaled that they would not agree to a document that established binding standards or singled some practice out as the ‘best’—or even as ‘recommended’. Others went further, claiming that it might, in fact, prove difficult to identify any relevant regulatory practice—so calls for elaboration of best practice were perhaps premature. As a result, participants began talking of the second section of the proposed output as an elaboration of ‘good practice’, even as civil society actors cautioned that this risked watering down the authority of any output from the Initiative.” 

This process ultimately led to a diluted end-product, as could be predicted. While widespread State buy-in is certainly desirable, the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) and the ICRC adopted a more, “conservative approach to the statement of state obligations with the extensive involvement of governmental and non-governmental experts in the development of ‘good practices’.” Although the Swiss FDFA and ICRC were careful to emphasize that the Initiative was not intended to legitimize the industry in any way, José L. Gómez del Prado argues that instead, the resulting document, “stamp[s] its seal of legitimacy on PMSCs,” as the Montreux Document in reality, “recognises de facto this new industry and the military and security services it provides. It legitmises the services the industry provides, which still remain unregulated and unmonitored.”

The Montreux Document is organized into distinct sets of ‘good practices’ tailored for different entities involved in private military and security companies (PMSCs). These include contracting states, which directly engage PMSCs and subcontractors, territorial states where PMSCs operate, and home states where PMSCs are registered, incorporated, or have their principal place of management. However, the document’s impact is inherently limited due to its non-binding nature. The Montreux Document explicitly states in its Preface that, “this document is not a legally binding instrument,” watering down its potential efficacy. 

The development of the Montreux Document coincided with the creation of the International Code of Conduct for Private Security Service Providers (ICoC) and the subsequent establishment of the International Code of Conduct Association (ICoCA). The ICoCA is a multi-stakeholder initiative composed of industry firms, select governments, and a few human rights advocacy non-governmental organizations, tasked with overseeing the implementation of the code. This initiative aimed to establish voluntary industry standards for behavior and involved industry associations such as the International Peace Operations Association (IPOA), the British Association of Private Security Companies (BAPSC), as well as individual business leaders, along with the Swiss, UK, and U.S. governments.

Despite this development, as Christopher Kinsey and Col. Christopher Mayer wrote in a 2022 piece for King’s College London’s Defence-in-Depth early last year, “participation in the ICoC has been less successful than the initial enthusiasm for the Code might have suggested,” as, “at its height, only 115 Private Security Companies were members, and as of December 2021, membership stood at just 66 PSCs.” Moreover, Kinsey and Mayer note that, “government participation has also failed to meet expectations,” as,” only seven of the 58 governments that participate in the Montreux Document and its Forum are members of the ICoCA,” and, “of those seven members, none are developing nations which are typically most at risk from non-state armed groups.”

The central idea underpinning the creation of the Code of Conduct—that the industry, driven by the desire for continued Western governmental contracts, would voluntarily regulate itself to avoid human-rights related incidents that could jeopardize future contracts—is ultimately a flawed one, however. As the events of the 2008 financial crisis should have clearly demonstrated, the neoliberal, laissez-faire attitude towards the regulation of important industries is a clear recipe for disaster. Figures such as the former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who said just a year before the 2008 financial crisis that, “thanks to globaliation, policy decisions in the US have been largely replaced by global market forces,” exemplified this neoliberal belief in the overwhelming power of markets to deliver benefits for all as long as they are left to their own devices. 

However, champions of industry self-regulation such as Greenspan recognized too late the error of this way of thinking, conceding in testimony before the House Government Oversight and Reform Committee in the immediate aftermath of the financial collapse that, “those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders equity, myself especially, are in a state of shocked disbelief. ” This acknowledgment by Greenspan illustrates the recognition of the failures within his industry to self-regulate, which ultimately resulted in an explosion of risky behavior that led to the subprime mortgage meltdown.

Even when confronted with the full extent of self-regulations’ failures, a neoliberal such as Greenspan could not resist seeing this failure as an isolated incident, saying before the same Committee that, “I suspect that we are going to find that this is a very chastened market and that many of the problems that we’ve observed during the euphoria stage of the [industry] expansion will not be back if—at any time if ever.” But despite the former Fed Chair’s prognostication, the industry continued acting recklessly, whether it was through the LIBOR manipulation scandal or the foreign exchange manipulation scandal, demonstrating the dangers that come with industry self-regulation.

Benjamin P. Edwards, from the UNLV William S. Boyd School of Law, explored the premise of self-regulation within the financial services industry in 2017. He noted that the main premise behind self-regulation is that, “the industry has a strong incentive to police itself in order to maintain its quality.” However, Edwards cautioned that “profit-seeking industry self-regulators will likely define ‘misbehavior’ as actions that impose costs or reduce the profits of the industry as a whole—not necessarily as activities that reduce investor welfare or generate costs elsewhere.” He notes, for example, that self-regulating manufacturers may not limit pollution because their distant customers may not bear the local environmental costs resulting from their operations. This same issue is evident within the PMSC industry, as industry-led initiatives like the Montreux Document do strive to uphold a certain standard of overall quality. However, the profit-seeking pressures faced by industry actors tend to prioritize punishing behavior that impacts the industry’s bottom line, rather than embracing rules and regulations that restrict firms’ ability to contract with clients who may not prioritize human rights and international humanitarian law as much as Western audiences do.

Just as banks’ own, “customers may even prefer pollution-spewing factories because they pay less for goods and bear no liability for the environmental cleanup,” many of the PMSC industry’s biggest growth clients, from the United Arab Emirates to Russia or China may not have the same human rights concerns regarding the industry as do many experts in the West. Christopher Spearin highlighted this issue in his article for the National Defense University’s PRISM in June 2020 when he noted that, “due to the aggressive bent of some Chinese non-state actors, the resource-centric elements of China’s relationship with Africa and the BRI, and the fact that China is not a signatory to the Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights, one could envision a more provocative and assertive China following a similar path,” to that of Russia, which has used its PMSCs such as Wagner to further the state’s extractive interests in Africa despite frequent human rights violations by these firms in securing thsoe extractive rights. 

 In the end, although industry best practices serve as an interim measure towards establishing binding international regulations, they cannot serve as the sole guiding principle for the industry. The Montreux Document’s approximately seventy recommendations, lacking any meaningful enforcement mechanisms, remain mere suggestions without any legal authority.  While the U.S. Department of Defense has established requirements for adherence to industry standards like ANSI/ASIS PSC.1-2012 or ISO 18788, which “implement the recommended good practices of the Montreux Document,”incorporate the recommended good practices of the Montreux Document, not all countries have implemented similar requirements. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the U.S. Department of Defense does not, “not require membership, certification and oversight,” by the International Code of Conduct for Private Security Service Providers’ Association (ICoCA).

Furthermore, according to Kinsey and Mayer’s analysis in their piece for Defence-in-Depth, it is alarming to note that, “there are 27 ongoing armed conflicts in the world today, at least 19 of which include activity by armed contractors,” highlighting the worrisome lack of tangible outcomes from the Montreux and ICoC processes. They also point out the case of Yemen, where the, “Ministry of Interior and Trade recognises 35 domestic companies that meet the ICoC definition of a PSC, as well as the activity of foreign PMSCs,” despite neither the country nor its domestic firms being members of the International Code of Conduct Association (ICoCA). This raises concerns as Kinsey and Mayer argue that recent amendments to the ICoC, broadening the scope and definition of security services, may, “have the effect of opening the political and normative gates to legitimizing combat provider organizations such as Russia’s quasi-mercenary group Wagner and the South African PMC Specialised Tasks, Training, Equipment and Protection (STTEP).” Kinsey and Mayer caution that, “outsourcing this type of activity without sufficient state oversight and control also carries considerable risks to human rights.” 

Finally, as Raymond Saner submits: “The PMSC industry has presented an astonishing ability to protect itself from regulatory sanctions by showing evidence of entrepreneurial efforts, such as the creation of the new ISO standard described above. This suggests that the industry has the ability to fend off criticism and create a new quasi-regulatory space that it can use to counter attempts to tighten regulation through new inter-governmental initiatives such as the Montreux Document and the related ICoC described below. Furthermore, in Nihal El Mquirimi’s Navigating in a Grey Zone, the author points to a quote from Raymond Saner who argues that: 

“The PMSC industry has presented an astonishing ability to protect itself from regulatory sanctions by showing evidence of entrepreneurial efforts, such as the creation of the new ISO standard described above. This suggests that the industry has the ability to fend off criticism and create a new quasi-regulatory space that it can use to counter attempts to tighten regulation through new inter-governmental initiatives such as the Montreux Document and the related ICoC…”

But despite the industry’s best efforts, there have been attempts to create stronger restrictions on PMSC firms’ behavior. 

The UN Working Group on the Use of Mercenaries and Work Towards a Binding International Convention

In 2005, the UN’s Commission on Human Rights and Human Rights Council recommended the formation of a Working Group on the Use of Mercenaries (WGUM). The WGUM consists of five independent experts entrusted with several objectives: presenting proposals on new standards and guidelines to protect the right of peoples to self-determination when facing threats posed by mercenaries; soliciting contributions from governments, intergovernmental, and nongovernmental organizations on matters related to its mandate; monitoring mercenary-related activities worldwide; identifying emerging issues and trends concerning mercenaries and their activities, particularly their impact on human rights; and conducting a study on the effects of private companies offering military assistance, consultancy, and security services on the international market, specifically on the enjoyment of human rights, notably the right of peoples to self-determination. What’s more, as Saeed Mokbil, Chairperson-Rapporteur for the WGUM argued in 2018, “mercenary-related activities undermine [Sustainable Development Goal] 16.2 to end abuse, exploitation, trafficking, and all forms of violence against and torture of children.” 

Since the WGUM’s formation in 2005, it has studied reports of mercenary activities and, through its thematic reports, provided key analysis of ongoing developments in the industry. Moreover, the UN’s own report, “Mercenarism and Private Military and Security Companies,” from 2018 notes that, “the Working Group has maintained the position that the most effective way to regulate private military and security companies is through an international legally binding instrument,” even if it has also recognized the importance of such self-regulatory regimes as the Montreux Document. 

Unfortunately, however, the Working Group received little support from Western governments in working towards that goal. Although the Working Group had identified over a decade ago, “that there is a regulatory legal vacuum covering the activities of PMSCs and a lack of common standards for the registration, and licensing of these companies as well as for the vetting and training of their staff and the safekeeping of weapons,” there has been insufficient Western support for the Working Group’s attempts to create a Draft Convention due to a combination of Western states fearing that the proposed Convention would place too stringent limits on the industry and a belief that existing industry codes of conduct suffice as far as industry guardrails go. 

Still, the proposed Draft Convention—which has been in the works for over five years at the UN Open-Ended Intergovernmental Working Group on PMSCs (IGWG) where primary responsibility for developing the draft shifted after that body’s creation in September 2017—offers numerous advantages and could ideally serve as the foundation for a binding international regime governing the PMSC industry going forward. However, despite the proposed convention having, “attracted support from a range of developing countries, notably Cuba and South Africa,” the proposed drafts have, “largely failed to receive support from Western countries, which host most of the PMSC industry.” 

According to the most recent progress report from the IGWG, the proposed draft convention is still undergoing revisions by IGWG members. However, representatives from the European Union, Switzerland, Russia, Mexico, Japan, and the UK have all expressed a strong belief that the Montreux Document and ICoC are sufficient frameworks for ensuring industry compliance with international human rights law.  They have cast doubt on the necessity of a UN-led binding international standard for regulating industry behavior. This widespread skepticism towards a binding international convention undermines the overall process and diminishes the likelihood that the IGWG, in its current form, will produce a document that meets the requirements of Western states, which hold a financial stake in the continued prosperity of PMSC firms.

While this skepticism is understandable to some extent, it is imperative to overcome it in order for the world to assert control over the actions of private military and security companies. According to former WGUM member José L. Gómez del Prado, there are several reasons why a binding international instrument to regulate PMSC conduct is necessary, starting with the fact that there currently exists a, “regulatory legal vacuum covering the activities of PMSCs and a lack of common standards for the registration, and licensing of these companies as well as for the vetting and training of their staff and the safekeeping of weapons.” Furthermore,PMSC services cannot be treated as, “ordinary commercial commodities that can be controlled through self-regulation initiatives,” as their functions involve a range of military and security services normally restricted to the state. Finally, del Prado argues that existing international definitions of who is a mercenary are all too limiting to encompass all of those working in the PMSC industry. Therefore, the international community must develop a new, binding, and all-encompassing definition of a mercenary in order to effectively regulate firms’ behavior.

International Standards/Bodies Governing PMSCs/Source: https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/2022-04/PB_27-22_Mquirmi.pdf#page=4
International Standards/Bodies Governing PMSCs/Source: https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/2022-04/PB_27-22_Mquirmi.pdf#page=4

The United States’ (Failed) Attempts to Regulate the Industry 

As Michael Scheimer argues in a 2009 paper for the American University International Law Review, “in the absence of solid international support for the Article 47 and U.N. Convention definitions to apply to [PMSCs], the only recourse for [PMSC] regulation is domestic regimes…However, even U.S. domestic law has been revealed to be insufficient…” 

While the United States does have some of its own guidelines on the use of PMSC firms, Transparency International’s Michael Picard and Colby Goodman argue that the U.S. still has, “key gaps in regulation and transparency of US PMSC’s contracts with foreign governments.” The authors suggest that while the U.S. State Department’s Director of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC), “requires US PMSCs to obtain their approval (via a license) to provide some types of PMSC-related services…these regulations, however, have wide gaps in oversight when US PMSCs or US persons working with foreign PMSCs seek to provide direct combat support to foreign entities abroad.” Moreover, the authors state that, “there are some critical gaps in US oversight of PMSCs who contract with the US Government,” in that differing US agencies maintain different controls as well as varying degrees of oversight over PMSC firms. 

Finally, Picard and Goodman contend that U.S. government efforts to address the challenge of regulating U.S.-based PMSCs, “will not be fully effective unless [the U.S.] pushes foreign countries to adopt stronger national laws on their PMSCs,” as many U.S.-based firms hire employees from all around the globe, and many of the countries where these personnel come from, “have not signed or implemented key non-binding international agreements, such as the Montreux Document and the International Code of Conduct,” leaving huge gaps in international efforts to regulate the industry. 

Additionally, as José L. Gómez del Prado contends, the report of the Senate Armed Services Committee, “Inquiry into the Role and Oversight of Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan,” approved in October 2010, reveals the threat that security contractors operating without adequate government supervision had posed to the U.S. mission in Afghanistan. Furthermore, P.W. Singer highlights the alarming conduct of Blackwater personnel during the March 2004 Fallujah incident when, “without any coordination with the local Marine unit, a Blackwater convoy drove through Fallujah, was ambushed, and the 4 contractors killed,” an incident so strongly redolent of the 1990s Black Hawk Down incident in Mogadishu that prompted the Bush administration to launch the First Battle of Fallujah. 

More concerningly, in a subsequent wrongful death lawsuit filed against the PMSC by the mothers of the four dead contractors, it was alleged that the firm, “had rushed together a team of 4 men who had never trained together and sent them out without armored vehicles and even good directions.” The lawsuit claimed that, “Blackwater had just won the contract and reportedly wanted to impress the client, a Kuwaiti holding company, that it could get the job done,” thus illustrating the inherent dangers that arise when combining the concept of shareholder primacy with the private use of military force in conflict zones. 

Further complicating the situation, despite industry claims that the use of contractors in America’s recent conflicts aimed to reduce costs for taxpayers, the Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan’s report, “At What Risk? Correcting Over-Reliance on Contractors in Contingency Operations,” revealed a troubling finding. Between 2001 and 2001, over $177 billion was allocated to contracts and grants supporting U.S. operations in the two countries, not to mention an additional approximately $208 billion projected for the period between 2009 and 2018. Shockingly, the report concluded that, “widespread and repeated instances of waste, fraud, and abuse suggest that tens of billions of taxpayers’ dollars have failed to reach their intended use in Iraq and Afghanistan.” 

“Furthermore, in a May 2011 Congressional Research Service report by Moshe Schwartz, it is highlighted that Congress had various options available to mitigate the potential negative impact of PMSCs on U.S. operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other regions. These options included the clearer definition of the roles PMSC personnel may assume during military operations, such as: : a) prohibitions on security contractors being deployed in combat zones; b) restrictions on their PMSC use to just static site security; c) restricting armed contractors to static security work only, with the exception of local nationals; and d) requiring a majority of personnel used for convoy security to be uninformed personnel in order to retain DOD command and control of such potentially dangerous operations.

Largely in response to the Commission on Wartime Contracting report, Illinois Representative Jan Schakowsky and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders announced plans to reintroduce their Stop Outsourcing Security Act, which aimed to prohibit the use of private contractors for military, security, law enforcement, intelligence, and armed rescue functions due to instances of fraud, waste, abuse—as well as the events of Nisour Square and other human rights violations committed by PMSC personnel. The bill would have required that the U.S. military train partner troops and militaries, as well as to provide security for U.S. diplomats around the world. Furthermore, the legislation would have subjected contracts exceeding $5 million to Congressional oversight, as well as the total number of contractors employed, and the total costs of the contracts. Moreover, it would require firms accepting large U.S. government contracts to disclose a description of any disciplinary actions taken against contractor personnel. 

However, despite gaining thirty Democratic cosponsors, the bill languished in the House and has not been resurrected since. Although it was not the final attempt to regulate the Private Military and Security Contractor (PMSC) industry in the United States, the Stop Outsourcing Security Act was the most ambitious legislation proposed to restrict the use of such firms in U.S. operations. The failure to advance the legislation represented a missed opportunity for the U.S. to take meaningful action in limiting PMSC use in future operations. Nevertheless, it does not eliminate the possibility of doing so in the future. In fact, if the United States genuinely desires to witness an improvement in industry behavior, it must make the decision to lead on the issue by enacting comprehensive national legislation that governs the use of PMSCs.

While the U.S. does retain some ability to punish misbehavior by U.S. PMSC personnel through instruments such as the Defense Base Act, the Military Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act (MEJA) and the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ)—which was amended in the 2007 NDAA to place contractors accompanying the military in the field under the Uniform Code not just in times of war but in contingency operations—the laws do not encompass all of the actions taken by such firms in conflict zones, resulting in an inability to hold offenders accountable for their actions.

As Reema Shah highlights in a 2014 article for the Yale Law Journal, although MEJA was expanded in 2004 to  enable the prosecution of contractors supporting DOD missions abroad for crimes that would warrant over one year of imprisonment if committed within the U.S., “MEJA and the UCMJ can only be used to prosecute individuals.”  Additionally, as was articulated in an August 2008 Congressional Research Service report by Jennifer K. Elsea, Moshe Schwartz, and Kennon H. Nakamura, “depending on how broadly DOD’s mission is construed, MEJA does not appear to cover civilian and contract employees of agencies engaged in their own operations overseas. It also does not cover nationals of or persons ordinarily residing in the host nation.”

Moreover, as the 2008 CRS report accurately points out, “while [MEJA] appears to cover other foreign nationals working under covered contracts, it does not appear to extend federal jurisdiction over crimes not expressly defined as covering conduct occurring within the [special maritime and territorial jurisdiction]…For example, it might not be available as a jurisdictional basis to prosecute non-U.S. national contractors for war crimes under 18 U.S.C. § 2441.” This limitation exists despite the fact that, “the workforce of the US PMSC industry is typically ex-military and heavily internationalized,” as while most firms are owned and operated by military vets, “such companies will typically assign Western managers to oversee [third-country nationals] or local nationals, who are cheaper to staff the contract,” resulting in a much lower level of contractor oversight than if the operations were being carried out by U.S. nationals. 

As a result of this, by 2008, “very few successful prosecutions involving DOD contractors in Iraq under MEJA [had] been reported,” with the few successful examples given being a contractor who pled guilty to the possession of child pornography in 2007 and the prosecution of another contractor for sexually assaulting a female soldier at Tallil Air Force Base in 2004. 

Furthermore, while the 2007 NDAA expanded the UCMJ to cover civilians during contingency operations, it too has been seldom used to prosecute malfeasance. As Raymond Lu, Britta Redwood, and Jacqueline Van De Velde note in their article, “Inherently Governmental Functions and the Role of Private Military Contractors,” in the period between 2006 and when the authors published in 2017, “only one individual has been prosecuted under this revised statute: an interpreter who stabbed a coworker,” as, “prosecutions have been hampered by ambiguities about how directly connected to the military PMSCs must be in order to qualify as ‘serving or accompanying an armed force’ and whether ‘in the field’ extends to non-traditional battlefields.” Moreover, the authors acknowledge that, “trying civilian contractors in military courts remains highly controversial, as it threatens to erode protections normally afforded to criminal defendants under the U.S. constitution.” 

In light of these challenges, efforts were made to strengthen existing U.S. legislation, including the MEJA and UCMJ, to address gaps in prosecuting criminal violations committed by U.S. citizen contractors employed by non-Department of Defense agencies. As a 2012 CRS report from Charles Doyle notes, a proposed Civilian Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act (CEJA – H.R. 2136) would have established a new 18 U.S.C. § 3272, “outlawing conduct outside the United States by anyone ‘employed by or accompanying any department or agency of the United States other than the Department of Defense,’ when the conduct would be criminal if committed within the United States or within its special maritime and territorial jurisdiction.” 

The proposed legislation would have also, “reach[ed] the crimes of a wider range of non-Defense Department employees, contractors, and attendants than MEJA,” which, “reaches the crimes of a few.” However, as Lu, Redwood, and Van De Velde acknowledge, the idea of, “trying civilian contractors in military courts remains highly controversial, as it threatens to erode protections normally afforded to criminal defendants under the U.S. constitution.” As a result, the 2014 legislation ultimately died in Congress, and has yet to be taken up again.. 

As a further result of these failures, as Cedric Ryngaert notes in, “Litigating Abuses Committed by Private Military Companies,” while opportunities to pursue PMSCs through criminal and civil litigation do exist, “obstacles—whether legal, procedural, political, practical, or otherwise—to successful litigation seem to be abound.” The most obvious issues in the field of criminal law, as Ryngaert highlights, are that, “some violations do not amount to crimes over which the hiring state can exercise extraterritorial jurisdiction,” and that, “concerns over the sovereignty of foreign nations may arise, criminal trials of civilian contractors under military law may prove illegal, corporations may not be held criminally liable, and state prosecutors may not be particularly keen on initiating prosecution against [those PMSCs that are] contributing to the war effort.” 

Moreover, despite, as Ryngaert argues, “in view of those obstacles, it is not surprising that the gaze of the accountability advocates has turned to tort law, it is not just the application of criminal statutes to PMSC personnel that has proven difficult, as Lu, Redwood, and Van De Velde note that, “private civil suits against U.S. PMSCs face similarly daunting challenges,” as while, “plaintiffs have attempted to use the Alien Tort Statute (ATS) and common law torts to hold U.S.-based PMSCs accountable…PMSC defendants have successfully raised jurisdictional challenges and asserted broadly defined immunities to shield themselves from liability.” They specifically emphasize that, “the D.C. Circuit—the country’s most influential appeals court—has dismissed ATS suits brought by families of victims who were tortured and murdered at Abu Ghraib, holding that the conduct of PMSCs did not qualify as ‘state action’ and thus did not violate settled norms of international law that primarily regulate governments.” 

What’s more, Lu, Redwood, and Van De Velde maintain, “PMSC defendants have also defeated civil suits by invoking immunities rooted in their contractual relationships with the U.S. government,” with the U.S. federal district court in Al Shimari v. CACI Premier Technology, Inc. dismissing, “claims brought by Abu Ghraib victims against interrogators employed by CACI , reasoning that the U.S. military chain of command exercised ‘plenary’ and ‘direct’ control over interrogators at the prison and that a decision on the merits of the claim ‘would require the judiciary to question actual, sensitive judgements made by the military,’” resulting in the ultimate dismissal of twenty claims alleging torture, war crimes, and cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment (CDIT) by CACI and its personnel against prisoners at the facility.. 

Also limiting plaintiff’s ability to go after PMSCs engaged in malfeasance is the fact that, “some PMSC defendants have escaped liability by arguing that any abuses committed in Iraq and Afghanistan were part and parcel of the U.S. military’s ‘combatant activities’ during a time of war and thus protected by sovereign immunity.” Indeed, in Saleh v. Titan Corp., Lu, Redwood, and Van De Velde highlight that, “the D.C. Circuit extended this reasoning to dismiss a lawsuit brought by victims of torture at Abu Ghraib against two PMSCs, holding that the companies had acted as extension of the military in conducting interrogations and were consequently entitled to immunity,” even after the court had acknowledged that CACI em ployees had, “operated under a dual command structure in which company site managers had independent authority to halt abusive interrogations.” 

However, going beyond existing legal barriers to prosecuting PMSCs under U.S. law is the simple fact that, “more broadly, both criminal and civil cases against PMSCs have suffered from evidentiary obstacles,” as the simple act of obtaining physical evidence and witness testimony about events that have taken place in an active conflict zone is something that is much easier said than done. As Lu, Redwood, and Van De Velde emphasize, “procuring witnesses for a trial may be particularly burdensome, as prosecutors or plaintiffs must persuade them to testify, provide for their security and (potentially) the safety of their family, and arrange travel. For example, U.S. prosecutors were able to convict a CIA contractor for assaulting an Afghan detainee in 2007, only because a key witness was willing and able to travel to the United States and other witnesses were U.S. citizens who could be subpoenaed.” 

When coupled with the lack of enforcement systems in the Montreux Document and the International Code of Conduct for Private Security Providers, it becomes evident that there is a troubling absence of actionable legislation governing PMSC activities. Consequently, it is crucial for the U.S. government to explore potential avenues and embrace its role as a global leader to address this issue. One possible approach is to develop comprehensive regulations specifically tailored to the United States, while also encouraging the European Union—a body aspiring to be a leader in global rule-setting—to adopt similar measures. By taking these steps, both the U.S. and Europe can contribute to establishing robust global rules, standards, and norms that guide not only the private military and security industry, but technology, trade, and economic development, as well.

Towards a Binding International Convention Governing the PMSC Industry 

As far back as 2011, Moshe Schwartz highlighted, “the perception that DOD and other government agencies are deploying PSCs who abuse and mistreat people can fan anti-American sentiment and strengthen insurgents, even when no abuses are taking place.” In his piece, Schwartz points to a paper from Col. Bobby A. Towery who, writing back in 2006 for the U.S. Army War College said that, “after [the U.S. departure from the country], the potential exists for us to leave Iraq with paramilitary organizations that are well organized, financed, trained, and equipped.” Towery continued that these organizations were, “primarily motivated by profit and only answer to an Iraqi government official with limited to no control over their actions.” As such, Towery concludes that, “these factors potentially make private security contractors a destabilizing influence in the future of Iraq.” 

Moreover, as Sean McFate notes in his own 2020 paper for the WGUM, “Mercenaries and Privatized Warfare: Current Trends and Developments,” while, “thousands of mercenaries got their start in Iraq or Afghanistan,” when those wars were wound down, those same mercenaries, “set out looking for new conflict markets (AKA war zones) around the world, enlarging the wars there.” Indeed, the market expanded so much and so fast that some American ex-soldiers even ended up running a targeted assassination program in Yemen for the UAE as the Obama administration continued its support for the Saudi proxy war in that country despite the bloodshed. 

Compounding the continued growth of the industry outside of the U.S. is the fact that, as McFate notes, “the demand for overt or ‘legitimate’ private security firms has severely dipped since the U.S. left Iraq and has reduced its footprint in Afghanistan. The situation is driving the entire industry underground, as they seek new opportunities from clients not interested in transparency.”

Further complicating the private military and security landscape is the fact that, as Berenike Prem concludes in a 2021 paper for Contemporary Security Policy, multi-stakeholder initiatives such as the ICoC and the Montreux Document, “are heavily biased towards those actors that accept PMSCs as normal and legitimate security actors; impose constraints on the behavior of their NGO participants; marginalize dissenting voices; and legitimize the status quo of security privatization.” Prem argues that efforts such as Montreux and the ICoC were all simply efforts to avoid the limits of a proposed WGUM Draft Convention, which, “would have amounted to nothing less than a partial ban on PMSC activities.” According to Prem’s analysis, “the efforts of the Working Group…were therefore met with resistance from the major home and contracting states of PMSCs,” which were, “anxious to retain their flexibility in using,” such firms in future operations. 

As such, Prem contends, countries like the U.S., UK, and Canada—which were hostile to the very notion of binding international legislation—instead turned to the Swiss Initiative and industry-led efforts like the ICoC, as such multi-stakeholder initiatives are largely performative as, “certification and monitoring produce already what they seek to achieve: the creation of the ‘compliant’ and ‘socially responsible PMSC—irrespective of how these companies perform on the ground.” Furthermore, while the ICoC Association was formed with the goal of giving the ICoC some real teeth, Prem suggests that, “as much as the ICoC implied a wholly new level of scrutiny and constraints to which the industry was subjected, it allowed PMSCs to retain the ownership over their fate.” 

Further diluting the efficacy of industry self-regulation was the fact that the NGO community was largely sidelined as a, “growing pro-privatization consensus,” which has been, “achieved by marginalizing actors which have taken strong and non-pragmatic positions,” on industry regulation. Most damningly, Prem points to the statement of one PMSC industry multi-stakeholder participant who, illustrating contempt for the very idea that the entire industry might need some curtailing, said that: 

“There are organizations [that] accept that there is a PMSC industry and there-fore seek […] to help that industry perform in a proper fashion. And there are some NGOs who would still almost deny the fact that there is an industry and would like to see it all closed down. That sort of position I don’t think is strictly helpful because, to my mind, it’s not going to happen. […] So whether people like it or not, to be frank, […] the industry is there to stay and the important thing is making sure that those companies that deliver services to a high standard are recognized doing so […]”

As Prem submits, in many—if not most—discussions regarding industry regulation, “expert status accrues to actors which take ‘realistic,’ ‘pragmatic,’ and ‘constructive’ positions as opposed to those exhibiting ‘unrealistic,’ ‘dogmatic,’ and ‘counterproductive views,’” with the important caveat that what determines “pragmatic” or “counterproductive” is often simply defined as those who are willing to accept the status quo, keeping those who want more robust regulation on the outside of these negotiations. More troublingly, these multi-stakeholder initiatives often end up co-opting more critical voices who, endeavoring to be seen as “reasonable” and “productive”, often end up blunting their criticisms so as not to be seen as “unreasonable” outsiders who are likely to become marginalized in future talks. 

As Andrea Schneiker and Jutta Joachim suggest in, “Revisiting Global Governance in Multistakeholder Initiatives: Club Governance Based on Ideational Pre Alignments,” in such multi-stakeholder initiatives, “the individual entrepreneurs who represent the collective actors…can be viewed as a club that decides which other civil society actors are relevant and will be allowed to join their circle and participate in the multistakeholder initiatives.” Thus, such multi-stakeholder initiatives, “while often viewed as opportunities for more societal participation,” in actuality, “in fact silence already marginalised positions and groups even further, and in doing so reproduce existing hierarchies and power relations on a global scale.”

In a similar vein, Berenike Prem contends that although NGOs like Amnesty International or Human Rights First were initially skeptical of the industry, they have since shifted their stance, acknowledging the industry’s potential contribution to ensuring respect for human rights and praising its commitment to regulation.

Furthermore, as Schneiker and Joachim note in their Revisiting Global Governance in Multistakeholder Initiatives, “although the standards set by multistakeholder initiatives might not be mandatory, if states decide to endorse them they can become legitimate and gain prescriptive status,” meaning that U.S. support of documents like Montreux and the ICoC have a strong normative power, entrenching these industry-formulated guidelines as the key mechanisms to govern the industry. 

Therefore, if existing industry standards-setting efforts and national legislation are insufficient to curtail the increasingly clandestine PMSC industry, then the international community—starting with the United States—needs to take seriously the prospect of creating a binding set of international standards to govern these firms’ behavior. While a complete prohibition on the use of PMSCs would be the most desirable outcome—as these firms’ actions frequently, and troublingly, erode the state’s monopoly on the legitimate use of force—the unanimity required at the UN level to achieve such a ban would likely be hard to obtain given the objections raised by the EU, U.S., and other Western states during the process to elaborate the content of an international regulatory framework to protect human rights and ensure accountability for violations and abuses relating to the activities of PMSCs. 

Noting the many critical gaps in U.S. oversight of PMSC firms that contract with the U.S. government, Amnesty International’s Michael Picard and Colby Goodman argue that, “the United States can address these gaps,” not only by, “pushing more countries to agree to the ICoC,” but by working within the IGWG, “to establish a new international framework for PMSCs.”

To that end, a stronger international regulatory regime for the PMSC industry would likely come on multiple tracks: a U.S.-led and -centered effort to increase Congressional and Executive Branch oversight of PMSC firms that compete for U.S. government contracts; a Western-led effort by the main PMSC home states such as the U.S., UK, Canada, that addresses issues of the transnational responsibility of home states to ensure, “accountability for any extraterritorial violations of the right to life, including those committed or contributed to by their nationals or by businesses domiciled in their territory or jurisdiction,” as advocated by Nihal El Mquirimi and outlined in the African Commission on Human and People’s Rights’ 2015 General Comment No. 3 On the African Charter On Human And Peoples’ Rights: The Right To Life. Finally, there would also have to be an effort at the United Nations to agree on a binding set of international standards governing PMSC behavior, mostly likely through the existing WGUM or IGWG formats. 

U.S.-led Efforts

So far, there have been few major U.S. efforts to address the rapid expansion of the PMSC industry. As former federal prosecutor Will Mackie noted back in a 2021 piece for War on the Rocks, “no U.S. law currently restricts or prohibits U.S. persons from serving in a foreign mercenary force,” and the U.S. government is similarly unrestricted from hiring, “private businesses that provide security services…like those used in Iraq and Afghanistan.” 

However, if the U.S. finally decides to strengthen its oversight regime governing PMSC firms, there are a number of avenues that decision makers should consider pursuing, beginning with efforts to improve DOD oversight of contracting processes. While, as Picard and Goodman point out, Section 862 of the 2008 NDAA requires the Secretary of Defense to establish training and vetting guidelines for all U.S. government agencies that contract with PMSC firms in certain combat zones, as well as to create a registry for contractor personnel and equipment and adding certain contract clauses to the Federal Acquisition Regulation System, both DOD and the State Department have run up against various staffing issues when trying to implement these regulations. Moreover, despite one of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, “key provisions [prohibiting] Americans from training foreign militaries without State Department approval,” as Reema Shah points out, “this restriction on the activities of U.S. citizens is rarely enforced, because the Directorate of Defense Trade Controls, which is responsible for monitoring, is understaffed and overwhelmed with managing arms exports.” 

As Picard and Goodman establish, in the period between 2017-2020, the U.S. Department of Defense eliminated its Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for Program Support, which was in charge of interagency cooperation, “to ensure that DOD contractor policy and regulations were consistent with the overall US national security strategy.” Furthermore, the authors note that DOD had, “reduced the main DoD policy office tasked with PMSC contracting in combat zones to two civilian staff (with contractor support).” As a result of this downsizing of DOD’s oversight functions it, “led to a breakdown of critical oversight functions, such as the verification that senior commanders had developed and implemented PMSC contracting guidance in their areas of responsibility.” 

Additionally, the authors point to a 2019 report from the State Department Inspector General which found that the State Department suffered from an overall manpower shortage, resulting in gaps in oversight. The authors further argue that even when the State and Defense Departments have the personnel to accomplish these tasks, “there continues to be key gaps in how [the Departments] vet subcontractors,” pointing to a GAO review that found that, “12 percent of PMSC personnel hired as security guards by the Defense Department were from companies that did not have proper certification for this role,” as U.S. regulations only requires prime contractors to submit their first-tier subcontractors to DOD when bidding for contracts, which frequently results in predictable cases of fraud, waste, and abuse and an inability on the behalf of the government to really understand who is carrying out these contracted tasks.. 

More chillingly, as Sean McFate’s 2019 monograph argues, “U.S. outsourcing of security has normalized the market for force, inspiring warlords and other conflict entrepreneurs to start their own private military companies,” and, as a result, by the end stages of the U.S.’ involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, “most of the private military companies operating [there were] local and less picky than their U.S. counterparts about whom they work for and what they do.” The result of this overall lack of scrutiny towards who the U.S. was ultimately engaging as subcontractors resulted, in Afghanistan, in a situation where, by 2010, “the principal private security subcontractors on the [U.S.’ “Host-Nation Trucking” contracts—a $2.16 billion contract split amongst eight Afghan, Middle Eastern, and U.S. firms] are warlords, strongmen, commanders, and militia leaders who compete with the Afghan central government for power and authority,” as was documented in a 2010 Congressional report examining extortion and corruption in the U.S. supply chain in Afghanistan. 

Moreover, despite the 2008 NDAA mandating that the Defense Department issue a new DOD Instruction on Private Security Contractors, which led to the introduction of new DOD guidelines requiring PMSC firms to obtain ANSI/ASIS PSC.1 accreditation, and the State Department’s insistence on ICoCA membership and ANSI/ASIS PSC.1 accreditation as a prerequisite for firms to receive contracts, it has not been enough to result in real changes to how the industry operates. Specifically, Sorcha MacLeod and Rebecca DeWinter-Schmitt have brought attention to the inherent flaws in these mostly industry-led, soft-law initiatives such as ANSI/ASIS PSC.1 and related ISO 18788 standards. These flaws hinder their effectiveness in serving as truly useful means to monitor and regulate the PMSC industry.

As MacLeod and DeWinter-Schmitt argue, while these standards are an attempt to operationalize the norms of, “human rights and humanitarian law principles at the heart of the ICoC,” in reality, “what certification is meant to attest to in theory and what it really evidences in practice may diverge, which in turn affects perceptions of the sufficiency of certification as an indicator of norm compliance.” As the authors note, for ICoCA members, certification is a two-step process whereby firms first choose a commercial certification body to carry out auditing and certification, and those certification bodies are in turn vetted by National Accreditation Bodies to ensure that everyone is behaving in an above-board manner. 

Nonetheless, MacLeod and DeWinter-Schmitt maintain that, in their research, “instances of opacity throughout the certification process inhibit access to complete data. In particular, the agreements between [PMSCs] and the [certification bodies] auditing them represent a contractual relationship between two private actors involving information deemed proprietary and confidential to both,” resulting in a situation where the certification bodies fail to publicly disclose their auditing methodologies out of a belief that they are a major competitive advantage relative to competing certification firms. As a result of this lack of transparency, MacLeod has elsewhere described the resultant certification system as being merely a kind of “self-regulation-plus”, which, “lets states off the hook in terms of ensuring that PSCs abide by their obligations, but in doing so this allows states to evade their own obligations to protect human rights.” 

Indeed, according to MacLeod’s article, “Private Security Companies and Shared Responsibility: The Turn to Multistakeholder Standard-Setting and Monitoring through Self-Regulation-‘Plus’,” there is a concern amongst civil society organizations as well as some states that, “the adoption of any human rights risk certification scheme will result in states not complying with their international obligations,” despite the Montreux Document and the ICoC making clear that, “states cannot transfer their international legal obligations to [PMSCs] through the contractual relationship…the distance created by the very nature of the [quality management system] process (state—accreditation body—certification body—PSC),” which could result in a situation where PMSC firms are, “kept very much at arm’s length from state oversight at both the international and national level.” 

MacLeod further highlights a number of other problems with these opaque standards-setting organizations and codes, such as weak and uncredible oversight mechanisms that will hinder states’ ability to rely on them to prove that states’ international human rights obligations are being met; that certification is voluntary and thus of limited value; that certification bodies too often lack individuals with significant human rights experience to assess the standards being adhered to; and that both the government and industry firms must understand the extents and limits of such accreditation processes. However, in reality, these standards initiatives have permitted the U.S. government to largely wash its hands of doing real due diligence and rigorous vetting of PMSC firms that bid on U.S. government contracts, all while projecting an outward image of probity and good conduct through the creation of a requirement that firms have appropriate industry certifications. 

As MacLeod and DeWinter-Schmitt’s 2019 piece concludes, in an analysis of publicly available data on sixteen PMSCs certified by the ICoCA, “the authors monitored the websites of the 16 certified [private security companies] over several months from February to September 2018 and discovered multiple and ongoing instances of non-conformance with the human rights elements of the Standards.” MacLeod and DeWinter-Schmitt continue that, “what these figures show is that even when companies are certified to a recognized standard, they are not acting in conformance with some of the most basic human rights elements of ANSI/ASIS PSC.1 and ISO 18788, which they must evidence publicly. By extension this means that they also cannot be complying with the ICoC, not to mention the [United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights].” 

Most concerningly to the two authors, they note that they have, “identified numerous instances of the pre-2016 certified PSCs that had in fact regressed in their level of conformance with the standards and so their behaviour contradicts the theory that there is a unidirectional norm cascade process towards even greater norm internalization,” as they note two cases where ANSI/ASIS PSC.1 and ISO 18788 certificates that were previously made publicly available were no longer so; that certain “Statements of Conformance” which demonstrate firms’ high-level commitment to human rights were no longer available; and that a link to a third-party grievance mechanism that had previously worked no longer did so. 

Taken together, these findings raise several crucial questions for MacLeod and DeWinter-Schmitt. Firstly, if the simple and publicly visible requirements for conformance with applicable standards are not being met, it begs the question of whether these firms can be trusted to adhere to the broader human rights requirements of the standards. Secondly, the reliability of certification bodies comes into question, as without regular audits of their certification processes, doubts emerge about the extent to which they can be trusted.

Moreover, the authors highlight the challenge of trusting these companies to conduct meaningful human rights risk and impact assessments that incorporate the effects of PMSCs’ actions on local populations. This concern stems from the fact that these firms are already struggling to adhere to existing standards that necessitate the consideration of human rights impacts.

Additionally, the authors express reservations about the effectiveness of ANSI/ASIS standards in practice. The ICoCA, under its Articles of Association 11.2.4, has seemingly discouraged exploration of the actual efficacy of these standards. This further compounds the doubts surrounding the standards and their practical implementation.

The unfortunate result of all of these issues is that ANSI/ASIS PSC.1 and ISO 18788 certifications are of inherently questionable value, as the actual certification process is nearly entirely opaque to outside observers. As MacLeod and DeWinter-Schmitt’s 2019 paper concludes, “currently there is an unhealthy and unbalanced reliance on the perspectives and competencies of the [National Accreditation Bodies] (e.g. UKAS), the [certification bodies] and the industry itself,” and that while, “there is an apposite opportunity here to raise the alarm and fix the problems before they spiral out of control…it will require all stakeholders to support the [ICoCA] in this goal.”; a level of support that has been historically hard to achieve from the industry. 

Therefore, while any future effort to regulate the PMSC industry will likely require some degree of industry buy-in to be truly effective, past efforts have demonstrated the folly of relying solely on industry-led measures to attain better human rights performance by firms in the field. To that end, Transparency International’s Picard and Goodman suggest a number of ways the U.S. can strengthen oversight of PMSC firms including greater senior-level U.S. government oversight of such firms; greater levels of training and guidance for contracting officers on possible corruption risks posed by PMSCs; that contractors be required to report the beneficial ownership of subcontractors to prevent corruption and fraud; to mandate that all U.S. agencies report to Congress on their use of PMSC firms. 

Moreover, the authors suggest empowering the State Department Directorate of Defense Trade Controls to issue a rule change to the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). This change would require U.S. firms and individuals to apply for a license before participating in combat operations abroad. Accompanying policy guidance would be implemented to deny most license applications, further strengthening oversight in this area.

In addition, the authors propose stricter scrutiny on the use of subcontractors by PMSC firms. These firms would be obligated to disclose any foreign-owned subcontractors and provide information about their beneficial ownership to the government. To enhance transparency, the authors recommend improved reporting on the export of PMSC services, emphasizing the need for specific and actionable categories rather than the current, more generalized approach.

Furthermore, the authors emphasize the importance of collaboration between the Departments of State and Defense and the industry to address corruption risks. They suggest adopting stronger anti-corruption and transparency measures. Additionally, the authors propose the implementation of a policy of non-retaliation against whistleblowers, fostering an environment that encourages the reporting of misconduct.

Top US PMSCs Commitment to Transparency and Anti-Corruption Standards/Source: https://ti-defence.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Hidden-Costs-US-Private-Military-and-Security-Companies-and-the-Risks-of-Corruption-and-Conflict-Web-PDF.pdf#page=15
Top US PMSCs Commitment to Transparency and Anti-Corruption Standards/Source: https://ti-defence.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Hidden-Costs-US-Private-Military-and-Security-Companies-and-the-Risks-of-Corruption-and-Conflict-Web-PDF.pdf#page=15

Similarly, former assistant U.S. attorney Will Mackie has argued for a proposed change to ITAR’s definition of “defense service”, “to include providing personal services, or material support, as a combatant to (or for the benefit of) a foreign power, person, or military force (‘regular or irregular’”, with a new, “Section 120.9(a)(4) could be added to specifically include providing personal services as a foreign fighter, or otherwise providing material support to foreign parties or forces, as a ‘defense service’ requiring an export license.” As Mackie points out, amending section 120.9(a) to allow the federal government to, “approve or reject a ‘mercenary export license’ on its specific merits and on a case-by-case basis,” would bring ITAR more in line with its original objectives of controlling the trafficking of arms and defense services and, “address the threat to U.S. national interests from U.S. origin mercenaries supporting foreign forces involved in both localized coup d’états and ongoing larger conflicts. 

Reema Shah suggests that the State Department should establish a policy of, “only granting licenses to U.S. citizens who are working for [PMSCs] that adhere to the ICoC and are accredited by ICoCA,” and that, “coupling this licensing system with the possibility of civil and criminal prosecutions if individuals are caught evading restrictions could effectively prevent Americans from offering their military know-how to foreign companies that fail to meet international standards.” However, such a scenario, whereby, “the State Department…maintain[s] a list of compliant companies, which citizens could then rely upon in making employment decisions,” would ultimately be hindered by the frequent mergers and rebrandings that are so prevalent throughout the industry. These firms would likely instead argue that State’s list instead be composed of malefactors rather than good actors, with the argument that it will be hard to get their “brand new” firm—that formed out of a merger—onto the Department’s “compliant” list. 

At the international level, Picard and Goodman argue that the United States should actively promote the widespread adoption of the ICoC among influential countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have emerged as some of the world’s most prominent and rapidly adopting users of PMSCs in recent years. Moreover, they argue that the U.S. must rejoin the IGWG in, “calling for clear restrictions on states hiring PMSCs with a record or engaging in corrupt activities or human rights abuses.” 

But, despite calls for the U.S. to clean up its act, it has, in recent years, seemingly gone the opposite way, by reducing U.S. oversight of PMSC activities abroad. For instance, Picard and Goodman remark that in 2019, the State Department exempted U.S.-based PMSCS from certain licensing requirements when providing defense services for U.S. government contracts as well as reduced the number of cases in which individuals covered by ITAR would need DDTC’s prior approval in order to broker certain PMSC services, allowing those individuals to broker the sale of U.S.-homed PMSC services with the government of another country. This stands in rather sharp contrast with the fact that, as Picard and Goodman point out, during this same period, the Commerce Department actually added new elements to its Export Administration Regulations (EAR) in 2021 in order to require U.S. companies to obtain a license from Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security in order to export sensitive intrusion software or IP network communications surveillance technology to certain countries. 

Charting a New Course: Envisioning a U.S.-led Effort for PMSC Regulation

If the U.S. wishes to see the international community surmount all of these hurdles, it will need to take the lead in regulating the PMSC industry, something it has historically shown little desire or ability to do. Indeed, as a July 2021 Government Accountability Office report found, when it came to DOD’s ability to oversee its contracts with private security contractors, “neither DOD nor GAO was able to use DOD’s three PSC data sources to readily determine the universe of PSCs, the type of operation or exercise they support, or their functions, activities, and armed or unarmed status.” The report from GAO’s Tina Won Sherman further found that, “DOD lacks a single, senior-level position assigned to fully monitor whether DOD and various entities are varying out their respective PSC oversight roles and functions.” Taken together, the report notes that, despite having agreed to, “align with the practices and governing principles called for in the 2008 Montreux Document,” the Department has a fundamental inability to track PMSC contracts and personnel in a way that truly ensures firms’ compliance with documents like Montreux or the ICoC. 

Moreover, if the atrocities committed by the Wagner Group in Ukraine, Mali, and elsewhere have not compelled decision-makers to acknowledge the urgent need for the international community to crack down on the industry, it is unlikely that anything short of a mercenary-led invasion of U.S  or allied territory would awaken policy-makers to the true threat posed by these firms. However, as this paper and those discussed above hopefully demonstrate, these firms are not only in dire need of further regulation, but the failures of previous attempts to do so have provided valuable insights for charting a new path forward. These insights demonstrate that it is possible to establish a framework that both allows the industry to operate while implementing robust controls to govern its conduct. 

As Elke Krahmann has written, “the ongoing debate about the definition of commercial military and security service providers highlights two functions. First, definitions play an important social role in legitimizing these firms in the eyes of the public…Secondly, the definition of commercial military and security providers is critical for determining their status under international laws and conventions.” 

Therefore, one of the first issues that must be resolved when contemplating regulations for the PMSC industry is to arrive at a better definition of what is a “mercenary”, “private military”, or “private security” firm and/or employee. As Nihal El Mquirmi has argued, “as long as there is no single definition of what these companies are, each state can regulate the activities of these companies without pushing for an international and legally binding treaty.” Moreover, as the Center for Civilians in Conflict’s 2022 issue brief, “Privatizing War: The Impact of Private Military Companies on the Protection of Civilians,” argues, the excess rigidity and fuzzy definitions of the term “mercenary” or PMSC enable firms to evade regulations on their behavior in conflict zones while also helping firms, “evade the reputational stigma and regulatory regimes narrowly prescribed to either ‘private military companies’ or ‘private security companies’.” 

At the ICRC, Krahmann argues, the Red Cross’ efforts to redefine mercenaries, “served to eliminate ‘mercenary’ as a linguistic and legal category.” Moreover, she states that, “by progressively eradicating the term ‘mercenaries’ from its discourse and replacing it with ‘private contractors’, the ICRC achieved the linguistic reconstruction of the contracted person employing armed force in conflicts.” Additionally, she points out that, even at the UN, where the UN Open-Ended Intergovernmental Working Group on PMSCs and the Working Group on the Use of Mercenaries have been attempting to create the most comprehensive efforts to regulate PMSC firms around the globe, “the main feature of the UN discourse…has been a shift in the definition of mercenarism from a focus on the agents to a focus on specific activities.” She further notes how, from the early 1990s on to today, discussions have shifted from the outright prohibition of those acting as mercenaries to a gradual international acceptance of the PMSC industry, as, “the broad definition of PMSCs adopted by the [WGUM], which included firms providing armed and unarmed, offensive and defensive, contributed to the elimination of the term ‘mercenaries’ from its reports because it implied that, irrespective of their motives or actions, PMSCs were not mercenaries.” 

In light of these facts, it is evident that arriving at a comprehensive definition of “mercenary” or private security/military “contractor” becomes crucial in order to effectively regulate the industry’s behavior. Such a definition should therefore strike a balance that both satisfies countries’ interests in the existence of these entities while still accurately encompassing their actual conduct worldwide. Furthermore, while there does not seem to be much international support—at least from the major Western nations where the majority of PMSCs exist—to eliminate—or even severely curtail—the private military and security industry, per se, there may be, after the recent events in Ukraine, room for an international effort to more stringently regulate and/or eliminate the use of actual “mercenaries” around the globe. 

While identifying a mercenary can be subjective, similar to former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s famous remark on obscenity, there is value in establishing a clear test to determine whether individuals or firms are acting as mercenaries. Drawing inspiration from the Supreme Court’s approach in the Miller case, such a test could provide valuable guidance and avoid the problems faced by prior definitions of mercenary. Specifically, most previous definitions of “mercenary” have faced challenges due to their reliance on criteria such as substantially higher remuneration than military personnel, a primary motivation driven by material gain, or the exclusion of individuals who are nationals of a party involved in the conflict. By addressing these complexities, a well-defined test could help provide a more objective means of categorizing mercenaries and ensuring appropriate regulation of their activities.

While likely something that would need to be more firmly hashed out by those with a legal education, moving away from the strict definitions found in ICRUFTM, the Additional Protocols to the Geneva Conventions, or the OAU Convention could be advantageous. A broader definition of mercenary would therefore be someone who:  a) operate in active conflict zones or contingency operations; b) are not sent by a State that is a party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces; c) may be required to use force to protect themselves or their clients in the course of their duties; and d) receive pre-negotiated monetary compensation for their actions. While such a definition would still likely encompass some of the actions of private security firms working to protect clients in conflict zones, those firms would at least have the knowledge that their actions, when working in active conflict zones such as Somalia, Ukraine, or Syria, would be much more strictly regulated.

However, although a more comprehensive and easily applicable definition of “mercenary” would aid the international community in determining its oversight targets, such a definition would have limited usefulness without a binding set of international regulations governing the activities of individuals and firms acting as mercenaries abroad. Additionally, while instruments like the Montreux Document and the International Code of Conduct for Private Security Providers currently lack significant enforcement mechanisms, they are not entirely without value. Specifically, the United Nations Open-Ended Intergovernmental Working Group on PMSCs could use the Montreux Document and the International Code of Conduct as a basis for developing enforceable international standards for PMSC conduct, with a primary focus on establishing a binding enforcement mechanism. By leveraging these existing frameworks, the international community can work towards ensuring stronger accountability and regulation within the private security industry.

While the proposed Draft Instrument on an International Regulatory Framework on the Regulation, Monitoring of and Oversight Over the Activities of Private Military and Security Companies serves as a commendable initial step towards these efforts, there are certain challenges that need to be addressed. Despite acknowledging the positive contributions of the Montreux Document and the ICoC in regulating the industry, the proposed draft has encountered opposition from the European Union, Turkey, Russia, and other parties. These opponents argue that the Montreux Document and ICoC merely illuminate existing rules of international law governing firms and their employees, raising doubts about the value of a more binding international instrument.

However, the central issue lies in the fact that neither the Montreux Document nor the ICoC effectively address the gaps in international law that allow human rights violators to evade accountability. Furthermore, these documents fail to tackle the lack of genuine regulatory commitment by countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom towards these firms. It is imperative to overcome these challenges by developing a comprehensive international framework that not only addresses the existing gaps but also ensures robust regulation and accountability for private military and security companies.

For instance, as the Rebecca DeWinter-Schmitt edited, “Montreux Five Years On: An analysis of State efforts to implement Montreux Document legal obligations and good practices,” argues, “the U.S., as a Contracting and Home State, has not been able to create a fully functional and comprehensive system of laws and regulations to hold PMSCs and their personnel criminally accountable for violations of national and international law, to include crimes committed abroad,” and therefore, “has not fully met its Montreux Document obligations to provide the capability of prosecuting grave breaches of international humanitarian law and exercising criminal accountability for international crimes.” Instead, DeWinter-Schmitt’s piece argues that, “what currently exists is a patchwork of statutes that allows…for the possibility of prosecution of PMSCs personnel, but not PMSCs, either in federal civilian or military courts,” and, “each of these statutes has certain limitations in terms of scope, reach, and applicability, which create legal barriers to accountability…”

The Montreux Five Years On analysis further notes that in the UK, which, “ranks second behind the U.S. as the largest Home State for PMSCs,” the main concern has largely been the fact that, “the private defence industry as a whole remains one of the United Kingdom’s most important in terms of generating external revenue,” and that, especially in a post-Brexit world marked by declining British defense exports, “the government has noted that, when working with the international community toward international regulation of PMSCs, it wants to ensure that ‘UK companies are not unfairly disadvantaged by raising their standards.” 

Taken together with the aforementioned GAO report from 2021 discussing DOD’s inability to monitor private military and security firms and contracts, it creates a situation where the two largest Western Home and Contracting states for PMSC services have evinced strikingly little desire to limit the scope of PMSC operations. However, as both the U.S. and UK are already on record as having strongly supporting the Montreux Document and the ICoC, there appears to be some room to pressure those states to tighten up their own national laws governing PMSCs, which would go a long way to addressing some of the problems in the industry. 

One potential alternative to a binding international treaty governing PMSC accreditation and standards, proposed by James Cockayne and Emily Speers Mears in 2009, is the establishment of a Global Security Industry “Club” at the UN. This “Club” would consist of States, PMSCs, their trade association representations, and client representatives, all collaborating in order to, “develop and implement a shared professional culture or ethic through the collective exercise of peer pressure.” While such a club would be, according to Cockayne and Mears, merely, “a soft tool for standards implementation only, one that would have no enforcement power other than peer pressure,” it would, however, allow States like the UK and organizations like the EU, which have expressed serial reservations about the proposed IGWG Draft Instrument, to participate in the effort to rein in these firms without requiring the passage of a binding instrument at the UN. 

Another way to improve U.S. oversight of PMSCs would be to follow the steps recommended in the July 2021 GAO report, which included ensuring that the Secretary of Defense clarify and communicate to all relevant departmental stakeholders which departmental activities and services fall under the private military and security umbrella; that the Secretary ensure that the replacement Chief Management Officer and the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and sustainment establish a system for identifying contracts and personnel involved in private military and security functions; and that the Secretary instruct the Under Secretary for Acquisition and Sustainment to update DOD Instruction 3020.50 and assign a senior-level figure to monitor departmental PMSC oversight and periodically report on that process.

While these suggestions would, of course, not directly affect some of the major PMSC violators of human rights such as the Wagner Group or many of the ones protecting the extractives industry in Africa, by making existing standards more binding on the major Western firms, it would hopefully highlight and create greater levels of international pressure on the actions of those firms that are acting in brazen disregard for the standards of the Montreux Document or the ICoC. 

Final Thoughts – Doing Nothing Is Not An Option

Blackwater Personnel in Combat Gear - Unknown Date/Location/Source: https://silentprofessionals.org/blackwater/
Blackwater Personnel in Combat Gear – Unknown Date/Location/Source: https://silentprofessionals.org/blackwater/

The atrocities committed by Russia’s Wagner Group in Ukraine serve as a stark reminder of the alarming consequences that arise from the unchecked expansion of the private military and security industry. These firms have increasingly encroached upon functions traditionally reserved for the state and challenged its monopoly on the use of force. Western decision-makers should be deeply concerned by these developments. The actions of groups like Wagner in Ukraine and the notorious American firm formerly known as Blackwater in Iraq have demonstrated the detrimental impact private military and security firms can have on the perception of their home states by local populations. While efforts have been made in the U.S. Congress to classify firms like Wagner Group as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, it is crucial to recognize that addressing the egregious excesses of individual firms alone will not be sufficient to effectively regulate and rein in the industry.

While countries like the U.S. and Russia may find utility in leveraging PMSC firms for their operational flexibility, this flexibility comes at a significant cost, eroding the state’s monopoly on violence and tarnishing their international reputations. Furthermore, in their attempts to address legitimate security concerns, many African states have resorted to engaging PMSCs, leading to “potential humanitarian and human rights laws violations with little possibility of justice for victims,” as a December 2021 report from the African Institute for Security Studies aptly points out.  However, it is important to recognize that while these security needs are genuine, they should serve as a catalyst for a more concerted international effort to address the underlying causes of instability in Africa. Relying on the proliferation of armed mercenary groups across the continent is not a sustainable solution.

The essential issue, however, is the fact that, absent binding international regulations governing the use of PMSCs, firms will have little motivation to self-police even if large contracting states such as the U.S. or United Kingdom require adherence to industry-advocated “good practice” in order for firms to receive government contracts. The essential issue is that a half-century of economics has convinced business leaders that moral and ethical standards limiting their profit maximization potential are abhorrent to them. 

As celebrated economist Milton Friedman once famously wrote, “few trends could so thoroughly undermine the very foundations of our free society as the acceptance by corporate officials of a social responsibility other than to make as much money for their stockholders as possible,” arguing that an explicit evaluation of ethical considerations when conducting business should be anathema to corporate decision makers. Following Freidman, half a century of business leaders, from Michael Milken to Steven Schwarzman have embraced the Chicago school’s dogma, destroying any remaining idea—if it ever existed in the first place—that corporate leaders should guide their firms according to sound social values. 

As Paul Charles Thornbury writes in, “Military Culture and Security: Boundaries and Identity in the UK Private Military Security Field,” while, “industry actors have been central to the creation of ‘norms’ of behaviour within the [private security] sector through their participation in the establishment of systems of governance,” a firms’ choice to participate in the creation of regulatory standards, “can be seen to have stemmed as much from the pressures of winning new business (and defending existing business) in the face of increasing bad publicity and societal scepticism, as from a subjective commitment to the values of civil society.” 

More alarmingly, Thornbury highlights that even with the conclusion of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the, “military private security field did not dissipate as work in Iraq reduced,” as new, “sub-fields of private military security emerged as the sector explored new opportunities to derive benefit…” As such, Thornbury suggests, “the ‘business’ of private military security involved more than simple negotiation of commercial terms surrounding ‘settled’ services, the scope and effect of which were familiar to both client and provider. Instead it involved innovative new ways that military expertise could be applied to the civilian realm, and, by necessity, the willful creation of a self-perpetuating logic justifying the propagation of military style approaches to security,” as PMSCs have expanded into the maritime, cybersecurity and surveillance, and other new fields, where, “the techniques of counter-terrorism could be commoditised and enacted, insulated from wider ethical considerations by construction of ‘craft’ and professionalism.” 

The private military and security industry has historically been one where its practitioners have often desired, “the commodification of forms of behavior central to the military habitus could be achieved,” as the industry is often filled with, “veterans of special designation units, endowed with the ability to challenge and transgress conventional boundaries,” which have been, “central to the development of the UK private military security field,” as well as to the United States’ own firms. 

As a result of the power held by former Special Forces and special intelligence operators in industry firms, Thornbury observes, “interviewees attributed the potential for private security actors to engage in violent transgressive practices to two factors; the first was the formative exposure to highly aggressive, often elite, unit and sub-unit cultures in the military that were ‘brought forward’ into the private security realm,” and, “professional deficiencies, or personal frustrations,” that manifest during a particular practitioners’ military service whereby some individuals wish to continue experiencing the camaraderie and feelings of accomplishment that come with membership in elite units. As such, Thornbury concludes, for many PMSC personnel, “the transition into private security was…the result of the aspiration to work in circumstances that replicated the occupational flexibility of civilian employment, but also allowed them to engage in highly militarised forms of activity that perpetuated, or re-created, the emotional fulfillment they associated with the habitus of the combat oriented sub-unit.” 

The modern PMSC industry thus stands as evidence that the combination of profit maximization imperative advocated by the last fifty years of mainstream economics—influenced by the Chicago school’s blind-eye towards morality, and the belief among many PMSC practitioners that they are not only special but also entitled due to their exceptional abilities—results in a situation where firms are not only more likely to engage in behavior that poses risks to human rights, but also more likely to resist outside efforts to rein in their excesses. Furthermore, these firms’ very existence can pose a real threat to the State’s monopoly on the use of force. 

These issues are further compounded by the gradual erosion of civilian control of the military that has occurred in the United States after nearly a quarter century of continuous warfare. While it is unlikely that a firm such as Constellis will attempt a so-called “principal-agent inversion” and attempt to usurp the role of civilian decision makers in the United States, the situation Russia faces with its Wagner Group should act as a cautionary tale for those in the U.S. that feel that a similar situation is impossible in the United States. During the Russian-initiated war in Ukraine, Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin has repeatedly criticized, countermanded, and outright disobeyed Kremlin orders. Prigozhin’s profanity-laced tirades against Russian MOD officials, public criticisms of the Russian war effort, and warnings of a possible revolution from Russians frustrated with the fact that its elites lack commitment to the war all demonstrate the difficulties of trying to ride the PMSC tiger. While Prigozhin has, in recent days, denied reports that he might be interested in staging a coup against Vladimir Putin, he has indicated that it is as much about Wagner’s lack of numbers as it is his belief that a militarized takeover of the country is not a good idea. 

While some may perceive the situation in Russia as unique to that country—given the two decades under Putin characterized by increasing autocracy, kleptocracy, and a tendency toward militarism, which heighten the likelihood of a private firm attempting a coup—similar scenarios cannot be completely dismissed in the United States. This is especially true if policymakers persist in maintaining the country’s perpetual war stance, as exemplified by figures like Erik Prince, the former founder of Blackwater, who has explored leveraging the industry’s tools to influence U.S. elections.

In light of these findings, it becomes evident that the private military and security industry presents formidable challenges to effective governance and regulation. The inherent resistance demonstrated by PMSCs themselves, along with the hesitancy of major users such as the United States and the United Kingdom to adopt binding international regulations, further complicates endeavors to address these pressing issues. As emphasized by Lu, Redwood, and Van De Velde, “the for-profit nature of private military companies creates perverse incentives that may lead these companies to unjustifiably expand the scope of their actions, to unnecessarily prolong engagements, and to seek to influence policy decisions in a way that increases the scope of their actions.” Combined with the proclaimed exceptionalism among industry practitioners and the heavy reliance of Western states on these firms in recent years, this creates an environment where companies are not only more prone to engaging in behaviors that pose risks to human rights but also more resistant to external oversight mechanisms.

Overcoming these challenges requires a collective commitment from all stakeholders involved, including governments, international organizations, and civil society, to confront the inherent risks posed by these firms and work towards establishing robust regulatory frameworks to govern them. Starting with the two largest Western State employers of PMSCs, the United States and United Kingdom—as Sean McFate advocates that customers, “pool their market power, like a cartel, to enforce their best practices,”—it is crucial that States prioritize the protection of human rights, the preservation of state authority, and the promotion of transparency and accountability within the private military and security sector. Only by implementing comprehensive and enforceable regulations can States hope to mitigate PMSCs excesses and safeguard the well-being of individuals and societies affected by industry activities. 


In light of the actions carried out by Western mercenary organizations such as Blackwater and Aegis Defense Services in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as groups like Malhama Tactical in Syria and Wagner in Ukraine and various parts of Africa, there is an urgent need for stronger global agreement on a binding set of regulations to govern private military and security companies that assume roles traditionally reserved for states. While an outright ban on PMSCs is unlikely in the near-term, failing to collectively impose stricter controls on rogue actors like the Wagner Group will not only heighten the risk to civilian populations but will also undermine the state’s exclusive authority over the use of force. It is crucial for the international community to address this pressing issue to ensure a safer future global landscape before these firms gain an even stronger foothold in the global marketplace. As John Stuart Mill once said in his inaugural address at the University of St. Andrews in 1867, “Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” For too long, the good men and women in the West have remained inert. It is high time to rectify that.

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That Good Men Should Look On and Do Nothing: The International Failure to Regulate Private Military and Security Companies (WIP-Sneak Peek)

Author’s Note: While still only halfway completed, I wanted to take a moment to show everyone what I’ve been working on these past few weeks and give a taste of what I will have finished either next week or the following week; a deep dive into the recent attempts at regulating the PMSC industry. Take a look, and feel free to send me any feedback!

June 2, 2023

In April of 2022, video and photographic evidence showing the bodies of dozens of massacred civilians left scattered across the streets of Bucha, Ukraine shocked the world; and while not wholly responsible for the atrocities committed there, Russia’s Wagner Group, a private military and security company (PMSC) with a hugely checkered past, still likely played a key role in the wanton brutality that Russian forces subjected the Ukrainian town to. More distressingly, the Russian PMSCs’ brutalities in Bucha were not an isolated incident, as Wagner Group has been accused of similar human rights violations and other war crimes in Libya, Syria, Mali, the Central African Republic, and elsewhere throughout the world. Wagner Group leadership has shown similarly little care for the lives of its own troops and for the war in Ukraine, the PMSC decided to recruit, “thousands of inmates from Russian prisons by offering them pardons in exchange for combat tours,” where they were used, in the words of one Ukrainian battalion commander, Lt. Col. Pavlo, “…like zombies. They used the prisoners like a wall of meat. It didn’t matter how many we killed—they kept coming.” 

While the Biden administration has announced various sanctions on the group and its various subsidiaries and proxies—including efforts to cut off the firm’s access to advanced weapons systems—and has simultaneously stepped up intelligence sharing with African allies in an attempt to dissuade countries on the continent not to engage the Russian security firm’s services, the United States has largely been absent from the issue of regulating what used to be known as the mercenary industry. Despite statements and diplomatic cables from the administration demonstrating a growing level of concern about, “Wagner’s ability to shape events in countries where the U.S. and its allies hold business and diplomatic relationships,” the United States’ decades of somnambulance regarding the regulation of what are essentially mercenaries has created a situation where a firm like Wagner can operate with relative freedom throughout the world, free to offer their guns to the highest bidder no matter how they trample on the rights of civilians around the glove. While the United States is not solely responsible for the dearth of binding international legislation governing the use of mercenaries or private military and security companies, its frequent use of such firms, coupled with its obstruction of efforts to create binding rules for these entities, has created a situation where the only guardrails for the industry are voluntary documents that lack any kind of international enforcement mechanism. 

More distressing than the more general lack of international response to the barbarities committed by the Wagner Group’s personnel throughout Europe, Africa, and the Middle East in recent years is the similarly lackluster response by the United States towards allegations of human rights violations by its own home-state PMSCs like the one formerly known as Blackwater (now Constellis)—which was involved not only in the Nisour Square massacre in 2007, but had already been accused of frequent and excessive uses of force throughout Iraq in the years leading up to the Nisour Square incident. 

Especially as the United States attempted to ramp up its own military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan after September 11th, it looked to the private military and security industry to fulfill the vast amount of logistics, construction, security, and training needs it would face, resulting in a situation where, by 2011, total U.S., foreign, and host country national contractors outnumbered the number of U.S. uniformed military on the ground in those two countries and by 2019, the ratio of contractor personnel to U.S. troops had grown to a ratio of 1.5:1. Moreover, this huge expansion in the use of private military and security firms came despite credible allegations against firms like Blackwater and CACI International Inc. of committing human rights violations. 

A global industry that is projected to have grown from $100 billion to $224 billion in 2020 to a projected $457.3 billion by 2030, the private military and security field has not seen a concomitant rise in efforts to regulate it despite its meteoric rise in both size and reach since the turn of the century. Whether for short-sighted “national security” reasons or due to a neoliberal belief in the power of markets to solve all problems, the PMSC industry has been mostly left to regulate itself over the past two and a half decades, as the United States has not only failed to advance its own efforts to reign in the industry but it has actively impeded international efforts to do so. 

This failure to advance more stringent industry regulations not only damages U.S. condemnations of the atrocities committed by groups like Wagner but it actively undermines U.S. foreign policy goals in Africa, where the failure to creating binding international regulations on the conduct of such groups has led to the expansion of Russian influence throughout countries such as Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali where Wagner has offered “counterterrorism” and logistical support to military-led governments that have had to look elsewhere for security assistance after Western leaders had condemned military coups in those countries. 

While non-binding instruments such as the Montreux Document (Montreux) and the International Code of Conduct for Private Security Service Providers (ICoC) and its Geneva-based International Code of Conduct for Private Security Service Providers’ Association (ICoCA), do provide some normative guide rails for the conduct of the industry, neither Montreux nor the ICoC are internationally binding legal instruments, making compliance with either the Montreux Document or the ICoC almost entirely voluntary processes, with no real sanctions to provide firms with a real incentive not to violate these collections of best practices. 

In, “Are There ‘Inherently Sovereign Functions’ in International Law,” Frédéric Mégret writes that the “privatization of functions that were previously considered sovereign has reached new heights, accelerating a process of ‘retreat of the state’” as that process has extended not just to the running of “previously public monopolies, including the health system, education, and even prisons,” it has extended to, “the use of force,” as well, including police, military and spying functions. Mégret further points to a 2018 paper from Nigel D. White, Mary E. Footer, Kerry Senior, Mark van Dorp, Vincent Kiezebrink, Y. Wasi Gede Puraka, and Ayudya Fajri Anzas that argues that, “the prevailing orthodox view of the public-private distinction as found in international law is very much based on the concept of a strong sovereign state, one that retains a firm grip, if not monopoly, on the use of force,” and that international rules governing state responsibility and whether certain conduct is a “public” or “private act for which the state does or does not bear direct responsibility, “are not well-suited to the turn of the century phenomenon of Western governments contracting out security functions to private actors…”

As Nigel D. White writes in his own piece, “Outsourcing Military and Security Functions,” responding to Mégret’s article, the outsourcing of security functions, “reduces the state’s competence on the international plane including its ability to project its sovereign power abroad within the framework of international laws agreed by states on the basis of sovereign equality. By transferring some of its military and security functions to the private sector in its external use of force, the state erodes the power of direct command and control it has over armed forces essential for the state’s monopoly.” White notes that in this shift from public to private force the, “contract-based model largely depends on a combination of liability in private law and self-regulatory forms of corporate social responsibility that purport to ensure that contractors comply with the basic rules on the use of force,” and that, “outsourcing means that a strong vertical system of control over the use of force is replaced by a weaker horizontal one.” However, in practice, this weaker horizontal system of control largely only exists for Western firms, and even then, is more about ensuring their continued ability to obtain government contracts that require adherence to certain codes of conduct and less about ensuring robust regulation of this emerging—and frequently troubling—global industry. 

Moving forward, what the United States needs to do is abandon its laissez-faire attitude towards the industry and embrace its role as a global standards-setter by working with the UN Working Group on Mercenaries to come up with an legally binding international agreement constraining the use of private military and security firms such that it ensures that PMSC personnel are properly vetted, trained, licensed, prohibited from using certain weapons in certain situations, and that mechanisms are established so that victims can obtain full and complete restitution from firms and individuals that do them harm. Without such an legally-binding international convention on the use of such private military and security actors, the next counterinsurgency programming the United States attempts will likely be even more filled with private contractors who are free to act with relative impunity, knowing that they are unlikely to be prosecuted under existing host- or home-nation legislation. 

Early Efforts to Regulate the PMSC/Mercenary Industry

Major efforts to regulate the industry largely arose due to the involvement of mercenary outfits in the wars of national liberation in Africa throughout the second half of the twentieth century. Throughout the 1960s, ‘70s, and early ‘80s, the United Nations Security Council had issued several resolutions condemning the use of mercenaries in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1967, the People’s Republic of Benin in 1977, and the Republic of Seychelles in 1981. However, despite voicing extreme concern about states tolerating the recruitment and training of mercenaries on their territory, the Security Council decided to refrain from taking more binding actions to stop the proliferation of such groups at that time. 

While the UN failed to specifically address the proliferation of mercenarism in Africa in the latter half of the twentieth century, the Red Cross did demonstrate some level of concern with the industry’s rise. Specifically, the 1977 Additional Protocols to the Geneva Conventions of 1949 contains an Article 47 which defines mercenaries as any person who is: a) is specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict; b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities; c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party; d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict; e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces. 

Unfortunately, in defining a mercenary so stringently—specifically the section requiring that a mercenary be promised “material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar rank and functions in the armed forces of that Party”—the Additional Protocols drew too narrow of a distinction on who can be defined as a mercenary, limiting the Additional Protocol’s effectiveness. For example, as a former member of the UN Working Group on Mercenaries’ José L. Gómez del Prado writes in his article, “The Ineffectiveness of the Current Definition of a ‘Mercenary’ in International Humanitarian and Criminal Law,”’ for the book Public International Law and Human Rights Violations by Private Military and Security Companies, in Iraq and Afghanistan, these definitions would be hard to apply to the private military and security personnel active there. Del Prado states that, “the majority of people recruited by PMSCs to carry out security activities in the conflicts in Iraq or Afghanistan—people who could have been considered mercenaries—were motivated by a combination of selfish and altruistic motives…which were all in play simultaneously.” As such, he argues that, as human behavior is extremely complex and cannot be reduced to single factors, “it is impossible to prove legally the belief that mercenaries are solely financially motivated,” limiting the applicability of the Convnetion’s definition. In light of those limitations, del Prado suggests that, “rather than looking at the necessary prerequisites that set in motion and individual’s motivation, we should be concentrating on the acts taking place and the human rights violations they perpetrate.”

However, the Red Cross was not the only international organization that attempted to restrict the use of mercenaries, as the Organization of African Unity (OAU) Convention for the Elimination of Mercenarism in Africa opened for signature in Libreville, Gabon in July of 1977. The Convention, del Prado notes, “was largely based on the draft produced by the International Commission of Inquiry set up by the Angolan government with the aim of having an objective evaluation of the Luanda judgment,” on the trial of thirteen Western mercenaries who had been sentenced to either long prison terms or execution for their actions against the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola in 1975. However, the 1977 OAU Convention had its limitations as well. 

As Nihal El Mquirmi has written in, “Navigating in a Grey Zone: Regulating PMSCs,” for the Policy Center for the New South the OAU had been concerned about the issue of mercenaries for at least a decade, as the 1967 Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the OAU formally recognized that, “the existence of mercenaries constitutes a serious threat to the security of Member States,” and called on, “all States of the world to enact laws declaring the recruitment and training of mercenaries in their territories a punishable crime and deterring their citizens from enlisting as mercenaries.” 

Despite the perception amongst African governments that mercenaries had been, “partly responsible for ‘propping up’ illegitimate colonial regimes and threatening the independence aspirations of the African people,” for decades, and efforts over the decade between 1967 and the Convention’s adoption in 1977, its definition of who exactly could be described as a mercenary limited the Convention’s ultimate utility. Specifically, Article 1 of the 1977 Convention defines a mercenary as, “anyone who, not a national of the state against which his actions are directed, is employed, enrols or links himself willingly to a person, group or organization whose aim is: a) To overthrow by force or arms or by any other means the government of that Member State of the OAU; b) To undermine the independence, territorial integrity or normal working of the institutions of the said State; c) To block by any means the activities of any liberation movement recognized by the OAU.” 

Nevertheless, even though the Convention went into force in 1985, its utility has been limited due to the fact, Nihal El Mquirmi notes, that its definition only included individuals who were not a national of the state against which their actions are directed, which fails to “anticipate in its definition the recruitment of mercenaries by African state governments seeking to maintain sovereignty.” Moreover, El Mquirmi writes that, not only does the OAU Convention lack a concrete enforcement mechanism, but, “because of the historical presence of mercenaries in Africa during and after the decolonization process, the OAU Convention only criminalizes the use of mercenaries when they hinder or oppose ‘by armed violence a process of self-determination, stability or the territorial integrity’ of an African state.” Furthermore, as of 2013, only 31 of 54 African Union states had ratified the Convention, limiting its applicability. 

Additionally, while the Geneva and OAU Conventions’ definitions of who could be labeled as a mercenary made it difficult to apply to the type of outfits operating throughout the world at the time, there was another effort at the United Nations to address the continued rise of mercenary groups, with Nigeria sending a December 5, 1979 letter to the United Nations Secretary-General requesting that the thirty-fourth session of the UN General Assembly include an agenda item on, “Drafting of an international convention against activities of mercenaries.”  

As a result, in December 1979, the General Assembly adopted resolution 34/140 which recognized the threat that mercenarism posed to international peace and security, noting that, “like murder, piracy, and genocide, [mercenarism] is a universal crime against humanity,” and calling on all States to, “exercise the utmost vigilance against the menace posed by the activities of mercenaries and to ensure by both administrative and legislative measures that their territory…are not used for the planning…assembly, financing, training and transit of mercenaries designed to subvert or overthrow the Government of any Member State and to fight the national liberation movement of peoples which are struggling against colonial domination or alien occupation or racist regimes in the exercise of theri right of self-determination…” As part of the ‘79 resolution, the General Assembly called for the “drafting of an international convention to outlaw mercenarism in all its manifestations,” a process that would ultimately result in the 1989 International Convention against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries (ICRUFTM), a document that would have its own crippling limitations. 

The 1989 International Convention Against the Recruitment, Use, Financing, and Training of Mercenaries (ICRUFTM)

The 1989 Convention, adopted in December of that year after a decade of debate, contained a definition of mercenary that, while derived from both the 1977 Additional Protocols and the 1979 OAU Convention, “broadens the scope to include mercenaries operating in both international and non-international armed conflicts, but also in ‘any other situation.’” As Zarko Perovic wrote in a piece for Lawfare back in 2021, the 1989 Convention, “has a five-factor test to determine who is a mercenary,” where, “a mercenary (a) is specifically recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict; (b) is motivated to take part in hostilities for private gain and is promised material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar rank and functions in the armed forces of that party; (c) is neither a national of a party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a party to the conflict; (d) is not a member of the armed forces of a party to the conflict; and (e) has not been sent by a state that is not a party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces,” with an individual who fulfills that criteria and who, “participates directly in hostilities or in a concerted act of violence,” being in violation of the Convention. 

However, the definition, as Nihal El Mquirmi points out, “excludes PMSCs that have operated in Iraq or in Afghanistan, contracted to protect the government and the territorial integrity of the state in which they operate. Furthermore, the 1989 ICRUFTM lacks a monitoring body, which leaves enforcement up to individual member states, limiting the text’s practical applicability. Compounding ICRUFTM’s definitional problems, as José L. Gómez del Prado writes in, “A United Nations Instrument to Regulate and Monitor Private Military and Security Contractors,” the specific elements of the definition, when taken individually, pose problems on their own, specifically noting that:

“for example: the person has had to be recruited to combat, i.e. to take part in direct hostilities. This has to be specified in the contract, which usually is not. In addition, the person may or not be taking part in direct participation in hostilities, which is not always the case. The question of proving that the person is only motivated by the desire of gain is extremely hard to prove. As to the question that in order to be a mercenary the person must not be a national or a resident of a party to the conflict excludes a large number of persons. For instance, under this criteria all the citizens of countries participating in the Iraq war (Americans, British, Dutch, etc.) would not be catalogued as mercenaries.”

What’s more, del Prado notes, “one has to bear in mind that the five elements of the definition are cumulative, and all of them must be fulfilled: not only one or a few.” In addition, he argues that, “other problems which had not been envisaged at the time have appeared now with the contracting out of military and security functions to the private sector. For instance, the definition is ambiguous or does not foresee the activities of PSMCs in armed conflicts. It does not make the distinction between active and passive participation in combat. It leaves out the training of militaries, the operational assistance to the armed forces and the strategic planning.” 

Furthermore, as the Center for Civilians in Conflict argued in a 2022 Issue Brief, “the criteria required to meet the…[ICRUFTM] definition of ‘mercenary’…[is] notoriously difficult to satisfy, rendering a ban on the use of mercenaries close to meaningless in practice.” Additionally, as Micahel Scheimer points out in a 2009 American University International Law Review article, “only those countries that sign [ICRUFTM] are bound by it,” and ICRUFTM, “has garnered even less support than Article 47: it has taken decades to come into effect, and far fewer states have signed [ICRUFTM] than ratified Article 47.” Scheimer additionally points out that, “a [private military company[ could find it easier to escape the language on compensation in [ICRUFTM] than the similar clause in Article 47, because the [ICRUFTM] language allows for official duty on behalf of a state, not just as a member of the armed forces,” so a state agency can contract with a private military or security firm to perform official state duties to avoid the Convention’s definition. 

Moreover, as Amol Mehra writes in a January 2010 paper, “Bridging Accountability Gaps: The Proliferation of Private Military and Security Companies and Ensuring Accountability for Human Rights Violations,” the problems with ICRUFTM and the prior international definitions of mercenary are numerous and, “although [ICRUFTM] makes it a crime to be a mercenary, the enforcement of this crime depends on implementing legislation by the relevant state party, “ and that the rights mentioned in the 1989 Convention is “self-determination” even though, “business activity impacts multiple internationally recognized rights, including the right to life, liberty and security of the person.”  

The result of these, “tremendous loopholes in coverage over PMSC actors under the Convention Against Mercenaries, the Geneva Convention and other such international treaties, showcases the urgent need for an international consensus on accountability for the corporate entity and not just the contractors,” involved in mercenary activities. However, José L. Gómez del Prado has written, “the aim of such a binding legal instrument is not the outright banning of PMSCs, but rather to establish minimum international standards for States parties to regulate the activities of PMSCs and their personnel,” and that, “in addition, taking into account the extensive outsourcing of military and security functions and the growing role of PMSCs in armed conflicts, post-conflict and low intensity armed conflict situations it is also recommended to prohibit the outsourcing of inherently State functions to PMSCs in accordance with the principal of the State monopoly on the legitimate use of force.”

Towards a More Industry-Led Approach

If the 1977 Additional Protocols, the 1979 OAU Convention, and the 1989 ICRUFTM Conventions failed to deliver on the promise of regulating PMSCs, it was largely due to the resistance these conventions have received from Western countries. As del Prado contends, “the position of Western countries in the U.N. has been a rejection of regulation and oversight mechanisms,” as much the booming industry is headquartered in Western nations, providing those nations with tax receipts and politicians through extensive domestic and international lobbying. Instead, what Western nations have largely favored is a more neoliberal regulatory approach to the industry. 

Beginning in 2005, the government of Switzerland began talks with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in what would become known as the “Swiss Initiative”, “regarding the need for intergovernmental dialogue on the application of [international humanitarian law] and human rights law to PMSCs.” This led to a two-pronged effort with one part looking into industry commitment towards the creation of an international “code of conduct” for firms as well as a look at efforts to clarify existing international law governing industry firms. The resultant document, issued by the Swiss and ICRC in September of 2008 on, “Pertinent International Legal Obligations and Good Practices for Related States to Operations of Private Military and Security Companies during Armed Conflict,” would become known as the Montreux Document

As James Cockayne has written, “over the course of two meetings (16–17 January 2006, in Zurich, and 13–14 November 2006, in Montreux), 16 states, the European Commission, the ICRC, the British Association of Private Security Companies (BAPSC), the International Peace Operations Association (IPOA), and civil society and academic experts began to identify elements of practice that might be recommended to states and industry.” While the participants concluded that there was not a total dearth of existing international obligations for firms and that there was a patchwork of existing international and State laws governing PMSC conduct, “some states sounded a note of caution about the proposed ‘standards’ or ‘elements of recommended regulatory practices’ section, arguing that the very different approaches to regulation at the national level…made comparison between such approaches problematic,” and thus, some states, “signaled that they would not agree to a document that established binding standards or singled some practice out as the ‘best’—or even as ‘recommended’. Others went further, claiming that it might, in fact, prove difficult to identify any relevant regulatory practice—so calls for elaboration of best practice were perhaps premature. As a result, participants began talking of the second section of the proposed output as an elaboration of ‘good practice’, even as civil society actors cautioned that this risked watering down the authority of any output from the Initiative.” 

A watered down end-product was the exact—and predictable—result from such a process. While widespread State buy-in is, of course, desirable, the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) and the ICRC took a, “conservative approach to the statement of state obligations with the extensive involvement of governmental and non-governmental experts in the development of ‘good practices’.” While the Swiss FDFA and ICRC were careful to emphasize that the Initiative was not intended to legitimize the industry in any way, José L. Gómez del Prado argues that instead, the resulting document, “stamp[s] its seal of legitimacy on PMSCs,” as the Montreux Document in reality, “recognises de facto this new industry and the military and security services it provides. It legitmises the services the industry provides, which still remain unregulated and unmonitored.”

The Document, which is broken down into discrete “good practices” for contracting states—States that directly contract for the services of PMSCs including the use of subcontractors—for territorial states—where PMSCs operate—and for home states—where a PMSC is registered or incorporated or has its principal place of management—is essentially hamstrung due to its very nature. As the Montreux Document notes itself in its Preface, “this document is not a legally binding instrument,” watering down its potential efficacy. 

The Montreux Document was developed in parallel with an International Code of Conduct for Private Security Service Providers (ICoC) and later a multi-stakeholder initiative known as the International Code of Conduct Association (ICoCA)—composed of industry firms, select governments, and a few human rights advocacy non-governmental organizations to oversee implementation—which was an attempt by industry associations—such as the International Peace Operations Association (IPOA) and the British Association of Private Security Companies (BAPSC)—as well as other individual business leaders, the Swiss, the UK, and the US governments to establish voluntary industry standards for behavior. As Christopher Kinsey and Col. Christopher Mayer wrote in a piece for King’s College London’s Defence-in-Depth early last year, “participation in the ICoC has been less successful than the initial enthusiasm for the Code might have suggested,” as, “at its height, only 115 Private Security Companies were members, and as of December 2021, membership stood at just 66 PSCs.” Moreover, the authors note that, “government participation has also failed to meet expectations,” since,” only seven of the 58 governments that participate in the Montreux Document and its Forum are members of the ICoCA,” and, “of those seven members, none are developing nations which are typically most at risk from non-state armed groups.”

The central idea underlying the creation of the document—that the industry, desirous of continued Western governmental contracts, would wish to self-regulate in order to avoid damaging human rights-related incidents—is ultimately a flawed one, however. As the events of the 2008 financial crisis should have clearly demonstrated, the neoliberal, laissez-faire attitude towards industry regulation is a clear recipe for disaster. Figures such as the former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who said just a year before the 2008 financial crisis that, “thanks to globaliation, policy decisions in the US have been largely replaced by global market forces,” demonstrated the neoliberal belief in the overwhelming power of markets to deliver benefits for all as long as they are left to their own devices. 

However, even such a champion of self-regulation as Greenspan recognized too late the error of this was of thinking, saying in testimony before the House Government Oversight and Reform Committee in the immediate aftermath of the financial collapse that, “those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders equity, myself especially, are in a state of shocked disbelief,” as even he recognized the failures of his industry to self-regulate, leading to the explosion of risky behavior that led to the subprime mortgage meltdown. However, even being confronted with the full extent of self-regulations’ failures, a neoliberal such as Greenspan could not resist seeing this failure as an isolated incident, saying in the same House testimony that, “I suspect that we are going to find that this is a very chastened market and that many of the problems that we’ve observed during the euphoria stage of the [industry] expansion will not be back if—at any time if ever.” Despite this, the industry continued acting recklessly, whether it was the LIBOR manipulation scandal or the foreign exchange manipulation scandal, demonstrating the frequent dangers of self-regulation.

As UNLV William S. Boyd School of Law’s Benjamin P. Edwards wrote back in 2017, “the main premise behind self regulation is that ‘the industry has a strong incentive to police itself in order to maintain its quality,” though he is careful to note that, “profit-seeking industry self-regulators will likely define ‘misbehavior’ as actions that impose costs or reduce the profits of the industry as a whole—not necessarily as activities that reduce investor welfare or generate costs elsewhere,” with the example given that self-regulating manufacturers may not limit pollution because their far-off customers may not bear the environmental costs generated by their operations. The same thing is true with the PMSC industry, in that while industry-led efforts such as the Montreux Document strive to maintain the industry’s overall quality, the profit-seeking pressures incumbent on industry actors will tend to push them towards punishing only behavior that impacts the industry’s bottom line, and not embracing rules and regulations that limits firms’ ability to contract with clients who may not have the same concerns about human rights and international humanitarian law as Western audiences. 

Just as banks’ own, “customers may even prefer pollution-spewing factories because they pay less for goods and bear no liability for the environmental cleanup,” many of the PMSC industry’s biggest growth clients, from the United Arab Emirates to Russia or China may not have the same human rights concerns regarding the industry as do many experts in the West. Indeed, as Christopher Spearin wrote for the National Defense University’s PRISM back in June of 2020, “due to the aggressive bent of some Chinese non-state actors, the resource-centric elements of China’s relationship with Africa and the BRI, and the fact that China is not a signatory to the Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights, one could envision a more provocative and assertive China following a similar path,” to that of Russia, which has used its PMSCs such as Wagner to further the state’s extractive interests in Africa despite frequent human rights violations by these firms in securing thsoe extractive rights. 

Ultimately, while industry best practices are an appropriate interstitial step towards binding international regulations, they cannot be the sole points of guidance for the industry, as the lack of any real enforcement mechanisms renders the Montreux Documents’ some seventy recommendations as simply suggestions with no legal force whatsoever. While the U.S. Department of Defense has requirements for conformance with relevant industry standards such as ANSI/ASIS PSC.1-2012 or ISO 18788, which, “implement the recommended good practices of the Montreux Document,” not all States have developed such requirements and even DOD does, “not require membership, certification and oversight,” by the International Code of Conduct for Private Security Service Providers’ Association (ICoCA). 

Moreover, as Kinsey and Mayer wrote in their piece for Defence-in-Depth, “there are 27 ongoing armed conflicts in the world today, at least 19 of which include activity by armed contractors,” demonstrating the troubling lack of tangible deliverables from the Montreux and ICoC processes. As Kinsey and Mayer continue, the example of Yemen, whose, “Ministry of Interior and Trade recognises 35 domestic companies that meet the ICoC definition of a PSC, as well as the activity of foreign PMSCs,” despite neither the country nor any of its domestic firms being ICoCA members. More concerningly, Kinsey and Mayer argue, recent amendments to the ICoC that expanded the scope and definition of what constitutes security services might, “have the effect of opening the political and normative gates to legitmising combat provider organisations such as Russia’s quasi-mercenary group Wagner and the South African PMC Specialised Tasks, Training, Equipment and Protection (STTEP),” as the, “changes to the ICoC will make direct support to [combat] operations, as well as military training, acceptable roles for the market to take on.” Kinsey and Mayer caution that, “outsourcing this type of activity without sufficient state oversight and control also carries considerable risks to human rights.” 

Further hindering industry-led efforts to self-regulate, as the Rebecca DeWinter-Schmitt edited, “Montreux Five Years On: An analysis of State efforts to implement Montreux Document legal obligations and good practices,” notes, by 2013, “it ha[d] become evident that, in terms of demonstrated compliance with legal obligations and implementation of Good Practices, progress has been mixed,” as some States did well in some areas while others lagged behind, with the result that the mixed records of implementation of Good Practices has made it, “nearly impossible to assess whether or not the Montreux Document is having the desired impact on improving human rights protections for people and communities affected by PMSCs’ activities and ensuring accountability for misconduct of PMSCs and their personnel.” 

The UN Working Group on the Use of Mercenaries and a Binding International Convention

In 2005, the UN’s Commission on Human Rights and Human Rights Council recommended the formation of a Working Group on the Use of Mercenaries (WGUM) made up of five independent experts to present proposals on new standards and guidelines on protecting the right of peoples to self-determination when facing threats posed by mercenaries; to seek contributions from governments and intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations on questions relating to its mandate; to monitor mercenary-related activities around the world; to identify emerging issues and trends regarding mercenaries or their related activities, especially their impact on human rights; and to study the effects of private companies offering military assistance, consultancy, and security services on the international market on the enjoyment of human rights, particularly the right of peoples to self-determination. What’s more, as Saeed Mokbil, Chairperson-Rapporteur for the WGUM argued in 2018, “mercenary-related activities undermine [Sustainable Development Goal] 16.2 to end abuse, exploitation, trafficking, and all forms of violence against and torture of children.” 

Unfortunately, the Working Group has received little support from Western governments. Despite the Working Group having discovered, “that there is a regulatory legal vacuum covering the activities of PMSCs and a lack of common standards for the registration, and licensing of these companies as well as for the vetting and training of their staff and the safekeeping of weapons,” there has been little Western support for its attempts to create a Draft Convention due to a combination of Western states fearing that the proposed Convention would place too stringent limits on the industry and a belief that existing industry codes of conduct (discussed more below) suffice to as far as industry guardrails. 

Still, the proposed Draft Convention—which has been in the works for over five years—has many positives and would, ideally, form the basis of a binding international regime governing the PMSC industry moving forward. 

To Be Continued…

Featured

Unaccountable is Unacceptable: On the Need to Increase U.S. Security Sector Accountability

April 21, 2023

As a recent report from the Stimson Center and the Center for Civilians in Conflicts’ (CIVIC) Rosie Berman, Dan Mahanty, and Annie Shiel argues, “accountable state security institutions are a cornerstone of good governance,” and that when, “governments fail to hold…their security institutions accountable, or when external and internal sources of instability fail, public trust begins to fray, cycles of harm continue, and democracies begin to fracture.” 

A sense of accountability, the authors note, brings a range of benefits to both victims and survivors as well as governments and wider society. Furthermore, building up greater levels of accountability around U.S. security institutions would provide a boon to democracy’s proponents at a time when many people—both inside the U.S. and abroad—are questioning that form of government’s ability to deliver real results for communities. Moreover, grappling with longstanding issues of accountability may be the only way that the U.S. can reckon with that harm that it caused in its operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, and elsewhere. 

Ultimately, the U.S. would do well to reflect on the advice contained in the Tactical Directive that General Stanley McChrystal issued to NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan back in July of 2009 when he said that while the coalition must use the tools at its disposal to both defeat the enemy and protect coalition forces, that, “[the coalition] will not win based on the number of Taliban [that] we kill, but instead on our ability to separate insurgents from the center of gravity – the people. That means we must respect and protect the population from coercion and violence – and operate in a manner which will win their support.”

However, too often, both in the past and the present, the U.S.’ own security institutions have failed to live up to even this rather humble goal. Moreover, nowhere is this sense of impunity more apparent than in the recent reports that the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), up to and including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin—Austin himself being an all too recently retired member of the U.S. armed forces—has objected to aiding the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague by providing information gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies on alleged Russian atrocities committed during their invasion of Ukraine. 

For far too long, the United States’ security establishment has paid mere lip service to the concept of accountability for security forces—for both its own and its partners’ abroad—which has not only undermined U.S. values rhetoric around the world but has led—indirectly at the very least—to a spate of recent coups throughout Africa and the Caribbean conducted by U.S.-trained military forces. To paraphrase what Aude Darnal and Evan Cooper wrote in a piece for the Atlantic Council back in August 2021, “this is not an issue confined to [one country]. While US security assistance to stable and developed allies does not usually suffer from this, Washington often assists security forces in fragile countries that commit human-rights abuses, which goes against US interests and its purported values.”

The essential issue, therefore, is that while the U.S. often espouses lofty goals for its own forces and its security sector assistance partners, the Department of Defense focuses far too much of its equipment, funding, and training on merely building up the tactical capabilities of its fragile partners’ militaries while not ensuring that these partners are going to behave in ways that the U.S. public would support. Moreover, this disconnect between American rhetoric and the behavior of its own and its partners’ security forces—now to mention how its leaders conduct American security sector assistance efforts and their views on holding human rights violators to account—demonstrates a fundamental failure on the part of senior decision makers to properly balance force protection concerns with the responsibilities that the security sector has towards civilians both in their own operations and in conducting assistance and reform efforts abroad. 

As the legendary Lt. Colonel John Paul Vann once remarked to the nearly equally celebrated Colonel David Hackworth regarding the U.S. 9th Infantry Division’s excesses during operation Speedy Express in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, “Once the 9th’s out of here, I reckon that 80 to 90 percent of the Delta’s population will come to our side. You guys have been the VC’s biggest recruiter. You kill a boy’s mama, which side do you reckon he’ll join?” Or, as Gen. McChrystal would say more recently while conducting counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan, “so what we were trying to do was tell people–and I was trying to communicate it in a way that emphasized that the only thing that matters here is winning. Now, the only way we win is not by killing more Taliban, but by convincing people of the efficacy of our strategy, and of our commitment to their protection.”

From failures to investigate alleged incidents of civilian harm caused by its own forces to frequent negligence in ensuring that partner militaries trained and equipped by U.S. troops would adopt and internalize lessons regarding human rights to arguing against the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, top-level U.S. security sector decision makers have repeatedly demonstrated that their actions too often do not match their more lofty rhetoric. It is well past time that this pattern of behavior is remedied and reversed. 

The issue of accountability in the U.S. security sector extends beyond the conduct of the U.S.’ own military personnel during overseas conflicts and its willingness to track and punish incidents of civilian harm in its operations. It also includes the actions of partner militaries that receive assistance from the U.S. government. This is particularly relevant in the context of countries where the U.S. has provided training and equipment to partner militaries, such as Saudi Arabia, Cameroon, or Uganda. These partnerships are intended to strengthen the capacity of these countries to address security threats, but they can also result in human rights abuses and other violations. Therefore, increasing accountability for recipients of U.S. security sector assistance abroad is just as critical as addressing the conduct of U.S. military personnel in these conflicts.

Failing to Achieve Accountability: A Mindset Problem

Initially floated in 2001 by then-Colonel Charles J. Dunlap, Jr., the term “lawfare” was coined in the context of a paper from now-retired-General Dunlap where he argued that international law was fast becoming a vehicle to exploit U.S. values in ways that increase risks to civilians. More specifically, Dunlap argued that, in the early days after 9/11, “Americans are much more concerned about finding and stopping the perpetrators of violence than they are about the niceties of international law,” and that, at the time, with respect to Operation Enduring Freedom, he agreed with the statement of White House spokesman Ari Fleisher who had observed that, “I don’t think you’ll ever witness a nation that has worked so hard to avoid civilian casualties as the United States has.” 

While the term has evolved in the two decades since Dunlap first coined it to mean a legal tool used by enemy states and insurgents alike to undermine legitimate U.S. military objectives abroad, today the term still seems to carry with it a negative connotation amongst military practitioners who would seem to agree with David B. Rivkin, Jr., and Lee A. Casey who wrote back in 2000 that the growing corpus of international law represented an assault on the Westphalian system as well as a more general threat to American sovereignty. 

Indeed, when looking at the lengths that the Department of Defense has gone to in order to avoid both legal scrutiny and Congressional oversight of not only its own activities but its operations with partner and proxy forces around the world, it is not too hard to see how DOD is organizationally resistant to any type of restraint on its ability to conduct what it sees as the correct ways to combat America’s enemies abroad. Moreover, as was argued by the Aude Darnal and Evan Cooper in an August 2021 piece for the Atlantic Council, “at the root of the problem is that SSA is frequently used by the executive branch to deepen ties with partner governments with little guidance on its long-term purpose and few repercussions when it is misused or ineffective in achieving US goals,” with the ties to partner governments being valued over the lives and human rights of foreign nationals affected by U.S. training and equipment. More specifically, as Daniel Mahanty wrote for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) back in 2020, “ the United States almost always has competing short-term interests that do not readily align with the prospects of institutional reform of the security sector,” with the result that civilians are left to absorb the consequences. 

Despite DOD’s heedlessness, a growing body of data has demonstrated that U.S.-caused civilian casualties in operations led by our forces or by our partners and proxies can not only lead to negative overall impressions of the United States and Western involvement more generally, but can directly lead to an increase in insurgent attacks in the long-run, making U.S. forces less safe than had they curtailed attacks to limit civilian casualties or limited who they partnered with to avoid working with abusive and poorly-behaved units. From Afghanistan to Western Africa, the data has made clear that by not putting a premium on human rights and the safety of civilians over and above its immediate tactical considerations, decision makers may actually be increasing the long-term risks to U.S. forces and partner governments in hopes of reducing short-term dangers. 

Three Areas of Failure: U.S. Forces, Partner/Proxy Forces, and the ICC

While there are a variety of ways in which the U.S. has failed to, “make state power accountable to those subjected to state violence,” the three primary, and often most glaring, examples of that failure are when the U.S. does not prioritize the protection of civilian lives in its own operations, when it fails to address concerns about the behavior of partner or proxy security sector units, and when it impedes investigatory efforts at International Criminal Court. 

While the U.S. has taken some steps in recent years to address civilian harm caused by its own operations—especially through the creation of a Department of Defense Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan (CHMR-AP) that is still in the works—there has been less efforts towards improving the behavior of U.S. partner and proxy forces and the Defense Department’s resistance towards the ICC continues. What’s more, as illustrated by the frequent failures of the Defense Department to adhere to the strictures of the Leahy laws, DOD’s creation of the new CHMR-AP—which has yet to receive its DOD Instruction providing concrete details on how the program will work in practice—may just be more empty promises. 

As was documented by Thomas Gregory for the European Journal of International Security back in March of last year, during the war in Afghanistan, “coalition [body] counts did more than simply document the death and destruction on Afghan civilians…[they] were also complicit in the violence that was being counted,” as instead of being used to simply help reduce the number of civilians killed, these efforts were actually, “used to ‘manage’ the problem of civilian harm, providing commanders with data that could be used to contest allegations they considered untrue and to contextualise allegations they considered inaccurate.” Moreover, Gregory continued that, “whereas counting civilian casualties is normally viewed in terms of obfuscating or illuminating the harm inflicted in warzones,” in Afghanistan, “counting civilian casualties [was] used to enable and enhanced the violence inflicted on the battlefield as part of coalition attempts to maximise its efficiency,” pointing to the work of Joint Civilian Casualty Study co-author Larry Lewis, who told Gregory that the creation of the Civilian Casualty Tracking Cell in Afghanistan was, “initially launched as a public relations exercise, designed to help manage ‘reputational risk,’” as it had been determined that civilian deaths were proving to be a tactical and strategic detriment to the coalition’s operational plans. 

U.S. security sector assistance to partners around the globe similarly evinces a fundamental lack of care regarding the welfare of civilians. As scholars Jesse Dillon Savage and Jonathan D. Caverly have noted, there is “a robust relationship between US training of foreign militaries and military-backed coup attempts,” even when limiting their focus to International Military Education and Training (IMET) programming that is specifically intended to foster, “greater understanding of and respect for civilian control of the military.” Their research has demonstrated that, “FMT [positively] correlates to the likelihood of a successful military-backed coup,” even in cases where, “analysis is limited to democracies,” illustrating the difficulty in altering security sector norms and the danger of increasing the tactical capabilities of a branch of government that may subsequently refuse to take orders from civilians without guns.

Moreover, while there is clear evidence that U.S. security sector assistance improves the tactical capabilities of partner forces, U.S. efforts in Nigeria especially demonstrate the fact that, as Stephen Watts, Alexander Noyes, and Gabrielle Tarini have written for the RAND Corporation, “aside from some limited gains in defense procurement and logistics, there is scant evidence that U.S. assistance [to Nigeria] has resulted in decreased corruption, improved respect for human rights, improved civil-military relations, or any other high-level security-governance objectives,” pursued by the U.S. since 1999. 

Finally, as was noted by Adam Keith in a 2022 piece over at Just Security, the United States’ “oppositional stance” towards the International Criminal Court’s investigations in Ukraine, “cannot be reconciled with its interests in supporting justice,” as senior U.S. decision makers continue to object to the court’s ability to prosecute individuals from non-member countries despite even U.S. allies not taking that legal position seriously

In all three cases, senior U.S. decision makers—mostly at the Department of Defense—have seemingly obstructed—or at least refrained from aiding—efforts towards incorporating what is widely seen as institutional best practice by placing a premium on the protection of civilians in both its own operations and those operations conducted by troops it trains and equips. However, too often, short-term thinking rules the day as tactical considerations overtake strategic ones and the desire to defeat the enemy today becomes an impediment to clearing the battlefield of future combatants. 

It is important, therefore, to understand how civilian casualty incidents can influence the prevalence of future attacks on coalition or partner forces as well as impact overall mission success both in the short- and long-term. As was also pointed out by Thomas Gregory, the London School of Economics’ Radha Iyengar has found that, “civilian casualties caused by coalition forces [in Afghanistan] led to an increase in attacks on coalition forces that persisted for fourteen weeks after the civilians were killed.” Moreover, Neil Shortland, Huseyin Sari, and Elias Nader note in a 2019 paper for Armed Forces & Society that, “ISAF-caused civilian casualties result[ed] in decreased support for ISAF,” despite Taliban-caused civilian casualties not resulting in a similar decrease in support for the insurgents. 

Also examining the effect of ISAF-generated civilian casualties on the war effort in Afghanistan was Luke N. Condra, Joseph H. Felter, Radha K. Iyengar, and Jacob N. Shapiro, whose “The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq,” argues that in Afghanistan, “ISAF-generated casualties ha[d] a statistically significant effect on the long-run trend in civilian casualties,” as an ISAF-generated civilian casualty incident typically resulted in an increase in violence over the following two month period. Moreover, as Joseph H. Felter and Jacob N. Shapiro write in, “Limiting Civilian Casualties as Part of a Winning Strategy: The Case of Courageous Restraint,” coalition-caused civilian casualty incidents, “led to approximately two additional attacks over the next two weeks in the average district,” and that, “in 2007 and early 2008, the median Coalition-caused civilian incident led to approximately 1.6 fewer tips,” regarding the locations of IEDs from local Afghans. Taken together, Condra et al. argue, “this evidence supports the hypothesis that in order to reduce violence to ISAF soldiers, units should seek to minimize civilian casualties during operations.”

Digging deeper into the effects of civilian casualties on the provision of tips to the coalition by locals, Andrew Shaver and Jacob N. Shapiro argue in a 2021 paper for the Journal of Conflict Resolution that their research finds, “a robust relationship between indiscriminate violence and informing,” as, “self-reported victimization by the [ISAF] correlates with lower support for ISAF and higher support for the Taliban.” Shaver and Shapiro’s work demonstrates that the effect of civilian casualties is a two-way-street—even if it is an unequal one—as their model shows that while, “an additional insurgent-caused civilian casualty leads to approximately .24 more tips,” received by the coalition that week while, “an additional Coalition-caused civilian casualty leads to approximately .64 fewer [emphasis added] tips in the next week.” While very low numbers in absolute terms, Shaver and Shapiro argue that, “while modest in magnitude,” these figures, “are substantively significant,” as, “in the median week in which insurgents caused civilian casualties, they killed four civilians, predicting one additional tip to Coalition forces,” representing a significant 5% increase in the total number of tips received. 

Source: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/explaining-support-for-combatants-during-wartime-a-survey-experiment-in-afghanistan/B0E55BA87D4EBF66F0BF6135959541A7
Source: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/explaining-support-for-combatants-during-wartime-a-survey-experiment-in-afghanistan/B0E55BA87D4EBF66F0BF6135959541A7

The change in the number of tips provided after an alleged incident of civilian harm caused by the coalition is even more significant due to the fact that, as argued by Jason Lyall, Graeme Blair, and Kosuke Imai in, “Explaining Support for Combatants During Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan,”  the authors, “anticipate that in-group harm does not lead to either increased support for the out-group or to a significant loss of support for-ingroup combatants,” while, “harm by the out-group…is likely to increase out-group antipathy while heightening support for in-group combatants,” demonstrating that out-group harm committed by ISAF troops on civilians is likely to have a much more impactful result on the local populace than a human rights violation from a fellow citizen. Indeed, as the authors continue, “there is clear evidence that victimization by ISAF and the Taliban has asymmetrical effects on individual attitudes.” 

More specifically, they note that, “harm inflicted by ISAF is met with reduced support for ISAF and increased support for the Taliban,” while, “in contrast, Taliban-inflicted harm does not translate into greater support for ISAF and has only a marginally negative effect on Taliban support.” While the authors find that subsequent attempts to make amends for the incidents of civilian harm—which will be discussed later on—do largely appear to be successful, Lyall, Blair, and Imani argue that, “wartime attitudes are shaped by intergroup biases that create durable expectations about the responsibility and blame for combatant actions towards the civilian population,” leading the population to condition their interpretation of events based on the identity of the group alleged to have committed the event. 

What’s more, as Lyall, Blair, and Imani also demonstrate, “positive actions by one’s own in-group are…viewed as arising from the innate disposition of in-group members while similar actions by the out-group are interpreted as situational in nature.” In essence, the belief among locals often is that, “the out-group was compelled by the situation to undertake a positive act, whereas the in-group did so because of its inherent nature,” and that, “negative actions by an in-group…are understood as situational in nature (‘forced to be bad’) while negative actions by the out-group confirm biases about the out-group and its members as bad actors.” Collectively, their research demonstrates the fact that since local populations are likely predisposed to place a greater level of blame for civilian harm incidents on those they regard as outside interlopers than they are the members of even domestic insurgencies, the importance of protecting civilian lives in U.S. and partnered operations is only becoming more paramount. 

Similarly, as current Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl’s “In the Crossfire or the Crosshairs?: Norms, Civilian Casualties, and U.S. Conduct in Iraq,” notes, the result of the blame for civilian casualties being placed on U.S. and other foreign forces has resulted in a situation where, “the belief that U.S. forces regularly violate the norm of noncombatant immunity—the notion that civilians should not be targeted or disproportionately harmed during war—has been widely held since the outset of the Iraq conflict,” as U.S. military efforts to curb civilian casualties still resulted in thousands of Iraqi civilians dead at the hands of U.S. forces. 

More distressingly, the U.S. too often fails to redress the harm that it causes through its operations, primarily by failing to disperse post-harm compensation—or condolence/ex gratia/solatia—payments to victims and their families. Moreover, even under the new DOD CHMR-AP, the Department has announced that it will not review past incidents of civilian harm that it has already confirmed as credible despite Congress providing it with a $3 million annual budget to address incidents where an operation may have gone off of the rails. Compounding the perplexing nature of this decision by DOD is the fact that multiple studies have shown that, “there is a convincing strategic rationale for combatants to distribute post-harm compensation to civilian victims in war zones because doing so significantly undercuts enemy attacks and attempts to exploit their battlefield mistakes.”  

Source: https://civiliansinconflict.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/compensating-civilian-casualties_nov_2008.pdf#page=22
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As former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey has asserted, it is past time that the military learned the lessons of the past two decades of operations, including that, “strategic objectives and ethical leadership are undermined if civilian protection is not integrated into the military’s overall approach.” Moreover, as Larry Lewis and Sarah Holewinski posited a decade ago, “a growing body of research…shows that civilian casualties (CIVCAS) and the mishandling of the aftermath can compel more people to work against U.S. interests,” and that, “America’s image has suffered for years under the weight of anger and dismay that a nation, which stands by the value of civilian protection in wartime, seemed indifferent to civilian suffering.” 

Not only does making amends increase the number of potentially life-saving tips that coalition forces receive from locals, potentially leading to saved coalition lives, but as Daniel Silverman wrote in 2020 for International Organization, “compensation provided by the Coalition to its civilian victims in Iraq from 2004 to 2008 substantially reduced ensuing insurgent violence in affected areas…giving combatants a strong strategic incentive to compensate civilians they harm in war.” Furthermore, as the Lyall, Blair, Imai piece similarly demonstrates, “postharm aid appears less about persuading civilians to move toward one’s side as it is about shifting away from the rival combatant,” meaning that while a robust postharm amends process will not instantly transform the local populace into patriotic supporters of the United States, it can at least help to prevent any kind of shift in support towards the insurgency. 

Lyall et al.’s research has unfortunately revealed that, “the more likely a unit is to receive armed resistance from aggrieved villagers, the less likely ISAF will return to disburse payments,” and that, “given closer media scrutiny, mass casualty events are more likely to be followed by postharm mitigation efforts. Aggrieved individuals in small-claims cases, by contrast, are often forced to go to military bases to receive their funds, discouraging all but the most determined and risk acceptant claimants.” In essence, if the military errantly drops a Hellfire missile on ten of your civilian relatives in Kabul, including seven children, and the New York Times obtains footage of the incident, no U.S. troops will be held accountable for the mistake, but you may, at long last, receive some kind of compensation and apology from the U.S. government. 

However, the Lyall, Blair, Imai piece and other research has revealed troubling limitations to the compensation process for civilians harmed in U.S. military operations. For example, in cases of accidental civilian harm caused by U.S. ground troops, the most a victim’s family might hope for is a $500 symbolic payment as an expression of “sympathy and good will and in the best interest of the US government,” especially as, “U.S.-generated or created evidence carries more weight than evidence generated or created by local nationals,” with, “forms of evidence that tend to be dismissed are local witness statements, local official reports (police, judicial, and medical), and statements from family members.” 

Moreover, as Jonathan Tracy notes in his 2017 paper, “I am Sorry for your Loss, and I Wish You Well in a Free Iraq,” the author notes that if the Foreign Claims Act—whose language largely governs the compensation process—is taken at face value, “all [U.S. and coalition] military acts could be interpreted as ‘related’ to combat in Afghanistan and Iraq,” meaning that, “civilians standing between insurgents and U.S. soldiers during a firefight would not be eligible for compensation under the FCA for harm as long as the U.S. soldiers involved operated within the rules of engagement (ROE) and without negligence.”

By attempting to limit its liability for the harm caused during its operations, the U.S. has inadvertently created the conditions for the growth of future insurgencies and undermined its own efforts to bring stability to both Iraq and Afghanistan. Not only does the avoidance of reparations/solatia/condolence payments reduce the number of tips local nationals provide to U.S. and coalition forces, but it may shift the balance of opinion towards the enemy and against American forces in the country. As Janina Dill wrote in, “Distinction, Necessity, and Proportionality: Afghan Civilians’ Attitudes toward Wartime Harm,” there is the central issue that, “the proposition that the legitimacy of civilian casualties depends partly on the importance of the military advantage that an attack pursues—the legal rule of proportionality—did not resonate with civilians, in that they had not thought about the military importance of their attack when making sense of what happened to them. Second, affective and cognitive constraints on civilians’ interpretations of an attacker’s conduct may mean that an attack that complies with the rules of distinction and necessity will not always be perceived as unintentional and unavoidable,” all of which demonstrates that the civilian populace does not care about abstract legal principles when it comes to harm done to them. 

As such, if the U.S. wants to “win the hearts and minds” of the local populace in its future counterinsurgency efforts, it will need to pay less attention to abstract legal principles regarding liability and possible future legal claims and more about the feelings of the populace, many of whom may already possess, “cognitive biases that predispose individuals to favor (or excuse) the actions of their fellow in-group members, while simultaneously using negative actions by the out-group (like ISAF) to confirm prior prejudices.” As Jason Lyall wrote in a 2014 article for the Washington Post, “without engaging these underlying psychological biases…efforts to win hearts and minds are likely to be expensive, protracted, and, in the end, fleeting.”

Civilian Harm and American Security Sector Assistance

However, the U.S.’ problems do not simply stop with American troops inadvertently killing civilians and then DOD often refusing to make any kinds of amends towards victims and their families. The unaccountable nature of the American security sector is made even more clear when it comes to the country’s security sector assistance programs with partners abroad. A lack of conditionality, vetting, and monitoring of U.S. security sector assistance, as well as a failure to properly inculcate in parters a robust respect for human rights and a pursuit of “relationships” over institutional change all lead to a situation where the U.S.’ assistance programs fail to achieve their desired results. 

More distressingly, the United States has also frequently failed to apply existing regulations regarding the supply of arms and training to units who have or are likely to have committed a gross violations of human rights (GVHR). Through the creation of programs such as the 2017 National Defense Authorization Act’s (NDAA) 10 U.S.C. § 127e, which permits the Secretary of Defense to support foreign and irregular forces and individuals actively supporting U.S. special forces operations to combat terrorism, too often sidelining Congressionally mandated “Leahy laws” vetting of partner and surrogate units. Whether through 127e, §1202 of the 2018 NDAA, 10 U.S.C. § 333, DOD has too often sidestepped mandated Congressional oversight in order to supply arms and training to potential human rights abusers. 

For far too long, Congressional inaction on these matters has permitted the DOD and the executive branch to perform an end-run around Congress’ constitutional war powers and responsibility for oversight of the military. As Katherine Yon Ebright wrote so eloquently in her report for the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law titled, “Secret War: How the U.S. Uses Partnerships and Proxy Forces to Wage War Under the Radar,” the repeal of sections, “333, 127e, and 1202 would return the balance of power to where it stood before the war on terror,” with the Department of Defense needing to go before Congress before conducting train and equip programs with foreign partners of proxy forces. 

Even if these laws are allowed to remain on the books, they should be amended to require DOD to obtain prior Congressional approval before launching the programming from the relevant Armed Services and Foreign Affairs Committees in the House and Senate. Ebright correctly points out that even if these laws are allowed to remain active, they should be amended to require DOD to obtain prior Congressional approval from the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees in the House and Senate Armed Services and Foreign Affairs/Foreign Relations committees before launching the programming. Because, as currently structured, public reporting suggests that, “these authorities [have] been used to underwrite partnered counterterrorism operations in Somalia, Kenya, Tunisia, Libya, Cameroon, Mali, and Niger,” amongst other countries, many of which have security forces who have been credibly accused of human rights abuses. 

The underlying problem with these train-and-equip packages and the decision to continue providing them, despite ongoing human rights concerns, is that the DOD routinely fails to consider the long-term consequences of its actions. Instead, it focuses on attempting to play counterterrorism whac-a-mole, hoping that it can kill or capture its way to peace, even though all available evidence demonstrates that the U.S.’, “security-heavy approach is falling short because it exacerbates factors that militant groups exploit to provoke violence.” Despite that fact, as Eric Rosand and Marc Sommers have written for Just Security, “violent extremist groups seize opportunities via multi-pronged efforts that highlight poor and abusive governance and aim to win the support of people who feel marginalized, the U.S. government’s main response has been to bolster unpopular governments militarily.” 

This approach not only, “make[s] violent extremist groups more attractive to excluded populations forced to choose a side,” it is just a generally foolish idea to bolster the ability of abusive countries to continue their abuse. By ignoring not only the existing Leahy law regulations that are supposed to limit partnerships with abusive security forces but simple common sense that it is a bad idea to continue to partner with units that are implicated in atrocities, the U.S. not only undermines its counterterrorism efforts around the globe, but it actively undermines the future relationship with the civilian populace of that country, as they shift to viewing the U.S. as having enabled their abuse.

§ 333

The text of 10 U.S.C. § 333 provides the Secretary of Defense with the authority to conduct or support train-and-equip programs to the national security forces of one or more foreign countries for the purpose of building the capacity of those forces to conduct: counterterrorism, counter-WMD, counter-drug trafficking, counter-organized crime operations, maritime and border security operations, military intelligence, air domain awareness operations, activities that contribute to an existing international coalition operation, and cyberspace security operations. 

As Yon Ebright writes in her report, Secret War, “in 2018, the Department of Defense ran or proposed § 333 programs in at least 52 countries,” in attempts to, “build foreign forces’ capacity to counter terrorist threats.” These programs consisted of packages such as a $27.8 million program to equip the Jordanian Border Guard with night vision goggles and light weapons in order to combat smuggling and to protect the long and porous border with Syria. 

While seemingly an innocuous capability improvement and weapons provisions program, Yon Ebright points out that in actuality, “these [§ 333] programs have resulted in U.S. forces engaging in combat—including against groups that the Department of Defense has no authority to target under any AUMF,” and that, “by running train-and-equip programs in locations where U.S. forces and their partners have foreseeably come under fire, the department has been able to rely on a broad view of constitutional authority to use force in ‘self-defense’ without explicit congressional authorization.” The concern in such a scenario is that it enables the executive branch, by simply deploying troops to areas where our § 333 partners are fighting units not covered by any prior congressional Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF), to perform and end-run around Congress’ role by claiming to be acting in the “collective self-defense” of partner units, permitting U.S. forces to engage partners’ adversaries even in situations where there is no clear and direct threat to U.S. military personnel in the first place. 

The result of this extraordinary seizure of Congressional prerogative by the Defense Department is, as one congressional staffer suggested to Katherine Yon Ebright, that, “U.S. forces running § 333 programs in Eastern Europe would have the authority to respond if they discovered a Russian threat while on assignment.” By taking this view, DOD has seemingly claimed that not only does the executive branch have carte balance to station U.S. troops where they may end up engaged in hostilities due to partner forces’ decision, but also that if these operations do result in U.S. forces coming into contact with those of another major power, that DOD has the authority to escalate to a full-scale war in defense of its own or partner units. Furthermore, as will be seen below, these operations have insufficient Congressional oversight. 

Therefore, in the future, a battle such as the one near Deir al-Zour in eastern Syria in 2018 could result in a situation where an individual Delta Force, Navy SEAL, or Army Ranger Captain could—through a combination of their own actions and/or external factors—unintentionally escalate a conflict into an all-out war by attacking partner units of a near-/peer-competitor like China or Russia. Perhaps even more frighteningly, as Yon Ebright notes, “little prevents the Department of Defense from designing a § 333 program for the purpose of engaging an adversary without seeking [prior] congressional authorization.” While there is no indication that DOD has contemplated doing so as of yet, Yon Ebright does note that, “the department could simply launch a program to train and equip foreign partners that are fighting that adversary, thus placing U.S. forces in a position where combat is likely to occur.

§ 127e

One of the most egregious areas in which the Defense Department is trying to get around the Leahy laws strictures is 10 U.S.C. § 127e of the 2017 NDAA, which, in Cameroon, has allowed the U.S. to train and equip the Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR), whose troops have been credibly accused of committing gross violations of human rights during the conflict in the Anglophone region of the country. As a March 2022 report from the Intercept’s Nick Turse and Alice Speri notes, “the Defense Department made a concerted effort to continue funding Cameroonian forces but the reports of their abuse became impossible to ignore,” as the U.S. announced in 2019 that it would withhold $17 million in SSA due to the allegations of atrocities committed by Cameroonian security forces. 

Despite separate House and Senate resolutions calling on Yaoundé to improve, Turse and Speri noted that, “a State Department spokesperson confirmed that since 2019, the U.S. has aided the [BIR] through the maintenance and operation of ‘command-and-control equipment,’ training in the coordination of air and ground operations, and assistance to maintain and operate drones,” all skills that can be used against their fellow citizens in the future, which may redound negatively on the U.S. 

Additionally, despite the former head of U.S. Special Operations Command Gen. Richard Clarke testifying before Congress in 2019 that, “the use of 127e authority has directly resulted in the capture or killing of thousands of terrorists, disrupted terrorist networks and activities, and denied terrorists operating space across a wide range of operating environments, at a fraction of the cost of other programs,” these programs are all classified, so concerned parties are left to once again take the military as their word. In essence, these programs are problematic, because, as Ilaria Allegrozzi, senior Central Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch told the Intercept last year, “anytime the U.S. works in tandem with forces known to commit abuses, as is the case for the BIR in Cameroon, it risks complicity in those abuses,” and that, “if the 127e program has allowed the U.S. to exercise control over the BIR during abusive operations, then the U.S. is also liable for those abuses.” 

Source: https://theintercept.com/2022/07/01/pentagon-127e-proxy-wars/
Source: https://theintercept.com/2022/07/01/pentagon-127e-proxy-wars/

However, even when U.S. assistance was scaled back due to State Department human rights concerns, the provision of U.S.-made helicopters to Cameroon continued unabated as aircraft, armored vehicles, munitions, small arms and drones supplied to the Cameroonian government as part of the fight against Boko Haram and the Islamic State – West Africa Province (ISWAP) continued to be used against Cameroonians in the Anglophone region. This diversion of equipment from legitimate counterterrorism purposes to repressive operations against Cameroonians by the Biya government demonstrates the fact that even with efforts towards end-use monitoring, such as the Defense Security Cooperation Agency’s (DSCA) Golden Sentry Program—which conducted Compliance Assessment Visits to assess Cameroon’s compliance with DOD policy in 2019—once the weapons and training are out of American hands and in the hands of our partners, there is very little that we can do to prevent their misuse. 

Even more troubling is the fact that U.S. 127e programs have generally not been created with even this minimal level of oversight in mind, as Turse and Speri quote an anonymous government official familiar with 127e programs who said that not only do House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign relations do not receive reports on the programs, and that, “it’s true that any member of Congress could read any of these reports, but I mean, they don’t even know they exist,” adding that the programs were, “designed to prevent oversight.” Nor are relevant State Department officials often aware of these programs being carried out, as 127e only requires approval from the local Chief of Mission where proxy operations are ongoing. 

Compounding the issue even further, Katherine Yon Ebright notes, is the fact that, “few safeguards exist to prevent the use of § 127e as a de facto authorization for use of military force through proxies,” as, “the text of the provision is broad and vague, and the stakeholders involved in managing other security cooperation  programs — the Department of State, host countries, and Congress — are largely cut out of § 127e decision-making.” In sum, she argues that, “through a series of questionable legal interpretations, the Department of Defense has assumed nearly unlimited discretion to create and control partner forces.” 

While these programs do have some limited degree of oversight built in by the fact that 127e requires U.S. forces to run these programs in support of counterterrorism objectives only—not against rogue state or near-peer competitors like Syria or Russia—and the programs are required to support, “authorized ongoing military operations by United States special operations forces to combat terrorism,” these programs are often conducted through the use of military commanders’ execute orders (EXORDs), which, as Katherine Yon Ebright further notes, “are akin to agency rules…[which] have the force of law and implement relevant statutory or constitutional frameworks,” though, “as a legal matter, EXORDs cannot themselves serve as an authorization for the use of force.” 

However, despite this legal limitation, she notes that, “in practice, though, there is reason for concern that they are serving as de facto authorizations,” as many of them do not specify the authority under which they are promulgated, with many of the programs being nebulously authorized under the 2001 AUMF. Taken together, these programs are verging on lawless, with Yon Ebright offering a quote from a former senior DOD official who explained that, “U.S. forces can use § 127e partner forces to pursue objectives when they ‘don’t have authorities to have people on the ground and operating in a specific geographical location.’”

Furthermore, despite 127e programming providing an array of benefits to partners, including funds to pay soldiers’ salaries in addition to the tactical training and advanced equipment, Ebright notes that according to DOD officials, these programs, despite directly bolstering the capabilities of partner forces, do not require Leahy vetting. The logically tortuous argument used by DOD is that, “assistance under § 127e is categorized as assistance to U.S. forces, not partner forces, because § 127e partners are supporting U.S. military operations,” thus exempting 127e support from Leahy. Moreover, the same DOD official interviewed by Yon Ebright said that even if it was viewed as assistance to partner forced, DOD would not apply Leahy vetting rules to, “partners that are irregular forces, groups, or individuals”, as, “these partners would not constitute a ‘foreign security force’ covered by the Leahy Law.” despite some members of Congress recently calling for the elimination of that kind of ambiguity, and the mandatory extension of Leahy vetting to 127e programming. 

Perhaps most outrageous when it comes to DOD’s behavior with its 127e programs is the fact that, despite Congress requiring DOD to give fifteen days’ prior notification before launching a 127e program, it can bypass this period, in, as Yon Ebright notes, “extraordinary circumstances,” which changes the notification period to just 48 hours, stripping Congress of its ability to conduct meaningful oversight of potential programs. Ultimately, it lead to one congressional staffer to explain to Yon Ebright that, “the Department of Defense may take congressional feedback ‘into consideration,” but members of Congress will ‘never be the operational commander making [a § 127e] decision,” despite Congress’ constitutionally-mandated Article I powers. 

§ 1202 of the 2018 NDAA

As dangerously broad as 127e was designed, § 1202 of the 2018 NDAA, which permitted DOD to, “secretly recruit, train, and pay foreign forces and private individuals to conduct irregular warfare operations on behalf of the United States,” might be even worse. As Katherine Yon Ebright notes in an August 2022 article for Defense One, § 1202 was modeled on 127e, but instead of largely being based on the twenty-plus-year-old AUMFs authorized by Congress in the wake of 9/11 to combat terrorist groups in the Middle East, DOD instead bases its arguments for why it can use the military in self-defense against potential Russian threats through the president’s prerogative to engage in collective self-defense. While Yon Ebright concedes that, “the Biden administration has not used the 1202 authority for combat through or with partners,” in the future, “there’s no telling what a more belligerent or reckless future administration might do,” as, “the legal limitations on the 1202 authority are few.” 

Particularly concerning about § 1202 is the fact that while its language largely mirrors that of § 127e, it, “broadens the scope of permissible use to all irregular warfare operations,” with a definition of irregular that is so nebulous as to essentially cover all combat, including that against both state and nonstate actors, up to, and including, countries such as China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. In essence, by strategically placing train-and-equip units embedded with proxy or partner forces that are likely to come into hostilities with state or proxy units linked to, say, China or Iran, the Department of Defense could accidentally blunder its way into a shooting war with a peer-competitor and likely only violate the spirit of existing legislation. 

As one government official said to Nick Turse and Alice Speri of the Intercept:

The lack of oversight across levels of the U.S. government is in part the result of the extreme secrecy with which defense officials have shielded their authority over the program — and of the scant pushback they have faced. “It’s State not knowing what they don’t know, so they don’t even know to ask. It’s the ambassadors being sort of wowed by these four-star generals who come in and say, ‘If you don’t let us do this, everyone’s going to die,’” the government official said. “DOD views this as a small, tiny program that doesn’t have foreign policy implications, so, ‘Let’s just do it. The less people get in our way, the easier.’”

With Presidents of both parties continuing to maintain that they have the authority to use the military for self-defense without prior congressional authorization—defining self-defense not only to include the defense of U.S. territory or U.S. forces abroad but those of foreign partners or even in the nebulous pursuit of the “national interest”—it has allowed the executive branch to continue to expand its massive, unchecked power. As then-Senator and presidential candidate Joe Biden said to the Boston Globe back in 2007, “the Constitution is clear: except in response to an attack or the imminent threat of attack, only Congress may authorize war and the use of force.” 

Congressional Inaction

For a relatively brief period following the Vietnam war and Congressional frustration at the Nixon administration’s bombing of Cambodia and Laos, Congress awoke from its slumber in an attempt to reassert its prerogatives on the introduction of U.S. forces into hostilities. However, while the 1973 War Powers Resolution aimed to swing the pendulum of war powers back away from an increasingly imperial presidency and back towards Congress, Department of Justice lawyers in the Office of Legal Counsel have for decades successfully attempted to evade or water down the legislation, with the result that, “many legal specialists have since come to see the resolution as a largely failed effort at reining in presidential war-making powers.” 

The results of the executive branch’s legal determinations as well as Congressional apathy towards asserting its constitutional role in monitoring and limiting executive overreach on military matters is that little has changed since the 1970s, with Congress doing little to claw back its power to limit the use of U.S. troops abroad. For example, after Congress expanded Leahy to apply to not only training but also the provision of equipment or other kinds of assistance to partner forces, DOD obtained a legal determination that 127e’s predecessor law under the 2005 NDAA was not subject to Leahy vetting. This means that, “DOD assistance provided to units of foreign security forces under 127e could legally go to units that DOD and the Department of State have credible information committed a gross violation of human rights,” as noted by the International Crisis Group’s Sarah Harrison in a recent article for the Irregular Warfare Initiative

In addition, with respect to deployments authorized under § 127e of the Foreign Assistance Act, Yon Ebright’s Secret War notes that until a 2019 amendment to the law, the Department of Defense was not obligated to inform Congress of the legal or operational justifications for a given program. Indeed, even after the amendment, it remains, in Ebright’s words, “unclear that the Department of Defense provided even the limited information that Congress requested.” 

Furthermore, even if those reports would have been valuable—which is doubtful considering the fact that DODs reports are often less than illuminating in terms of detailed descriptions of the support provided to partner and proxy forces—Yon Ebright notes that, “the Department of Defense’s § 127e reports and notifications tend to be classified and designated as sensitive compartmented information (SCI),” with the result that individual Congressmembers’ staffs lack access to these secret reports and, “unable to rely on their own staffers, most lawmakers choose not to engage with § 127e reports and notifications.”

Katherine Yon Ebright notes that despite the War Powers Resolution, which stipulates that  U.S. forces are engaged in hostilities any time that they, “command, coordinate, participate in the movement of, or accompany,” partner forces into combat, U.S. presidents, “have declined to file § 4(a)(1) hostilities reports for § 127e activity,” and, “the Department of Defense also has adopted a dubious interpretation of 10 U.S.C. § 383 — which requires monitoring, evaluation, and reporting on ‘security cooperation and related activities’ — under which it exempts § 127e programs from these requirements.” As a result, “while Congress and the public receive some information on § 333 programs through the § 383 regime, they receive no information on § 127e programs.” Additionally Yon Ebright notes that, “the information that Congress struggles to obtain through formal, legislative processes cannot readily be obtained through informal requests either,” as both DOD and the State Department have failed to promptly respond to Congressional requests to catalog and provide legal justification for various security assistance programs around the globe. 

The ultimate result of this Congressional inaction has been, as Kristen A. Harkness wrote last year for the Modern War Institute at West Point, that, “of the top seven sub-Saharan recipients of US [security force assistance], five have ethnically stacked militaries,” which are designed expressly to maintain loyalty to the country’s leader and keep them in power. Moreover, Harkness continues, “by strengthening the repressive capacity of dictators,” American security sector assistance, “inadvertently undermines domestic pressures for better governance while creating new grievances. This serves to simultaneously prop up dictators while fueling violence in the very places where improved governance is most needed.”

In a similar vein, Congress has also been unable to limit or halt the executive branch’s arms sales to countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates which too often utilize American-made weapons, “in targeted strikes that have killed and injured thousands of civilians and destroyed livelihoods in Yemen,” amongst other human rights violations. As Diana Ohlbaum and Rachel Stohl wrote back in 2020 for Just Security, Congress has largely been indolent on the issue of arms sales to human rights violators, noting that, “the inability of Congress to stop these weapons transfers is not a bug in the system, it’s a defining feature. No matter how deadly the equipment or how abhorrent the end-user, Congress has never before been able to muster the two-thirds vote of both houses that is required to stop a sale the president is determined to complete.”

As Harkness’ piece concludes, through these programs, “in effect, the United States is trading short-term tactical gains in the fight against terrorism for an overall downward spiral of instability,” in the countries where we provide arms and security sector assistance. 

A New Militant Movement in Motion: Taking Congressional Power Back

Despite its previous failures, there have been some recent actions that indicate that Congress may finally be awakening from its long slumber as several members have increasingly sought to claw back Congressional control over U.S. troops being put in harm’s way. As Sarah Harrison’s piece for the Irregular Warfare Initiative highlighted, Representatives Sara Jacobs and Senator Chris Van Hollen had proposed an amendment to the 2023 NDAA which would have required human rights vetting for 127e partners. However, while the proposal did not make it into the final version of the NDAA, the attempt is a good first start towards re-levelling the playing field between Congress and the executive branch. More importantly, just a few weeks ago, the Senate finally voted to repeal 1991 and 2002 AUMFs and there are indications that the House may take up and pass the measure as well. Both of these are good indications that Congress is finally alert to the all too frequent misuse of both American troops and its security assistance abroad. 

In  “Building Security in Africa: An Evaluation of the U.S. Security Sector Assistance in Africa from the Cold War to the Present,” authors Stephen Watts, Trevor Johnston, Matthew Lane, Sean Mann, Michael J. McNerney, and Andrew Brooks argue that when it comes to American SSA in Africa, “whatever ‘success stories’ might exist are relatively modest in their impact on political violence, obscured by much larger amounts of inefficient spending, or offset by counterproductive outcomes in other cases.” Darnal and Cooper’s piece for the Atlantic Council similarly concludes that, “since the Leahy law was passed in 1997, the United States has trained and assisted a number of security forces that have gone on to commit human rights abuses and undermine democratic consolidation.” 

Essentially, the United States keeps making the same mistakes over and over again, each time expecting the result of our security sector presence or assistance to be peace and stability despite willfully neglecting civilian casualties in our own operations, failing to cut off security sector assistance to partner and proxy units who do the same, and hindering investigations at the International Criminal Court into possible gross violations of human rights by states not parties to the Rome statute. In addition, existing legislation governing the use of U.S. troops or the provision of security sector assistance, such as the Leahy laws or the 1973 War Powers resolution, have largely been neutered by a combination of Congressional inaction and—some would say outrageously—broad interpretations of the powers granted to the executive by the Constitution. 

To address the damage caused by decades of Congressional inaction and an overly broad view of what constitutes successful security sector assistance on behalf of the executive branch, Congress will not only need to repeal the Iraq and Afghanistan Authorizations for the Use of Military Force, but it will need to ensure that DOD ceases to resist its efforts to investigate and monitor partner and proxy units armed in U.S. security assistance programming as well as stops impeding efforts to investigate possible war crimes committed by Russia at the International Criminal Court. 

Fortunately, there have been a myriad of reports in recent years that have attempted to reconfigure U.S. security sector assistance to partners as well as ensure that U.S. troops themselves are not engaged in activities that could bring harm to civilians and make future U.S. efforts to reduce instability in select areas more difficult. As CSIS’ Melissa G. Dalton, Hijab Shah, Shannon N. Green, and Rebecca Hughes wrote back in 2018’s “Oversight and Accountability in U.S. Security Sector Assistance: Seeking Return on Investment,” that the U.S. needs to: more clearly define its own and its partners’ interests in order to determine where our interests overlap; conduct a baseline assessment of the partner’s political will to adhere to human rights standards and absorb American security sector assistance; to identify specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound goals for the partnership in terms of short-term crisis response versus long-term institutional capacity building; develop a security sector assistance plan that has conditionality and monitoring of how training and equipment are used to ensure that both partner and U.S. objectives are met; and executing an adaptable plan that understands that there will be bumps on the road and therefore has feedback loops with the entire security sector assistance community (including Congress) to be able to properly address failures when they inevitably occur. 

Various organizations, including the Center for Civilians in Conflict, the Center for International Policy’s Security Assistance Monitor (SAM), and the Stimson Center, have proposed additional measures to enhance U.S. security assistance. Specifically, they advocate for more comprehensive end-use monitoring of American arms provided to partner or proxy forces. To achieve this, the executive branch could incorporate human rights and international humanitarian law into all standard Foreign Military Sales terms and conditions to prohibit human rights violations as impermissible end-use violations. Additionally, a new monitoring process could be implemented to assess the use of U.S.-origin equipment by partner forces, and consequences for end-use violations could be enforced by limiting or halting future arms sales to violators. 

Moreover, CIVIC, CIP’s Security Assistance Monitor, and the Stimson Center argue that Congress can play a critical role in improving end-use monitoring. Specifically, they recommend amending the 1976 Arms Control Export Act to explicitly state that human rights and international humanitarian law violations constitute violations of the end-user agreement. Additionally, they suggest that end-use monitoring programs should extend beyond examining potential diversion risks and assess how weapons are actually used by end-users. Furthermore, they recommend that Congress receive formal notifications on potential arms transfers that include information on how use will be monitored, and that it be notified when arms transfers violate end-use agreements. Finally, Congress should consider prohibiting future arms transfers to countries where the executive branch has not held end-users accountable for violating human rights and harming civilians.

With their own related raft of suggestions, the RAND Corporation’s Stephen Watts, Alexander Noyes, and Gabrielle Tarini propose that U.S. efforts to promote institutional capacity building—in African security sectors more specifically—need to do more to incentivize partners to commit to a process of security sector reform. Too often, they note, when it comes to the Defense Department’s security sector assistance, “in some partner nations ICB is used as a mechanism to grease the wheels of so-called ‘Section 333’ training-and-equipping packages,” arguing that, “ICB is used as ‘window dressing’ or ‘fairy dust’ to justify additional funding for train-and-equip. While ICB projects are designed to enhance the capacity of partners to exercise responsible civilian control over national security forces, contribute to collective security, and absorb, apply, and sustain national security capabilities, the results have, at best, been mixed. 

To unlock the full potential of institutional capacity building (ICB) programs in enhancing future U.S. Security Sector Assistance (SSA) to partner nations, Watts, Noyes, and Tarini propose several measures. First, the executive branch should establish a common understanding of the goals of ICB programming across all U.S. agencies and departments to ensure that it promotes civilian control over partner militaries. Second, an interagency board should be created to serve as a clearinghouse for ICB programming, integrating it into the broader U.S. security sector assistance strategy for the region. Third, future security sector assistance contracts should include conditions on end-use and partner behavior, incentivizing partners to undertake genuine institutional reform of the security sector. Fourth, to foster better relationships with partner countries, U.S. personnel should be placed in long-term positions in partner countries, affording them sufficient time to build the rapport necessary to facilitate local officials’ adoption and implementation of reform measures. Finally, institutional efforts should be intensified to enhance assessment, monitoring, and evaluation of the impact of existing ICB programming on the level of U.S. influence in partner countries and their compliance with human rights standards.

In the end, Watts et al. determine that not only does the U.S. need to have a long-term plan in place in order to build up influence with African partner countries, but that the partner country needs to have leaders with the political will necessary to try to reform the country’s security sector. Moreover, the U.S. must have the personnel on the ground with the right skill sets—for a long enough period—to build up real, trusting relationships with decision makers in the partner country. However, the authors also caution that the U.S. must be flexible enough to understand when our support is being misused and have the willingness to withdraw that support if and when the partner’s security sector turns abusive. 

Andrew Miller and Richard Sokolosky, writing in the American Conservative back in 2018 would seem to agree, arguing that U.S. military assistance to the Middle East needed similar reforms, arguing for partners to have to demonstrate the their commitment to the norms of good security sector governance; that the State Department and Congress create better assessment, monitoring, and evaluation processes for existing SSA programming; that future arms sales agreements be linked to political commitments by the host country on their end-use; and that all FMS and IMET deals should contain performance metrics and expiration clauses that are based on agreed-to performance milestones between the U.S. and the partner government. 

However, ensuring that FMS/IMET contracts include more rigorous AM&E requirements and that the U.S. has sufficient personnel on the ground for an adequate period to monitor equipment and training represents just a first step towards restoring Congressional oversight over U.S. security sector assistance. In addition, Congress must make better use of existing legislation to restrict the Department of Defense’s provision of U.S. troops and training to partners, and may need to modify or add laws to ensure proper oversight by the legislative branch

When it comes to § 333 programming, Katherine Yon Ebright’s Secret War argues that Congress should, “explicitly prohibit the Department of Defense from running nonoperational security cooperation programs, like those under § 333, in or near hostile territory,” in order to reduce the likelihood of American troops inadvertently coming into contact with partner adversaries, reducing the chances that American troops have to invoke collective self-defense and draw the U.S. further into hostilities with a partner country’s adversary. 

Moreover, Yon Ebright argues that Congress needs to reform the Congressional notification process for §§ 333, 127e, and 1202 in order to, “ensure that the relevant committees receive information sufficient to assess whether U.S. forces intend to conduct or are otherwise likely to end up in hostilities,” with a requirement that DOD provide information on where U.S. forces plan to deploy and against what potential adversaries; whether any execute orders are being used as a legal basis to engage in combat against partners’ adversaries; whether the partner is or will be designated as eligible for collective self-defense ; and the risks identified by subsequent AM&E efforts. 

Yon Ebright further continues that to oversee already existing SSA programming, that Congress needs to expand the existing reporting for sections 333, 127e, and 1202 so that they include information on whether partner forces or even U.S. troops have engaged in direct combat, whether there have been any changes to the legal authorities being utilized by U.S. forces since their entry into the country, and previously identified risks that may have emerged or changed since U.S. forces arrived. While 10 U.S.C. § 383 does require DOD to assess programmatic risk, monitor implementation, and evaluate the effectiveness of programs, Yon Ebright notes that the law does not obligate DOD to share its findings on programmatic risks with either Congress or the public, limiting the usefulness of such AM&E efforts. 

Though Congress has passed a number of additional laws requiring DOD to report exercises of unit and collective defense, Yon Ebright notes that DOD’s, “compliance with these reporting and notification requirements has been lackluster,” and that, “even if the Department of Defense regularly complied with these reporting and notification requirements, relevant lawmakers — to say nothing of the public — would still be excluded from conversations about when, where, and against whom the United States uses force,” as the House and Senate Foreign Affairs/Foreign Relations committees are sidelined.  

While there are signs that Congress has awakened to the need for greater oversight, as demonstrated by § 1048 of the 2022 NDAA, which requires DOD to submit outstanding reports on EXORDs and civilian casualties resulting from U.S. military operations or face a 25% reduction in its operations and maintenance budget, more needs to be done beyond merely docking the DOD’s allowance for not completing its homework. As Katherine Yon Ebright correctly notes, existing reform proposals like the National Security Reforms and Accountability Act in the House and the National Security Powers Act in the Senate both attempt to inject new life into the War Powers resolution, but fail to combat the expansive legal theories that the Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Counsel has promulgated over the past half century to justify the expansive powers of the imperial presidency.

Just as Yon Ebright argues, Congress should instead, “denounce the collective self-defense and national-interest theories and withhold funding for activities conducted on those bases,” in order to reclaim legislative control over the continued use of U.S. forces abroad. By more strictly defining when U.S. forces are permitted to defend a partner force from attack—as well as defining what exactly constitutes a “partner force”—it would not only prevent U.S. forces from unduly risking a conflict between the U.S. and another nation, but it would curb the executive branch’s ability to become even more deeply embroiled in conflicts in Africa and the Middle East without prior Congressional approval. 

What’s more, when it comes to improving the vetting of the units that the U.S. does decide to partner with, as offered by Sarah Harrison in her piece for the Irregular Warfare Initiative, the State Department’s Bureau for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL) would be a great place to turn to. While prior analyses by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) did show that the Bureau’s vetting processes have been inconsistently applied in the past, there is no equivalent Bureau at DOD, leaving DRL the best—if not ideal—unit for the task. 

Another frequently underutilized tool for Congress is Section 502B of the Foreign Assistance Act, which provides that, “no security assistance may be provided to any country the government of which engages in a consistent pattern of gross violations of internationally recognized human rights.” More specifically, Section 502B requires the Department of State to provide yearly reports on, “the observance of and respect for internationally recognized human rights in each country proposed as a recipient of security assistance.” However, despite the law’s clear applicability to security sector accountability, the legislation has largely fallen into disuse. As John Ramming Chappell writes in an interesting paper for the Northwestern Journal of Human Rights, not only has the executive branch often blatantly disregarded Section 502B, but the courts have continued to acquiesce to the executive branch’s broad interpretations of presidential authority surrounding the use of military force. 

More damningly, Ramming Chappell’s paper illustrates that Congress has allowed the law to fall into disuse. He points out the fact that, “mentions of Section 502B in the Congressional Record steadily declined between 1985 and 2015,” falling from an average of 11.1 mentions per year during the period between 1975-1984 to just 3 per year between 2005-2014. This decline illustrates the growing gulf between executive and congressional power during the past half century. While some may argue that subsequent legislation, such as the Leahy laws, have rendered 502B less relevant, the failures of Leahy to achieve meaningful reforms by partner forces demonstrate that the broad applicability of 502B—whose restrictions, unlike Leahy, apply to all security forces in a given country and not just units found to be human rights violators—may be just the type of cudgel that the U.S. needs in order to address incidents of poor behavior by partner countries.

As Ramming Chappell argues, “using Section 502B would avoid some challenges in Leahy implementation,” since attributing GVHR abuses to individual units can be difficult, especially when survivors of those abuses are unable to precisely identify the perpetrators. Indeed, illustrating the difficulties inherent in a unit-by-unit examination of partner forces’ human rights records, Darnal and Cooper argue in a 2021 piece for the Atlantic Council, “U.S. assistance to Guinean forces…continued in subsequent years under International Military Education and Training (IMET) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) programs,” despite the fact that Guinean security forces were still regularly being accused of committing violence against civilians. 

However, as Ramming Chappell also notes, Section 502B avoids the difficulty of unit-by-unit evaluations by considering the pattern of violations at the national level rather than the unit level. Furthermore, by threatening to cease all arms sales and training, Section 502B might strengthen the application of Leahy laws by partner governments, ensuring that they bring units responsible for abuse to justice in order to avoid an aid cutoff.

Although Ramming Chappell acknowledges that the revitalization of 502B would not be a panacea for decades of Congressional torpor—as more needs to be done to enact more stringent Congressional review of U.S. arms sales and security assistance programming as well as improving the end-use monitoring of U.S. defense items that are provided to partner nations—he correctly argues that 502B, “would add an important human rights oversight tool that fills gaps between more commonly used mechanisms.” 

Similarly, Congress could also make better use of Section 7008 of the Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2021, which is “triggered in situations in which the ‘duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup d’état or decree’ or a coup d’état or decree in which the military played a decisive role in the ousting of a duly elected head of government,” as Sarah harrison wrote in a 2022 article for Lawfare. While the State Department has often struggled to apply a Section 7008 determination even in countries where coups have clearly taken place, 7008 could be used to rein in § 333 programs in countries such as Burkina Faso, where the DOD has attempted to quietly aid the junta in its battles against al Qaeda and the Islamic State despite the military-led coup in September of 2022. 

In summation, not only does the U.S. need to do a better job vetting its § 333, 127e, and 1202 security assistance partners, but it must also do more to both limit the damage done by its own troops in operations abroad and to make better efforts to make amends when it does do so. As Larry Lewis and Sarah Holewinski wrote in a June 2013 feature for the National Defense University’s journal PRISM, “civilian casualties can risk the success of a combat mission,” and despite the fact that it is not a new concept,“this is a lesson U.S. defense forces have had to repeatedly relearn.” 

Attempting to internalize this lesson in Afghanistan, British Maj. Gen Nick Carter introduced and U.S. Gen. Stanley McChrystal introduced the concept of “courageous restraint” in order to encourage their troops to consider the, “delicate balance between strategic intent and tactical necessity,” needed to reduce the number of civilian casualties and thus lessen the number of insurgent attacks on coalition positions. However, in Afghanistan, Carter and McChrystal’s vision for coalition faced institutional headwinds and when Gen. David Petraeus replaced the embattled McChrystal in 2010, the new commander’s revised Tactical Directive somewhat loosened the strictures governing calling in air strikes against Taliban targets, putting the most deadly form of attack known to civilians in Afghanistan during the conflict—airstrikes—more prominently in coalition troops’ arsenals. 

While courageous restraint did not gain widespread acceptance, it is a concept that the DOD is if it wants to improve its performance in future counterinsurgency operations. While some have expressed concerns that “courageous restraint” poses a danger to coalition troops and that, “restraining in the application of lethal force on ethical grounds ‘transfers risk’ from enemy combatants and noncombatants to U.S. forces and…creates a ‘false dilemma where one must choose between non-combatant lives, which have value, and soldiers’ lives, which do not,’” these concerns are either disingenuous or misguided. 

Those who call for the military to take on greater risk to reduce the risks posed to civilians do not claim that soldiers’ lives are less valuable than civilians’ lives. Rather, they recognize that soldiers—especially American, French, German, Italian, or British ones—are almost exclusively volunteers who understood the risks when they joined. In contrast, civilians do not have a choice about going to war, as it is often brought upon them by external forces. 

While exposing U.S. and other allied troops to increased danger is not ideal, critics of courageous restraint ignore the fact that when coalition troops killed civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq, it reduced the number of tips provided to coalition forces and, “generates resentment and anger that increases both passive and active support for insurgent groups,”  as, “to the extent that counterinsurgent forces engage in unpopular and aggressive operations that generate specific local grievances, they are likely to facilitate increased recruitment and support for insurgent groups.” Therefore, while not acting with restraint may temporarily reduce the danger for units under fire in heavily civilian-populated areas, it may, in the long run, increase the danger for future unit members who must now deal with a more hostile operational environment that has a greater number of insurgents due to the prior, un-restrained actions of fellow unit members. 

One final area where Congress needs to reassert its prerogatives is when it comes to DOD obstruction of matters at the International Criminal Court. Put simply, while the U.S. is not a party to the Rome Statute, Congress passed a Consolidated Appropriations Act back in December of 2022 that included several fixes making it easier for the U.S. to cooperate with the ICC on Ukraine. However, despite these changes, Secretary Austin is still attempting to, as Senator Lindsey Graham has said, “undermine the letter and spirit of the [December 2022] law.” 

By impeding the prosecution of Russians who are credibly accused of war crimes in places like Bucha, all in the name of avoiding a future prosecution of a future Lt. William Calley, the DOD is doing incalculable damage to its commitment to international law as well as its commitment to human rights. Placing sovereignty concerns over the welfare of civilians undercuts efforts to demand accountability for human rights violations in partner countries in Africa as it evinces a troubling double standard on the part of the U.S. 

Final Thoughts

The United States has simply not done enough to match its actions with its rhetoric when it comes to ensuring an accountable security sector both at home and with partners abroad. From a lack of concern regarding civilian casualties in its own operations to minimally supervised security assistance programming authorized under §§ 333, 127e, and 1202 to obstruction at the ICC, the U.S. security sector has too often acted shortsightedly. In order to truly live up to its stated commitments to promoting human rights and accountability, the U.S. must make meaningful changes to its security sector practices. And all of these changes must start with Congress.

From more stringently enforcing legislation on the books like Section 7008 or 502B to restrict the flow of arms and training to the armed forces controlled by military juntas to cutting off DOD funding if and when it does not comply with requirements to ensure DOD compliance with existing reporting and notification requirements to repealing the overly broad. Moreover, efforts to continue the process of repealing the 1991, 2001 and 2002 authorizations for the use of force in Iraq and the need to continue if Congress is to take back its prerogatives. As Senator Ben Cardin said regarding the 2001 AUMF back in August of 2021, “Presidents have full authority to defend our nation from imminent threats, but in Article I of the Constitution it is Congress that is given the power to declare war.” For far too long, Congress has allowed that power to atrophy as it has allowed the executive branch to take on sweeping authorities to deploy troops into danger without its consent. 

For the sake of checks and balances as well as well as the lives of civilians in future war zones and the credibility of American values rhetoric around the globe, Congress must ensure that DOD becomes more responsible in both its own operations as well as its security sector assistance to partner nations such that civilians are not unduly brought into harm’s way by unaccountable security institutions that operate with impunity. This requires a comprehensive approach that includes not only stricter enforcement of existing laws and regulations, but also a reevaluation of the broad authorizations for the use of military force that have been granted in the past several decades. Congress must take back its constitutionally-mandated role in overseeing military actions and ensure that the United States does not continue down the path of reckless and counterproductive interventions that have caused untold suffering and undermined America’s standing in the world. By doing so, the U.S. can help to build a safer, more stable, and more just world for all.

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It’s Right Outside Your Door: The Authoritarian Right’s War for History

March 23, 2023

Taking a brief pause from my research on improving U.S. security sector accountability (a new paper should be coming to these pages soon) I would like to discuss Jade McGlynn’s excellent, “Imposing the Past: Putin’s War for History,” published earlier this month in War on the Rocks. In her piece, McGlynn writes that insightful as much of the recent analysis on Vladimir Putin’s underlying motivations for the war in Ukraine have been, those analyses do not,“always convey the extent to which Putin is actually fighting the West over control of historical narratives,” and that, in response to a foreign-led assault on Russian history, Putin has launched his own historical propaganda offensive, with the ultimate goal of convincing Russians that they are members of one of the greatest and most powerful nations on Earth. 

Moreover, McGlynn argues that Putin initiated his invasion of Ukraine, at least in part, to impose his views of the past on a country that he felt was deliberately misrepresenting it. McGlynn submits that despite Putin’s—largely successful—attempts to weaponize a particular national narrative of Russian history, especially since the beginning of his third term in 2012, and his efforts to achieve Russian cultural consciousness, those efforts have still failed to yield results in his “special military operation” in Ukraine, where the local population turned out to have a much deeper commitment to and belief in the validity of their country’s statehood than Putin’s narrative would have the population in Russia believe. 

McGlynn’s insightful piece highlights Putin’s use of a particular version of Russian history to manipulate the populace into supporting his rule and draws attention to a crucial point that applies not only to Putin but also the larger bloc of illiberal, anti-democratic, authoritarian right-wing populist politicians who have emerged globally in recent years. It is therefore essential to recognize that Putin’s attempt to seize the Russian historical narrative—especially regarding the Great Patriotic War—is similar to other ideological battles being fought around the globe. By leveraging Russians’ extraordinary contributions to defeat the Nazis in the Second World War, Putin justifies his own kleptocratic rule. This tactic is not unique to Putin, however, as it is also being used by similar politicians throughout Europe and the United States. 

Putin’s co-optation of the Russian historical narrative is part of a larger global cultural conflict between ultra-conservative movements and a modernity that rejects ethno-nationalism as any foundation for state-building or -maintenance. This battle takes many forms, from Putin’s attempts at “denazification” in Ukraine or Governor Ron DeSantis’ crusades against medical care for trans youth, but both are, as Worth Talley wrote not long ago in a piece for the U.S. Helsinki Commission,  “a fallacious attempt to drum up domestic support…designed to resonate with a [domestic] audience.” 

Both Putin’s fabricated war against Ukrainian “Nazis” and the American right’s opposition to progressive values, including the acceptance of long-marginalized children, share a common goal: inflaming the passions of a domestic audience of conservative voters in an attempt to win or maintain political power. These reflexively reactionary efforts take on various forms, such as through memory-centered activities like Russian “memory-diplomacy,” the Trump administration’s partisan “1776 Advisory Commission” and its biased final report, Orbán’s battles against the Imre Nagy memorial, or Governor DeSantis’ war on teaching African American history in Florida. Ultimately, these efforts raise a fundamental question about whether modern societies can develop a shared identity without relying on a distorted version of the past as a unifying myth.

Furthermore, these reactionary politicians’ efforts to manipulate their respective populations are part of a broader, though not necessarily cohesive, attempt to align their own conservative historical narratives with those of like-minded movements around the world. As McGlynn notes in a 2021 article for Foreign Policy, they seek to promote a shared understanding of world history that bolsters their respective agendas

Putin and his ideological allies abroad propagate the idea that their countries are perpetually at risk of “cultural colonization” by outside forces that pose a danger to the interests of ordinary citizens who hold traditional values. They warn against the encroachment of Nazi ideologies or “woke mind viruses,” that they claim support practices like “child sexual mutilation.” This fearmongering is meant to awaken a sense of urgency in their constituencies and persuade them to resist the perceived threats to their way of life. However, these alarmist tactics are often used to distract from pressing issues within their own countries, such as rampant corruption, human rights abuses, and economic inequality.

The Battle for the Soul of the Nation(s)

All of these efforts—whether they are Putin’s efforts to and re-write Ukrainian history or Trump and DeSantis’ attempts to erase gay and transgender people from public life—are attempts to override what experts have to say on these issues in an attempt to advance conservative worldview that often uses social issues as wedges to distract voters from their own governing failures, their often unpopular efforts to—politically or financially—benefit themselves, their families, or fellow members of their own class

Moreover, those efforts speak to a larger problem that conservative politicians face as their countries become more multi-ethnic, polyglot societies. Countries such as Russia, the United States, or even Hungary are, as McGlynn notes, too ethnically and religiously diverse for religion or ethnicity to continue to function as the primary unifying element of society. However, while their populations no longer possess ethnic or religious homogeneity, authoritarian politicians in Russia, Hungary, and the United States have attempted to re-write their own countries’ history in order to create a historical narrative that defines what it means to be Russian (or Hungarian or American), legitimizes conservative rule, and reinforces the idea that theirs is a special nation with a grand destiny that must safeguarded against forces who would look to tear down or tarnish that specialness. 

To achieve these goals, conservative politicians around the world have employed various historical narratives to manipulate and motivate their voters. Putin’s hijacking of the Great Patriotic War remembrance movement to mythologize Russians’ contributions during the Second World War was an attempt to further his electoral chances. Similarly, in Hungary, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz has manipulated the memory of the 1956 revolution to buttress both his domestic rule as well as his fight against Brussels. Governor DeSantis’ attacks on the advanced placement African American studies curriculum in Florida aim to undermine any attempt to teach the reality of African Americans’ experience in the country, challenging the rose-colored view of American history that many conservatives hold. Additionally, former President Donald Trump’s 1776 Commission and his comments about America’s historical legacy of slavery represent selective use of history to manipulate voters into believing that any honest discussion of the nation’s history is an attack on America and its citizens. These attempts to rewrite history aim to create a distorted narrative that justifies conservative rule and reinforces the idea that theirs is a special nation with a grand destiny that must not be impeded.

From Putin’s use of distorted Russian history to justify his aggression in Ukraine, to Orbán’s manipulation of Hungary’s history to create a false image of Hungarian cultural homogeneity, and even to Xi Jinping’s exploitation of China’s experience in World War II to strengthen his country’s international standing—and his own domestic standing, as well—political leaders have repeatedly weaponized history for their own political gains. As Katie Stallard, a former Wilson Center Global Fellow and current Senior Editor of China and Global Affairs at the New Statesman warns, “we should be really wary of leaders who are offering these very glorious, uncomplicated visions of the past…because that really serves the people currently in power. It doesn’t learn any of the lessons of history. It doesn’t honour the sacrifices of people who did fight in these wars, and it doesn’t do anything to tackle contemporary problems in these countries.”

The battles being waged by right-wing politicians against “woke” culture in America, and against supposed liberal cultural hegemony in Europe, as well as Putin’s claims that the liberal West seeks to, “destroy [Russians’] traditional values and force on us their false values that would erode us, our people from within, the attitudes they have been aggressively imposing on their countries, attitudes that are directly leading to degradation and degeneration, because they are contrary to human nature,” all boil down to a fundamental question: will people in the future be able to have honest and frank discussions about their own countries’ past, or will they only be able to access hagiographical information about their forebears’ past activities? These battles are about whether societies will have the freedom to acknowledge the past with all its accompanying complexity and diversity, or to succumb to simplistic and one-dimensional narratives that merely serve the political interests of those in power. 

A nation’s history can be a powerful source of national pride, serving to unify ethnically, culturally, and religiously diverse populations through the creation of a shared mythology. However, while such folkloric versions of history can bring together different groups that might otherwise be at odds, they can also distort people’s views of themselves, their country, and others. As Binghamton University professor Adam Laats, who studies the history of education in the US, has pointed out, “underlying this is the never-solved dilemma about what history class is supposed to do…For some people it’s supposed to be a pep talk before the game, a well of pure inspiration for young people, and I think that is why the danger seems so intense to conservatives.” 

By propagating a narrative that Ukraine’s independence is a mere historical fiction, Vladimir Putin has attempted to control the present through the manipulation of people’s memories of the past. In the same way, Trump’s 1776 Commission and DeSantis’ attempts to rewrite the Florida educational curriculum are an attempt to suppress real—and often distressing—periods in American history in an attempt to provide a patriotic morality tale version of history instead. 

But while there is nothing wrong with the occasional fairy-tale or morality play, as they can serve a more unifying purpose in binding together more diverse parts of societies, they can become actively harmful when it permits a leader like Putin to simply dismiss the desires of the vast majority of Ukrainians or leaders like Trump and DeSantis to handwave away the fact that, as senior Brookings Institution fellow Rashawn Ray has said, “systemic racism is not simply a thing of the past. It is up close and personal in the present.” Whether allowing a leader to bury their head in the sand about their country’s past or actively creating a permission structure for them to cause harm to others, the white-washing of history by conservative—and frankly, frequently authoritarian—leaders around the globe is a growing and troubling trend.


As McGlynn rightly points out, Putin’s attempts to manipulate the historical record regarding Ukraine’s independence did not prevent his military’s catastrophic performance in the resultant war, as Ukrainians have shown Russian forces that theirs is a real nation that wishes to remain independent. However, various Russian military failures in Ukraine notwithstanding, his—and his ideological fellow travelers’—use and manipulation of the historical record to impose an in-group’s views and values on the rest of the world speaks to the worrisome direction many conservative leaders have taken in recent years around the globe. As Orwell’s O’Brien has Winston Smith repeat in 1984, “who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.” It seems that conservative authoritarians around the globe have really taken this idea to heart in recent years. Unfortunately, this could make not only for a long war in Ukraine, but a long war for the soul and future of humanity.

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Bringing Back the U.S. Civilian Response Corps: Lessons from the British Empire and the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan

March 7, 2023

In August of 2021, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) released its most comprehensive analysis of lessons learned from twenty years of U.S. and coalition attempts to vanquish the Taliban and to reconstruct the country in such a way that a democratically elected government in Kabul could eventually take over. Ultimately, the coalition’s efforts at transforming the country were unsuccessful, as Kabul fell to the Taliban the very same month that the SIGAR report was issued. 

While there were numerous mistakes and missteps that led to the ignominious U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the United States’ ultimate inability to stabilize the country after its 2001 invasion stemmed from a failure to properly ensure that it had the personnel and plans in place to attempt such stabilization and nation-building from the outset as well as a lack of understanding regarding the length of time such a program would ultimately require to complete. Moreover, as former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley said to SIGAR back in 2015, “we just don’t have a post-conflict stabilization model that works. Every time we have one of these things, it is a pick-up game. I don’t have confidence that if we did it again, we would do it any better.” 

In light of these past failures, Roger B. Myerson’s fascinating, “Stabilization Lessons from the British Empire,” for the Texas National Security Review, offers an interesting insight into both why American efforts towards stabilization in Afghanistan repeatedly failed, as well as a glimpse at how the U.S. might better approach a similar contingency in the future. In his piece, Myerson would seem to agree with Hadley that, “the frustrations and failures of costly state-building missions in recent years have created a widespread belief that nothing can be done to help states that fail.” 

For Myerson, though, there is a way out of this dilemma that can be achieved by looking at the historical example of the British Empire, where, “the primary lesson that can be drawn from the history of British colonial administration is that the management of a political stabilization mission should rely on a decentralized team of agents who can negotiate effectively with local leaders throughout the country,” with the British empire’s local plenipotentiary experts known as “district officers” serving as Myerson’s model. However, for the United States, a more American model, which has been advocated previously by SIGAR, of a reconstituted Civilian Response Corps might be the better way forward for future stabilization contingencies.

One merely has to examine another SIGAR report from 2018, “Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan,” to discover that when it came to the U.S. effort in Afghanistan, those with actual expertise in Afghan politics and stabilization were not the ones making decisions. Far from empowering knowledgeable experts on the district and below levels to accurately report on efforts towards stabilization at the village-level, the United States’ lack of any kind of coherent overall strategy for stabilization meant that there was often no knowledgeable point of contact at the village or district level to assess and evaluate any programs that were implemented, with the ultimate result being a waste of taxpayer money and a failure to stabilize the country that led to the Taliban regaining power in Kabul. Therefore, it is best to examine some of the failures to achieve stabilization in Afghanistan and how, inspired by the British Empire’s long-serving team of knowledgeable district-officers, the U.S. might reconstitute its own cadre of experts as part of a new Civilian Response Corps to prevent these problems from emerging in the first place during future contingency operations.

As the 2018 SIGAR report points out, “properly defining stabilization is particularly difficult because it is often used by policymakers in cables, strategic documents, and speeches as a vague euphemism to mean ‘fixing’ a country or area mired in conflict.” However, “on the ground in Afghanistan…stabilization refers to a specific process designed to keep insurgents out of an area after they have been initially expelled by security forces,” with most, “stabilization projects…intended to be a temporary stopgap measure to solidify the military’s gains in territorial control through improvements in local governance, better position the Afghan government to assume control and build upon the initial gains, and create the necessary conditions to allow for a coalition drawdown.” Different from the more general goals of development, stabilization programming was, especially in Afghanistan, designed to promote a short-term focus on areas of insecurity that aimed to pave the way for the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) to establish its legitimacy in the eyes of a population that had often seen little actual formal governance for years. 

However, efforts towards stabilization and governance-building ran into difficulties from the start, with initial Bush administration plans geared towards stabilizing the Pashtun-dominated south and east prior to the start of the 2004 Afghan presidential election out of fear that continued attacks would undermine the legitimacy of the fledgling Kabul government. But it is here that the U.S.’ ultimately whac-a-mole-like efforts towards stabilization would first emerge as well as well as the short-termism exhibited by decision makers whose Quick Impact Projects (QIP) were intended to allow USAID officers located within Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT) to implement projects of less than $500,000 that aimed to ultimately build support for the Kabul government. Moreover, according to Brigadier General Martin Schweitzer, who commanded U.S. forces in eastern Afghanistan during the 2005-2007 period, “what was lacking…was an interagency strategy that brought the military, USAID, State, and other civilian agencies together to plan and execute an integrated strategy,” with the result that there was never an overarching plan, with specific metrics or goals to be reached, for what a post-conflict Afghanistan would look like and how subnational governance units would fit in with line ministries in Kabul. As such, it was inherently difficult for any of the U.S.’ myriad stabilization efforts to actually achieve a coherent impact, as DOD, State, and USAID programs addressed symptoms of insecurity rather than provided the necessary scaffolding on which to build up Afghans’ trust in the government. 

Afghanistan Stabilization Programming from 2002–2017/Source: https://www.sigar.mil/interactive-reports/stabilization/index.html

While the ultimate crux of the 2018 SIGAR Stabilization report is that many of the difficulties that the U.S. faced in attempting to stabilize Afghanistan—and, concurrently, to demonstrate to local Afghans the value of the emerging central government in Kabul—stem from the Obama administration’s fateful decision to follow a brief surge of troops with a rapid withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces, it ultimately shows how these problems stem back to the very first days following the U.S. invasion back in 2001. At every step of the process, it was clear that there was no overarching plan for how individual stabilization initiatives at the village and district levels would fit into a comprehensive U.S. plan for demonstrating the value—and improving the capabilities of—the Kabul-based government. 

Lacking a coherent, down-to-the-village plan for what a post-insurgency Afghanistan would look like and how subnational governance units would address local issues with funding and direction provided by line ministries in Kabul, the Bush administration’s decision to begin stabilization efforts through the Provincial Reconstruction Teams aimed to at least legitimize Kabul’s presence in the provinces by improving security and facilitating reconstruction and development projects. However, according to a 2005 report from the United States Institute of Peace’s (USIP) Robert M. Perito, these teams lacked, “a central coordinating authority, a governing concept of PRT operations, and a strategic plan,” which ultimately, “resulted in an ad hoc approach to Afghanistan’s needs for security and development,” that was indicative of how the U.S. approached the overall concept of stabilization for the better part of twenty years. The result of which was a predictable failure to make the country secure or burnish the credibility and popularity of GIRoA or even subnational governance figures at the provincial or district levels. 

More than these ad hoc approaches, however, the timelines envisioned by U.S. decision makers either dramatically underestimated the problem or demonstrated a troublesome lack of understanding of the actual situation out in the field. This disconnect was perhaps best illustrated by the statement of USAID Assistant Administrator for Asia and the Near East James Kunder in his remarks before the House Committee on International Relations’ Subcommittees on Middle East and Central Asia and Oversight & Investigations in March of 2006, when he said that, “there are three stages in the transition strategy for Afghanistan. The first stage was from 2002-2005, the current stage is focusing on stabilization and building systems,” and that, “USAID assumes that the final stage – the normal development process will start from 2008.” 

To put it mildly, Kunder’s 2006 statement that, “things have measurably improved” since the U.S. invasion began is highly misleading. As Seth G. Jones would later write in the pages of International Security, the fighting in Afghanistan, “which began in 2002, had developed into a full-blown insurgency by 2006,” as, “during this period, the number of insurgent-initiated attacks rose by 400 percent, and the number of deaths from these attacks by more than 800 percent,” with, “the increase in violence…particularly acute between 2005 and 2006, when the number of suicide attacks quintupled from 27 to 139; remotely detonated bombings more than doubled from 783 to 1,677; and armed attacks nearly tripled from 1,558 to 4,524.” Yet despite this increase in instability, a high-ranking USAID official who should have been knowledgeable about security dynamics on the ground still testified before Congress that normal development would be able to commence in Afghanistan just twenty-four months later, a remarkably hopeful figure given the increasing levels of violence at the time. 

While Washington did eventually recognize that more needed to be done to prevent the situation in Afghanistan from deteriorating, the Bush administration at the time, “remained focused on Iraq, where security was unraveling quickly,” in the 2005-2007 period, leaving the, “decision about whether to pursue a ‘fully resourced’ counterinsurgency strategy,” in Afghanistan to the incoming Obama administration. Unfortunately, at that time—even if the Bush administration’s often limited and ad hoc stabilization programs had not likely wasted the brief time after the initial defeat of the Taliban where U.S. stabilization efforts might have done the most good—the incoming president was, “overtly searching for a short-term exit strategy,” from Afghanistan during National Security Council discussions of the Pentagon’s proposed troop surge, with the result that even in discussions about sending more troops to Afghanistan—in addition to the 21,000 the administration sent earlier in 2009—were always centered around how quickly they could ultimately be withdrawn again. While President Obama was likely correct that, “an open-ended surge would divert critical resources away from mitigating the damage from the 2008 financial crisis,” it is hard to see how the short surge timeline provided by the administration would ever result in a stable Afghanistan that justified the deployment in the first place. As a result of this short-sightedness, “the mission had all of the ambitions and expectations of a long-term counterinsurgency effort, but without the recommended, prolonged timeline.” 

Moreover, despite agreeing to the president’s rapid schedule, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Gen. David Petraeus, “also calculated the military could buy more time later if they made enough progress by the time the July 2011 deadline arrived,” despite President Obama calling Petraeus and others to an Oval Office meeting two days before his speech announcing the troop surge where he asked all of his chief advisors to agree to the 2011 drawdown timeline. 

To put it bluntly, the idea that top-ranking military figures would agree to a plan in a meeting with the president but privately hope for a change of heart later on is tremendously disconcerting and demonstrates how many top-level decision makers could never really reconcile the president’s decision to conduct a rapid withdrawal with their own conceptions of events in Afghanistan, which ultimately undermined every effort towards stabilization that followed. This failure to arrive at a unifying conception of what stabilization policy should be—including what the policy should aim towards as well as the timeframe for it to be completed—led to a situation where policymakers were essentially making things up as they went along. As the SIGAR report on stabilization notes, even as counterinsurgency (COIN) theory was evolving amongst top-level policy makers, “State and USAID had to operationalize this theory…and devise a framework for those civilian-led activities that supported COIN,” with the result that U.S. strategy, “soon moved away from [a focus] on districts seen as tipping points to those districts that had long since tipped towards the Taliban,” in what would become known as the clear-hold-build approach to Afghanistan’s insurgency issues. 

In a shift from prior practice, where focus was mainly, “on areas that were contiguous to already stable regions,” priority shifted to, “‘critical high-population areas’ that included ‘key infrastructure’ and were controlled or contested by insurgents.” It is here that U.S. stabilization strategy under Obama took what may be a second fateful turn, as a clear-hold-build approach would ultimately, as David H. Ucko wrote in a 2013 article for War on the Rocks, “have a tendency to wish away the very problems that cause insurgency in the first place: a lack of government legitimacy, split loyalties among the population, and contested governance among a range of armed political groups,” especially as U.S. and coalition forces struggled to consolidate security gains and extend the control of the GIRoA. To paraphrase what Ucko wrote about NATO forces in his piece: in the counterinsurgency vernacular, U.S. forces cleared, but struggled to hold and build.

What’s more, the problems with the clear-hold-build strategy were not only visible after the fact, but were immediately apparent even to Afghan government representatives who, “expressed concern about this approach from the outset,” arguing that, “only districts that Afghan and international security forces could hold over the long term should be targeted with ministerial support.” Furthermore, despite coalition stabilization efforts being focused on the most insecure parts of Afghanistan, soon after these districts were identified as the primary focus for stabilization programming, “dozens of civ-mil District Support Teams (DST) were staffed with personnel from State, USAID, and USDA,” where, “once on site, DST personnel were tasked with integrating all stabilization activities and planning at the district level to build local governance capacity,” despite these areas often not being entirely secure and Afghan governing partners often not being empowered to operate freely without the approval of the provincial governor. 

However, even as USAID’s Provincial Reconstruction Team office was rebranded as the Stabilization Unit (Stab-U) in February of 2010, with a clearer definition of stabilization as, “help[ing] to reduce key [sources of instability] by engaging and supporting at-risk populations, extending the reach of [the government of Afghanistan] to unstable areas, providing income generation opportunities, building trust between citizens and their government, and encouraging local populations to take an active role in their development,” the interstitial steps required to actually extend the GIRoA’s reach to contested districts and build trust between the populace and the government were never clearly defined by policy makers to a granular level, leaving each region to devise its own strategy, and preventing any unified “theory of change” from emerging, preventing the uniform institution of stabilization programing across the country.

As a result of this haphazard approach to stabilization programming, which included programs such as the Community Development Program (CDP) and Afghanistan Vouchers for Increased Productive Agriculture (AVIPA), various cash-for-work programs were initiated that were intended to build community relationships with government officials that would select laborers from competing local groups for construction projects. However, while that approach was seen as a way to quickly and easily win the hearts and minds of local civilians—by giving them jobs that they often desperately needed while simultaneously reducing the number of men that might pick up a rifle for the insurgency—the individuals administering these cash-for-work programs, “spent indiscriminately because the number of laborers hired and person-days of employment were the primary measure of success,” since the U.S. often had little if any presence on the ground to conduct a more robust evaluation of project impacts. 

What programs like CDP and AVIPA demonstrated was that U.S. decision makers had little idea of how they would measure progress towards stabilization in Afghanistan beyond the most basic metrics of projects started or the number Afghans hired for those projects. While the ultimate goal of using community labor as a method to positively connect the population to their government likely emerged out of a sincere desire to give potential insurgents a better alternative to picking up a rifle, their ultimate effect was very different. The ways in which these programs were implemented not only failed to transform Afghans’ opinions of the Kabul government but often wildly, “distorted local economies, increased support for the Taliban in areas they controlled, created aid dependencies, exacerbated local conflict, and paid communities to do what they traditionally did for free,” especially as political advisor to the Marines, March Chretien, told SIGAR in 2016 that, “in Helmand, anywhere between 3-5 percent of those [cash-for-work] laborers came up hot on BATS-HIIDE,” the Biometric Automated Toolset and Handheld Interagency Identity Detection Equipment for known insurgents. 

While the ultimate blame for these failed programs is difficult to allocate, as, “some senior USAID officials said ISAF bulldozed the agency into going along with clear-hold-build and demanded that it implement cash-for-work programs on a large scale despite USAID’s protest,” and others said that, “ISAF only needed to cite President Obama’s words and ask USAID, ‘How else are we going to do this if not quickly and in the most dangerous areas?’” the surge and withdrawal timelines demanded by the Obama administration, coupled with the wasted years under the Bush administration, resulted in a situation where rapid progress was demanded from both the military and development communities, which ultimately precipitated these slapdash programs. 

These mistakes were compounded by U.S. decision makers essentially forcing the development community to be subordinate to the military, with one senior USAID official observing that, “We had to get in line. The military was in charge. We were always chasing the dragon—always behind, never good enough in the military’s eyes. Then ambassadors were yelling at USAID because they were receiving complaints from General Petraeus or the battle space owner that USAID was not being cooperative. It was the battle space owner who told us to move to another location, and if we didn’t, word got to the ambassador, who yelled at the [USAID] Mission Director, who yelled at me.” 

What’s more, despite the fact that DOD had no prior history of successfully conducting economic development in the countries where operated in nor the institutional expertise to realistically believe that it could promote investments in key sectors, the Department stepped up projects like the $675 million Task Force for Business and Stability Operations (TFBSO), which, as Sopko notes in a separate 2019 piece for National Defense University’s Prism, “made minimal economic impact and quite a few questionable decisions,” such as a choice to spend millions constructing a compressed natural gas station in Sheberghan despite no cars in the country that ran on the fuel. As a result, Spoko wonders, “whether an effort such as TFBSO would have been undertaken in Afghanistan at all had it not been for the department’s knowledge that it had to produce quick results in Afghanistan based on a politically driven timeline.”

Furthermore, despite a major shortage of well-trained and experienced civil affairs personnel to evaluate DOD’s programs and ensure that they did not come with unexpected negative consequences for local political dynamics or economies, the U.S. military would continue to pour billions into the Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP), while untrained civil affairs, “personnel were not only ill-prepared to document and implement projects, they were also sometimes unprepared to properly conceptualize projects.” As one senior civil affairs officer told SIGAR, “when I would ask RC-E CERP managers to explain the impact of a specific project being considered, I was often told, ‘It might work,’ as its justification. None of them had development backgrounds; they were only concerned with preventing waste, fraud, and abuse at the most simple level.” 

A notional CERP “Theory of Change” from DOD, both too detailed and too unspecific to be of real use/Source: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1500/RR1508/RAND_RR1508.pdf#page=34

Because of USAID’s inability to push back against a military that outnumbered it thirty-to-one in the Provincial Reconstruction Teams and which was, “almost entirely reliant on the military for logistical support,” the result was that “all types of stabilization programming were often implemented during all stages of clear-hold-build,” and that, “this occurred even when USAID knew the sequencing was inappropriate and [that its] programs would be ineffective.” 

However, even though Defense Department decision makers were often given the lead in deciding where to operate and what projects to fund, USAID is, itself, far from blameless, especially as their Kabul-based decision makers seemed to ignore or not fully take into account the feedback from its own civilian experts operating in the field. For example, a 2015 Center for American Progress report noted that, “perhaps more concerning, U.S. civilians indicate that they had relatively little ability to influence U.S. policy on civilian issues,” and that, “for many civilian representatives, reporting was a source of significant frustration because they believed that they shared significant local knowledge that was never integrated into policy decisions,” back in Kabul. 

Moreover until the post-surge period, “USAID Contracting Officer’s Representatives (COR), the officials responsible for providing direction and oversight to implementing partners, as well as other officials with authority to approve expenditures, were often based in Kabul, which meant every spending decision had to go through the capital,” limiting the ability of those who knew the needs of locals best to decide where development funding would actually go. The ultimate result was that, “at one point, USAID’s Director of the Office of Acquisition and Assistance determined that, in order to meet the U.S. government’s average ratio of dollars to contracting officers, USAID would have to send nearly its entire overseas workforce to work only in Afghanistan.” 

Correspondingly, “because civilian PRT officials who mentored provincial government officials were outranked and often overruled by their bosses at the regional level who deferred to military priorities, this organizational structure and the relationships that drove it undermined civilian considerations,” and placed decision making almost solely in the hands of a U.S. military that lacked the experienced and trained civil affairs officers needed to conduct the stabilization mission in a fiscally responsible and developmentally sound manner. 

USAID IN AFGHANISTAN: TOTAL EXPENDITURES VS. STABILIZATION EXPENDITURES, 2002–2017 ($ MILLIONS)/Source: https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/lessonslearned/SIGAR-18-48-LL.pdf#page=72

As a consequence of these failures, “from 2009 through 2014, USAID stabilization programming resources increased nearly 800 percent compared to the six years prior to 2009,” as pressure to show progress during the brief surge period saw the rate of expenditure or “burn rate” of funding become the primary metric through which to view progress. This myopic and reductive focus on using dollars spent as proxy for progress not only impaired any coherent effort towards building villages and districts that had a greater affinity for the Kabul-based government, but it changed the governing culture in much of the country as cash grew to become the primary method for influencing local officials. One senior USAID official even remarked to SIGAR in 2016 that, “we had no legitimacy if we weren’t flooding the area with cash. How can you get the attention of a district governor in Arghandab if you’re not spending money like everyone else is? Why would he care about a $5,000 training or shura process when he’s trying to negotiate a huge infrastructure project or cash-for-work for hundreds of his people?” 

This rapid increase in the provision of international funding sources not only failed to produce a concomitant increase in Afghans’ affinity for the GIRoA, but it also distorted local economies as coalition forces’ funds, “created ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ [and] fundamentally reworked the power structures and political economy of many parts of the country,” as, “the elite capture of relationships with, and aid and contracts from, the coalition created new grievances and exacerbated old ones as some tribes and other groups benefited from the war, while others were alienated and driven toward the insurgency,” and, “coalition officials often became kingmakers,” despite their personnel often lacking in-depth and on-the-ground knowledge of the people they were actually handing power to. 

All of these issues were exacerbated by the November 2010 Lisbon Summit Declaration which affirmed the coalition’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2014. This period saw a shift in U.S. strategy away from focusing on district-level assistance towards focusing on Kabul’s governance capabilities, as, “it had become clear that district capacity was not sustainable, particularly because even provincial governments did not have the capacity or authority to properly plan or manage budgets, and the drawdown created an opportune moment to rescope stabilization.” As SIGAR reports, “at the same time, USAID recognized that the work stabilization had intended to accomplish had only just begun.” However, despite this acknowledgement, “USAID informed the mission in October 2010 that the budget for many portfolios, including stabilization, would soon be slashed by at least 65 percent,” as, “USAID’s stabilization budget in Afghanistan was reduced from $720 million to $256 million, a cut totaling nearly as much as the entire FY 2010 Stab-U budget of $490 million.” 

In essence, even while the Lisbon Summit Declaration stated that the, “transition will be conditions-based, not calendar-driven,” and President Obama declared in June of 2011 that the U.S. was, “starting this drawdown from a position of strength,” it is hard not to argue that the United States, despite lacking any tangible metric that would demonstrate how it was making progress in Afghanistan—from the number of troops trained to levels of violence, or even territory controlled—simply declared victory and began to slowly disengage from the country.

More maddeningly, the U.S. could not even properly commit to throwing in the towel, as despite announcing its intention to walk away from the country and beginning to reduce the funding spent on stabilization and shoring up the GIRoA, the U.S. still attempted to continue its efforts in some ways in the hopes of handing to Kabul key terrain districts that were both more secure and more Afghan-led. Moreover, during this period, “different programs within USAID used different theories of change, terminologies, and approaches, just as they had during the surge,” with the result, according to one senior stabilization contractor that, “we couldn’t agree on a definition of stabilization,” impeding any coherent effort to bring Afghan officials into the stabilization process. 

Nowhere were these stark challenges more evident than in regards to one of DOD’s major stabilization programs: the Commander’s Emergency Response Program. By 2009, a funding mechanism initially designed to enable U.S. commanders in Iraq to respond to urgent humanitarian relief and reconstruction requirements within their area of operations had seen its budget swell from just $40 million in 2004 to over $550 million. Moreover, the program—which morphed from a method of providing emergency humanitarian assistance into an avenue to support the legitimacy of the Kabul-based government—saw military commanders view the funds primarily as a way to demonstrate to recently cleared areas the benefits that they would see following a return of the central government. As a result, “the military came to regard the spending of money itself as a ‘weapon system’,” with the hope that, “the Taliban would not be welcome to return to these targeted communities, and the government would come to be seen as legitimate and capable enough to sustain the infrastructure and services seeded by CERP.” 

However, SIGAR’s analysis of CERP’s implementation, “suggests [that] senior policymakers devoted money to a program with no overarching strategy, and without effective systems for collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data,” with the result, “a program that spent $2.3 billion in a profoundly underdeveloped economy with unknown effects.” Specifically, Sopko’s report points to a U.S. Forces – Afghanistan publication, “Money As a Weapon System – Afghanistan” (MAAWS-A) which, while directing commanders to develop real metrics to measure project success, “the relevant section in the update did not actually provide guidance as to how to measure a project’s impact after implementation, but instead listed required considerations to justify initiating a project.” An even more troubling aspect of the MAAWS-A publication is the fact that while the document spends almost the entirety of its 250+ pages discussing the chain of signatures required for project authorization, the dollar thresholds for project approval, and detailed instructions on how to break out projects down to the budgets for individual nails and screws, it contains little guidance for unit commanders on what types of projects they should be initiating, with required sections on project impact relegated to almost an afterthought. Even when impact is assessed as part of the program, the MAAWS-A guidelines viewed project impact more in terms of how the instantiation of projects would affect unit commanders’ mission objectives and not the overall effort to stand up and support local governance structures.

An example of how DOD’s level of detail required for stabilization projects had more to do with costs than impacts./Source: https://www.jagcnet.army.mil/Sites%5C%5Ccontractandfiscallaw.nsf/0/9A566BF0D10C631B85257B0100650290/$File/MAAWS-A%20-%20Feb%2012.pdf#page=120

As a former senior USFOR-A official in charge of CERP implementation commented to SIGAR in July of 2016, “there was no formal way of reporting CERP impact. When you request a project, you include the expected impact you think the project will have, but if we built a school, we never went back to do a nose count of the students at the school.” Even if they had conducted that most basic level of post-project evaluation, “while CERP built schools to educate children, the end goal was winning hearts and minds; therefore, counting the number of students in school could not measure the effectiveness of CERP.” However, the personnel that attempted to develop these metrics struggled to truly and accurately measure project impact, with the ultimate result that they chose instead to focus on easier to measure metrics such as effort to prevent simple fraud or waste. One stabilization operations planner in the Eastern Regional Command even told SIGAR that:

 “I wanted to develop metrics for measuring impact for each project, but it was so hard to know what was causing security in any particular area to improve or worsen, and we could only get about 10 percent of the data we wanted to evaluate anything. So, we decided it was too hard to focus on impact at the project level. The only metrics we ever developed were anchored in financial management: making sure people got paid and making sure things were built.”

So, while many of these CERP projects were under $5,000 in total cost—which limited the chances that they were part of a larger waste of taxpayer funds—there was seemingly never a thought given to how each project would fit into an overarching effort to eliminate instability and empower local governance institutions while simultaneously buttressing the GIRoA, which should have been the ultimate aim of every single stabilization project that was initiated. As the SIGAR report continues, “USFOR-A’s struggle to create measures of effectiveness and implementers’ lack of time to develop (much less implement) them meant that, in practice, tracking and reporting on effectiveness was often not a requirement.” 

Afghanistan CERP Disbursements From FY 2004-FY 2017 ($ Millions)/Source: https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/lessonslearned/SIGAR-18-48-LL.pdf#page=111

As Rebecca Jensen writes in a 2019 piece for Marine Corps University, “in the case of CERP, the military lacked the training, incentives, support, or expertise to use money as an effective weapon,” as too often, money spent was seen as the only real metric of success. As a result, the SIGAR report notes, “even in government-controlled areas, more than a million dollars in CERP spending was estimated to be required for every attack prevented,” which should never be the main metric that commanders should be aspiring to with their stabilization programming. 

CERP disbursements and U.S. troop levels during the Afghan surge, by quarter/Source: https://www.usmcu.edu/Portals/218/MCUJ_10_1_%28Mis%29use%20of%20Weapon_CERP%20in%20the%20Afghan%20Surge_Rebecca%20Jensen.pdf#page=20

All of these issues ultimately stemmed from the fundamental failure of decision makers at the very top of the Executive Branch as well as DOD, USAID, and State to formulate a comprehensive vision for how exactly to encourage better subnational governance in the villages and districts and how to help them begin to trust and work with the central government in Kabul. Lacking that vision, CERP projects were initiated haphazardly and without any real vision for how those projects would help realize U.S. stabilization goals in their areas of operation, as the CERP’s, “keys to project selection” were simply that projects were able to be executed quickly, employed local Afghans, were highly visible, and that they, “benefitted” the local population in some nebulous and undefined manner. 

The Defense Department’s Village Stability Operations similarly demonstrated both a troubling lack of foresight into how to achieve a less unstable Afghanistan as well as a continued interest in taking short-cuts to try to speed along the transition. For example, as part of General McChrystal’s counterinsurgency strategy, USAID’s Afghanistan Social Outreach Program’s district councils were tasked with endorsing the creation of Afghan Local Police Units, and the success of these militia-type units in the early years of the program led top military officials to see them as a way to quickly fill the void left by departing international forces, resulting in a rapid expansion of the program once the Obama administration’s withdrawal timeline was announced. 

However, in conducting such a quick expansion of the ALP, vetting requirements for potential members, which were initially conceived as stringent in practice, were quickly abandoned in a pell mell attempt to quickly grow the program. Moreover, existing militias were incorporated into ALP units or converted wholesale into police units as concerns about suppressing the insurgency took precedence over concerns about the rule of law.  As a result, Kate Clark, Erica Gaston, Fazal Muzhary, and Borhan Osman wrote in a 2020 report for the Global Public Policy Institute, “rather than being given a choice of who would serve in the ALP, elders described being forced to rubber-stamp or ratify force selection made by SOF or local commanders, and in many cases they were not consulted at all.” Moreover, as SIGAR notes, “in Baghlan and Kunduz, for example, local Tajik and Uzbek power brokers reportedly hijacked the ALP selection process by marginalizing local elders—who should have been tasked with recruiting and vetting ALP—and selecting their own recruits.” Moreover, as Clark et. al. write, in Takhar province, “ALP units appear to be entirely corrupted and, in the words of one senior MoI official, ‘warlord-infiltrated.’” 

Once again, in a quest for a panacea, decision makers attempted to adopt a strategy largely  ill-suited to much of the country, especially as, “the number of places in Afghanistan where a local force might work is limited,” due to the fact that, “continual cycles of conflict and mobilization over the last few decades have contributed to a greater prevalence of the sort of community divisions, erosion of community-protective structures, and predatory warlords, commanders, and factional networks that spoil local defense models.” In essence, despite these ALP units being particularly ill-suited for deployment in the country’s many multi-ethnic areas, areas with local strongmen or pre-existing militias, or areas with abundant natural or illicit resources, decisions made by DOD to continue with the transition to ALP units still resulted in the rapid expansion of a police force that would too often prey on its fellow citizens. As a result, a 2017 study from the Afghanistan Analysts Network argued, only one third of ALP units were effective, another one third were actually counter-productive, and the remainder were somewhere in between. 

The rapid expansion of the ALP ultimately contradicted the underlying logic of the VSO program, which aimed to cultivate small anti-Taliban militias at the village level and to connect villages more concretely with the Kabul government. As the SIGAR report continues, “not only were governance and development de-emphasized as ALP grew, even the idea of representative governance within the ALP itself became secondary,” as, “the rapid development of the ALP meant some ALP were not indigenous to the village or village cluster they were assigned to protect, undermining a fundamental premise of the program.” As one military official damningly noted to SIGAR in a way that may have sadly summed up the entire DOD stabilization enterprise in Afghanistan, “both at the strategic and operational level, doing VSO/ALP right took a backseat to doing it fast.”

Geographic Trends in ALP Performance demonstrate how little positive impact ALP units had on areas in which they operated/Source: https://www.gppi.net/media/GPPi_AAN_2020_Ghosts-of-the-Past-Afghanistan.pdf#page=45

Assessment Failures

Not only were many of the stabilization programs instituted by the U.S. and coalition forces unfruitful, but many of these programs were actually counterproductive, introducing more sources of instability into an area instead of reducing them outright. However, these poorly implemented programs often emerged out of a more general inability on the behalf of USAID and DOD implementers to properly measure the impact of already instituted initiatives, with the focus of program evaluators too often on easy-to-measure concepts like access to jobs or increased agricultural production levels. As SIGAR notes, “USAID and DOD stabilization efforts in Afghanistan were marked by poor situational awareness, a lack of reliable data, a mismatch between short project timelines and highly ambitious long-term goals, and frequent shifts in priorities.” 

Moreover, even simple output measurements and GPS data on project locations—which ended up often being the only methods of evaluation even available for some projects—were often not well tracked or vetted, leading to inaccuracy and even incidences of fraud. Moreover, as SIGAR’s report remarks, “USAID’s data quality—particularly that collected in its central Afghan Info database—was so poor that it significantly hindered M&E efforts, both by implementing partners hired by USAID to conduct M&E and by external researchers.” Moreover, what information that was recorded, such as the ISAF-cataloged “significant activities” (SIGACT) database, only collected data on violence in areas where the coalition had the forces to collect and verify such incidents in the first place. Moreover the database primarily measured attacks on coalition and Afghan forces and not the civilian populace that they were there to protect. As a result, while such data might have been useful in telling decision makers how secure a given area was for military units assigned there, it did little to record the actual situation on the ground for the civilians that those forces were there to protect in the first place, providing little clarity for stabilization programmers to base their decisions on where to target their activities.

The few clear sources of information that were cataloged ultimately demonstrated that while stabilization efforts were more effective in areas where the GIRoA had a degree of control, in districts where the Taliban had control, stabilization efforts were ultimately destabilizing; a troublesome fact given the coalition’s primary focus on working in the most insecure districts. What’s more, the Measuring Impact of Stabilization Initiatives (MISTI) program found that USAID’s three to five-year planning horizon made it difficult to incorporate lessons learned into its programs that took years to design and formulate and that, as a result, “even when best practices and lessons were identified, they were rarely implemented.” 

Furthermore, the slow process of standing up new stabilization programming resulted in projects that focused mainly on the construction of simple infrastructure, which, “prevented most stabilization programs from addressing sources of instability stemming from higher-level political dynamics.” The result of USAID’s inability to rapidly incorporate new lessons learned from projects and its generally risk-averse nature was a situation where implementers lacked the flexibility to take risks with their activities, with programming that merely nibbled around the edges of village or district problems rather than directly addressing underlying sources of instability at the district or village level.

Ultimately, however, the entire stabilization process was hindered by the short surge and withdrawal timelines, which hindered iterative design and implementation of programming. Moreover, the military’s focus on first securing and attempting to stabilize the most insecure, Taliban-held areas of the country and then working backwards towards the more secure areas meant that, “few Afghan communities stabilized enough to demonstrate if these temporary gains could be leveraged into the next phase of long-term development.” 

More troubling—as the primary measurement framework for U.S. and coalition projects was often on funding “burn rates” or quantifiable outputs produced—is the fact that research has shown that such data is not correlated with project impact and that the focus should have instead been on projects that attempted to achieve greater levels of community engagement and participation. 

Structural Failures in Stabilization

Ultimately, these failed attempts to stabilize the country and engender a greater affinity between the population and the GIRoA were largely the result of failing to surge in stabilization personnel during the brief window following the Taliban’s initial defeat, when the coalition had a large enough ratio of troops to insurgents to really tackle the country’s various sources of instability. Subsequent short-termism from the Obama administration not only hindered long-term planning processes but resulted in the military being placed in charge of what was fundamentally a political and development process. From the very start of the Riedel review, the Obama administration moved the stabilization process from being one that would end when certain targets were met to a process where the transition to Afghan control would be completed no matter what conditions on the ground ultimately were. These constrained timelines forced State and USAID to hire under qualified civilians to rapidly staff key positions in Provincial Reconstruction and District Stability Teams as well as to take shortcuts with regard to the qualifications of Afghan civil servants working in the most dangerous parts of the country. The Obama administration’s surge and withdrawal timelines also meant that the holding and building parts of the clear-hold-build process were expected to be completed in months instead of the years that it quickly became clear the strategy would require

In sum, not only did decision makers often lack a unified theory of change for providing better village- and district-level governance that would positively link together Afghanistan’s municipalities with the capital, but even if they had a better plan, the short timelines provided by the executive branch meant that such a theory of change would likely have been meaningless as the years or decades needed to achieve it would have required more political capital than those in Washington were willing to commit to the undertaking. As a result, Afghanistan saw the proliferation of programs such as cash-for-work schemes that, while they may have in some limited cases temporarily taken the guns out of the hands of potential insurgents, ultimately failed to live up to Afghans’ expectations and which were unable to reduce levels of violence or support for political violence. 

Building a Better Stabilization Process: A Lesson from the British Empire and the U.S. Civilian Response Corps

Many, if not all, of the problems confronting stabilization and state-building efforts in Afghanistan stemmed from an inherent unwillingness to understand the situation on the ground at the district and village levels, especially as much of the programming was formulated in Kabul or foreign capitals rather than at the local level. Ultimately, there was not enough on the ground expertise to even attempt to make progress on the short timelines provided by the Obama administration. 

As the SIGAR report points out, “short-term, high-pressure tours…actively disincentivized personnel to learn and change so that they could adjust programming to more adequately tackle the complex context and long-term problems they were faced with,” especially as, “there was an overwhelming consensus among civilian personnel that [their] one-year tours were insufficient.” Moreover, “in areas flooded with programming, it often took months for new personnel to understand all of the activity in their area of operations.” Further troubling was the fact that, “the manner in which the bureaucracy was focused in and on matters in Kabul [was] demonstrated by the fact that civilians in Kabul significantly outnumbered those in the field,” illustrating the fact that, as structured, U.S. effort would never be able to really understand what was going on at the district and village levels. 

As the SIGAR report notes in its recommendations for the future, “recruiting, training, and deploying the required civilian personnel for large-scale stabilization missions is difficult, particularly with short time-horizons. Most contingencies will need to ramp up quickly with experienced civilian personnel who can build coalitions and understand diverse communities.” Therefore, what the U.S. and coalition needed in Afghanistan, is something akin to the British “district officer” from that country’s colonial period: a local plenipotentiary agent empowered to negotiate with local leaders in the country and oversee all political and legal affairs in an area of approximately 50,000 inhabitants. 

As Roger B. Myerson’s Stabilization Lessons argues, for decades the British Empire employed individuals, who, with their extensive knowledge of the local political situation and key players in the colonial territories, enabled London to build and maintain stable and effective political arrangements with roots in local political dynamics. While those colonial-era efforts were often used to further Britain’s extractive and exploitative colonial regimes, the idea of retaining an extensive cadre of knowledgeable experts who are adept at understanding and building effective sub-national governance structures could pay dividends if applied to future post-conflict state-building environments in previously destabilized countries.

During the British colonial era, as Myerson explains, its district officers would oversee the legal and political affairs in an area that was small enough that the officer could visit most of the territory during a few months touring on foot patrols. The officer was usually sent to a colony after some period of training that covered accounting, criminal and Islamic law, sanitation and hygiene, surveying, language skills, and ethnology, with the individual in question serving an apprenticeship period as an assistant to a serving district officer as they learned the ropes of the job. District officers were supervised by a provincial commissioner who was responsible for three districts, and who were themselves overseen by a colonial governor in the capital. That governor was also supported by district officers who rotated out of their districts and into the capital for assignment every few years. The result of all of this was an experienced team of individuals with a tremendous amount of knowledge regarding local power dynamics and who were responsible for formulating and instituting British policy towards the colony. 

In Afghanistan, however, the United States lacked anything approaching this level of local expertise. As SIGAR’s more wide-ranging lessons-learned report from August 2021 argued, one of the key reasons for U.S. failure in Afghanistan was that, “the U.S. government did not understand the Afghan context and therefore failed to tailor its efforts accordingly.” As a result of this failure to understand the local context, “U.S. officials often empowered powerbrokers who preyed on the population or diverted assistance away from its intended recipients to enrich and empower themselves and their allies. Lack of knowledge at the local level meant projects intended to mitigate conflict often exacerbated it, and even inadvertently funded insurgents.” 

This lack of on-the-ground expertise was compounded by the Bush administration’s decision to prioritize tending to the deteriorating situation in Iraq starting in 2003, allowing the Taliban time to regroup and rearm, especially as U.S. troops were largely expected to depart the country as early as 2004. Moreover, what reconstruction projects were initiated tended to, “[prioritize] tangible projects on which money could be spent and success claimed more quickly, over less tangible types of programming with the potential to be more enduring, such as capacity building.” 

Ultimately, by not having a team of experienced Afghanistan and/or stabilization experts ready to flow into the country immediately on the heels of the 2001 invasion, the Bush administration was fatally impaired in both its ability to understand the potential for the Taliban to regroup as well as the possible impact on corruption that the massive influx of U.S. reconstruction funds would have on the country’s developing power structures. Moreover, as a 2017 RAND report looking at stabilization initiatives in Afghanistan learned, the key factors that enabled successful stabilization projects were, “host-nation coordination and commitment, limiting the extent of corrosive corruption, ensuring baseline levels of security to facilitate basic implementation and oversight, and ensuring appropriate staffing, both in terms of skills and in terms of longevity of deployment.” In essence, without experienced experts on the ground, the U.S. was blind to its own programs’ effectiveness; useful programs that could have provided dividends were never started; and corruption proliferated as, “more money went to communities whose local political dynamics were poorly understood, which often exacerbated conflicts, enabled corruption, and bolstered support for insurgents.”

A Reconstituted Civilian Response Corps

While Myerson’s district officers obviously are not a one-to-one analog for what would have been needed in Afghanistan—as it is difficult, as a primarily non-colonial nation, for the U.S. to have a wealth of expert individuals on the ground in every fragile country that might require stabilization efforts in the future—his analysis does at least provide some intellectual scaffolding to support the reformation of the now-defunct Civilian Response Corps at the State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations. 

Established as part of the 2009 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the Civilian Response Corps (CRC) was set up as, “a group of civilian federal employees and…volunteers from the private sector and state and local governments…trained and equipped to deploy rapidly to countries in crisis or emerging from conflict, in order to provide reconstruction and stabilization assistance.” A partnership of eight U.S. departments and agencies including USAID, as well as the Departments of State, Justice, Homeland Security, Treasury, Agriculture, Commerce, and Health and Human Services, the program was comprised of an active component of of federal employees who worked full time to support reconstruction and stabilization activities, preparing to deploy in as few as two days to a crisis location at short-notice for periods of up to six months. 

The Civilian Response Corps also employed a standby component of existing U.S. government employees occupying full-time government jobs who were available for training and deployments of up to six months on a 30-45 day notice. Finally, the CRC had a reserve component of at least 2,000 volunteers from the private sector as well as state and local governments who were ready to provide management capacity to the embassy and technical assistance to the host-nation government once deployed. In standing up this capability, the Obama administration submitted a FY 2010 request totalling $323,272,000 for its whole-of-government Civilian Stabilization Initiative, including the Civilian Response Corps, or less than 1% of what the administration requested in its total FY 2010 request for Afghanistan military operations for just that year alone. 

However, as the SIGAR stabilization report points out, the Corps quickly ran into difficulties, because, “there was no appetite in Congress to fund the civilian reserve component, as it would require the same kind of legislative framework as the reserve component of the armed forces to ensure jobs would be available when personnel returned from active duty.” Moreover, the Corps’ reserve component ran into another set of challenges in that, “the standby component assumed that the government has the slack to give for the effort, but where there is slack to give, those are often not the people with the skills you need. Those people are already doing other important work…So we only managed to get a handful of State employees out of their day jobs as part of the standby.” 

Even the CRC’s active component faced challenges, as all eight agencies involved, “had their own ideas about what types of personnel should be in their respective active pools, often based on how they could use them when not deployed, rather than their suitability for [stability and reconstruction] missions.” The result of which was that, “out of 250 personnel in the active component, only 36 were allotted to [State’s Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization – S/CRS], whose active pool was best suited to the lion’s share of civilian stabilization work in Afghanistan, primarily on PRTs and DSTs.” Ultimately, SIGAR notes, “the endeavor became difficult to justify with so few active component members being used,” and, “after S/CRS became the Bureau for Conflict and Stabilization Operations in 2011, it defunded the active component and adopted a bullpen model instead, where dozens of international affairs and development professionals would be available on call, but not paid unless deployed, and not necessarily willing to deploy if asked.” 

In essence, despite fielding a military expedition of approximately 100,000 troops at the time, Congress could not find the funding for more than 0.25% of accompanying stabilization and reconstruction experts whose work would ensure that the underlying conditions necessitating the original U.S. intervention never re-emerged. Ultimately, it turned out that the U.S. once again tried to skimp on civilian programming while not hesitating to shower billions on the military. However, in doing so in Afghanistan, Congress effectively undercut the U.S.’ entire military effort there, as a lavishly-funded military cleared insurgents only to have the necessary civilian experts fail to follow in their wake. As SIGAR notes, “in contrast to DOD, the two agencies that provided the majority of personnel for the civilian surge, State and USAID, did not have built-in staff redundancy to enable rapid mobilization to the field,” and, as a result, one USAID official told SIGAR, “at the height of the civilian surge, our existing numbers were so limited we were forced to bring on roughly 250–350 people per year to do the work of USAID across Afghanistan, many with little to no practical USAID experience.” 

With a warfighting effort alone that cost the U.S. taxpayer an average of over $41 billion per year over twenty years and that saw over 2,324 U.S. troops killed, the United States Congress could seemingly not be bothered to fund a program that would bring in the experts who would have made those sacrifices have a more enduring purpose. As a result, the U.S. military was too often left to stumble about in the dark as it searched for answers as to how to increase Kabul’s reach. If instead, the United States had ready an expert and capable team of civilian personnel prepared to institute stabilization programming in post-conflict environments prior to 2001, it may have saved tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars over the long-term, as those teams may have been able to help reform legitimate local governance authorities, establish civil security, provide access to dispute resolution, and serve as a bridge connecting  the fledgling national governance structures in Kabul to strategically located districts and villages in the critical early period following the initial defeat of the Taliban in late 2001 and early 2002. 

While individuals in such a reconstituted Civilian Response Corps would likely never have the same level of local knowledge as British district officers who were assigned to live in the colonies they would be administering, the Corps could still provide the next best thing: access to U.S.-based experts on the political economy and power structures of the country that they are attempting to stabilize who are quickly ready to deploy to their country of interest within days of a contingency operation. 

For just a fraction of the price of what two decades of military operations cost in Afghanistan, a Civilian Response Corps that went beyond the limited, and ultimately never fulfilled, promise of its earlier iteration would have at minimum—but preferably more than—500 State department employees ready to deploy to lead reconstruction and stabilization efforts during a future contingency. These individuals would need to have expertise in prior stabilization efforts as well as deep understanding of how to operate in conflict-affected environments. Ideally, this active component would be augmented by at minimum another 2,500 standby members spread across the other eight departments and agencies with the ability to deploy within 30 days notice to support U.S. stabilization efforts abroad. Finally, the active and standby components could be augmented by an at least 5,000-member reserve corps of individuals working in the private sector as well as state and local governments who would be available to temporarily leave their jobs to deploy for stabilization missions during a future contingency. 

As with the original Civilian Response Corps, those reservist positions should be established with the idea that their positions would be protected in the same way the jobs of the 190,000 U.S. Army reservists are protected today in the event of their call-up to active duty. The idea that Congress is unwilling to carve out just another 2.5% worth of protected positions for the civilian experts whose stabilization activities are aimed at reducing the local sources of instability and grievances that the Taliban used to make the areas dangerous in the first place is boggling to contemplate. 

Spending close to a trillion dollars on clearing out the Taliban in Afghanistan but being ultimately unwilling to spend a few hundred million on the experts that would help build effective local and national government with enough civilian buy-in that it was capable to stand up to the Taliban is like buying a $3,000 personal computer but not paying for a monitor to actually make us of it and demonstrates how the United States’ legislative branch was similarly afflicted by an overall inability to contemplate a holistic vision for a safe and prosperous post-coalition Afghanistan.

While a reconstituted Civilian Response Corps in State’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations would likely not be a panacea for all the problems facing U.S. efforts in Afghanistan—as events may still have played out in a way that resulted in a U.S. defeat or withdrawal—by not having civilian stabilization experts in place before the war commenced, and then by not even properly financing the Corps during its initial years, the U.S. likely doomed itself to failure in Afghanistan. This was especially true as the military unsurprisingly proved itself unable to properly navigate the complex socio-political dynamics of Afghan life outside of the relative safety of Kabul the U.S. armed forces lacked the qualified civil affairs personnel to properly liaise between the military and Afghan civilian actors on the ground. When coupled with the Obama administration’s disastrous decision to only briefly surge U.S. troop levels before rapidly withdrawing forces from the country, the dearth of civilian experts on the ground in the villages and districts of Afghanistan ultimately hamstrung efforts to both implement and evaluate U.S. stabilization and reconstruction programming. 

Final Thoughts

A reconstituted Civilian Reserve Corps should attempt to go beyond SIGAR’s recommendation of 300-500 State and USAID employees with skill sets including contract and program management as well as political engagement. However, as a 2008 Rand Corporation report on Stabilization and Reconstruction Staffing noted that, “the paradox of using federal civilians in reconstruction and stabilization efforts is that, generally, federal civilians move out of, rather than into, areas of political instability,” it means that with the way these units are stood up, one of the toughest tasks facing U.S. departments and agencies will face is in recruiting employees and other individuals interested in and available for assignment in dangerous localities such as Afghanistan.

What’s more, in reconstituting a Civilian Response Corps for future contingencies like the one in Afghanistan, State and USAID decision makers would need to address the fact that even if they had been properly staffed and funded—which is extremely difficult given the hiring and budgeting authorities the prior incarnation of the CRC were provided with—prior efforts aimed at building the capacity of district and provincial councils as well as attempting to connect those councils to the Kabul government were frequently stymied by the fact that there was no overarching consensus as to how these councils and shuras should function in relation to line ministries in Kabul. 

Over the last twenty years, lacking a coherent intellectual framework for how village- and district-based governments were to actually cooperate and collaborate with Kabul, as well as a robust understanding of local political and socio-economic dynamics, what efforts were initiated were ultimately unsuccessful as, “programs repeatedly fell back on a familiar collection of ‘theories of change’ that did not comport with conditions on the ground.” Therefore, even if Congress is willing to put at State and USAID’s disposal of the funding required to stand up—and potentially backfill their jobs during a contingency—the 500 active duty members of a reconstituted Civilian Response Corps, decision makers there would still need to address the fact that previous stabilization efforts were often ad hoc and haphazard, with no actionable theory of change that all implementers were working towards. Without a high-level understanding of what the exact relationship will be—including budgetary oversight, policy development and implementation—between subnational governance units and Kabul—as well as how to institute and sustain those relationships—stabilization efforts were doomed to be little more than temporary cash handouts. 

However, it must be made clear that without the buy-in from national government officials, such as the Ghani government in Afghanistan, none of these efforts will be likely to pay dividends, as stabilization efforts need to commence both from the bottom-up and the top-down in order for state-building programming to be have both local buy-in as well as a formal legal mandate from national policymakers. Moreover, these efforts have to be conducted with a clear understanding that COIN’s “ink spots” need to radiate out from existing pockets of security and stability rather than first targeting the most dangerous areas of the country for pacification and beginning stabilization efforts there. 

Hiring these experts and putting aside money in the State and USAID budgets each year to defray the cost of hiring temporary replacements for employees deployed to future contingencies will likely be expensive, costing the U.S. taxpayer tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Moreover, as these individuals would need to be hired and trained well before a contingency begins to emerge, the drag on both State and USAID’s budgets would be ongoing, and most years the capability would—hopefully—go completely unused if the U.S. was not conducting stabilization efforts in any conflict zones around the world. What’s more, carving out thousands of protected jobs for the standby and reserve components of a reconstituted Civilian Response Corps across government and the private sector would undoubtedly ruffle feathers both in the bureaucracy and the commercial class as administrators and captains of industry cried government inefficiency and waste. Moreover, recent statements such as those from Representative Ken Calvert, Chairman of the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee demonstrate that Congressional leaders still prioritize nebulous conceptions about “warfighting capability” to the detriment of the expert civilian staff whose work the warfighter is often there to enable.

Much like the U.S. Army Reserve or even a town’s municipal volunteer fire department, some of the most critical capabilities that government decision makers possess can often look as if they are budgetary black holes. In essence, to paraphrase the 2014 conclusions of the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Reserve Forces Policy Board, “the Nation must maintain a [Civilian] Reserve Component that is accessible, available, and flexible to provide operational [personnel], when needed, to satisfy the full range of potential missions called for by our civilian…leadership.” For a mere fraction of the 9% of the DOD budget that the National Guard and Reserves account for, a Civilian Response Corps at the State Department would accomplish a similar goal to the armed forces reserves and ensure that the U.S. is able to complete its stabilization missions when it does deploy troops to unstable countries during future contingencies. 

Twenty years of war in Afghanistan has unfortunately netted the United States little in terms of actual security dividends as the country is likely once again a government-enabled sanctuary for terrorist groups that could pose a threat to the security of the United States. By not having the requisite experts ready to deploy to Afghanistan in the early days following the 2001 invasion, the U.S. lost its one major window to improve governance as well as link local governance structures with the new government in Kabul. 

It is past time that U.S. decision makers absorb a lesson from both SIGAR and the pages of British history and begin to reconstitute a Civilian Response Corps of stabilization and reconstruction experts that have the knowledge and expertise to quickly arrive on scene during a future contingency and begin the delicate and difficult work of building government capacity and linking local stabilization efforts with service provision efforts at the line ministries in the capital. Without such a quickly deployable cadre of capable experts, the United States risks replicating the mistakes it made in Afghanistan, as it relied on inexperienced and untrained military commanders who—through little fault on their own parts—wasted hundreds of billions of dollars providing security to Afghan districts only for the follow-on stabilization programming fail to deliver the necessary improvements in subnational governance to make that security stick. It is a mistake that the United States can ill afford to repeat.

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Avoiding Stabilization Whac-A-Mole: Failures in Afghanistan and Lessons From the British Empire (Early Progress Sneak Peek)

February 10, 2023

(What follows is just a brief look at the piece I am working on for next week. Enjoy at your leisure or come back next week for the full piece.)

In August of 2021, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), John F. Sopko, and his team, released its most comprehensive analysis of lessons learned from twenty years of U.S. and international experience attempting to vanquish the Taliban and to reconstruct the country in such a way that a democratically elected government in Kabul could eventually take over. However, these efforts were ultimately unsuccessful, as Kabul fell to the Taliban the very same month that the SIGAR report was issued. 

While there were numerous mistakes and missteps that led to the ignominious U.S. withdrawal from the country, ultimately the United States’ failure to stabilize the country after its 2001 invasion was the result of a failure to properly prepare for what such a stabilization process would take to complete as well as a lack of understanding regarding the length of time the process would take to accomplish. Moreover, as former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley told SIGAR, “We just don’t have a post-conflict stabilization model that works. Every time we have one of these things, it is a pick-up game. I don’t have confidence that if we did it again, we would do it any better.” 

USAID Humanitarian Assistance in Afghanistan/Source: https://it.usembassy.gov/united-states-announces-additional-humanitarian-assistance-for-the-people-of-afghanistan/
USAID Humanitarian Assistance in Afghanistan/Source: https://it.usembassy.gov/united-states-announces-additional-humanitarian-assistance-for-the-people-of-afghanistan/

In light of these past failures, Roger B. Myerson’s fascinating, “Stabilization Lessons from the British Empire,” for the Texas National Security Review, offers some particularly interesting insights into both why American efforts towards stabilization in Afghanistan repeatedly failed as well as how the U.S. might better approach such a scenario in the future. In his piece, Myerson would seem to agree with Hadley that, “the frustrations and failures of costly state-building missions in recent years have created a widespread belief that nothing can be done to help states that fail.” However, for Myerson, there is a way out of this dilemma that can be achieved by looking at the historical example of the British Empire, where, “the primary lesson that can be drawn from the history of British colonial administration is that the management of a political stabilization mission should rely on a decentralized team of agents who can negotiate effectively with local leaders throughout the country,” with the British empire’s local plenipotentiary agents known as “district officers.” 

However, one merely has to examine another SIGAR report from 2018, “Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan,” to discover that, far from empowering knowledgeable experts on the district and below levels to accurately report on efforts towards stabilization at the village-level, a lack of coherent overall strategy for stabilization, there was no single point of contact at the village or district level to assess and evaluate those efforts that were implemented, resulting in a waste of taxpayer money and a failure to stabilize the country that led to the Taliban taking control once again. 

Therefore, it is best to examine some of the failures to achieve stabilization in Afghanistan in light of how a district officer-type figure might have prevented these problems from emerging in the first place. As the 2018 SIGAR report notes, “properly defining stabilization is particularly difficult because it is often used by policymakers in cables, strategic documents, and speeches as a vague euphemism to mean ‘fixing’ a country or area mired in conflict.” However, “on the ground in Afghanistan…stabilization refers to a specific process designed to keep insurgents out of an area after they have been initially expelled by security forces,” with most, “stabilization projects…intended to be a temporary stopgap measure to solidify the military’s gains in territorial control through improvements in local governance, better position the Afghan government to assume control and build upon the initial gains, and create the necessary conditions to allow for a coalition drawdown.” Different from the general goals of development, especially in Afghanistan, stabilization was designed to be a short-term focus on areas of insecurity that aimed to pave the way for the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) to establish its legitimacy in the eyes of a population that had often seen little actual formal governance for years. 

However, efforts towards stabilization ran into difficulties from the start, with Bush administration efforts to stabilize the Pashtun-dominated south and east prior to the start of the 2004 Afghan presidential election out of fear that continued attacks would undermine the legitimacy of the fledgling Kabul government. But it is here that the U.S.’ whac-a-mole-like efforts towards stabilization would first emerge as well as well as the short-termism exhibited by decision makers whose Quick Impact Projects (QIP) were intended to allow USAID officers located within Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT) to implement projects of less than $500,000 that aimed to ultimately build support for the Kabul government. According to Brigadier General Martin Schweitzer, who commanded U.S. forces in eastern Afghanistan during the 2005-2007 period, “what was lacking…was an interagency strategy that brought the military, USAID, State, and other civilian agencies together to plan and execute an integrated strategy,” with the result that there was never an overarching plan with specific targets for what a post-conflict Afghanistan would look like. As such, it was inherently difficult for any of the U.S.’ myriad stabilization efforts to actually achieve a real impact, as programs merely addressed symptoms of insecurity rather than providing the necessary scaffolding on which to build up community trust in the government. 

Afghan road construction contractors develop new sections of road in Speyra, Afghanistan, Nov. 1, 2009. International Security Assistance Force engineers from the provincial reconstruction team in Khost province provide guidance and check on the progress of the project. The $9-million, 25-km road is being built to connect the local populace to the district center. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Stephen J. Otero/Released)/Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Road_construction_in_Afghanistan.jpg
Afghan road construction contractors develop new sections of road in Speyra, Afghanistan, Nov. 1, 2009. International Security Assistance Force engineers from the provincial reconstruction team in Khost province provide guidance and check on the progress of the project. The $9-million, 25-km road is being built to connect the local populace to the district center. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Stephen J. Otero/Released)/Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Road_construction_in_Afghanistan.jpg

While the ultimate crux of the SIGAR Stabilization report is that many of the problems relating to the U.S.’ failure to stabilize many areas of the country—and, as a result, to demonstrate the value of the central government in Kabul—stem from the Obama administration’s fateful decision to follow a brief surge of troops with a rapid withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces, the report actually shows how these problems stem back to the very first days following the U.S. invasion back in 2001. Lacking a coherent, down-to-the-village plan for both what a post-insurgency Afghanistan would look like, the Bush administration’s decision to begin stabilization efforts through PRTs which, according to a 2005 report from the United States Institute of Peace’s (USIP) Robert M. Perito, lacked, “a central coordinating authority, a governing concept of PRT operations, and a strategic plan,” ultimately, “resulted in an ad hoc approach to Afghanistan’s needs for security and development,” that was indicative of how the U.S. approached the overall concept of stabilization. The result of which was a predictable failure to make the country secure or burnish the credibility or popularity of GIRoA. 

More than these ad hoc approaches, though, the timelines envisioned by U.S. decision makers dramatically underestimated the problem or demonstrated a troublesome lack of understanding of the true situation on the ground. This disconnect was illustrated by the statement of USAID Assistant Administrator for Asia and the Near East James Kunder in his remarks before the House Committee on International Relations’ Subcommittees on Middle East and Central Asia and Oversight & Investigations in March of 2006, said that, “there are three stages in the transition strategy for Afghanistan. The first stage was from 2002-2005, the current stage is focusing on stabilization and building systems,” and that, “USAID assumes that the final stage – the normal development process will start from 2008.” 

To begin, his statement that, “things have measurably improved” since the U.S. invasion began is highly misleading. As Seth G. Jones would later write in the pages of International Security, the fighting in Afghanistan, “which began in 2002, had developed into a full-blown insurgency by 2006,” as, “during this period, the number of insurgent-initiated attacks rose by 400 percent, and the number of deaths from these attacks by more than 800 percent,” with, “the increase in violence…particularly acute between 2005 and 2006, when the number of suicide attacks quintupled from 27 to 139; remotely detonated bombings more than doubled from 783 to 1,677; and armed attacks nearly tripled from 1,558 to 4,524.” Yet despite this increase in instability, a high-ranking USAID official was still telling Congress that normal development would be able to commence in Afghanistan within twenty-four months, a remarkably hopeful figure given the increasing levels of violence. 

While Washington did eventually recognize that more needed to be done on the ground, the Bush administration, “remained focused on Iraq, where security was unraveling quickly,” in the 2005-2007 period, leaving the, “decision about whether to pursue a ‘fully resourced’ counterinsurgency strategy,” to the incoming Obama administration. Unfortunately, the incoming president was, “overtly searching for a short-term exit strategy,” from Afghanistan during National Security Council discussions of the Pentagon’s proposed large troop surge, with the result that even in discussions about sending more troops to Afghanistan—in addition to the 21,000 the administration sent earlier in 2009—were always centered around how quickly they could be withdrawn. While the president likely correctly felt that, “an open-ended surge would divert critical resources away from mitigating the damage from the 2008 financial crisis,” it is hard to see how the short timeline provided would ever result in a stable Afghanistan. As a result, “the mission had all of the ambitions and expectations of a long-term counterinsurgency effort, but without the recommended, prolonged timeline.” Moreover, despite agreeing to the timeline, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Gen. David Petraeus, “also calculated the military could buy more time later if they made enough progress by the time the July 2011 deadline arrived,” despite President Obama calling Petraeus and others to an Oval Office meeting two days before his speech announcing the troop surge where he asked all of his chief advisors to agree to the 2011 drawdown timeline. 

The idea that top-ranking military figures would agree to a plan in a meeting but privately hope for a change of heart later on is tremendously disconcerting and demonstrates how many top-level decision makers could never really reconcile the president’s decision to conduct a rapid withdrawal, ultimately undermining every effort towards stabilization that followed. Ultimately, this failure to have a unifying conception of what stabilization policy should be—and the timeframe for it to be completed—led to a situation where policymakers were almost making it up as they went along. As the SIGAR report on stabilization notes, even as counterinsurgency (COIN) theory was evolving amongst top-level policy makers, “State and USAID had to operationalize this theory…and devise a framework for those civilian-led activities that supported COIN,” with the result that U.S. strategy, “soon moved away from focusing on districts seen as tipping points to those districts that had long since tipped towards the Taliban,” in key terrain districts (KTD) as part of what would become known as the clear-hold-build approach. 

In a shift from prior practice, where focus was mainly, “on areas that were contiguous to already stable regions, the priority was now often on ‘critical high-population areas’ that included ‘key infrastructure’ and were controlled or contested by insurgents.” It is here that U.S. stabilization strategy under Obama took what may be a second fateful turn, as a clear-hold-build approach would ultimately, as David H. Ucko wrote in a 2013 article for War on the Rocks, “have a tendency to wish away the very problems that cause insurgency in the first place: a lack of government legitimacy, split loyalties among the population, and contested governance among a range of armed political groups,” especially as U.S. and coalition forces struggled to consolidate security gains and extend the control of GIRoA. To paraphrase what Ucko wrote, “in the counterinsurgency vernacular, [U.S.] forces clear, but struggle to hold and build.”

What’s more, the problems with clear-hold-build were not only visible after the fact, but were directly apparent to even Afghan government representatives who, “expressed concern about this approach from the outset,” arguing that, “only districts that Afghan and international security forces could hold over the long term should be targeted with ministerial support.” Furthermore, despite the focus of stabilization efforts on the most insecure parts of Afghanistan, soon after these districts were identified as the focus of coalition efforts, “dozens of civ-mil District Support Teams (DST) were staffed with personnel from State, USAID, and USDA,” where, “once on site, DST personnel were tasked with integrating all stabilization activities and planning at the district level to build local governance capacity,” despite these areas often not being entirely secure and Afghan governing partners often not being empowered to operate freely without the approval of the provincial governor. 

However, even as USAID’s Provincial Reconstruction team office was rebranded as the Stabilization Unit (Stab-U) in February of 2010 and it provided a clearer definition of stabilization as, “help[ing] to reduce key [sources of instability] by engaging and supporting at-risk populations, extending the reach of [the government of Afghanistan] to unstable areas, providing income generation opportunities, building trust between citizens and their government, and encouraging local populations to take an active role in their development,” the steps required to achieve this goal were not clearly defined by policy makers, leaving each region to devise its own, preventing any unified “theory of change” from emerging and ultimately hindering efforts to uniformly institute stabilization programming. 

As a result of this haphazard approach, which included programs such as the Community Development Program (CDP) and Afghanistan Vouchers for Increased Productive Agriculture (AVIPA), cash-for-work programs were initiated that were intended to build community relationships with government officials that would select laborers from competing local groups for construction projects. While that approach was seen as a way to quickly and easily win the hearts and minds of local civilians by giving them jobs that they often desperately needed while simultaneously reducing the number of men that might pick up a rifle for the insurgency, these cash-for-work programs, “spent indiscriminately because the number of laborers hired and person-days of employment were the primary measure of success,” since the U.S. often had little if any presence on the ground to conduct any more robust measurement and evaluation of the impact of its projects. 

(To be continued…)

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Effective, Impartial, and Transparent: The Need for Civilian Review of Alleged Incidents of Civilian Harm in U.S. Military Operations

February 3, 2023

In August of 2021, as the U.S. military was completing its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone, using Hellfire missiles, destroyed a vehicle driving near Hamid Karzai International Airport that the Department of Defense initially said was laden with explosives. However, despite weeks of insisting that the strike was conducted against a legitimate enemy target, the U.S. was forced to launch an investigation into the incident after the New York Times published the results of their own visual investigation which challenged the military’s assertion that the vehicle posed a threat to U.S. forces. Despite the Times report, however, and even after Defense Secretary Austin on September 17th, 2021 directed a review into the strikes to determine who should be held accountable and the, “degree to which strike authorities, procedures and processes need to be altered in the future,” nearly a month later, victim Zemari Ahmadi’s brother said that he had not been contacted by the U.S. government to either apologize or offer solatia or condolence payments. Moreover, following the conclusion of the Department’s investigation, it was revealed that none of the military personnel involved in the failed drone strike would face any kind of punishment for their mistakes. 

Sadly, the strike in Kabul was not simply an isolated incident, but merely part of a pattern of U.S. behavior in conflicts around the world where the knee-jerk reaction by DOD officials regarding allegations of civilian harm caused by U.S. operations is to circle the wagons and deflect criticism and blame for faulty targeting or decision-making while shielding wrongdoers from meaningful repercussions. Moreover, the Department of Defense’s reflexive refusal to provide compensation or even apologize to victims—despite eventually providing an undisclosed sum to Ahmadi’s family at some point months later—demonstrates a troubling pattern of behavior from all levels of the military chain of command and speaks to issues in investigating and responding to incidents of civilian harm. As Steven Kwon, the founder and president of Nutrition & Education International—the California-based aid organization that employed Zemari Ahmadi—said to the Times that, the DOD’s, “decision is shocking,” and that, “how can our military wrongly take the lives of 10 precious Afghan people and hold no one accountable in any way.” Unfortunately, as Mr. Kwon will have likely discovered, this is sadly how the United States Department of Defense often behaves in the various armed conflicts it participates in around the globe. 

Indeed, in late December of 2021, the New York Times published a rather shocking exposé outlining the failures of the American air war in the Middle East from 2014-2018. The piece, its author Azmat Khan wrote, “lays bare how the air war has been marked by deeply flawed intelligence, rushed and often imprecise targeting, and the deaths of thousands of civilians, many of them children, a sharp contrast to the American government’s image of war waged by all-seeing drones and precision bombs.” Moreover, Khan’s Times report documents how incidents of alleged U.S-caused civilian harm were routinely highlighted by slipshod pre-strike processes and an overall culture of impunity that failed to: detect civilians, investigate incidents on the ground when they occurred, identify lessons learned after the fact, or discipline those who were responsible for the tragedies in the first place. More disturbingly, the Times report suggests a military that simply wants to look the other way when it comes to alleged incidents of civilian harm that occur during its operations. Such a situation is both morally indefensible and strategically untenable. The U.S. can, should, and must do better in transparently and credibly investigating alleged incidents of civilian harm caused by U.S. forces. 

The Detrimental Effects of U.S.-Caused Civilian Harm

The United States has known for years that the harm done to civilians from its military operations would have a deleterious effect on relationships with the populace. To that end, the Open Society Foundation’s Christopher D. Kolenda, Rachel Reid, Chris Rogers, and Marte Retzius wrote in a 2016 report, “The Strategic Costs of Civilian Harm: Applying Lessons from Afghanistan to Current and Future Conflicts,” that U.S.-caused civilian harm had, “severely undermined the legitimacy of the international mission and as its partner and ally, the legitimacy of the Afghan government.” Kolenda et al. further noted that in Afghanistan, “civilian harm was easily exploited by the Taliban,” as, “Taliban publications, public communications and propaganda routinely made use of incidents of civilian harm to paint U.S. forces as an indiscriminate, anti-Muslim occupation force.” Despite the fact that these Taliban allegations were often overblown or exaggerated, the civilian casualty incidents that did occur were frequent and widespread enough to lend credibility to such a propaganda campaign in the first place. 

Ultimately, while the Department of Defense (DOD) is endeavoring to reform its civilian harm mitigation and response efforts, the 2021 Times report does indicate that there are certain problems which are not likely to be solved through efforts such as more robust data management platforms, especially as the recently released Department of Defense Civilian Harm Mitigation Response Action Plan (CHMR-AP) does little to address issues relating to the independence and impartiality of the individuals investigating alleged incidents. Furthermore, until the forthcoming DOD Instruction on Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response is published later this year, the CHMR-AP is merely more of a list of desired improvements than a real path towards mitigating future civilian casualties in U.S. and partnered military operations. 

Whenever the DOD Instruction does emerge later this year, it must come with better procedures regarding the investigation into possible incidents of civilian harm or violations of international humanitarian law in armed conflict, with a special emphasis on the frameworks required to address questions of independence and impartiality regarding the military and civilian individuals tasked with looking into such alleged incidents. Moreover, in its quest to more adequately address future incidents of alleged civilian harm, the Defense Department must not forget to address prior cases where the DOD has received credible reports of civilian casualties—an issue that Senator Elizabeth Warren and Congresswoman Sara Jacobs recently highlighted in a December 19, 2022 letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin—making more frequent use of the $3 million per year that Congress has set aside for ex gratia payments to redress victims of injury and loss as part of the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. 

As Army Techniques Publication 3-7.06, Protection of Civilians, notes, “protection of civilians is important for moral, political, legal, and military reasons and must be addressed during unified land operations regardless of the primary mission.” Therefore, if the Department does not do more to address these issues, there is not only a risk that it will foster a culture of impunity amongst troops in the field and those making targeting decisions at headquarters, but it could pose real strategic concerns for future counter-insurgency operations, especially as, “studies show that counter-insurgencies fail when an insurgency has sustainable internal and external support, or a host nation government loses legitimacy,” and that, “civilian harm tends to accelerate both problems—it is like burning a candle at both ends with a blowtorch.” 

Challenges in Investigating Alleged Incidents of Civilian Harm

In light of these facts, it is important to take a look at some of the key issues related to investigations into alleged U.S.-caused civilian harm in armed conflict, especially as the U.S. continues to develop an over-the-horizon counterterrorism capability that have resulted in an increase in strikes conducted by unmanned American vehicles, whose operation can still be incredibly dangerous for civilians. 

Helpfully, the Center for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC) recently published a primer on “Investigations into Civilian Harm in Armed Conflict,” prepared by Claire Simmons as part of a partnership between CIVIC and the Essex University Crisis and Conflict Hub, which aims to identify challenges related to investigations into possible incidents of civilian harm and provides key recommendation for U.S. decision makers in ensuring that effective investigations into those incidents are subsequently carried out.

As Simmons points out, in addition to often being politically and strategically necessary, “States have an international legal obligation to conduct investigations into severe violations of international humanitarian law (IHL) and international human rights law,” and that, if they do not do so, other States may prosecute members of their armed forces under the principle of universal jurisdiction or through some kind of international criminal tribunal like the International Court of Justice. Moreover, Simmons notes, States also have, “an established obligation to conduct some form of effective investigation into other possible violations of international humanitarian law, including those that may have caused civilian harm.” 

However, in conducting these investigations, nations often run into a number of challenges which impede their overall effectiveness, and which often leave victims and their next-of-kin wondering if they’ve simply been further mistreated. More specifically, though, Simmons’ recent CIVIC paper outlines five key issues that States often face when conducting investigations into alleged incidents of civilian harm, beginning with the credibility of the allegations being made against the armed force involved. Here, she notes that the credibility of an allegation will always depend on the specific context involved. However, she also points out that the particular individual alleging that harm happened, the level of detail that they provide in making their claim, and the corroboration provided by other sources, will all ultimately determine whether an alleged incident of civilian harm is deemed credible by U.S. decision makers. However, despite Simmons’ admonition that, “States must not rely only on their own information to assess [an] allegations’ credibility,” especially as, “mistakes or inconsistencies in recording operational data may occur, and civilians may bring to the attention of militaries information about operations that they may be unaware of,” it appears that, all too often, that is exactly what happens. 

According to one recent RAND Corporation study looking at U.S. military operations from 2015-2017, during that period, “U.S. military officials did not sufficiently engage external sources for information before concluding that reports of civilian casualties were not credible,” choosing instead to rely on, “its own internal data and records [which] are sometimes incomplete.” As a result of this failure to give sufficient weight to external reporting avenues, Human Rights Watch wrote in 2017 that, “the U.S. government’s investigations regularly exclude one of the most important sources of evidence [in witness interviews], and are at odds with international fact-finding vest practice, developed over the past decades by researchers and investigators with human rights NGOs, the United Nations, and international criminal tribunals.”

Another issue that Simmons posits is standing in the way of effective investigations into alleged civilian harm incidents arises when alleged civilian harm incidents occur in difficult-to-reach locales, such as when the U.S. conducts its “over-the-horizon” drone strikes in Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, and elsewhere. With U.S. operators gathering their intelligence and manning drones hundreds or thousands of miles away from their intended target, “investigations into remote strikes with no personnel on the ground may consist primarily of reviewing pre- and post-strike footage (video or satellite imagery) and reviewing the decision-making process, such as the quality and sources of intelligence used and the analysis of this information.” In the case of these so-called “over-the-horizon” strikes, investigators are often unable to access the strike location and interview possible civilian witnesses on the ground who may corroborate possible civilian harm incidents. While non-governmental or civil society organizations and the media may conduct their own investigations, as seen above, the United States is often unwilling to accept or incorporate external sources of information regarding alleged incidents into its investigations. 

Yet another issue that was outlined in Simmons’ piece for CIVIC—and which will be addressed in more detail in a section below—is that military investigations are often seen as insufficiently independent and impartial by victims, their families, and/or their fellow citizens, limiting the investigation’s overall strategic and political value—especially in a counterinsurgency (COIN) environment. To overcome this issue, Simmons’ piece suggests that: military commanders have a role in ensuring that adequate safeguards are set up to ensure there is no conflict of interest between investigators and those being investigated; the complexity of an alleged incident may warrant outside expertise being brought in—for instance in evaluating what effects secondary explosions from U.S. strikes may have had on an alleged victim—to aid the investigation; independent oversight mechanisms—whether through appeals mechanisms, systems of inquiry, review procedures, legislative oversight or ombuds institutions—be established to ensure the accountability of investigators; and that there are simply certain situations where the use of members of the armed forces as investigators may affect the overall perception of justice on the part of the victim and their fellow citizens. 

The fourth challenge outlined by Simmons is that frequently, the U.S. is not the only military force operating in an area, with the frequency of partnered and Coalition operations only increasing in recent years. As Brookings Fellow, and former Air Force officer, Sara Kreps told the audience during an April 21, 2022 webinar on Protecting Civilians in Partnered Military Operations for the Brookings Institution, “since the end of the Cold War the United States is not fighting wars on its own. It’s always fighting with local partners, it’s fighting as part of a multilateral operation.” Moreover, in these multinational operations, it is often a challenge not only for victims to decipher which nation it was that actually caused them harm as well as the fact that different States often have different procedures and rules regarding investigations into possible violations as well as amends and reparations processes. As such, Simmons notes, these difficulties may create, “an apparent ‘cloak against accountability’ in which political and military stakeholders feel they have fewer incentives to hold their forces accountable for their actions.” 

In investigating and determining the ultimate responsibility for alleged incidents of civilian harm, Simmons argues, States engaging in coalition operations should look to agree on common investigative procedures through their various memoranda of understandings and status of forces agreements with partner countries. The creation of standardized procedures should support common documentation and reporting requirements as well as common thresholds to trigger an investigative review in the first place. 

One final barrier to effective investigations of civilian harm incidents in conflict zones that the CIVIC report lists is that States often do not provide enough transparency regarding the details of their investigations, resulting in an opaque process that reduces the legitimacy of investigation reports and undermines the credibility of U.S. military forces in the eyes of victims and their fellow citizens. While Simmons acknowledges that the exact degree of transparency required in an investigation will vary based on the particular context involved in the alleged violation, she does remark that, “the principle of transparency must…serve the overall effectiveness of the investigation and must, among other things, clarify the facts and judicial truths of a situation.” Despite what this principle would seem to require, however, States often impose blanket restrictions regarding information related to investigation on the grounds of national security, often insisting that transparency is not an absolute requirement and that it must be balanced with other, competing interests. 

Achieving Transparency, Impartiality, and Justice in Investigations in Armed Conflict

Fundamentally, then, the main tension when it comes to the effective investigation of alleged incidents of civilian harm caused during military operations is between what the military and civilians on the ground see as a “reasonable” investigation into the incident. As Claire Simmons also writes in a different paper for the International Review of the Red Cross, “Whose perception of justice?: Real and perceived challenges to military investigations in armed conflict,” any, “investigations into serious violations of IHL must be effective, and the adequacy of the reasonable measures put into an investigation must be assessed in light of this effectiveness.” However, she also notes that, “one of the biggest causes of contention regarding the effectiveness of any military investigation into possible violations of international law is the matter of independence and impartiality,” as, “it is often perceived that if military personnel investigate a member of the armed forces for alleged (criminal) offenses, this is nothing more than ‘the military investigating itself’, and an expectation exists that a finding of wrongdoing would have no credibility.” 

Whether it is in Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, or Yemen, U.S. airstrikes have resulted in the deaths of countless thousands of innocent civilians; and while the Department of Defense will likely claim that almost every single incident of civilians being killed was the result of a mistake or other error, the point remains that the armed forces of the United States has slaughtered far too many innocent non-combatants in the past two decades. Ultimately, the crushing volume of civilian deaths in U.S.-led operations, and the DOD’s stubborn refusal to thoroughly investigate alleged incidents before denying their validity—as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said in the aftermath of the U.S. strike in Kabul that killed Zemari Ahmadi, “the procedures were correctly followed and it was a righteous strike,”—demonstrates why the U.S. military is often not seen as a credible interlocutor in the eyes of victims and their fellow citizens. 

Brown University Cost of War Project Casualties in Major War Zones Oct 2001-Sept 2021/Source: https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Costs%20of%20War_Direct%20War%20Deaths_9.1.21.pdf
Brown University Cost of War Project Casualties in Major War Zones Oct 2001-Sept 2021/Source: https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Costs%20of%20War_Direct%20War%20Deaths_9.1.21.pdf

Essentially, when combining the U.S. military’s reflexive denial of culpability for civilian harm with the concern that civilians may have regarding military officials investigating the alleged harm caused by their own fellow service members, it can lead to a situation where civilians in the conflict area lose whatever small degree of trust that they have towards the armed forces, undermining the U.S.’ objective to help partner governments win the “hearts and minds” of civilians in counterinsurgency operations, and ultimately hindering the cooperation between the public and the military that is so often needed in even the modern conventional war environment

As Daniel Mahanty and Sahr Muhammedally write in their paper, “The Human Factor: The Enduring Relevance of Protecting Civilians in Future Wars,” not only does protecting civilians from harm in U.S. military operations help, “to fulfill the government’s public responsibility to protect the moral welfare of those who do the fighting,” but the United States, “learned through its experience in Vietnam that the use of unbridled violence in pursuit of war aims could be as much of a liability as an asset, not only with respect to the limited aims of winning the war, but in preserving the moral welfare of the country itself.” 

In examining investigations into civilian harm, it is important to, as Simmons states, look at the, “particular tensions [which] arise with the perception of justice in the context of military judicial procedures, especially surrounding questions such as whether independence is possibly within a chain of command, or how military culture might affect impartiality.” Moreover, “in addition to these challenges, the nature of an armed conflict itself can often lead to aggravated distrust of State institutions, leading to particular difficulties in establishing a perception of justice,” in the country where military operations are ongoing. 

In light of these facts, one way to examine Simmons’ recommendations for achieving the perception of justice in military investigations in armed conflict through the lens of the ongoing U.S. involvement in the fight against Al Shabaab in Somalia, a conflict that has recently seen U.S. troops return to ground operations, and which has already resulted in the killing of one high-ranking ISIS figure in recent days. As Amanda Sperber’s report for the Dutch peace organization PAX, “Is it too much to kill three or four Al Shabaab: Civilian perceptions on Al Shabaab and harm from US airstrikes in Jubbaland, Somalia,” submits, “the impact of [U.S.] airstrikes clearly takes a broad toll on communities across Jubbaland, affecting more than the intended targets alone and frequently resulting in long-term negative effects.” 

The number of US airstrikes per year, as declared by AFRICOM/Source: https://protectionofcivilians.org/wp-content/uploads/reports/2212-CH-Somalia_web_Single_Page-3.pdf#page=21
The number of US airstrikes per year, as declared by AFRICOM/Source: https://protectionofcivilians.org/wp-content/uploads/reports/2212-CH-Somalia_web_Single_Page-3.pdf#page=21

Despite this being the case, the United States, “has fallen short in providing meaningful response. In situations where [US Africa Command-AFRICOM] has acknowledged civilian harm, it has not communicated this to the victims or relatives thereof, who often had to learn of this through AFRICOM’s civilian casualty assessment reports…Nor have ‘credible’ assessments ever resulted in ex gratia payments to the affected civilians or their families.” As the U.S. is currently operating in Somalia in an attempt to shore up the administration of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and to, “enable a more effective fight against al Shabaab,” in a seeming continuation of former President Trump’s own approach to the country, the failure to effectively and transparently respond to alleged incidents of civilian harm are particularly harmful to the U.S.’ overall strategic goals in the country.

As the PAX report points out, under the Trump administration, one, “former Somali official described the situation as the US having been given a ‘blank check’ regarding airstrikes,” despite the fact that, “as the number of airstrikes increased, so did allegations of civilian casualties and reports of displacement and other civilian harm effects caused by US operations.” Despite these reports, however, there have been credible allegations that U.S. processes for investigating incidents of civilian harm in Somalia often do not satisfy the requirements for independence, impartiality, and effectiveness needed to provide justice for victims and their families. 

CIVIC - U.S. Investigations Process Map/Source: https://civiliansinconflict.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/In-Search-of-Answers-Report_Amended.pdf#page=22
CIVIC – U.S. Investigations Process Map/Source: https://civiliansinconflict.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/In-Search-of-Answers-Report_Amended.pdf#page=22

In examining the problems regarding the U.S. response to alleged cases of civilian harm caused by U.S. forces in Somalia, the PAX begins with a description of the investigative process from the point of view of AFRICOM. At first, the combatant command conducts an assessment to verify whether the date and location of an incident corresponds to instances of U.S. action in the area. If this is determined to be the case, the command then completes a Civilian Casualty Assessment Report which, “contains information about the incident, as well as documentation supporting its conclusions, such as full motion video.” The combatant command then comes to a conclusion, based on its own internal review, of whether an allegation is “credible”—meaning more likely than not that civilian deaths or injuries were caused as a result of U.S. military action—and publishes its determination on its website. 

However, as the PAX report notes, “researchers and civil society organizations have, over the years, identified several flaws and limitations in this system, not only in relation to AFRICOM but also with regards to US military practice overall.” The report notes—and a recent RAND Corporation report has also concluded—that human remains buried in the rubble of a building struck by an airstrike would often remain undetected from overhead video surveillance. Moreover, AFRICOM’s assessment procedure does not require its personnel to consult with non-military sources during their investigation, with the result that key data points may be overlooked. The report also notes that civil society activists have expressed frustration over the poor state of direct communications channels between AFRICOM and civil society organizations on the ground, with existing channels suffering from the key flaw that the main way to submit allegations of civilian harm caused by U.S. operations is through a web portal in a country with a a total Internet penetration rate of just 13.7%. Finally, Sperber notes that, “PAX research on this topic indicated that several Somalis who managed to use the system had not heard back from AFRICOM, receiving neither answers, acknowledgement, nor reparations,” in response to their allegations of some harm having been done. 

AFRICOM Civilian Casualty Reporting Portal/Source: https://www.africom.mil/civilian-casualty-reporting
AFRICOM Civilian Casualty Reporting Portal/Source: https://www.africom.mil/civilian-casualty-reporting

It can therefore be said that AFRICOM’s investigatory processes in Somalia run into the second, third, and fifth issues covered in the CIVIC report on investigations into civilian harm in armed conflict. Moreover, AFRICOM struggles with what Simmons calls the five general principles that are recognized as contributing towards the effectiveness of investigations: independence, impartiality, thoroughness, promptness and transparency

What’s more, even if AFRICOM were to improve its civilian harm reporting mechanisms through implementation of all of the methods recommended by PAX, including: the creation of a standalone, Somali-language civilian harm reporting web portal; establishment of a dedicated telephone line for reporting allegations of civilian harm caused by U.S. military actions; the leasing of physical office space—not only in Mogadishu but in areas around the country accessible to ordinary Somalis—where citizens can report incidents of civilian harm; or by enabling reports through trusted intermediaries like certain humanitarian organizations or Somali government representatives; it would still not be enough to alter the perception of civilians on the ground. In that event, decision makers would still likely be confronted with the perception that in conducting its own investigations, AFRICOM is merely the fox guarding the henhouse, undermining Somalis overall perception of whether justice has been provided to those that have been harmed. 

Impartiality and Independence in Internal Military Investigations

As Simmons points out in Whose perception of justice, there are two main elements most relevant to concerns of impartiality and independence in military investigations into alleged incidents of civilian harm: the military hierarchy and the overall culture of the military. When it comes to military hierarchy, Simmons argues that while, “an impartial investigator is expected to be able to make decisions related to the investigation (for example, in the collection of evidence) based solely upon the relevant facts of the case and the law or regulations applicable to the investigation procedures,” that, “disciplinary or administrative powers,” including the power to promote or demote another member of the military, “may lead them to consciously or unconsciously take into account whether their superior will approve or disapprove of the investigative decisions being made.” This can result in a situation where it is difficult for a junior officer to make a determination of U.S.-caused civilian harm if that officer feels that her superiors have an active interest in the determination that any civilian harm—if it was caused by an outside force—did not come from U.S. forces. 

Yet another area where issues of impartiality and independence exist is in the overall cultures of military forces, where, as author Mark Bowden once chronicled, soldiers in the head of battle think thoughts such as: “all that did matter were his buddies, his brothers, that they not get hurt, that they not get killed. These men around him, some of whom he had only known for mothers, were more important to him than life itself.” As Simmons writes, “in a similar fashion to investigations into police misconduct, there is an assumption that there are factors within military life and military culture which will affect the impartiality of investigators, regardless of any structural guarantees of independence that may be in place.” 

Indeed, Simmons notes, “the argument posited by some observers suggests that military personnel will necessarily seek to protect the personal interests of other military personnel out of a sense of institutional loyalty, beyond the interest of justice,” and that a sense of “toxic loyalty” amongst military personnel, “may lead to a ‘wall of silence’, a closing of ranks’ or ‘selective memory loss’ by military personnel in the face of investigators, as members of a unit may believe that ethically, and perhaps even militarily, the right thing to do is cover up for misconduct by their peers.” 

While Simmons acknowledges that the issue may not be solved only though replacing the military investigator with a civilian one—as civilians may hold a “toxic loyalty” to their own “side” in a conflict, refusing to see the actions of their own country’s military as unjustified—she does concede that, “there are…specificities unique to military institutions which can raise concerns with regard to these institutions’ ability to carry out effective investigations.” 

To address issues of toxic loyalty that might hinder effective and impartial investigations into alleged incidents of civilian harm, Simmons argues that it requires, “shaping adequate leadership within the armed forces, as well as appropriate training and effective sanctions of problematic behavior in order to ensure that the ‘right type’ of loyalty and values are upheld in the conduct of military operations.” 

Real-World Barriers to Impartiality and Independence in Internally-Led Investigations

Here, however, Simmons’ analysis may risk becoming a victim of wishful thinking, as evidence from the civilian policing world has shown that “adequate leadership” as well as “effective sanctions of problematic behavior” are both often hard, if not impossible, to find, as the overall culture of policing—or, in this case, the military—often inhibits States from putting in place the type of people that would provide the type of leadership that could ensure that that the rank-and-file have the “right type” of loyalty and values. For instance, in June of 2019 in New York City, the City Department of Investigation’s Office of the Inspector General of the New York City Police Department (OIG-NYPD) released its findings into an examination of how the NYPD investigates and tracks complaints of biased policing against its officers. In the report, the OIG-NYPD reviewed 596 cases concerning 888 alleged instances of biased policing and, “NYPD officials confirmed in June 2019 that the Department has never substantiated an allegation of biased policing since it began using this complaint category in 2014.” While the OIG-NYPD report did acknowledge that, “low substantiation rates for biased policing complaints exist in other large U.S. cities, NYPD’s zero substantiation rate stands out.” 

Often, the main problem hindering effective internal investigations of military—or police—wrongdoing emanates from the very top, as the military and police are frequently the only government agencies given the ability to truly make autonomous decisions. John Keane and Peter Bell in, “Ethics and police management: The impact of leadership style on misconduct by senior police leaders in the United Kingdom (UK) and Australia,” remark that previous research has, “observed that there are arguably few agency executive positions in government that possess the amount of discretion and autonomy given to police chiefs,” and that a 1998 survey of leaders of police departments from around the world found that most of the ones surveyed fit into a, “Machiavellian framework” where, “the Machiavellian leaders reported themselves to possess manipulative personality traits with a means-end management philosophy, that is to say, the means are justified by the ends.” 

Meanwhile, in their paper, “Principals with Agency: Assessing Civilian Deference to the Military,” authors Alice Hunt Friend and Sharon K. Weiner argue that, in the United States at least, “many practitioners [of civil-military relations], however, particularly those in uniform, tend to fret…about excessive civilian control,” as, “recurring debates about civilian ‘micromanagement’ of the military pivot on the assumption that the military ought to have an irreducible degree of autonomy from civilians,” with the result that a civilian overreliance on military expertise gives military actors the opportunity to hide information or problems from the appropriate oversight bodies, as military decision makers feel that their monopoly on the expertise regarding combat operations gives them the right to, “engineer the direction it prefers to receive from the civilian leadership.” In that way, military decision makers are even further insulated from civilian oversight, giving them even less of an incentive to look inwards at possibly problematic behavior from their fellow soldiers. 

This insulation from real civilian control can be more clearly seen in the U.S. military’s epidemic of military sexual assault, where, a 2021 New York Times feature chronicles, “for decades, sexual assault and harassment have festered through the ranks of the armed forces with military leaders repeatedly promising reform and then failing to live up to those promises.” The Times report argues that, “one key reason troops who are assaulted rarely see justice is the way in which such crimes are investigated,” as, “under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, military commanders decide whether to investigate and pursue legal action.” Meanwhile, the Pentagon has “vehemently opposed” efforts by legislators like New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand who has introduced legislation to put the decision to prosecute major military crimes into the hands of independent prosecutors.

If military commanders are willing to look the other way when it comes to investigating allegations of crimes committed against their own female soldiers, it does not require an enormous leap of the imagination to speculate that these same commanders may not want to investigate possible allegations of civilian harm caused by their fellow soldiers, especially as military forces too often dehumanize enemy forces in a way that ends up distorting soldiers’ views on even the civilians in the countries that they are fighting to protect. 

As U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonels Peter Fromm, Douglas Pryer, and Kevin Cutright write in their piece, “The Myths We Soldiers Tell Ourselves: and the Harm These Myths Do,”  for, “the soldier at war, objectifying oneself as superior and the ‘other’ as inferior can rapidly transform even minor abuses into very serious crimes.” Fromm et al. continue that compounding the problem of “othering” the enemy, “is another delusion— the belief of leaders that such dehumanization can be controlled, noting how, “at places like Bagram, Abu Ghraib, Mosul, and al Qaim, relatively minor detainee abuse turned into horrific crimes that shocked the world.” Moreover, they state that despite the U.S. military opening hundreds of investigations into allegations of detainee abuse, “even in those cases where investigators found criminal negligence, military commanders consistently chose not to punish wrongdoers,” despite strong anecdotal evidence suggesting that the number of crimes reported was only the proverbial tip of the iceberg in terms of the actual scale of detainee abuse. 

Fromm, Pryer, and Cutright also point to the rather shocking results of the Mental Health Advisory Teams in Iraq and Afghanistan whose 2006 survey of service members found that, “only 47 percent of soldiers and 38 percent of marines agreed that noncombatants should be treated with dignity and respect,” with, “more than one-third of all soldiers and marines [reporting] that torture should be allowed to save the life of a fellow soldier or marine,” and, “less of half of marines [saying] they would report a team member for unethical behavior.” Similarly distressing is the result of a 2013 Department of Defense Legal Policy Board report, which discovered that, “evidence exists that Service members are at the point of contact or their leaders have been reluctant to inform the command of reportable incidents [of civilian harm],” and that, “this reluctance may be attributed to any number of potential factors including a feeling of justification in connection with actions taken, fear of career repercussions, loyalty to fellow Service members or the unit, or ignorance,” with the result that, “one survey of Marines and soldiers in Iraq reported that only 40% of Marines and 55% of soldiers indicated they would report a unit member for injuring or killing an innocent non-combatant.”

Further demonstrating this troubling perception of the relative value of non-combatants compared to that of their fellow soldiers are the actions of some elite U.S. units such as the Delta-force manned Talon Anvil in Syria, which, according to a December 2021 report by the New York Times’ Dave Philipps, Eric Schmitt, and Mark Mazetti, “launched tens of thousands of bombs and missiles against the Islamic State in Syria, but in the process…the shadowy force sidestepped safeguards and repeatedly killed civilians, according to multiple current and former military and intelligence officials.” The result of which was, despite growing evidence that the unit was recklessly responsible for a growing number of civilian casualties, a former Air Force intelligence officer told the Times reporters that, “leaders seemed reluctant to scrutinize a strike cell that was driving the offensive on the battlefield.”

Specifically, in the case of the Talon Anvil operators, the Times reports that, under pressure to protect allied ground troops and advance the U.S.’ stalled offensive, the unit began to claim that nearly every strike that they called in was in self-defense, enabling them to get easier and more rapid approval for airstrike requests from top Generals, despite the sped up process resulting in, “less time to gather intelligence and sort enemy fighters from civilians,”  even as, “a senior military official with direct knowledge of the task force said that what counted as an ‘imminent threat’ was extremely subjective and Talon Anvil’s senior Delta operators were given broad authority to launch defensive strikes,” leading to strikes that harmed civilians. 

This broadly permissive environment ended up having a deleterious and catastrophic impact on task force members’ objectivity and even humanity, as Philipps et al. discuss a, “former Air Force intelligence officer [who] said he saw so many civilian deaths as a result of Talon Anvil’s tactics citing self-defense that he eventually grew jaded and accepted them as part of the job.” Moreover, this problem extended far beyond just Talon Anvil operators, as another Times piece from Philipps and Schmitt from November 2021 noted how that while classified special operations unit Task Force 9, “typically played only an advisory role in Syria…by late 2018, about 80 percent of all airstrikes it was calling in claimed self-defense, according to an Air Force office who reviewed the strikes,” as the units’ Delta Operators and soldiers from the 5th Special Forces Group attempted to sidestep the law of armed conflict in ways that resulted in the needless deaths of civilians

Furthermore, this mis-labeling of strikes as being in self-defense rather than being offensive in nature, and conducted against locations with possible civilian inhabitants, performed an end-run around the U.S. military’s joint targeting process that aimed to incorporate elements of international law—which includes requirements to distinguish combatants from non-combatants, but which can extend the lead time for deliberate target selection and vetting to a minimum of twenty-four hours—but which could hinder the ability of operators to conduct rapid operations against what they feel are legitimate military targets. 

As Ben Waldman and Michael Paradis wrote for the Lawfare blog in February of last year, while, “to be sure, the rigor of the joint targeting process can feel like cumbersome and even life-threatening red tape when real-time battlefield conditions require air support,” the, “most dangerous gap in the existing joint targeting process is not that it can be circumvented when the needs of self-defense require. It is that it lacks any disincentive against circumventing its safeguard entirely and routinely by declaring every strike an act of self-defense.”

In that respect, there seems to exist a current in at least some sectors of the U.S. military—and especially the special operations community—that the targeting rules that exist to prevent the needless deaths of civilians merely function as a barrier to their advancement of overall tactical and strategic goals, as well as to the protection of their fellow service members. This is a type of “toxic loyalty” to both the mission and their fellow soldier that has not only led to clear instances of civilian harm, but has seemingly hindered retroactive investigations into alleged instances of harm caused by U.S. forces. 

Moreover, as was seen in the aforementioned case of the NYPD—or, for example, the Baltimore Police Department, Los Angeles Police Department, or even the South African Police Service—police forces, especially as they have become more militarized over the years, have encouraged an “us versus them” mindset which has, for the police, damaged relations with the civilian populace and created barriers to effective community policing. This same mindset has enabled militaries, which have historically viewed enemy combatants as “savages” and “barbarians” to further disregard the humanity of those they are fighting to the point where it is difficult for some soldiers to distinguish between a member of a non-state armed group and one of the NSAG members’ fellow countrymen, resulting in a huge number of U.S.-caused civilian casualties in recent years.

Overcoming this mindset will require those investigating alleged incidents of civilian harm not only be exist outside of the chain of command of those they are investigating, but that they have a patina of credibility that demonstrates to potential perpetrators that future investigators will not be overly swayed by personal, service, or unit loyalty while simultaneously conveying to potential victims—and their families and fellow citizens—that the United States is committed to the pursuit of justice and ensuring that the rule of law is upheld. 

Justice in Armed Conflict and the Proper Degree of Civilian Oversight of the Military

As David Barno and Nora Bensahel wrote in an excellent 2020 piece for War on the Rocks, more than twenty years of the “War on Terror” has put an enormous amount of strain on the U.S. military in general and on the special operations forces community in particular. The result of which has been that the past few years have seen special operators, “involved in an explosion of very public misconduct and indiscipline cases,” including a Green Beret Major named Mathew Golsteyn murdering an unarmed captive during a 2011 interrogation, Navy SEALs beating bound detainees, and—perhaps most infamously—the case of Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher who was accused by his own platoon members of shooting civilians and fatally stabbing a captive with a hunting knife. While the high pace of operations over the past twenty years has increased the level of strain on both regular and elite units alike, it is not an excusable explanation for the subsequent rise in civilian harm incidents. However, no matter the cause, the situation is untenable as too often those responsible for malfeasance are not brought to anything even approaching justice

In Simmons’ Whose perception of justice, the author argues that, “one measure that may be taken to improve the perception of justice is to increase the level of civilian involvement in military justice.” Indeed, what the New York Times’ excellent opinion writer Jamelle Bouie wrote earlier this week in a piece about American policing can also easily be applied to the United States armed forces, in that:

“With great power should come greater responsibility and accountability. The more authority you hold in your hands, the tighter the restraints should be on your wrists. To give power and authority without responsibility or accountability — to give an institution and its agents the right and the ability to do violence without restraint or consequence — is to cultivate the worst qualities imaginable, among them arrogance, sadism and contempt for the lives of others. 

It is, in short, to cultivate the attitudes and beliefs and habits of mind that lead too many American police officers to beat and choke and shock and shoot at a moment’s notice, with no regard for either the citizens or the communities we’re told they’re here to serve and protect.”

Just as the U.S. military—and especially its special operations forces soldiers—gives its soldiers a great deal of power over the lives of civilians in their area of operations, it also must demand a concomitant amount of accountability for their actions, lest military leaders and civilian decision makers begin to cultivate a sense of arrogance and contempt for the lives of civilians amongst rank-and-file soldiers. However, such arrogance and contempt for those with less power can already be seen through the pervasive problem of sexual assault against female servicewomen; a problem that got so bad that Congress felt the need to remove military commanders from the position of prosecuting service members for sexual assault in the first place. 

Moreover, Congress’ actions on sexual assault is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to rebalancing civilian control of the military. As the 2018 final report of the National Defense Strategy Commission elucidated, the authors came away from their consultations with civilian and military leaders in the Department of Defense—as well as with representatives of other U.S. government departments and agencies, allied diplomats and military officials, and independent experts—with a sense that, “civilian voices were relatively muted on issues at the center of U.S. defense and national security policy, undermining the concept of civilian control.” What’s more, implementing a greater degree of civilian control over issues central to U.S. defense and national security policy—including the protection of civilians in armed conflict and thoroughly and transparently investigating alleged incidents of civilian harm caused by U.S. forces—will be difficult to do with regard to a military that is not looking to accept a greater degree of civilian control and oversight. 

Indeed, one merely has to look at the recent writing of Col. Todd Schmidt, Director of the Army University Press at Army University, and particularly his piece for Military Review which demonstrates the recalcitrance of high-ranking military officers when it comes to civilian oversight and their generally poor view of the qualifications of most civilians to oversee the military. As Schmidt argues, “military elites are relied upon to establish, lead, manage, and implement policy that has become ever more militarized and less whole-of-government in its approach. In return, military elites are reportedly disconcerted by the amateurism of their civilian counterparts within the national security process.” While it is likely that civilian leaders have largely brought about this situation by themselves through delegating important national security decisions to military leaders in recent decades, articles like Col. Schmidt’s practically drip with contempt for the ability and intellect of his civilian overseers. Particularly concerning are statements such as:

“…for the military, issues of national security are existential. We have deployed and fought for over twenty years in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our families are committed. Our sons and daughters now increasingly wear the uniform in what has become the ‘family business.’ We are stewards of the military profession. We have a little skin in the game. So, while civilians come and go from government, more concerned with maintaining power than ensuring good governance, the military remains vigilantly engaged, safeguarding the system and the Republic. It is incumbent on those civilians that wish to serve, whether in elected or appointed positions, to be equally, if not more so, qualified, engaged, and committed to duty to country.” 

That type of statement, published openly in the annals of the, “Professional Journal of the U.S. Army,” demonstrates a level of contempt for civilian oversight that should be troubling to anyone examining the issue of how to keep human rights and the overall U.S. strategic good at the fore of U.S. armed forces policy and practice. While no one should denigrate the sacrifice and commitment of soldiers like Col. Schmidt—and it truly is easy to sympathize with the argument that he makes—it is highly troubling that he and soldiers like him view their service as somehow entitling them to a greater say in the strategic direction of the country than the democratically elected leaders they report to or the voting public who elects those leaders. 

The United States is not some kind of Heinlein-esque fantasy where only those individuals who have donned a uniform are entitled to the right to make decisions for society. Despite this, soldiers like Col. Schmidt would seemingly have you think that the vast majority of our country’s dedicated public servants are mediocrities incapable and unworthy of overseeing the committed professionals in the U.S. armed forces. While this attitude is massively disrespectful to the ranks of brilliant and dedicated professionals working at all levels throughout the country’s national security architecture, it also ignores the concomitant and rather dramatic drop in trust that the majority of Americans have had in the military since the early days of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as accusations of war crimes and an uptick in military involvement in political matters makes Americans view the armed forces with a renewed degree of skepticism. 

As Col. Schmidt’s piece seems to indicate, there seems to be a definite strain of thinking in many sectors of the U.S. armed forces that after more than twenty years of non-stop wars around the world, no one is better positioned than members of the military to dictate their own course. However, nothing could be farther from the truth; and in fact, those years of war and the resultant strain it has put on the American military is exactly the reason why more civilian oversight is required to avoid both military overreach as well as future incidents of civilian harm. 

A military that views itself as a people apart from—and even above of—the rest of society is a dangerous combination, and one that can be a recipe for abuse. As Mara Karlin and Alice Hunt Friend wrote for Foreign Policy back in 2018, “to be sure, there is a unique perspective provided by serving in a war zone. But dismissing other perspectives propagates the notion that those in uniform hold a singularly superior understanding of use of force issues.” Moreover, Karlin and Hunt Friend write that, “although combat experience cannot easily be replicated, that does not mean judgment cannot be developed off the battlefield or that civilians are not competent to question operational decisions.”

What’s more, Karlin and Hunt Friend note that the, “idea that civilian politicians are ‘empty barrels’ in contrast to substantive, hardened warriors undergirds the argument that officers and veterans must also fill moral vacuums in strategic leadership—and defy what they deem civilian mistakes when necessary.” They note the writings of U.S. Marine Corps officer Andrew Milburn who argued in 2010 that military members have a, “‘moral autonomy’ that ‘obligates[s] him to disobey an order he deems immoral.’ In his piece, Karlin and Hunt Friend argue, “[Milburn] referred not to questions of an order’s legality but to errors in strategic cost-benefit analysis.” For Karlin and Hunt Friend, “this argument assumes that those in uniform are positioned to make superior political calculations, rather than entertaining the idea that political calculations may be driving the direction politicians give to the military.” Finally, they conclude that, “the uses and ethical limits of power are not something the American people should rely on military professionals alone to define and defend, unless wider social influence over the use of force is no longer a goal of U.S. democracy.” 

Whether it is the strike in Kabul that killed Zemari Ahmadi, the staggering amount of civilians dead in Raqqa, Syria, or civilian deaths from U.S. drone strikes in Jubbaland, Somalia, it is abundantly clear that the U.S. military has frequently proven either unwilling or incapable of adequately addressing incidences of civilian harm in such a way that fundamentally reduces the number of civilian harm incidents and prevents them from occurring in the first place. While the Department of Defense’s August 2022 Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan is certainly a step in the right direction, it is currently too vague in terms of the specific structures that will be created to investigate alleged incidents of civilian harm as well as the role of civilian personnel in conducting such investigations to be truly transformational.

Civilian Deaths in the War in Somalia/Source: https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/reports/americas-counterterrorism-wars/the-war-in-somalia/
Civilian Deaths in the War in Somalia/Source: https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/reports/americas-counterterrorism-wars/the-war-in-somalia/

It is simply not enough to “establish Department-wide procedures for assessing and investigating civilian harm resulting from operations,” if the people doing the investigating are in any way likely to cover up the results of the investigation. As Claire Simmons submits in Whose perception of justice, “assessing who is best placed to carry out an effective investigation requires determining the purpose of the investigation. If the purpose goes beyond criminal accountability and traditional legal adjudication, but rather might involve the dissemination of truth and the recording of different accounts by those involved, the answer to the question ‘who can most effectively investigate?’ may well change and may involve a greater variety of actors from civil society.” However, she notes that the perception of justice in such cases can be hard to achieve, especially in cases where victims, “do not perceive the justice system as independent, impartial or generally just.”

In cases where members of the armed forces are the only individuals conducting an investigation into alleged wrongdoing by their fellow members of the military, it may be impossible to establish a perception of justice amongst the aggrieved, whether or not those conducting the investigation truly believe themselves to be acting in an impartial manner. As the old saying goes, “Caesar’s wife must be beyond suspicion,”; similarly, so must the United States armed forces if they wish to have any credibility amongst the populations that they are working amongst in both current and future conflicts. 

While, under international law, Simmons notes, “States may still legally use military justice systems in various situations, including to investigate possible violations of IHL,” there are real-world implications to allowing the proverbial fox to investigate an alleged death in the henhouse. While the service member in this case is likely well trained, and may even have a genuine moral commitment to ensuring that justice comes to even their fellow soldiers, if military-led and -run investigations into alleged civilian harm come back with the verdict that no one in uniform bears any responsibility for the harm, it will likely prove impossible to convince the victims family or many of their fellow citizens that the investigation was truly impartial and independent. 

Simmons finishes her paper stating that, “fair scrutiny of military investigations into possible violations of IHL requires considering how military institutions can carry out effective investigations with adequate structural safeguards and due diligence measures in order to mitigate challenges that are likely to arise in military contexts.” Moreover, while she is probably correct that, “as long as armed conflicts exist, it is likely that military bodies will have a role in judicial proceedings involving their personnel,” it is incumbent on political decision makers to ensure that these investigatory processes are structured in such a way that they get at the truth of the incident in question. The United States certainly does not have any interest in exposing members of its armed forces to unnecessary legal jeopardy for their necessary actions during wartime. However, especially when it comes to counterinsurgency operations like those ongoing in Somalia, both do retain a strong interest in ensuring that violations of international law and harm to civilians are investigated thoroughly, with offenders brought to account for their crimes. 

U.S. Strikes in Somalia Since 2007/Source: https://www.longwarjournal.org/us-airstrikes-in-the-long-war
U.S. Strikes in Somalia Since 2007/Source: https://www.longwarjournal.org/us-airstrikes-in-the-long-war

Civilian Review Boards for Civilian Harm Incidents

A more transparent and impartial process, therefore, would require greater civilian oversight at all stages of the process, from the recording of incidents to their investigation and ultimate resolution, as there are both real and perceived issues of impartiality and independence when it comes to members of the military investigating their fellow service members. To that end, the creation of an effective, expert civilian review board process would best ensure that members of the military are held accountable for their actions in a conflict area. While such a review board would obviously run into some of the same difficulties that military investigators have when it comes to investigating incidents where the U.S. has little or no access beyond surveillance footage, it could help with assessing the credibility of allegations made by locals, as well as increase both the independence and transparency of the resulting investigations. 

As former Executive Director of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of New Jersey, Udi Ofer, wrote in 2016 about police investigations into alleged police wrongdoing, “having police officers police themselves presents obvious conflicts of interest, while having civilians conduct these investigations provides an external check on the police.” While police and armed forces are not entirely analogous—as the military has a stricter code of conduct and disciplinary process under the Uniform Code of Military Justice—they are similar in that they are both armed agents of the state with license to use deadly force when they feel it is justified. 

To paraphrase what Ofer writes in his paper on the need for greater civilian oversight of the police, there is a need to hold service members accountable for the unjustified use of deadly force against civilians. Moreover, there is a need for the establishment of units within existing agencies, that are charged with reviewing patterns in military practices that may reveal broader problems relating to civilian harm.

While civilian complaint review boards have existed since the 1940s in the United States, a frequent knock on them has been that they have largely been ineffectual and unable to actually hold police officers accountable for their alleged misconduct. However, one of the biggest challenges to these boards’ ability to perform their functions is their limited authority, which, “creates barriers to their ability to obtain necessary information and conduct independent investigations because they lack the power to compel officer testimony,” and they often lack subpoena power. Indeed, as the Council on Criminal Justice’s Task Force on Policing further noted in April 2021, “even boards that have investigative roles are not well equipped to serve in that capacity because their members do not always have appropriate training or expertise.” 

An effective civilian review board for alleged incidents of civilian harm caused by the U.S. armed forces would likely require many of the same elements that Udi Ofer outlines in his evaluation of the elements of effective civilian review boards. The first element of a successful Department of Defense-based civilian review board for alleged civilian harm incidents caused by U.S. operations would therefore be for its board members to be nominated by civil society in both the U.S. and on the ground in the conflict zone, with members of the board required to have a good deal of expertise in a field such as law, civil rights, law enforcement, the military, or forensics. While the total number of ex-military members should obviously be limited to a small minority of the board’s total membership, the experience of at least one ex-servicemember would likely be invaluable to the other experts on the panel. 

Furthermore, following the model of a strong civilian review board that was proposed in Newark, New Jersey in 2016, a DOD expert civilian review board for each geographic combatant command could be comprised of eleven members, with seven U.S. citizens nominated by civil society and human rights organizations in both the United States and the country in conflict, which are then presented to the Secretary of Defense, who then appoints the remaining review board members subject to the approval of the President. 

A civilian review board for civilian harm incidents would also require a broad latitude to investigate complaints of civilian harm, with the ability to investigate not only the deaths of civilians in armed conflict but those attacks that result in “reverberating effects” on civilians, including displacement, loss of livelihood, and stigmatization, with the victim and/or their families able to receive acknowledgement and proper redress for their situations if they are the result of unlawful or negligent action from U.S. service members. 

Importantly, the expert civilian review board must have independent investigatory authority, with the power to subpoena witnesses and documents, including internal disciplinary documents relating to involved service members, medical records, surveillance footage, and any other materials relevant to the investigation. However, this is likely to be an area of disagreement between DOD and civilian harm prevention practitioners, as there are likely to be issues of classification involved with reviewing at least some aerial footage of alleged incidents of civilian harm. As efficacy of these boards will likely hinge on their ability to request and review this classified data, the boards will either have to be staffed entirely by individuals able to achieve a high-level security clearance from the DOD or, more likely, will require the statutory creation of a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court-like body—along with the designation of appropriate amici to inform the court about specific legal or technical issues in certain cases—that can issue rulings on the declassification of documents and other data on a case-by-case basis, adjudicating whether DOD has legitimate interest in classifying the information or whether it can be provided—in redacted or partially-unredacted form—to the review board to enable them to effectively complete their inquiries. 

Once the review board’s investigation is complete, the overall effectiveness of the board and its contribution to the overall perception of justice will mean ensuring that discipline sticks, with the findings of the board being binding on the commander involved. Moreover, the appropriate discipline matrix for alleged infractions must be determined before the review board first sits, with soldiers knowing fully, and in advance, what punishments that they might face as a result of the review board process. As Ofer states in his review of civilian review boards, “this formula not only ensures discipline when the civilian review board finds that wrongdoing has occurred, but it also creates transparency and predictability in the process, allowing the public to know ahead of time what type of discipline will be faced for which type of misbehavior,” granting victims a measure of confidence that justice will be done. Just as with the example of the proposed Newark, NJ review board, exceptions to the review board’s findings must be created for when a “clear error” was made in the board’s investigation, with the Secretary of Defense entitled to make final decisions on whether or not the board’s findings are ,”based upon obvious and indisputable errors [which] cannot be supported by any reasonable interpretation of the evidence.” Absent such a clear error, the civilian review board’s findings would be binding on all individuals involved, up to and including the Secretary of Defense. 

A civilian review board for alleged incidents of civilian harm would also require its expert members to have the authority to review the underlying policies that led to incidents in the first place. For example, if the board is made aware of a pattern of civilian harm incidents in a particular U.S. military operation or theater, it should have the power to investigate any evidence that the geographic combatant command or individual units are involved in repeated incidents of civilian harm. Such a review would help uncover whether alleged incidents are a result of a poorly designed pre-strike assessment process, the use of certain munitions in populated environments, a command-wide lack of focus on potential civilian harm, or even the negligence of a particular unit or individual. Once the review board has completed their investigation, it should also have the authority to make formal recommendations for policy reforms to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, and the President, with the findings also published as a report to the public both in the U.S. and the affected country—translated into the appropriate local language, as necessary. 

Just as with civilian review boards in municipal situations, a potential Department of Defense Civilian Review Board for Alleged Incidents of Civilian Harm would have to be funded in such a way that makes it secure from political manipulation that might weaken it. As seen with the cases of Chief Petty Officer Eddie Gallagher and Maj. Mathew Golsteyn, punishing alleged perpetrators of civilian harm can be politically unpopular amongst certain segments of the populace. As a result, there may be a temptation on the behalf of politicians to attempt to interfere with the proceedings of the review board by threatening to withdraw funding in the event of a particularly unpopular decision by the board’s members. To insulate the board from such cuts, the board’s budget might be tied to the overall DOD budget or even the budgets for the individual geographic combatant command involved, with the percentage of the department’s budget committed to the review board fixed by law. The percentage must be enough to fully staff the review board, including funds for, “an executive director, investigators, attorneys to prosecute the complaints, and analysts to audit departmental policies and practices,” with the budget also including enough funding for local office space in or near the relevant conflict, travel to and from the sites of alleged incidents, outreach to affected communities and civil society organizations, and training for investigative officers conducting complex investigations. 

The review board must also come with due process protections for service members, with those accused of wrongdoing able to contest the allegations as well as the findings of investigators. Moreover, service members and their attorneys must be allowed access to the evidence used against them, be permitted to provide testimony, and to offer responses and defenses to the alleged misconduct. The review board should also have an independent appeals process, with service members retaining their rights as soldiers throughout the entirety of the process. 

Finally, the review board must create a process whereby affected civilians can easily file complaints regarding alleged incidents of harm. As mentioned above, PAX’s Erin BijL has argued this requires either making the complaint process easier to find on DOD’s website or setting up a standalone website in the most-used languages of the conflict zone where the U.S. operates, setting up a dedicated phone line where civilians can make complaints of harm caused to them, their families, or their community members, a physical office located in an easily accessible area for local civilians, or through enabling reports to be taken by trusted intermediaries—such as certain civil society organizations or government representatives—and conveyed to the review board. 

As Ofer allows in his own conclusion, “building an effective civilian review board is no easy task,” as it requires both public support, a willing government, and the time and resources to make it all work. As a consequence, municipal civilian review boards across the country have been hampered by their lack of power to subpoena or make discipline stick, with the result that they have largely been seen as ineffectual. 

Final Thoughts

The mere perception of impropriety and partiality when it comes to incidents of civilian harm can not only undermine overall counterinsurgency strategy, it can fatally damage the essential relationship between the military and the entire civilian populace. While the Department of Defense is still gearing up for great power competition and peer-competitor conflicts, the vast majority of the troops it has currently deployed are operating in contexts where the buy-in of the civilian populace is still key. Moreover, as the Ukrainian experience has demonstrated to both Kyiv and Moscow, Russian atrocities committed against civilians have only strengthened Ukrainians commitment to repel the Russian assault on their homeland and demonstrated the strategic damage that can be caused by harming civilians.

Therefore, the lesson for the United States is that no matter if the conflict is a future counterinsurgency operation or a full-scale great power conflict against a peer-competitor, the importance of preventing and responding to alleged incidents of civilian harm should remain at the forefront of all operational planning and guidance. If civilians are harmed in the course of U.S. operations, there is an enormous risk that the civilian populace could withdraw their support for the campaign, which is always vital in COIN operations and—as Ukraine’s population has demonstrated—may also be critical in a future fight against a peer competitor.

The only way to ensure the buy-in of the civilian populace in the modern war environment—where mistakes can, do, and will happen—is to guarantee that any and all incidents of civilian harm are investigated in an efficient, transparent, and impartial manner. However, the only way to ensure the full impartiality of an investigation into alleged civilian harm committed by members of the U.S. armed forces is to guarantee to the civilian populace that members of the military will not be the ones primarily responsible for investigating alleged harm caused by their fellow Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, or Marines. .

While an expert-led civilian review board would likely encounter stiff resistance from both high-ranking figures in the military and some segments of the political class, past experience has shown that permitting the military to investigate itself has resulted in substandard results that have had calamitous results for civilian lives and overall U.S. strategy to help win over the population in countries where our troops are supporting local governments and combating non-state armed groups. By handing over the process to civilians—from the initial receipt of allegations to the determination of punishments—it can hopefully result in a more transparent and fair process that will help prevent future incidents from occurring in the first place and secure the buy-in of the civilian population both at home and abroad.

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Telling the Truth and Making Amends: Investigating Incidents of Civilian Harm in Armed Conflict (Unfinished Draft Version)

January 27, 2023

In August of 2021, as the U.S. military was completing its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone using Hellfire missiles blew up a vehicle near Hamid Karzai International Airport that the Department of Defense initially said was laden with explosives. However, despite weeks of insisting that the strike was conducted against a legitimate target, a U.S. investigation was only launched after the New York Times published the results of their own visual investigation that challenged the military’s assertion that the vehicle posed a threat to U.S. forces. Despite the Times report, and even after Defense Secretary Austin on September 17th, 2021 directed a review into the strikes to determine who should be held accountable and the, “degree to which strike authorities, procedures and processes need to be altered in the future,” nearly a month later, victim Zemari Ahmadi’s brother said that he had yet to be contacted by the U.S. government to either apologize or offer solatia or condolence payments. Moreover, at the end of the Department’s investigation, it was revealed that none of the military personnel involved in the failed drone strike would face any kind of punishment for their mistakes. 

Sadly, the strike in Kabul was not an isolated incident, but merely part of a pattern of U.S. behavior in conflicts around the world where the knee-jerk reaction by DoD officials to allegations of civilian harm caused by U.S. operations is to circle the wagons and deflect criticism or blame for faulty targeting and decision-making while shielding wrongdoers from repercussions. Moreover, the Department of Defense’s reflexive refusal to provide compensation or even apologize to victims—despite eventually providing an undisclosed sum to Ahmadi’s family at some point months later—demonstrates a troubling pattern of behavior from all levels of the military chain of command and speaks to issues in investigating and responding to incidents of civilian harm. As Steven Kwon, the founder and president of Nutrition & Education International, the California-based aid organization that employed Zemari Ahmadi said to the Times, the DoD’s, “decision is shocking,” and that, “how can our military wrongly take the lives of 10 precious Afghan people and hold no one accountable in any way.” Unfortunately, as Mr. Kwon will have likely discovered, this is simply how the United States military behaves in armed conflicts around the globe. 

Indeed, in late December of 2021, the New York Times published a rather shocking exposé outlining the failures of the American air war in the Middle East from 2014-2018. The piece, its author Azmat Khan wrote, “lays bare how the air war has been marked by deeply flawed intelligence, rushed and often imprecise targeting, and the deaths of thousands of civilians, many of them children, a sharp contrast to the American government’s image of war waged by all-seeing drones and precision bombs.” Moreover, Khan’s report documents how U.S.-led investigations into alleged incidents of civilian harm were routinely marred by slipshod pre-strike processes and an overall culture of impunity that failed to detect civilians, investigate incidents on the ground, identify lessons learned, or discipline those who were responsible for the tragedies in the first place. More disturbingly, the Times report suggests a military that simply wants to look the other way when it comes to alleged incidents of civilian harm that occur during its operations. Such a situation is both morally indefensible and strategically untenable. 

The United States has known for years that the harm done to civilians from its military operations would have a deleterious effect on relationships with the populace, as the Open Society Foundation’s Christopher D. Kolenda, Rachel Reid, Chris Rogers, and Marte Retzius wrote in a 2016 report, “The Strategic Costs of Civilian Harm: Applying Lessons from Afghanistan to Current and Future Conflicts,” that U.S.-caused civilian harm had, “severely undermined the legitimacy of the international mission and as its partner and ally, the legitimacy of the Afghan government.” Kolenda et al. further noted that, “civilian harm was easily exploited by the Taliban,” as, “Taliban publications, public communications and propaganda routinely made use of incidents of civilian harm to paint U.S. forces as an indiscriminate, anti-Muslim occupation force.” Despite the fact that these Taliban allegations were often overblown or exaggerated, the civilian casualty incidents that did occur were frequent and widespread enough to lend credibility to such a propaganda campaign in the first place. 

Ultimately, while the Department of Defense (DoD) is endeavoring towards reforming its civilian harm mitigation and response efforts, the 2021 Times report does indicate that there are certain problems which are not likely to be solved through more robust data management platforms, especially as the recently released Department of Defense Civilian Harm Mitigation Response Action Plan (CHMR-AP) does little to address issues relating to the independence and impartiality of investigators. Furthermore, until the issuance of the forthcoming DoD Instruction on Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response later this year, the CHMR-AP is simply more of a list of desired improvements than a true path towards mitigating future civilian casualties in U.S. and partnered military operations. 

Whenever the DoD’s Instruction on Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response does emerge later this year, it must come with better procedures regarding the investigation into possible incidents of civilian harm or violations of international humanitarian law in armed conflict, with a special emphasis on the frameworks required to address questions of independence and impartiality regarding the military and civilian individuals tasked with looking into such alleged incidents. Moreover, in its quest to more adequately address future incidents of alleged civilian harm, the Defense Department must not forget to address prior cases where the DoD has received credible reports of civilian casualties—an issue that Senator Elizabeth Warren and Congresswoman Sara Jacobs recently highlighted in a December 19, 2022 letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Audstin—making more frequent use of the $3 million that Congress has set aside for ex gratia payments to redress victims of injury and loss under the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. 

As Army Techniques Publication 3-7.06, Protection of Civilians, notes, “protection of civilians is important for moral, political, legal, and military reasons and must be addressed during unified land operations regardless of the primary mission.” Therefore, if the Department does not do more to address these issues, there is not only a risk that it will foster a culture of impunity amongst troops in the field and those making targeting decisions at headquarters, but it could pose real strategic concerns for future counter-insurgency operations, especially as, “studies show that counter-insurgencies fail when an insurgency has sustainable internal and external support, or a host nation government loses legitimacy,” and that, “civilian harm tends to accelerate both problems—it is like burning a candle at both ends with a blowtorch.” 

In light of these facts, it is important to take a look at some of the key issues related to investigations into civilian harm in armed conflict as well as the challenges related to making amends and providing reparations to those harmed by U.S. and/or partnered military operations, even—and perhaps especially—as the U.S. continues to develop an over-the-horizon counterterrorism capability that sees an increase in strikes conducted by unmanned American vehicles. 

Helpfully, the Center for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC) recently published a primer on “Investigations into Civilian Harm in Armed Conflict,” prepared by Claire Simmons as part of a partnership between CIVIC and the Essex University Crisis and Conflict Hub, which aims to identify challenges related to investigations into possible incidents of civilian harm and provides key recommendation for U.S. decision makers in ensuring that effective investigations into those incidents are subsequently carried out.

As Simmons points out, in addition to often being politically and strategically necessary, “States have an international legal obligation to conduct investigations into severe violations of international humanitarian law (IHL) and international human rights law,” and if they do not, other States may prosecute members of their armed forces under universal jurisdiction or from some kind of international criminal tribunal like the International Court of Justice. Moreover, Simmons notes, States also have, “an established obligation to conduct some form of effective investigation into other possible violations of international humanitarian law, including those that may have caused civilian harm.” 

However, in conducting these investigations, nations often run into a number of difficulties which impede their overall effectiveness and which often leave victims and their next-of-kin wondering if they’ve simply been even further mistreated. More specifically, though, Simmons’ recent CIVIC paper outlines five key issues that States often face when conducting investigations into alleged incidents of civilian harm, beginning with the credibility of the allegations being made against the armed force involved. Here, she notes that the credibility of an allegation will always depend on the specific context involved. However, she also points out that the person alleging the harm happened, the level of detail they provide in making that claim, and the corroboration provided by other sources will ultimately determine whether an alleged incident of civilian harm is deemed credible by decision makers. 

However, despite Simmons’ admonition that, “States must not rely only on their own information to assess [an] allegations’ credibility,” especially as, “mistakes or inconsistencies in recording operational data may occur, and civilians may bring to the attention of militaries information about operations that they may be unaware of,” it appears that, all too often, that is exactly what happens, as, according to one recent RAND Corporation study looking at U.S. military operations from 2015-2017, “U.S. military officials did not sufficiently engage external sources for information before concluding that reports of civilian casualties were not credible,” instead relying on, “its own internal data and records [which] are sometimes incomplete.” As a result of this failure to give sufficient weight to external reporting mechanisms, Human Rights Watch wrote in 2017 that, “the U.S. government’s investigations regularly exclude one of the most important sources of evidence [in witness interviews], and are at odds with international fact-finding vest practice, developed over the past decades by researchers and investigators with human rights NGOs, the United Nations, and international criminal tribunals.”

Another issue that Simmons posits is standing in the way of effective investigations into alleged civilian harm incidents arises when alleged civilian harm incidents occur in difficult-to-reach locales such as when the U.S. conducts its “over-the-horizon” drone strikes in Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, and elsewhere. With U.S. forces gathering their intelligence and manning drones hundreds or thousands of miles away from their intended target, “investigations into remote strikes with no personnel on the ground may consist primarily of reviewing pre- and post-strike footage (video or satellite imagery) and reviewing the decision-making process, such as the quality and sources of intelligence used and the analysis of this information.” In the case of these so-called “over-the-horizon” strikes, investigators are often unable to access the strike location and interview possible civilian witnesses on the ground who may corroborate possible civilian harm incidents. While non-governmental or civil society organizations and the media may conduct their own investigations, as seen above, the United States is often unwilling to accept or incorporate external sources of information regarding alleged incidents. 

Yet another issue posed by Simmons’ piece for CIVIC—and which will be addressed in more detail in a section below—is that military investigations are often seen as insufficiently independent and impartial by victims and their fellow citizens, hindering the investigation’s overall strategic and political value. To overcome these issues, Simmons’ piece suggests that: commanders have a role in ensuring that adequate safeguards are set up to ensure there is no conflict of interest between investigators and those being investigated; that the complexity of an alleged incident may warrant outside expertise being brought in—for instance in evaluating what effects secondary explosions from U.S. strikes may have had on an alleged victim—to aid the investigation; that independent oversight—whether through appeals mechanisms, systems of inquiry, review procedures, legislative oversight or ombuds institutions—methods be established to ensure the accountability of investigators; and that there are simply certain situations where the use of military investigators may affect the overall perception of justice on the part of the victim and their fellow citizens. 

The fourth challenge confronting the effective investigation of alleged incidents of civilian harm is that often today, the U.S. is not the only military force operating in an area, as the days of partnered and Coalition operations are only increasing. As Brookings Fellow and former Air Force officer Sara Kreps told the audience during an April 21, 2022 webinar on Protecting Civilians in Partnered Military Operations for the Brookings Institution, “since the end of the Cold War the United States is not fighting wars on its own. It’s always fighting with local partners, it’s fighting as part of a multilateral operation.” Moreover, in these multinational operations, it is often a challenge not only for victims to decipher which nation it was that actually caused them harm as well as the fact that different States often have different procedures and rules regarding investigations into possible violations as well as amends and reparations processes. As such, Simmons notes, these difficulties may create, “an apparent ‘cloak against accountability’ in which political and military stakeholders feel they have fewer incentives to hold their forces accountable for their actions.” 

In investigating and determining the ultimate responsibility for alleged incidents of civilian harm, Simmons argues, States engaging in coalition operations should look to agree on common investigative procedures through their various memoranda of understandings and status of forces agreements with partner countries. Such standardized procedures should support common documentation and reporting requirements as well as common thresholds to trigger an investigative process in the first place. 

One final barrier to effective investigations of civilian harm incidents in conflict zones that the CIVIC report lists is that States often do not provide enough transparency regarding the details of their investigations, resulting in an opaque process that reduces the legitimacy of investigation reports and undermines the credibility of U.S. military forces in the eyes of victims and their fellow citizens. While Simmons acknowledges that the exact degree of transparency required in an investigation will vary based on the particular context involved in the alleged violation, she does remark that, “the principle of transparency must…serve the overall effectiveness of the investigation and must, among other things, clarify the facts and judicial truths of a situation.” Despite this principle, States often impose blanket restrictions on information regarding investigation on the grounds of national security considerations, as, they insist, that transparency is not an absolute requirement and that it must be balanced with other competing interests. 

Achieving Transparency, Impartiality, and Justice in Investigations in Armed Conflict

Fundamentally, then, the main tension when it comes to the effective investigation of alleged incidents of civilian harm caused during military operations is between what the military and civilians on the ground see as a “reasonable” investigation into the incident. As Claire Simmons also writes in her paper for the International Review of the Red Cross, “Whose perception of justice?: Real and perceived challenges to military investigations in armed conflict,” any, “investigations into serious violations of IHL must be effective, and the adequacy of the reasonable measures put into an investigation must be assessed in light of this effectiveness.” However, she also notes that, “one of the biggest causes of contention regarding the effectiveness of any military investigation into possible violations of international law is the matter of independence and impartiality,” as, “it is often perceived that if military personnel investigate a member of the armed forces for alleged (criminal) offenses, this is nothing more than ‘the military investigating itself’, and an expectation exists that a finding of wrongdoing would have no credibility.” 

Whether it is in Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, or Yemen, U.S. airstrikes have resulted in the deaths of countless thousands of innocent civilians; and while the Department of Defense will likely tell you that almost every single case of civilians being killed was a mistake, the point remains that not only has the armed forces of the United States slaughtered far too many innocent non-combatants. Ultimately, the crushing volume of civilian deaths in U.S.-led operations, and the military’s stubborn refusal to thoroughly investigate alleged incidents before denying their validity—as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said in the aftermath of the U.S. strike in Kabul that, “the procedures were correctly followed and it was a righteous strike,”—demonstrates why the U.S. military is often not seen as a credible actor in the eyes of victims and their fellow citizens. 

Brown University Cost of War Project Casualties in Major War Zones Oct 2001-Sept 2021/Source: https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Costs%20of%20War_Direct%20War%20Deaths_9.1.21.pdf

Essentially, when combining the U.S. military’s reflexive denial of culpability for civilian harm with the concern that civilians may have with military officials investigating the alleged harm caused by their own fellow servicemembers, it can lead to a situation where civilians lose whatever small degree of trust that they have towards the armed forces, undermining the objective to help partner governments win the “hearts and minds” of civilians in counterinsurgency operations, and ultimately hindering the cooperation between the public and the military that is so often needed in even the modern war environment

As Daniel Mahanty and Sahr Muhammedally wrote in their paper, “The Human Factor: The Enduring Relevance of Protecting Civilians in Future Wars,” not only does protecting civilians from harm in U.S. military operations help, “to fulfill the government’s public responsibility to protect the moral welfare of those who do the fighting,” the country, “learned through its experience in Vietnam that the use of unbridled violence in pursuit of war aims could be as much of a liability as an asset, not only with respect to the limited aims of winning the war, but in preserving the moral welfare of the country itself.” 

In examining investigations into civilian harm, it is important to, as Simmons states, look at the, “particular tensions [which] arise with the perception of justice in the context of military judicial procedures, especially surrounding questions such as whether independence is possibly within a chain of command, or how military culture might affect impartiality.” Moreover, “in addition to these challenges, the nature of an armed conflict itself can often lead to aggravated distrust of State institutions, leading to particular difficulties in establishing a perception of justice,” in the country experiencing military operations. 

In light of these facts, it is perhaps best to examine Simmons’ recommendations for achieving the perception of justice in military investigations in armed conflict through the lens of the ongoing U.S. air war in Somalia, a conflict that has recently seen U.S. troops return to ground operations, which has already resulted in the killing of one high-ranking ISIS figure in recent days. As Amanda Sperber’s report for the Dutch peace organization PAX, “Is it too much to kill three or four Al Shabaab: Civilian perceptions on Al Shabaab and harm from US airstrikes in Jubbaland, Somalia,” submits, “the impact of [U.S.] airstrikes clearly takes a broad toll on communities across Jubbaland, affecting more than the intended targets alone and frequently resulting in long-term negative effects.” 

The number of US airstrikes per year, as declared by AFRICOM/Source: https://protectionofcivilians.org/wp-content/uploads/reports/2212-CH-Somalia_web_Single_Page-3.pdf#page=21

Despite this being the case, the United States, “has fallen short in providing meaningful response. In situations where [US Africa Command-AFRICOM] has acknowledged civilian harm, it has not communicated this to the victims or relatives thereof, who often had to learn of this through AFRICOM’s civilian casualty assessment reports…Nor have ‘credible’ assessments ever resulted in ex gratia payments to the affected civilians or their families.” As the U.S. is currently operating in Somalia in an attempt to shore up the administration of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and to, “enable a more effective fight against al Shabaab,” in a seeming continuation of former President Trump’s own approach to the country. 

As the PAX report points out, under the Trump administration, one, “former Somali official described the situation as the US having been given a ‘blank check’ regarding airstrikes,” despite the fact that, “as the number of airstrikes increased, so did allegations of civilian casualties and reports of displacement and other civilian harm effects caused by US operations.” Despite these reports, however, there are credible allegations that U.S. processes for investigating incidents of civilian harm in Somalia do not satisfy the requirements for independence, impartiality, and effectiveness required to achieve justice for victims and their families. 

In examining the issues with the U.S. response to alleged cases of civilian harm caused by U.S. forces in Somalia, the PAX report first describes the process of investigation on AFRICOM’s end. At first, the combatant command conducts an assessment to verify whether the date and location of an incident corresponds to instances of U.S. action in the area. If this is determined to be the case, the command then completes a Civilian Casualty Assessment Report which, “contains information about the incident, as well as documentation supporting its conclusions, such as full motion video.” The combatant command then comes to a conclusion, based on its own internal review, of whether an allegation is “credible”—meaning more likely than not that civilian deaths or injuries were caused as a result of U.S. military action—and publishes its determination on its website. 

However, as the PAX report notes, “researchers and civil society organizations have, over the years, identified several flaws and limitations in this system, not only in relation to AFRICOM but also with regards to US military practice overall.” The report notes that—as a recent RAND Corporation report has also concluded—human remains buried in the rubble of a building struck by an airstrike would likely remain undetected from overhead video surveillance. Moreover, AFRICOM’s assessment procedure does not require its personnel to consult with non-military sources during their investigation, meaning key data points may be overlooked. The report also points out the fact that civil society activists have expressed frustration over the poor state of direct communications channels between AFRICOM and civil society organizations on the ground, with existing channels suffering from the key flaw that the main way to submit allegations of civilian harm caused by U.S. operations is through a web portal in a country with a a total Internet penetration rate of just 13.7%. Finally, Sperber notes that, “PAX research on this topic indicated that several Somalis who managed to use the system had not heard back from AFRICOM, receiving neither answers, acknowledgement, nor reparations.” 

Therefore, it can be said that AFRICOM’s investigatory processes in Somalia run into the second, third, and fifth issues covered in the CIVIC investigation’s report. Moreover, AFRICOM struggles with what Simmons calls the five general principles that are recognized as contributing towards the effectiveness of investigations: independence, impartiality, thoroughness, promptness and transparency. What’s more, even if AFRICOM were to improve its civilian harm reporting mechanisms through implementation of a standalone, Somali-language civilian harm website; a dedicated telephone line for reporting allegations of civilian harm caused by U.S. military actions; physical office space—not only in Mogadishu but in areas around the country accessible to ordinary Somalis—where citizens can report incidents of civilian harm; or by enabling reports through trusted intermediaries like certain humanitarian organizations or Somali government representatives; decision makers would still likely be confronted with the perception that in its own investigations, AFRICOM is merely the fox guarding the henhouse, undermining Somalis overall perception of whether justice has been done. 

Impartiality and Independence in Internal Military Investigations

As Simmons points out in Whose perception of justice, there are two main elements most relevant to concerns of impartiality and independence in military investigations into alleged incidents of civilian harm: the military hierarchy and the overall culture of the military. When it comes to military hierarchy, Simmons argues that while, “an impartial investigator is expected to be able to make decisions related to the investigation (for example, in the collection of evidence) based solely upon the relevant facts of the case and the law or regulations applicable to the investigation procedures,” that, “disciplinary or administrative powers,” including the power to promote or demote another member of the military, “may lead them to consciously or unconsciously take into account whether their superior will approve or disapprove of the investigative decisions being made.” This can result in a situation where it is difficult for a junior officer to make a determination of U.S.-caused civilian harm if that officer feels that her superiors have an active interest in the determination that any civilian harm—if it was caused by an outside force—did not come from U.S. forces. 

Yet another area where issues of impartiality and independence exist is in the overall cultures of military forces, where, as Mark Bowden once chronicled, soldiers in the head of battle think thoughts like, “all that did matter were his buddies, his brothers, that they not get hurt, that they not get killed. These men around him, some of whom he had only known for mothers, were more important to him than life itself.” As Simmons writes, “in a similar fashion to investigations into police misconduct, there is an assumption that there are factors within military life and military culture which will affect the impartiality of investigators, regardless of any structural guarantees of independence that may be in place.” 

(More to come on issues of independence and impartiality next week along with a section touching on amends and reparations for harm caused by U.S. forces/strikes)

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Leaving Conflict Behind: The Post-War Political Transformation of Myanmar’s Ethnic Resistance Organizations and Overcoming the Unique Challenges Facing Myanmar’s Women

January 20, 2023

Back on January 11th, the Berghof Foundation published a new report in conjunction with the United Nations Department of Peace Operations, “Leaving Conflict Firmly Behind Through the Political Transformation of Armed Groups: Notes for DDR and Peacebuilding Practitioners,” by Johanna-Maria Hülzer and Véronique Dudouet of the Berghof Foundation, with the support of Sergiusz Sidorowicz and Thomas Kontogeorgos of the United Nations Department of Peace Operations’ Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) section. The report attempts to compile the lessons learned by the UN as well as other international practitioners on the interlinkages between DDR and political transformation in Mali, Colombia, Mindanao/Philippines, and Northern Ireland in order to help ensure the success of future peace processes elsewhere. 

While the report is fascinating enough on its own, when it is coupled with another report the Berghof Foundation released in December 2022, “Observe and Act: The Role of Armed and Political Movements in the Implementation of the Women, Peace and Security Agenda in Myanmar,” by lead author Zin Mar Phyo, along with Véronique Dudouet, Ann-Kristin Sjöberg, Tilman Papesch, Katharina Schmitz, Nicolas Sion, Maw Day Myar, and Thinzar Linn Htet, the two pieces combine to shed a unique light on the opportunities and challenges regarding the post-war reintegration of ex-combatants and the steps needed to transform Myanmar into a nation where both male and female citizens have equal rights and and a voice in determining the country’s future. 

As was noted by Hülzer and Dudouet in their report, one thing that is often overlooked in post-conflict environments are the trajectories that former non-state armed groups take as their members attempt to navigate the tricky path from resistance organization to political party leading their state or the country. In Myanmar, if and when the country’s various Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs) are able to vanquish the junta on the battlefield, the country will still face numerous issues as those EROs attempt to transition from working as informal governance providers to becoming the body with final responsibility for the protection and well-being of citizens in their future federal state. 

Furthermore, as the United Nations Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration Resource’s Centre’s Integrated DDR Standards states, “DDR is not only a technical endeavour – many aspects of the DDR process will influence, and be influenced by, political dynamics. For example, armed groups may refuse to disarm and demobilize until they are sure that their political demands will be met.” What’s more, while “integrated DDR processes can facilitate engagement with armed groups,” they, “will have limited impact unless parallel efforts are undertaken to address the reasons why these groups felt it necessary to mobilize in the first place, their current and prospective security concerns, and their expectations for the future.” 

According to the report from Hülzer and Dudouet, for a DDR process to lead to a successful political transformation in the post-conflict environment, the process must involve providing ex-combatants with avenues to exert their political agency, as, “according to the rules of the democratic game, prospective political actors are required to give up their arms in order to credibly participate in civilian politics.” As such, DDR and political transformation are, according to the Berghof authors, “concomitant and mutually beneficial processes.” Furthermore, while only a few members of these non-state armed groups (NSAGs) eventually go on to become political leaders, many of the rank-and-file members of these organizations still aspire to preserve their own sense of political agency and to become citizens that fully participate in their society, whether through party politics or civil society organizations that allow former insurgents to become advocates for the social movements that they feel strongest about. 

However, the transition from being a member of a group fighting the government on the battlefield to becoming a citizen playing a more active role in that government can be difficult for ex-combatants to accomplish, and in particular, demobilizing and reintegrating former resistance fighters into the political structure of the nation often requires outside support from partners, aid providers, and international organizations such as the United Nations. That is not to mention the extraordinary difficulties that will come with attempting to reintegrate ex-Sit Tat members—a topic beyond the scope of this paper—into a future federal Myanmar where power is more diffused to the country’s ethnic minority-dominated states

In attempting to elucidate these challenges and the avenues to overcome them, Hülzer and Dudouet’s report examines the political transformations in Northern Ireland, Mindanao/Philippines, Colombia, and Mali in order to determine the impact that DDR programs have had on the eventual political transformation of those countries and the various pathways that former NSAGs can take in their quest to go from winning on the battlefield to winning at the ballot box. 

In Northern Ireland, for example, the authors note how the 1998 Good Friday Agreement created a political architecture which enabled a more-level playing field for contesting political power in Northern Ireland. Moreover they remark on the fact that the self-led demobilization of the Irish Republican Army was achieved due to the unity of the Republican movement in insisting on making progress on the withdrawal of British troops, the reform of the police and justice systems in Northern Ireland, and the establishment of island-wide political institutions before they willingly gave up their weapons. In Northern Ireland’s transition from armed to non-armed politics, Hülzer and Dudouet argue that the internal group cohesion required to survive the political transformation process was made possible due to Republican leaderships’ commitment to ensuring the buy-in of its rank-and-file members. In addition, in garnering external support for the peace process, outside support from the Irish-American diaspora and several other NSAGs that had already gone through the process was sought and received by IRA and Sinn Féin leaders, providing both international support for the process as well as outside expertise for Irish Republicans. 

Finally, the Berghof Foundation authors also note that political success was not necessarily immediate for the Republicans—as their party members had to take time to become more skilled in building their experience and the confidence of voters—with their vote reaching 20% of the electorate in 2001 before finally capturing 29% of the votes and a place of prominence as the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2022. 

In the Philippines, where a comprehensive peace agreement was finally signed between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front on the southern Philippines island of Mindanao and the Republic in 2014 after nearly forty years of conflict over independence for Muslim majority Moro areas in the south, disarmament and the political transition were conducted concomitantly, with MILF members being permitted to participate in the political process while not having fully relinquished their weapons. However, despite being allowed to participate in the political process before fully disarming, candidates of the MILF-founded United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) have failed to achieve the kind of electoral success its leaders likely envisioned as part of the peace agreement, and shows that many locals in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) still have a sense of being “left behind” by the MILF-led interim government. 

Together, these facts demonstrate that not only do transitions often take longer than one or two electoral cycle for former rebel groups to see political dividends, but that by structuring the peace agreement as one in which both parties have to fulfill their sides of the bargain before moving on to the next stage of the process, it means that when one side does not make good on its promises, the whole process can turn bumpy and requires the central government to remain politically committed to the process over a long period of time. 

In Colombia—where the 2016 Havana Peace Agreement finally brought an end to a conflict between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP) that began in 1964—while there is, as Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Colombia and Head of the United Nations Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu said back in April 2022, “no question that the successful laydown of thousands of arms of the former FARC-EP…significantly reduced nation-wide levels of conflict-related violence,” violence still lingers as progress on completing all aspects of the peace agreement are still incomplete

Like the MILF in Mindanao, former FARC-EP members have had difficulties in achieving political success through the creation of the Comunes party, which has resulted in internal power struggles between leaders of the party. However, overall, the peace process and the success that the country has seen in demobilizing 13,000 former FARC-EP fighters demonstrates that with international support at the right moments and by structuring the peace process as a step-by-step process that builds trust and guarantees that neither side must give up its leverage too early on in the process, success is possible. However, Bogotá must continue to provide security, land reform, and economic opportunities to demobilized fighters or else the country risks backsliding into violence if FARC splinter groups and the government are unable to come to a lasting ceasefire agreement. 

Finally, in Mali, where the 2015 Algiers Peace Agreement was signed between the government and two major coalitions of armed groups—the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), comprising armed opposition groups from Northern Mali, and the Platform of Movements (the Platform)—the process towards disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration has been slow and tensions between Tuareg rebel groups in the north and Bamako have risen to their highest level in many years as a coalition of armed groups called the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD) say that it has pulled out of the Algiers Agreement due to a lack of political will on the part of the junta to implement the accord’s provisions. As Hülzer and Dudouet write, “the Malian central government and the international community focus most of their attention on the security pillar and neglect progress on institutional and political reform, while the signatory movements are waiting for progress on the latter as a condition for their full demobilisation. At the same time, violent jihadist groups pose a constant security threat to local communities from which the signatory movements derive their legitimacy. This creates bottom-up pressure for the movements to stay armed in order to protect their communities in the absence of reformed state security forces,” and threatens the viability of the overall peace process. 

Through examining these four prior peace processes, Hülzer and Dudouet uncover a number of key ingredients for the success of DDR processes and political transformations around the world. They note that groups that successfully complete their transition from success on the battlefield to success at the ballot box possess strong internal cohesion, with leaders of demobilizing groups required to balance the demands of group elites with those of rank-and-file members who may not feel that any “peace dividend” from disarmament and demobilization has quite reached them yet. To bolster the unity among these movements and their rank-and-file, the authors suggest providing demobilizing groups with access to experts from other groups that have successfully made the transition from rebel group to political party. In addition, they suggest that international partners to and guarantors of the peace process can provide technical and financial support to both mid-level and rank-and-file ex-combatants as they attempt to navigate the complexities of their new democratic political system, not simply the high-level leadership of former non-state armed groups. 

Secondly, the authors argue that sustainable peace agreements require a well-planned and inclusive peacebuilding process which includes security guarantees for ex-combatants, socio-economic support to enable their reintegration into society, and provisions to aid rebel groups in their transition into political parties that truly have the knowledge and capacity to competently govern the areas under their control. 

In peace agreements without provisions for the transformation of NSAGs into political parties—such as in Mali’s Algiers Agreement—it can make the political transformation of those rebel groups harder, impeding progress towards peace. By contrast, in places where the transformation of the rebel group into a political party is a central element of the peace agreement—such as in the 2016 Havana Peace Agreement in Colombia with the FARC-EP—the process has yielded better progress, though there are still issues that remain. The authors also submit that peace agreements need to contain within themselves a broader transformations of the political system—including structural changes to the political system and accountability mechanisms for office-holders—as well as inter-party bodies for verification and monitoring of implementation in order to build trust between parties and to enable reciprocal steps between the government and former NSAGs towards DDR and political transformation. 

However, as part of this effort to better structure an inclusive peace process, Hülzer and Dudouet assert that such processes must be contextually-specific and tailored to the particularities of the sides involved. For instance, they state that the seriousness of NSAG’s political agendas must be considered during peace negotiations as part of the process of informing the design of DDR and political transition processes in order to enhance the processes’ chances for success. Such a contextual analysis of the parties’ commitment to peace can help determine whether interlocutors should focus on individual pathways to peaceful politics or more collective ones for ex-combatants and their former resistance and liberation movements. Moreover, a close contextual analysis needs to inform the timing and sequencing of the subsequent accord, as allowing NSAG figures to circumvent steps towards disarmament and demobilization while simultaneously permitting them to enter the political arena without restrictions can hinder progress on implementation of the peace agreement’s provisions and result in a breakdown of trust between the various sides.

A third ingredient for a successful political transition that was identified by the Berghof Foundation authors is trust-building and transitional justice processes. In Colombia, the authors note how ex-FARC guerillas were still forced to face prosecution for crimes committed during the insurgency even while they were running for office, which damaged the groups members’ electoral chances and hindered trust-building between the ex-rebels and the Colombian people. Nevertheless, transitional justice processes need to be structured so that they provide the opportunity to bring to light patterns of state-led injustice that often lay at the roots of NSAGs formations. To support this ingredient of successful political transformations in future peace processes, the authors propose that any external mediators, guarantors, and technical advisors that participate in the process need to help structure peace agreements so that those who have committed crimes during the insurgency are brought to justice even if it temporarily hinders the NSAGs chances at the polls in the short-term. 

A fourth ingredient offered by the authors is that state actors must be ready and able to uphold their own sides of the bargain in peace agreements. Part of this may include a reform of a state’s security apparatus in order to reestablish trust between the sector, the population, and former combatants. As mentioned above, the violence in Colombia—which has seen nearly 300 ex-combatants killed since the 2016 peace agreement was signed—demonstrates the fact that the central government must maintain a robust commitment to the security of ex-combatants during periods of political transformation, lest they risk the agreement they signed with rebel groups coming apart. To better balance the scales between an often more-powerful government and a less-powerful demobilizing non-state armed group, the authors argue that international partners to the peace process must provide financial aid and technical assistance to NSAGs as they navigate the often tricky process of demobilization and political transformation. Specifically, they submit that actors such as UN missions as well as states guaranteeing the peace process should both support the monitoring of peace agreements to ensure the security of ex-combatants during their disarmament and demobilization as well as to hold the implementing state to its commitments in operationalizing the specific elements of the peace deal that they have committed to. 

A fifth ingredient—and one that will be discussed in greater detail in the section below—is gender sensitivity and ensuring the inclusion of women in the design and implementation of peace agreements as well as the subsequent DDR process. Too often, women are pushed aside and marginalized by their male counterparts in peace negotiations, with the result that they subsequently lack access to the educational and economic reintegration packages offered to male ex-combatants, exacerbating the burdens of family and child-care that disproportionately fall on women in conflict-affected areas. 

The authors state that, “transition support schemes such as DDR programmes need to enable women to build upon the specific social capital and agency they may have gained during their time with the armed groups in order to prevent them from falling back into a hostile pre-mobilisation social environment or slipping into poverty and social exclusion.” If such structures are not put in place, other studies show that women combatants in post-conflict settings often go through a “continuum of gender inequalities” during the peacebuilding and DDR processes. To combat these inequalities, the Berghof Foundation authors argue that external actors need to promote the inclusion of women at all stages of the peace process, as negotiators, peacebuilders, and political leaders, as called for in the UN DDR Centre’s Integrated DDR Standards 5.10 on Women, Gender and DDR. Furthermore, as opposed to merely offering women a path back to the now-unsatisfactory status quo ante, Hülzer and Dudouet say that a gender-responsive DDR scheme requires an analysis of the roles that women played in their NSAG, their social and educational background, and both their individual and collective aspirations for the future in order to help build a better tomorrow for women in post-conflict settings. 

The final element offered by the authors for a group’s successful transition from NSAG to political entity is the creation of a sustainable implementation process where both sides are able and willing to meet the milestones outlined in any peace agreement. However, peace agreements often usher in new political landscapes in countries where widespread political participation often was not possible in the pre-conflict period. As such, any post-conflict DDR process must also come with provisions for a robust civic education for ex-combatants as they learn the intricacies of their new political environment and how they might best participate in it—whether through civil society organizations or direct political party participation. What’s more, ex-combatants need to be prepared for the fact that they and their political party may encounter setbacks in their journeys towards obtaining real electoral success. To aid them, the authors propose that outside guarantors and partners need to not only provide training on the new political system being birthed in the country, but psychosocial support in order to make the mental transition from fighting the state to becoming an active participant in it easier. 

The authors then conclude their report with four key recommendations for DDR and peacebuilding practitioners to pursue as they navigate the intricacies of both new and existing peace processes around the world. First, Hülzer and Dudouet state that peace support actors need to explore options that help facilitate the political participation of ex-combatants in all peace processes. 

Second, they argue that future peace agreements need to be structured with the understanding that parties need to build trust both internally with their own hardline members, between the NSAG and the state, and between the NSAG and the overall population, ensuring that the timing, sequencing, and terminology surrounding the DDR and political transition process are structured as such that they take into account the particular needs and sensitivities of the various factions involved. 

Third, they propose that political transformation and civic education need to be embedded as standard components of DDR programs in order to help ex-combatants understand both their political rights and their responsibilities as citizens, enabling them to better understand how they fit into the new political landscape and to eventually effectuate the changes in society that they want to see occur. 

Finally, the authors argue that as the process of transforming a non-state armed group into a political party is often a long-term one, external partners to the peace process not only need to provide long-term support, coaching, technical expertise, and funding for demobilizing NSAGs, but that special attention should be paid to the specific difficulties that women face in sustaining social and political engagement during this process that are not faced by their male counterparts.

Applying the Ingredients for a Successful Political Transformation to Myanmar’s Ethnic Resistance Organizations

In looking at the situation in Myanmar, where junta security forces have arrested more than 16,000 pro-democracy activists and killed at least 2,300 and where fighting has displaced over 1 million people internally as the civil war looks to be locked in somewhat of a stalemate, it may seem a bit presumptuous to be looking at how the country’s ethnic resistance organizations can complete a successful post-conflict political transformation. However, there are some signs that the Sit-Tat may be losing ground, which means that the National Unity Government’s democratic international partners need to start thinking about how to help the country’s EROs navigate their paths towards a prosperous and peaceful post-junta future for the country. 

The first lesson that Myanmar’s international partners should internalize and start acting on immediately is to provide both technical and financial support to any ERO that is looking to bolster its ability to communicate to its rank-and-file members what the group’s leadership sees as the group’s ultimate political goals. For Myanmar’s various EROs, that would likely mean providing rank-and-file group members with a better understanding of what each ethnic group will be negotiating for in a future federal structure for the country and what specific kinds of devolved powers the various ethnically-dominated federal states will have. 

As groups like the Karen National Union (KNU) have, “always been a highly heterogeneous movement, comprised as it is of members from divers political, religious, geographic, economic, and educational backgrounds,” it may be difficult to ensure internal cohesion, and as such, ERO leadership will need to ensure it has adequately explained its positions before entering into any peace process with other ethnic groups, lest they risk losing the buy-in of their rank-and-file members. Such a process will likely require outside support from Myanmar’s democratic partners to help support civic education and training on democratic governance for ERO ex-combatants. 

Another lesson for Myanmar’s future peace process from the Berghof Foundation report is that any future comprehensive peace agreement in the country will need to be careful to ensure that disarmament and demobilization processes contain provisions for how EROs can manage the delicate transition from NSAG to security provider in their state. While most of Myanmar’s twenty or so ethnic armed groups do have some experience in administering the territories under their control, and will likely need less rebel-to-party transformation assistance than groups with no prior administrative proficiency, any future political transition in the country will likely require those EROs to provide a good degree of socio-economic support for the civilian reintegration of their actual members who have never been able to truly participate in a national political process before. 

Moreover, members of the military—which is largely Bamar-dominated—will need to be provided with their own path towards political self-actualization and guidance on how to achieve it in a future Myanmar where the military is no longer the best source of real political power and the power of the Bamar majority is checked by guarantees on political representation for the country’s ethnic minorities. 

A future peace agreement in Myanmar will also require a good degree of trust-building between former ERO members, former Sit-Tat members, and the rest of society. In Myanmar—in particular after decades of military rule that saw rampant abuse of the civilian population by the Myanmar military along with a genocide of Rohingya Muslims in the northern part of the country—trust building will not be easy between ethnic groups and the largely-Bamar Sit-Tat members. As such, any future peace agreement will require the participation of victims of state oppression in the design of DDR programming as it will be extremely hard to build trust between the civilian populace and former members of the military after so many decades of military abuses

Such a process will require Myanmar’s external partners to make sure that the peace agreement contains clear and sequential steps that all sides must take in order to advance towards the next stage in the process. For instance, in any future peace deal, Aung San Suu Kyi’s Bamar-dominated National League for Democracy—which, in the past has used its majority in parliament to block proposals by other ethnicities members of parliaments such as those by Rakhine State MPs regarding the plight of internally-displaced peoples there—will need to codify its commitments to ensure some kind of equal voice for smaller ethnic minorities—including minorities-within-minorities—in the country before those EROs should agree to give up their weapons. Likely, such an accommodation will involve an agreement to permit some kind of equal representation for ethnic minority states in the future constitution in exchange for those groups’ efforts towards disarmament and demobilization. 

Next, the design of any future peace process or DDR program will have to ensure that the security sector is reformed in such a way that it reflects the ethnic, religious, and regional makeup of the country not just in the rank-and-file soldier, but in command structures as well as civilian oversight positions which have authority over the military. Especially as Myanmar’s population has gone through such a traumatic history with its security and defense sectors, such reforms will have an extremely important place in the design and structure of any future peace in Myanmar. However, when reconstituting the Tatmadaw, it will also be important that the future military command structures also reflect the country’s diverse make-up, ensuring that leadership positions are staffed with individuals that reflect Myanmar’s rich ethnic diversity

Hülzer and Dudouet’s report also argues that in order for NSAGs to successfully transition into political parties, the DDR process must be designed in a way that understands the fact that  demobilization and reintegration is a long-term process, which requires empowering former combatants to both understand and embrace their political rights as citizens and to gradually build their own political power over time. In Myanmar, part of this will involve not only providing ex-fighters with cash, food aid, and other basic personal items to ensure that their vital needs are met, but with the civic education that they need to navigate the new, federal political system that is likely to emerge following a defeat of the junta. However, all of that political education and training will be worthless if it is not accompanied by a good degree of psychosocial support to help prepare ex-fighters for the frequently difficult transition from combatant to citizen 

However, whether it is providing civic education or psychosocial support to Myanmar’s ex-combatants, the country’s partners need to realize that it will likely be a long-term process, with several electoral cycles required to be completed before former EROs will feel comfortable on their path towards becoming the country’s governing political parties. 

However, the one group in Myanmar that may experience the highest degree of difficulty in their transition back to civilian life is women, who are said to comprise 70-80% of the leadership of Myanmar’s Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) and who have also, in increasing numbers, directly taken up arms against the forces of the junta. Too often, even DDR programs that do include non-combatant women fail to take into account the particular needs of women as they are reintegrating into their communities. Frequently, women and girls are left out of DDR programs designed for men and often denied access to the same economic and educational packages made available to their male counterparts. For instance, Megan MacKenzie in a 2009 piece for Security Studies wrote that:

“The manner in which male and female soldiers have been categorized post-conflict has had several interrelated impacts: first, stripping women and girls of their titles as soldiers by distinguishing them from true or real combatants depoliticized their roles during the conflict; second, as development grows evermore concerned with people and issues identified as security concerns, depoliticizing the role of women and girls during the conflict meant that they were not targeted as primary beneficiaries for the DDR program and other reintegration initiatives; third, politicizing and securitizing the DDR process for male soldiers and deprioritizing and depoliticizing women has meant that the reintegration process for women has largely been seen as a social process, a returning to normal that would happen naturally.”

Especially in Myanmar—where women have historically had little political influence and even under the administration of Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD had struggled to gain real political power—it will be important during the post-conflict transition to empower female ex-combatants so that they are not forced to return to the home where they are often overwhelmed by household responsibilities, hindering their ability to attend training programs that their unencumbered male counterparts are able to attend more easily. In light of that fact, any successful DDR program that aims to empower women’s participation in the political transformation of the country’s various EROs will need to engage female ex-combatants from the very start, allowing them to make their voices heard in the public sphere so that they are able to carve out a role in political policy formulation from the outset of peace negotiations to the formulation of the country’s new constitution. 

Moreover, as the October 9, 2019 report of the UN Secretary-General to the Security Council states, “in 2015, the United Nations heard from women across diverse conflict settings, who made it clear that initiatives aimed at economic recovery, for women, are overwhelmingly limited to microcredit or micro-enterprises, while large-scale reconstruction is dominated by and overwhelmingly benefits men.” In light of that, “prioritizing women’s economic empowerment and building their capacities for a future-oriented economy, rather than a return to the skills of a pre-conflict economy, was a key recommendation of the Global Study.” Any program that simply aims to return Myanmar’s women to the status quo ante will not only ignore the advancements that women have made through their contributions to the resistance, but will likely confine them to a continued lack of economic and political agency in whatever kind of new Myanmar emerges out of the civil war period. 

Women’s Participation in Myanmar’s Ethnic Armed Organizations and Their Prospects for Post-Conflict Political Participation and Reintegration

In her opening keynote address to the NGO Forum on Women in Beijing China in August of 1995, Aung San Suu Kyi said that:

“In my country at present, women have no participation in the higher levels of government and none whatsoever in the judiciary. Even within the democratic movement only 14 out of the 485 MPs elected in 1990 were women – all from my own party, the National League for Democracy. These 14 women represent less than 3 percent of the total number of successful candidates. They, like their male colleagues, have not been permitted to take office since the outcome of those elections has been totally ignored. Yet the very high performance of women in our educational system and in the management of commercial enterprises proves their enormous potential to contribute to the betterment of society in general. Meanwhile our women have yet to achieve those fundamental rights of free expression, association and security of life denied also to their menfolk.” 

However, since that speech nearly thirty years ago, Myanmar’s women have yet to achieve a fundamental transformation of their political power, as their voices are too often pushed to the side. 

Where Hülzer and Dudouet offer more general suggestions to DDR practitioners formulating post-conflict programming, Hülzer’s colleague Zin Mar Phyo, along with Dudouet, Ann-Kristin Sjöberg, Tilman Papesch, Katharina Schmitz, Nicolas Sion, Maw Day Myar, and Thinzar Linn Htet in Observe and Act offer a fascinating analysis of the current situation facing the women participating in some of Myanmar’s ethnic armed organizations, shining a light not only on the difficulties that many of Myanmar’s women currently face, but the issues that they are likely to face when the conflict is over and they attempt to become more active political participants in the future, more federal Myanmar. Their analysis ultimately attempts to help Myanmar’s women overcome the issues that have historically challenged women’s political participation in post-conflict settings around the world. Ultimately, the Berghof authors’ analysis of the situation facing Myanmar’s women—when coupled with prior research on female demobilization, reintegration, and political representation in previous post-conflict settings offers—suggests that Myanmar’s women may reach an important inflection point once the Naypyidaw junta is defeated.

KWO Member Holds Sign Demanding Ethnic Equality Feb 2021/Source: https://www.facebook.com/karenwomenorganization/photos/a.10152219774707208/10159096388037208
KWO Member Holds Sign Demanding Ethnic Equality Feb 2021/Source: https://www.facebook.com/karenwomenorganization/photos/a.10152219774707208/10159096388037208

In their study on the changes in women’s political representation in Africa following civil wars in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, Melanie M. Hughes and Aili Mari Tripp discovered that the conclusion of an armed conflict in Africa typically resulted in a four to five percent boost in legislative representation for women, representing a significant boost in what were often patriarchal pre-conflict countries. In their research Hughes and Tripp found that, “large-scale wars are most likely to produce major disruptions in social relations, creating circumstances that allow for new understandings of women’s roles. These ruptures have cascading effects, expressing themselves through women’s greater agency, not only in the home and community, but also in legislatures.” 

However, as Kamina Diallo—writing about the demobilization and reintegration of former female combatants in Côte d’Ivoire for the University of Québec at Montréal’s FrancoPaix Bulletin back in 2018—noted in her research, “the participation of women in conflict has not led to a transformation of social ties. The return to peace seems to have been accompanied by a return to the status quo for most of the women on the front lines.” Furthermore, Diallo notes that even worse for women, “the status of an ex-combatant inflicts a certain ‘stigma’ arising in connection with their ‘deviance’,” with any gains brought by their commitment to the cause not seeming to translate into either political power or social change as women are often not seen as being meant to participate in an armed struggle, resulting in the male leaders of resistance organizations ultimately diminishing or dismissing female contributions to the cause.

Post-junta Myanmar should therefore offer a unique, albeit challenging, opportunity for the country’s women to increase both their relative levels of political participation and their ability to influence the country’s future political trajectory. With that in mind, in Observe and Act, Zin Mar Phyo et al. not only examines the experiences of women in the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the Karen National Union (KNU)—in particular how their experiences reflect implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS)—but also how women’s participation in these political movements can be strengthened in the post-Civil War Myanmar in a way that increases women’s protection and their level of political participation. 

Though Hülzer and Dudouet’s research looks more generally at the difficulties that women face in post-conflict transitions, Zin Mar Phyo makes clear that in the specific case of Myanmar, women have been disproportionately affected by the military’s takeover of the country. Their research indicates that women have borne the brunt of a doubling in the poverty rate since the 2020 outbreak of the coup, which has adversely affected many Burmese women’s mental health and forced others into sexual exploitation in their attempts to earn enough to live. Moreover, even women who are members of Myanmar’s approximately twenty ethnic armed organizations tend to find that their ultimate participation in the EROs’ political deliberations is, “still relatively low at the decision-making levels.”

Despite the unfortunate, but seemingly ingrained, misogyny on the part of some male members of resistance leadership, there are some bright spots when it comes to women’s participation in Myanmar’s ethnic resistance organizations, with the KNPP and KNU examples of both the challenges and opportunities that Myanmar’s women face. Specifically, the KNU’s Karen Women’s Organization (KWO)—whose modern origins date back to at least 1985 when it was re-established under the leadership of Naw Lah Po, wife of KNU chairman General Bo Mya—is the main civil society organization (CSO) advocating for women’s rights in the ethnic Karen movement. Though it possesses somewhat more independence than other KNU structures thanks to help from the international donor community, the KWO does have its official place in the overall KNU architecture, with a responsibility to report to the organization’s Organizing and Information Department. 

Similarly, Zin Mar Phyo et al. note that the Karenni National Progressive Party’s Karenni National Women’s Organization (KNWO) also operates in reasonably close coordination with the KNPP, with the women’s organization operating as the main CSO fighting for women’s rights in KNPP-controlled areas of the country. However, while a bilateral ceasefire signed between the government in Naypyidaw and the KNPP in 2012 led to an improvement in the rights of women and girls in Karenni areas, “the [2021] military coup ended these slightly positive trends,” even though those positive trends had largely said more about the low baseline that women had experienced before than about any kind of real transformation in the way women were perceived in post-ceasefire society.

More broadly, the authors of Observe and Act make clear that while the top male leadership of the KNPP and KNU largely seem to evince an understanding of the importance of the women, peace, and security agenda, and demonstrates that they at least rhetorically accept the importance of gender equality, their understanding of what that means in practice can be somewhat lacking. However, despite an articulated commitment to the importance of women in decision-making, individual ERO township and district leaders tend to have less familiarity with the concept of gender equality and the WPS agenda, with the result in the past being that they tended to prioritize military and political affairs over the rights and protection of women, putting more responsibility on women’s organizations for the promotion of their rights. 

Furthermore, despite the fact that the KNU Constitution directs that, “the participation of women in the different levels of the Karen National Union must be promoted,” Zin Mar Phyo et al. note that, “even though the KNU was one of the EROs requesting at least 30% of women’s participation in the [Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement from 2015], they have not yet adopted this policy for their own organisation.” Moreover, as mentioned above, the KWO is not actually an official arm of the KNU, but rather a CSO linked to the ERO’s Organising and Information Department. 

Meeting of the Karen Women's Organization, October 28, 2022/Source: https://www.facebook.com/karenwomenorganization/photos/a.10152178524227208/10160284139237208
Meeting of the Karen Women’s Organization, October 28, 2022/Source: https://www.facebook.com/karenwomenorganization/photos/a.10152178524227208/10160284139237208

Similarly, in Kayah State, female leaders interviewed for the Berghof Foundation report stated that, “there are no specific laws and policies on women and gender equality in the KNPP Constitution, but only a general clause on equality and justice for all.” Additionally, the report’s authors note that, “some top leaders of the KNPP clearly stated that neither the party nor the governance bodies have adopted any formal policies on women’s participation, whilst other KNPP leaders and some CSO representatives mistakenly understood that there was already a 30% quota system in place.” 

In essence, while both organizations have some rules and regulations to promote women’s rights and female participation in governance in their territories, “not all interviewed members and leaders have a clear understanding of these policies.” As a result, both the KNU and KNPP have very few women participating in their leadership structures, with the KNU having just five women occupying the sixty-six Central Standing Committee and Central Executive Committee positions. Similarly, the KNPP—whose KNWO was formed as an independent CSO rather than a full-fledged wing of the KNPP—sees just one female member on their Central Executive Committee and two more as alternate members. 

In looking at current practices regarding women’s participation in resistance organizations’ decision-making, the authors conclude, “it can be assessed that while both movements demonstrate a general understanding of the importance of women’s participation in decision-making, current practices reveal a need for more gender awareness within the two organisations, and in leadership structures in particular.” Further complicating matters for women across the country—despite the lack of women’s participation in political decision-making in either the KNU or KNPP—is the fact that, “in comparison to other EROs, the KNU and the KNPP are among the movements with the strongest women’s participation and the most inclusive governance structures, especially due to the very proactive role of women’s organisations.” 

Therefore, in a post-coup Myanmar, while there are some structures in place that could see women achieve a deal of political representation once the military has been defeated, those structures are tenuous and not present in all corners of of the country, necessitating some degree of outside intervention if Myanmar’s international partners wish to promote a gendered perspective and women’s equal and meaningful participation in the future peace process, peacebuilding efforts, and eventual future security architecture of the country. However, the structures to accomplish this increase in women’s representation and participation do exist through female participation in the country’s Civil Disobedience Movement and groups like the KWO and KNWO. 

Insights from Women in Resistance and Liberation Movements - Myanmar/Source: https://berghof-foundation.org/library/gender-inclusive-conflict-transformation Page 5
Insights from Women in Resistance and Liberation Movements – Myanmar/Source: https://berghof-foundation.org/library/gender-inclusive-conflict-transformation

Achieving more meaningful female participation in post-Civil War federal state leadership structures will however require overcoming a number of challenges, not least of which is the fact that not all EROs in Myanmar possess women’s organizations which promote gender equality and the role of women in constructing a peaceful post-coup Myanmar. Yet another challenge that Zin Mar Phyo et al. list is that cultural norms and gender stereotypes about the proper roles of women will likely be something to overcome, as one female KNU leader protested that, “they [male leaders] just think men are better than women. Due to this mindset, they couldn’t even elect 7 women among the 24 female delegates for the positions of 55 members in the Central Standing Committee during the last Congress. They have concerns that women are talkative and create more debates and long discussions.” More specifically, as Véronique Dudouet and Claudia Cruz Almeida write in their research brief, “Political Engagement by Former Armed Groups Outside Party Politics,” a recurrent factor in post-conflict environments is that the political transitions of armed groups will inevitably leave out marginalized voices and agendas such that, “demobilized women are often discouraged from pursuing political careers, and their reintegration options are often limited by social stigma, mistrust and limited financial means, as well as sexist and gender-stereotypical approaches to DDR.”

Insights from Women in Resistance and Liberation Movements - Myanmar #2/Source: https://berghof-foundation.org/library/gender-inclusive-conflict-transformation Page 7
Insights from Women in Resistance and Liberation Movements – Myanmar #2/Source: https://berghof-foundation.org/library/gender-inclusive-conflict-transformation Page 7

Another issue standing in the way of greater levels of post-conflict female participation in decision-making is that, “some of the existing policies and commitments [made by KNU leaders] seemed to have resulted from external pressures, rather than from a proactive internal decision within the KNU leadership, which has hindered effective implementation and the development of systematic action plans.” This demonstrates that a key consideration for Myanmar’s international partners will be in convincing those former ERO leaders who become future state administrators that not only is a greater degree of female participation in decision-making something that the country’s international partners desire, but it is a process that will pay long-term dividends for Burmese society as well as peace agreements are more durable and less likely to fail when women are involved in the peace process from the outset. Moreover, Myanmar’s partners will also need to convince ERO leaders engaging in peace negotiations how important it will be to include in any future peace deal justice provisions for women seeking redress against both junta and ERO members who are alleged to have committed sexual and gender-based violence towards them. 

Insights from Women in Resistance and Liberation Movements - Myanmar #2/Source: https://berghof-foundation.org/library/gender-inclusive-conflict-transformation Page 7
Insights from Women in Resistance and Liberation Movements – Myanmar #2/Source: https://berghof-foundation.org/library/gender-inclusive-conflict-transformation Page 7

Once that buy-in is achieved, Myanmar’s EROs and its international partners will also have to overcome capacity and resource gaps in bringing women into decision-making processes, especially as, “leaders from KNPP’s Justice Department…identified the lack of gender awareness, technical support, knowledge on international laws regarding women, and the lack of an adequate budget as the greatest challenges facing the implementation of protective measures for women,” with the result that, “many interviewees from both movements highlighted the need for awareness-raising and capacity-building activities and trainings throughout all organs of the EROs, including the military branches.” Such support and financing needs to help highlight and alleviate the caring and family burdens that traditional gender norms place on women, which negatively impacts their ability to participate in decision-making processes that are typically conducted during daytime hours when women cannot leave their children at home with their fathers who are frequently out working as well. 

Even where women have the opportunity to participate in political decision-making, the Berghof Foundation authors point out, they are often burdened by childcare costs or travel expenses, which make it prohibitively difficult for them to make the trek to the central locations where policy is being formulated. What’s more, even where there is an acknowledgement that there is a need for greater female participation in decision-making, the report notes that, “there is often a responsibility and dependency upon women’s organisations to ‘deliver’ qualified women to address this work,’” with little responsibility taken by male ERO leadership to cultivate the development of these types of female decision makers in the first place.

The Post-Coup Cost of Caring for Family for Myanmar's Women/Source: https://myanmar.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/Regressing%20Gender%20Equality%20in%20Myanmar%20-%20Women%20Living%20under%20the%20pandemic%20and%20military%20rule-March%202022.pdf#page=52
The Post-Coup Cost of Caring for Family for Myanmar’s Women/Source: https://myanmar.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/Regressing%20Gender%20Equality%20in%20Myanmar%20-%20Women%20Living%20under%20the%20pandemic%20and%20military%20rule-March%202022.pdf#page=52
Post-Coup Myanmar: In the words of Burmese women/Source: https://myanmar.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/Regressing%20Gender%20Equality%20in%20Myanmar%20-%20Women%20Living%20under%20the%20pandemic%20and%20military%20rule-March%202022.pdf#page=55

Further complicating this challenge is the fact that Burmese women have been disproportionately affected by 2021 coup, with one interviewed male KNU leader stating that, “women have more security concerns during the conflict,” and a majority of female interviewees telling the Berghof Foundation highlight, “an increase in [gender-based violence] and domestic violence during the conflict in their territories.” In fact, the UN Development Programme’s April 2022 report, “Regressing Gender Equality in Myanmar: Women living under the pandemic and military rule,” found that in a survey of 2,200 Burmese women, the number one response to interviewees when asked about their lives over the months since the war is that, “women are not safe and secure when they go outside during this period,” and that four in ten Burmese women do not feel safe in their own village or even their own homes at night. As a result of this gender-based violence, women in Myanmar have been less willing to participate in decision-making, at a time when, “many respondents emphasised that women’s experiences in the conflict must be recognised and amplified, and women should be encouraged to share stories of their experiences and resilience.”

Myanmar's Civilian Vulnerability to Violence Index - Violence Against Women/Source: https://myanmar.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/Regressing%20Gender%20Equality%20in%20Myanmar%20-%20Women%20Living%20under%20the%20pandemic%20and%20military%20rule-March%202022.pdf#page=21
Myanmar’s Civilian Vulnerability to Violence Index – Violence Against Women/Source: https://myanmar.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/Regressing%20Gender%20Equality%20in%20Myanmar%20-%20Women%20Living%20under%20the%20pandemic%20and%20military%20rule-March%202022.pdf#page=21

The Post-Civil War Political Transformation of Myanmar’s EROs and the Challenges Facing Burmese Women

If resistance forces are eventually able to defeat the junta on the battlefield and begin to formulate a real federal constitution for the country—a future that is by no means guaranteed—there will still be a number of issues facing not only the central government in Naypyidaw but individual state governments throughout the country as the various EROs attempt the transformation from non-state armed group to state administrators. Moreover, that challenge will be magnified for Myanmar’s women, who already face obstacles in achieving equal rights and representation inside existing ethnic resistance organizations.

However, the reports from Hülzer, Dudouet, Zin Mar Phyo et al. do offer some important insights for conducting these transitions in such a way that not only do these EROs have the ability to complete the transformation from armed resistance organization to functioning political party but that their female members—as well as all women and girls living in the territory they eventually administer—both feel safe from gender-based violence and exploitation as well as have a real voice in the future of their state and their country. 

In order to achieve this brighter future for Myanmar’s ethnic parties and women, the peace process will likely require some kind of outside expert assistance and financing. As part of reaching for that outside assistance—and in order to help enough ERO leaders gain the technical capacity to adequately govern their future state territories—EROs could speak with peacebuilding organizations as well as other organizations which have successfully completed the transition from non-state armed group to state administrator to gain the benefits of their past experiences. Furthermore, before a comprehensive peace agreement and a new constitution is agreed to between Myanmar’s twenty plus ethnic groups, each of them would likely benefit from prior consultations with outside experts in structuring what they think that the country’s future federal constitution should look like. While each ERO likely has a strong idea of how it views the future Myanmar, working with groups that have gone through the process before and have successfully navigated the path from armed group to governing political organization could be helpful in avoiding pitfalls like a failure to retain rank-and-file buy-in for whatever peace deal is ultimately reached. 

What Hülzer and Dudouet’s report makes clear is that not only are there opportunities to aid the political transformation of former non-state armed groups in every peace process, but that the timing, sequencing and terminology surrounding DDR and the political transformation of these groups needs to take into account the specific context of each society engaging in these processes in order to be successful. What’s more, Hülzer and Dudouet also argue that, as a result, civic education often needs to be embedded into any DDR program—even when dealing with NSAGs like the ones in Myanmar which have years of actual governance experience running state and local-level government bodies in their territories—as former combatants will need to be educated on the rights and responsibilities that they have in citizens in a possible in a future federal Myanmar in order to complete the shift from armed combatant to peaceful political participant.

As Hilary Matfess wrote in a June 2022 Research Brief for Sweden’s Folke Bernadotte Academy titled, “Women and Rebel to Party Transitions,” while, “there are no ‘one size fits all’ policies when it comes to advancing women’s issues and rights,” policymakers can work to include mandatory provisions in the peace deal and future constitution about the inclusion of women in local-, state- and federal-level decision-making and the importance of women’s issues in a future peace agreement in Myanmar as well as the platform of EROs or the National Unity Government and National Unity Consultative Council. In addition, international policymakers, peacebuilders, and external experts can directly work with women’s groups like the KWO or the KNWO, providing the organizations with the technical training and financing to ensure that their members have the ability to productively participate in any future peace negotiation processes that occur in Myanmar before they start. The country’s democratic international partners can also provide direct support to any future DDR program established in Myanmar in order to ensure that it takes into account the particular needs of female ex-combatants as they make the often difficult transition from fighter-to-citizen. 

As Claudia Cruz Almeida, Véronique Dudouet and Victoria Cochrane-Buchmüller note in, “Gender-inclusive conflict transformation: Insights from female former combatants and women associated with resistance and liberation movements,” one challenge that female ex-combatants often confront in terms of political reintegration is a sense of stigmatization from the male members of their societies. In fact, the report notes that, “those [women] who attempt to run for public office suffer a double stigma for having belonged to a [resistance and liberation] group and for speaking their mind in a patriarchal society. Many female combatants are also prevented from accessing the political sphere due to a dearth of available information on political participation and dedicated training,” in addition to encountering hurdles when attempting to run for political office. Correspondingly, Myanmar’s female ex-combatants will likely need external financial and technical support in order to circumvent these challenges and to form or transform female-led and -organized groups that advocate for women’s rights and greater gender inclusion in Myanmar. 

As Åshild Kolås of the Peace Research Institute Oslo writes in her book, Women, Peace and Security in Myanmar: Between Feminism and Ethnopolitics, “despite the obstacles and lack of equal opportunities, women in Myanmar are active agents for change. They are involved in civil society peacebuilding as well as ethnopolitical mobilization. Though largely undocumented, women play a significant role as cadres and supporters of armed groups, and some are also trained as combatants. In pan-ethnic women’s organizations, such as the Women’s League of Burma, women activists have strengthened their influence through alliance-building and contributed significantly to the peace process through campaigns and organizational work.” 

Moreover, as Mollie Pepper writes in her 2018 paper, “Ethnic Minority Women, Diversity, and Informal Participation in Peacebuilding in Myanmar,” for the Journal of Peacebuilding & Development, “with few exceptions, women in Myanmar…are key players in peacebuilding…due to their strong civil society activism organised primarily through ethnic women’s organisations, which places them around the table, if not at the table.” However, she also writes that, “a major concern voiced by ethnic women’s organisations is that peace and development efforts that do not include them miss addressing the needs and interests of large swathes of the population.” Additionally, Pepper notes, “other interview participants raised…concerns that the international community and donors are, in large part, driving the exclusion of many parts of Myanmar society from the peace process by failing to recognise the importance of an intersectional and diversity-oriented approach to the peace process.”

Therefore, as part of any future DDR process in Myanmar—especially as the country’s twenty EROs attempt the tough transition from resistance organization to political party—Myanmar’s women would not only benefit from being able to consult with the experienced members of women’s groups who have already navigated the difficult transition from war to peace from a female perspective, but that such outside expertise must at least attempt to reach both female ex-combatants as well as the women living in more remote, rural areas of the country that did not directly take part in the resistance. 

However, as Marie E. Berry wrote in a 2015 study of the paradoxes facing efforts towards women’s empowerment following the 1994 Rwandan genocide, despite Kigali’s enactment of women-centered policies and programs in their post-conflict context, the promises offered by those policies and programs often came up against realities that did not always square with outside partners’ lofty rhetoric. For instance, in Rwanda, where the government’s Vision 2020 espoused a promise of free primary school for all in order to increase the percentage of girls in lower education, it led to girls’ educational expectations being heightened while school fees and the price of upper secondary education priced them out of actually attaining that education and the path to a better life that it promises. As such, failures to achieve the promises of truly empowering women and girls often results in frustration and disillusionment with the country’s overall political trajectory and creates ripe breeding grounds for future unrest. 

In light of the difficulties seen in other transitions, it will be important that Myanmar’s international partners ensure that any future post-conflict structures that promote women which are agreed to during peace negotiations are formulated and funded in ways that ensure they actually deliver on their promises and that they do not leave large sections of the population feeling that they were sold a bill of goods, resulting in resentment towards both their new government and the outside partners who failed to deliver for them. For instance, while the CRPH has issued a Federal Democracy Charter that calls for equal rights for all and a commitment to gender equality, it remains for these commitments to be translated into specific constitutional provisions with clear guidelines on how they will be implemented in the future and how Burmese women can seek redress if those rights are violated. 

What’s more, any national economic plans that emerge from the post-conflict peace process must take into account women’s frequent participation in the more informal end of the employment spectrum where pay is often lower, “due to discriminatory social norms that restrict women to ‘appropriate jobs’,” and especially as, “the return to military rule has already rolled back many of the hard-fought gains made in expanding labour rights during recent years.” 

For EROs and their members, the DDR process and the path towards political empowerment for EROs-turned-political-parties will need to be supported through: increased international support for ongoing civic education for ex-combatants and citizens living in ERO-administered territory; the opportunity for consultations with outside peacebuilding experts as well as former NSAG members who have gone through a similar transition elsewhere; a contextually-sensitive structure for the peace process that helps Myanmar’s various EROs, the NUG, e Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), and NUCC to properly sequence DDR programming and political transformation processes; peace mediators and international guarantors to the peace process that encourage accountability for crimes committed by both ERO and junta members during the war; building the technical, legal, and political skills of ERO negotiators before, during, and after peace negotiations and talks surrounding the future federal constitution; the early inclusion of women at all stages of the peace process as negotiators, peacebuilders, and political leaders including through the provision of funding to women’s organizations to support the continued development of capable female peacebuilders; and ensuring that any international support for the peace process is designed such that it supports the EROs not only during the first post-Civil War election but for at least two or three cycles afterwards. 

However, while such external support will help buttress the political transformations of Myanmar’s non-state armed groups into functioning and capable political parties, it will be vitally important that Myanmar’s women—not only the ones that are already part of women’s organizations such as the KWO or KNWO—are actively included in the peace process from the very start. Meanwhile, existing EROs without women’s groups should be encouraged to create such structures for women within their own organizations—with Myanmar’s international partners and peacebuilding organizations helping to foot the bill—giving women the possibility to participate in ERO group decision-making and allowing women to openly share their experiences and the issues they face before, during, and after the conflict. Moreover, the creation of women’s caucuses or councils could help women, “identify, formulate, and lobby for the implementation of priority policy areas,” in order to ensure inclusive political participation where women are fully engaged in political dialogues led by the CRPH, NUG, or NUCC.

The international community must also be ready to work more directly with existing ERO women’s organizations and other local civil society organizations in order to increase women’s civic education and to build their capacity to engage in political discussions, through the provision of expert assistance, training, and funding. Moreover, to make clear to ERO partners that the empowerment of women is not simply a woman’s issue, all outside assistance should come from the highest levels of international departments and agencies and should come not only from female leaders within those organizations but also from high-ranking male leaders who strongly advocate for women’s participation in Myanmar’s post-Civil War peacebuilding. What’s more, international peacebuilders and guarantors of the future peace process can also help fund the development of support systems for women within each ethnic resistance organization, including funding for women and girls’ health and justice services in ERO-administered areas, as well as educational programs and cash transfers that support women’s advancement and economic self-empowerment. 

Yet another valuable contribution from the international community would be in creating spaces for female-led dialogue between ERO leaders and prominent female actors in the country such as May Sabe Phyu—leader of Myanmar’s Gender Equality Network—or Naw Hser Hser, secretary-general of the Women’s League of Burma. Such talks could also include women like democracy activist Ein Soe May—who was sexually assaulted and tortured while the junta imprisoned her for nearly six months—who can share a unique perspective on both the abuses of the military and the extra difficulties that face women who speak their mind in paternalistic and patriarchal societies. Or the talks could include a woman such as Khin Lay, the Founder and Director of Triangle Women’s Support Group, an organization that has for years worked for women’s empowerment at the grassroots level across Myanmar. Any of these women would be able to provide male ERO leaders with a view on the country’s conflict and the issues facing Myanmar’s women that its men are not as intimately familiar with. 

If Myanmar’s international partners are able to view DDR, the political transformation of EROs into political parties, and the role of women in both processes more holistically, they will have a better idea of both the challenges facing post-conflict Myanmar as well as the opportunities to improve the post-war social and political environments for women, giving Burmese women a greater ability to contribute to the future directions of both their state and their country. While the post-conflict peace process in Myanmar will likely encounter its share of difficulties, the country’s international partners—if they wish to see a future Myanmar that is peaceful, democratic, and that ensures the rights and full participation of women—would do well to embrace the idea that peace negotiations and the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration processes will be long-term processes and not without their bumps along the way. 


Only by starting preparations now—through the provision of outside technical expertise and financial assistance to the country’s EROs as well as women and women’s groups before a peace process even begins–can Myanmar’s ethnic resistance organizations’ international partners begin to ensure that the country’s many transitions from ERO to political party are successful and sustainable. Moreover, by helping to bring Myanmar’s women more firmly into the political dialogue process from the outset, Myanmar’s international partners can not only help ensure a greater future for Myanmar’s women but a safer, more peaceful, more prosperous future for the whole country as well.

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Leaving Conflict Behind: The Political Transformation of Myanmar’s EROs After the War and Overcoming the Unique Challenges Facing Female Ex-Combatants (Draft)

January 13, 2023

Back on January 11th, the Berghof Foundation published a new report in conjunction with the United Nations Department of Peace Operations titled, “Leaving Conflict Firmly Behind Through the Political Transformation of Armed Groups: Notes for DDR and Peacebuilding Practitioners,” by Johanna-Maria Hülzer and Véronique Dudouet of the Berghof Foundation, with the support of Sergiusz Sidorowicz and Thomas Kontogeorgos of the United Nations Department of Peace Operations’ Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) section. The report aims to compile the lessons learned by both the UN and other international practitioners on the interlinkages between DDR and political transformation in Mali, Colombia, Mindanao/Philippines, and Northern Ireland in order to help ensure that future peace processes go more smoothly. 

While the report is fascinating enough on its own, when it is coupled with another report the Foundation released in December 2022, “Observe and Act: The Role of Armed and Political Movements in the Implementation of the Women, Peace and Security Agenda in Myanmar,” by lead author Zin Mar Phyo, along with Véronique Dudouet, Ann-Kristin Sjöberg, Tilman Papesch, Katharina Schmitz, Nicolas Sion, Maw Day Myar, and Thinzar Linn Htet, the two pieces combine to shed a unique light on the opportunities and challenges regarding the post-war reintegration of ex-combatants and the political transformation of the country into a nation where both male and female citizens have equal rights and the ability to have a voice in the country’s future. 

As noted by the DDR report’s authors, one thing that has too often been overlooked by peacebuilders in recent years is the political trajectories that armed groups take in post conflict environments as the ex-combatants attempt the often difficult transition from fighting for their country to attempting to lead it. In Myanmar, if and when the country’s various Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) are able to vanquish the junta, the country will still face a tremendous number of issues as those EAOs attempt to transition from informal governance providers to becoming the groups with final responsibility for the protection and well-being of citizens in their future federal states. 

Furthermore, as the United Nations Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration Resource’s Centre’s Integrated DDR Standards states, “DDR is not only a technical endeavour – many aspects of the DDR process will influence, and be influenced by, political dynamics. For example, armed groups may refuse to disarm and demobilize until they are sure that their political demands will be met.” What’s more, “integrated DDR processes can facilitate engagement with armed groups but will have limited impact unless parallel efforts are undertaken to address the reasons why these groups felt it necessary to mobilize in the first place, their current and prospective security concerns, and their expectations for the future.” 

According to Hülzer and Dudouet, for a DDR process to lead to a successful political transformation in the post-conflict environment, the process must involve providing ex-combatants with avenues to exert their political agency, as, “according to the rules of the democratic game, prospective political actors are required to give up their arms in order to credibly participate in civilian politics.” As such, DDR and political transformation are, according to the Berghof authors, “concomitant and mutually beneficial processes.” Furthermore, while only a few members of these non-state armed groups (NSAGs) eventually go on to become political leaders, many of the rank-and-file members of these organizations still aspire to preserve their own sense of political agency and to become citizens that fully participate in their society, whether through party politics or civil society entities that allow former insurgents to become advocates for the social movements that they feel closest to. 

However, the transition from member of a group fighting the government on the battlefield to a citizen playing a more active role in that government, can be difficult to accomplish, and in particular, demobilizing and reintegrating ex-combatants into the political structure of the nation often requires outside support from partners, aid providers, and international organizations such as the United Nations. In their report, Hülzer and Dudouet examine the political transformations in Northern Ireland, Mindanao/Philippines, Colombia, and Mali in order to determine the impact that DDR programs have on the future political transformation of those countries and the various paths that former NSAGs take in their quest to go from winning on the battlefield to winning at the ballot box. 

In Northern Ireland, the authors note how the 1998 Good Friday Agreement created a political architecture enabling a more-level playing field for contesting political power in Northern Ireland and that the self-led demobilization of the Irish Republican Army was only achieved due to the unity of the Republican movement in insisting on making progress on the withdrawal of British troops, the reform of the police and justice systems in Northern Ireland, and the establishment of island-wide political institutions before they willingly gave up their weapons. However, Hülzer and Dudouet argue that the cohesion needed to survive the political transformation process was made possible due to the Republicans’ leadership’s commitment to ensuring the buy-in of its rank-and-file members; though outside support from the Irish-American diaspora and several other NSAGs that had already gone through the process was sought and received by IRA and Sinn Féin leaders. 

Finally, the Berghof Foundation authors also note that political success was not necessarily immediate for the Republicans—as their party members had to take time to become more skilled in building their experience and the confidence of voters—with their vote reaching 20% of the electorate in 2001 before finally capturing 29% of the votes and a place of prominence as the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2022. 

In the Philippines, where a comprehensive peace agreement was finally signed between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front on the southern Philippines island of Mindanao and the Republic in just 2014 after nearly forty years of conflict over independence for Muslim majority Moro areas in the south, disarmament and the political transition were conducted concomitantly, with MILF members being permitted to participate in the political process while not having fully relinquished their weapons. However, despite being allowed to participate in the political process before fully disarming, candidates of the MILF-founded United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) have failed to achieve the kind of electoral success its leaders likely envisioned as part of the peace agreement, and demonstrates the fact that many in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) still have a sense of being “left behind” by the MILF-led interim government. Together, these facts indicate that not only do transitions take longer than one or two electoral cycle, but that by structuring the peace agreement as one where both parties have to fulfill their own deliverables before moving on to the next stage, it means that when one side does not make good on its promises, the whole process can turn bumpy and requires the central government to remain politically committed to the process over a long period of time. 

In Colombia—where the 2016 Havana Peace Agreement finally brought an end to a conflict between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP) that began in 1964—while there is, as Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Colombia and Head of the United Nations Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu said back in April 2022, “no question that the successful laydown of thousands of arms of the former FARC-EP…significantly reduced nation-wide levels of conflict-related violence,” violence still lingers as progress on completing all aspects of the peace agreement are still incomplete. Moreover, like the MILF in Mindanao, former FARC-EP members have had difficulties in achieving political success through the creation of the Comunes party, which has resulted in internal power struggles between leaders of the party. However, overall, the peace process and the success that the country has seen in demobilizing 13,000 former FARC-EP fighters demonstrates that with international support, success is possible, though Bogotá must continue to provide security, land reform, and economic opportunities to demobilized fighters or else the country risks backsliding into violence if FARC splinter groups and the government are unable to come to a lasting ceasefire agreement. 

Finally, in Mali, where the 2015 Algiers Peace Agreement was signed between the government and two major coalitions of armed groups—the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), comprising armed opposition groups from Northern Mali, and the Platform of Movements (the Platform)—the process towards disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration has been slow and tensions between Tuareg rebel groups in the north and Bamako rise to their highest level in many years and has recently seen a coalition of armed groups called the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD) say that it has pulled out of the Algiers Agreement due to a lack of political will on the part of the junta to implement the accord’s provisions. As Hülzer and Dudouet write, “the Malian central government and the international community focus most of their attention on the security pillar and neglect progress on institutional and political reform, while the signatory movements are waiting for progress on the latter as a condition for their full demobilisation. At the same time, violent jihadist groups pose a constant security threat to local communities from which the signatory movements derive their legitimacy. This creates bottom-up pressure for the movements to stay armed in order to protect their communities in the absence of reformed state security forces,” and threatens the viability of the overall peace process. 

By looking at these four ongoing peace processes, Hülzer and Dudouet arrive at a number of key ingredients for a successful political transformation. They note that groups that successfully complete their transition from the battlefield to the ballot box possess strong internal cohesion, with leaders of demobilizing groups needing to balance the demands of group elites with those of rank-and-file members who may not feel that the “peace dividend” has quite reached them yet. To bolster the unity among these movements, the authors suggest providing demobilizing groups with access to experts from other groups that have successfully made the transition from rebel group to political party. In addition, they suggest that international partners to the peace process can provide technical and financial support to mid-level and rank-and-file ex-combatants as they attempt to navigate the complexities of their new democratic political system. 

Secondly, the authors argue that a sustainable peace agreement requires a well-planned and inclusive peacebuilding process which includes security guarantees for ex-combatants, socio-economic support to enable their reintegration into society, and provisions to aid rebel groups in their transition into political parties that have the ability to actually govern. In peace agreements without provisions for the transformation of NSAGs into political parties, such as in Mali’s Algiers Agreement, it can make the political transformation of those rebel groups harder, impeding progress towards peace. By contrast, in places where the transformation of the rebel group into a political party is a central element of the peace agreement—such as in the 2016 Havana Peace Agreement in Colombia with the FARC-EP—the process has yielded greater progress, though there are still issues that remain. The authors also state that peace agreements need to contain broader transformations of the political system—including structural changes to the political system and accountability mechanisms for office-holders—as well as inter-party bodies for verification and monitoring of implementation in order to build trust between parties to enable reciprocal steps towards DDR and political transformation. 

However, as part of this effort to better structure an inclusive peace process, the authors argue that such processes must be contextually-specific and tailored to the particularities of the sides involved. For instance, they state that the seriousness of NSAG’s political agendas must be considered during peace negotiations in order to inform the design of DDR and political transition processes in order to enhance their chances for success, as such a contextual analysis can help determine whether interlocutors should focus on individual pathways to peaceful politics or more collective ones. Moreover, contextual analysis needs to inform the timing and sequencing of the subsequent accord, as allowing NSAG figures to circumvent steps towards disarmament and demobilization while allowing ex-combatants to enter the political field can hinder the overall progress of the peace process. 

A third ingredient for a successful political transition that was identified by the authors is trust-building and transitional justice. In Colombia, the authors note how ex-FARC guerillas were forced to face prosecution for crimes committed during the insurgency while they were running for elections, which damaged the groups members’ electoral chances and hindered trust-building between the ex-rebels and the Colombian people. In addition, transitional justice processes need to be structured so that they provide the opportunity to bring to light patterns of state-led injustice that often lay at the roots of NSAGs formations. To support this ingredient, the authors propose that any external mediators, guarantors, and technical advisor need to help structure peace agreements so that those who have committed crimes during the insurgency are brought to justice with guarantor countries and the UN convincing former combatants to accept legal verdicts against them in Colombia as a model for future international peace partners. 

A fourth ingredient offered by the authors is that state actors must be ready to uphold their sides of the bargain in peace agreements. Part of this may include a reform of a state’s security apparatus in order to reestablish trust between the sector, the population, and former combatants. As mentioned above, the violence in Colombia that has seen nearly 300 ex-combatants killed since the 2016 peace agreement was signed demonstrates the fact that the government must maintain a robust commitment to the security of ex-combatants during these periods, lest they risk the agreement coming apart. To better balance the scales between an often powerful government and a demobilizing non-state armed group, the authors propose that international partners to the peace process must aid NSAGs as they navigate the often tricky process of demobilization and political transformation. Specifically, they argue that actors such as UN missions and guarantor states should both support the monitoring of peace agreements to ensure the security of ex-combatants as well as to hold the implementing state to its commitments in operationalizing the specific elements of the peace deal. 

A fifth ingredient—and one that will be discussed in greater depth in the next section—is gender sensitivity and ensuring the inclusion of women in the design and implementation of peace agreements and the subsequent DDR process. Too often, women are marginalized by their male counterparts in these processes, and subsequently lack access to the educational and economic reintegration packages offered to male ex-combatants, exacerbating the burdens of family and child-care that disproportionately fall on women in conflict-affected areas. The authors state that, “transition support schemes such as DDR programmes need to enable women to build upon the specific social capital and agency they may have gained during their time with the armed groups in order to prevent them from falling back into a hostile pre-mobilisation social environment or slipping into poverty and social exclusion.” If such structures are not put in place, other studies show that women combatants in post-conflict settings often go through a “continuum of gender inequalities” during the peacebuilding and DDR processes. To remedy this, Hülzer and Dudouet argue that external actors need to promote the inclusion of women at all stages of the peace process, as negotiators, peacebuilders, and political leaders, as called for in the UN DDR Centre’s Integrated DDR Standards 5.10 on Women, Gender and DDR. Moreover, they say that gender-responsive DDR scheme require an analysis of the roles that women played in the NSAG, their social and educational background, and both their individual and collective aspirations for the future in order to help build a better tomorrow for women in post-conflict settings, as opposed to just offering them a path back to the now-unsatisfactory status quo ante.

Finally, the last element needed for a group’s successful transition from NSAG to political entity is a sustainable implementation process where both sides are able and willing to meet the milestones outlined in any peace agreement. However, as peace agreements often usher in new political landscapes in countries where widespread political participation often was not possible in the pre-conflict period, As such, any DDR process must also come with robust civic education for ex-combatants as they learn the intricacies of their new political environment and how they might best participate in it—whether through civil society organizations or direct political party participation. Moreover, ex-combatants need to be prepared for the fact that they may encounter setbacks in their journeys towards obtaining real electoral success. To aid them, the authors propose that outside guarantors and partners need to not only provide training on the new political system being birthed in the country, but psychosocial support in order to make the mental transition from fighting the state to becoming an active participant in it. 

The authors then conclude their report with four main recommendations for DDR and peacebuilding practitioners to pursue as they navigate the intricacies of new and existing peace processes. First, they state that peace support actors need to explore options to help facilitate the political participation of ex-combatants in all peace processes. Second, they argue that peace agreements need to be structured with the understanding that parties need to build trust both internally with their own hardline members, between the NSAG and the state, and between the NSAG and the overall population, ensuring that the timing, sequencing, and terminology surrounding the DDR and political transition process are structured as such that they take into account the particular needs and sensitivities of the various factions involved. Third, they propose that political transformation and civic education need to be embedded as standard components of DDR programs in order to help ex-combatants understand both their political rights and their responsibilities as citizens, enabling them to better understand how they fit into the new political landscape and eventually effectuate the change in society that they want to see. Finally, the authors argue that as the process of transforming a non-state armed group into a political party is often a long-term one, external partners to the process not only need to provide long-term support, coaching, and funding for demobilizing NSAGs, but that special attention should be paid to the specific difficulties that women face during this process that are not faced by their male counterparts.

Applying the Ingredients for a Successful Political Transformation in Myanmar

In looking at the situation in Myanmar, where junta security forces have arrested more than 16,000 pro-democracy activists and killed at least 2,300 and fighting has displaced over 1 million people internally, and the civil war looks to be locked in somewhat of a stalemate, it may seem a bit presumptuous to be looking at the elements of a successful political transformation in the country in a post-conflict environment. However, there are signs that the Sit-Tat may be losing ground and the National Unity Government’s international partners need to start thinking about how to help the country’s EAOs navigate their paths towards a prosperous and peaceful post-junta future for the country. 

The first lesson that Myanmar’s international partners should internalize and start acting on now is to provide technical and financial support to EAOs looking to bolster their ability to communicate to their rank-and-file members what their leadership sees as the ultimate political goals of the group. For Myanmar’s various EAOs, that would likely mean providing group members with a better understanding of what they will be looking for in a future federal structure for the country and what specific kinds of devolved powers the various ethnically-dominated federal states will have. As groups like the Karen National Union (KNU) have, “always been a highly heterogeneous movement, comprised as it is of members from divers political, religious, geographic, economic, and educational backgrounds,” it may be difficult to ensure internal cohesion, and as such, leadership will need to ensure it has adequately explained its positions before entering into any future peace process lest they risk losing the buy-in of their rank-and-file members. Such a process will likely require outside support from Myanmar’s democratic partners to help support civic education and training on democratic governance. 

Another lesson for Myanmar’s future peace process from the Berghof Foundation report is that any future comprehensive peace agreement in the country will need to be careful to ensure that disarmament and demobilization processes contain provisions for how EAOs can manage the delicate transition from NSAG to security provider in their state. Furthermore, while most of Myanmar’s twenty or so ethnic armed groups do have some experience in administering the territories under their control, and will likely need less rebel-to-party transformation assistance, any future political transition in the country will likely require those EAOs to provide a good degree of socio-economic support for the civilian reintegration of their actual members who have never been able to truly participate in a national political process before. Moreover, members of the military, which is largely Bamar-dominated, will need to be provided with their own path towards political self-actualization and guidance on how to achieve it in a future Myanmar where the military is no longer the best source of real political power. 

A future peace agreement in Myanmar will also require a good degree of trust-building between former EAO members, former Sit-Tat members, and the rest of society. In Myanmar—in particular after decades of military rule that saw rampant abuse of the civilian population by the Myanmar military along with a genocide of Rohingya Muslims in the northern part of the country—trust building will not be easy between ethnic groups and the Bamar-majority Sit-Tat members. As such, any future peace agreement will need to have the participation of victims in the design of DDR programming as it will be extremely hard to build trust between the civilian populace and former members of the military after so many decades of military domination and abuse. 

This will require Myanmar’s external partners to make sure that the peace agreement contains clear, sequential steps that all sides must take in order to advance towards the next stage in the process. For instance, in any future peace deal, Aung San Suu Kyi’s Bamar-dominated National League for Democracy—which, in the past has used its majority in parliament to block proposals by other ethnicities members of parliaments such as those by Rakhine State MPs regarding the plight of internally-displaced peoples there—will need to codify its commitments to allow some kind of equal voice for smaller ethnic minorities in the country before those EAOs should agree to give up their weapons. Likely, such an accommodation will involve an agreement to permit some kind of equal representation for ethnic minority states in the future Constitution in exchange for those groups’ efforts towards disarmament and demobilization. 

Next, the design of any future DDR and peace process will have to ensure that the security sector is reformed in a way that it reflects the ethnic, religious, and regional makeup of the country not just in the rank-and-file but in command structures as well as civilian oversight positions. Especially as Myanmar’s population has gone through such a traumatic history with its security and defense sectors, such reforms will have an extremely important place in the design and structure of any future peace in Myanmar

(There will be much more added to this whole section, but I wanted to leave a space right now to show where I will be heading in the next section for next week’s final piece)

Women’s Participation in Myanmar’s Ethnic Armed Organizations and Their Prospects for Post-Conflict Reintegration

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Aid for Kachin, Not Just Kyiv

December 16, 2022

The month of February has dawned and a militaristic, authoritarian, aspiring despot has had enough. This leader of a revisionist, rogue state—who studied law before joining the security services and rising in its ranks—has decided that his enemies have gone too far and now pose too great a threat to the future security of his nation to be allowed to continue their perceived provocations. Moreover, the same autocrat, already fearful for his own safety due to a color revolution which took place over a decade ago, vows that he must defeat his enemies in order to protect what he feels are his real countrymen. Without a seeming care for international condemnation, he makes his move.

As military-led violence breaks out—quickly resulting in hundreds of civilian deaths—a civil resistance emerges, but the authoritarian strongman lays siege to targeted areas of the country in order prevent humanitarian convoys from reaching civilians in need, launches indiscriminate airstrikes on civilian population centers, arrests dissenters at home, and imposes a near total media blackout that impairs his own citizens from understanding the true nature of the catastrophic war that he has kicked off. 

But the war, after some early success, has not gone as well for the tyrants’ military as he had hoped it to. His forces have been unable to steamroll the opposition, as originally envisioned, and the conflict has now settled into a war of attrition, with neither side able to quickly obtain decisive victory. Now, forced to rely on a poorly trained, conscript-heavy military facing a morale crisis, fighting against a more ragged assembly of committed local defenders, there is growing evidence of war crimes being committed by his troops against both the opposition as well as the civilian populace. 

While most people would be excused for thinking that the above is simply a recap of events in Ukraine since this past February, it is in fact a description of the state of affairs in a country over 4,000 miles away, where similar forces have been at play as Myanmar’s military-led State Administrative Council (SAC) launched a February 2021 coup that has sparked a nationwide conflict that will determine the future democratic character of the country.

Despite the many similarities between the two situations, the differing levels of Western—and more specifically U.S.—interest in the plights of the Ukrainian and Burmese people could not be more striking. While the West has poured at least tens of billions into Ukraine to bolster the country’s military forces and to support its civilian population during the Russian invasion, the U.S. has, since last February’s coup, provided just $434 million in humanitarian assistance to vulnerable communities in Myanmar as well as to support refugees fleeing the conflict; though much of that includes support to Myanmar’s neighbors hosting Rohingya refugees from before the civil war broke out. Additionally, despite issuing sanctions on junta leader Min Aung Hlaing and others involved in the military takeover in Myanmar, the West has refrained from supplying arms to the opposition National Unity Government (NUG), whose, “pro-democracy fighters are out-gunned by an army equipped by Russia, China and India, which uses fighter jets to carry out bombing raids.” 

Despite the paucity of Western military aid, resistance forces have been making gains on the ground, inflicting more and more casualties on Sit-Tat forces in recent months. Furthermore, these anti-coup forces are achieving gains on the battlefield despite having to produce their own, homemade weapons instead of being able to use modern ones. As a result, acting President of the NUG, Duwa Lashi La has argued that, “if we had anti-aircraft weapons, safe to say that we could win in six months. If only we received the same support that Ukraine receives from the US and EU, the sufferings of the people who are being slaughtered would cease at once.”

However, while Western leaders have generally indicated that they would prefer the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to take on a stronger role in supporting a diplomatic resolution to the situation in Myanmar, the body has done little to advance the cause of peace, as its consensus-based nature has impeded efforts to get the junta to stop the violence and negotiate with the opposition. Tellingly, ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus on Myanmar was quickly repudiated by signatory Min Aung Hlaing—who treated the consensus as mere “suggestions” in a State Administration Council press release just days later—which has allowed the Myanmar Army to continue to commit atrocities with little pushback from what should be the responsible regional organization. 

Taken together, the state of affairs is one where the coup regime is faltering, but opposition forces may not have enough equipment to fully vanquish junta forces on the field. It is a situation where the West, and the U.S. in particular, could be doing much more to aid resistance forces in their heroic fight against a military that had grown fat over a half century of rule and whose high-ranking leadership has shown no signs of compromise with its fellow countrymen. 

It is therefore time for the United States to do more to reach out to the forces fighting the junta, aiding them not only militarily, but—perhaps even more importantly—providing them with assistance in negotiating the country’s prosperous, democratic, and federal future. But to do so, the U.S. must first understand where it can do the most good. 

Myanmar’s Alphabet Soup of Leadership: The NUG, NUCC, EAOs, and EROs

Despite resistance forces having achieved a certain degree of success on the battlefield, Myanmar’s junta is still a dangerous force to be reckoned with, with China and Russia both ramping up their support for the Sit-Tat and its leaders in recent months, as both countries take advantage of Western sanctions in a bid to strengthen ties with the coup leaders. While Russia is certainly more desperate for ideologically similar friends now that its invasion of Ukraine has gone pear-shaped, China’s support for the Myanmar military has been long-standing. Such backing speaks to long-term Chinese interest in certain strategic projects—like the port at Kyaukpyu that will connect China more directly to the Indian Ocean and reduce its strategic dependence on the Straits of Malacca—that make the Naypyidaw-Beijing relationship more enduring than one might initially think of a partnership between two countries with such different levels of economic and geopolitical heft.

While these relationships certainly do not render the Sit-Tat unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination, Chinese and Russian support does complicate the picture for Myanmar’s somewhat shakily held-together opposition. The opposition’s myriad rebel groups and ethnic armies—variously called Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) or Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (EROs)—along with the deposed ruling party, Aung San Suu Kyi’s the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the legislature-in-exile Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH)—came together in April of 2021 to form the National Unity Government (NUG). Ultimately, the NUG was launched in order to bring together the diverse rebel groups under the aegis of a unified government that aims to depose the junta as well as safeguard the people and the future, “federal democratic union,” that resistance forces are ultimately trying to establish. Before looking at the areas where the U.S. could aid Myanmar’s resistance forces, it is necessary to first understand the basic structure of these bodies, which will go a bit of the way toward illustrating the areas where the U.S. might want to provide assistance moving forward. 

As noted above, the resistance has come together in a remarkable manner, with the National Unity Government and the National Unity Consultative Council—which is appointed by the CRPH—the most striking examples of how the country’s resistance forces have coalesced into a somewhat unified whole. As mentioned, the NUG—which is composed of ethnic revolutionary organization representatives, members of the ruling National League for Democracy, and other prominent resistance leaders—includes leaders of the country’s Civil Disobedience Movement which has seen teachers, doctors, and ordinary Burmese take to the streets in protest against the military takeover as well as organize boycotts and strikes

The National Unity Government also consists of the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), which is, “composed of representatives from the NUG, the deposed elected legislature, human rights and civil society organizations, the Civil Disobedience Movement, activist networks, ethnic minority political parties and EROs,” and has a mandate to produce a governance framework for a post-junta Myanmar, including regional and state-level governance plans for a future, more federated country. 

While power-sharing between the Bamar-majority NLD and the various ethnic-based resistance organizations is somewhat unprecedented in the country’s history, a more devolved, federal-style, union has long been a key demand of most ethnic nationality political actors in the country. However, while the two coming to a broad agreement on a future federal democratic Myanmar would be heartening, there are many issues that remain between Myanmar’s ethnic resistance groups and a future where they control what goes on in their States. To understand where the U.S. can better assist the resistance—as well as to see where the potential barriers are to future power-sharing in the country—it is best to start with exactly what resistance means when it talks of a federal Myanmar.

Federalism in Myanmar: History and Current Interpretations

To understand the current desires of EAOs and EROs in Myanmar, one must first examine the country’s long and circuitous path towards a more devolved political power structure. In,“A New Look at Federalism in Myanmar,” by Chiang Mai University’s Ashley South, the author reviews the history of the path towards federalism in the country, with the first movements kicked off by the 1947 Panglong Conference and the resultant Panglong Agreement, which saw leaders of Kachin, Chin, and Shan communities agree to form an independent union after the British withdrawal from the country. More importantly for those leaders, the agreement would see the country’s ethnic minority “Frontier Areas” granted significant autonomy in matters of internal administration. While the Bamar majority tends to cite Panglong as a time when the country united against its colonial oppressors, South notes that ethnic factions tend to remember the moment for its promises of local decision making. Furthermore, when independence hero and mastermind of Panglong, General Aung San was assassinated in July of that year, the promise of self-government for Myanmar’s minority ethnicities seemed to die with him. 

Further complicating ethnic factions’ search for greater autonomy is Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Act, which made citizenship available to any person residing in the country prior to 1823, the year the British launched the first Anglo-Burmese War, and which came with a large influx of immigration from India and China. The law—which stakes out three separate categories of citizenship—was problematic for many families of various ethnic groups who lacked documentation to prove whether they had roots dating back that far. More egregiously, Section 3 of the Act lists only eight “national races” which were to receive full citizenship, while those with mixed ancestry were only eligible for “associate citizenship” or “naturalized citizenship”, with the legal rights of “associate” and “naturalized” citizens inferior to those of “full” citizens. 

Correspondingly, as was noted in a 2019 report by the International Commission of Jurists, while the 2008 Constitution seemingly aimed to resolve this conflict by stating that, “‘the Union shall guarantee any person [emphasis added] to enjoy equal rights before the law,’ other constitutional provisions conflict with this…by narrowly defining rights as being limited only to citizens.” Resultantly, those that are not “full” citizens still tend to experience varying degrees of discrimination throughout their lives; a troubling fact when one considers that non-Bamar communities make up at least 30% of the country’s population. 

An additional complicating factor in the country’s quest to devolve power from the Bamar-majority center to the more ethnically diverse periphery is the fact that, “in many parts of Myanmar, ethnic groups such as Karen and Shan coexist with smaller minority communities like the Mon, PaO, and Lahu,” which, “raises questions regarding locally dominant ethnic group identities and interests, and their relationship with such ‘minorities-within-minorities’.” Essentially, even if more powers were to be reserved to the States, those states will still have to grapple with their own issues of minority group empowerment. Therefore, any future federal political settlement in Myanmar must take into account the demands of those “minority-within-minority” ethnic subgroups, else any peace accord will just risk entrenching these same types of ethnic discrimination, just on a smaller and more local scale. 

To give a more concrete example, the Kachin people are, ethnolinguistically speaking, commonly divided into six subgroups, including Jinghpaw, Zaiwa, Lawngwaw [or Lhaovo], Lisu, Lachik [or Lachid] and Rawang-Nung. But, as the powerful Kachin Independence Organization—one of the largest ethnic armed organizations in the country—is dominated by Jinghpaw-speakers and Jinghpaw is taught at all KIO schools, a future peace agreement that provides autonomy for Kachin State must contain provisions safeguarding the rights of Lawngwaw, Lisu, Lachik and Rawang-Nung rights or else oppression will simply be carried out by Kachin-on-Kachin rather than Bamar-on-Kachin.

All of that having been said, it must be acknowledged that many of these ethnic armed organizations have managed to establish themselves as responsible governance actors in the territories that they control. As was remarked on in a May 2020 briefing from the International Crisis Group, while, “administrative capacity varies significantly among ethnic armed groups…the more established among them, such as the Karen National Union, United Wa State Army and Kachin Independence Organization, have well-developed governance structures that include health departments, known as ethnic health organizations,” which had been a real benefit as the country’s weak health system was unable to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. What’s more, as was noted in a 2016 report from the Asia Foundation’s Brian McCartan and Kim Jolliffe, while, “a great deal needs to be done by government and [ethnic armed actors] to ensure law enforcement and judicial processes are just, equitable, and legitimate,” these, “village and village-based justice mechanisms, are the glue that provides stability and order for most civilians in these areas.” 

These ethnic armed organizations have also assumed another state-level responsibility in terms of education. For example, the Karen National Union has organized the Karen Education and Culture Department to oversee primary and secondary education in areas under their control. The department consists of senior management teams, a main administrative body (Bureau of the Secretary), and a Bureau of Basic Education overseeing curriculum development, the training of teachers, and Mother Tongue-Based Multilingual Education (MTB-MLE), which produces mother tongue-based textbooks and learning materials for primary school levels. Not only are these schools now some of the only ones currently operating due to the coup and the resultant teacher walkout in support of the Civil Disobedience Movement, but their functioning demonstrates an ability of the ethnic armed organizations to assume these vital state responsibilities once the junta has been defeated and a peace agreement is signed between the resistance parties and the junta. But, as Ashley South notes, a key issue that will need to be resolved when determining the future federal structure of the country is to coordinate sub-national education and union-level education standards, which will require state and federal coordination and Union-level accreditation of Ethnic Basic Education Provider teachers. 

Karen Education and Culture Department Map of Institute of Higher Education Schools/Source: https://kecdktl.org/what-we-do/

Ultimately, these groups’ varying levels of experience in providing services to civilians living in the areas that they control form the basic building blocks of a “bottom-up” form of federalism, with those competencies established at the local level demonstrating ethnic resistance groups’ relative fitness to lead more autonomous states in the future. However, as South notes, one area that must be addressed is that in larger areas of more mixed administration—where authority is shared amongst more than one armed group and/or the government—civilian communities often experience unjust multiple taxation by these groups.

The Road to a Future Federal Democratic Myanmar: The Federal Democracy Charter

To start a process towards resolving some of these aforementioned issues, on March 31, 2021, the CRPH released its Federal Democracy Charter (FDC), which contained commitments towards eradicating the dictatorship, abolishing the 2008 Constitution, and building a Federal Democratic Union. In accordance with the Charter, the resistance’s National Unity Government was formed in April 2021 and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) were established in May, with a war of self-defense officially launched against the military in September of that year. Later that year, the National Unity Consultative Council revised the Charter—elaborating more on the norms and principles for the founding of the federal union and on citizens’ future rights—and it was approved by the People’s Assembly in January 2022. 

The Charter was created due to the fact that the 2008 Constitution was unlawfully used by the junta to seize power, making use of Article 417’s provisions regarding the declaration of a state of emergency. Nevertheless, the Charter is not, in itself, either an interim constitution or a permanent one to be used once the fighting has stopped. Still , as it is the only document negotiated between the various EAOs/EROs, the CDM, and existing ethnic political parties, it, “functions as the offer of the terms for this alliance,” with, “the offer of terms…made in the form of a constitutional instrument to publicly bind the NLD to credible commitments in pursuing longstanding ethnic group demands for greater autonomy and a highly decentralized form of federalism, but also demands such as secularism, diversity and inclusion, human rights and women’s empowerment,” as was noted by a recent report by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). 

Part I of the Charter contains, “clear concessions to demands of EAOs, and includes many principles related to federalism, democracy and rights.” Moreover, “the revised Charter has seen significant further improvements in laying out citizen and democratic rights to be provided for in the future permanent constitution,” which includes, “inputs of the NUCC’s non-EAO discussants such as women’s and labour rights organizations.” However, it is open to future amendments, as well. 

As currently written, the Charter contains a twelve-step roadmap outlining the steps the resistance needs to take in order to arrive at a Federal Democratic Union. It includes supporting the CDM and others in eradicating the dictatorship; forming committees; developing a platform where allied political parties, EROs, civil society, and others can deliberate on political agreements; drafting and ratifying the Federal Democracy Charter; forming an interim NUG and legislative and judiciary institutions; calling a People’s Assembly; developing a strategy to end the dictatorship and establish a federal democratic union; drafting a Transitional Constitution; form a Transitional Government; drafting a Federal Democratic Constitution through convening a Constitutional Assembly; ratifying the Constitution; and forming legislative, executive, and judiciary bodies as per that new Federal Democratic Constitution.

While the Charter and its roadmap may appear to provide the legal framework to guide the resistance during its fight against the junta, the IDEA report notes that not only does the FDC not claim to act as an interim constitution for the country—but as the CRPH has declared the 2008 Constitution to be null and void—there currently exists a problematic constitutional vacuum in Myanmar, as the 2008 Constitution has been rendered defunct due to the actions of the military and the resultant declaration by the CRPH, and the Charter’s legal enforceability is somewhat questionable. 

While a full dive into the legal specificities of the Federal Democracy Charter are outside the purview of this analysis, there are a number of elements that must be highlighted in order to demonstrate the various issues that Myanmar’s resistance forces are going to have to overcome when attempting to formulate a future constitution for the country. For instance, Part I’s Chapter IV “Guiding principles for building a Federal Democracy Union” outline a future where all powers are divided between the central, federal government and constituent member states. Specifically, it notes that, “the original owner of all land and natural resources within a State is the people who live in the State,” and that, “the State shall have the right to independently manage the exploration, extraction, selling, trading, preservation, and protection etc. of the natural resources within the State.” 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, as has been noted by the Asia Foundation’s Thet Aung Lynn and Mari Oye in their policy brief, “Natural Resources and Subnational Governments in Myanmar: Key Considerations for Wealth Sharing,” from 2016, while, “supporters of decentralization argue that it can deliver important benefits in terms of responsiveness and effectiveness,” the, “evidence from other countries demonstrates that decentralization is very ‘risky and difficult in practice.’” Some of the key challenges that face EAOs as they transition to governing are that, “without strong, accountable subnational institutions, national environmental regulation, and fiscal management processes,” there are many risks that local governments will face, including a larger impact from commodity price volatility, especially if that commodity is one the state is highly dependent on. 

What’s more, as the Asia Foundation report points out, there are often problems when it comes to aligning the interest of politicians and local populations so that local governments do not proceed to issue as many resource extraction permits as possible in order to generate revenue,  while doing so at the expense of both the environment or the future local economy. Furthermore, local governments overseeing natural resource extraction are at increased risk of corruption absent robust monitoring capabilities and transparency requirements for all officials involved. Myanmar is also likely to run into issues if and when the natural resource distribution in the country results in what can be seen as an inequitable distribution of economic benefit to certain ethnic-majority states. If these issues are not resolved proactively, they will likely result in bitterness and resentment among populations that do not have access to such profitable ecological and geological bounty. 

Distribution of Extractive Industries in Myanmar/Source: https://resourcegovernance.org/sites/default/files/nrgi_sharing_Myanmar_Revenue-Sharing.pdf#page=22

Another area where the IDEA analysis shows the Charter as being weak is its section on judicial institutions, which is vague on judicial powers, and contains no mention of judicial review, “nor a clear provision for writs petitions or on standing before court, issues that are critical to human rights protection.”

When it comes to Part I of the FDC, the IDEA report opines that, “in their current form [Chapter 4’s guiding principles] still require significant elaboration,” a process that may prove contentious when discussing issues like the protection of the right to self-determination. Specifically, while the Charter pledges the creation of a Union were all citizens can live in peace and where, “democracy is exercised and equal rights and self-determination are guaranteed,” the document does little to define what it actually means by “self-determination”, which could be taken as a right to secession by groups like the Shan, Kachin, and Karenni/Kayah who had initially received this right in the 1947 Constitution. 

Part II of the FDC similarly has some of its own issues, including the fact that there is no formal mandate to include non-state actors such as the Civil Disobedience Movement, strike committees, or EROs in the interim legislature after peace with the junta is reached. Additionally, while Chapter 5 of the FDC, “reserves important powers to the CRPH to continue to act in its representative role and to enact Union level legislation, regulate the legislative process, form ‘support committees’ and appoint the President, Vice President and Cabinet (in agreement with the NUCC)”, the IDEA report states that, “the CRPH remains somehow outside the interim government arrangements provided by the Charter,” and that, “in general, there is little publicly known about the way the CRPH has been operating or will continue to operate in the future; it is also not clear what institutions or constitutional provisions define or in other ways constrain the CRPH, and in fact the initial version of the Charter suggested that the NUG is accountable to the CRPH, which also maintains effective final authority over NUG appointments.” 

Similarly, when it comes to the National Unity Consultative Council, “despite the new provisions included in the revised Charter, the mandate of the NUCC remains rather vague,” despite the body emerging as, “the highest interim standing political body of the interim institutions,” whose, “main role is to ‘provide policy guidance, oversight and coordination for the implementation of strategies stipulated by the Federal Democracy Charter.” Ultimately, therefore, it will be important to involve other actors such as strike committees and EROs in the transition process in order to ensure the process is truly inclusive and participatory. 

Ultimately, as the IDEA report concludes, while the Federal Democracy Charter promises to deliver the peace, equality, and justice that many in the country had been clamoring for over the past seven decades, “citizens must now be reassured that the interim institutions—the NUCC, the CRPH and the NUG—have an actual strategy to achieve this goal, while striving to provide as many services as possible to the people in the interim period.” In the end, the IDEA authors argue that, “international assistance providers should get full on board with this unique opportunity to reconstitute Myanmar in the ways that the people of Myanmar have been demanding since the onset of the Spring Revolution.” Such a statement hits the proverbial nail on the head.

Military and Democratization Support: How the U.S. Can Do More for Myanmar

Military Support

While ASEAN has continued to restrict junta leader Min Aung Hlaing from attending its summits, and the body has also continued to disinvite the junta’s appointed defense minister to an upcoming meeting of the body’s defense chiefs, it’s Five-Point Consensus—which called for an immediate cessation of violence and a return to constructive political dialogue amongst the parties—has seen its commitments completely disregarded by the junta, which has shown little interest in tamping down the violence. Indeed, while a reduction in the levels of violence and a return to dialogue are obviously the ideal end state for Myanmar’s conflict, it seems rather unlikely that there will be any way to persuade the SAC to lay down its arms and talk with the resistance forces anytime soon. 

As the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Michael F. Martin wrote earlier this month, Myanmar’s, “EAOs and PDFs [had been] perplexed by the incongruity between the U.S. willingness to provide vast amounts of weapons and aid to Syria and Ukraine, but none to the people of Myanmar fighting for freedom and democracy.” In addition, as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet stated back in January of this year, the international response has been, “ineffectual and lacks a sense of urgency commensurate to the magnitude of the crisis.” To that effect, Timor-Leste’s President, José Ramos-Horta, in September remarks before the UN General Assembly, argued that while Western countries, “started off on high moral ground in confronting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” they may still end up, “losing the support of the developing world,” with the leader of Timor-Leste further positing that, “the people of Myanmar feel abandoned, betrayed, by the so-called international community. They ask, why the difference in treatment, prompt and extremely generous support for Ukrainian civilians and refugees, so much sophisticated military support for Ukraine resistance, and such a mute reaction to the war waged against the people of Myanmar?”

As Martin further argues in his December commentary, “from their perspective, a relatively small amount of military assistance would be sufficient to defeat the SAC forces,” and that, “given their effective control over the bordering ethnic states, the EAOs and PDFs think that U.S. humanitarian aid should be provided in coordination with the EAOs and PDFs through local humanitarian assistance organizations, rather than the NUG or SAC—neither of which can safely deliver aid to those in need.” 

Despite the lack of a robust international response to Myanmar’s civil war, and the calls of ethnic political factions in the country for greater levels of American military and humanitarian assistance, the most recent U.S.-ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh in November— which saw the launch of a new U.S.-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership—saw little mention of the situation in Myanmar, with U.S. partnership with the Southeast Asian political and economic union more focused on things such as the U.S.-ASEAN Electric Vehicle Initiative and Digital Trade standards, amongst other issues. What’s more, the body’s statements referencing the situation in the country can hardly be called real action towards aiding a political settlement—as the junta has so far indicated it would ignore ASEAN’s resolutions and continue with plans to hold what will likely be sham elections in 2023. 

With the junta’s intransigence having already been made abundantly clear, and ASEAN’s fecklessness continuing to hold back a meaningful regional response to the crisis—a situation that has been called “disastrous” by the Council on Foreign Relations’ Joshua Kurlantzick and which is unlikely to change anytime soon—it is seemingly clear that it is time for the West to step up its efforts to aid Myanmar’s resistance forces both militarily and in their quest for a federal democratic Myanmar in the future. 

As the former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar Scot Marciel argued in a piece for the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) back in August, “the only way for Myanmar to emerge from this crisis with any hope of peace and stability is for the military to be forced out of power, or at least forced into a position of such weakness that it seeks a face-saving departure from power to preserve itself. There is no other path.” 

As Marciel further puts it, “those members of the international community who care about the Myanmar people—or at least want to see the country return to stability and the hope of progress—need to step back, rethink their approach and pursue much bolder policies that increase the resistance’s chance of success,” including efforts to: scrap ASEAN’s moribund Five-Point Consensus; increase public and private engagement with the NUG and other actors like EAOs and the CDM who are fighting the military; double the assistance to civil society organizations supporting these resistance groups; find ways to creatively fund the NUG and other allied groups, including funds aimed at encouraging junta military defections; expand opportunities for resistance actors in the U.S. and bolster funding for the education of Myanmar’s students in-country or in online schools based in Thailand or India; coordinate targeted sanctions by coup-opposing governments; have the U.S. reconsider rejoining EU sanctions on Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise; stop all humanitarian assistance that passes through the junta with the UN Secretary-General leading a campaign to create assistance corridors via Myanmar’s neighbors India and Thailand; redouble efforts to pursue international legal action at the International Court of Justice; and for countries that host NUG offices to step up their coordination and cooperation with the resistance government. 

But while Marciel’s suggestions do represent an excellent starting point for greater U.S. engagement with the resistance in Myanmar, they should be considered as supplementary to expanded, direct military assistance to the NUG, NUCC, and EAOs/EROs. As founder and Editor-in-Chief of Burmese news website the Irrawaddy, Aung Zaw, pointed out in an October 2022 commentary for his site, the junta has recently begun stepping up its aerial attacks on alleged resistance targets and the Washington Post has recently concurred with that assessment, noting in November that rights groups have claimed that, “over the past month, Myanmar’s military has deployed Russia-made Yak-130 jets and MI-35 helicopters across the country, dropping unguided, imprecise munitions that have killed dozens of people.” What’s more, as the aforementioned Washington Post report points out, “despite its losses in Ukraine, Russia has promised to follow through on arms deals signed before the coup in Myanmar, including for missile defense systems and fighter jets. It has also signed new agreements to provide Myanmar with oil and military training.” What’s more, the open-source intelligence firm Janes has recently noted that the Myanmar Air Force has further bolstered its capabilities by taking delivery of six Chinese FTC-2000G multirole advanced jet trainer/light attack aircraft.

With Russia now providing not only Yak-130 training planes, but the more modern Sukhoi Su-30 Flanker fighter jets, resistance forces in Myanmar need exactly the same thing that resistance forces in Ukraine needed in the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion: shoulder-fired Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS). As evidence of the equipment’s potential usefulness and desirability in the Myanmar battlespace, one merely needs to look at an April 2022 arrest made by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration on a Japanese organized crime leader and three Thai men who were trying to acquire surface-to-air missiles for Myanmar’s Karen National Union, Shan State Army, and the United Wa State Army. Similarly, in his October commentary, Aung Zaw notes that it is assumed that the Kachin Independence Army possess some MANPADs, along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, the Arakan Army, and the United Wa State Army, though they were likely procured illegally and through Wa-friendly interlocutors in China. 

While Ukraine’s efforts in fighting the thousands of Russian air assets deployed over their country had required the influx of well over 5,000 MANPADS in the first weeks of that conflict, efforts to combat the Sit-Tat’s Chinese and Russian fighters and other air assets will not require such a massive investment in resources. While the delivery of man-portable air defense systems will likely not single-handedly alter the course of the war, their provision can could at least cause the junta and its Air Force to rethink its air attacks that have seemingly been more a part of a strategy of mass terror than any kind of coherent military campaign, especially as aircraft are alleged to operate in isolation and not in tandem with forces on the ground. 

While there are legitimate risks of such equipment proliferating and ending up in the wrong hands following the conclusion of the civil war in Myanmar, it is likely too late to completely stop the influx of such weapons systems into the Myanmar conflict. By instead working directly with responsible groups on the ground such as the NUG and those ethnic armed organizations that need such equipment, the U.S. can help ensure that its partners on the ground meet any potential requirements regarding the tracking and future retention of any Western-provided air defense systems. If the U.S. were to provide such systems to Myanmar’s resistance—along with the training to use them in nearby countries such as India, Thailand, or Indonesia—it could dramatically shorten the duration of the conflict, resulting in thousands of civilian lives being saved.

Another—although admittedly more far-fetched—suggestion would be to impose a no-fly zone over much of the country, especially if the West was concerned about the possible proliferation of Western-provided portable air defense systems in the region after the war. A no-fly zone would be logistically and politically much more difficult to put together, not least because ASEAN intransigence on the Myanmar issue demonstrates a near-total lack of regional political commitment to oppose the junta on Myanmar’s neighbors’ part—including from non-member India

Despite these difficulties, there is an argument that can be made to the countries bordering Myanmar that, “instead of buttressing the faltering junta, [they] should instead understand the Sit-Tat’s role as Myanmar’s source of instability both in the past, and, to an unprecedented extent, going forward.” By the same token, the case can be made that, “an unrestrained junta will only spurt the further breakdown of stability in Myanmar, lead to spillover throughout the region, and contribute to the destabilization of international order,” as Ye Myo Hein and Lucas Myers wrote in an August 2022 article for the Wilson Center. What’s more, recent actions taken by the Sit-Tat, including a junta airstrike on a music concert attended by hundreds of civilians in Kachin state back in October that reportedly killed at least sixty people, have triggered renewed calls for the United States to step in and at least reinforce its arms embargo and restrict the flow of aviation fuel into the country. With the Malaysian Air Force allegedly diverting such fuel from civilian use to military use—and some of that fuel coming from the Russian firm Rosneft—a complete halt to Malaysian aviation fuel imports seems unlikely, rendering the imposition of a no-fly zone of greater and greater necessity.

That being said, it must be acknowledged that a no-fly zone will require a staging ground, preferably in one of Myanmar’s neighbors, with India as the likely best option given their advanced military capabilities compared to Vietnam or Thailand. Further complicating the situation is the fact that, while the Malaysian Air Force has less than fifty jet fighters to its name, a similar no-fly zone, established in the skies over Bosnia and Herzegovina during the UN Operation Deny Flight in the early 1990s required the launching of over 100,000 sorties conducted by over 100 fighters and reconnaissance aircraft launched from air bases in Italy and aircraft carriers in the Adriatic. 

Those difficulties notwithstanding, Myanmar’s neighbors ultimately cannot be happy with how things have proceeded since the military seized power in Naypyitaw. As was noted by elections management specialist Saket Ambarkhane and rights advocate Sanjay Valentine Gathia in a May 2022 commentary for the United States Institute of Peace, “the coup has significantly undermined India’s economic and security interests in Southeast Asia,” as, “the multi-dimensional civil war in Myanmar has made progress on India’s economic and logistics projects in the country, which are central to India’s Act East policy, all but impossible. Furthermore, fighting between Myanmar’s military and the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)…has brought intense conflict to the western and northwestern parts of Myanmar, which border India.” This conflict has resulted in an estimated 22,000 refugees fleeing into India to escape the crisis, and tens of thousands more are allegedly looking to cross but have been delayed due to COVID lockdowns. As a result, local Indian governments have been cracking down on the flow of refugees into the border state of Manipur earlier this summer to those refugees’ detriment. 

Just as pressing for India is the fact that as New Delhi sees renewed skirmishes with China along the disputed Himalayan border once again, its leadership cannot be happy with the prospects of China opening a port in Kyaukpyu that will allow it to bypass the energy choke point at the Strait of Malacca and even potentially—though currently unlikely—host Chinese naval vessels just 400 miles away from Indian territory, especially if conflict escalates between the two countries in the future. As former Chairman of India’s Joint Intelligence Committee and Deputy National Security Adviser S D Pradhan wrote in a recent opinion piece for the Times of India, “China has already established a military base in Djibouti and Gwadar in Pakistan and Hambantota are with China and they can be used for military purposes,” and, “in Myanmar, it has intensified its efforts to complete the Kyaukpyu port.” In Pradhan’s estimation, “for India…increasing Chinese influence operations are worrisome and China considers India as a rival in the Indian Ocean.” 

The rest of Myanmar’s Southeast Asian neighbors also face challenges caused by Myanmar’s civil war. According to an October 2022 report for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Thailand has had to absorb 6,401 Myanmar refugees in the ten months between January and October of this year, for a total of 92,000. That is on top of having to deal with an airspace violation by the Myanmar Air Force, who had a stray fighter on a bombing run cross over the Myanmar-Thai border and forcing Thai authorities to evacuate hundreds of schoolchildren and scramble their own jets in response. 

UNHCR Myanmar Refugee Map/Source: https://reporting.unhcr.org/document/3834

In addition, Bangladesh is already home to between 700,000 and 1 million refugees from Myanmar, the majority Rohingya fleeing from earlier persecution. As the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ (IISS) Aaron Connelly stated during an October event hosted by the IISS back in October titled “Conflict in Myanmar: Mapping its escalation and expansion,” that, when it comes to Min Aung Hlaing, “it’s clear that Beijing has reconciled itself to the existence of a military government in Myanmar. But they do seem unhappy with Min Aung Hlaing as the leader of that government,” though that is more of a clash between Beijing and someone who had earned their stripes fighting militias on the border that were often Chinese-supported. In all, each neighbor has at least some reason to accede to a Western no-fly zone that could restore order to the chaos brought by the junta’s February 2021 coup. 

While establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine was essentially a non-starter due to the fact that enforcement of the zone would likely force European and American pilots to shoot down Russian pilots, potentially escalating the war and bringing the U.S. and Russia in direct confrontation, that is not a consideration when contemplating how to keep the Malaysian Air Force on the ground. Furthermore, the imposition of a no-fly—while likely to be vetoed at the UN Security Council by Myanmar partners Russia and China—would still be able to be imposed through a UN General Assembly “Uniting for Peace Resolution”,  as was noted by international law professor Michael N. Schmitt in a March 2022 piece for the Lieber Institute at West Point. Such a resolution can be invoked if it is determined by the General Assembly that the Security Council has failed, “to discharge its responsibilities on behalf of all the Member States.” If the Security Council, “because of lack of unanimity of the permanent members, fails to exercise its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security…the General Assembly shall consider the matter immediately with a view to making appropriate recommendations to Members for collective measures, including in the case of a breach of the peace or act of aggression the use of armed force when necessary, to maintain or restore international peace and security.” 

While there are potential sovereignty concerns involved with imposing a no-fly zone over a country that has not requested one, Myanmar’s current representative to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun—whose status the UN credentials committee upheld this week despite junta protestations—could provide the National Unity Government’s permission, skirting around that potentially thorny legal issue. 

Democratization Support

As the International Crisis Group’s October 2022 report, “The Deadly Stalemate in Post-coup Myanmar,” correctly points out, “with both sides dug in, but neither seemingly strong enough to defeat the other for good, a deadly stalemate has emerged in Myanmar that will likely to continue for many months.” As a result, “the country is suffering severe economic decline, runaway poverty and food insecurity, and terrible strain upon the health system amid a wave of COVID-19 infections.” While military support—whether in the form of direct military aid to resistance organizations or the imposition of a military no-fly zone over most of the country in order to stop the Sit-Tat from carrying out its brutal “pacification program”—is likely the only way to break the stalemate and usher the war to a conclusion anytime in the immediate future, it is not the only way that the U.S. or European Union could be aiding Myanmar’s resistance forces. 

While military options are the ones most likely to end the stalemate, they are not the only thing that Myanmar’s Western partners should be considering. As the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Gregory B. Poling argued in August, with the National Unity Consultative Council process succeeding and the NUG showing signs of transitioning into an actually inclusive opposition government with support from most EAOs in the country, the U.S. should therefore extend diplomatic recognition to the NUG as the country’s legitimate representatives. Such a move would allow the NUG to access the over $1 billion in government funds held in the U.S. Federal Reserve, which would permit the NUG and EAOs to improve and expand service delivery in their areas of Myanmar. Such recognition should also be accompanied by a strong push from the U.S. and its European partners for Myanmar to be permitted to participate in both regional and international governmental forums such as the World Health Organization

While there are some concerns that the U.S. would not want to alter its policy of recognizing countries rather than particular governments, as Joshua Keating contended in a piece for Foreign Policy back in 2010, this has not always been the case, with Keating specifically pointing to the fact that, “for years, the Untied States recognized the anti-communist government in Taipei as the legitimate government of China.” While the NUG has opened up a liaison office in Washington just last month—which will enable better outreach to the Burmese community in the United States and has already been done in other countries such as Australia and South Korea—Myanmar’s shadow government urgently needs the financial access that official international recognition would bring with it.

The United States should also consider the provision of democratization assistance to Myanmar’s National Unity Government and those EAOs that provide services and governance to civilians living in areas under their control. As a future democratic Myanmar is likely to be more federal in nature, everyone involved could benefit from work with outside experts in formulating and bringing to life a more democratic federal Myanmar in the future. This could involve connecting those members of EAOs who are to be future state administrators with outside think-tanks and experts to provide technical guidance on the transition from more centralized rule from Naypyitaw. Or it could mean a greater Western commitment to provide funding to support such a transition in the future, with the US Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Sajhedari-Bikaas partnership in Nepal—which will be discussed in more detail below—serving as a useful framework for supporting better transparency, accountability, and responsiveness at the local governance level. 

Ultimately, even if Myanmar’s resistance forces were somehow able to defeat the Sit-Tat in the field tomorrow, there is little guarantee that such a victory would immediately result in a peaceful, federal, democratic Myanmar in its aftermath. As Ashley South writes, “for ethnic nationality elites and communities, self-determination through federalism is a necessary prerequisite of democratization.” 

Therefore, to avoid having the same systems of oppression that the Bamar used against Myanmar’s ethnic minorities in the past Constitution insinuate themselves into the next one, it will be important that any future constitutional document which emerges out of the Federal Democracy Charter process contains robust guaranteed freedoms for not only ethnic minorities, but minority-within-minority ethnic subgroups as well. This will likely involve some kind of outside intervention or mediation to ensure that these sub-groups are accurately and proportionately represented in any future Constitution. Especially important will be provisions to guarantee the rights and safety of Myanmar’s Rohingya population, who have been subject to decades of disenfranchisement and persecution by not only the junta, but Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy as well. 

Moreover, as South writes in his paper examining federalism’s past and future in Myanmar, the country’s various EROs, “face challenges in establishing themselves as responsible governance actors,” because, “although they enjoy significant legitimacy among the communities they seek to represent, the political credibility of EROs also needs to be demonstrated through responsible natural resource and environmental governance.” Even if these future state-level governments do manage to pledge their commitments to protecting ethnic minorities within their state, those future governments will be faced with a number of technical governance challenges that are far more complex than issues of service provision that they have managed to deal with so far. 

While many figures in Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy may have experience in administering natural resources development, international finance, or dispute arbitration, it is unlikely that a similar number of individuals from the ethnic resistance will have the same levels of administrative capacity as the Bamar-majority party’s members. While groups like the KNU have demonstrated a certain level of proficiency in administering mother-tongue based multilingual education school systems, more complex functions such as managing a state’s finite supply of natural resources is on a whole different level of complexity due to the likelihood of international financial involvement in the extraction of those resources. 

What Myanmar’s resistance forces need in the long-term—in addition to more technical capacity—is assistance in making the compromises necessary to achieve a real devolution of power from the central authorities in Naypyitaw to Myanmar’s seven or more future states without risking the potential breakup of the country through secession movements by those states. 

That said, there are existing avenues for Western interlocutors to work with resistance forces in achieving these goals. As Billy Ford and Ye Myo Hein wrote earlier this month in a piece for the USIP, “as resistance forces have gained ground against the junta, they have established new governance structures at the state and local levels. These institutions take various forms, but in places like Karenni (Karenni State Consultative Council) and Chin States (Interim Chin Consultative Council) they have become important platforms for various actors, civilian and armed, to discuss governance issues.” In the end, the authors write, “the dialogues not only offer opportunit[ies] for confidence building, but they are also experiments in decentralized, federal governance that could be a model for the future.

Ultimately, as the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance’s “Myanmar’s Federal Democracy Charter: Analysis and Prospects,” points out, the Federal Democracy Charter, “still functions as the offer of the terms for [the] alliance,” between EROs, the CDM, and the NUG, so its essential terms will need to be made good on, or else the entire alliance could fall apart. Therefore, outside groups like the United States Institute of Peace, the International Crisis Group, or other international conflict resolutions experts could be brought in to aid the resistance in, “undertaking a series of bilateral dialogues to elicit deeper understanding of the core principles, values, and interest of the various resistance groups, particularly those outside of the NUCC whose perspectives are not represented in the Federal Democracy Charter,” as the USIP commentary notes. Furthermore, the same commentary also suggests that these groups could use assistance in working, “toward agreement on principles and values foundational to a future national dialogue process,” on the country’s future. 

A Sajhedari-Bikaas Program for Myanmar

As Lauren Keevil of the global NGO Pact once wrote about a different conflict less than a thousand miles away, in the last decade, “after 240 years of a monarchy, a devastating civil war, nearly a decade of transitional government, and 11 years of wrestling to build a devolved system of government,” Nepal’s assembly promulgated a new constitution in 2015. Likewise, as a 2020 Asia Foundation report on, “Nepal’s Constitution and Federalism: Vision and Implementation,” argues, the 2015, “constitution restructured Nepal into a federal republic.” Despite this, Nepal’s path toward inclusive governance and decentralization quickly stalled as controversy over revenue sharing threatened to once again divide the country. 

To help resolve some of these quandaries and aid Nepal in its quest towards a more peaceful, democratic future, the United States announced in 2013 the creation of what USAID originally called the Sajhedari Bikaas – Partnership for Local Development, but is now simply called the Sajhedari-Support to Federalism program, a $14.6 million program now run by Abt Associates to aid the Government of Nepal in its transition to the new federal system. According to USAID, “the Activity empowers local governments, civil society and the Nepali people in 10 municipalities of Province 5 and Sudurpaschim Province (Province 7) to institutionalize effective, accountable, transparent, responsive and inclusive local governance systems and practices,” with support to the government of Nepal to, “consolidate local evidences to inform policy research and formulation at the federal level and to incorporate these best practices for learning and policy development across the country.” 

While the work in Nepal is still ongoing, the Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2022 country report notes that, “After the 2015 earthquakes and successful national-level elections, Nepal has steadily implemented federalism and achieved economic progress,” though it does concede that while, “federalism is starting to improve the provision of public goods in rural areas,” that, “this has not been achieved equally across all states,” meaning that there is more work still to be done. 

In the end, however, the Sajhedari-Support to Federalism project, run by USAID, would be an excellent jumping-off point for formulating a similar program in Myanmar following the peaceful resolution of the conflict. As the Asia Foundation’s Namit Wagley writes in a March 2022 piece for their InAsia podcast website, Nepal’s, “elections in 2017 installed 753 newly created local governments, seven new provincial governments, and a newly configured national government,” which was quickly overwhelmed. Yet, “as local governments have become more organized and assertive, the need for cooperation between the federal, provincial, and local levels of government has only increased.” 

While Myanmar is likely in for a rather large shock to the system in any future transition from military rule, it should hopefully be able to avoid some of these aforementioned pitfalls, as several EAOs throughout Myanmar possess a long history of providing governance in areas under their control. As Ashley South remarks in his report, EROs such as the the Karen National Union, the New Mon State Party, along with the Kachin Independence Organization, the Restoration Council of Shan State, the Karenni National Progressive Party, the United Wa State Army, and increasingly the Arakan Army, “have established…impressive governance administration and service delivery systems,” which are the, “building blocks of federalism, from the bottom-up.” With these groups already having a trove of prior experience delivering services, a Western-led support project to assist Myanmar’s future path towards federalism may even be more effective than the U.S. program in Nepal has been.  

While such a project is unlikely to resolve calls from ethnic groups for their own armed forces in a future federated Myanmar, a demand that goes back to the Burma Act of 1935 and the British promises of autonomy for Myanmar’s “Frontier Areas”, it will at least attempt to provide some technocratic solutions to other, less historically-resonant demands from Myanmar’s various ethnic groups. 

Other Ways to Help

Outside of the avenues mentioned above, the U.S. should also consider providing more assistance to Myanmar’s refugees currently living in Bangladesh, India, and Thailand as well as stepping up aid to the estimated 1.47 million internally displaced persons within Myanmar as of December 5th. As of November, the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees had noted that Myanmar had only received 72% towards the $56.8 million required to support these refugees, with the U.S. providing just $16 million towards that goal. Moreover, according to USAID’s ForeignAssistance.gov website, the U.S. has provided Myanmar with just $92 million in total humanitarian assistance for 2021 and 2022. 

UNHCR Myanmar Emergency Update Displacement Figures (as of December 5, 2022)/Source: https://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/myanmar-emergency-update-5-december-2022

When looking at a total USAID budget request of $27.7 billion for 2022—coupled with the fact that Ukraine has seen the U.S. provide over $1.5 billion in humanitarian assistance alone to support conflict-affected people inside Ukraine and those fleeing to neighboring countries—the amount provided to Myanmar is not only not enough, it is simply a disgrace. With 6.5 million internally displaced persons dispersed across Ukraine and another 7.9 million scattered throughout Europe, Ukraine’s IDP crisis may be ten times as large as Myanmar’s, but amazingly the country has received over one hundred times—coming up on $100 billion—what Myanmar received in total assistance in 2022. 

While a reasonable argument can be made that Ukraine is in Europe and thus the U.S. has a greater strategic and economic interest in preventing the spillover of the Russian war from impacting on the lives and livelihoods of those living in European partner countries, such justifications must ring terribly hollow to allies—and potential allies—in Asia and Africa who must view the disparity in American assistance as yet another instance of the United States providing  the greatest levels of aid to the countries that are full of white people. Though such aid disparities are not likely racially motivated on the part of the Biden administration, it could raise legitimate questions in the eyes of other current and potential future American partners. 

Relatedly, according to UNHCR data, in 2021, a total of 624 people fled to the U.S. from Myanmar, with just 131 of those permitted to stay. This stands in stark contrast to the White House’s March announcement that the U.S. will open its doors to up to 100,000 Ukrainians fleeing Russian aggression, including through the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program. Going forward, the United States must up its quota on admissions from those fleeing junta violence in Myanmar, in addition to increasing support to the Rohingya minority in Myanmar who had already been subject to persecution in that country for decades. 

Conclusion

Map of Myanmar with Proposed CMEC Road/Rail Link/Source: https://icg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/305-commerce-and-conflict-myanmar-china%20%281%29_0.pdf#page=39

Put quite simply, the United States should—and does—retain a strong interest in Myanmar’s democratic future, as it would help prevent the country from falling more directly into China’s orbit, disrupting its plans for a China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and a deep-water port on the Bay of Bengal that allows it to circumvent its “Malacca Dilemma” and the resultant maritime insecurity it causes Beijing. While the U.S. has less reason to worry about Myanmar tying itself too tightly to Moscow due to its costly invasion of Ukraine, there are still concerns that the two might continue to develop their bilateral ties if somehow Russia emerges from the war in Ukraine with some excess equipment, funding, and attention. But more simply, the U.S. has a moral responsibility to ensure that its assistance does not only reach countries in Europe whose people look sufficiently similar to white Americans. 

Myanmar’s various resistance parties have done a remarkable job over the past two years to not only bring the fight to the junta, but to come together and work toward forming an inclusive opposition government with the support of most major ethnic armed organizations in the country. Despite this, it has not been enough to permit the resistance to gain a decisive advantage over the junta’s forces, meaning that the war could likely settle into a long-term stalemate, which would represent, “a minor victory for the junta and a setback for all those who hope to see a stable and democratic Myanmar,” as the Australian National University’s Crawford School of Public Policy’s Nicola Williams claimed in October in a commentary for the Texas National Security Review’s War on the Rocks blog. 

While the National Unity Consultative Council and Myanmar’s National Unity Government have made great strides since the February 2021 coup, they still are not entirely representative of all of Myanmar’s 135 diverse ethnicities and any future Constitution promulgated or government formulated by such a body will likely carry with it questions about representation and whether it will confer the same rights on minority-within-minority populations inside Myanmar’s future federal states.  

In the end, Myanmar needs outside assistance from democratic partners in Asia, Europe, and North America in order to achieve the best possible future for the country and its people. Such aid will likely involve military aid to help defeat the junta on the battlefield, assistance towards creating a functional Constitution and equitable federal democratic structure for Myanmar, and development assistance to help Myanmar’s ethnic resistance organizations transition into competent state administrators in their future, more autonomous, territories. 

As former President Barack Obama said during the first trip of an American president to Myanmar back in 2012, Myanmar’s success in its efforts to become a more democratic country, “is important to the United States.” The former President continued that, “even though we come from different places, we share common dreams: to choose our leaders; to live together in peace; to get an education and make a good living; to love our families and our communities.” Obama went on to say that on the country’s continued journey towards democracy, “America will support you every step of the way—by using our assistance to empower civil society; by engaging your military to promote professionalism and human rights; and by partnering with you as you connect your progress towards democracy with economic development.”

It is time that the United States makes good on its lofty rhetoric and does more to aid Myanmar’s resistance groups who are struggling to form a country where the will of the people is what matters and not the only the will of a Bamar Buddhist gerontocracy propped up by the iron grip of a military with too much constitutionally-mandated power. Myanmar may be over half a world away from American shores, but its people, struggling to throw off the yoke of oppressive military rule, should be as close to American hearts as the brave men and women fighting Russian forces in Ukraine. While it is certainly possible that Myanmar’s resistance is able to defeat the junta without Western aid, it will assuredly need outside assistance in rebuilding the country and transitioning to a more federal democratic structure. When considering the amount of American aid that has already been sent to Ukraine—with a lot more likely to come if and when it manages to push Russian forces completely out of the country and negotiate a peace agreement—it would be a moral travesty if the United States did not step up its engagement with and assistance to the people of Myanmar while they are fighting for the same right to freedom and self-determination that the people of Ukraine are.

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Aid for Kachin, Not Just Kyiv (Draft)

December 9, 2022

Author’s Note: Due to a new workflow that seems to be working well, I will, going forward, only be publishing on a bi-weekly basis. Therefore, what follows is merely the first part of a new paper that I will publish the rest of on 12/16. In the meantime, please feel free to read what has been written so far and leave a comment below if you are so inclined.

The month of February has dawned and the militaristic, authoritarian, aspiring despot has had enough. The leader—who studied law before joining the security services and rising in its ranks—has decided that his enemies have gone too far and now pose too great a threat to the future security of his nation. Moreover, the same leader, already fearful for his own safety due to a color revolution which took place over a decade ago, vows that he must defeat his enemies in order to return true democracy to the area. 

As violence breaks out and a resultant civil resistance emerges, the authoritarian leader lays siege to prevent humanitarian convoys from reaching civilians in need, launches indiscriminate airstrikes on civilian population centers, arrests dissenters at home, and imposes a near total media blackout that impairs his own citizens from understanding the true nature of the catastrophic war that he has launched.

However, the war, after some early success, has not gone as well for the leaders’ military as he had originally foreseen. His forces have been unable to quickly vanquish the opposition as originally envisioned, and the war has now settled into a war of attrition, with neither side able to quickly obtain decisive victory. Now, forced to rely on a poorly trained, conscript-heavy, military with low morale, fighting against a more ragged assembly of local defenders, there is growing evidence of war crimes being committed by his troops against the opposition and the civilian populace. 

While most people would be excused for thinking that this is simply a description of events in Ukraine since this past February, it is in fact a description of events over 4,000 miles away in Myanmar, where similar forces have been at play as Myanmar’s military-led State Administrative Council launched a February 2021 coup that has sparked a nationwide conflict over the future democratic nature of the country. 

However, despite the many similarities between the two situations, the relative levels of Western interest in the plights of the Ukrainian and Burmese people could not be more striking. While the West has poured tens of billions into the country to bolster Ukraine’s military and to support its civilian population during the Russian invasion, since the coup, the U.S. has provided just $434 million in humanitarian assistance to vulnerable communities in Myanmar as well as to support refugees fleeing the conflict. Moreover, despite issuing sanctions on junta leader Min Aung Hlaing and others involved in the military takeover in Myanmar, the West has refrained from supplying arms to the opposition National Unity Government (NUG), whose, “pro-democracy fighters are out-gunned by an army equipped by Russia, China and India, which uses fighter jets to carry out bombing raids.” 

Despite the paucity of Western military aid, resistance forces have been making gains on the ground, inflicting more and more casualties on Sit-Tat forces in recent months. Furthermore, these anti-coup forces are achieving gains on the battlefield despite having to produce their own, homemade weapons instead of being able to use modern ones. As a result, acting President of the NUG, Duwa Lashi La has argued that, “if we had anti-aircraft weapons, safe to say that we could win in six months. If only we received the same support that Ukraine receives from the US and EU, the sufferings of the people who are being slaughtered would cease at once.”

While Western leaders have generally indicated that they would prefer the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to take on a stronger role in supporting a diplomatic resolution to the situation, the body has done little to advance the cause of peace, as its consensus-based nature has impeded efforts to get the junta to stop the violence and negotiate with the opposition. Tellingly, ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus was quickly repudiated by signatory Min Aung Hlaing—treating the consensus as mere “suggestions” in a State Administration Council press release just days later—which has allowed the Myanmar Army to continue to commit atrocities with little pushback from what should be the responsible regional organization. 

Taken together, the state of affairs is one where the coup regime is faltering, but opposition forces may not have enough equipment to fully vanquish junta forces on the field. It is a situation where the West, and the U.S. in particular, could be doing much more to aid resistance forces in their heroic fight against a military that had grown fat over a half century of rule and whose high-ranking leadership has shown no signs of compromise with its fellow countrymen. 

It is therefore time for the United States to do more to reach out to the forces fighting the junta, aiding them not only militarily, but—perhaps even more importantly—providing them with assistance in negotiating the country’s prosperous, democratic, and federal future. But to do so, the U.S. must first understand where in the process it can do the most good. 

Myanmar’s Alphabet Soup of Leadership: The NUG, NUCC, EAOs, EROs, PABs, and PDFs

Despite the opposition having achieved a certain degree of success on the battlefield, Myanmar’s junta is still a dangerous force to be reckoned with, with China and Russia both ramping up support for the Sit-Tat and its leaders in recent months, as both countries take advantage of Western sanctions in a bid to strengthen ties with the coup leaders. While Russia is certainly more desperate for friends now that its invasion of Ukraine has gone pear-shaped, China’s support for the military has been long standing and speaks to long-term Chinese interest in certain strategic projects—like the port at Kyaukpyu that will connect China more directly to the Indian Ocean and reduce its strategic dependence on the Straits of Malacca—that make the Naypyidaw-Beijing relationship more enduring than one might initially think of a partnership between two countries that are so economically unequal. 

While these relationships certainly do not render the Sit-Tat unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination, Chinese and Russian support does complicate the picture for Myanmar’s somewhat shakily held-together opposition. The opposition’s myriad rebel groups and ethnic armies—variously called Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) or Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (EROs)—along with the deposed ruling party, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the legislature-in-exile Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), came together in April of 2021 to form the National Unity Government (NUG). The NUG was launched in order to bring together the diverse rebel groups under the aegis of a single government that aims to depose the junta as well as safeguard the people and the future, “federal democratic union,” that they are ultimately trying to establish. 

Before looking at the areas where the U.S. could aid Myanmar’s resistance forces, it is necessary to first understand a bit about the structure of these forces, which will go a bit of the way toward illustrating the areas where the U.S. might want to provide future assistance. To begin, as noted above, the resistance has come together in a remarkable manner, with the National Unity Government and the National Unity Consultative Council—appointed by the CRPH—the most striking examples of how the country’s resistance forces have coalesced into a (somewhat) unified whole. As mentioned, the NUG—which is composed of ethnic revolutionary organization representatives, members of the ruling National League for Democracy, and other prominent resistance leaders—includes leaders of the country’s Civil Disobedience Movement which has seen teachers, doctors, and ordinary Burmese protest against the military takeover. 

The National Unity Government also consists of the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), which is, “composed of representatives from the NUG, the deposed elected legislature, human rights and civil society organizations, the Civil Disobedience Movement, activist networks, ethnic minority political parties and EROs,” with a mandate to produce a governance framework for a post-junta Myanmar, including regional and state-level governance plans for a future, more federated country. 

While such power-sharing between the Bamar-majority NLD and the various ethnic-based resistance organizations is somewhat unprecedented in the country’s history, a more devolved, federal-style, union has long been a key demand of most ethnic nationality political actors in the country. However, while broad agreement on a future federal democratic Myanmar is heartening, there are many issues that remain between Myanmar’s ethnic resistance groups and a future where they control what goes on in their States. To understand where the U.S. can aid the resistance—as well as to see where the potential barriers are to future power-sharing in the country—it is best to start with exactly what resistance means when it talks of a federal Myanmar.

Federalism in Myanmar: History and Current Interpretations Thereof

To understand the current desires of EAOs and EROs in Myanmar, one must first examine the country’s long and circuitous path towards a more devolved political power structure. In,“A New Look at Federalism in Myanmar,” by Chiang Mai University’s Ashley South, the author reviews the history of the path towards federalism in the country, with the first movements kicked off by the 1947 Panglong Conference and the resultant Panglong Agreement, which saw leaders of Kachin, Chin, and Shan communities agree to form an independent union after the withdrawal of the British. Moreover, the agreement would see the country’s ethnic minority “Frontier Areas” granted significant autonomy in matters of internal administration. While the Bamar majority tends to cite Panglong as a time when the country united against its colonial oppressors, South notes that ethnic factions tend to remember the moment for its promises of local decision making. Furthermore, when independence hero and mastermind of Panglong, General Aung San was assassinated in July of that year, the promise of self-government seemed to die with him. 

Further complicating ethnic factions’ search for greater autonomy is Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Act, which made citizenship available to any person residing in the country prior to 1823, the year the British launched the first Anglo-Burmese War, and which came with a large influx of immigration from India and China. The law—which delineates three separate categories of citizenship—was problematic for many families of various ethnic groups who lacked documentation to prove whether they had roots dating back that far. More egregiously, Section 3 of the Act lists only eight “national races” which were to receive full citizenship, while those with mixed ancestry were only eligible for “associate citizenship” or “naturalized citizenship”, with the legal rights of “associate” and “naturalized” citizens inferior to those of “full” citizens. 

Correspondingly, as was noted in a 2019 report by the International Commission of Jurists, while the 2008 Constitution seemingly aimed to resolve this conflict by stating that, “‘The Union shall guarantee any person [emphasis added] to enjoy equal rights before the law,’ other constitutional provisions conflict with this…by narrowly defining rights as being limited only to citizens.” Resultantly, those that are not “full” citizens still tend to experience varying degrees of discrimination throughout their lives; a troubling fact when one considers that non-Bamar communities make up at least 30% of the country’s population. 

An additional complicating factor in the country’s quest to devolve power from the Bamar-majority center to the more ethnically diverse periphery is the fact that, “in many parts of Myanmar, ethnic groups such as Karen and Shan coexist with smaller minority communities like the Mon, PaO, and Lahu,” which, “raises questions regarding locally dominant ethnic group identities and interests, and their relationship with such ‘minorities-within-minorities’.” Essentially, even if power were to be diffused to the States, those states will still have to grapple with issues of ethnic group empowerment, themselves. Therefore, any future federal political settlement must take into account the demands of those “minority-within-minority” ethnic subgroups, else any peace accord will just risk calcifying these same types of ethnic discrimination, just on a smaller and more local scale. 

To give a more concrete example, the Kachin people are, ethnolinguistically speaking, commonly divided into six subgroups, including Jinghpaw, Zaiwa, Lawngwaw [or Lhaovo], Lisu, Lachik [or Lachid] and Rawang-Nung. Therefore, as the powerful Kachin Independence Organization—one of the largest ethnic armed organizations in the country—is dominated by Jinghpaw and Jinghpaw is taught at all KIO schools, a future peace agreement that provides autonomy for Kachin State must contain provisions safeguarding the rights of Lawngwaw, Lisu, Lachik and Rawang-Nung rights or else oppression will simply be carried out by Kachin-on-Kachin rather than Bamar-on-Kachin. 

All of that being said, it must be acknowledged that many of these ethnic armed organizations have managed to establish themselves as responsible governance actors in the territories that they control. As was remarked on in a May 2020 briefing from the International Crisis Group, while, “administrative capacity varies significantly among ethnic armed groups…the more established among them, such as the Karen National Union, United Wa State Army and Kachin Independence Organization, have well-developed governance structures that include health departments, known as ethnic health organizations,” which had been a real benefit as the country’s weak health system was unable to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, as was noted in a 2016 report from the Asia Foundation’s Brian McCartan and Kim Jolliffe, while, “a great deal needs to be done by government and [ethnic armed actors] to ensure law enforcement and judicial processes are just, equitable, and legitimate,” these, “village and village-based justice mechanisms, are the glue that provides stability and order for most civilians in these areas.” 

Finally, these ethnic armed organizations have also assumed another state-level responsibility in education. For example, the Karen National Union has organized the Karen Education and Culture Department to oversee primary and secondary education in areas under their control. The body consists of senior management teams, a main administrative body (Bureau of the Secretary), a Bureau of Basic Education overseeing curriculum development, training of teachers, and Mother Tongue-Based Multilingual Education (MTB-MLE) which produces mother tongue-based textbooks and learning materials for primary school levels. Not only are these schools now the only ones currently operating due to the coup and the resultant teacher walkout in support of the Civil Disobedience Movement, but their functioning demonstrates an ability of the ethnic armed organizations to assume these vital state responsibilities once the junta has been defeated and a peace agreement is signed between the resistance parties on a federal democratic Myanmar. However, as South notes, a key issue that will need to be resolved in any future federal structure of the country is to coordinate sub-national education and union-level education standards, which will require Union-level accreditation of Ethnic Basic Education Provider teachers. 

Ultimately, these groups’ various levels of experience in providing services to civilians living in the areas that they control form the basic building blocks of a “bottom-up” form of federalism, with competencies established at the local level demonstrating these individual ethnic groups’ relative fitness to lead a future, more autonomous state. However, as South notes, one area that must be addressed is that in larger areas of more mixed administration—where authority is shared amongst more than one armed group and/or the government—civilian communities often experience unjust multiple taxation by these groups.

The Road to a Future Federal Myanmar: The Federal Democracy Charter

In an attempt to begin to resolve some of these issues, on March 31, 2021, the CRPH released its Federal Democracy Charter (FDC), which contained commitments towards eradicating the dictatorship, abolishing the 2008 Constitution, building a Federal Democracy Union, and the emergence of public government in the country. In accordance with the Charter, the National Unity Government was formed in April 2021 and People’s Defense Forces were established in May, with a war of self-defense officially launched in September of that year. Later that year, the National Unity Consultative Council revised the Charter—elaborating more on the norms and principles for the founding of the federal union and on citizens’ future rights—and had it approved at the People’s Assembly in January 2022. 

The document was created due to the fact that the 2008 Constitution was unlawfully used by the junta to seize power, making use of Article 417’s provisions regarding a state of emergency. However, it is not, in itself, an interim constitution or a permanent one to be used once the fighting has stopped. However, as it is the only document negotiated between the various EAOs/EROs, the CDM, and existing ethnic political parties, it still, “functions as the offer of the terms for this alliance,” with, “the offer of terms…made in the form of a constitutional instrument to publicly bind the NLD to credible commitments in pursuing longstanding ethnic group demands for greater autonomy and a highly decentralized form of federalism, but also demands such as secularism, diversity and inclusion, human rights and women’s empowerment,” as was noted by a recent report by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). 

Part I of the Charter contains, “clear concessions to demands of EAOs, and includes many principles related to federalism, democracy and rights,” and, “the revised Charter has seen significant further improvements in laying out citizen and democratic rights to be provided for in the future permanent constitution,” which includes, “inputs of the NUCC’s non-EAO discussants such as women’s and labour rights organizations.” However, it is open to future amendments, as well. 

As currently written, the Charter contains a twelve-step roadmap outlining the steps the resistance needs to take in order to arrive at a Federal Democratic Union. It includes supporting the CDM and others in eradicating the dictatorship; form committees; develop a platform where allied political parties, EROs, civil society, and others can deliberate on political agreements; to draft and ratify the FDC; form an interim NUG and legislative and judiciary institutions; call a People’s Assembly; develop a strategy to end the dictatorship and establish a federal democratic union; draft a Transitional Constitution; form a Transitional Government; draft a Federal Democratic Constitution through convening a Constitutional Assembly; ratify the Constitution; and form legislative, executive, and judiciary bodies as per that new Federal Democratic Constitution.

While the Charter and its roadmap may appear to provide the legal framework to guide the resistance during its fight against the junta, the IDEA report notes that not only does the FDC not claim to act as an interim constitution for the country, but as the CRPH has declared the 2008 Constitution null and void, there currently exists a problematic constitutional vacuum in Myanmar, as the 2008 Constitution has been rendered defunct due to the actions of the military and the resultant declaration by the CRPH, and the Charter’s legal enforceability is somewhat questionable. 

While a full dive into the specifics of the Federal Democracy Charter are outside the purview of this analysis, there are a number of elements that must be highlighted to demonstrate the various issues that Myanmar’s resistance forces are going to have to overcome when arriving at a future constitutional document. For instance, Part I’s Chapter IV “Guiding principles for building a Federal Democracy Union” outline a future where all powers are divided between the central, federal government and constituent member states. Specifically, it notes that, “the original owner of all land and natural resources within a State is the people who live in the State,” and that, “the State shall have the right to independently manage the exploration, extraction, selling, trading, preservation, and protection etc. of the natural resources within the State.” 

As has been noted by the Asia Foundation’s Thet Aung Lynn and Mari Oye in their policy brief, “Natural Resources and Subnational Governments in Myanmar: Key Considerations for Wealth Sharing,” from 2016, while, “supporters of decentralization argue that it can deliver important benefits in terms of responsiveness and effectiveness,” the, “evidence from other countries demonstrates that decentralization is very ‘risky and difficult in practice.’” Some of the key challenges that face EAOs as they transition to governing are that, “without strong, accountable subnational institutions, national environmental regulation, and fiscal management processes,” there are many risks that local governments will face, including a larger impact from commodity price volatility, especially if that commodity is one the state is highly dependent on. 

What’s more, as the Asia Foundation report points out, there are issues in aligning the interest of politicians and local populations so that local governments do not proceed to issue as many resource extraction permits as possible in order to generate revenue while doing so at the expense of both the environment or the future local economy. Furthermore, local governments are at increased risk of corruption absent robust monitoring capabilities and transparency requirements. Ultimately, Myanmar is also likely to run into issues if and when the natural resource distribution in the country results in a seemingly inequitable distribution of economic benefit to certain ethnic-majority states. If these issues are not resolved proactively, they will likely result in bitterness and resentment among populations that do not have access to such profitable geological bounty. 

Another area where the IDEA analysis shows the Charter as weak is its section on judicial institutions, which is vague on judicial powers, and contains no mention of judicial review, “nor a clear provision for writs petitions or on standing before court, issues that are critical to human rights protection.”

When it comes to Part I of the FDC, the IDEA report opines that, “in their current form [Chapter 4’s guiding principles] still require significant elaboration,” a process that may prove contentious when discussing issues like the protection of the right to self-determination. Specifically, while the Charter pledges a Union were all citizens can live in peace and where, “democracy is exercised and equal rights and self-determination are guaranteed,” the document does little to define what it actually means by “self-determination”, which could be taken as a right to secession by groups like the Shan, Kachin, and Karenni/Kayah who had initially received this right in the 1947 Constitution. 

Part II of the FDC similarly has some of its own issues, including the fact that there is no formal mandate to include non-state actors such as the Civil Disobedience Movement, strike committees, or EROs in the interim legislature. As well, while Chapter 5 of the FDC, “reserves important powers to the CRPH to continue to act in its representative role and to enact Union level legislation, regulate the legislative process, form ‘support committees’ and appoint the President, Vice President and Cabinet (in agreement with the NUCC)”, the IDEA report states that, “the CRPH remains somehow outside the interim government arrangements provided by the Charter,” and that, “in general, there is little publicly known about the way the CRPH has been operating or will continue to operate in the future; it is also not clear what institutions or constitutional provisions define or in other ways constrain the CRPH, and in fact the initial version of the Charter suggested that the NUG is accountable to the CRPH, which also maintains effective final authority over NUG appointments.” 

Similarly, when it comes to the National Unity Consultative Council, “despite the new provisions included in the revised Charter, the mandate of the NUCC remains rather vague,” despite the body emerging as, “the highest interim standing political body of the interim institutions,” whose, “main role is to ‘provide policy guidance, oversight and coordination for the implementation of strategies stipulated by the Federal Democracy Charter.” Ultimately, therefore, it will be important to involve other actors such as strike committees and EROs in the transition process. 

Ultimately, as the IDEA report concludes, while the Federal Democracy Charter promise to deliver the peace, equality, and justice that most in the country had been clamoring for, “citizens must now be reassured that the interim institutions—the NUCC, the CRPH and the NUG—have an actual strategy to achieve this goal, while striving to provide as many services as possible to the people in the interim period.” Furthermore, the IDEA authors argue that, “international assistance providers should get full on board with this unique opportunity to reconstitute Myanmar in the ways that the people of Myanmar have been demanding since the onset of the Spring Revolution.” Such a statement hits the proverbial nail on the head.

Military and Democratization Support: How the U.S. Can Do More for Myanmar

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Making U.S. Foreign Policy Work Better for Americans and Africans

December 2, 2022

Back on March 24th, a month after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Chinese state media service Xinhua News Agency published an article blasting the Western-centric behavior of the United States, proclaiming that, “double standards were boldly on display when the U.S. urged European countries to absorb people fleeing Ukraine while [remaining] indifferent to refugees from certain war-torn places in the Middle East and parts of Asia, whose suffering has stemmed mainly from years-long, hegemony-sustaining military operations led by the United States.” 

Simultaneously, in Africa, “a lack of imagination and creativity, and overreliance on European former colonial powers, has stymied the emergence of the type of policy that fosters mutually beneficial partnerships with African countries.” This has led to a situation where, “the United States has struggled to clearly define its strategic interests beyond an obsession with short-term stability that props up unpopular political regimes at the expense of the populations,” with U.S. support for a string of undemocratic leaders in Chad, Gabon, and Cameroon fueling, “instability in the long run and [undermining] U.S. support for democratization efforts in countries such as Zambia and Malawi, which have registered impressive democratic gains, and Zimbabwe, which is grappling with a repressive regime.” Meanwhile, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari alleged earlier last month that, “many of my peers are frustrated with Western hypocrisy and its inability to take responsibility” when it comes to the impact of climate change on Africa. 

Autocracy and Instability in Africa/Source: https://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/democracy_conflict_infographic_updated_EN-03.jpg

As the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Catherine Nzuki and Mvemba Phezo Dizolele have argued, “the status quo of the U.S. approach to Africa—poorly articulated and at times heavy-handed and paternalistic—has left the United States flat-footed at a time of intensifying geopolitical contestation and more assertive African leaders,” as, “China continues to deepen its strong economic and political ties throughout Africa [and] Russian influence and paramilitary activities expand across the continent.” This has left, “the United States, once reliably the major foreign player on the continent”, adrift in a, “crowded field vying for influence.”

While the White House’s “U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa”, released late this summer, acknowledges that, “it is impossible to meet this era’s defining challenges without African contributions and leadership,” and thus attempts to articulate, “a new vision for how and with whom we engage,” in Africa, “recast[ing] traditional U.S. policy priorities—democracy and governance, peace and security, trade and investment, and development—as pathways to bolster the region’s ability to solve global problems alongside the United States,” it does not contain strong enough guarantees that the U.S. will not remain partners with malign actors who also promise to adhere to U.S. counterterrorism objectives.

The essential issue remains that—absent a fundamental recalibration of U.S. foreign policy on the continent and a commitment to really focus on the welfare of ordinary Africans—the United States faces an underlying credibility issue in Africa that can and will poison any attempt to achieve the goals of fostering open societies, delivering democratic dividends, advancing economic opportunity, and supporting a just energy transition. What the United States needs is not a new quadrennial approach to the continent, but rather a fundamental reimagining of how the U.S. pursues its interests abroad, especially in Africa. 

A More Human-focused U.S. Foreign Policy

Back in early 2020, before the Biden administration took office, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Director of Policy Planning at the State Department Salman Ahmed, and a number of other authors participated in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Task Force on U.S. Foreign Policy for the Middle Class, which resulted in one of the most ambitious and wide-ranging foreign policy documents authored in recent years, “Making U.S. Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class.” 

The final report advocated integrating U.S. foreign policy into a national policy agenda, aimed at enhancing economic prospects for the U.S. middle class through a number of efforts—from tackling the inequitable distribution of benefits of globalization’s continued spread to breaking down traditional silos between domestic and foreign policy in order to create better trade agreements—as, “a strong and prosperous middle class bolsters economic mobility, and strengthens social cohesion,” while also providing, “a ready and healthy workforce to power the national economy and [fund] a large tax base to pay for national security and social insurance programs.”

However, while the report’s general premise has generally remained emphasized, even in the Biden administration’s October 2022 National Security Strategy, U.S. support of Ukraine has led to a situation where, “American citizens are feeling the punishing effects of global economic sanctions against Russia,” as in the months leading up to and following the Russian invasion, “prices for fuel, food, rent, and other good surged due to pandemic labor shortages and supply-chain bottlenecks.” 

Therefore, while it is too early to render a final verdict on the relative success or failure of the Carnegie Endowment Task Forces’ foreign policy for the middle class, as we approach a year of war in Ukraine, it is perhaps time to ask whether there is a better way to achieve a transformed U.S. foreign policy that benefits not only the U.S. middle class but also our African partners’, while simultaneously reducing accusations of hypocrisy and double-standards that continue to plague U.S. efforts abroad. 

As such, it is time for a new foreign policy where U.S. activities better align with its rhetoric, so that statement’s like President Biden’s February 2021 exhortation to State Department personnel that, “we must start with diplomacy rooted in America’s most cherished democratic values: defending freedom, championing opportunity, upholding universal rights, respecting the rule of law, and treating every person with dignity,” do not run afoul of continued U.S. support for strongmen and dictators throughout the continent.  A foreign policy that works for the American middle class is excellent; a foreign policy that works for our partners’ middle class as well is better. 

The China and Russia Challenge

Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western leaders pushed African and Asian leaders at the United Nations to condemn the attack, with a United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) vote that resulted in 143 countries voting in favor, five countries against, and thirty-five abstaining. A later UNGA vote to suspend Russia’s membership in the UN Human Rights Council saw ninety-three countries vote in favor, with twenty-four against, and fifty-eight abstaining countries—the majority of those in Africa, including Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Uganda, amongst others. 

U.S. Department of State Public Schedules (First Six Months)/Source: https://africaupclose.wilsoncenter.org/us-africa-relations-russia-ukraine-war/

All of this comes after a period of time where Chinese firms had become more active in building roads, ports, and rail throughout Africa as part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, as, “from 2007 to 2020, Chinese infrastructure financing for sub-Saharan Africa was 2.5 times as big as all other bilateral institutions combined.” Furthermore, perhaps even more important than the breadth of Chinese investment is its speed. As has been argued by former Senegalese President Abdolaye Wade, China moves faster than the West when it comes to such projects, noting that, “a contract that would take five years to discuss, negotiate and sign with the World Bank takes [just] three months when we have dealt with Chinese authorities,” leading to the average BRI infrastructure project taking just 1⁄3 of the time required by similar World Bank or African Development Bank projects. 

TotalSA Mozambique LNG Project Area/Source: https://www.naturalgasintel.com/total-suspends-activity-at-mozambique-lng-site-as-violence-worsens/

However, despite China’s increased flexibility, the picture is not entirely rosy when it comes to these Beijing-funded projects. As a May special report in the Economist noted, “China prides itself on a “demand-driven” approach: doing what African leaders want, to hell with technocrats in finance ministries.” Furthermore, a 2018 paper by Ann-Sofie Isaksson and Andreas Kotsadam in the Journal of Public Economics found that, “living within 50 km of sites where Chinese projects are currently being implemented is, indeed, associated with a greater probability of having experienced corruption,” and that the authors, “do not find an equivalent pattern around World Bank project sites.” Fundamentally, as the May Economist special report concludes, while there is little to claims of China being engaged in so-called “debt-trap diplomacy” in Africa, it is more accurate to say that while, “China may not be a duplicitous negotiator…it is ruthlessly self-interested.” It is China’s, “‘muscular’ approach, with strict confidentiality clauses, requirements that China be repaid ahead of others and the use of escrow accounts,” that does indicate that it does not have the good of Africans at the heart of its programming. 

In addition to China, there remains a strong Russian presence on the continent as well. As CSIS’s Mvemba Phezo Dizolele noted before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, and Global Human Rights & Europe, as well as the Subcommittee on Energy, the Environment and Cyber, African states do not have the same adversarial relationship with Russia that much of the West does, noting that, “for several African countries, these ties with Russia preceded their independences, as the Russians supported them in their liberation struggles against colonial powers.” Furthermore, Dizolele pointed out to the committees that, “even though Russia suffered a major setback after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it maintained its presence in Africa and kept its vast network of friends across the continent.” Ultimately, Dizolele notes, “to date, the Russian Federation has defense cooperation agreements with twenty-seven countries, including Libya, Sudan, Cameroon, Angola, Tanzania, and Zambia,” which include services ranging from from the exchange of defense and security policy information to military education and even the discussion of the entry of Russian warships into African ports. 

More concerningly, Russia has recently sought to bolster those ties to the African continent, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov undertaking a four-nation Africa trip in July which included stops in American partners Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda, and the Republic of the Congo. His trip comes after a 2019 Russia-Africa summit which was attended by Vladimir Putin and forty-three African leaders as well as a 2020 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute which named Russia as Africa’s premier source for arms imports. More specifically, Russia has also announced plans to enhance military and technical cooperation with an Ethiopian government that has been accused of war crimes and human rights violations, increased its use of abusive private military contractors throughout the continent—even after failures in countries like Mozambique—and maintains a robust political and military relationship with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni whose police and security forces have been credibly accused of torture and other abuses

However, Russia too has been credibly accused of pursuing its own ulterior motives on the continent, with the U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield arguing before the Security Council that, “one of the most immediate and growing concerns in Africa is the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group’s strategy of exploiting the natural resources of the Central African Republic, Mali, and Sudan, as well as other countries.” 

In the end, what China and Russia offer their African partners is a transactional relationship that does not come with the persistent hectoring about human rights or democratization that typically accompanies a partnership with Western nations. However, while a relationship with Russia or China might be seen as no-string-attached by some African governments, these partnerships are frequently not aimed at the good of the African populace but rather the enrichment of the foreign partner or the benefit of the political careers of embattled African leaders such as Colonel Assimi Goïta in Mali or Faustin Archange Touadéra in the Central African Republic. As the Brookings Institution’s Joseph Siegle wrote back in February of this year, “to assess the future of Russia-Africa relations, therefore, it is necessary to be clear that the ‘partnerships’ that Russia seeks in Africa are not state- but elite-based. By helping these often illegitimate and unpopular leaders to retain power, Russia is cementing Africa’s indebtedness to Moscow.” 

Meanwhile, Beijing’s influence is more subtle but no less malign for ordinary Africans, as the country has used its increased commercial ties across Africa as a vector to promote its own authoritarian model of the future internet. Specifically, in Ethiopia, Chinese firms ZTE and Huawei were chosen as the country’s partners for a 4G network rollout, with the same firms also being selected to run a pre-commercial 5G services trial, as well. As international NGO Freedom House argued in their 2022 country report on Freedom on the Net in Ethiopia, “these relationships have led to growing fears that Chinese entities may be assisting the authorities in developing more robust information and communications technology (ICT) censorship and surveillance capacities,” a particular problem given that, “government surveillance of online and mobile phone communications is pervasive in Ethiopia,” and that, “Ethiopia’s telecommunications and surveillance infrastructure has been developed in part through investments from Chinese companies with backing from the Chinese government, creating strong suspicions that the Ethiopian government has implemented highly intrusive surveillance practices modeled on the Chinese system.” 

A More African-Focused Foreign Policy

With Russia and China primarily looking out for their own interests in Africa, it creates a space for the United States to step in and take on the role of the foreign partner who not only aims to take care of its own citizens, but looks out for the good of the average African, as well. Such a strategy may be initially more costly, and will run into the headwinds of a disappointingly still pervasive environment of military takeovers on the continent, but will have the benefit of positioning the U.S. as a true partner to sub-Saharan African populations that are expected to double over the next three decades. 

Just as with the Carnegie Endowment’s Foreign Policy for the Middle Class, what is needed in a new U.S. foreign policy towards Africa is a rebuilding of trust. However, that trust needs to be built not just with the elite leaders of African nations, but with their people. To that end, there are a number of overarching recommendations that bear highlighting.

First, and most importantly, the U.S. needs to be ready to immediately sever the flow of security assistance when human rights or democratic values are being trampled upon by African partners’ leadership. Too often, U.S. involvement in countries such as Ethiopia, Mozambique, or Uganda is simply viewed through the lens of whatever the security crisis of the moment is and not as part of a long-term relationship between the United States and the people of that country. 

For instance, when it comes to Uganda, despite a 2022 Human Rights Watch report that documented, “years of enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrests and detention, torture, rape, extortion, and forced labor by Ugandan security forces,” and the country’s top 30 ranking as one of the world’s countries most at risk for the onset of mass killings, the country is still a major recipient of U.S. foreign aid, totaling some $8.1 billion in the period between 2001 and 2019, as well as the lion’s share of $2 billion in train and support assistance for participation in the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)—a country where the U.S. still maintains a strong interest in fighting al-Qaeda, but that it also wishes to keep at an arms distance due to its own poor experiences there in the 1990s. While back in 2014, the U.S. did cut aid flows to Uganda and canceled a regional military exercise in response to a Ugandan law imposing harsh penalties on homosexuality, that military aid was eventually resumed despite the Museveni government’s attempts to resurrect the anti-gay laws and even extend them so as to be able to impose the death penalty on homosexuals in the country. 

Similarly, in Mozambique—where U.S. special forces troops last year began training Mozambican forces to fight Al-Sunna wa Jama’a (ASWJ) in Cabo Delgado—U.S. aid is still provided despite the fact that, as former U.S. ambassador to Mozambique Dennis Jett wrote in Foreign Policy in March 2020, “Mozambique has become a borderline failed state, its democracy a sham, and its energy riches won’t guarantee that its security or governance will improve in the future.” Moreover, the United States continues to support its partners in Maputo despite eight major civil society observer groups noting that the country’s October 2019 elections, “were not free, fair and transparent and the results are not credible,” citing “irregularities” in the counting of votes, the lack of an “audit trail” registration, and ballot-box stuffing among other forms of Frelimo vote inflation

Disappointingly, while the U.S. does have some interest in degrading ASWJ’s ability to operate, it hard to currently imagine a continued American interest in Mozambique’s ills if it were not for the $30 billion investment that American multinational ExxonMobil has in Mozambican liquified natural gas, or possibly American partner France’s TotalEnergies’ $20 billion worth of natural gas projects in the country. 

Second, the United States must construct its future relationships not only with African elites in politics and business in mind, but with ordinary Africans who often do not receive the benefits of their governments international collaborations with Russia or China. As was noted in a May special report for The Economist, not only do Africans find it difficult to reach senior levels in the Chinese firms that have poured into the continent in recent years, but, “in Congo and elsewhere Chinese miners have fostered poor labour practices,” and, “in Nigeria Chinese cartels in ceramic and wigs have locked out local competitors.” Furthermore, “environmental degradation is common,” the report notes. Despite this, as another contemporaneous Economist report notes, the U.S. overall response has been underwhelming, as the Biden administration’s Build Back Better World—an attempt at a “values-driven, high-standard, and transparent infrastructure partnership led by major democracies to help narrow the $40+ trillion infrastructure need in the developing world”—has major flaws, as “B3W is little more than a new label for inter-agency co-operation in Washington.”

Third, the United States will need to take more steps to own its responsibilities on the continent, including when it comes to its common but differentiated responsibility for the enormous impact that global warming has had and will continue to have on the African continent. Mercifully, this seems to be a point that the Biden administration has at least acknowledged, with the U.S. recently dropping its long-held objections to providing compensation for the costs of the destruction brought on by climate change. By doing so, the U.S. can not only deliver tangible progress towards global emissions reductions, but address the fact that nearly half of the continent’s population lack adequate access to electricity.

However, more needs to be done to recognize the disproportionate impact that decades of American emissions have had on a sub-Saharan Africa that presently emits just 0.55% of the global total. Moreover, as Jack A. Goldstone has written for the Wilson Center, “even on an income-adjusted basis, African countries are low CO2 producers,” with U.S. CO2 output 160 times that of Ethiopia and twenty-three times higher than the more urbanized Nigeria. 

Recognizing this disproportionate impact last year, China had announced a halt on building new coal-fired power plants overseas—a move welcomed by African environmentalists and others—and has proposed, “to establish a China-Africa partnership of strategic cooperation,” in the fight against climate change, including in the area of green development. In light of that, the United States will need to step up its efforts to boost Africa’s supply of sustainable energy, whether through efforts such as the joint U.S. and EU cooperation promoting projects such as the African Continental Power System Masterplan or USAID’s Power Africa program.  

Fourth, and largely related to the first point, the United States needs to be less concerned with fighting the Global War on Terror in Africa and more concerned with the underlying drivers behind these actors. As Jihad Mashamoun recently wrote in a piece for the Middle East Institute, a country such as Sudan—which is geostrategically important to U.S. interest in both Africa and the Middle East—has leaders in Lt.-Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy Lt.-Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as “Hemedti”), which, “are banking [on their geostrategic importance] as they seek to press the Biden administration to focus its Sudan policy on stability, rather than supporting calls for democracy.” 

As Mashamoun points out, “both Burhan and Hemedti have worked to encourage the U.S. to continue its counter-terrorism cooperation with Sudan,” with the, “aim…to convince the U.S. to drop its support for popular calls for democracy and accept their autocratic military rule.” Mashamoun further notes that the Bush and Obama administration’s focus on stability and counter-terrorism was a result of the demands of the war on terror, which saw the Bashir regime offer to share intelligence on Islamist groups in the country as part of a hoped-for normalization of relations. 

While normalization was, in the past, impeded by Bashir’s involvement in the Darfur conflict and genocide, the Obama administration still ultimately decided to ease sanctions on its way out of the door in order to reward the Bashir regime for its counter-terrorism commitments. Further endeavoring to make the U.S.-Sudan relationship more transactional, the Trump administration removed Sudan from the state sponsors of terrorism list in exchange for Khartoum agreeing to join the Abraham Accords. In addition, the deal was also contingent on Sudan finally paying $335 million in restitution for victims of the 1998 bombings at US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, as well as the 2000 attack on the USS Cole and the murder of a USAID employee in the Sudanese capital. 

While the Biden administration has subsequently suspended Abraham Accords-related assistance to Sudan due to the coup d’état that dissolved the military-civilian Sovereign Council that was to guide the country on its path towards democracy, the administration has reiterated its commitment to advancing the Abraham Accords, stating that, “they are a positive development that have had clear benefits for Israel and the region,” making it likely that full democratization will not be one of the requirements for Sudan to resume receiving Abraham Accords funding. 

Reckoning With the Link Between the U.S.’ Self-Conception and African Perceptions of American Aid

One of the fundamental problems with American foreign policy towards Africa since the end of the second World War and especially since the end of the Cold War is that the United States’ unquestioned global primacy frequently resulted in a clash between American rhetoric about being the shining city on a hill—helping to usher the rest of the world’s population to their free, prosperous, and democratized future—and actual American foreign policy, which, instead of supporting the rights and freedoms of Africans, has often aided the very men who have sought to oppress their own fellow citizens. 

As Tobias Hagmann and Filip Reyntjens write in their excellently edited book, Aid and Authoritarianism in Africa, not only has, “the relationship between foreign aid and autocratic rule in sub-Saharan Africa has a long-standing historical precedent,” but, “in the past decade, important donors have gradually traded their earlier commitment to political reform in Africa for the achievement of increasingly technocratic development successes such as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and, more recently, the ‘development effectiveness paradigm’ with its focus on growth and productivity.” As a result, the authors point out, “while bilateral and multilateral donors constantly claim to be promoting democracy, good governance and human rights in Africa, many are effectively complicit in fostering development without democracy.” 

More specifically, as Rita Abrahamsen notes in her chapter of Aid and Authoritarianism, towards the end of the Cold War, the U.S.—and others in the West—immediately began to see democracy rise, “from obscurity to become the panacea for Africa’s development ills,” as the World Bank’s 1989 report, “Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to Sustainable Growth” put forth the argument that, “a ‘crisis of governance’ underlies the ‘litany of Africa’s development problems,’” with the overall message of the report being that, “liberal democracy was not only a human right, but also conducive to and necessary for economic growth.” As such, “in February 1990, the United States announced that foreign assistance would be used to promote democracy and would favour countries pursuing ‘the interlinked and mutually reinforcing goals of political liberalization and market-oriented economic reforms.” 

Despite this professed belief in the power of liberal democracy to transform socio-economic life in Africa, however, Abrahamsen argues, “the pursuit of simultaneous economic and political reform presented newly elected governments in the 1990s with complex and intractable dilemmas, where economic and political logic often appeared contradictory and conflicting: on the one hand, the demand for further economic adjustment by donors and creditors, and, on the other, domestic expectations of social improvements in the wake of democracy; on one side, instructions to privatize state-owned enterprises and, on the other, hopes for gainful employment,” leaving African governments torn between the demands of external donors to liberalize their markets and the desires of their own domestic constituencies for more public goods. 

Abrahamsen further argues that, as a result, “the first casualty of this dilemma was the democratic process itself, as governments reverted to the tried and tested methods of the authoritarian past in order to contain civil disorder and silence critics,” which was a process seen in Zambia in the early 1990s, where, faced with IMF and World Bank demands to cut spending on public services and pursue greater trade liberalization, the economy shrank dramatically and, “the government of President Chiluba reacted by closing down democratic space, harassing the opposition, and rigging elections.” 

Abrahamsen also notes that often while, “between elections, significant breaches of democratic practice will lead to the suspension of assistance,” or assistance being withheld in the lead-up to elections in protest against undemocratic practices, “almost without fail, however, foreign aid is reinstated in an almost ritual performance.” She notes how ,”Uganda, for example, has periodically encountered the wrath of donors in response to its authoritarian practices and persecution of the opposition, but aid has inevitably been restored to a country that has become a ‘donor darling’ due to its economic liberalization, its successful HIV/AIDS campaign and more recently its support for counterterrorism,” despite the fact that, “Uganda is a de facto one-party system, which according to the Afrobarometer’s surveys has one of the continent’s biggest gaps between citizens’ demand for democracy and its perceived supply.” 

Correspondingly, “reviews of Africa’s democratic experiences thus often conclude that Africans are disappointed with democracy’s ability to reduce poverty, inequality, and suffering,” and, “as Peter Lewis observes, ‘growth has not been accompanied by rising incomes or popular welfare’, giving rise to the paradox of ‘growth without prosperity.’” Resultantly, “to date, there are few signs that the spectacular double-digit growth experienced by many countries since the mid-2000s has significantly improved…socioeconomic conditions, and recent surveys conducted by the Afrobarometer,” show that, “53 per cent of respondents rated the state of their national economy as ‘fairly bad’ or ‘very bad’, and 48 per cent described their personal living conditions as ‘fairly bad’ or ‘very bad’.” Ultimately, Abrahamsen concludes, “the effects of simultaneous economic and political liberalization can be seen as paradoxical; they contribute both to the maintenance of (an imperfect) democracy and the persistence of social and political unrest, which in turn pose a continual threat to the survival of pluralism.” 

Abrahamsen also points out that further complicating the U.S.-Africa development relationship is the fact that, “one of the characteristics of contemporary development assistance is an unashamed acknowledgement that it must serve the national security interest of donors,” with the assumption that development and security goals can be pursued in a simultaneous and mutually reinforcing manner. In essence, Abrahamsen argues, U.S. development discourse, “has coalesced around the three ‘Ds’ of development, diplomacy and defence,” where, “the three ‘Ds’ are considered mutually reinforcing tools of foreign policy that are in turn integrated into an overall security strategy.” Moreover, Abrahamsen points out that for Western governments, “the three ‘Ds’ of development, diplomacy and defence come together in a concern for the national security of donors, and there is little doubt that security today figures more prominently on the development agenda than at any other time since the end of the Cold War,” such that, “this discourse constructs the development needs of the poor as coterminous with the security priorities of donors, and there is little or no room for conceiving of conflict or contradictions between them.” 

At the end of the day, the issue is more about what happens when the priorities of donors and recipients are out of alignment, such as with the United States’ Trans-Saharan Counter-Terrorism Partnership, whose five objectives contain three which refer to security and two others that refer to, “promoting democratic governance,” and “discrediting terrorist ideology.” Abrahamsen notes that, “the inherent danger in this order of priorities is that foreign assistance ends up being driven by donors’ security interests rather than the development needs of recipient countries,” such that, “in Uganda, President Museveni has…successfully played the ‘war on terror’ to his advantage, bargaining strategic support for increased assistance and political negotiating space,” while, “progress on democracy has stalled…with human rights organizations frequently expressing concerns about freedom of expression, persecution of civil society, and harassment of the opposition.” Furthermore, Abrahamsen submits, elsewhere, “in North Africa, Algeria has become pivotal in the fight against violent extremism in the Sahel, and has benefitted from considerable foreign assistance despite its poor record on democracy and human rights.” 

As Abrahamsen admits, “there is nothing inherently undemocratic about training and funding police and militaries.” However, “the substantial allocation of resources and development assistance to security efforts raises numerous questions and challenges,” and that, “given the frequency of military coups and the tendency of African militaries and police to be focused on regime security rather than citizen security, strengthening a state’s security apparatus is potentially hazardous both for the survival of democracy and the protection of human rights,” especially as, “Ethiopia has suppressed opposition parties and journalists by branding them ‘terrorists,’” and Uganda’s, “Museveni has linked the Lord’s Resistance Army to the war on terror and al-Qaeda in order to attract foreign assistance.” 

African Coups Per Country Since 1950/Source: https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/

The result, Abrahamsen points out, is that, “the current discourse on development, security and stability constitutes a resource that African leaders can employ to their own advantage, frequently enhancing their own security apparatus while weakening the opposition and civil society critics.” 

In general, this is something that African publics’ are well aware of. Furthermore, Africans can easily see through veiled U.S. attempts to play geopolitics with African aid. As Chris Ogunmodede, associate editor at World Politics Review recently said of U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s trip to Africa in August, “If it’s about competing with China (and Russia) in those terms, it’s going to fail. It’s not about what Africans want. It’s all about what Washington wants. That’s not a partnership.” 

Evaluating the U.S. Position in Africa Vis-à-vis Russia and China

China has been Africa’s top trading partner for many years and is now the top trading partner for 29 Africa countries, including the continent’s three largest economies—Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt. This trend is an abrupt change from two decades ago, when China was the top trading partner for just two African nations. In 2020, the United States was not the top trading partner for any African country/Source: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/foresightafrica2022_fullreport.pdf#page=118

Another fundamental challenge that the United States must face as it attempts to reassess its engagement with African countries is that it no longer is the globe’s unquestioned economic leader. As the Brookings Institution’s Africa Growth Initiative wrote in January’s, “Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for the Continent in 2022,” in the last two decades, China has gone from being the top trading partner for just two African countries to being the top trading partner of 29 African countries, “including the continent’s three largest economies—Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt.” Furthermore, Brookings notes, by 2020, the U.S. was no longer the top trading partner for any African country, especially as, over the period between 2006-2016, “trade between the United States and sub-Saharan African countries…stagnated or declined,” as, “exports from sub-Saharan Africa to the U.S. fell by 66 percent…while imports grew by only 7 percent, even as overall imports rose by 56 percent.” 

Furthermore, despite what continues to be an epic blunder in Ukraine which has dealt a massive blow to Russian military prestige and economic power, it is likely that the country will still remain a major remain a player in, “the global South, where Russia enjoys greater influence and is able to contest,” narratives of its decline. However, while, “Russia is not investing significantly in conventional statecraft in Africa— e.g., economic investment, trade, and security assistance,” the country has relied on, “ a series of asymmetric (and often extralegal) measures for influence—mercenaries, arms-for-resource deals, opaque contracts, election interference, and disinformation,” which tend to focus, “on propping up an embattled incumbent or close ally: Khalifa Haftar in Libya, Faustin Archange Touadéra in the Central African Republic (CAR), and coup leaders Colonel Assimi Goïta in Mali and Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Sudan, among others.” 

Therefore, while a good first step for engagement with African countries will be to reinvigorate the flagging trade between the U.S. and Africa, as has been argued earlier this year by the CNA Corporation’s Alexander Casendino, a more vital reengagement must be with democracy, human rights, and governance (DRG) programming, an area where just 4% of U.S. security assistance funds in Africa went in 2019. 

To achieve this focus on democracy, human rights, and governance, the U.S. will need to show greater resolve towards threats offered by African leaders who resist such efforts. Particularly, as David M. Anderson and Jonathan Fisher write in their chapter of Aid and Authoritarianism on with regard to authoritarianism and the securitization of development in Uganda over the past three plus decades. There, the U.S. will need to stand ready to call the bluff of leaders such as Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni who, in 2012, threatened to pull out of the African Union Mission in Somalia due to the U.S. potentially supporting a UN report which claimed that Rwanda and Uganda continued to support M23 rebels committing war crimes in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. As Anderson and Fisher point out, “US and UK officials were largely convinced that Uganda’s 2012 threat…was a bluff, but were nonetheless unprepared to ‘call’ the Ugandan leader on this particularly disingenuous piece of diplomacy.”

When a partner is engaging in such egregious behavior and the U.S. does nothing to alter the relationship, it sends a powerful signal to not just that partner but the United States other existing—and potential future—partners that the U.S. is open to trading its principles for stronger security cooperation. 

In the final analysis, one of the strongest negotiating tactics a larger, more economically powerful country such as the United States has is the ability to determine when and where it is willing to walk away from the table because the other side is demonstrating its unwillingness to budge on an issue of fundamental importance—such as democracy, human rights, and governance issues should be for the U.S. Indeed, the U.S. must first demonstrate a commitment to walk away from relationships with leaders that have taken an authoritarian turn if it wants to reassert its proper role as the dominant player in the bilateral relationship. By permitting poorly-performing partners to not only continue to trample on their citizens rights, but to threaten to jettison the American partnership when the U.S. criticizes their behavior—such as Uganda’s Museveni did in 2014 when, in response to Western donors’ condemnation of his signing of the country’s anti-homosexuality law, he declared that, “I want to work with Russia because they don’t mix up their politics with other country’s politics,”—it deals a massive blow to U.S. rhetorical proclamations about its support for democratic values and human rights. 

At the end of the day, Washington must understand that while it is true that Russia and China have made tremendous inroads into Africa in the past two decades, the answer to combatting their rising influence is not to abandon the Western promotion of democracy and human rights but to instead re-center that pursuit in all of its engagements on the continent. While the U.S. does have a number of legitimate security interests throughout the continent, none of them can be addressed by propping up the leaders who end up being one of the primary underlying drivers behind the continent’s unrest themselves. 

Drifting Partners in Mali and Chad

For instance, if Uganda’s Museveni wants to continue his drift towards Moscow, then the U.S. should stand ready to halt all security cooperation with the country, cutting off transfers such as the $270 million in military assistance that the regime received during the Obama administration’s time in office. While such an aid cutoff should not necessarily affect the provision of development or humanitarian aid, in the event of such continued recalcitrance and poor behavior from the Ugandan leader, the U.S. must also stand ready to re-evaluate how such aid flows are being used by the regime and punish malfeasance, especially if a leader like Museveni continues to flout U.S. norms regarding human rights in his country. 

As Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Robert Menendez said back in April, “despite [their] troubling track record, Uganda remains one of the top recipients of U.S. foreign aid and security assistance,” and that, “while the U.S. has issued statements and expressions of concern after human rights violations come to light, such statements are insufficient. Personal targeted sanctions would have greater impact.”

Moreover, elsewhere, in the Sahel, the U.S. should be ready to change tactics in its decade-long adventure battling jihadist insurgencies in countries such as Mali, Chad, and Burkina Faso, where years of poor governance has been compounded by a recent spate of military takeovers that have only increased regional instability. While the U.S. should certainly not consider abandoning its humanitarian role in these countries, it must seriously consider cutting off all security-related assistance in order to clearly send the message that American leadership will not tolerate coups and that civilian democratic governance is the sine qua non of the bilateral relationship. For far too long, the United States has simply limped along with these partners while their leaders have slow-walked efforts towards democracy. 

Mali, for instance, provides a credible case study not only in how the failures in democratization and reform have led to the state the country is in today, but that the continued support of outside donors allowed Malian leadership to continue with the fiction that it was making progress. This idea is demonstrated by Leonardo A.Villalón, whose article, “The Political Roots of Fragility in the G5 Sahel Countries: State Institutions and the Varied Effects of the Politics of Democratisation,” appears in the Institute for International Political Studies’ book, Sahel: 10 Years of Instability: Local Regional and International Dynamics, edited by Giovanno Carbone and Camillo Casola. In the article, Villalón notes how, with the exception of 1992, Mali has never had “robust and widely-accepted elections”, and that President Amadou Toumani Touré’s reign from 2002-2012 served to further erode existing democratic institutions. As a result, “the Malian democratic state was a hollow shell which existed largely to broad international applause, what has been evocatively labeled a ‘Potemkin state’,” where, “the institutions of Malian democracy and the elite that populated them had little popular legitimacy, and this despite the fact that they were much praised by the international community.” 

Despite these failures, the U.S. has continued its relationship Mali in recent years, providing nearly $79 million in U.S. foreign development assistance in 2020, with only 1% reserved for democracy, rights and governance and just 5% for peace and security programming that is not direct aid to the security services, as has been noted by the United States Institute of Peace’s (USIP) Ena Dion and Emily Cole. Furthermore, this does not even take into account the portion of the $346 million in aid the U.S. provided as part of its funding towards the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali’s (MINUSMA) budget. As Kristen A. Harkness wrote back in May in a piece for the Modern War Institute at West Point, “the United States, in other words, is predominantly building up the military capabilities of authoritarian governments in sub-Saharan Africa. 

Elsewhere, one might also consider the case of Chad, where a Transitional Military Council has taken over after the death of Idriss Déby in April 2021. Despite the military takeover, the U.S. has continued to provide the country with funding through the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership and the G5 Sahel Joint Force, including nearly $2 million for International Military Education and Training (IMET) and conventional weapons security. Furthermore, Chad’s Idriss Déby had continued to receive American support despite a system of violent repression that was created to keep him in power. Now, even today, the U.S. seems prepared to continue such support in order to keep counter-terrorism operations such as the G5 Sahel Joint Force or MINUSMA operational. Meanwhile, citizens in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali’s neighbors simply hope that the coups and unrest do not come for them anytime soon. 

This situation is completely untenable, and U.S. actions in the region continue to be supremely counterproductive. As USIP’s Sandrine Nama and Joseph Sany wrote back in October:

U.S. and international policymakers need to recognize the Sahel as a core of one of the world’s biggest security crises — a contiguous swath of countries destabilized not by some inexplicable predilection to violence but by a visible root cause: toxic governance. Generations of corrupt, authoritarian rule by elites rather than laws has prevented or undermined democracies, investments and the fulfillment of basic human needs. These failures of governance have bred violent extremism, communal conflicts and military coups or attempts in varied mixes among a half-dozen Sahel states — a zone of 138 million people that is nine times bigger and more than triple the population of either Afghanistan or Iraq.

Prior responses by the U.S, France, and the UN have been largely counterterrorism-focused, which has not only failed to reduce the violence, but has actually exacerbated it. While it has become cliché to point to the old twelve-step saying that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result, it is, however, more than apt when it comes to American and overall Western actions in the Sahel. Ever since the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. has seemingly viewed the continent solely through the lens of combatting “terrorism”, and has, as a result, ended up in a proverbial game of whack-a-mole against individual terrorist groups rather than confronting the real problems that lie beneath these insurgencies. 

A New Way Forward

While there is little doubt that both Russia and China will continue to seek out relationships with African countries—especially ones experiencing a democracy deficit such as in Mali or Burkina Faso—both of those great powers are faced with the fact that one in three Afrobarometer respondents in 2021 listed the U.S. as their favored development model, with just 22% preferring China, and Russia not a major consideration. Furthermore, last year’s Afrobarometer report also finds that, “Africans who prefer Chinas as a development model…[are] about as likely as those who favor the U.S. model to express support for democracy, elections, multiparty competition, and accountable government, and as likely to reject authoritarian alternatives such as a one-party state or military rule.” While Africans tend to reject strict conditionality being attached to development funds, it does not mean that they wish the U.S. to continue to support leaders who oppress them. 

Support for democratic norms and institutions, by preference for China or U.S. model/Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/articles/china-has-invested-deeply-africa-we-checked-see-whether-undermining-democracy/

That being said, the United States is never going to see real change from partners in Africa, or anywhere else in the world for that matter, if it does not begin to be ready to make some tough decisions in the coming years. However, the early results are not particularly heartening. For instance, in July, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs of United States Chidi Blyden testified before the Senate Foreign Relations committee that, “as the Transitional Military Council works towards a return to democratically elected and civilian-led government, [the United States] remain[s] committed to supporting the Chadian people,” and that, “the United States has the potential to provide meaningful security cooperation to train Chad’s military and civilian services, especially given its role as a troop contributor in UN and regional peace operations.” More disappointingly, Blyden’s analysis of the Sahelian context not only bought the Transitional Military Council’s line that it is indeed working towards a return to civilian-led government—and not figuring out a way to indefinitely extend its own rule—but it seemingly ignored the terrible legacy left by former Idriss Déby and his grip on power through military means. 

In sum, it does not matter how strong a counter-terror partner countries like Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Ethiopia, or Uganda are if their leadership continues to oppress large segments of their populations in order to maintain power or control. As the 2015 United Nations Plan of Action on Preventing Violent Extremism acknowledges, “Nothing can justify violent extremism, but we must also acknowledge that it does not arise in a vacuum. Narratives of grievance, actual or perceived injustice, promised empowerment and sweeping change become attractive where human rights are being violated, good governance is being ignored, and aspirations are being crushed.” Furthermore, as Marc Sommers recently wrote for Just Security, “violent extremist groups infiltrate African nations where predatory governments alienate youth, exclude vulnerable groups, and rule with violent impunity. The intruders easily exploit massive fault lines in state-citizen relations…and that is where the international response to violent extremism in Africa must focus.” 

While the Biden administration’s U.S. Strategy Towards Sub-Saharan Africa deserves some plaudits for acknowledging the fact that, “there are strong linkages between poor and exclusionary governance, high levels of corruption, human rights abuses, including sexual and gender-based violence, and insecurity, which are often exploited by terrorist groups and malign foreign actors,” the document provides little tangible guidance on how exactly the Departments of State or Defense will go about putting governance goals above counterterrorism commitments. 

In the end, what the United States needs to do is to be ready to stand up to African strongman leaders who are unwilling to relinquish their militarized grips over their populations. Should those leaders fail to do so, the United States needs to be ready to completely walk away from any kind of security relationship with those countries, even if it means permitting China and Russia to step in to temporarily fill in the gap. In the long-term, what the United States should instead do is continue to provide lifesaving humanitarian assistance as well as to work to reconfigure the U.S. visa system to make it less hostile to Africans who wish to come to the country to take advantage of our world-class higher education system. Longer-term, in countries where military-focused leaders deny their citizens the right to determine their own futures through the ballot box, the United States should stand ready to cut off all military-related aid—including for counter-terrorism purposes—as, even if those countries achieve some small tactical victories due to American assistance, they are simply creating the underlying conditions for future insurgencies and unrest. 

While such a strategy would undoubtedly cause some short-term pain—possibly even severe—ripping the band-aid off of the situation will, in the long run, do much more to achieve the goals of not only American policymakers but of ordinary Africans as well. Furthermore, with continued population growth that will make Africa home to just shy of 25% of the global population by 2050, the problems facing the continent’s democratically-challenged countries will only get worse as climate change—and its resultant displacement of people—trigger even greater unrest and discontent with the often miserable status quo. Going forward, the United States either has the choice to try and ameliorate this situation, or to double-down, making it worse, while attempting to keep “Africa’s problems” contained in Africa. 

Continuing to pursue the same kind of helter-skelter counterterrorism strategy is not only counterproductive, it evinces a troubling dearth of creative thinking in the American foreign policy establishment. While the past few decades has seen the U.S. military become the only branch of the government that receives enough funding to be even partially as competent as it needs to be to properly accomplish its objectives, it has left decision makers with the idea that only securitized responses can offer meaningful change. 

While the U.S. should certainly not be dictating to Africans the solutions to their problems, in countries that have experienced military takeovers in recent years, the U.S. should at least work to encourage national dialogues to aid in the return towards democracy. In the event that junta leaders are unwilling to go along with these processes, then the U.S. should be willing to walk away from everything in the relationship that does not directly support the lives and livelihoods of the civilian populace. 

As Dennis Jett wrote back in 2020 in the pages of Foreign Policy about Mozambique, “the donor community ignores corruption and continues to offer humanitarian and development aid that is little more than a Band-Aid. Treating the basic cause of the country’s ills—bad governance—rather than the symptoms of the problem seems beyond the attention span of the rich countries at variance with their commercial interests.” 

The U.S. has proceeded down this path for far too long, at an enormous cost to the U.S. taxpayer, and an even higher cost for the lives of ordinary Africans. As Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs of the United States Molly Phee said at an event back in March, “the United States believes strongly that African voices matter.” 

However, according to the 2021 Afrobarometer, Africans have resoundingly rejected military rule, one-party rule, and one-person rule, and just 32% think that their governments are doing fairly or very well when it comes to countering corruption, down from 36% ten years ago. Therefore, when dealing with African countries, the United States should take its own advice and truly listen to the voices of the millions of Africans who reject militarized regimes and begin to use the tremendous leverage brought by American foreign aid to convince African strongmen leaders that U.S. security assistance and their rule by force are mutually exclusive. 

The Global War on Drugs’ Impact on Africa

None of this even touches on the more tangential steps that the United States could take to help reduce the disproportionate impact that problems like narcotrafficking have on Africa. For instance, in Mozambique, the insurgency is strengthened through its  involvement in the illegal drug trade, which is ultimately fueled by European and U.S. demand for the products. Furthermore, as was pointed out by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s (UN ODC) 2022 World Drug Report, transit of cocaine—the most used stimulant drug in terms of number of users in all of the Western hemisphere as well as much of Western Europe—through West Africa has resurfaced in recent years, with seizures in Mali and Niger confirming the trafficking of large volumes of cocaine via the Sahel. What’s more, while the total tonnage of drugs that are trans-shipped through Africa is low when compared to what emerges out of South America, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) is careful to point out that the total amount of cocaine seized in West Africa in 2019 was larger than reported to the UN ODC. Finally, the EMCDDA writes that an increased number of seizures in the past few years indicates a reversal of a trend from before 2013—with, for example, Mozambique becoming a major cocaine transit hub in recent years—demonstrating that as instability has increased on the continent, the space for narcotrafficking has concomitantly increased. 

Most used stimulant drug, by country, in terms of number of users (2020 or most recent year for which data are available)/Source: https://www.unodc.org/res/wdr2022/MS/WDR22_Booklet_2.pdf#page=18

Human history and practical experience has demonstrated that, as long as drugs exist, there are going to be individuals that wish to consume them. Five decades of a U.S. and European war on drugs has failed to deliver any meaningful progress towards eliminating illegal drugs, and, as the Global Commission on Drug Policy’s 2021 report, “Time to End Prohibition” argues, “over 50 years of prohibition and enormous efforts to eradicate drug production, use and trafficking have not only failed utterly, they have created major security problems and fed violence in urban areas.” Until the United States seriously embraces decriminalization of narcotics, policymakers will have to deal with the fact that America’s war on drugs continues to exist on a global battlefield and that the U.S. is losing, decisively

As H.L. Mencken wrote nearly a century ago about a different kind of failed war on vice, “Prohibition has not only failed in its promises but actually created additional serious and disturbing social problems throughout society. There is not less drunkenness in the Republic but more. There is not less crime, but more. … The cost of government is not smaller, but vastly greater. Respect for law has not increased, but diminished.” Similarly, until the U.S. grapples with the fact that addiction is a mental health issue and not a criminal justice issue, it is not just ordinary Americans who will get caught up in the destructive wake of the failed war on drugs, but Africans who experience widespread violence at the hands of insurgent groups which are partly sustained by drug trafficking. 

Build Back Better for Africans

To further reorient U.S.-African relations, U.S. development assistance in Africa must re-focus on delivering better outcomes for ordinary Africans. While programs such as Prosper Africa and Power Africa have their merits, the Prosper Africa Act has languished in Congress, clouding the future of the nearly $10 billion pipeline for trade and investment. However, as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Zainab Usman wrote earlier this summer, the draft bill still requires some work if it is to both reach a wide audience of African countries as well as deliver tangible benefits to Africans. 

For instance, Usman argues that the legislation, as currently constructed, lacks the focus on specific industries that would make best use of, “the U.S. private sector’s comparative advantage in spaces like pharmaceuticals, digital technologies and higher education.” Furthermore, he correctly argues that Congress should consider different ways of engaging African partners in shaping the legislation, letting policymakers, businesses and civil society both in Africa and the U.S.-based diaspora ensures that the legislation speaks to the real interests of Africans. 

Similarly, another U.S. effort that has not achieved its desired results over the past twenty years is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which—as was pointed out by the Council on Foreign Relations’ Claire Klobucista back in March of this year—experts have largely judged to be a failure due to its inability to aid many African partner countries in diversifying their economies and increasing their competitiveness in the global market. Moreover, as CSIS’ Laird Treiber wrote back in 2021, “AGOA does not cover many of the sectors with the greatest potential, including the growing trade in financial, digital, travel, and business services,” and that Congress has indicated that it will not re-extend the program in 2025 due to leading sponsors of the legislation arguing that African economies had matured since the program’s creation. This, as Treiber notes, would be a disaster, as letting AGOA expire without a renewal or engaging with sub-Saharan countries on bilateral free trade agreements, “would provide no transition for those companies and countries that have made use of [AGOA], particularly as African countries look to recover from the first continent-wide recession in 25 years.” As such, while the U.S. may want to keep the door open for more bilateral free trade agreements with African partners—especially if they include strong chapters on anti-corruption and the environment—policymakers must also consider extending certain AGOA provisions that affect sectors such as textiles, which had seen soaring trade volumes under the deal. 

In a similar vein, the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Catherine Nzuki and Mvemba Phezo Dizolele argue, the creation of the United States Development Finance Corporation has largely been a disappointment in Africa, with a timid investment strategy that has struggled to increase U.S. impact on African markets. As Charles Kenny and Ian Mitchell wrote for the Center for Global Development back in 2020, the Development Finance Corporation could, “provide a lot more financing at rates above their own cost of borrowing to support both the private and public sectors in developing countries.” This could be especially beneficial for U.S. consumers, as Africa is not only home to thirty percent of the world’s strategic minerals, it is poised to be the world’s next growth market

Steps from the Biden administration, such as removing Ethiopia, Guinea, and Mali from AGOA due to human rights abuses and military coups send an excellent example to other partners whose militaries are considering an attempted takeover, and actions such as this should be considered the gold standard, with provisions to suspend participation included in any future bilateral trade agreement. However, other steps should be considered, such as trade agreements between the U.S. and Africa’s regional economic communities (REC), as not only does the vast majority of intra-African trade takes place within these RECs, but, “importantly, a trade agreement with the [East African Community] would be largely aligned with the spirit of the [African Continental Free Trade Area], whose operationalization is predicated on increased intra-REC trade across the continent,” and, “it would provide a roadmap for engaging other RECs like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), and the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU),” as has been argued by the Center for Global Development’s Mike Brodo and Ken Opalo. 

Conclusion 

Fundamentally, U.S. policy towards Africa will struggle to achieve its desired goals of a mutually beneficial partnership with African countries so long as policymakers continue to view the continent through a narrow, security-focused lens that views elite engagement as the only pathway to influencing a country’s trajectory. Furthermore, repairing the relationship between the United States and ordinary Africans will take more than no longer viewing the continent simply as an extension of the global competition between the United States, Russia, and China. Africans are not simply pawns in some kind of geostrategic chess game but real people with real hopes, dreams, and desires that are no different from everyday Americans’. 

Therefore, in order to move forward, the U.S. will need to first take a step back and review its policy towards the continent, as the past decade’s strategy failed to deliver real results for Africans or the United States. While the Biden administration’s U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa contains a number of promising ideas, such as its focus on conservation, climate adaptation, and a just energy transition, U.S. strategy needs a more fundamental rework of its relationship with the continent’s leaders to truly deliver for both Americans and Africans. What is required instead is an acknowledgement that too often, U.S. rhetoric about development and the commercial relationship with African countries takes a backseat to Washington’s security-related concerns—such as was the case when the U.S. drafted its sanctions on Russia seemingly without the involvement of major African countries, drawing the ire of leaders such as South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa. As long as that continues, certain unscrupulous African leaders and militaries are going to use that focus in order to obtain the equipment and training they need to dominate their fellow citizens. 

What the U.S. must recognize is that insecurity emanating from the continent is overwhelmingly caused by poor governance and corruption at various levels of government in many countries. As such, until the overarching U.S. strategy towards the continent is reconfigured so that it focuses on partners’ delivery of services and good governance for its citizens, no amount of support for “sustainable development and resilience”, driving the digital transformation, or investing in climate resiliency will matter, as either the funds will be siphoned off by grafting governmental and business elites or Africans will not have their say in the distribution of the proceeds from such investment, as autocrats stifle their voices at the ballot box. 

A U.S. strategy that strongly commits to cutting off security assistance to African autocrats and strongmen, no matter the current U.S. security priority in the region, will not only send a message to Africans that the United States is seriously about their ultimate well-being, but it will likely do a much better job in combating the underlying drivers of instability on the continent in the first place. What’s more, pursuing development with a view towards how each investment will impact ordinary Africans—not just on a macro, infrastructural level—in the one year, five year, and ten year timeframes. 

Additionally, the U.S. must also do more to understand its disproportionate historical contribution to carbon emissions—with the U.S. responsible for just under ¼ of all CO2 emissions in history—and begin to compensate African partners for the damages caused by rising temperatures. Finally, the United States must stop seeing African countries as merely pawns in the global war on terror or the great power competition with Russia and China, and recognize the growing necessity to make difficult choices when it comes to security cooperation with partners that commit human rights abuses, such as Sudan during the Obama and Trump administrations or the government of Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia. 

Pursuing such a strategy is, clearly, the more difficult of the options currently available, as it will likely require—at least for a time—reducing the number of “partner” countries the U.S. engages with, and will require constant monitoring and evaluation of those continuing partnerships to see if they are truly delivering for their citizens, as well as Americans. Furthermore, a reconfigured U.S. policy in Africa would also require incorporating a wider range of African voices in program development, including local NGOs, civil society, as well tribal and religious leaders to ensure that the needs of Africans at the local level are being satisfied by any bilateral cooperation.

However, in the long-term, such a new way of dealing with African partners would not only help improve the economic and social outcomes for ordinary Africans, but, by making clear that the U.S. will not support leaders who take advantage of their fellow citizens, it will remove some of the long-term underlying drivers of instability that have been plaguing the continent. Moreover, an Africans-centered foreign policy which delivers real dividends for African citizens would have the added benefit of convincing even larger swathes of Africans that the American model is superior to the Chinese or Russian one, ultimately aiding the U.S. in its great power competition with those countries. 

Pursuing a strategy of doing the right thing towards Africans and bringing their needs to the fore when partnering with African policymakers may be the longer, harder road to travel, but it will be the one that is most rewarding for both Africans and their American partners. In time, not only will such a reconfigured relationship provide economic benefits for Africans, but it will further open up an export market that will be home to the largest segment of the human population in thirty years, benefitting Americans, as well. Finally, a more altruistic American foreign policy towards Africa will likely be remembered by the citizens in partner countries, who will hopefully recognize the U.S.’ shift from paternal, neo-colonialist behavior to finally treating Africans as they deserve to be treated: as equal partners in a mutually beneficial relationship.

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Making U.S. Foreign Policy Work Better for Everyone (Part 1)

November 24, 2022

Author’s Note: Due to the short week and the holiday, what is below is merely the first half draft of this piece. The remainder will arrive on 12/2 in its usual manner with each recommendation more fully developed. In the meantime, please feel free to read what has been written so far and leave a comment below if you are so inclined.

Back on March 24th, a month after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Chinese state media service Xinhua News Agency published an article blasting the Euro-centric behavior of the United States, proclaiming that, “double standards were boldly on display when the U.S. urged European countries to absorb people fleeing Ukraine while [remaining] indifferent to refugees from certain war-torn places in the Middle East and parts of Asia, whose suffering has stemmed mainly from years-long, hegemony-sustaining military operations led by the United States.” 

Simultaneously, in Africa, “a lack of imagination and creativity, and overreliance on European former colonial powers, has stymied the emergence of the type of policy that fosters mutually beneficial partnerships with African countries,” leading to a situation where, “the United States has struggled to clearly define its strategic interests beyond an obsession with short-term stability that props up unpopular political regimes at the expense of the populations,” with U.S. support for a string of undemocratic leaders in Chad, Gabon, and Cameroon fueling, “instability in the long run and [undermining] U.S. support for democratization efforts in countries such as Zambia and Malawi, which have registered impressive democratic gains, and Zimbabwe, which is grappling with a repressive regime.” Meanwhile, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari alleged earlier this month that, “many of my peers are frustrated with Western hypocrisy and its inability to take responsibility” when it comes to the impact of climate change on Africa. 

As the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Catherine Nzuki and Mvemba Phezo Dizolele have argued, “the status quo of the U.S. approach to Africa—poorly articulated and at times heavy-handed and paternalistic—has left the United States flat-footed at a time of intensifying geopolitical contestation and more assertive African leaders,” as, “China continues to deepen its strong economic and political ties throughout Africa [and] Russian influence and paramilitary activities expand across the continent,” leaving, “the United States, once reliably the major foreign player on the continent”, adrift in a, “crowded field vying for influence.”

While the White House’s “U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa”, released late this summer, acknowledges that, “it is impossible to meet this era’s defining challenges without African contributions and leadership,” and thus attempts to articulate, “a new vision for how and with whom we engage,” in Africa, “recast[ing] traditional U.S. policy priorities—democracy and governance, peace and security, trade and investment, and development—as pathways to bolster the region’s ability to solve global problems alongside the United States,” it does not contain strong enough guarantees that the U.S. will not remain partners with malign actors who promise to adhere to U.S. counterterrorism goals. 

The essential issue remains that—absent a fundamental recalibration of U.S. foreign policy on the continent and a commitment to really focus on the welfare of ordinary Africans—the United States faces an underlying credibility issue in Africa that can and will poison any attempt to achieve the goals of fostering open societies, delivering democratic dividends, advancing economic opportunity, and supporting a just energy transition. What the United States needs is not a new quadrennial approach to the continent, but a fundamental reimagining of how the U.S. pursues its interests abroad, especially in Africa. 

Back in early 2020, before the Biden administration took office, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, director of policy planning at the State Department Salman Ahmed, and a number of other authors participated in The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Task Force on U.S. Foreign Policy for the Middle Class, which resulted in one of the most ambitious and wide-ranging foreign policy documents in recent years, “Making U.S. Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class.” The final report proposed integrating U.S. foreign policy into a national policy agenda, aimed at enhancing economic prospects for the U.S. middle class through a number of efforts—from tackling the disproportionate distribution of benefits from the continued spread of globalization to breaking down traditional silos between domestic and foreign policy in order to create better trade agreements—as, “a strong and prosperous middle class bolsters economic mobility, and strengthens social cohesion,” while also providing, “a ready and healthy workforce to power the national economy and [fund] a large tax base to pay for national security and social insurance programs.”

However, while the report’s general premise has generally remained emphasized, even in the Biden administration’s October 2022 National Security Strategy, U.S. support of Ukraine has led to a situation where, “American citizens are feeling the punishing effects of global economic sanctions against Russia,” as in the months leading up to and following the Russian invasion, “prices for fuel, food, rent, and other good surged due to pandemic labor shortages and supply-chain bottlenecks.” 

Therefore, while it is too early to render a final verdict on the relative success or failure of the Carnegie Endowment Task Forces’ foreign policy for the middle class, the transformed global landscape, as we approach a year of war in Ukraine, it is perhaps time to ask whether there is a better way to achieve a transformed U.S. foreign policy that benefits not only the U.S. middle class but also our partners’, while simultaneously reducing accusations of hypocrisy and double-standards that continue to plague U.S. efforts abroad. 

As such, it is time for a new foreign policy where the U.S.’ actions better align with its rhetoric, so that statement’s like President Biden’s February 2021 exhortation to State Department personnel that, “we must start with diplomacy rooted in America’s most cherished democratic values: defending freedom, championing opportunity, upholding universal rights, respecting the rule of law, and treating every person with dignity,” do not run afoul of continued U.S. support for strongmen and dictators throughout the continent.  A foreign policy that works for the American middle class is excellent; a foreign policy that works for our partners’ middle class as well is better. 

The China and Russia Challenge

Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western leaders pushed African and Asian leaders at the United Nations to condemn the attack, with a United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) vote that had 143 countries voting in favor, five countries against, and thirty-five abstaining. A later UNGA vote to suspend Russia’s membership in the UN Human Rights Council saw ninety-three countries vote in favor, with twenty-four against, and fifty-eight abstaining countries—the majority of those in Africa, including Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Uganda, amongst others. 

All of this comes after a period of time where Chinese firms had become more active in building roads, ports, and rail throughout Africa as part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, as, “from 2007 to 2020, Chinese infrastructure financing for sub-Saharan Africa was 2.5 times as big as all other bilateral institutions combined.” Furthermore, more important than the breadth of Chinese investment is its speed; as stated by former Senegalese President Abdolaye Wade, China moves faster than the West when it comes to such projects, noting that, “a contract that would take five years to discuss, negotiate and sign with the World Bank takes [just] three months when we have dealt with Chinese authorities,” leading to the average BRI infrastructure project taking just 1⁄3 of the time required by similar World Bank or African Development Bank projects. 

However, despite China’s increased flexibility, the picture is not entirely rosy when it comes to these Beijing-funded projects. As a May special report in the Economist noted, “China prides itself on a “demand-driven” approach: doing what African leaders want, to hell with technocrats in finance ministries.” Furthermore, a 2018 paper by Ann-Sofie Isaksson and Andreas Kotsadam in the Journal of Public Economics found that, “living within 50 km of sites where Chinese projects are currently being implemented is, indeed, associated with a greater probability of having experienced corruption,” and that the authors, “do not find an equivalent pattern around World Bank project sites.”

In addition, there remains a strong Russian presence on the continent as well. As CSIS’s Mvemba Phezo Dizolele noted before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittees on Africa, Global Health, and Global Human Rights & Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber, African states do not have the same adversarial relationship with Russia that much of the West does, noting that, “for several African countries, these ties with Russia preceded their independences, as the Russians supported them in their liberation struggles against colonial powers.” Furthermore, Dizolele pointed out that, “even though Russia suffered a major setback after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it maintained its presence in Africa and kept its vast network of friends across the continent.” Ultimately, Dizolele notes, “to date, the Russian Federation has defense cooperation agreements with twenty-seven countries, including Libya, Sudan, Cameroon, Angola, Tanzania, and Zambia,” which include a range of services from the exchange of defense and security policy information to military education and even the entry of Russian warships into African ports. 

More concerningly, Russia has even recently sought to bolster those ties to the African continent, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov undertaking a four-nation Africa trip in July which included stops in American partners Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda, and the Republic of the Congo. This comes after a 2019 Russia-Africa summit which was attended by Vladimir Putin and forty-three African leaders as well as a 2020 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute which named Russia as Africa’s premier source for arms imports. More specifically, Russia has also announced plans to enhance military and technical cooperation with Ethiopia, increased its use of private military contractors throughout the continent—even after failures in countries like Mozambique—and maintains a robust political and military relationship with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni. 

However, Russia too has been credibly accused of pursuing its own ulterior motives on the continent, with the U.S. ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield arguing before the Security Council that, “one of the most immediate and growing concerns in Africa is the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group’s strategy of exploiting the natural resources of the Central African Republic, Mali, and Sudan, as well as other countries.” 

Ultimately, what China and Russia offer their African partners is a transactional relationship that does not come with the persistent hectoring about human rights or democratization that typically accompanies partnership with Western nations. However, while a relationship with Russia or China might be seen as no-string-attached by some African governments, these partnerships are not aimed at the good of the African populace but rather the enrichment of the foreign partners or the benefit of the political careers of embattled African leaders such as Colonel Assimi Goïta in Mali or Faustin Archange Touadéra in the Central African Republic. As the Brookings Institution’s Joseph Siegle wrote back in February of this year, “to assess the future of Russia-Africa relations, therefore, it is necessary to be clear that the ‘partnerships’ that Russia seeks in Africa are not state- but elite-based. By helping these often illegitimate and unpopular leaders to retain power, Russia is cementing Africa’s indebtedness to Moscow.” 

Meanwhile, Beijing’s influence is more subtle but no less malign for ordinary Africans, as the country has used its increased commercial ties across Africa as a vector to promote its own authoritarian model of the future internet. Specifically, in Ethiopia, Chinese firms ZTE and Huawei were chosen as the country’s partners for a 4G network rollout, with the same firms also being selected to run a pre-commercial 5G services trial, as well. As international NGO Freedom House argued in their 2022 country report on Freedom on the Net in Ethiopia, “these relationships have led to growing fears that Chinese entities may be assisting the authorities in developing more robust information and communications technology (ICT) censorship and surveillance capacities,” a particular problem given that, “government surveillance of online and mobile phone communications is pervasive in Ethiopia,” and that, “Ethiopia’s telecommunications and surveillance infrastructure has been developed in part through investments from Chinese companies with backing from the Chinese government, creating strong suspicions that the Ethiopian government has implemented highly intrusive surveillance practices modeled on the Chinese system.” 

A More Ethical and and People-Focused Foreign Policy

With Russia and China primarily looking out for their own interests in Africa, it creates a space for the United States to step in and take on the role of the foreign partner who not only aims to take care of its own citizens, but looks out for the good of the average African, as well. Such a strategy may be initially more costly, and will run into the headwinds of a disappointingly still pervasive environment of military takeovers on the continent, but will have the benefit of positioning the U.S. as a true partner to sub-Saharan African populations that are expected to double over the next three decades. 

Just as with the Carnegie Endowment’s Foreign Policy for the Middle Class, what is needed in a new U.S. foreign policy towards Africa is a rebuilding of trust. However, that trust needs to be built not just with the elite leaders of African nations, but with their people. To that end, there are a number of overarching recommendations that bear highlighting.

First, the U.S. needs to be fundamentally ready to immediately sever the flow of security cooperation assistance when human rights or democratic values are being trampled upon by African partners’ leadership. Too often, U.S. involvement in countries such as Ethiopia, Mozambique, or Uganda are simply viewed through the lens of whatever the security crisis of the moment is. 

For instance, when it comes to Uganda, despite a 2022 Human Rights Watch report that documented, “years of enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrests and detention, torture, rape, extortion, and forced labor by Ugandan security forces,” and the country’s top 30 ranking as one of the world’s countries most at risk for the onset of mass killings, the country is still a major recipient of U.S. foreign aid, totaling some $8.1 billion in the period between 2001 and 2019, as well as the lion’s share of $2 billion in train and support assistance for participation in the African Union Mission in Somalia—a country where the U.S. retains a strong interest in fighting al-Qaeda but wishes to keep at an arms distance due to its own poor experience there in the 1990s. While back in 2014, the U.S. cut aid to Uganda and canceled a regional military exercise in response to a Ugandan law imposing harsh penalties on homosexuality, that military aid was eventually resumed despite the Museveni government in recent years has been attempting to resurrect the anti-gay laws and even extend them to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. 

Similarly, in Mozambique—where U.S. special forces troops last year began training Mozambican forces to fight Al-Sunna wa Jama’a (ASWJ) in Cabo Delgado—U.S. aid is still provided despite the fact that, as former U.S. ambassador to Mozambique Dennis Jett wrote in Foreign Policy in March 2020, “Mozambique has become a borderline failed state, its democracy a sham, and its energy riches won’t guarantee that its security or governance will improve in the future.” The United States continues to support its partners in Maputo despite eight major civil society observer groups noting that the country’s October 2019 elections, “were not free, fair and transparent and the results are not credible,” citing “irregularities” in the counting of votes, the lack of an “audit trail” registration, and ballot-box stuffing among other forms of Frelimo vote inflation. While the U.S. does have some interest in fighting ASWJ, it hard to imagine a continued American interest in Mozambique’s ills if it were not for the $30 billion investment that American multinational ExxonMobil has in Mozambican liquified natural gas, or possibly American partner France’s TotalEnergies’ $20 billion worth of natural gas projects in the country. 

Second, the United States must pursue its future relationships not only with African elites in politics and business, but ordinary Africans who often do not receive the benefits of their governments international collaborations with Russia or China. As was noted in a May special report for The Economist, not only do Africans find it difficult to reach senior levels in the Chinese firms that have poured into the continent in recent years, but, “in Congo and elsewhere Chinese miners have fostered poor labour practices,” and, “in Nigeria Chinese cartels in ceramic and wigs have locked out local competitors.” Furthermore, “environmental degradation is common,” the report notes. Despite this, as another contemporaneous Economist report notes, the U.S. overall response has been underwhelming, as the Biden administration’s Build Back Better World—an attempt at a “values-driven, high-standard, and transparent infrastructure partnership led by major democracies to help narrow the $40+ trillion infrastructure need in the developing world”—have major flaws, as “B3W is little more than a new label for inter-agency co-operation in Washington.”

Third, the United States will need to take more steps to own its responsibilities on the continent, including when it comes to its differentiated responsibility for the enormous impact that global warming has had and will continue to have on the African continent. Mercifully, this seems to be a step that the Biden administration has acknowledged, with the U.S. recently dropping its long-held objections to providing compensation for the costs of the destruction brought on by climate change. 

Fourth, the United States needs to be less concerned with fighting the Global War on Terrorism in Africa and more concerned with the underlying drivers behind these actors. As Jihad Mashamoun recently wrote in a piece for the Middle East Institute, a country such as Sudan, which is geostrategically important to U.S. interest sin Africa and the Middle East, has leaders in  Lt.-Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy Lt.-Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as “Hemedti”), which, “are banking [on their geostrategic importance] as they seek to press the Biden administration to focus its Sudan policy on stability, rather than supporting calls for democracy.” 

As Mashamoun points out, “both Burhan and Hemedti have worked to encourage the U.S. to continue its counter-terrorism cooperation with Sudan,” with the, “aim…to convince the U.S. to drop its support for popular calls for democracy and accept their autocratic military rule.” Mashamoun further notes that the Bush and Obama administration’s focus on stability and counter-terrorism was a result of the demands of the war on terror, which saw the Bashir regime offer to share intelligence on Islamist groups in the country as part of a hoped-for normalization of relations. 

While normalization was impeded by Bashir’s involvement in the Darfur conflict and genocide, the Obama administration still ultimately eased sanctions on its way out of the door in order to reward the Bashir regime for its counter-terrorism commitments. Further pursuing a simply transactional relationship with the country, the Trump administration removed Sudan from the state sponsors of terrorism list in exchange for Khartoum agreeing to join the Abraham Accords as well as finally pay $335 million in restitution for victims of the 1998 bombings at US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya as well as the 2000 attack on the USS Cole and the murder of a USAID employee in the Sudanese capital. While the Biden administration has subsequently suspended Abraham Accords-related assistance to Sudan due to the coup d’état that dissolved the military-civilian Sovereign Council that was to guide the country on its path towards democracy, the administration has reiterated its commitment to advancing the Abraham Accords, stating that, “they are a positive development that have had clear benefits for Israel and the region,” making it likely that full democratization will not be one of the requirements for Sudan to resume receiving Abraham Accords funding.

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A Brief Hiatus

October 14, 2022

I wanted to take a quick moment to address the dearth of posts in recent weeks. As mentioned on my social media, I have been pursuing some professional development in recent weeks, completing certifications from the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance and the United States Institute of Peace in Security Sector Governance and Reform, Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism, Conflict Analysis, the UN-Civil Military Coordination, as well as various courses on Peacebuilding. 

These courses will improve future articles by providing me with a better baseline understanding of the fundamental elements of the field and the essential knowledge that practitioners need to have. As such, I want to let any readers know that I will be continuing to pursue these courses over the next several weeks.

However, that does not mean that the blog is going away; far from it. I simply hope to use these certification courses to not only improve myself and my knowledge of the field, but to provide readers with a better product when I do return. 

Thank you for your time and for being a reader of Foreign Policy Reviews. If you do not already, you can follow me for updates on Twitter: @sean_p_parker or on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-parker-99a8391ba/

I endeavor to return before the Thanksgiving Holiday. Until then, please feel free to leave a comment below or reach out to me at the links above. Have a wonderful weekend!

-Sean Parker

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An Enormous Undertaking: Differing Perspectives on Post-War Reconstruction in Ukraine

September 23, 2022

Earlier this summer, the heads of state and government, ministers, and high representatives of forty-two countries, as well as the representatives of the Council of Europe, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Commission, the European Investment Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development signed the “Lugano Declaration” as part of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano, Switzerland. The document—which condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine and reiterated those countries full support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine—committed those countries, in a legally non-binding way, to supporting Ukraine from its, “path from early to long-term recovery and linking this to Ukraine’s European perspective and EU candidate country status,” as well as permitting Ukraine to guide the process. The document further stressed the importance of transparency and accountability in the implementation of Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan

Despite broad agreement on the need to rebuild Ukraine following the conflict’s ultimate resolution, there is less clarity on the specific efforts that will need to be involved, as well as the total cost for Ukraine’s partners. In July of 2022, Ukraine’s National Recovery Council presented Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan, which envisioned total reconstruction and recovery costs of more than $750 billion, including both public and private investment. The following month, the World Bank came out with, “Ukraine: Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment,” which put the international funding requirement at a more manageable $349 billion, or 1.6 times Ukraine’s 2021 GDP. Furthermore, fitting comfortably within these figures is the Centre for Economic Policy Research’s April 2022, “A Blueprint for the Reconstruction of Ukraine,” which put the total figure for reconstruction at between €200 and €500 billion. 

Whichever figure is ultimately correct, it is clear that Kyiv will need vast amounts of foreign assistance if Ukrainians are to overcome the damage caused by the Russian invasion and the resultant casualties, displacement, and damage to homes, businesses, social institutions and industry. While the events of the war will likely reverberate across future generations in Ukraine regardless of what the international community does during the reconstruction, efforts to create a more digital, ecologically-friendly, democratic, and EU-oriented Ukraine will pay benefits not only for the people of Ukraine, but for Europe, and the security of the transatlantic community, as well. To that end, this paper will attempt to examine both the World Bank and Kyiv’s estimations for the costs of reconstruction, along with how each of their analyses fits within the expert communities’ collective vision for how reconstruction should be conducted. 

The World Bank’s Vision for Ukraine Reconstruction

Before examining Kyiv’s proposals for how to rebuild post-war Ukraine, it is perhaps best to first examine what other international experts feel are the best ways to go about determining both the nature of the damage imposed by Russia. Therefore, the best recent analysis to examine is the World Bank’s August 2022, “Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment,” which provides a fairly comprehensive look at the damage caused by the Russian aggression, as well as a brief summary of the estimated current and future reconstruction needs. 

The report breaks out the damage caused by Russia into: social sectors—including housing, education, health, and tourism; productive sectors—including agriculture, irrigation and water, industry, and finance; infrastructure sectors—including energy, extractives, transport, telecommunications, and municipal services; and cross-cutting sectors—such as environmental, emergency-response, and public administration. 

Altogether, the World Bank authors put the total losses through June 1, 2022 at $252 billion for all sectors, with a total reconstruction funding estimate of $348.5 billion. The World Bank’s Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) methodology has been developed jointly by the EU, World Bank, and UN, and applied globally in post-disaster and conflict contexts to inform recovery and reconstruction planning. It defines damage as the direct costs of destroyed and damaged physical assets valued in monetary terms, with costs estimated based on replacing or repairing physical assets and infrastructure, based on the replacement price that existed before the war’s outbreak. Furthermore, it defines losses as changes in economic flows resulting from the war, valued in monetary terms. 

The World Bank’s report then proceeds to outline the high-level consequences of the war, noting that 6.8 million Ukrainians have fled the country and that the country’s GDP is estimated to shrink by around 35% in 2022 due to the war, causing poverty to increase ten times from a low base level to nearly 21% by year’s end. While the report does note that economic activity has shown signs of improvement since April due to active combat being confined to certain areas, the authors note that the recovery has shown signs of stagnating at a low level as around 60% of companies work below their prewar capacity utilization levels. 

Currently causing the most strain on Ukraine’s coffers is the fact that tax revenue collection has dramatically fallen off since the outbreak of hostilities, resulting in an over 30% annual decline in total tax revenues, crippling the country’s budget despite efforts to cut non-essential expenditures and capital spending. When coupled with the Russian grain blockade and Ukraine’s necessary increase in defense spending, it has opened a, “nonmilitary fiscal need of over $15 billion in the second half of 2022,” if the country wishes to maintain its critical public services. 

The World Bank authors also discuss the non-monetary costs of the war, noting that nearly 15% of the country’s resident population has fled the country, which will have huge long-term knock-on effects, even if the war concludes in Ukraine’s favor; as even optimistic studies show that at least 15% of those refugees will remain outside of Ukraine once the war ends, causing a large hit to the working-age labor force. 

Also affected harshly by the war are Ukraine’s 2.7 million people with disabilities, 163,886 of whom are children. Moreover, the report notes that women and children, as a group, are disproportionately affected by the war, with women suffering a steeper drop-off in employment than their male counterparts have. As such, the authors propose that recovery and reconstruction efforts must not only consider activities geared toward repairing infrastructure and clearing mines, but that they must address the large inflows of IDPs, the needs of persons with disabilities in need of medical rehabilitation or prosthetics caused by the war, and the provision of services regarding justice for sexual and gender-based violence against women. 

The report then proceeds to analyze the damage, losses, and needs for the social, productive, infrastructure, and cross-cutting sectors in Ukraine. The authors begin with Ukraine’s housing sector, where total damage is estimated at around $39.2 billion, encompassing nearly 700,000 destroyed apartment building units, over 110,000 single-family homes, and 13,000 dormitories. In sum, some 817,000 total residential units have been impacted by the war, with 38% destroyed beyond repair. As such, the World Bank authors estimate that there is a total need for $69 billion over ten years to cover the immediate and short-term goals of temporary rental housing and rental subsidies for displaced households and the creation of a housing reconstruction and recovery strategy. Moreover, in the medium- to long-term, the report argues, Ukraine will need another $35.9 billion to repair partially damaged housing units and winterize them; rebuild fully destroyed housing units; decontaminate, demolish, and remove debris from destroyed buildings; and repair key municipal services to accompany the housing repair. 

Boarding school in Mykolaivka city (Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine) after Russian shelling in the night on 2 August 2022. One person is known to be killed/Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=428999542601274&set=pcb.428999732601255
Boarding school in Mykolaivka city (Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine) after Russian shelling in the night on 2 August 2022. One person is known to be killed/Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=428999542601274&set=pcb.428999732601255

Another area requiring funding is the education sector, which, the report notes, has seen $3.9 billion in damages and losses, including the total destruction of 178 educational buildings, along with the partial damage of another 1,700, impairing the education of young Ukrainians. As such, the authors estimate a total recovery cost of $9.2 billion, with $2.8 billion of that needed to begin reconstruction of damaged educational institutions and investment in service delivery restoration, along with another $6.5 billion to complete those goals over the next decade.

In terms of the Ukrainian health sector, the authors show $7.8 billion in damage and losses to 581 health care facilities, resulting in a total recovery need of $15.1 billion to cover service delivery restoration, rebuilding lost or damaged infrastructure, and the building of new infrastructure to meet Ukraine’s now-increased health needs. To remedy this, the authors propose an initial injection of $1.2 billion to cover these initial investments, with another $13.9 billion needed over the next decade, to accompany a “build back better” approach that provides for new healthcare functionalities, as well as an increased investment in mental health and rehabilitation centers to address some of the long-term physical and psychological effects of the war.

When it comes to the area of social protection and livelihoods, the report estimates a total damage of $200 million with losses reaching $4.5 billion—including damage to residential care units, sanatoriums, senior-care facilities, rehabilitation facilities, and social centers—resulting in about 4.8 million jobs lost, or about 30% of pre-war employment in Ukraine. To enable the jobs and social protection sector recovery will require an initial $8.1 billion to cover an expansion of programs aimed at stimulating employment and readying for long-term recovery, as well as rebuilding social infrastructure. Furthermore, the authors advocate for the further funding of Ukraine’s support mechanism to vulnerable groups, including low-income families, through the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) program) to cover Ukrainians’ basic needs, as well as the funding of the housing and utility subsidy to prevent energy poverty during Ukraine’s harsh winters. Long-term, the authors propose another $12.5 billion to help rehabilitate certain war-affected groups like orphans, IDPs, and persons with disabilities. 

In the culture and tourism sector, the authors point to $20.4 billion in damages and losses to over 800 cultural properties, including the All Saints Monastery of the Sviatohirsk Lavra, and the Kharkiv National Academic Opera and Ballet Theater. To reconstruct the buildings and help the sector recover, they propose a total of $5.2 billion over the next decade, with $1.6 billion for emergency and relief actions to protect damaged sites and reduce further damage, and another $3.6 billion to restore the creative industry and safeguard Ukraine’s cultural heritage

Damage caused to the hotel of Sviatohirsk Lavra (Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine) by Russian bombing on March 12, 2022/Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=329404832548506&set=pcb.329405222548467
Damage caused to the hotel of Sviatohirsk Lavra (Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine) by Russian bombing on March 12, 2022/Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=329404832548506&set=pcb.329405222548467

When it comes to Ukraine’s productive sectors, the price tag is even higher, given the extent of damage done by Russian forces. For instance, the agricultural sector has seen over $30 billion in damage to machinery and equipment, losses due to lower production and higher production costs, as well as the, “decrease in farm gate prices of export oriented commodities such as wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower seeds.” The authors envision a total recovery funding need of $18.7 billion, with $10 billion required immediately to “build back better” the physical assets damaged by the war, provide direct support to farmers through grants and short-term credit lines to re-plant crops, and to clear the explosive remnants of war and war-pollutants from arable land. Long-term, the authors envision a need for another $8.7 billion to cover more direct support to farmers and agricultural banks as well as a larger investment in agricultural public institutions so that they can better support the sector’s recovery. 

Wheat field near Andriivka settlement in Kharkiv Oblast of Ukraine after Russian shelling on 5 July 2022./Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=409543461215153&set=pcb.409544717881694
Wheat field near Andriivka settlement in Kharkiv Oblast of Ukraine after Russian shelling on 5 July 2022./Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=409543461215153&set=pcb.409544717881694

For Ukraine’s irrigation, drainage, and water resource management, which has only seen about $300 million in damages, the authors still envision a total recovery need of $7.5 billion to not only repair damaged systems and to restore hydraulic facilities and water management systems; but long-term to modernize and begin construction of new irrigation and drainage systems, water supply networks, water pipes, hydraulic protection structures, dams, and drainage and water management systems. 

Commerce and industry, on the other hand, has seen much greater damages and losses, totaling $57.2 billion, with most of the damage caused to industry, including the destruction of large and medium-sized private enterprises such as the two steel plants in Donetsk that eliminated half the country’s steel production capacity. To recover and rebuild, the authors calculate a $20.8 billion price tag, including $6.6 billion in the short term in order to provide financial support to firms, rebuild Ukraine’s logistics infrastructure, streamline business regulations, facilitate domestic and foreign investment, and ensure private sector participation in reconstruction. The authors further propose another $14.2 billion over the medium- to long-term to address obstacles present before the conflict and offer financial support to firms to help them enter into new markets and move into higher-value-added product sectors. 

Finance and banking, however, has fared somewhat better, suffering only $8.13 billion in damages and losses, as losses in business revenues and household incomes have impacted the quality of banks’ loan portfolios. To support the sector’s recovery, the World Bank report outlines $8 billion in total recovery needs, including an immediate $6.4 billion to safeguard the financial system and maintain Ukrainians confidence in it; as well as measures to further assess financial institutions’ losses, ensuring the sustainability of Ukraine’s Deposit Guarantee Fund, developing a plan for phasing out any special measures for insured parties put in place during the war, and reforming Ukraine’s non-performing loans resolution mechanisms. Long-term, the authors foresee a need to strengthen bank and non-bank regulations, resume the flow of credit into the economy by strengthening governance in state-owned banks, building a modern financial system infrastructure, and introducing a war insurance pool to cover war risks during and after the war with the help of external donors; all of which is estimated to cost just $1.6 billion. 

In terms of Ukraine’s infrastructure sectors, the energy and extractives sector has seen $14.7 billion in damages, and these losses have seen companies like Naftogaz, DTEK, and Ukrenergo face liquidity crises. To repair the damage and recover, the authors propose $10.4 billion in total funding, including $7.3 billion for closing liquidity gaps for those aforementioned firms; preparing the country for the winter heating season; ensuring backup power and heating solutions at key places like schools, hospitals, and IDP centers; and providing fuel for internal transport in the short-term. Long-term needs of $3.1 billion include building back destroyed or damaged infrastructure to modern, more efficient standards; creating better regulations to ensure greater environmental safety and sustainability; and basing reconstruction on best practices, aligned with the European acquis

When it comes to Ukraine’s transport sector, total damages and losses are again high, reaching $56 billion, with the largest concentrations of damage in local oblast, village and communal railways, highways, road bridges on national roads, and railways rolling stock, equipment and other assets. Total losses are more centered on losses caused by losing access to the Black Sea due to the Russian blockade. To repair roads in the short-term will require $8.9 billion, with the authors indicating the highest need for reconstruction in eastern and southern oblasts, which have seen the majority of the fighting. However, the authors foresee a need for another $65 billion over the next decade to address the damage.

Non-working railway station in Chasiv Yar city (Donetsk region of Ukraine) after Russian shelling on 9 July 2022 at 04:50/Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=412495887584973&set=pcb.412496674251561
Non-working railway station in Chasiv Yar city (Donetsk region of Ukraine) after Russian shelling on 9 July 2022 at 04:50/Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=412495887584973&set=pcb.412496674251561

As far as the telecommunications and digital sector, the price tag is not quite so high, with damages and losses totaling just $1.3 billion; and the total recovery needs just $3.3 billion to cover the, “restoration of broadband, private postal service, and mobile coverage,” in areas that have been brought back under government control as well as long-term needs to cover higher services costs during the recovery period. 

Water supply and sanitation, on the other hand, will require a bit more funding to address the $8.1 billion in damages and losses, including, “the destruction of the hydroelectric power center of the Oskil reservoir in the Kharkivska oblast,” early in the war which has caused significant portions of the population in Luhansk and Donetsk to have limited or no access to water. To cover reconstruction and recovery, the authors propose $5.4 billion, including $3.5 billion to immediately support, “the additional energy and fuel costs until [water supply and sanitation] utilities recover their prewar revenue levels,” as well as another $1.9 billion in the long term to “build back better” critical water supply and sanitation assets at the oblast level; factor in future growth when optimizing systems; and take into account the broader water challenges facing the country to ensure new services are properly sized and easy to maintain. 

Finally, in terms of Ukraine’s municipal services, which have seen $6.6 billion in damages, the authors foresee a total recovery and reconstruction bill of $5.7 billion, including $1.9 billion in near-term costs and $3.9 billion over the long-term to ensure the continuation and improvement of municipal services; coordinate debris removal and dispose of harmful waste; adopt immediate-to-medium-term citywide urban recovery action plans; update local land registries in coordination with the national-level ministry; and undertake repairs and reconstruction efforts. 

When it comes to the cross-cutting sectors in Ukraine, such as the environment, natural resources management, and forestry, the damages are, again, somewhat lower, with total damages and losses to the environment calculated at $3.2 billion as a result of over 1,200 cases of damage to the environment caused by the war, including damage to protected ecosystems and damage caused by fire. As such, the authors foresee a $1.2 billion recovery requirement, with a short-term need of $400 million to carry out a comprehensive environmental cleanup related to the collection, safe disposal, and treatment of vast amounts of military waste; as well as another $900 million to conduct an environmental risk assessment and reforest burned areas, expand forest nursery capacity, and align with the European Green Deal to, “maximize sustainable production and export of long-lived forest products.”

5-storey house in Bakhmut city (Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine) after Russian rocket strike on 17 May 2022. As for 18 May, 5 people are known to be killed and 4 - injured/Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=375711414596754&set=pcb.375712007930028
5-storey house in Bakhmut city (Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine) after Russian rocket strike on 17 May 2022. As for 18 May, 5 people are known to be killed and 4 – injured/Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=375711414596754&set=pcb.375712007930028

For Ukraine’s emergency response and civil protection, which has seen around $300 million in damages and losses, including major losses related to the extra hours put in by rescue responders due to increased demands for emergency operations caused by the war. For recovery and reconstruction, the authors propose $500 million in the short-term to purchase 669 fully equipped firefighting and rescue vehicles; establishing oblast-level mobile command control points and four major logistics hubs to support rescue; construction of hangars for helicopters to allow state emergency services to respond to increased demands; and for establishing a sea and river rescue unit to address the issue of mined areas in Ukrainian waters. Furthermore, the authors envision another $200 million in long-term investments to rebuild moderately damaged emergency response buildings and to purchase the equipment needed to replace already damaged items. 

Regarding Ukraine’s damaged justice and public administration sector, which has seen just $103 million in damage, the authors propose $200 million in total recovery needs, including $80 million in the short-term and $100 million in the long-term to train new judges, prosecutors, investigators, police, and customs officers; reconstruct and repair courthouses; create temporary solutions like mobile courts or temporary court locations for priority cases; and to restore judicial institutions with the mandate to investigate and combat corruption. 

Finally, there is the area of land decontamination, which has caused an estimated $73.2 billion in losses to Ukraine due to the extensive use of anti-tank/anti-vehicle mines by both Russian and Ukrainian forces. As such, the authors foresee a total recovery need of $73.2 billion for decontamination, including $11 billion in the short-term to perform surveys and demining; $58.5 million for procurement of equipment to scale up decontamination efforts; as well as training for staff to procure reliable equipment. Long-term, the authors foresee another $62.2 billion for long-term clean-up efforts, which are estimated to take over thirty years to complete; an unsurprising figure given the length of time it has taken to remove unexploded ordnance in Laos. 

Beyond this detailed accounting and a brief outline of what the Ukrainian National Recovery Plan looks like, the World Bank authors propose a number of guiding principles that Kyiv could consider embracing, based on past international experience in post-conflict reconstruction. They include balancing Ukraine’s urgent and medium-to-long-term needs by first ensuring the safety of Ukrainians, while still ensuring that reconstruction goals, “build on the foundation of green, resilient, and inclusive development.” 

The authors also propose that reconstruction be strategically prioritized to those sectors and geographic regions that can more readily absorb funding; that aid be balanced to those in the highest need; and that aid provision be inclusive and equitable. Furthermore, the authors argue that there needs to be high-level government leadership and coordination that still takes into account the opinions and needs of local actors and the desires of the community. 

Moreover, when it comes to the practical considerations regarding the implementation of recovery activities, the authors state that Ukraine could learn from prior international experience by properly identifying, prioritizing, and sequencing recovery projects; making use of common systems and processes for procurement, financial management, and risk management; developing the institutional and management capacity of recovery implementation units; mobilizing technical project preparation through robust environmental and social assessments with public consultation processes; and creating a financial strategy for reconstruction in each of the aforementioned sectors, that incorporates funding flows from grants, loans, and international guarantees.

Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan

As Kyiv will likely be assuming ownership over the vast amount of reconstruction projects in Ukraine, it is also important to examine what it views as the most important steps needed to repair the damage done from the Russian invasion and to rebuild the country in a more European orientation. The National Recovery Plan (NRP), which offers fifteen major program areas for reconstruction, aims not only to address the damage caused during the war, but attempts to use the reconstruction to build a new Ukraine that no longer lags behind its Central European peers in terms of economic performance. 

For the authors of the National Recovery Plan, integration with the EU is the sine qua non for the country’s reconstruction, as only by integrating with European and G7 economic markets will Ukrainian businesses have access to the markets needed to support robust GDP growth of at least 7% by 2032. To achieve EU accession, the NRP recognizes that Ukraine needs a more attractive business environment, with efforts to address corruption and improve the rule of law in the country—as well as a more efficient and effective labor market, better entrepreneurship development and small- and medium-sized enterprise support, and easier access to capital. In addition, the authors of the report recognize that such an environment requires efforts to create more macro-financial stability, which requires a more effective banking system and financial markets, more effective public wealth management, and a taxation and customs system that promotes economic growth rather than burdens individuals and corporations. 

To achieve those goals, the NRP’s main areas of effort—or what it refers to as “transformation engines”—are to modernize and improve Ukraine’s infrastructure; improve the quality of life to encourage Ukrainians to return to the country; and to prioritize key sectors for transformation in order to unlock private investment and better capitalize on economic opportunities. By doing so, the authors believe that Ukraine can better achieve economic synergy with the European Union by: contributing to innovation through a strong Ukrainian talent pool; contributing to the European Green Deal through Ukraine’s mostly-untapped supply of renewable energy sources and achieving a 65% reduction in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels; strengthening European energy security through Ukraine’s energy sources; and supporting EU economic growth thanks to an expansion of the Ukrainian market following reconstruction and reforms. 

Key prerequisites for achieving these goals are that Ukraine both needs to strengthen its overall institutional capacity and to continue efforts towards “de-oligarchization”, which had been moving forward even before the war began. As such, the country will need to continue its efforts towards public data transparency, including the centralization and digitalization of public registers and ensuring they are secure; completing reforms of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office, and the Asset Recovery and Management Agency; restoring the work of the High Qualification Commission of Judges of Ukraine and the Supreme Council of Justice; improving corporate governance through new corporate governance legislation, continue efforts towards privatizing some state-owned enterprises (SOEs) like EnergoAtom; professionalizing the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine and synchronizing it with European best practices; and reforming the public service sector, including digitalization of key public services and the creation of an architecture for better climate governance across Ukrainian government ministries. 

Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan then proceeds to outline fifteen individual “National Programs” to boost recovery and achieve the target GDP growth rate by 2032, including some estimates of the potential costs involved, as well as the possible barriers to achieving those goals and the intermediate steps that should be taken along the way. While the recovery plan is more vague on certain individual National Programs—such as how much strengthening Ukraine’s defense and security sector will cost, and what exact steps will be required to ensure Ukraine meet’s the EU’s Copenhagen criteria for accession—it does at least attempt to provide an intellectual framework for the necessity of each individual programmatic goal, with goals one through four attempts to meet the strategic imperatives of national security and EU integration and access to markets, goals five through seven the enablers required to meet those goals, and goals eight through fifteen the engines behind the transformation of Ukraine’s economic and civic life. 

Sloviansk thermal power plant (Donetsk region of Ukraine) after Russian shelling on 17 September 2022/Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=417203197216383&set=pcb.417203803882989
Sloviansk thermal power plant (Donetsk region of Ukraine) after Russian shelling on 17 September 2022/Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=417203197216383&set=pcb.417203803882989

For example, National Program number four, which covers efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s energy system resilience, as well as achieve the EU’s zero-carbon energy transition, envisions a total funding requirement around $128.5 billion to cover efforts to, amongst other things, expand Ukraine’s interconnections with the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), modernize the country’s gas transmission and distribution networks to more easily reach European markets, build out Ukraine’s renewable energy sources, including the development of biofuels, and build smart grids throughout the country to help overcome electrical generation issues in Ukraine. 

Included in these efforts are attempts to grow nuclear power production from 21.8 million tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) in 2019 to 30.2 million toe in 2032 by performing lifetime extensions at eight nuclear power blocks by 2030 and building fuel fabrication and excess waste storage facilities to stop Ukrainian reliance on Russia for those tasks. Other major efforts to increase Ukraine’s energy security include efforts towards increasing the supply of renewable energy sources—including for hydrogen production—from just 1% of supply or 1 million toe in 2019 to 15% by 2032, or 13.3 million toe. While there are challenges posed by such a pivot, including a need to better balance Ukraine’s energy system on a minute-by-minute basis, such efforts will not only reduce Ukraine’s reliance on Russia for energy, but it will make Ukraine a more suitable partner for Europe in terms of the European Green Deal. 

In addition to increasing Ukraine’s low-carbon energy supply sources, National Program number four also envisions a reduction in Ukraine’s use of coal from 18% of the country’s total supply—or 14.8 million toe in 2019—to just 2% in 2032; though the authors of the plan acknowledge that such a transition is unlikely until after the war is completed and extra capacity from nuclear and renewable sources are increased, as mentioned above. Similarly, the plan proposes reducing natural gas production from 32% of the grid to just 26% by 2032, as Ukraine currently imports about 30% of the natural gas it consumes, making it vulnerable to Russian pressures and global price fluctuations. Moreover, the plan envisions a reduction in oil imports from Russia, Belarus, and Germany, amongst others, bringing oil’s share of Ukraine’s energy supply from 17% in 2019 to just 11% in 2032; though this will require expanding the oil product interconnector with the European Union, building a strategic oil product reserve, and expanding refining capacities at the Kremenchuk refinery. 

While improving energy generation and reducing Ukraine’s carbon footprint is deemed a “strategic imperative” of the NRP, the recovery plan also lists a number of enabling programmatic efforts, including National Program number five, which aims to boost the business environment in Ukraine with the ultimate goal of increasing the number of new businesses started in the country. Through increased deregulation, a reformed taxes and customs administration, more robust support for businesses, improved infrastructure, efforts to address the employment environment, and efforts to improve reconstruction procurement, the National Recovery Plan aims to make it easier and more productive to do business in Ukraine. Some efforts in the NRP towards deregulation include addressing Ukraine’s monopolization of markets and state capture by oligarchs by running a “Red Tape reduction program”, with a crowdsourcing of ideas, and a review of the degree of concentration in key industries like energy. 

Efforts towards achieving an overhaul of the tax and customs administrations in Ukraine include an attempt to transform the country’s tax service from one that the World Bank called, “complex, ineffective and inequitable,” into one that is more compliance and service-oriented and transforming the country’s notoriously corrupt customs services into a security and trade-facilitation focused organization that no longer causes Ukrainian taxpayers to lose out on billions per year.

Meanwhile, national program number five also proposes efforts to improve support to small- and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs), including a further development of Diia.Business as a one-stop-shop for information for SMEs; and expanding the mandate of the Investment Promotion Agency, UkraineInvest, to proactively solicit foriegn direct investment for reconstruction investment projects. 

National program five also proposes efforts to improve infrastructure in Ukraine, especially the time required for firms to connect to the electrical grid, which reached a glacial 267 days in Ukraine in 2019, compared to just 113 in neighbor Poland. To achieve this, the NRP’s authors propose simplifying the process of land allotment for connection to the electrical grid; and including the charge for guaranteed capacity to the existing electricity tariff, so as to incentivize facilities not making active use of the grid to disconnect. 

In terms of program five’s efforts to improve the labor market, it proposes a method of incentivizing new business creation through the provision of government financing; increasing labor mobility by funding Ukrainians relocations to other regions in the country for job purposes and simplifying regulations for foreigners to work in Ukraine and for Ukrainians to work abroad; launching a public-private partnership re-employment program with efforts towards providing new job skills to up to 1 million Ukrainians; and transforming Ukraine’s State Employment Service from an agency focused more on providing a check to the unemployed to a more re-employment-focused organization. 

The section covering National Program number five closes with an acknowledgement that local businesses may face barriers when participating in Ukraine’s reconstruction due to poor access to financing, infrastructure, and labor supply. Therefore, the program proposes establishing procurement practices for reconstruction projects in line with the European Investment Bank’s guidelines on margin of preference for goods manufactured or produced in-country. In total, program five is estimated to cost around $5 billion, with the major costs being related to transforming the customs service, increasing labor mobility, launching the public-private partnership reskilling program, and establishing the program to incentivize new business creation. 

Finally, Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan also has a number of what it refers to as “transformation engines”, or programs that will unlock the conditions needed to further improve the economic and social life of Ukrainians moving forward. For instance, National Program number eight—which aims to grow the value-added sector of Ukraine’s economy by accelerating the country’s overall competitiveness—carries an estimated price tag of around $50 billion over the nine year period between 2023-2032, and aims to develop the country’s agricultural, metallurgical, machine-building, construction, furniture, and IT sectors. 

To be more specific, while Ukraine’s agricultural sector can make use of plentiful land resources and relatively good levels of competitiveness in some individual crops, the country faces issues of low processing levels—with crop farming accounting for 73% of agricultural output—a small value-add sector, and high-levels of reliance on bulky imports of things like seeds and fertilizer. To address these shortcomings, the NRP proposes that Ukraine begins: developing more processing plants for corn syrup, wheat, and sunflower oil; developing high value-added sectors like berries, fruits, and milk; and installing new irrigations systems in order to produce productivity—all of which the authors estimate at a cost of around $37 billion, including both private and public investment. 

Another illustrative “transformation engine” listed in the NRP is National Program number twelve, which aims to improve Ukraine’s education system by fully implementing the New Ukrainian School reform program; improving the performance of lagging schools through more financing and teacher rotations; modernizing regional schools that can serve as flagships for the region; improving teacher professional development and compensation to improve overall teacher quality; harmonizing Ukraine’s higher education system with the European Higher Education Area; reforming Ukraine’s vocational education curriculum; creating a system of performance-based grants for researchers and science Centers of Excellence in cooperation with other international centers; and the creation of an overarching digital education passport for students. With a total estimated cost of under $5 billion, the goal of this program is to ultimately transform the labor force in Ukraine in order to make it more competitive with its European partners. 

Ultimately, Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan envisions a organizational set-up wherein twenty-four different working groups coordinate content development for each of the fifteen priority programs, aligning them with the priorities of the legislature and executive, and synthesize final program blueprints to be submitted to Verkhovna Rada Ministers and Deputy Ministers. Those Ministers will work with other members of the Ukrainian parliament, as well as a representative of the Office of the President of Ukraine, to review the submitted programs and submit them to the Secretariat of the Cabinet of Ministers and the Reforms Delivery Office for technical, organization, analytical, and information support. Those bodies will then report to the Secretary of the National Recovery Council—supported by an Advisory Board consisting of reputable international exports to review and endorse key decisions of the NRP. The Secretary of the National Recovery Council then reports to the three co-heads of the National Recovery Council—which are the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, and the Prime Minister—which ultimately reports to the President.

The World Bank’s Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment vs. Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan: Squaring the Circle

While the World Bank assessment and the Ukrainian NRP end up with vastly different estimations as to the total cost for reconstruction and recovery, they do somewhat agree on the broad outlines of the task involved. For instance, while the NRP carries a $128.5 billion price tag for strengthening Ukraine’s energy system resilience and supporting an EU-approved zero-carbon energy transition compared to the World Bank’s recovery estimate of just $10.4 billion, the two plans are not actually that far off in actuality when one considers the fact that the World Bank’s plan mainly considers efforts to repair and strengthen Ukraine’s energy system and does not include as many efforts to reach net-zero carbon emissions like the NRP does. As such, the NRP’s $14 billion for strengthening Ukraine’s integrated energy system resilience compares somewhat favorably with the World Bank’s total estimate of $10.4 billion for many of those same activities. 

That being said, as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has written, “‘green’ reconstruction should not be seen as a desirable but optional ‘extra’, but as an economic necessity for the future development of Ukraine,” As such, the NRP’s efforts to support a zero-carbon energy transition, while eye-wateringly expensive at $114 billion, will at least attempt to, “ensure the greater economic efficiency and competitiveness of Ukraine in the European and global markets,” hopefully improving Ukraine’s long-term economic prospects and enabling a more rapid recovery from the war’s deleterious effects. 

Other areas of basic agreement on reconstruction between the World Bank and Ukraine are on the need to repair and rebuild housing stocks, modernize water, heating and electricity delivery, and improve urban transport. Though the NRP lists all of these in National Program number 10, with a total price tag reaching $230 billion, the World Bank report does contain $69 billion for housing recovery, $5.4 billion for water resources and sanitation, $1.33 billion for the heating sector, $2.4 billion for the electricity sector, and $73.8 billion for repair of the transport sector. While that nearly $152 billion price tag is just 65% of the NRP’s total estimate, it does show that both groups are operating in the same reality, at the very least. 

In the long run, the key difference between the World Bank report and Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan is in the long-term outcome desired. While the NRP aims to create the conditions in Ukraine that would make it a more attractive partner to the EU, and a more credible candidate for EU accession, the World Bank report seems to aim more towards using existing international best practices to help Ukraine recover to a level similar to or just greater than where it was at before the war. 

Fundamentally, therefore, it is the NRP that more fully conforms to the guidelines of the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the German Marshall Fund of the United States, which argue that, “just like the Marshall Plan and the impetus it provided for regional integration (through the Organisation for European Economic Cooperation) were instrumental in building confidence in the future of post-WWII Europe, EU integration would send a vital signal about a long-term commitment to market-based democracy in Ukraine,” and that, “EU membership represents the final goal of Ukraine’s recovery and the linchpin of its future as a full democracy.”

Ultimately, therefore, Ukraine’s international partners should take in the best of both the NRP and the World Bank assessment in order to more fully address the needs of Ukrainians following the resolution of the war. What both sides do agree on is that reconstruction and recovery efforts must not wait until the cessation of hostilities, but instead must begin now if they are to have any hope of addressing the massive damage caused by the Russian aggression. Furthermore, the reconstruction plans must be comprehensive, locally-directed, and locally-owned, with robust oversight mechanisms in place to ensure that timelines are being kept, and funds are not wasted or siphoned off for personal use. 

In the end, the price tag for reconstruction is only likely to grow, especially as the war shows little sign of coming to a resolution anytime soon. Whether or not the international community is able to make use of sanctioned or seized Russian assets—a somewhat legally dubious proposition that does have potential—the total price tag for the international community will still likely be very high. Therefore, what will be important are the establishment of Reconstruction Coordinators, who will be able to provide, “a single interlocutor for Ukrainian authorities, to devise strategy, to develop institutional arrangements for channeling reconstruction funds, to build an accountable and transparent decision-making and reporting framework, to coordinate across aid sources, and to provide real-time oversight,” of the reconstruction effort. 

With a vigorous oversight system in place and a coordination framework set upsvia between Ukraine’s international partners and the various multilateral institutions assisting in recovery, aid practitioners should be able to assess the damage to Ukraine’s variously-impacted sectors and, using Kyiv’s National Recovery Plan and the World Bank’s assessment, begin to address the damage caused by the Russian war.

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Think Horses, not Zebras: Organized Crime and the Roots of Insecurity and Instability in Mozambique

September 16, 2022

Back on August 16, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project’s (ACLED) Mozambique conflict observatory, Cabo Ligado (“connected cape”) issued their most recent summary of the violence that has taken place in the country since October of 2017. The weekly report noted that recent events had brought the total number of organized political violence events to 1,382 with the total number of fatalities from organized political violence reaching a disheartening 4,188. Furthermore, the total number of reported fatalities from organized violence directly targeting civilians has reached 1,818, with attacks on civilians and their property reported recently in Muidumbe district. 

Cabo Delgado Total Number of Organized Political Violence Events and Number of Fatalities/Source: https://acleddata.com/acleddatanew/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Cabo-Ligado-PDF-Weekly-110.pdf
Cabo Delgado Total Number of Organized Political Violence Events and Number of Fatalities/Source: https://acleddata.com/acleddatanew/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Cabo-Ligado-PDF-Weekly-110.pdf
Organized Political Violence and Reported Fatalities in Cabo Delgado (1 Jan 2020 - 31 July 2022)/Source: https://acleddata.com/acleddatanew/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Cabo-Ligado-PDF-Monthly-July-22.pdf
Organized Political Violence and Reported Fatalities in Cabo Delgado (1 Jan 2020 – 31 July 2022)/Source: https://acleddata.com/acleddatanew/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Cabo-Ligado-PDF-Monthly-July-22.pdf

In response, Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi, in an August 8 address to the National Youth Conference, stated that the armed violence in Cabo Delgado province is tantamount, “to a new form of colonialism,” arguing that extremist groups in the area, “manipulate the conscience of young people, with the aim of plundering the existing resources in the territory and perpetuating the suffering and poverty of Mozambicans.” Relatedly, on August 17, the Southern Africa Development Community renewed the deployment of the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) for twelve more months, in an attempt to continue to contain the violence. 

However, while the militarized response to the insurgency and unrest in Cabo Delgado province has managed to tamp down on the violence and improve the overall security conditions in the region, issues still remain. For instance, there still exists the problem that, despite SAMIM forces driving away, degrading, and demoralizing the insurgents from Cabo Delgado—as the United States Institute of Peace’s (USIP) Andrew Cheatham, Amanda Long, and Thomas P. Sheehy recently put it—local civilians still do not trust the local government and police forces, with one Mozambican civil society representative telling USIP in June that the government, “only care[s] about protecting the interests of big companies.” 

AU African Standby Force Scenarios/Source: https://www.peaceau.org/uploads/01-asf-in-hands-guidelines.pdf#page=7
AU African Standby Force Scenarios/Source: https://www.peaceau.org/uploads/01-asf-in-hands-guidelines.pdf#page=7

Despite the relative success of the multinational intervention’s troop presence—which includes more than 3,000 troops from the Southern African Development Community’s Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia as well as Rwanda—and the recent downgrading of the Mission from “An African Union Policy Guideline on the Role of the African Standby Force in Humanitarian Action and Natural Disaster Support” Scenario Six (AU interventions in grave circumstances such as genocide) to Scenario Five (AU Peace Support Operations for Complex Multidimensional Operations), stabilization operations are just the first step required to address the needs of the citizens of northern Mozambique. If Maputo—as well as its international partners—wish to address the more than one million internally displaced persons in the country as well as the similar number of Mozambicans facing severe hunger, the government will not only need to show a commitment to address the tricky security situation on the ground, but it must also show that it is willing and able to address the root causes of the ongoing humanitarian crisis. However, when figuring out the exact causes of the violent extremism plaguing the country, one must be careful to not to overcomplicate the analysis to too great a degree. While some say that “a complex mix of history, ethnicity, and religion, and the war has been fuelled by poverty, growing inequality, and the ‘resource curse’,” as was argued in August of 2021 by the London School of Economics’ Dr. Joseph Hanlon, others see differing explanations. 

Mozambique's provinces with Cabo Delgado in the north-east/Source: https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-51.pdf#page=3
Mozambique’s provinces with Cabo Delgado in the north-east/Source: https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-51.pdf#page=3

In looking at the roots of the crisis, one recent attempt to explain the drivers of the insurgency in northern Mozambique is an August 2022 report from Martin Ewi, Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Willem Els, Richard Chelin, Yussuf Adam and Elisa Samuel Boerekamp of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), “Violent extremism in Mozambique: Drivers and links to transnational organised crime,” which argues that the usual suspects of, “historic disenfranchisement, poverty, marginalisation, endemic corruption and political exclusion,” are not enough to explain the exact roots of the conflict in Cabo Delgado, and that it instead, the legacy of the country’s independence and civil wars, “left behind a war industry that has nourished terrorism and other forms of violence.” 

Roots of the Insurgency

Map of Organized Political Violence in Cabo Delgado (2017-2020)/Source: https://icg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/303-mozambique-cabo-delgado%20%281%29.pdf#page=50
Map of Organized Political Violence in Cabo Delgado (2017-2020)/Source: https://icg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/303-mozambique-cabo-delgado%20%281%29.pdf#page=50

For the ISS authors, the recurrent political conflict between the ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) and the opposition Mozambican National Resistance Movement (RENAMO) has created a vulnerable society where political grievances often explode into violence. Furthermore, as the London School of Economics’ Joseph Hanlon has pointed out in a May 23 article for BBC News, while, “both the U.S. and [Islamic State] want this to be seen not as a local civil war, but as a clash between two global powers,” there is the fact that, “most Mozambican researchers say local issues remain dominant.” As such, the ISS report authors argue that the insurgency is not just another stage for the international clash between the West and the international jihadist movement but instead came about just as, “Mozambique was beginning to entrench democracy, but also when the disparity between the rich and the poor was becoming a serious concern.” 

Furthermore, as Hanlon notes in his August 2021 piece, “Ignoring the Roots of Mozambique’s War in a Push for Military Victory,” the conflict is not only a, “new civil war” but it is, “taking place in the same areas where the 1964-1974 independence war began,” with striking similarities between the resource- and wealth distribution-related conflict of the 1960s and 1970s and the violence taking place today. For Hanlon, the issues preceding the independence war were that, “colonial authorities were seen to be taking the wealth of the area and leaving nothing behind,” whereas, “FRELIMO is now the government, and people along the coast see themselves as marginalised by a FRELIMO elite,” especially as, “the post-2000 resource boom, driven by rubies, graphite and natural gas lead to increased poverty and sharply increased inequality.” Whereas In the 1960s, it was Portuguese oligarchs siphoning off the people’s wealth, today, it can be argued that the FRELIMO government has seen its own elites enrich themselves at the expense of the average northern Mozambican. 

Short-term growth impact of giant oil and gas discoveries in countries with weak institutions/Source: https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/2022-01/PP_26-21_Ouassif-Seleman.pdf#page=10
Short-term growth impact of giant oil and gas discoveries in countries with weak institutions/Source: https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/2022-01/PP_26-21_Ouassif-Seleman.pdf#page=10

As Penn State University’s Dennis Jett argues in a March 2020 piece for Foreign Policy, the FRELIMO government has been corrupt, and, since 1975 has, “succeeded in abusing their power because of the lack of the countervailing forces such as an independent legislature and judiciary, a free press, and a strong civil society sector.” Furthermore, Jett argues, “these rulers have been aided by the complicity of some countries, energy companies such as ExxonMobil, and aid organizations such as the U.N. Development Program and the Millennium Challenge Corporation, and the indifference of others.”

However, the government’s inattention towards its citizens has not been equal, with a distinct geographic element at play between northern and southern Mozambique that renders the conflict all the more complicated. Specifically, as was noted in a June 2021 report from the International Crisis Group, senior FRELIMO officials have acknowledged that following the independence war, the FRELIMO government, “ paid a lot of attention to the development of the regions of the south and the central part of the country where the war with Renamo took place, but in so doing we also have to take the blame for having neglected Cabo Delgado.” 

Because of that inattention, Cabo Delgado has remained one of Mozambique’s poorest regions, even before the outbreak of the 2017 insurgency, with, “high levels of poverty and [an] absence of services,” as well as widespread illiteracy. As a result, locals in Cabo Delgado list poverty and lack of education as some of the main causes underlying the formation of jihadist group Ahlu-Sunnah wal Jama’ah (ASWJ)—also known locally as al-Shabaab, ISIS-Mozambique, or Mashabab—and locals exhibit a, “strong evidence of resentment against elites who are believed to be benefitting from the province’s resources, while the rest of the people of Cabo Delgado languish in poverty and without basic services.”

Similarly, a large number of Cabo Delgado residents see the unequal distribution of natural resources, and their resultant revenue streams, as the root cause of the conflict, with 139 of the 309 respondents interviewed by ISS rating the 2010 discovery of natural gas in the Rovuma Basin off the northern coast of Mozambique as the root of the conflict, followed by, “illicit arms flows (42), economic marginalisation (21), middle class/elite greed (17) and poor management of natural resources (15).” 

Specifically, the early 2000s discovery of rubies and gold in Cabo Delgado—which has seen the province become one of the world’s most productive sources for gem-quality rubies—led to thousands beginning to work a large deposit near the city of Montepuez, most without proper permits, with the Maputo government deciding in 2009 that unlicensed mining would be tolerated. This permissive attitude led to the influx of tens of thousands of artisanal miners to the area, though the main concessions are administered by Gemfields—the world’s leading supplier of rare colored gemstones—and its seventy-five percent owned subsidiary Montepuez Ruby Mining (MRM), which has relied on the regionally controlled Protection Police and Maputo’s Rapid Intervention Force (FIR) to protect its concessions from encroachment by such artisanal miners. 

Furthermore, the main ruby mine was originally controlled by FRELIMO-linked oligarch Raimundo Pachinuapa, who allegedly, “used his position to seize the land where the mine is located, drove out thousands of people and entrusted Gemfields with 75% of the company on the condition that he did nothing and kept 25% of the money raised,” according to a 2021 interview with the LSE’s Joseph Hanlon. Furthermore, the director of Gemfields in Mozambique is the son of former Mozambican President Samora Machel, Samora Machel Jr., raising a number of corruption-related questions. 

Even more concerningly, the Protection Police and Maputo’s Rapid Intervention Force have been accused of human rights abuses against locals and artisanal miners, with Mozambican investigative journalist Estacio Valoi writing for Foreign Policy in 2016 that, “the violence in Montepuez is intertwined with the government’s expansion of industrial areas that has seen locals forcibly removed from their homes,” noting that, in September 2014, FIR operatives, “burned down some 300 houses in the market villages of Namucho and Ntoro, in the Namanhumbir region of Montepuez, and beat residents, according to interviews with the village chief, local residents, and artisanal miners,” with a similar incident occurring in September 2012 as well. This violence towards civilians can only lead to further resentment between the locals and Maputo. As was said by one local villager, “they took our lands and burned our houses…Now they even want us out of our villages, to abandon our traditions and go to places where there is no water and the land is not good for agriculture. We will not leave, even if they kill us here.”

Moreover, the discovery of natural gas in 2010 led the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ Anne Frühauf to note in 2014 that, “the resource boom is drastically raising public expectations,” and that, “dashed expectations could fuel worse social tensions in future years, unless [former Mozambican President] Guebuza and his successor get serious about  putting in place comprehensive policy responses – in terms of monetary, macroeconomic, and broader structural policy reforms that cater to the inclusive growth agenda.” 

However, such reforms never took place, and, as João Feijó, a researcher at the Rural Environment Observatory (OMR) in Mozambique told the Telegraph in July of 2021, as a result, “local youth felt unprotected by the government because there were thousands of…Mozambicans from the south and foreigners that were arriving and getting the best jobs,” and that locals felt that, “they didn’t have the opportunities for education so they could not compete.” As was remarked on in the ISS report, while, “assurances were made that local inhabitants would benefit first from LNG projects and that those displaced would be compensated…perceptions have been of the contrary and many see natural gas and its promises of prosperity as aggravating inequality and resentment against those in government who would benefit from the projects.” 

Political Strife and Corruption

Further complicating the situation in Cabo Delgado is Mozambique’s ongoing political strife, which has existed in some form since just after independence. As the ISS report asserts, violence and boycotts characterized the country’s post-civil war elections in 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019; and though a demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration (DDR) process has been agreed on between the government and RENAMO, the FRELIMO governments fear of the former rebels has caused Maputo to be reluctant to use the military as a first responder to the situation in Cabo Delgado, possibly missing out on the best chance to end the insurgency in its infancy. 

Furthermore, despite RENAMO’s participation in the DDR process, the FRELIMO government has yet to live up to its commitments towards decentralization. Furthermore, as has been observed by the Chr. Michelsen Institute’s (CHI) U4 Anti-Corruption Center (U4), President Nyusi’s FRELIMO party has been accused of engaging in electoral fraud, with, “the general election of October 2019…marred by serious irregularities,” which saw, “President Nyusi re-elected with 73% of the vote and Frelimo winning in all provinces, allowing them to appoint all provincial governors,” despite EU Election Observation Reports and international NGO Freedom House detailing various accounts of ballot-box stuffing and other forms of fraud.

Taken together, the ISS authors argue, the political context in Mozambique is one that shows the conditions conducive to the spread of terrorism, as corruption and the avarice of state actors are some of the key factors that allow for violent extremist organizations to emerge and thrive. As a result, the majority (54.03%) of those interviewed by the Institute for Security Studies authors described the situation in Cabo Delgado as terrorism, with another 20% referring to it as an insurgency. Furthermore, a majority of respondents named ASWJ or Al-Shabaab as the main party responsible for attacks on locals, with the formation of the group attributed to various factors including greed, poor governance, and other grievances. 

ASWJ’s Modus Operandi, Ideology, and Recruitment

As was pointed out in the ISS report, “the approach by ASWJ in Mozambique resembles that of other terrorist groups, such as Boko Haram’s beheading of captured religious leaders and soldiers,” with group members initially targeting police, soldiers, and local councilors, but eventually becoming more indiscriminate in their attacks. Furthermore, while the group does not possess a signature attack style, the group is, “known to [use] ISIS methods such as beheading, torture tactics, kidnapping and melestyle attacks.”

The group, as has been noted by Queen’s University’s Eric Morier-Genoud, “is old, and started in 2007 as an Islamist sect that wanted to have a Muslim government.” When that did not work out, and fueled by a combination of the social and economic grievances listed above, the group, “they switched to an armed ‘jihad’ movement,” in 2015, two years before launching its first attack on Mocimboa da Praia in October 2017, and four years before pledging the group’s allegiance to the Islamic State. 

In terms of the group’s overall ideology, while Amal El Ouassif and Seleman Yusuph Kitenge of the Policy Center for the New South feel that, “the origins and ideological underpinnings of the movement called Al Shabaab or Ahl Al Sunna Wa-Al Jamâa are unclear,” the ISS authors argue that local Cabo Delgado residents stated that they believed that the group’s ideology was rooted in exploiting the natural resources of the province, failure of governance in the region, and facilitating the rise of illicit trade and organized crime. 

When it comes to Mozambican’s religious beliefs and ethnicity, both the ISS’ and the Policy Center for the New South’s authors agree that, “religion plays a central role in the region,” with the Christian, FRELIMO-linked, Makondé wearing rosaries around their necks, while the mainly-Muslim Mwani men go out publicly with prayer hats and women wearing hijabs. However, Ouassif and Kitenge are careful to note that linking the insurgency, “solely to religious radicalism would be very simplistic.” That being said, over 60% of those interviewed by the ISS authors cited religion as playing a role in ASWJ’s ideology, indicating that the group not only is—but is viewed as being—composed of religious extremists. Indeed, anthropologist Carmeliza Rosário, working on a research project for Chr. Michelsen Institute points out that, “the insurgents are not targeting Christians more than Muslims, but rather the opposite, attacking those who do not practise their version of Islam.” 

As Eric Morier-Genoud writes in a July 2020 paper for the Journal of Eastern African Studies, “The jihadi insurgency in Mozambique: origins, nature and beginning,” the insurgency likely began life in the district of Balama in 2007 when a Makura man named Sualehe Rafayel returned to his village after several years in Tanzania and joined a local Wahhabi mosque built by the Kuwait-linked Africa Muslim Agency. When Rafayel tried to convert members of the mosque to the more strict version of the Islamic faith that he now followed, tensions rose between himself and other local Muslims, causing Sualehe to withdraw from the mosque to his own religious building in his personal compound. Ultimately, Sheikh Sualehe and the local community continued to clash over his opposition to formal education, praying in the mosque wearing shoes, and praying just three times per day. Over time, the group—whether it was called Al-Shabaab, Al-Sunnah Wal-Jamaa, or Swahili Sunnah—began constructing its own mosques and distanced itself from both state institutions and the wider Islamic society. However, it also began engaging in proselytizing as well as offering financial loans to micro-entrepreneurs and educational opportunities to the local populace, a popular move that built up the group’s opinion with the youth in the area. 

It took a period of ten years for the group to eventually turn violent, with Morier-Genoud arguing that the shift likely occurred, “as a consequence of the repression it experienced from the mainstream Muslim organizations, and, later on, the state – the latter’s involvement possibly tipping the sect into abandoning its approach of withdrawing from society.” Indeed, in early October 2017, community leaders in Mocimboa da Praia issued a complaint to the local authorities—about the group conducting mobilization activities and spreading propaganda on the mandatory use of the burqa by all Muslim women—which proceeded to arrest nearly thirty members of the group. On October 5, the remaining members of the Al-Shabaab raided the prison and three Mocimboa police stations, kicking off a cycle of violence that would continue until today. 

As the ISS authors write, however, while those Mozambicans interviewed did note that ASWJ declared in the beginning that its motives were religious, the group has changed their desires to reflect a goal of overthrowing the government. Moreover, while 81.2% of respondents believed that mosques and Islamic centers were the primary vehicles for radicalization, the youth that are selected for recruitment are not targeted through an appeal to religious motivations, but rather to their pecuniary interests. Specifically, the ISS report notes that respondents pointed to ASWJ leaders offering young people, “ big sums of money ranging from MT100,000 (US$1,500) to MT500,000 (US$7,700),” and that, faced with few other chances for a livelihood, the youth often accept. However, the ISS authors also allow that, often, “ASWJ recruitment strategies are perceived to be situation/context dependent as ‘some are taken forcibly, while others are enticed and funded…” though now the group is less likely to make use of monetary and employment promises, instead proceeding to burn houses and take the people and things that it desires. 

ASWJ, Terrorism, and Organized Crime

Where the ISS authors depart from other analyses of the situation—and what they somewhat fail to convincingly argue—is that, in Cabo Delgado, there exists a nexus between the insurgency and organized crime linking the ongoing violence with the smuggling and trafficking of various illicit commodities. The ISS authors point to a 2018 article by Hanlon which argues that after the 2012 killing of Al-Shabaab-linked cleric Aboud Rogo Mohammed in Kenya, his followers came under pressure by security forces there and moved south into Cabo Delgado. Once there, the group became involved with local smuggling barons and used, “incomes made from smuggling, religious networks, and people-traffickers,” to pay to send young men to Kenya, Somalia, and Tanzania for military and Islamic training. Furthermore, while a Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime study found no evidence that ASWJ controls the illicit economy, its members may be involved in some illegal schemes. 

However, the ISS report does acknowledge that, “the available open source evidence supporting claims that the insurgents are being financed by drug trafficking, fauna crimes, illegal artisanal mining and other organised crime acts, is weak,” though they argue that it may be a question of missing evidence, as they find it hard to believe that a criminal group can set itself up in the heart of a major organized crime environment, but not be a part of that system. Furthermore, the ISS report points to the responses from interviewees, 51% of whom perceived the insurgents as having a direct involvement in organized crime. 

A major part of this organized crime nexus is the heroin trade, which, as Hanlon writes in a July 2018 paper, “The Uberization of Mozambique’s heroin trade,” has seen Mozambique become a “significant heroin transit centre” where the trade, “has increased to 40 tonnes or more per year, making it a major export which contributes up to $100 mn per year to the local economy,” and, “has been controlled by a few local trading families and tightly regulated by senior officials of Frelimo, the ruling party, and has been largely ignored by the international community which wanted to see Mozambique as a model pupil.” 

Illicit Flows Through Northern Mozambique/Source: https://riskbulletins.globalinitiative.net/esa-obs-023/01-investigating-potential-sources-of-arms-flows.html
Illicit Flows Through Northern Mozambique/Source: https://riskbulletins.globalinitiative.net/esa-obs-023/01-investigating-potential-sources-of-arms-flows.html

Another criminal racket that ASWJ has been linked to is kidnapping for ransom, with Human Rights Watch stating that the group has, since 2018, kidnapped more than 600 women and girls, forcing, “younger, healthy-looking, and lighter-skinned women and girls in their custody to “marry” their fighters, who enslave and sexually abuse them,” while, “others have been sold to foreign fighters for between 40,000 and 120,000 Meticais (US$600 to US$1,800).” Furthermore, the group also, “abducted foreign women and girls, in particular, [who] have been released after their families paid ransom.” Moreover, the group has also engaged in arms trafficking, not only seizing weapons in raids on Mozambican security forces, but bringing in weapons from Tanzania, the DRC, Kenya, and Somalia as well. 

Finally, there are ASWJ’s links to illegal mining, as pointed out by Saide Habibe, Salvador Forquilha and João Pereira of the Institute for Social and Economic Studies (IESE) in Mozambique, who argued in a 2019 report that, “as in other countries facing violent extremism, funding for the Al-Shabaab group in Mocímboa da Praia and the surrounding districts (at least in the early stages) came from an illicit local economy with links to clandestine networks trafficking in timber, charcoal, rubies and ivory, among other products.” Habibe, Forquilha, and Pereira state that Al-Shabaab was linked to the mining and sale of rubies, as, “groups of illegal prospectors from Somalia, Ethiopia, Tanzania and the Great Lakes region have settled in the Montepuez region and established alliances with local religious leaders via marriage ties.” 

For the ISS authors, “the nexus with illegal mining is, therefore, by appropriation as the group has appropriated what is largely an organised crime strategy,” though they acknowledge that, “more research is needed to determine the full scale of ASWJ’s sources of funding.” However, the authors do point to the fact that some reports have emerged about South Africans financing terrorist groups in Mozambique, with the U.S. Treasury Department in March 2022 blacklisting Farhad Hoomer and Sirraj Miller of South Africa for being, “‘South Africa-based ISIS organizers and financial facilitators,” of ISIS-Mozambique/ASWJ, with the Treasury press release stating that, “ISIS branches in Africa rely on local fundraising schemes such as theft, extortion of local populations, and kidnapping for ransom, as well as financial support from the ISIS hierarchy,” which would seem to indicate some links between organized crime and the insurgents. 

However, the ISS report does note that the, “reported increase in the volume of trafficking and smuggling in Cabo Delgado and adjoining regions since the conflict began suggests that the traffickers and smugglers are benefitting from the insurgency,” which denotes a more symbiotic nexus between the two groups rather than organized crime being the proximate cause of the insurgency. 

Maputo’s Response 

The ISS report notes that the response from the state has been mainly securitized, with the government initially labeling the insurgents as “malfaitores”, criminals or evildoers who needed to be handled by the police. However, following the October 5, 2017 attacks on Mocimboa da Praia, the government took a more militaristic turn, first bringing in the Russian private military company Wagner Group and then later replacing them with South African Dyck Advisory Group when Wagner failed to overcome their own poor understanding of the operating environment. However, Dyck Advisory Group also failed to achieve success against the insurgency, despite having carried out indiscriminate attacks on civilians, as well as extrajudicial killings, as has been alleged by Amnesty International. 

Ultimately, the mercenaries were replaced by the Mozambican military, along with a deployment of Rwandan and SAMIM forces in 2021. The ISS authors note that despite the abuses of the mercenaries, and the unpopularity of military interventions against Boko Haram in Nigeria and al-Shabaab in Somalia, nearly ⅔ of Mozambican respondents believed that the militaries had been effective in curtailing insurgent attacks, with the SAMIM forces gains including, “retaking control of all formerly terrorist-controlled towns, including Mocimboa da Praia, Quissanga, Macomia and Nangade, the neutralisation of several key terrorist commanders, and the dismantling and destruction of their bases,” rendering ASWJ significantly smaller and weaker, though still deadly. 

ISS Recommendations

The ISS report closes with a number of recommendations for the government of Mozambique, its neighbors, the SADC, the AU, and Mozambique’s international partners. For Maputo, the ISS authors propose that it enact measures to empower communities to take ownership of their own security and become partners of the state for intelligence and early warning against jihadist attacks. They argue that the government needs to not only listen to the grievances that people have regarding unemployment and ethnic discrimination, but it must do so while identifying particular roles for the youth, women, private sector, academia, and civil society in making decisions for their communities. 

Root causes of violent extremism in Cabo Delgado/Source: https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-51.pdf#page=19
Root causes of violent extremism in Cabo Delgado/Source: https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-51.pdf#page=19

Ultimately, the authors contend that the state needs a comprehensive national strategy that addresses the political, humanitarian, socio-economic, and security aspects of the insurgency’s origins, as well as plans to address the perennial lack of livelihoods in Cabo Delgado. Furthermore, they state that the government needs to: set up pro-poor and pro-youth development projects that address regional inequalities; equip the criminal justice system to bring to justice all those suspected of participating in the violence; set up a national commission to investigate the root causes of extremism in Cabo Delgado; strengthen cooperation with neighbors on intelligence sharing regarding the movement and activities of both extremists and organize crime groups; and institute a zero-tolerance policy for corruption, enhancing the country’s intelligence services to detect the sources, routes, and enablers of organized crime in Cabo Delgado. 

For Tanzania and Mozambique’s other neighbors, such as Uganda, the authors argue that those states should help Mozambique tighten security at its borders, regularly share intelligence, and urge border communities to not host any person suspected of terrorism. 

With regard to the Southern African Development Community, the authors state that the organization must strengthen coordination among troop contributing nations to combat the insurgency, inviting Rwanda and Uganda to any SADC meetings that discuss the situation in Cabo Delgado. Furthermore, the authors encourage the SADC to create a taskforce to study the origins and motivations of the insurgency, drawing lessons for how to prevent the emergence of such groups in neighboring countries. In addition, they propose that the SADC do more to enforce its existing instruments, including the SADC Counter-Terrorism Strategy and the SADC Transnational Organized Crime Strategy and Implementation Action Plan; mobilize its neighbors to strengthen cooperation on border security; and appeal to the international community for more funds to fight terrorism in Mozambique. 

For the African Union, the authors propose supporting the SADC by considering implementing AU Scenario Six on the use of the African Standby Force if the SADC requests the AU take over the situation in Cabo Delgado. In addition, they: encourage the AU’s Peace and Security Council to regularly review the situation and adopt a decision on Cabo Delgado; encourage greater collaboration between SAMIM, Rwandan, and Mozambican forces; and advocate for the AU Commission to support and assist the SADC in sourcing funds for SAMIM forces, providing them with the capabilities to conduct air combat and night missions. 

Finally, for the EU, UN, and the rest of the international community, the authors propose that they do more to strengthen Mozambique’s ability to investigate and prosecute terrorist acts. They also argue that UN aid agencies should increase the supply of food and other aid to IDPs in Cabo Delgado; and that Mozambique’s international development partners support a military presence in Mozambique. In addition, they propose that, similar to the successful amnesty program for Niger Delta militants, Mozambique’s European partners should, “offer an option for militants who are ready to lay down their arms to undergo their DDR programme in European countries and their final reintegration in Mozambique.”

Better Explanations for the Insurgency

However, despite the ISS reports title, the authors do not make a completely convincing case for ASWJ’s creation being caused by the presence of organized crime in northern Mozambique. While the authors do clearly show the presence of an extended network of criminal activity in the area, the report does not do enough to link those networks with the beginnings of the insurgency. Furthermore, the report’s conclusion regarding organized crime seemingly ignores some better explanations that are offered already in the analysis.

For instance, as the ISS authors note, the first iteration of a radical Islamist sect in Negande with a doctrine and dress code similar to modern day Mozambique’s Al-Shabaab/ASWJ existed back in 1989, before the influx of artisanal gold miners to Cabo Delgado in the early 2000s. Moreover, Liazzat Bonate of the Chr. Michelsen Institute argues that Salafi-Wahhabis ideologies have a long history in Mozambique, dating back at least to the 1950s and 1960s, though their presence had not led to an insurgency. 

Bonate argues that it was not until the late 1990s, when Mozambican Muslims—returning from scholarships at known centers for Wahhabism and Salafism such as the Universities of Medina in Saudi Arabia and Al-Merkaz Al-Islami in Sudan—founded a movement called Ahl al-Sunna or Ansar al-Sunna, building mosques and madrassas, and providing locals with an Islamist ideology and a sense of dissatisfaction with the socio-political context of northern Mozambique. 

As Bonate asks, as Mozambicans did not manifest jihadism before 2017, the question is, “why in 2017 and why in Cabo Delgado?” For Bonate, it is the, “existence of a favorable and fertile environment for jihadism to penetrate and expand,” as, “the exclusionary practices of political and economic governance of local or central institutions of the State, ethnic tensions, marginalization, bad administration, corruption, police violence, tensions between center and periphery etc. fertilize the soil for jihadism to flourish.” 

Therefore, instead of focusing on the links the insurgency has to transnational and organized crime, one would do better to focus on the other issues that create a welcoming environment for violent extremism to take root. As Emilia Coloumbo, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) Africa Program wrote recently in a piece for the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Mozambique has a number of sources of instability that create fertile ground for extremists to operate. These include a limited political space for countervailing forces due to the dominance of FRELIMO since independence in 1975; stalled implementation of 2018’s constitutional reforms that were intended to create space for opposition parties; endemic corruption; a hidden debt scandal which may have cost Mozambique at least $11 billion and pushed nearly two million people into poverty; economic inequality exacerbated by FRELIMO’s political dominance; and an overall tense relationship between the state and its citizens due to this limited political space, corruption, a lack of electoral integrity, and the resultant economic pressures on ordinary Mozambicans. 

As ASWJ likely began its recruitment efforts by originally offering poor and unemployed youth loans that they could invest in order to help them build wealth, it is difficult to argue that the underlying socio-economic conditions in northern Mozambique created a fertile ground for the insurgency and its subsequent criminal activities, rather than the criminal activities leading the group into jihadism. Furthermore, as Columbo notes in her piece for the CFR, ASWJ’s “limited public statements have focused on criticizing the government for corruption and using the hard work of the Muslim poor for self-enrichment.” 

Furthermore, one simply has to look at how Cabo Delgado has fared socio-economically to see how the local youth might be easy prey for extremist groups. As was pointed out in a 2020 report by Dorina A. Bekoe, Stephanie M. Burchard, and Sarah A. Daly for the Institute for Defense Analyses, “Cabo Delgado is certainly poor. It is the lowest ranked Mozambican province in terms of income, human development, and education,” despite its relative wealth of natural resources. 

In the end, one simply cannot ignore the fact that not only has Cabo Delgado been largely ignored by Maputo and the FRELIMO government since independence, but since the discovery of rubies in the early parts of the 2000s, not only have locals not seen a tremendous benefit but, “Mozambicans living in the area of the mines have been relocated, sometimes forcibly and extrajudicially.” Furthermore, despite Gemfields’ protestations otherwise, “local miners reported being harassed, beaten, and shot by gangs affiliated with the security forces assigned to protect the [ruby mining] concessions.”

A better explanation for the explosion of violence in Cabo Delgado in 2017 would likely be the discovery of oil and natural gas off of the coast in 2011, which, combined with the abuse towards artisanal miners beginning in 2012, may have been the final slight that ASWJ needed to tip it over into a full-scale insurgency; especially as the group felt that the Maputo government would, once again, be taking the lion’s share of the wealth, leaving little for northern Mozambicans. 

What role does organized crime play in the insurgency?/Source: https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-51.pdf#page=33
What role does organized crime play in the insurgency?/Source: https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar-51.pdf#page=33

While organized crime likely plays a role in providing the insurgents with the money and arms that they need to carry out their attacks, it is not likely that the simple presence or even prevalence of organized transnational crime would have been the proximate cause of ASWJ’s shift from advocating for a Muslim government to full-scale assaults on the local populace. Unfortunately, in Mozambique—with its history of elite patronage, favoritism towards Christian Makondés, and rampant corruption—the traditional seeds for an insurgency were already present, with the government having failed for over forty years, from independence to the beginning of the attacks, to address the underlying grievances of those living in northern Mozambique. 

Attempting to Bring an End to the Conflict

Unfortunately, the militarized response to the insurgency has not achieved all of the results that its implementers may have desired. For instance, Cabo Ligado’s most recent monthly update for July 2022 notes that, despite some successes from some SAMIM special forces units and the establishment of a major SAMIM base north of Macomia, “SAMIM’s capacity for offensive patrols in the dense forests of Cabo Delgado remains limited.” Furthermore, the same report argues that, “notwithstanding positive developments in some parts of the province, there are deep concerns the insurgency may spread further and that insurgents are training new recruits and may be developing new bases, and logistical and supply networks in neighboring provinces,” and that, “SAMIM is already overstretched and is ill-equipped to take on other areas.”

Ultimately, even Maputo realizes that a predominantly militarized response will not be enough to end the conflict, with Mozambican Minister of National Defense Cristóvão Artur Chume telling the International Crisis Group earlier this year that, “we need more than just weapons to end this conflict, something more than military operations.” Furthermore, as another government advisor told the Crisis Group, “…what the youth who are fighting really want is a sense of social justice and a permanent stake in the future of Cabo Delgado.” 

As such, any resolution to the conflict will have to begin with an acknowledgement from Maputo that FRELIMO government elites cannot continue business as usual if they wish to see peace in the country. Government authorities will not only have to engage in dialogue with the insurgents, but they will have to be ready to meet some of their demands for a more equitable allocation of the resource rents in the northern parts of the country.

However, where the Institute for Security Studies authors are correct is that the issue of organized crime will also have to be addressed if the insurgency is to be dismantled. While the role played by organized crime in the genesis of ASWJ is debatable, its role in the sustenance of the organization is undeniable, as drug, gem, and timber smuggling, as well as human trafficking, are a major source of ASWJ’s day-to-day funding. As part of that effort, Maputo will need to enlist aid not only from its neighbors, but the AU, UN, European Union, and the United States, as they aim to combat illicit trade and organized crime in the region. 

In the final analysis, any discussions of the role of religion, ethnicity, or organized crime in the insurgency must grapple with the key fact that, as the Chr. Michelsen Institute’s Carmeliza Rosário told the Nordic Africa Institute back in April, while religion and ethnicity partly explain the outbreak of conflict, those issues don’t take into account the fact that, “the state has for a long time been very repressive and violent towards its citizens – especially in Cabo Delgado and the other provinces in the north. Years of unfair treatment by government officials have made people view the state if not as an enemy, then at best as someone who doesn’t care about their wellbeing.” When coupled with the ongoing corruption in the country, including the hidden debt scandal and the removal of artisanal miners from sites now run by international gemstone mining giant Gemstones, Rosario states that, “all this combined creates frustration and desperation, and also a sense that the state is not helping me but working against me. Radicalised and violent young people are not uncommon in the world. But building a movement that actually threatens the state can only happen where the social contract is weak.” 

In the 1940s, an American medical researcher at the University of Maryland named Theodore E. Woodward was credited with coining a rather apt aphorism for the situation in Mozambique: “When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras.” While organized crime networks certainly exacerbate the problems caused by ethnic and religious conflict in the region, the best explanation for the insurgency plaguing northern Mozambique is actually the broken social contract between the Mozambican people and the FRELIMO government. 

Only efforts to repair that contract—whether through a more equitable allocation of resource rents to the northern parts of the country; communicating more and better with locals; a stronger commitment to fight corruption; efforts to bring local civil society and community leaders into district and provincial governance; attempts to professionalize the security services; and better efforts to return state services to Cabo Delgado and develop the region—will be able to begin to end the cycle of violence. However, Maputo will have to realize that with the trust between the government and the people of Cabo Delgado having been frayed so badly, it is the FRELIMO-led government that will have to first communicate a strong commitment to reversing four decades of neglect.

Unfortunately, all signs are that the FRELIMO-led government has not internalized the fact that the conflict is likely caused by local grievances, with the Mozambican Council of Ministers having earlier this year failed to approve the multilateral Northern Resilience and Integrated Development Strategy (ERDIN), which would budget $2.5 billion for three pillars, including: “Support for peace building, security and social cohesion”; “Reconstruction of the social contract between the state and the population”; and “Economic recovery and resilience.” 

As Joseph Hanlon wrote in his August 2022 Mozambique News Reports & Clippings, “the  [ERDIN] proposal put substantial emphasis on local grievances – poverty, inequality, marginalisation, and no gains from local resources – as one of the major roots of the current civil war,” however, “President Filipe Nyusi has always rejected this, and government refused to even submit the ERDIN to the Council of Ministers, leading to a stand-off,” whereafter the EU, African Development Bank, World Bank, and United Nations Development Programme backed down, with the Council of Ministers approving on June 21, “a new version of the document which dropped almost all references to poverty, inequality, and grievances.”

For Hanlon, the surrender from Maputo’s international partners is partly due to the fact that, “gas and minerals and the potential for huge contracts led the international community to throw their full backing behind Frelimo as people they could deal with.” Despite a 2019 EU election observation mission report claiming that Mozambique’s, “ elections commission did not follow the law, the voters register was inflated, ‘an unlevel playing field was evident throughout the campaign’ with violence and illegal limitations on the opposition, and a wide range of irregularities,” the head of the EU Electoral Mission, Nacho Sánchez Amor—despite telling the press that changes were “absolutely imperative” and that, “if there is the political will, it can be done”—merely conveyed to the Mozambican Foreign Minister that, “it would be nice” if some of the reforms suggested could be implemented. 

For Hanlon, as a result of Sánchez Amor’s statement, “the message was loud and clear: the EU will allow Frelimo to steal the next elections.” As such, it is highly unlikely that, absent external pressure, the Nyusi government will recognize the impact of local grievances on the conflict. Until it does so, the international community will have no real partner in Maputo, and the insurgency will continue to have no end in sight.

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A Good First Step, But More to Do: Evaluating DoD’s Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan

September 9, 2022

As was previously covered in these pages, back on January 27, 2022, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin issued a memorandum directing the Department of Defense (DoD) to develop a Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan (CHMR-AP) that would outline  the steps needed to improve how the Department reacts and responds to incidents of civilian harm. The finished document, released on August 25th, aims not only to address and reform how the Defense Department currently addresses civilian harm incidents, but it also creates an architecture which allows for future lessons learned to be incorporated into DoD training, exercises, and professional military education (PME). 

To more fully understand the ultimate value of the new DoD CHMR-AP and evaluate the Department’s commitment to protect civilians in its own—or partnered—operations, it is best to examine the new Action Plan through the lens of the Center for Civilians in Conflict’s (CIVIC), “Protecting Together: Preventing, Mitigating, and Addressing Civilian Harm – A Framework for Evaluating Policy and Practice,” which provides a way of evaluating state commitment to the protection of civilians in armed conflict (PoC) through four main categories: a national commitment to protect civilians and a policy environment which enables it; measures taken to prevent and mitigate harm; systems and procedures to detect, investigate, and track civilian harm; and means for the state to make amends and provide reparations to civilians harmed as a result of U.S. or partnered military operations. 

By evaluating the new CHMR-AP through the lens of the CIVIC framework, and assigning a 1-10 point score to how well the new DoD Action Plan meets the requirements of the CIVIC framework, one can more clearly see in what areas the new civilian protection action plan needs work and where it lives up to its promise. 

Category 1 – National Commitment and Enabling Structures = 89/150 Points = 59.33% = Emerging Leader

National Policy Framework = 47/50 points

As noted in the CIVIC evaluation framework, “the success of efforts to prevent, mitigate, and address civilian harm often depends on a range of legal, political, and structural factors that enable efforts in other categories to succeed.” As such, one needs to evaluate the Defense Department civilian harm mitigation plan first in terms of whether there exists a national policy framework guiding the overall U.S. commitment to protecting civilians. As with the majority of the rest of the CIVIC evaluation framework, this subcategory consists of five separate evaluation criteria, which drills down into how effective the overall national policy framework can be. 

Here the Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan is in really excellent shape, as the overall policy guides the creation of a civilian harm mitigation and response (CHMR) Steering Committee to provide executive-level guidance and oversight; the creation of a civilian protection Center of Excellence (CoE); incorporates guidance for addressing civilian harm into strategy, doctrine, training, exercises and PME; establishes DoD-wide procedures for reporting, tracking, investigating, and responding to incidents of civilian harm resulting from operations; and applies that guidance to both U.S.-partnered operations and security cooperation activities. 10/10 points

The document also contains clear language that demonstrates a Department-wide commitment to protecting civilians, which can be seen through the DoD’s renewed commitment to defining the “civilian environment” in order to improve commander’s ability to understand how the protection of the civilian environment is vital to the achievement of overall mission objectives. Moreover, the action plan’s vow to institute “tailored conditionality” to promote ally and partner civilian protection efforts demonstrates a willingness not only to improve the efforts to protect civilians in U.S.-conducted operations, but in operations with allies and during security cooperation programs with partner countries. Overall, the action plan makes clear the Defense Department’s overall commitment to protecting civilians moving forward. 10/10 points

The action plan also outlines clear roles and responsibilities for implementing the new Defense Department PoC guidance, with each objective not only outlining the specific actions needed to be taken by high-ranking DoD personnel, but also providing an estimate of how many full time equivalent positions will need to be created at the offices of each implementing official. For example, CHRM-AP Objective 7—which established DoD-wide procedures for assessing and investigating cases of civilian harm resulting from U.S. operations—directs the eleven individual U.S. combatant commands to designate a senior official to serve as the Civilian Harm Assessment and Investigation Coordinator and outlines their main responsibilities; orders the combatant commands to provide guidance for commanders and their staffs addressing the range of accountability measures that can be taken to address civilian harm incidents; and orders the individual combatant commands to create Civilian Harm Assessment Cells (CHAC) to compile information related to incidents of civilian harm and both support the command in taking actions in response ranging from acknowledgement of harm and condolence payments as well as aid the commander in understanding how the incident happened in the first place. 

Interestingly, the reason for the inclusion of these CHACs is likely rooted in the success achieved by Civilian Casualty Tracking Cells instituted in Afghanistan as part of International Security Force – Afghanistan in 2008. 10/10 points

In addition, the action plan contains mostly clear implementation guidance, with each civilian harm mitigation and response objective carrying with it a number of actions that must be taken each year following the approval of the CHMR-AP. For example, in meeting the requirements of CHMR-AP Objective 4—which directs DoD to improve its knowledge of the civilian environment and civilian harm mitigation processes throughout the joint targeting processes so that the Department is better prepared to mitigate and respond to future incidences of civilian harm—the action plan directs the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security (USD(I&S)) to conduct a review of existing capabilities and processes across the Defense Intelligence Enterprise that contribute to collecting and archiving information about the civilian environment. In addition, the action plan directs the USD(I&S), in coordination with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to designate a responsible producer for civilian environmental analysis, which characterizes the civilian population as well as the infrastructure, essential services, systems, and organizations on which that population depends, all in order to better update DoD’s targeting processes and to help avoid future harm coming to civilians from U.S.-led military operations. 10/10 points

That being said, the new national policy framework for PoC, while providing some budgeting and resourcing information—including the estimation of how many full-time equivalent positions will need to be created at each Undersecretary, combatant command, joint staff, and service headquarters—lacks even estimated dollar figures for what the creation of new data management systems systems may take. For example, as listed above, while the action plan directs the USD(I&S) to designate a responsible producer for a civilian environmental analysis, it does not outline what kind of costs might be associated with the creation, storage, and distribution of such an intelligence document. If the creation of such a document requires the construction of a new secure database or the joining together of existing databases, it will require, at the very least, an initial capital outlay that is not listed in the action plan. 7/10 points

International Leadership = 27/50 points

In terms of efforts to show support for, and promote, a higher global standard of protection, the action plan, while still successful, falls short of what the evaluation framework would label as complete success with regards to international leadership. For instance, when it comes to binding treaties, while the U.S. has condemned illegal Russian actions in Ukraine by saying that Russia violated the, “Geneva Conventions [by] moving exceptionally lethal weaponry [such as cluster munitions] into Ukraine,” the United States has not taken any steps to join the Convention on Cluster Munitions. Moreover, the U.S. has failed for the past forty-five years to ratify Additional Protocol II of the Geneva Convention, which emphasizes the need to ensure better protection for civilian victims of armed conflict. Furthermore, the action plan does not provide any movement towards such treaty ratification. 5/10 points

With respect to the action plan’s efforts to support or participate in other PoC-related agreements and non-binding commitments, while the action plan does not provide for U.S. participation in some new international PoC framework, it does at least make a commitment to incorporating civilian harm mitigation and response during all phase of multinational operations, encouraging and supporting allies and partners to do the same. 7/10 points

Finally, when it comes to the CHMR-AP’s support for international human rights bodies and accountability mechanisms, support at the United Nations, or supporting regional or sub-regional bodies, the plan, while not outwardly hostile to supporting international human rights bodies, makes no mention of them, which ultimately reduces the overall effectiveness of the action plan as it does not place the U.S.’ plan within the corpus of existing international PoC strategies. 10/30 points

Oversight of Security Institutions and Policies = 28/50 points

Concerning oversight, the action plan fares better, though more still could be done. In relation to the issue of independent oversight, the action plan does provide for the creation of a Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Steering Committee (CHMR SC) at DoD, which will help enable the Secretary of Defense to oversee implementation of the forthcoming DoD Instruction (DoDI) on CHMR. The co-chairs of this steering committee are to be the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (USD(P)), the Under Secretary of Defense for Comptroller (USD(C)), and the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (VCJCS). However, while the steering committee consists of high-level DoD figures, one could not possibly label such a committee as “external” or “independent”, which reduces its overall value as a meaningful oversight body. 7/10 points

Regarding how the action plan contributes to efforts towards more effective internal oversight and the creation of investigative bodies within the Department, it fares a bit better, with Objective 6 ordering DoD to develop standardized reporting and data management processes to improve how the Department learns from data received from its investigations, and Objective 7 establishing DoD-wide procedures to assess and investigate civilian harm resulting from operations. 9/10 points

However, the overall oversight portion of the action plan is largely limited to the CHMR Steering Committee, with no specific role outlined for the work of public oversight and investigatory bodies. As such, it can hardly be argued that the action plan supports the work of public and internal oversight and investigative bodies. 3/10 points

As regards the action plan’s overall support for civil society, while the civilian protection Center of Excellence is directed to work with non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and civil society organizations (CSOs); Civilian Environment Teams under the individual combatant commands are ordered to leverage information from civil society; and Civilian Harm Assessment Cells are ordered to receive and compile information related to civilian harm from civil society, the plan provides those organizations with little fundamental responsibility for actual oversight, which limits those groups’ visibility into what happens to the information that they ultimately end up providing to the Department’s CHMR teams. 5/10 points

Finally, concerning legislative oversight, while the action plan argues that, “having an enterprise-wide, comprehensive reporting and data management process will assist in collecting and maintaining accurate information, reporting publicly and to Congress, and building public trust,” the plan’s main interactions with Congress are largely limited to the Department’s unfunded requirement request for staffing, facilities, and operating costs beginning in FY23 as well as an quick note about some reporting that will be made available to the public and Congress. While Congress may certainly play a future role in overseeing the implementation of the DoD’s CHMR-AP, the current DoD document does not provide for a major oversight role for Congress. 4/10 points

National Laws and Legislation = Not Applicable 

While this section largely does not apply to the new DoD action plan, as it does not oversee the creation of any new domestic law, merely the modification of internal Department procedure, it should be noted that the action plan does, as mentioned above, encourage the participation of civil society in coming to a better understanding of the civilian environment. Furthermore, while the U.S. could certainly do more to implement international humanitarian law with regards to, for example, ratification of the Additional Protocols and the 1997 Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction, the U.S. is, at worst, uncommitted to this task, and at best, an emerging leader, as it has undertaken some efforts to adopt and implement legislation that governs the prevention, mitigation, and response to civilian harm. 

Commitment to Transparency = 15/50 points

Finally, in the context of the U.S.’ overall national commitment to and enabling structures for civilian harm mitigation and response, the action plan could do more to inform the public about current U.S. government efforts to protect civilians in its operations. In terms of the making public the domestic and international legal basis for use of lethal force, the new action plan does little, noting that, “nothing in this plan is intended to suggest that existing DoD policies or practices are legally deficient or that the actions to be implemented pursuant to this plan are legally required, including under the law of war.” 3/10 points

As far as the public reporting of information related to security operations is concerned, the action plan does a little better, with each objective containing a requirement to report to the Steering Committee on progress and challenges to implementation of the CHMR-AP; with combatant commands assigned to periodically report on efforts to incorporate CHMR lessons learned into joint targeting processes; with Objective 6 outlining the creation of improved civilian harm operational reporting and data management processes; and with Civilian Harm Assessment Cells directed to create publicly available reports regarding civilian harm resulting from operations and the quantitative and qualitative estimates of harm caused. While DoD is never likely to make publicly available all the information that civil society might prefer, the action plan does represent a positive step towards compiling the information the public needs. 7/10 points

However, with respect to the role of media and journalists in protecting civilians, the action plan makes no mention of either—a troubling oversight when one considers how the U.S. military covered up the killing of civilian journalists in Iraq in 2007 along with many other credible reports of journalists being killed by U.S. operations. 0/10 points

When considering the final two areas, security cooperation and freedom of information, the action plan also has little to offer in connection to providing better and more timely information to the public. While the document does contain a number of actions related to improving and promoting partner efforts towards civilian protection in security cooperation programs, it provides no mechanism to convey to the public the elements of tailored conditionality that will be placed on partners receiving U.S. equipment or training. 

Furthermore, outside of Objective 6’s instruction for DoD to develop standardized civilian harm operational reporting and data management processes, which, the action plan argues, “will assist in collecting and maintaining accurate information, reporting publicly and to Congress, and building public trust,” and Objective 7’s guidance that Civilian Harm Assessment Cells may publish, “publicly available reports regarding civilian harm resulting from operations,” the action plan does little overall to disclose all of the information the public needs to evaluate DoD’s future commitment to civilian protection. 5/20 points

Category 2 – Civilian Harm Prevention and Mitigation = 150/260 points = 57.69% = Emerging Leader

Use of Force = 39/50 points

The CIVIC evaluation framework’s second overall category looks more at the Department’s doctrines, plans, procedures, and training, in order to see how effective it is in preventing civilian harm from occurring in the first place. On the subject of the use of force, and the means by which the government ensures that it is consistent with international law and standards, the framework first looks at the legal basis for the use of force. While the action plan’s guidance does ensure that Civilian Harm Assessment Cells have access to legal advice from command counsel when examining possible incidents of civilian harm, the document’s insistence that, “nothing in this plan is intended to suggest that existing DoD policies or practices are legally deficient or that the actions to be implemented pursuant to this plan are legally required, including under the law of war,” demonstrates that DoD may be on the “treadmill” of PoC reform, as it gives a sense that the U.S. military is already good at protecting civilians when it manifestly is not. 5/10 points

That being said, the action plan performs better when it comes to civilian protection from attack and creating rules of engagement that protect civilians, with Objective 5’s command to DoD to do more to prevent misinterpretation and mischaracterization of individuals on the battlefield. As the action plan works to address existing deficiencies in targeting, specifically through better, “training and education, red teaming procedures, specific positive identification (PID) policies for targeting, use of structured analytic techniques, and other analytic tradecraft practices,” the policy should be considered largely a success in this area. Furthermore, the commitment to direct combatant commands to, “review guidance for targeting, target engagement authorities, and subordinate operational commanders, and ensure guidance reflects: (1) the importance of using available sources of information to understand and mitigate potential civilian harm,” is welcome. 19/20 points

Finally, when examining the action plan’s efforts to improve DoD targeting and compliance with existing international human rights law, it has a number of actions which aim to improve targeting processes, and does contain a requirement that, if during the course of a civilian harm assessment, credible information indicates that a violation of the law of war may have occurred, the Civilian Harm Assessment Cell is directed to submit the incident for reporting. 15/20 points

Planning for Operations = 52/60 points

In terms of efforts made to prevent, mitigate, and address harm during the planning of and preparation for security operations, Objective 5’s incorporation of red teams throughout the targeting process to combat biases and help mitigate misidentification mistakes; and Objective 10’s directive for, “combatant commands and subordinate operational commands coordinate with allies and partners to incorporate into coalition campaign plans, and other similar planning documents, a clear articulation of desired outcomes with respect to the civilian environment as part of overall mission objectives,” demonstrate action plan’s commitment to prioritizing civilians in the preparation for military operations. 10/10 points 

With respect to assessing civilian objects and critical infrastructure, the action plan makes clear that a thorough understanding of the civilian environment, which includes the, “civilian population and the personnel, organizations, resources, infrastructure, essential services, and systems on which civilian life depends,” is essential for the achievement of mission objectives. Furthermore, the establishment of Civilian Environment Teams, which will contain experts in civilian infrastructure and urban systems, demonstrates a fairly strong commitment to preserving civilian objects and critical infrastructure. 10/10 points

Source: https://www.justsecurity.org/78937/hidden-negligence-aug-29-drone-strike-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/
Source: https://www.justsecurity.org/78937/hidden-negligence-aug-29-drone-strike-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/

In regards to anticipating the indirect and reverberating effects of military operations, while Objective 7 provides for updating Joint Staff publications, incorporating, “how combat assessments, including battle damage assessments (BDA) and collateral damage assessments (CDA), inform and feed into civilian harm assessments, and ultimately aid in improving understanding of the civilian environment,” there is little else in the action plan that addresses the pernicious effects on civilians of the types of collateral damage that is often seen when the U.S. conducts its operations. 5/10 points

However, as concerns training U.S. forces in procedures relating to civilian harm prevention, mitigation, and response, the action plan does a great deal, attempting to incorporate guidance for addressing civilian harm into strategy, doctrine, plans, professional military education, training and exercises. Furthermore, the action plan directs the OSD, Joint Staff, and military departments to develop the, “training, personnel, and equipment that provide combatant commands the capabilities necessary to improve the joint force’s ability to preserve the civilian environment throughout operations as much as practicable.” 10/10 points

As mentioned above, in terms of the action plan’s incorporation of accurate analyses of civilian behavior and presence, Action 3.g under Objective 3 provides for an update to JP 2-0, Joint Intelligence, including, “establishing responsibilities and procedures for identifying and describing the civilian environment, including population density, patterns of life, cultural norms, and the interconnected relationships between the civilian population, natural resources, infrastructure, and essential services.” However, more could be done to specify what specifically should be done about the presence of vulnerable populations such as children or the disabled. 9/10 points

An Afghan woman who lost family members weeps after air strikes on Friday in Azizabad district of Shindand August 23, 2008. REUTERS/Mohammad Shoiab/Source: https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/afghan-president-condemns-civilian-killi-idUSISL7317520080823

Lastly, when it comes to proactive consultation with affected civilians, community leaders, CSOs, and international organizations, Objectives 2, 4, and 7 all contain requirements for DoD elements to engage with NGOs and civil society in order to better understand the overall civilian environment on the ground. However, more could be done to facilitate the active participation of civil society once DoD has created its own reports and analysis of future civilian harm incidents.  8/10 points

Community Engagement = 15/50 points

On the topic of meaningful consultation with communities in order to prevent or address incidents of civilian harm, the CHMR-AP certainly does more than currently is being done by DoD to work with locals, but even more could still be done. While the action plan’s Civilian Environment Teams will consider information from local communities and civil society, and Objective 8 provides for a more diverse menu of response options to address communities affected by U.S. military operations, it does little to proactively incorporate their needs, mainly focusing on finding out how operations affect communities after they are completed. 6/10 points

With respect to the action plan’s inclusivity, it is largely a failure. While it does not specifically enjoin combatant commands or operational commands from incorporating the voices of youth, women, disabled, or minorities, it contains no specific instruction to do so, which weakens unit commanders overall understanding of the civilian environment. When constructing Civilian Environment Teams at the operational commands, more should be done to direct them to incorporate the views of non-majority civilians in a particular battlespace, lest further cognitive biases enter into targeting processes. 4/10 points

Similarly, the action plan does little to address the concerns of community groups that remain independent or conflict-neutral, once again limiting a commander’s overall understanding of the civilian environment, and potentially increasing the risk of faulty targeting decisions. 0/10 points 

As far as informing communities about the roles, responsibilities, and structure of the military force in the area and possible disruptions to civilian life, while the action plan does direct commanders to gain a better understanding of the civilian environment, with the impact on that environment, “tested through exercises and wargames,” prior to the completion of planning for operations, the action plan merely illustrates how such information should inform planning and targeting processes and does nothing to inform local civilians about the potential impact on their lives from U.S. directed or U.S-partnered operations. 2/10 points

Finally, while the new CHMR-AP provides for measures to minimize the risk of target misidentification and mischaracterization, it does nothing to prevent harm coming to civilians caused by their interactions with U.S. military forces or their partners before or after operations. Adopting a “do no harm” approach would require the action plan to outline the steps required for U.S. soldiers to be more mindful in their engagement with individuals and communities so that they do not expose civilians to inadvertent risk of reprisals from other locals or domestic security forces. 3/10 points

At least 10 Afghan civilians, including eight schoolchildren, have been killed in fighting involving Western troops in Narang district of Kunar Province in Afghanistan./Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Narang_night_raid.jpg
At least 10 Afghan civilians, including eight schoolchildren, have been killed in fighting involving Western troops in Narang district of Kunar Province in Afghanistan./Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Narang_night_raid.jpg

Mitigating Impact During Operations = 22/50 points

With regard to the CHMR-AP’s efforts to reduce the overall impact of security operations, the document performs better. When it comes to measures to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, Objective 4 commands DoD to incorporate information about civilian population density and infrastructure on which civilians depend for their health and safety when incorporating CHMR into joint targeting processes. 9/10 points 

However, with regards to the minimization of protection risks during military operations, there is little said in the action plan, with no mention of the impact of checkpoints or curfews on the education, health, or food and water systems in an area of operations. Therefore, while one might presume that the Civilian Environment Teams will be undertaking some evaluation of such operations, the action plan’s silence on the issue does not speak well regarding its future efficacy. 3/10 points

In terms of conducting continuous assessment of the impact of operations, the civilian protection Center of Excellence is likely the best way for military planners to draw lessons about civilian harm to identify best practices. With the CoE directed to, “l track and conduct cutting-edge analyses of civilian harm data and advise DoD leaders of critical trends; manage an analytic agenda based upon operational priorities; serve as a repository of data archives, lessons learned, and good practices; document and disseminate relevant findings, including exportable training packages; and convene internal-DoD working groups to advance knowledge, share lessons, and identify areas for further development,” it is likely DoD will, after the CHMR-AP goes into practice, better understand where it can improve after future conflicts. 10/10

That said, in the matter of clear communications to civilians during operations, the action plan is, again, largely silent, as the document is more about internal procedures than external communications. Here the document could do much more to outline how it will convey its understanding of the civilian environment to the affected population. 0/10 points 

Similarly, the action plan says nothing about keeping U.S. facilities, troops, and equipment away from civilian populations, which would hopefully put the population at lesser risk from collateral damage or reprisals. 0/10

Use of Explosive Weapons = 22/50 points

The use of explosive weapons is another area in which the CHMR-AP is largely deficient, with little in the document outlining policy and practice governing the procurement and use of mortars, rockets, artillery shells, or bombs. 

While the U.S. certainly has measures in place to work to clear the explosive remnants of war in places such as Afghanistan, the CHMR-AP contains little about the selection and acquisition of harmful weapons systems, except for an update to Department of Defense Standard Practice System Safety that incorporates, “features into system safety reviews for future weapon systems that support civilian harm mitigation objectives, such as render safe, pre-planned post-launch abort, and scalable yields and a direction to the the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment (USD(A&S)) to identify potential options for increasing weapons system safety in support of CHM objectives. 7/10 points

When it comes to the employment of precision guided munitions, the action plan makes no reference to their use—or the use of lower yield explosives or reduced fragmentation systems—rendering its commitment to the use of precision weapons rather limited. 2/10 points 

Furthermore, there is no information contained in the action plan about the use of explosive weapons in populated areas outside of the more generic exhortation to better understand the overall civilian environment. Ultimately, while the action plan does require updates to JP 3-60, Joint Targeting, which includes battle damage assessments (BDA) and collateral damage assessments (CDA), there is no mention of the use of other effective mitigation measures, such as limiting the use of air-delivered munitions or indirect fire from artillery pieces. 13/20 points

Finally, while, as mentioned above, the U.S. does have some measures in place to address explosive remnants of war, the topic was left completely unaddressed in the civilian harm mitigation and response action plan, a rather glaring omission considering the deadly impact that landmines and unexploded ordnance have on civilian populations. 0/10 points

Category 3 – Civilian Harm Response (Reporting, Investigations, Tracking, and Recording) = 188/250 points = 75.2% = Leader

Incident Reporting and Initial Assessments = 46/50 points

The CIVIC evaluation framework’s third overall category examines efforts to report, investigate, track, and record incidents of civilian harm, beginning with efforts to conduct initial reporting on incidents of civilian harm when they occur. It is here that the action plan shows promise, finally making good on pleas from NGOs like CIVIC for better ways to report incidents directly to DoD, especially as current reporting mechanisms are either inaccessible to the affected publics, or the affected public is unaware of the existence of such mechanisms. 

The CHMR-AP attempts to remedy this in Objective 6 with an attempt to develop standardized civilian harm operational reporting and data management practices across DoD. Specifically, Action 6.f directs the joint proponent for CHMR at DoD to create and populate a data management platform that includes a mechanism for members of the public and non-DoD entities to submit information pertaining to civilian harm. Furthermore, Objective 7’s Action 7.d commands all existing, and newly created, Civilian Harm Assessment Cells to receive and compile information related to civilian harm from civil society organizations as well as open-source intelligence sources, including traditional and social media. 10/10 points

As far as removing barriers faced by individuals and organizations that wish to make reports on civilian harm incidents, the action plan’s directive to include information from civil society organizations—as well as the creation of Civilian Environment Teams—should hopefully create the conditions for commanders to truly understand the overall civilian environment. As Civilian Environment Teams are to be composed of intelligence professionals, this should hopefully include a number of individuals with language skills relevant to the area of operations. 8/10 points

Internal reporting is another area where the action plan performs well, with combatant commands directed to incorporate CHMR lessons learned, and report on, efforts to reduce the risk of civilian harm in future targeting processes; the joint staff and individual combatant commands ordered to establish standardized processes for reporting civilian harm; and the action plan requiring the joint proponent for CHMR to submit for publication a multi-service issuance for conducting command-directed investigations into incidents of civilian harm, which includes mandated reporting processes in support of civilian harm mitigation and response. 9/10 points

The action plan again fares well on the subject of assessing all reports, with Action 7.b directing existing and newly created CHACs to consider, “all reasonably available information in civilian harm assessments, including information from U.S. military sources, other U.S. government sources, and external sources.” 10/10 points

Lastly, in terms of reports being passed on to a competent authority, the action plan again scores highly, with Action 7.b including, “criteria for elevating in the chain of command the responsibility for conducting civilian harm assessments.” Furthermore, Action 7.a directs the individual combatant commands to designate a senior official to serve as Civilian Harm Assessment and Investigation Coordinator, who will be responsible to the commander for assessments conducted under their area of responsibility. 9/10 points

Civilian Harm Investigations = 34/50

Civilian Harm Investigations is yet another area of promise for the action plan, as these types of formal inquiries are exactly what the action plan exists to track and monitor. As mentioned above, Objective 7 does a good deal to create the framework for combatant and operational commands to conduct investigations. However, until the publication of the upcoming DoD Instruction on civilian harm mitigation occurs, it will remain to be seen what the exact procedures for investigating civilian harm actually are. Until that point, however, the action plan does get good marks for attempting to address this issue area. 8/10 points

Similarly, on the topic of witness interviews and site visits, Action 7.k outlines the creation of guidance for what to do with the information received from victim interviews and site visits. However, as the action plan lacks a formal directive to combatant and operational commanders to conduct such interviews and site visits after every alleged incident of civilian harm occurs, it renders guidance about cataloging such information a bit premature. 6/10 points

With respect to protecting witnesses and victims of civilian harm, moreover, the action plan is again, largely mute. At no point in the document does the word witness, victim or survivor appear in the text, and there is no measure of “do no harm” advocated for when U.S. forces conduct witness interviews or site visits, an oversight that could lead to reprisals against those submitting testimony about possible civilian harm caused by partner forces in the area of operations. 4/10 points

Dealing with the subject of the composition of future investigative reports, and the referral of alleged criminal incidents to an impartial investigative authority, the action plan again fares mostly well, with the CHMR-AP containing instructions to document information obtained from interviews and site visits; Objective 3 ordering Joint Staff, combatant commands, and the military departments to incorporate CHMR lessons learned and approved recommendations into future doctrine, plans, and tactics in order to mitigate future civilian harm; and Action 7.b.iii requiring that Civilian Harm Assessment Cells submit credible information about incidents of violation of the law of war to the appropriate unit commander, in accordance with DoD Directive 2311.01

However, while requirements to report violations of the law of war to unit commanders are a worthwhile step, those commanders are not truly independent and impartial authorities, and simply ordering them to, “refer information about alleged war crimes to, or request an investigation by, a responsible Defense Criminal Investigative Organization,” does not fully satisfy the CIVIC evaluation criteria on reports and criminal investigations. Furthermore, DoD Directive 2311.01 Section 4.2.b also states that, “if the unit commander or a superior commander determines that U.S. persons are not involved in a reportable incident, a U.S. investigation or review will be continued only at the direction of the appropriate Combatant Commander,” limiting the Directive’s usefulness regarding security cooperation or partnered operations. 16/20 points

Civilian Harm Tracking = 42/50 points

Civilian harm tracking is another area where the action plan again performs highly, with DoD finally outlining the capabilities, resources, and personnel required to track and reduce incidents of civilian harm in future operations. Particularly, Action 4.d directs the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security (USD(I&S)) to conduct a review of organizations, capabilities, and processes across the Defense Intelligence Enterprise, “ that contribute to collecting, disseminating, and archiving information about the civilian environment, identifying where gaps exist and resources are needed.” Furthermore, CHMR-AP Objective 6 directs DOD to develop standardized civilian harm operational reporting and data management processes. More specifically, Action 6.f directs the joint proponent for CHMR at DoD along with the Chief Information Officer, the Undersecretaries for Acquisition and Sustainment and Policy, the Joint Staff, combatant commands, the Center of Excellence and other relevant components to compile and refine requirements for a civilian harm data management platform incorporating, “information regarding U.S. operations, multinational operations, and operations with non-state actors,” which includes, “a mechanism for members of the public and other non-DoD entities to submit for consideration information regarding civilian harm.” 10/10 points

Similarly, the express purpose of the tracking mechanism in the CHMR-AP is to prevent and mitigate harm, with the Secretary of Defense’s memorandum for senior Pentagon leadership calling the protection of civilians both, “a strategic priority as well as a moral imperative,” noting that, “efforts to mitigate and respond to civilian harm directly reflect our values and also directly contribute to achieving mission success.” 10/10 points

Likewise, the tracking mechanism also seems to be designed to produce actionable information for commanders on the ground, with the Civilian Protection Center of Excellence designed to serve as a, “facilitator of DoD-wide analysis, learning, and training related to CHMR.” Furthermore, the creation of Civilian Harm Assessment Cells and Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Officers at the eleven individual combatant commands will both help ensure that CHMR is both well understood, with Action 4.a directing combatant commands and military departments to integrate CHMR considerations into exercise objectives and the joint targeting process. 10/10 points

When it comes to how the action plan addresses coordination with other civilian harm response mechanisms, while Objective 7 creates investigation coordinators at the individual combatant commands to oversee investigations, it gives few specifics about their actual conduct, leaving the specific coordination practices somewhat opaque. 6/10 points

Finally, in regards to tracking mechanisms having reliable access to accurate information and detailed records about military operations, Objective 6 does call for the creation of an enterprise-wide data management platform. However, the exact nature of what will go into the platform is still up in the air, as Action 6.a directs the joint proponent for CHMR to, in fiscal year 2022, take the lead in developing such a platform. As the action plan does not provide any more specifics, the relative success or failure of this platform will largely hinge on the success of the CHMR joint proponent’s efforts in creating a truly robust data management platform. 6/10 points

Public Reporting and Transparency = 27/50 points

However, the action plan does less well vis-à-vis measures of public reporting and transparency, though there are some nods in the document relating towards more public disclosure of information on possible civilian harm done in U.S operations. 

That being said, the action plan does not disclose the assessment criteria that will guide CHACs in assessing external reports of harm. Furthermore, there is nothing in the action plan that requires a definitive use by DoD officials of publicly-submitted information, other than noting that the CHACs functions include identifying, receiving, and compiling information related to civilian harm, “including information from…civil society organizations.” While it does not foreclose a future disclosure of such evaluation criteria, the action plan’s silence on the issue is not very reassuring. 4/10 points

Furthermore, while the action plan does finally direct DoD to review and update its guidance on how to respond  to confirmed incidents of civilian harm done by U.S. military operations, such acknowledgements of harm, or condolence payments, are only directed for cases where it is determined that U.S. forces are directly responsible and the action plan does not say anything about commenting on ongoing investigations. As such, while the action plan is a step in the right direction, it is still somewhat lacking in providing information to other potential victims or next of kin about what happened if the incident is determined not to have been caused by U.S. forces, but instead by partners or allies. 6/10 points

Similarly, the public disclosure of processes and records relating to civilian harm incidents seems to only apply when it is determined that such incidents occurred as a result of U.S. troops’ actions. Furthermore, the action plan does not contain within it any requirements for DoD to disclose information about its investigative processes or records to the public outside of an passing reference to the newly-created data management process assisting in, “reporting publicly and to Congress and building public trust.” 5/10 points

Still, the action plan does perform better when it comes to civilian casualty reporting, with Action 3.k directing combatant commanders to better understand the, “authorities and responsibilities among coalition partners, conventional forces, and special operations forces to enable timely and accurate civilian casualty reporting and to address civilian harm mitigation and response issues.” However, the action plan could do more in directing commanders to issue regular reports on the sources of harm, type of harm experienced, location of incidents, and reasons for discrepancies with accounts from NGO or media sources, though CHACs are directed to compile such open-source reports. 8/10 points

In spite of that, however, the action plan does little to direct commanders to publicly disclose the time and location of their operations in order to prevent civilian harm incidents from occurring in the first place. While the creation of Civilian Environment Teams should help commanders better understand the civilian environment as part of the overall operational environment, it does little good to civilians on the battlefield if they do not also have access to information telling them when to avoid certain locations. That being said, Action 3.n does note that combatant commands and military departments are ordered to integrate CHMR considerations into exercises, joint targeting processes, and humanitarian notification and deconfliction systems, so there is at least some thought put in towards how to better provide information to humanitarian organizations operating in the battlespace. 4/10 points

Civilian Harm Recording = 39/50 points

Regarding the systems and processes for recording incidents of civilian harm, the action plan again fares better, with DoD being ordered to create robust systems to support reporting of such incidents. 

Specifically, Objective 6 of the CHMR-AP directs the creation of standardized civilian harm operational reporting and data management processes to improve how DoD collects, shares, and learns from data related to civilian harm. However, the action plan could do more to direct DoD to liaise with the national health systems in countries where operations are ongoing to better and more fully understand the impact of operations on civilians. 8/10 points

As far as the support given to independent or international efforts to record civilian casualties, the newly established Civilian Environment Teams are directed to consider information from open-source sources as well as civil society and foreign governments. Furthermore, Civilian Harm Assessment Cells are ordered to compile information regarding civilian harm incidents from those same sources, as well as traditional and social media. 9/10 points

The created systems should also apply common definitions and standards, as the data management tool will be overseen by the joint proponent for civilian harm mitigation and response, which should keep a multiplicity of definitions and standards from complicating the project. 9/10 points

With respect to applying the information about incidents of civilian harm to future policy and tactics, the Civilian Protection Center of Excellence should service as, “the hub and facilitator of Department-wide analysis, learning, and strategic approaches,” and, “help institutionalize good practices for civilian harm mitigation and response during operations.” The CP CoE not only provides reach-back and deployable expertise to operational commands, it will exist to, “(1) advise relevant offices throughout DoD on the development and maintenance of relevant policies, regulations, standards, and doctrine; (2) develop CHMR training for integration into professional military education (PME), including to establish professional tracks and certification for key personnel and functions; (3) integrate CHMR approaches in preparation for future conflicts as well as competition outside the context of armed conflict; and (4) identify and promote the development and use of capabilities and tactics that support effective CHMR.” 10/10 points

Unfortunately, the action plan fails in terms of ascertaining the fate of missing persons, with no mention of missing individuals, or their remains, included anywhere in the document. 3/10 points 

Category 4 – Amends and Reparations – 129/220 points = 58.63% = Emerging Leader

Post-Harm Amends = 46/50 points

The final major category in CIVIC’s framework for preventing, mitigating, and addressing civilian harm pertains to efforts to provide redress to those harmed and ensure accountability for perpetrators of violence against civilians. Specifically, the evaluation framework first examines efforts to acknowledge and express condolence for harm, including both monetary and non-monetary forms of assistance. 

The first element of proper policy for post-harm amends is a process for condolence—which the action plan helpfully creates—with an adequately resourced process to receive and process requests for amends caused by lawful operations. Specifically, Action 8.a notes that the forthcoming DoD Instruction on CHMR will identify, “that [the] fundamental purposes of acknowledgements and responses include expressing condolences to civilians affected by U.S. operations and helping to address the direct impacts experienced,” and will provide, “standardized guidance for publicly releasing information relating to civilian harm, including the status and results of civilian harm assessments, including the publishing of such information on at least a quarterly basis.” 

Furthemore, Action 7.d directs the newly-formed CHACs to, “support the command in taking actions in response to civilian harm, such as through public or private acknowledgements of civilian harm and expressions of condolences.” Finally, Action 8.c.iv directs the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy to update the Interim Regulations for Condolence or Sympathy Payments to Friendly Civilians for Injury or Loss That is Incident to Military Operations, in order to, “create procedures for consulting with and/or expressing condolences to those who have been harmed or their next of kin, or representatives who can speak to their interests, unless otherwise not feasible or appropriate.” 10/10 points

Similarly, vis-à-vis acknowledging incidents of civilian harm caused by U.S. operations,  Action 8.d directs combatant commands to, “identify all available authorities that can be used to respond to civilian harm and provide guidance to subordinate commanders on the use of these authorities as well as other ways of acknowledging harm, such as verbal or written acknowledgements and condolences.” Furthermore, Action 7.b.ii.d directs the forthcoming DoD Instruction on CHRM to, “enable acknowledgements and, as appropriate, other responses to civilians harmed by operations.” 10/10 points

Likewise, the new action plan creates policies governing the offer and provision of condolence payments that are culturally appropriate, with Objective 8.i directing the CP CoE to identify, “lessons learned and best practices to aid operational commanders in affirmatively tailoring their responses to civilian harm in a manner appropriate to their operations and the contexts in which harm occurred.” However, as the document does not go into detail about the exact process for creating such culturally appropriate condolences, it does not perfectly match the evaluation criteria. 9/10 points

However, the document does make clear that commanders on the ground should consider a broad range of acknowledgements, apologies, and expressions of regret, in addition to monetary or practical assistance, noting in Action 7.c that combatant commands should, “provide guidance for commanders and their staffs that address the range of potential accountability measures and corrective actions that, where appropriate, can be taken to address matters related to civilian harm incidents.” Furthermore, Action 8.c.v states that the updated e Interim Regulations for Condolence or Sympathy Payments to Friendly Civilians for Injury or Loss That is Incident to Military Operations (Interim Regulations) should, “provide a range of responses to be considered by commanders, under existing authorities, so that appropriate responses can be offered whenever circumstances permit,” and Action 8.h directing the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy to replace or supplement the Interim Regulations with, “comprehensive and enduring DoD policy regulations that address the full range of legally available options to acknowledge and respond to civilian harm.” 10/10 points

Finally, the action plan also does well to take a comprehensive view of civilian losses, noting that it is not just the loss of individual lives that merit acknowledgment, but the destruction of infrastructure and the loss of vital medical care that needs to be responded to. However, the action plan could do better in more clearly defining “civilian harm” to include loss of livelihood caused by U.S. operations, as well as the psychological, or other more intangible, effects of war on the civilian population. 7/10 points

Reparation and Victim’s Rights = 23/50 points

What the action plan does not do, however, is provide a clear process for reparations claims or a right to full and effective reparations that is understandable by victims. While Objective 8 does outline a process for the U.S. to acknowledge incidents of civilian harm and make amends, it does not clearly articulate to victims, or their next of kin, to apply for condolence payments or to request acknowledgement of harm. While Action 8.c.iv requires new, “procedures for consulting with and/or expressing condolences to those who have been harmed or their next of kin, or representatives who can speak to their interests, unless otherwise not feasible or appropriate,” the action plan does not provide more detail, and the steps that victims or next of kin would have to undertake are, so far, unclear. 8/20 points

Likewise, under the action plan, victims are not entitled to access information about themselves or their dependents, with little guidance on how victims will be involved in the reparations and amends process. 3/10 points

However, the action plan does better pertaining to treating those who are harmed properly, with Objective 8 arguing that, “as the Department takes steps to improve its ability to mitigate civilian harm, DoD will also improve its ability to consistently and appropriately acknowledge and respond to civilian harm when it occurs and to treat those who are harmed with dignity and respect.” While it does not delve into how its accountability measures will avoid re-traumatization of victims, the commitment to treat those harmed with dignity is a positive first step towards treating victims properly. 8/10 points

Lastly, in regards to victims’ access to evidence, the action plan is once again, largely mute. However, based on a reading of the entire action plan, it is highly unlikely that such information will be made readily available to victims, as the reporting systems being created under the CHMR-AP are much more for internal reporting than for liaising with a victimized civilian public. 3/10 points

Assistance for Survivors and Victims of Explosive Remnants of War = 19/40 points

Put rather simply, the action plan does little to address the impact of the remnants of explosives—such as mines or unexploded ordnance—with no mention of the word explosives, artillery, air strikes, bombs, or any specific type of weapon of war. However, as mentioned above, Action 4.k does require the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment (USD(A&S)), in coordination with Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineer (USD(R&E)) to update DoD’s Standard Practice System Safety manual to, “ incorporate features into system safety reviews for future weapon systems that support civilian harm mitigation objectives, such as render safe, pre-planned post-launch abort, and scalable yields,” which will hopefully prevent such explosive remnants of war from making a deleterious impact on civilians in the first place. 4/10 points

That being said, the action plan is largely silent on how its victims’ assistance programs align with other existing programs benefiting marginalized or otherwise affected communities. 2/10 points

However, the action plan does more in terms of providing assistance or condolences to survivors and their next of kin. Moreover, the forthcoming DoD Instruction on CHMR will allegedly contain an institutional framework for how DoD will respond to civilian harms by operations, “including through public and private acknowledgements and responses to civilian harm, at individual or community levels, and at different time horizons following instances of civilian harm.” 9/10 points

However, once again, the action plan could do more to direct combatant commanders to work to make available to affected publics’, information about the assistance, acknowledgement, and condolence programs that will be created. As is currently structured, victims—and their families—will most likely have to proactively pursue such reparations rather than having U.S. forces proactively advertise the availability of such amends and reparations processes. 4/10 points 

Repair and Restoration of Services and Infrastructure = 27/40 points

As far as the restoration and repair of essential services and infrastructure goes, the action plan at least acknowledges a need to, “protect the civilian environment as much as the situation allows—including the civilian population and the personnel, organizations, resources, infrastructure, essential services, and systems on which civilian life depends.” However, while Objective 8 directs DoD to make available, “a diverse menu of response options to respond to individuals and communities affected by U.S. military operations — including public and private acknowledgements of harm, condolence payments, medical care, repairs to damaged structures and infrastructure, ordnance removal, and locally-held commemorative events or symbols,” the individual actions outlined do not create any standard operating procedure for the restoration of infrastructure or essential services once it has been determined that U.S. forces bear responsibility. Ultimately, while the overall commitment to the idea is there, the specifics are lacking. 7/10 points

People hold belongings as they stand in front of a house whom the Afghan government said was bombed by the U.S.-led coalition forces on Friday in Azizabad district of Shindand, in Afghanistan August 23, 2008. REUTERS/Mohammad Shoiab/Source: https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/afghan-president-condemns-civilian-killi-idUSISL7317520080823

Furthermore, as mentioned above, there is no mention of unexploded ordnance in the action plan outside of Objective 8’s reference to “ordnance removal” as being one of the range of options for commanders on the ground to utilize. As such, while the action plan contains at least a rhetorical commitment to removing such dangerous and harmful objects, the actual text of the plan could do more to create a definitive responsibility for U.S. forces to do so. 7/10 points

Similarly, while Objective 8 contains a reference to repairing damaged structures and infrastructure caused by U.S. military operations, none of the specific actions outlined for fiscal year’s 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 creates specific guidance for how and when commanders should undertake such repair efforts. 7/10 points

Lastly, while the action plan does create a process for receiving and processing incidents of civilian harm from U.S. operations, there is nothing in the document that specifically directs the creation of a process whereby alleged victims can submit their own request for compensation or repair. As such, the processing of claims of civilian harm largely relies on reporting done by DoD personnel and reports from civil society, international organizations, and open-source intelligence. Therefore, while the rhetorical commitment to assisting victims does exist, the specifics are lacking. 6/10 points

Criminal Accountability = 14/40 points

The final main section of the CIVIC evaluation framework for amends and reparations covers issues of criminal accountability and holding perpetrators to account for violations of international law. 

However, the action plan does not carry with it a rejection of amnesty or targeted immunities for war crimes and violations of international law. While the document does direct CHACs to promptly submit the incident for reporting in accordance with DoD Directive 2311.01 if, “credible information indicates that a violation of the law of war may have occurred,” there is no specific prohibition on providing amnesties or targeted immunities to U.S. forces implicated in such incidents or for allied forces or non-state actors. This is especially troubling when one considers the history of U.S. interference in international efforts to hold itself and allies responsible for incidents of harm to civilians. 3/10 points

Moreover, investigations that are eventually conducted have little requirements to render them impartial, as unit commanders are the individuals immediately tasked with ensuring investigations are carried out properly, though they are certainly not impartial actors in such a situation when it is their own troops that are alleged to have committed a violation. Rather than conducting such investigations directly through the existing chain of command for the area of operations, a separate investigatory arm reporting directly to the OSD should instead take over investigation of credible allegations of civilian harm caused by U.S. forces.  3/10 points

However, criminal investigations of alleged crimes perpetrated against civilians should take place under the action plan, as Action 7.b.iii.j carries a, “requirement that, if, during the course of a civilian harm assessment, evidence demonstrates that any other crime may have occurred, the CHAC will ensure that information is included in the assessment and promptly reported to appropriate law enforcement authorities in accordance with existing reporting procedures.” 7/10 points

Finally, however, there is no commitment to prosecute or extradite those alleged to have committed international crimes, which is especially troubling as the U.S. is not a state party to the Rome statute, and, as such, is not bound to allow the International Criminal Court to adjudicate violations of the law of war. While the action plan does contain a rhetorical commitment to bringing perpetrators to justice, it remains to be seen exactly how DoD will handle future incidents involving war crimes possibly perpetrated by U.S. forces. 1/10 points

Annex A – Support Relationships (Partnered and Coalition Operations, Security Assistance, and Arms Transfers) = 33/50 points = 66% = Emerging Leader

As efforts to address incidents of civilian harm perpetrated in allied or partnered operations are largely confined to CHMR-AP Objectives 9 and 10, this section of the evaluation will largely skip assigning individual point grades to the specific elements of the evaluation framework to provide a more general, overall sense of how the action plan meets these goals. 

Selection and Conditions (Security Assistance or Arms Providers) = 9/10 points

Overall, the action plan does well to address the behavior of allies or partner governments, with Objective 9 directing planners to, “incorporate civilian harm risk assessment and mitigation methods in DoD security cooperation programs that improve or enable partner kinetic capabilities to reduce the risk of civilian harm from their operations.” More specifically, Action 9.a directs the Under Secretary of Defense for policy to include in the upcoming DoD Instruction on CHMR, “efforts to (1) encourage and support ally and partner forces in developing additional capabilities to reduce the risk of civilian harm.”

Additionally, Action 9.a directs the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy to establish procedures to assess and monitor the willingness and practices of allies and partners to actually implement CHMR best practices. Furthermore, Action 9.b directs the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) to integrate CHMR into its programs and activities across the security cooperation enterprise, “including those developed and implemented by DSCA, combatant commands, military departments, and other DoD and OSD components.” Moreover, the action plan directs DSCA to create a CHMR Baselines of Allies and Partners (CBAP) to shape security cooperation program design and leverage tailored conditionality to set expectations with partners that these programs can be modified in case of poor behavior. 

Due Diligence (Providers, Co-Equal Partners, and Recipients) = 9/10 points

The action plan again does well vis-à-vis its due diligence for partners, with Action 9.i.iii creating, “a definition of tailored conditionality that includes setting conditions for security cooperation relationships specific to a partner’s CHMR capability and will, as well as the wider goals of the relationship.” Furthermore, Action 9.i.viii orders the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy to incorporate, “into partner engagements and defense article and service transfer agreements an understanding that recipients of security cooperation will provide pre-transfer assurances that document willingness to apply appropriate civilian harm mitigation measures.” While the action plan does not detail the exact risk assessment criteria that will be used, the plan is still largely a step in the right direction in this area. 

Monitoring = 6/10 points

On the topic of the systems and protocols required to evaluate the effects of U.S. support on partners’ efforts to prevent civilian harm, the action plan is somewhat less inspiring, offering little room for civil society or international organizations to provide reports on partner or ally behavior in military operations. For the most part, the action plan envisions such reviews as being conducted entirely by specific DoD elements, especially the DSCA. However, the action plan does commit the U.S. to continuous monitoring of partner behavior once they become recipients of arms transfers or other forms of security cooperation; and the action plan also commits to instituting a system of tailored conditionality that will allow the U.S. to alter or halt the security cooperation relationship if things proceed unsatisfactorily. 

Joint Protocols (“Interoperability”) = 4/10 points

Here, once again, while the action plan does come with a rhetorical commitment to prevent, mitigate, and address harm in the context of a security partnership, it does not address how it will confront poor partner behavior other than oblique references to the idea of some kind of tailored conditionality. Often, even when such tailored conditionality has proven ineffective, the U.S. has still determined to maintain its partnerships. 

Technical Assistance for Preventing, Minimizing/Mitigating and Addressing Harm = 5/10 points

The final element of the evaluation framework to apply to DoD’s new Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan also reveals the plan as somewhat lacking. While Action 9.b directs DSCA to establish a CHMR office to gather, “training, education, and advising materials for partner engagement to be held in a central repository for use across the security cooperation enterprise,” and Action 10.m directs combatant commands and military departments to, “integrate CHMR considerations into multinational training and exercise objectives,” the action plan fails in a number of ways to provide the technical assistance needed to minimize and address civilian harm incidents. More specifically, the action plan does not list any types of weapons systems to receive special monitoring, nor does it address how to specifically improve a partner’s capacity. However, the action plan does endeavor to mainstream the application of such principles and the protection of civilians into training and educational activities, which is, at least, a start. 

Final Thoughts

Overall, while the final scores might not directly show it, the action plan is a tremendously good start, and the overall commitment shown by DoD to actually work to address how civilian harm can impact the overall operational environment is heartening. However, no one should regard this action plan as a finished product, especially with the forthcoming DoD Instruction on Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response still remaining to be completed. Furthermore, with the action plan scoring top marks in only the category of civilian harm response, it is clear that the U.S. still has some ways to go when it comes to its overall commitment to CHRM—as well as its efforts towards tracking, mitigation, and making amends—if it wants to truly be a world leader on the issue. 

However, it is important to note that efforts to finally address DoD’s poor legacy of inaction on civilian casualties, and their impacts on the operational environment are thoroughly welcome. As Capt. Bill Urban, spokesman for U.S. Central Command told the New York Times back in December 2021, “the potential for incidental civilian harm to feed the ideological hatred espoused by our enemies in the post 9-11 conflicts and supercharge the recruiting of the next generation of violent extremists, made the object of minimizing the risk of civilian harm a strategic necessity as well as a legal and moral imperative.”

While it is certainly good that DoD has finally woken up to the tremendous impact that inadvertent harm to civilians can cause to U.S. objectives in the operational environment, there is still more that needs to be done. As such, researchers, think tanks, civil society, and international NGOs will need to do their utmost to ensure that not only is the CHMR-AP implemented, but that it is continuously updated so that it addresses its already existing deficiencies and any that are discovered in the process of creating its data management platform. Failure here not only carries tremendous risks to civilians in combat areas around the globe, but a risk to U.S. foreign policy objectives, as well.

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Primum non nocere: Protecting Civilians in UN Peacekeeping Missions

August 19, 2022

Earlier this month, the Center for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC) published, “Protecting Civilians While Avoiding Harm: The Implementation of ‘Do No Harm’ by UN Peacekeepers in South Sudan,” which examines the ways in which the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) can do to more to create a better environment for the protection of civilians. The piece, written by CIVIC’s Daniel Levine-Spound, not only provides a template for how the UN can contribute to the creation of a better protective environment in South Sudan, but also contains a number of suggestions that would be useful elsewhere in Africa as well as around the globe. 

The concept of a “do no harm” (DNH) approach, which is embedded in the United Nations’ 2019 policy on the Protection of Civilians in United Nations Peacekeeping, outlines that individual, “must be mindful in their activities and engagement with individuals and communities not to expose civilians to risk or to cause harm, including by exposing civilians to possible reprisals for cooperation with the mission.” Furthermore, the concept states that confidentiality must be observed when using sources in the community; that military and police operations take all necessary precautions to prevent and minimize harm to civilians; and that decision makers need to exhibit zero tolerance for sexual exploitation or abuse by peacekeepers. 

Despite this definition being part of the UN’s policy guidance, Levine-Spound argues that more could be done to mainstream the DNH concept in the peacekeeping context, as certain activities UNMISS engages in could pose an elevated risk of harm to communities despite the mission’s best intentions. In that light, it is worth taking a look at “do no harm” in a peacekeeping context; its applicability in the current environment in South Sudan; and an examination of where else that putting “do no harm” into action could pay dividends. 

Do No Harm in South Sudan

According to Levine-Spound’s analysis, despite the addition of “do no harm” into the 2019 UN POC policy, the concept’s application remains more limited in the peacekeeping context compared to its more pervasive use in planning for humanitarian interventions. The concept, which is closely related to the notion of “conflict sensitivity”—defined by the international non-profit, the CDA Collaborative, as, “the practice of understanding how aid interacts with conflict in a particular context, to mitigate unintended negative effects, and to influence conflict positively wherever possible, through humanitarian, development and/or peacebuilding interventions,”—understands that merely introducing aid into a conflict situation risks tipping a delicate balance of power, which can lead to conflict and violence. In that light, a “conflict sensitive” approach that tries to “do no harm” would be one that takes into account both the possible positive and negative impacts of a given intervention in terms of its potential impact on conflict dynamics; the overall context in which aid is provided; and how the conflict dynamics ultimately impact the outside intervention. 

Furthermore, instituting a “do no harm” approach is distinct from the UN peacekeeping policy’s civilian harm mitigation obligations, which generally relates more to how peacekeepers employ the use of force during their interventions. Although there exists a good degree of overlap between the two concepts—and a DNH policy would obviously include restrictions on the use of force by peacekeepers—civilian harm mitigation applies more to peacekeeping operations involving possible kinetic engagements. 

Either way, application of a “do no harm” policy is advised in South Sudan due to the number of potential flashpoints for civilian harm that exist in the country. In particular, while most are aware that South Sudan is still struggling to rebuild state capacity following the brutal civil war in 2013, fewer may be aware of how, as the violence has ebbed, the UN Security Council has shifted the nature of UNMISS operations. For instance, in 2020, the UN began to transition the Protection of Civilians (POC) sites that it had set up at the outbreak of the war in 2013 into internally displaced persons (IDP) camps to be administered by the South Sudanese government. This came despite a continued sense of impunity amongst the soldiers of the South Sudan Army, some of whose members are accused of illegal detentions, torture, and summary executions. 

Furthermore, efforts to address this pervasive sense of impunity have largely failed to have an impact on the South Sudanese armed forces, making their continued custodianship of displaced persons camps even more troubling. Moreover, with ongoing violence in the country and political elites frequently putting the brakes on implementation of the 2018 peace agreement, UNMISS must be very careful—in implementing its mandate to, amongst other things, “foster a secure environment for the safe, informed, voluntary, and dignified return, relocation, resettlement, or integration into host communities of the millions of people displaced by the conflicts in South Sudan and in neighboring countries, including those who fled to UN bases and are now living in redesignated POC sites,”–not to provide support to South Sudanese leadership that eventually ends up harming the civilian population. 

For instance, while the UN Mission has a mandate to provide support and capacity building to state actors such as the country’s law enforcement actors or its court system, Levine-Spound argues that such UN support could end up being used to empower a South Sudanese National Security Service (NSS) that has been provided with overly broad powers under the country’s 2014 National Security Service Act; which its officers have been accused of abusing in order to, “target people deemed to be anti-government, including human rights defenders, journalists, opposition party members and suspected rebels,” as well as, “people accused of fraud, petty offenses, or at the behest of individuals fulfilling personal vendettas.” Therefore, without further safeguards, UNMISS support could contribute to even further abuses committed by the NSS. 

The 2020 Independent Strategic Review of UNMISS contained similar complaints about the behavior of the South Sudan National Police Service (SSNPS), which has seen officers and police stations, “lack the basic infrastructure and equipment required to perform their roles, such as electricity, forms for recording crimes and a secure space for storing files.” As a result, “low-level extortion by underpaid police officers is common in South Sudan and the police service remains heavily militarized in some areas of the country.” 

To give an example of how UNMISS’s provision of assistance to state security forces can still carry risks, Levine-Spound looks at the case of the Joint Police Force (JPF) in Bentiu, which was tasked with taking over policing duties from UNMISS officers at the POC site there when it was redesignated as a site for internally displaced persons back in 2020. As part of that effort, UNMISS completed construction of a new police post for thirty-six South Sudanese officers serving with both the SSNPS and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition, provided training, organized joint patrols, and offered the JPF logistical support. Despite this, both the people in the camps and humanitarian actors were concerned about whether the JPF will actually protect civilians, with one civilian Levine-Spound spoke to saying of the JPF that, “I don’t trust them, because some of them are among the looters, you find them in the day wearing uniforms but at night they can attack and they loot.” 

Therefore, Levine-Spound argues, it is vital that UNMISS incorporate a “do no harm” approach when providing support to the JPF, SSNPS, or the South Sudan National Security Services. Given the overall weakness of the South Sudan justice system, even the construction of new detention camps to alleviate the poor living conditions of South Sudanese prisoners could be misused by security services to detain children or as future torture sites.

In order to protect against such abuses, UNMISS needs to rigorously assess and monitor the ways its support is used in order to determine the long-term effects of its assistance. Therefore, alongside technical support, such as the establishment of new prisons, UNMISS must also assist decision makers in implementing needed legislative reforms to reestablish the rule of law in South Sudan. In one example of how the UN can assist part of that effort, UNMISS might decide to scale up support to organizations that provide services for survivors and witnesses testifying in South Sudan’s mobile court hearings. 

Another risk area that UNMISS must be cognizant of is when assisting efforts to address the relocation, resettlement, and integration into host communities of IDPS and refugees. With over 300,000 refugees and over 2,000,0000 internally displaced persons living in South Sudan, and in a, “context where land rights are disputed, comprehensive records on land ownership are lacking, and land disputes are often deeply connected to the ethnic and political dimensions of the conflict,” finding homes for nearly two and a half million people is an extremely delicate and difficult task. As such, even when attempting to assist the South Sudan government in resolving the problem, there is a risk that a lack of contextual knowledge by UNMISS personnel can lead to abuse of the return process by political actors in South Sudan. For instance, while 2021 saw the movement of thousands of IDPs from Melut County to Baliet County in Upper Nile State, facilitated by UNMISS logistical support, some humanitarian outfits told Levine-Spound that given contested land rights in the Baliet County area, such movements could provoke negative humanitarian consequences in the long term as political actors attempt to ethnically reengineer the region for future political gain. . 

Ultimately, when considering repatriation, the primary concern must be that such returns are truly voluntary, which is difficult given the political pressure surrounding returns, as there are fears that government officials might use forced returns in order to, “ build up demographic majorities for their constituencies with a view to a future election, while ensuring that other groups – more likely to vote against them – remain displaced.”

Finally, yet another area in which UN Mission’s must take extra care is when conducting any and all interactions with civilians. When missions interact with civilians, they can expose them to the risk of even accidental reprisal from those forces in the country that oppose the foreign intervention. Furthermore, Levine-Spound notes, this risk is particularly elevated when UNMISS assists efforts in addressing sexual or gender-based violence (SGBV) or conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV). In such cases, the societal stigma attached to survivors of sexual assault brings with it an added duty of care on the behalf of peacekeepers. As Levine-Spound expounds, international actors like UNMISS can avoid re-traumatizing victims by confidentially sharing information with other relevant groups and ensuring that their programming takes a survivor-centered approach to dealing with the aftermath of such violence.

Mainstreaming “Do No Harm” in UN Peacekeeping Missions

Balancing a philosophy of robust engagement with civilians against a strategy of “do no harm” can be a tough circle to square, as interactions with foreign peacekeepers can ultimately be a dangerous undertaking for civilians in conflict-related settings. However, in recent years, the UN has strengthened implementation of its Human Rights Due Diligence Policy (HRDDP), prohibiting UN support to government security forces when there is real risk of those forces harming civilians or committing violations of international law. 

However, Levine-Spound argues that more can be done, with the UN needing to increase the number of staff dedicated to implementation of the Human Rights Due Diligence Policy, increased monitoring of how exactly UN support is used by state forces, and ensuring that HRDDP is a part of the overall strategy of the Mission, rather than simply a bureaucratic exercise in box-ticking. 

An example of how this can be done in practice is how UNMISS Civil Affairs Division staff adopted a community engagement strategy that established “do no harm” as a guiding principle and includes a “do no harm” checklist staff can use to help ensure community activities are done in a way that safeguards the civilian population. Furthermore, Levine-Spound notes that the Civil Affairs Division also has created templates that aid its officers in mapping both local stakeholders and the root causes of conflict in a given area in order to promote conflict sensitivity and a DNH philosophy in their actions on the ground. 

However, Levine-Spound argues that beyond the Mission’s Civil Affairs Division and its Human Rights Division, conflict sensitivity in programmatic activities is more often applied on an ad hoc basis, based more on the specific experience and knowledge of particular practitioners rather than as a systemic element of the Mission’s organizational design. When coupled with the frequent turnover of personnel experienced at these missions, such institutional knowledge is hard to retain, and leads to a haphazard approach to DNH. Therefore, decision makers should take care to incorporate efforts like those of UNMISS’s Civil Affairs and Human Rights Divisions in order to make the mitigation of potential civilian harm an essential element of every aspect of the Mission.

In order to make better use of the UN’s Human Rights Due Diligence Policy, the UN must more stringently evaluate whether assistance recipients are likely to violate international law or commit human rights violations. If analysis shows such a scenario is likely, the UN must either withhold its support or come to an agreement with the host country to allow for more stringent monitoring of how UN assistance is eventually used, with the UN retaining the ability to withdraw any and all assistance if conditions are deemed unsatisfactory. 

However, doing so will require a more robust commitment than the Mission has already demonstrated. As Levine-Spound points out, only two UNMISS Human Rights Division officers are tasked with HRDDP implementation, while other missions, such as MONUSCO in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, have a dedicated secretariat devoted to implementing HRDDP. As such, it takes days for requests to be approved, compromising overall mission effectiveness and the overall implementation of the policy. 

In incorporating such a philosophy, UNMISS could do more to improve how it monitors the support it provides, by, for example, ensuring that after it builds police stations, they are not used as torture sites or to indefinitely detain women or children. Such follow-up is vital, as, worryingly, Levine-Spound’s report notes a 2020 Office of Internal Oversight Services audit, which found that in 35 of 38 cases where UNMISS provided support to South Sudanese security forces, there was, “no subsequent follow-up by HRD and other relevant mission components on beneficiaries’ compliance with the required conditions,” with the oversight failure primarily due to the fact that insufficient staffing prevented a more investigation. 

Finally, there is the issue that UNMISS rarely rejects support requests due to the Human Rights Due Diligence Policy process, largely because the process is seen as a technical safeguard rather than as an overarching process to guide strategic decision-making. Only by implementing the policy at the top level of the Mission Leadership Team, and as part of the overall strategic decision-making process for the Mission, can UN officials truly incorporate HRDDP into every aspect of Mission operations. 

19 June is annually marked as the International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict. In this regard, the UN Peacekeeping mission’s Human Rights Division in partnership with the Women’s Protection Unit, organized a two-day awareness-raising forum on this important issue for communities in Lokirili County, Aru Junction, Central Equatoria. Women and girls continue to be disproportionately impacted by conflict in South Sudan. Photos by Isaac Billy/UNMISS/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/unmissmultimedia/52152965728/
19 June is annually marked as the International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict. In this regard, the UN Peacekeeping mission’s Human Rights Division in partnership with the Women’s Protection Unit, organized a two-day awareness-raising forum on this important issue for communities in Lokirili County, Aru Junction, Central Equatoria. Women and girls continue to be disproportionately impacted by conflict in South Sudan. Photos by Isaac Billy/UNMISS/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/unmissmultimedia/52152965728/

Ultimately, UN peacekeeping missions have both a moral and practical obligation to better incorporate a “do no harm” strategy into all elements of the assistance mission, as abuse of civilians at the hands of security forces reduces perceptions of government legitimacy. As Helmoed Heitman has written for the Africa Center for Strategic Studies’, “acceptance and trust by the people,” is a fundamental requirement for African security services, as, “without [it], effective operations against groups moving and operating among the people are not possible.” 

Fundamentally, without the trust and acceptance of the people that they protect and serve, African security forces will not only be ineffective, but they are likely to engage in abuse against those same civilians they are ordered to protect. Similarly, without the trust of the civilian population, UN peacekeepers will be similarly ineffective and run the risk of exacerbating already difficult situations for the population on the ground. 

While “do no harm” is a well-developed concept in the field of humanitarian assistance, it is often not as thoroughly inculcated in the world of militarized peacekeeping. In as fragile a context as South Sudan, “the credibility of UNMISS, and the United Nations more broadly, requires a “do no harm” approach, working with unified entities and balancing engagement between government and non-governmental actors,” as the 2020 UN Independent Strategic Review of UNMISS noted

Thai engineers repair essential supply route in South Sudan/Juba, 20 November 2021: From January-April 2021, UNMISS engineers from Thailand recently repaired the 155-km main supply route linking South Sudan's capital, Juba, to Yei, thereby boosting trade, ensuring communities can convene, connect and have access to necessary services. Photo by Sontaya Noisa-ard/UNMISS/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/unmissmultimedia/51691431267/
Thai engineers repair essential supply route in South Sudan/Juba, 20 November 2021: From January-April 2021, UNMISS engineers from Thailand recently repaired the 155-km main supply route linking South Sudan’s capital, Juba, to Yei, thereby boosting trade, ensuring communities can convene, connect and have access to necessary services. Photo by Sontaya Noisa-ard/UNMISS/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/unmissmultimedia/51691431267/

Do No Harm in Other United Nations Peacekeeping Missions in Africa

MINUSMA

The Jordanian Quick Reaction Force (QRF) of MINUSMA is composed of a special operations company to secure MINUSMA civilian personnel in the field of operations in order to provide assistance to the civilian population in remote and difficult to access areas due to the security situation in Mali./Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/minusma/52212205585/
The Jordanian Quick Reaction Force (QRF) of MINUSMA is composed of a special operations company to secure MINUSMA civilian personnel in the field of operations in order to provide assistance to the civilian population in remote and difficult to access areas due to the security situation in Mali./Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/minusma/52212205585/

However, as pointed out by the 2020 Independent Strategic Review, UNMISS is not the only mission where UN credibility could be bolstered by incorporating a “do no harm” approach from the top-down. In Mali, a 2022 UN report noted a 16% rise in civilian killings in the last six months of 2021, with jihadists, armed militias, and the Malian armed forces responsible for the deaths of close to 600 civilians last year. More disconcertingly, the Malian military was accused of being responsible for the deaths of at least twenty-five civilians and the arbitrary execution of at least seven civilians in one October 2021 incident. This came after violence against civilians was up in the first half of 2021 as well.

With Mali having already suspended the rotation of UN military and police forces following June’s renewal of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), and the Malian armed forces credibly accused of involvement in the massacre of Malian civilians–along with Russian Wagner mercenaries—it is perhaps a better time than ever to more fully incorporate a “do no harm” strategy into MINUSMA’s overall mandate as well as its operations. 

While the protection of civilians makes a number of entries into the UN Security Council Resolution re-authorizing MINUSMA’s mandate, many of the references to civilians in the document exist as a reminder to Malian authorities that they bear primary responsibility for the protection of civilians, not the UN Mission, with the document’s general principles declaring that, “the second strategic priority of MINUSMA is to facilitate the implementation by Malian actors of a comprehensive politically-led strategy to protect civilians…” 

However there are elements of the mandate renewal that are relevant to the protection of civilians, including a priority to, “to strengthen community engagement and protection mechanisms, including interaction with civilians, community outreach, reconciliation, mediation, support to the resolution of local and intercommunal conflicts and public information,” to, “take mobile, flexible, robust and proactive steps to protect civilians, including through the set-up of a Mobile Task Force, prioritizing the deployment of ground and air assets, as available, in areas where civilians are most at risk,” and to, “mitigate the risk to civilians before, during and after any military or police operation, including by tracking, preventing, minimizing, and addressing civilian harm resulting from the mission’s operations.”

Clearly, with the atrocities alleged to have been committed by the Malian armed forces, more will have to be done if the Mission is to actively ensure that it does nothing to further exacerbate the already difficult situation on the ground. More specifically, MINSUMA can do more to help address the, “intensification of violence by extremist groups, community-based armed groups and militias,” which has been seen in Mali in recent years by standing ready to proactively respond to incidences of civilian harm when they do occur. For instance, the United Nations must do more in order to improve the efficacy of its casualty evacuation procedure for non-UN civilians in order to demonstrate the Mission’s commitment to preventing and addressing civilian harm incidents. 

Furthermore, the Mission could benefit from greater funding levels in order to meet the requirement that it increase its activities to protect civilians. Finally, the Mission must do more to build a staff that has, “the appropriate language skills to gather information, liaise with their colleagues, or build relations with their Malian counterparts,” as in Mali, “the sharing of information regarding potential threats and the coordination of responses have not always been performed in a formalized and consistent manner,” resulting in a situation where MINUSMA has been unable to, “accurately and preemptively identify threats to civilians.” Whether it is military service officers that are unable to fluently conduct briefings in English or police officials assigned to Regional Joint Operations Centers that are not bilingual, MINUSMA has had trouble filling required positions with individuals that speak the languages required to facilitate mission-critical information, which poses a risk that Mission officials will miss incidences of civilian abuse when they do occur. 

What’s more, with the deterioration in relations between the junta in Bamako and the French government—resulting in the ultimate withdrawal of French forces from the country—MINUSMA peacekeepers will likely become the last line of defense between an increasingly brutal Malian armed force and a population that has already seen enough human suffering. As part of a renewed focus on “do no harm”, MINUSMA decision makers should also undertake a re-evaluation of their overall presence in the country. While the Malian authorities recently re-authorized UN troop rotations, France has already withdrawn from the country and Germany recently announced the suspension, until further notice, of its participation in MINUSMA in response to Malian authorities refusal to grant flyover rights for the rotation of personnel on the ground.

With the hostility exhibited by the military regime in Bamako towards the international troop presence, as well as the continued violence perpetrated by security forces against civilians, it is perhaps time to weigh a complete suspension of the overall UN Mission until a more democratic transition occurs, as continued UN presence and support to Malian security services risks creating a situation where state security forces and extremists target civilians cooperating with UN peacekeepers. If the UN does decide that the Mission must remain to assist the civilian populace, it must ensure that it carries out the investigations into alleged violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law by the Malian security forces that were necessitated under MINUSMA’s June 2022 mandate renewal. Furthermore, the Mission must do more to investigate and prosecute all credible allegations of sexual exploitation and abuse committed by peacekeepers. 

MONUSCO 

Djugu, Ituri, DRC – MONUSCO peacekeepers remain vigilant to the threat of CODECO militiamen in Ituri province. On June 21, Nepalese peacekeepers came to reinforce the Congolese army after receiving reports of an attack by these militiamen on the FARDC camp in Loda. The two partner forces forced the militiamen to withdraw. Photo MONUSCO/Force/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/monusco/52186119259/
Djugu, Ituri, DRC – MONUSCO peacekeepers remain vigilant to the threat of CODECO militiamen in Ituri province. On June 21, Nepalese peacekeepers came to reinforce the Congolese army after receiving reports of an attack by these militiamen on the FARDC camp in Loda. The two partner forces forced the militiamen to withdraw. Photo MONUSCO/Force/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/monusco/52186119259/

Another African UN Mission that could benefit by more fully integrating a  “do no harm” approach into its programming is the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), which has been operating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 2010, but, in recent months, has seen a rising swell of opposition to its presence. 

As noted by Daniel Levine-Spound and Niku Jafarnia in a June 2022 piece for Just Security, recent fighting between the DRC-based March 23 Movement (M23) and the Congolese Military (FARDC) has had deadly consequences for civilians, with the UN recording nearly 1,000 civilian deaths and over 150,000 displaced. This is, depressingly, merely a part of a regular pattern of violence in the region, as, since the early 1990s, “Congolese and foreign armies, as well as non-state armed groups, have committed countless crimes under international law, including war crimes and crimes against humanity, and grave human rights abuses,” with too little done to, “hold human rights violators to account.” 

As such, Levine-Spound and Jafarnia write, “in a reigning climate of impunity, the pattern of attacks against civilians has continued,” as, “M23 soldiers committed scores of violations of international law, including summary executions, rapes, and forced recruitment of children,” during their operations. Furthermore, the Just Security article notes that in addition, “FARDC soldiers committed dozens of rapes, including against girls as young as 13. In the town Minova, for instance, Congolese military and police officials fleeing M23 raped over 1,000 individuals over a ten day rampage in 2012,” and that, “Congolese government forces remain regularly responsible for over 40 percent of human rights violations recorded in the DRC each month.” 

Despite these atrocities, MONUSCO has continued to train FARDC troops in combat tactics, which risks the UN being seen as complicit in any future attacks committed by those forces on Congolese civilians. Moreover, there is the overall issue that Congolese civilians often do not feel that UN peacekeepers are keeping them safe from armed groups; rather some feel that the peacekeepers have often been sources of instability and violence themselves. As such, you have a situation where Congolese civilians are out, actively protesting the presence of the UN Mission, with twenty-two year old protestor Clémence Zawadi telling a freelance journalist for The New Humanitarian that, “I demonstrated to express my disapproval at the actions of MONUSCO. It does things that would not be expected of it. [MONUSCO] came to secure us, but there is only insecurity. It has failed in its primary mission of protecting civilians.”

When it comes to MONUSCO’s implementation of a “do no harm” strategy, a central question that decision makers must ask themselves is whether the Mission has the right strategy for delivering peace and security to DRC. As noted by Robert U. Nagel, Katie Fin, and Julia Maenza in a May 2021 report for the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, MONUSCO’s approach to civilian protection—referred to as Protection by Projection and involving increased peacekeeper mobility and a proactive posture to allow for rapid deployments to high-risk areas in a crisis—is unsuitable for MONUSCO, as, “the mission does not have the resources to effectively respond, especially due to a lack of air assets and environmental factors that impact mobility depending on the seasons.” Essentially, this means that, “in many cases deployments are delayed, which means that the mission in many cases responds to incidents rather than preventing them.” 

Furthermore, the Georgetown Institute authors also note that MONUSCO’s strategy fails to take into account women’s unique protection needs. As a result, their report finds that, “MONUSCO generally fails to protect civilians and respond quickly to alerts; peacekeepers sexually abuse and/or exploit local women, boys, and girls; and peacekeepers are distant from and disrespectful towards local civilians,” with MONUSCO mandates unreflective of conditions on the ground. 

As such, if MONUSCO decision makers want to better incorporate a “do no harm” philosophy into their operations, the Mission Leadership Team must deal with language and culture barriers preventing engagement with local communities; a lack of trust from locals, which results in limited information sharing and sometimes even collusion against the mission; and a lack of within-mission support and follow-up, which results in requests from the local population that go unfulfilled, decreasing the local populations’ trust in the Mission. 

Moreover, as argued by CIVIC’s Daniel Levine-Spound and Samuli Harju in a December 2020 blog post, when ultimately drawing down the mission in DRC, the UN must be careful to construct a timeline for withdrawal that keeps MONUSCO in the most conflict-affected provinces until the latest possible moment. The mission also can do more to strengthen its early warning system, mainstream the HRDDP amongst all MOUNSCO actors on the UN Country Team, plan the transition in coordination with local civil society actors, and evaluate the performance of the Force Intervention Brigade, which—as Adam Day of the United Nations University has written previously–has not achieved its goals and which has allowed the rest of MOUNSCO’s POC efforts to atrophy. 

Logo, Ituri, DRC: After receiving alerts on movements of militiamem around the village of Logo in Djugu territory, MONUSCO quickly dispatched a combat patrol to the area. Together with FARDC soldiers, the Bangladeshi peacekeepers succeeded in dislodging these militiamen from the area, thus preventing further atrocities against civilians. The patrol also provided first aid to the injured before evacuating them to Drodro hospital. Photo MONUSCO/Force/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/monusco/52050077294/
Logo, Ituri, DRC: After receiving alerts on movements of militiamem around the village of Logo in Djugu territory, MONUSCO quickly dispatched a combat patrol to the area. Together with FARDC soldiers, the Bangladeshi peacekeepers succeeded in dislodging these militiamen from the area, thus preventing further atrocities against civilians. The patrol also provided first aid to the injured before evacuating them to Drodro hospital. Photo MONUSCO/Force/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/monusco/52050077294/

Final Thoughts

The protection of civilians should be the sine qua non for all UN peacekeeping operations, as violence committed against civilians is not only morally reprehensible, but counterproductive for building trust between the state and local communities, as well. However, the only way that the protection of civilians can be fully incorporated into all UN peacekeeping missions is to do so from the Mission Leadership Team on down, designing the entire intervention with a “do no harm” strategy at the heart of all programmatic activities. Whether it is providing training to unaccountable partner-country troops or failing to investigate and prosecute incidents of civilian harm by blue helmets, UN missions continually create self-inflicted wounds by their failure to understand how all of their actions—and lack thereof—impact local civilian populations. 

Too often, it seems, the civilian population of countries receiving UN peacekeeping assistance are treated as afterthoughts, with the wills and whims of the host-nation seemingly of overriding import to decision makers back in New York. However, while the protection of civilians has received a great deal more attention by UN officials in recent years—as seen in the mandate renewals of MINUSMA and UNMISS—more still needs to be done to systematically incorporate “do no harm” into all UN activities abroad. 

Therefore, moving forward, all UN peacekeeping operations should carry with them a requirement for planners to consider how each and every action taken can have unintended impacts on the local civilian population. From more stringent monitoring of partner-country military units trained by UN peacekeepers, to the monitoring of how facilities built by UN personnel are used over the long-term, decision makers must understand that every action in conflict-affected areas carries with it secondary and tertiary consequences, which may not be immediately foreseeable. By mainstreaming the UN’s Human Rights Due Diligence Policy as a tool to reduce and prevent risk, UN missions will also better be able to protect civilians that are supposed to be under their care. Until, and unless, they do so, not only will UN peacekeeping missions not be embracing a “do no harm” approach, they risk exacerbating already dire situations that exist in Africa and throughout the rest of the world.

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A Time for Specialization?: Overcoming European Failures in Defense Collaboration

August 12, 2022

As Ian Bond and Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform have recently written, “Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February has established a new political and military reality in Europe. The threat of repeated Russian military action is now more severe, and the EU and NATO will have to reorient themselves towards deterring further aggression, while overcoming old rivalries and mutual suspicions.” Furthermore, they note that it would be a mistake for EU countries to believe that the U.S. will continue to step up and bear the majority of costs, as Europeans, “will have to do more, acting nationally, in small groups and through the EU and NATO.” Ultimately, Bond and Scazzieri conclude that Putin’s war has demonstrated how, “Europe can no longer afford to treat its own security as a matter of little consequence.” 

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has further demonstrated to Western nations that, “Russia has expansionist ambitions that stretch across much of eastern Europe,” and that, “Putin’s ambitions to reconquer significant parts of the Russian empire means that Russia will continue to pose a threat to European security so long as it is ruled by him, or by someone else with the same aggressive imperialist mindset.” As Bond and Scazzieri write in “The EU, NATO and European security in a time of war,” despite a renewed focus on Russia, “other threats to European security have not disappeared,” and with trouble brewing in the Western Balkans, the “near uninterrupted expansion in militant Islamist violence” taking place in the Sahel, and growing competition with China in its own neighborhood, the European Union will, in the coming years, need to take on a greater role, “in security and defense, particularly in terms of capability development.” 

However, while a renewed focus on European security has seen EU members Finland and Sweden apply for NATO membership, Germany undergo a historic geopolitical shift, and many European capitals decide to finally raise their ambitions for their levels of defense spending, none of it changes the fact that, as Sebastian Clapp of the European Parliamentary Research Services wrote in May of this year, that, “while defence budgets have increased in real terms since 2018/2019 (prior to that, they had not even reached pre2008 financial crisis levels), this follows years of chronic under-investment in defence in the majority of Member States.” Furthermore, Clapp notes that in the interim, “strategic competitors such as Russia and China have increased their defence budgets by almost 300% and nearly 600% respectively over the last decade, compared to an approximate 20% increase collectively by EU Member States in the same period.”

As such, back on March 11, at an informal meeting of the Heads of State or Government, the EU issued its “Versailles Declaration” which, responding to Russia’s hostilities in Ukraine, called for bolstering EU defense capabilities, reducing its energy dependence on Russia, and building a more robust economic base. While reducing European energy dependence on Russia and building a more robust economic base are both of long-term import to the European Union and its member states, a more tricky problem will be bolstering the EU’s defensive capabilities while still retaining the funds to complete Europe’s green transition and combating the disastrous economic effects of the war. 

As such, when considering how it can bolster its defenses, the European Union must consider more “out of the box” thinking that allows member states to increase their defensive capabilities while doing so at a reasonable cost. Therefore, one of the strategies that EU member states must consider is defense specialization; and one of the main tools that it should use to achieve that strategy is through multinational defense cooperation. Moreover, they must do so because the past decade-and-a-half worth of collaborative efforts have, so far, failed to yield the desired results. 

A Past Failure to Collaborate

In general, the conversation surrounding specialization in European defense is primarily about overcoming a legacy of confusing terminology as well as a historic hesitancy to truly rely on other countries for key parts of national defense. However, one merely has to look at the alternative to discover why EU nations have little choice but to embrace specialization or be unable to meet the challenge posed by a revanchist Russia under Vladimir Putin. 

As was pointed out in the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) November 2021 report, “Europe’s High-End Military Challenges The Future of European Capabilities and Missions,” by Seth G. Jones, Rachel Ellehuus, and Colin Wall, “over the last decade, the state of allied military capabilities has improved in both qualitative and quantitative terms, including by meeting NATO Capability Targets, filling key capability shortfalls, and reducing dependence on the United States. Yet, overall, the picture is mixed, with some allies stepping up more than others and some targets still not met.” Moreover, the readiness picture becomes even more muddled when one considers that, “even when European NATO allies possess the required number of forces, they are often challenged by the lack of readiness in these large-scale combat formations,” with many units, “…hollowed out, inadequately trained, not yet modernized, or lack[ing] the necessary enablers to execute high end operations.” 

Ultimately, Jones, Ellehuus, and Wall conclude that, “for the most demanding scenario, namely large-scale combat against an adversary such as Russia, the picture is challenging even with U.S. involvement due to the close, contested nature of the operating environment. To this end, it will be important for European allies to increase their readiness and field capabilities essential to improving situational awareness, force protection, and neutralization of enemy defense.” For the CSIS authors, while EU nations may have the capability to conduct crisis response and security cooperation missions in Europe and the surrounding neighborhood, when it comes to large-scale combat—especially against Russia—European militaries may very well not be up to the task, at least as currently constructed. 

If Europeans are going to be realistic about their prospects of bridging these capability gaps, and meeting the challenge posed by Russia, decision makers are going to have to be honest about not only their existing equipment shortfalls, but about their overall commitment to higher levels of defense spending. As currently constituted, European defense spending is not even meeting the goals that member states had previously committed to. 

As has been remarked on by Daniel Fiott of the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in a June 2022 piece for Intereconomics, while, “the European Defence Agency estimates that EU members invested €198 billion in defence in 2020,” it was, “only after they collectively cut spending from 2008 to 2014 by €24 billion in the wake of the 2007 financial crash.” Furthermore, Fiott notes, even with states like Germany voicing a commitment to increase its level of defense investment, “some of the investment will be needed to cover essential capability gaps,” so, “in this respect, we should not expect these national funds to be exclusively invested in European collaborative solutions.” 

However, as noted by Dick Zandee in a 2020 report, “The CSDP in 2020: The EU’s legacy and ambition in security and defence,” while, “the further Europeanisation of development and procurement of military equipment will certainly contribute to the rationalisation and consolidation of industrial capacities and to improving military interoperability and standardisation,” if, “Europe opts for a business-as-usual approach – long bureaucratic processes for the harmonisation of requirements; carving up technological research, industrial development and production shares based on the principle of juste retour; adding national ‘nice to haves’ to multinationally agreed ‘needs to have’ – then we can expect a repetition of the very expensive and slowly progressing collaborative armament projects of the past.”

Moreover, Zandee points out that while the EU’s European Defence Fund carries a requirement that at least three EU member states and three different companies participate in a project in order to receive EU funding, the selection of collaborative programs has been hindered by the European Commission, which, “in its communications about the EDF is mainly underlining the purpose of the EDF in strengthening the [EU’s Defence Technological and Industrial Base] rather than selecting programmes based on the capability priorities stemming from the [Capability Development Program] and the [Strategic Context Cases].” 

As a result, over the last two decades, there has been an increasing awareness that the EU has had major capability shortfalls while, “the practice of capability development has only partially followed its theory,” as “defence bureaucracies did not follow up on what their political masters had decided in the past.” For instance, “in 2005 the first EU High Representative and Head of the EDA, Javier Solana, launched a campaign for a serious increase in collaborative defence [research and technology] spending with the motto ‘to spend more, to spend better and to spend more together.” And while he initially obtained European Council support for his plan, ultimately, “Solana’s initiative received no serious follow-up from the R&T experts in capitals.” As such, when the 2008 financial crisis hit, “collaborative  European Defence R&T spending dropped from its peak of 16.6% (in 2008) to 8% (in 2017) – well below the benchmark of 20% agreed by ministers of defence in 2007.”

Collaborative EU Defense Spending/Source: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/FS_22_3145
Collaborative EU Defense Spending/Source: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/FS_22_3145

Further illustrating Europe’s collective inability to spend collaboratively on defense, in November 2007, the European Defence Agency’s (EDA) Ministerial Steering Board agreed to the creation of four voluntary benchmarks for defense investment, including a commitment by member states to try to spend 35% of total equipment spending on collaborative equipment procurement. However, a 2021 report by the EDA, “Defence Data 2019-2020: Key findings and analysis,” showed that, despite this decade-long commitment, EU member states, “fall collectively short of achieving the benchmark of spending 35% of their total defence equipment procurement in cooperation with other EU [member states], which is also a commitment under PESCO.” Furthermore, the report notes that while, in 2020, EU member states only, “conducted 11% of their total equipment procurement in a European framework,” the more egregious failure is the fact that, “since 2016, the share allocated to European collaborative equipment procurement has been decreasing continuously, reaching a new lowest level in 2020.” 

European Collaborative Defense Equipment Procurement Expenditure (Constant 2020 Prices)/Source: https://eda.europa.eu/docs/default-source/brochures/eda---defence-data-report-2019-2020.pdf#page=11
European Collaborative Defense Equipment Procurement Expenditure (Constant 2020 Prices)/Source: https://eda.europa.eu/docs/default-source/brochures/eda—defence-data-report-2019-2020.pdf#page=11

Ultimately, European states have shown that they are either unwilling or unable to meet collaborative spending goals, and, as a result, European capability development has lagged behind where it needs to be to meet the challenge posed by Russia. As the authors EDA’s 2021 Defence Data report remark, “the defragmentation of the European defence capability landscape can only be achieved through a parallel increase in European cooperation, helping [member states] to procure their military equipment more efficiently.”

Therefore, with the historic reluctance shown by many EU member states in actually meeting their professed financial commitments to collaborative defense projects, something must change moving forward. Taking these factors into consideration, EU member states must more strongly consider concentrating on their existing areas of expertise and relying more closely on fellow member states for key elements of their collective defense if they want to keep spending levels down and readiness levels high.

European Collaborative Defense Equipment Procurement As % of Total Defence Equip. Procurement/Source: https://eda.europa.eu/docs/default-source/brochures/eda---defence-data-report-2019-2020.pdf#page=4
European Collaborative Defense Equipment Procurement As % of Total Defence Equip. Procurement/Source: https://eda.europa.eu/docs/default-source/brochures/eda—defence-data-report-2019-2020.pdf#page=4

To Specialize or Not?

As Dick Zandee and Adája Stoetman of Clingendael – the Netherlands Institute of International Relations (Clingendael) write in their July 2022 report, “Specialising in European defence: To choose or not to choose?”, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made it clear to both NATO and the EU that their European member states must do more to bolster their defensive capabilities. However, recognizing that, “the rising costs of armaments, in particular high-technology weapon systems,” creates a system of “haves” and “non-haves” in Europe, the authors propose that, “multinational defence cooperation is the tool to prevent,” countries from seeking national solutions to European capability shortfalls and, as such, “defence specialisation should become an important element in strengthening European military capabilities.”

However, the conventional wisdom regarding European defense institutions typically is similar to that offered by former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who once stated that there were European nations jeopardizing the NATO alliance due to their aversion to, “shar[ing] the risks and costs” of defense investments. Despite this, as was argued by Kaija E. Schilde, Stephanie B. Anderson and Andrew D. Garner in their 2019 paper, “A more martial Europe? Public opinion, permissive consensus, and EU defence policy,” public opinion polling data in Europe has shown high levels of support for both national as well as European defense institutions, and that, “pooling national sovereignty over defence is more popular over time than any other EU-level policy.” In that light, it is worth considering what Zandee and Stoetman mean when they refer to defense specialization, what the barriers might be, and what potential benefits it might bring to European defense. 

In the EU’s 2022 Strategic Compass, the report remarks that, “a number of Member States have embarked on the development of key strategic capability projects, such as next generation aircraft systems, a Eurodrone, a new class of a European naval vessel and a main ground combat system,” all of which will make tangible impacts on European security and defense. However, in that same section, the report also notes that, “in addition to investing in future capabilities and innovation, we need to make better use of collaborative capability development and pooling endeavours, including by exploring tasks of specialisation between Member States,” building on successes such as the European Multinational Multi-Role Tanker and Transport Fleet

The Clingendael authors note that the insertion of the term specialization into the Strategic Compass was at the request of the Netherlands, based on the goals outlined in its Defense Vision 2035 from October of 2020, which states that, “each country has a natural leaning towards certain capabilities and type of deployment,” and that, “[the Netherlands] should make better use of that added value in order to jointly achieve more effects and raise the quality of our operations.” Essentially, by specializing in capability areas of strength—such as submarines or cyber defense—and abandoning efforts in areas of weakness in favor of pooled endeavors and greater reliance on partner nations, EU member states will be able to increase overall EU capabilities for deterrence and defense, while still maintaining reasonable individual defense spending levels. 

As Zandee and Stoetman explain, such specialization is often associated with a surrender of national sovereignty or an unacceptable level of dependency on other nations, which historically have prevented more countries from pursuing this path. Furthermore, as was noted in a 2020 report for the European Union Institute for Security Studies, despite the fact that the EU and its member states have invested in a range of policy mechanisms designed to pull governments closer together on defense, “the reality today is that the ‘alphabet soup’ of EU security and defence – CSDP, PESCO, EDF, CARD, CDP, MPCC, NIPs, EPF, etc. – has not yet led to any tangible shift in the Union’s capability base or readiness for deployment.” 

Therefore, what Zandee and Stoetman propose is that EU member states, instead of primarily focusing on bolstering the bureaucratic apparatus needed to support closer cooperation on defense, that states instead cooperate by focusing on their own “niche or specialized capabilities,” and relying on partners for those capabilities in which it does not excel. In doing so, such specialization, “can strengthen the collective capabilities of European countries by strengthening capabilities across the whole spectrum, contribute to better interoperability, and enhance mutual trust and confidence.”

While states may point to a number of risks inherent in specialization, which include diminished defense industrial capacities—and a resultant loss of jobs at the national level—and the risk that partners will not provide access to their capabilities in times of need, the benefits are easy to see, in that specialization enables countries to concentrate on areas in which they already possess a robust industrial base and expertise, allowing those states to make more efficient use of existing resources. Furthermore, specialization allows smaller states access to capabilities that they would otherwise be unable to afford. 

For the Clingendael report, the authors provide a number of different ways that EU members can go about the process of specialization, first noting that as a result of historic or geographic factors, many countries possess certain military capabilities that other states lack. For instance, landlocked nations typically have little to no naval presence, while they generally invest more in their land and air forces. In terms of the Netherlands, it is their ocean-going submarines that are unique, providing the country with the ability to group with other nations that focus on frigates or destroyers in order to enhance the overall European defense capability base, or to group with other submarine-having countries to cooperate on maintenance and support efforts.

Specialization can also entail the pooling and sharing of capabilities wherein countries that do not possess a certain capability are given the opportunity to still make use of that capability through a shared pool of resources. Examples of such pooling and sharing formats include the Multi-Role Transport and Tanker fleet, listed above. Other elements include “smart defense”, as developed by NATO, which, “encourages members to work with others wherever possible; to set the right priorities at home and together in Brussels; and to encourage nations, especially the smaller nations, to specialize in what they do best.” The Clingendael authors argue that the essential difference between pooling and sharing, smart defense, and specialization is that while the first two entail some degree of reliance on partner nations, it is not as great as with full-on specialization. 

Another phrase oft-synonymous with specialization is collective tasks, such as the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission, which the authors call a type of “organised non-specialisation” as the Baltic states decide not to have a robust fighter capability “by design” but instead receive that capability from other nations, though without offering their own areas of expertise in exchange. Finally, the authors discuss the concept of defense integration, such as the naval cooperation between Belgium and the Netherlands, wherein one side (the Netherlands) provides education, training, and maintenance facilities for both countries’ M-class frigates and the other (Belgium) provides the same for the two countries’ minehunting vessels. 

Based on these existing models, the authors propose a framework for European defense specialization that leverages three specific forms of specialization: structured European capability groups; specialization in support functions; and traditional specialization. In terms of structured European capability groups, the authors look at existing multinational formations such as the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, which emerged out of the 2014 NATO Wales Summit.

Improving European Specialization in Defense

The 2014 Wales Summit Declaration was where Allies agreed to the NATO Framework Nations Concept whereby countries agreed to develop framework nations or smaller groupings of countries that would commit, “to working systematically together, deepening and intensifying their cooperation in the long term, to create, in various configurations, a number of multinational projects to address Alliance priority areas across a broad spectrum of capabilities.” However, for the Clingendael authors, the result of these groupings has been, “a patchwork of multinational formats, which lacks structure and cohesion,” raising the question of what can be done to arrive at a scenario wherein European countries organize their capabilities in a more coordinated manner. To that end, the authors propose that the geographic location of member states be taken into account when formulating such groupings; that such capability groups be considered more for collective defense than crisis management operations; and that the possession of already existing niche capabilities should be considered when proposing further specialization. 

In that way, the authors propose that European nations follow a largely geography-based model for structuring future European capability groups, with the continent grouped into Northern Europe; Eastern Europe; Central Europe; and South-Eastern Europe, with other groupings created based on the needs and specific capabilities of contributing EU member states. For instance, the authors note how the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force is already focused on Northern Europe in terms of its participating members and its exercises; therefore, it could be further developed into a capability group for Northern Europe and the Arctic, with Norway contributing its surface fleet and air-defense capabilities, and the UK and Netherlands providing first responder capabilities—primarily with those countries’ marines corps forces—to allies Finland and Sweden in the event of a potential Russian invasion of their territory. 

In addition to such regional groupings, the authors also state that European nations can group together to work on areas of specific interest both inside and outside of Europe. For instance, they propose the formation of a Special Forces group, whereby contributing countries provide either commandos or specific enablers—such as transport aircraft, helicopters, and submarines—with the Composite Special Forces Command of Denmark and the Benelux countries providing a template for other European nations to join together their special forces capabilities with other participating countries. Furthermore, such functional groupings could be coupled together with regional capability groups depending on the goal. For instance, countries grouped together for logistical support will need to interface with regional capability groupings, such as the Joint Expeditionary Force, in order to ensure that those regional groupings are able to supply their troops in the event of a future conflict.

Indeed, support functions are another overarching area in which the Clingendael authors propose that European nations cooperate in order to achieve greater overall capabilities in defense, while still keeping costs in check. To that end, the authors propose binational or multinational specialization in education and training—which presupposes that countries operate the same equipment and that military operators speak the same language—and point to the Belgian-Dutch joint work on frigate and minehunter maintenance, with France an ideal future candidate to join the two neighbors in such an undertaking. Furthermore, in future endeavors, such as with the European Patrol Corvette project between Italy, France, Greece, and Spain, the authors propose that specialization in support functions should be a key part of planning in order to prevent duplication of those functions by the participants. Furthermore the German-French-Spanish Future Air Combat System (FCAS) can similarly benefit from the participating members specializing in support functions before the first plane ever rolls off an assembly line. 

In terms of traditional specialization, which the report defines as when, “countries completely [abandon] a capability while specialising in another, based on a mutual arrangement with at least one other country,” the authors state that there are almost no examples of it happening, as while many states have given up capabilities unilaterally, they have often done so without coordination with others. The most radical example of traditional specialization would be a country with a limited coast abandoning its navy in order to fully specialize in land and air forces. 

However, such overarching models of specialization do not tend to come to fruition, as they would render the state abandoning its capabilities unacceptably reliant on partners in the event of a future conflict. Instead, the authors argue that traditional specialization tends to be found at the level of specific service components such as artillery, air mobile forces, aircraft carriers, submarines, fighter aircraft, or space assets. To that end, the authors propose that the NATO Defense Planning Process (NDPP) and the EU’s Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD) be restructured so that member states can better work together, making better use of countries’ preexisting specializations in order to expand the capacity for collective defense of the EU and NATO.

In that light, the authors propose a number of specialization options for countries that wish to focus on a given capability area. These include a focus on long-range missile systems versus the short range firepower of tanks and artillery; a focus on heavy-lift helicopters compared to a ground-based vehicle transport fleet; and blue-water naval assets such as carriers and frigates versus brown water assets such as patrol boats and diesel-electric submarines. By achieving traditional specialization in these individual service components, countries can acquire the hardware that they know how to use well, leaving types of equipment outside their traditional area of competence to other nations. 

More specifically, in terms of the Netherlands, the authors outline a number of different specialization options that the country could pursue. For example, they propose that, in terms of structured capability groups, that the Netherlands engage with other JEF participants to explore pathways to strengthen the force by making it, “even more effectively structured, equipped, trained and adapted to the Northern European theatre as a structured European capability group for operations in the context of collective defence,” with the, “Dutch Marine Corps contribution”, needing to be strengthened based on measures announced in the Dutch Defence White Paper 2022.

When it comes to specializing in support functions, the Clingendael authors propose that as both Germany and the Netherlands already employ the German-Dutch Boxer Armoured Transport Vehicle, there is room for the two sides to come to a specialization in support functions, with Germany taking responsibility for repair and maintenance of the Boxer and the Netherlands committing to the support of the Chinook heavy-lift helicopters that Germany has recently committed to purchase, and which the Netherlands already operates

Finally, in terms of traditional specialization at the level of individual service components, the authors propose that the Netherlands coordinate its future specialization with Belgium, so that if Belgium were to consider acquisition of land-based missile defense–for example for the defense of the Port of Antwerp against long-range precision-guided munitions—then Dutch Patriot missile batteries could be first shared between the two countries, and then later handed over to Belgium as Belgium specializes in protecting the harbors of both countries. In return, the Netherlands’ own sea-based missile defense systems could be used to protect further-flung Belgian interests, permitting Brussels to spend less on naval frigates equipped with exoatmospheric interceptors

Concluding Thoughts

Russia’s war in Ukraine has had a profound impact on the European security landscape, upending decades of relative peace between Europe and Russia. Furthermore, the Russian invasion did not occur in a vacuum and was—if not caused by the poor overall state of European defensive capabilities—at least made more attractive by the fact that European nations seemingly have taken in a three decade-long, post-Cold War, peace dividend while Russia’s military spending increased markedly over the last decade or more. While some European nations, such as Germany, seem to be awakening from their long slumber, years of neglect towards European defensive capabilities has left EU member states in a precarious position for the coming decade. 

Because of those past failures, merely committing to meet the spending targets outlined earlier this century will not be enough for European states to realize the types and quantities of equipment needed to deter and defend against an aggressive and revanchist Russia. Instead, what is required is a more radical commitment by states to embrace their existing areas of expertise, while relying on partners to provide the capabilities that they lack. 

To overcome this, EU member states will have to: provide more resources to existing structured European capability groups like the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force and create new regional and task-specific groupings; follow the Belgian-Dutch BeNeSam model by having countries specialize in the support of specific equipment and capabilities; and actively work to specialize in terms of individual weapons system by, for example, abandoning pursuit of sea-based missile defense in favor of shorter-range systems.

However, states will also have to reckon with the fact that in doing so, they will be surrendering at least some part of their national sovereignty in terms of defense. While such an abandonment of sovereignty will likely encounter stern political opposition in many states, if Europe truly wants to fulfill its pursuit of “European strategic autonomy,” individual EU member states must accept the fact that they cannot do it all themselves. Furthermore, they must also understand how their past efforts to collaborate have not done enough to realize the capabilities Europe needs for defense against a peer-competitor. Therefore, it is time for European states to choose to embrace defense specialization. If they do not, and Europe is left vulnerable to coercion or attack from Russia in the future, European Union member states will have no one to blame but themselves.

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For They Have Sown the Wind: Cause, Consequence, and the Historical Motivations of the Russian War in Ukraine

August 5, 2022

Back on June 23, John Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, gave a speech at the European Union Institute, wherein he offered up an explanation for the war in Ukraine that repudiated Western governments supposed rationales for entering the war, placing the majority of the blame for the current catastrophe at the feet of the United States, the European Union, and the enlargement of the NATO Alliance. Mearsheimer’s contentions should not be surprising, as he has consistently stuck with the argument that Western military encroachment has been responsible for Russian aggression towards Ukraine since at least the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea. 

However, while Mearsheimer is clearly one of the foremost thinkers in international relations, his analysis is fundamentally faulty in both its examination of the historical record, as well as in his estimation that the war would end if the West simply agreed to abandon its partners in Kyiv. Furthermore, Mearsheimer is not the only “realist” foreign policy thinker who believes that Western military actions have largely been responsible for the outbreak of violence in Ukraine, with Mearsheimer’s frequent collaborator Stephen Walt also arguing that the U.S. largely provoked this year’s Russian aggression. 

Therefore, it is worth taking some time to analyze Mearsheimer’s argument, as well as already existing rebuttals, to see exactly where he veers off course. To begin, Mearsheimer presents two essential arguments: that the U.S. is the actor that is principally responsible for the current crisis in Ukraine, and that the Biden administration has reacted to the war by doubling down on efforts to weaken Russia. However, it is not only difficult to argue that the U.S. or Western organizations are responsible for the war, it is hard to say that the Biden administration has specifically committed to “greatly weaken Russian power”. Mearsheimer argues that this is not to absolve the Kremlin of all responsibility for the war, merely to place the bulk of the blame on the West for creating a “security dilemma” for Russia, forcing its hand on Crimea, Donbas, and then, ultimately, all-out war with Kyiv. 

Mearsheimer rejects Western arguments that Putin is motivated by “the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, the feeling that the collapse of the Soviet Union, “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” or that, “modern Ukraine was entirely and fully created by Russia, more specifically the Bolshevik, communist Russia,” instead positing that Putin has long recognized the country as independent, pointing to the end of the Russian leaders July 2021 address, where he stated that, “Russia has never been and will never be ‘anti-Ukraine’. And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide”. 

Mearsheimer says that those submitting that Putin was intent on conquering Ukraine and incorporating the country into Russia must first prove that Putin thought such a move desirable; feasible; and that he ultimately intended to pursue such a goal. As such, he argues that there is little evidence in the public record that would indicate that Putin was contemplating putting an end to the independence of Ukraine when he initiated his campaign in February. Further, Mearsheimer argues that Putin displayed little evidence that he thought that conquering all of Ukraine was feasible, pointing to Putin’s speech to the Russian people following the initiation of hostilities, that, “it is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force.” 

Finally, Mearsheimer states that it can be clearly seen that Putin never intended to fully pursue a goal of conquering and incorporating large segments of Ukraine by virtue of the Russian military’s conduct in the early days of the war. Here, Mearsheimer contends that as Russia did not attempt a classic blitzkrieg strategy, aimed at overrunning the entirety of the country with armor and tactical air support, then it means that Russia always intended to pursue more limited aims in Ukraine. Moreover, he argues that there is no evidence that Russia was preparing a puppet government to replace the Zelenskyy administration, demonstrating again Russia’s more limited goals in the invasion. Additionally, Mearsheimer contends that, as Putin is a keen student of Russian—and particularly Soviet—history, he would understand as well as anyone that occupying large countries is a recipe for unceasing trouble and resistance to occupation. Finally, the author contends that it was only when the Maidan Revolution broke out in February 2014 that the U.S. subsequently began describing Putin as dangerous, allowing the West to place all the blame for the situation in the country on the Russian leader. 

Mearsheimer maintains that the true root of the crisis has three prongs, which are: Western efforts to integrate Ukraine into the European Union; attempts to turn Ukraine into a pro-Western liberal democracy; and attempts to incorporate the country into the NATO Alliance. Mearsheimer ultimately traces the trouble between the West and Russia back to the Bucharest summit in April of 2008, when NATO members welcomed, “Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO,” and, “agreed…that these countries will become members of NATO.” Mearsheimer contends that the West should have fully understood from the outset that such a move was a clear red-line for Moscow, with U.S. Ambassador to Russia William Burns writing in a memo to then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that, “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.”

Despite this, Mearsheimer argues that the West, instead of recognizing Russian red-lines, plowed ahead with efforts to expand the NATO alliance, with the George W. Bush administration pressuring France and Germany to withdraw their objections to Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO accession path. Here, Mearsheimer claims that this American heedlessness led directly to the 2008 Russo-Georgian War; another inadvertent result of the West’s pursuit of integration with Russia’s former-Soviet partners. 

Notwithstanding these facts, the author contends, the West learned no lessons, and instead recklessly pursued further integration efforts with Ukraine, with NATO and the U.S. conducting the training of the Ukrainian military, training tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops since 2014. Furthermore, Mearsheimer notes how in 2017, the Trump administration decided to provide Kyiv with lethal defensive arms, creating a permission structure for other NATO nations to do the same. Furthermore, Mearsheimer also points to Ukrainian participation in NATO exercises, with the massive Operation Sea Breeze in the Black Sea including the Ukrainian navy as well as navies from thirty-one other countries. Ultimately, all of these Western-Ukrainian partnerships undoubtedly caused consternation in Moscow. 

In addition to military cooperation, Mearsheimer’s speech also contends that, in 2021, Western rhetoric surrounding Ukraine’s potential integration into NATO changed, as Zelenskyy began to embrace the idea of NATO accession and adopt a more hardline approach towards Russia. This renewed commitment to Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration led NATO to issue, in June of 2021, a communiqué following its annual Brussels summit reiterating the 2008 Bucharest declaration that Ukraine will have a path towards NATO accession. In addition, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba proceeded to sign the U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership in November of that year, further underscoring Ukraine’s commitment to the reforms required for its full integration into Western institutions. 

As such, Mearsheimer contends that the West should not be surprised by Russian hostility towards these moves, as Moscow sent letters to both the Biden administration and NATO demanding written guarantees that Ukraine would not join the alliance; that no offensive weapons be placed on or near Russia’s borders; and that NATO troops and equipment moved into Eastern Europe since the 1997 NATO expansion be removed. At the time, Putin argued that, “what [NATO is] doing, or trying or planning to do in Ukraine, is not happening thousands of kilometers away from our national border. It is on the doorstep of our house. They must understand that we simply have nowhere further to retreat to.” 

For Mearsheimer, despite all of these public indications and statements from Moscow that Western integration of Ukraine is clearly an unacceptable course of events, the U.S. and its Western partners plowed ahead, oblivious to the imminent dangers inherent in their course of action. He therefore argues that the West must face the predictable consequences of its actions in Ukraine and work to both prevent nuclear escalation as well as find a way out of the entire mess. For Mearsheimer, the key to such a settlement is rendering Ukraine a neutral state after the war, ending its prospects of further NATO and EU integration. However, he blames both radical nationalists inside the country as well as the Biden administration—which he argues has committed to the decisive defeat of Russia in Ukraine—for the inability to dial down temperatures and discuss potential diplomatic solutions to the war. Finally, he states that there is little to suggest that President Zelenskyy will accept any deal that allows Russia to keep any Ukrainian territory, which would be a clear dealbreaker for Moscow. 

Mearsheimer proceeds to outline all the ways that the war is a catastrophe for Ukraine and the globe, from destroyed Ukrainian critical infrastructure; to massive internal and external displacement; and a growing global food and energy crisis. Furthermore, with a strong Western rhetorical commitment to defeating Russia—and a similar commitment to victory posited to exist in Moscow and Kyiv—a settlement between the sides that is acceptable to all is remarkably unlikely with Ukraine and Russia viewing defeat as an existential threat to their way of life. In that light, Mearsheimer argues, there is a very real danger of escalation, even to the use of nuclear weapons, as Moscow will not sit idly by as the U.S., “wants to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” as was stated to reporters by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin back in late April. With both sides unable to claim a victory without the others’ defeat, Mearsheimer contends, it leads to a situation where Russia could decide to use nuclear weapons, as was argued by U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines back in May. 

In the end, Mearsheimer submits that the 2008 Bucharest summit declaration’s commitment to draw Ukraine and Georgia into the Western orbit was ultimately destined to result in conflict with a Russian leadership which views NATO encroachment as anathema. He argues that while the Bush administration was the architect of the 2008 decision to commit to Georgia and Ukraine, that it was decisions by the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations that have exacerbated that initial, faulty—in Mearsheimer’s estimation—choice. He contends that had the West simply not pursued NATO expansion into Ukraine, that it is likely Russia would have undertaken none of its military incursions against its neighbor, and that Crimea would still be a part of Ukraine. Ultimately, he states that history will judge the West harshly for its foolhardy pursuit of Ukrainian integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, as that is the ultimate factor resulting in the death and destruction currently taking place.

What’s Missing from Mearsheimer’s Analysis

Mearsheimer’s argument is compelling; and, if taken as submitted, would seem to offer a succinct and logical explanation for the events that have played out over the last eight years. Unfortunately, however, his argument ultimately does not address the full range of facts surrounding Russian rhetoric and decisions over the past two decades. As Joe Cirincione of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote in a July 29 article for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the most important gaps in Mearsheimer’s analysis are, “the security imperatives of Russia’s neighbors, the increasing authoritarianism of the Russian state and the true horror of Russia’s brutal war and occupation.” Cirincione argues that, “by not adequately weighing these factors, Mearsheimer can explain Putin’s invasion of a peaceful, independent nation as a predictable reaction to Western provocations.” As such, it is worth analyzing Cirincione’s arguments in greater detail.

To begin—while acknowledging that NATO enlargement was problematic and that the U.S. did not do well to take Russian security concerns into account—Cirincione states that NATO policy was not driven by some obsession with making Ukraine a bulwark against Russia, but rather a simple extension of bureaucratic inertia and the pursuit of profitable defense contracts for Western defense companies. Furthermore, he notes that even if NATO’s enlargement was in response to Russia, it was a response to the historical actions of the Soviet Union, rather than the immediate, post-Cold War Russia that was struggling to hold its economy together—specifically as former-Soviet states of the Visegrád group had good historical reason to fear their larger, more powerful neighbor and pursue NATO accession. As such, Eastern Europe’s desire for NATO integration was less about Western domination of Eastern Europe than about what the publics in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland desired for their future political and economic orientation. 

Cirincione also disputes Mearsheimer’s assertion that Putin has only pursued limited aims in Ukraine, noting that Russian efforts failed not because of some careful calibration by Moscow but the heroic resistance of Ukrainian soldiers. Cirincione backs up his argument with a statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said in late July that Moscow is, “determined to help the people of eastern Ukraine to liberate themselves from the burden of this absolutely unacceptable regime,” stating that, “[Russia] will certainly help the Ukrainian people to get rid of the regime, which is absolutely anti-people and anti-historical.” 

Furthermore, Cirincione points to a recent Putin speech from June, where he does not mention NATO enlargement, but instead waxed rhapsodic about the wars of Peter the Great, which—he argues in a strikingly similar way to now the war in Ukraine is described—restored rightful Russian territory to the country’s people. Moreover, Cirincione points to Russian efforts to ‘Russify’ areas under its control, introducing rubles as the new currency, handing out Russian passports, and attempting to re-educate teachers and children with pro-Russian dogma. Cirincione argues that as Putin has long feared a wave of popular resistance emerging in Russia that poses a threat to his regime, he has thus attempted to control both the people and the narratives in Ukraine in order to tamp down on Western sentiment both inside and outside his own country. Cirincione points to former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Steven Pifer, who wrote in late July that, “for the Kremlin, a democratic, Western-oriented, economically successful Ukraine poses a nightmare, because that Ukraine would cause Russians to question why they cannot have the same political voice and democratic rights that Ukrainians do.”

For Cirincione, Putin’s invasion is not about the struggle between Putin and the West, but between Putin and his own people, as his growing authoritarianism and personalist dictatorship mean that he must crack down on alternatives to his rule lest ordinary Russians decide that there is a need for regime change. 

Finally, Cirincione states that the most critical flaw in Mearsheimer’s analysis is his minimization of Russian atrocities since the war broke out. From the military massacre at Bucha to the seizure of Ukrainian children for adoption back in Russia, the way Russia has prosecuted its war in Ukraine has been downright horrific. For Cirincione, this is not the actions of a state intent on pursuing “limited aims” in Ukraine, but the prosecution of a “sustained war of destruction” which has scorched the earth, kidnapped local elites, raped women and girls, and murdered any men believed capable of military activity. 

With Mearsheimer missing these key elements in his analysis, Cirincione argues, he ultimately arrives at the flawed conclusion that it is on the West to do what it can to seek an end to the war, pressuring Kyiv to turn over up to a quarter of Ukraine’s territory over to Russia, including the millions of Ukrainian citizens living there. However, in Cirincione’s estimation, such a surrender would not end all Russian aggression, merely temporarily satiate the beast, and lead the country to continue its offensive after a pause to absorb the lands it occupies and resupply its armed forces. 

More Missing Pieces

However, as excellent as Cirincione’s analysis is, even that is missing some other elements that shine a light on the behavior of Vladimir Putin towards Ukraine. To begin, Mearsheimer’s analysis states that the West’s original sin in Ukraine was the 2008 Bucharest summit declaration which paved the way for future hostility between Russia and the West. However, while that may be a convenient starting point for making the argument that Russian fears are largely driven by Western provocations, it misses the fact that Russia has long had an international legal commitment to the independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine, dating back to a promise made fourteen years earlier and around five hundred miles away in Budapest. 

The 1994 Budapest Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, signed between Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the U.S., provided, in its second clause, that, “the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence [emphasis added] of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.” Despite this binding commitment, already, four years before the contentious 2008 Bucharest declaration, the Russian president was deeply involved in violating the political independence of Ukraine, with alleged efforts to poison the Western-leaning Viktor Yushchenko—a traditional method of choice for the Russian security services—as well as more directly wading into the particulars of the 2004 runoff election in that country. 

This involvement by Putin likely emerged, as has been argued by former U.S. ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, out of a fear, “that the United States was orchestrating [Arab Spring] revolutions, just as he believed it had in Serbia in 2000, Georgia in 2003, and Ukraine in 2004.” Specifically, as McFaul remarked on Twitter back in late March of this year, “Putin has been paranoid about the US [being] out to overthrow his dictatorship for a long long time.” While Putin may point to U.S. involvement in the Orange Revolution in Ukraine as evidence of Western “meddling”, the U.S. did not directly fund the Yushchenko campaign and Western funding merely supported the holding of free and fair elections. While President Putin may find the holding of such elections to be unfair to his autocratic worldview, it would be exceedingly tendentious to say that the U.S. violated the political independence of Ukraine in the same way that attempting to poison a pro-Western candidate for office did. 

Indeed, it is hard to examine the history and not come to the conclusion that as soon as the people of eastern Europe began to throw off the shackles of autocrats that Putin began to feel nervous not only about his position in Russia, but about “Western encroachment.” More specifically, it is Putin’s particular worldview—shaped by the events shortly before, during, and after his election to the Russian presidency—that perhaps best explains that downturn in relations over the last two decades. 

Despite Russian displeasure at what it saw as an illegal NATO intervention in Yugoslavia to stop the war crimes of the Milošević regime—an intervention prompted as much by the Clinton administration’s guilt at having done not enough to prevent a genocide in Rwanda as by NATO’s newfound commitment to a more muscular foreign policy—the Western intervention in 1999 was initiated in the indisputable context of stopping the ethnic cleansing campaign going on there. 

As Cornell School of Law professor David Wippman wrote for the Fordham International Law Journal in 2001, “any judgment regarding the success or desirability of NATO’s intervention in Kosovo necessarily rests on unprovable assumptions. We can only speculate on what would have happened had NATO refrained from intervening. It seems probable, though, that the violence in Kosovo would have escalated, with potentially grave repercussions for the entire region…” and that, “on balance, then, it seems likely that both Kosovo and the region are better off than they would have been…” Finally, Wippman writes that, “unfortunately, NATO’s objectives could only be pursued by circumventing the U.N. Charter’s framework for the use of force…” 

Despite Russian protestations regarding NATO involvement in Kosovo, Putin did not contemporaneously indicate that it spelled a death knell for relations between Russia and the West. In fact, during a March 2000 conversation with legendary British television presenter David Frost, when asked whether it was possible that Russia could join the NATO Alliance, the soon-to-be Russian President replied that, “I don’t see why not. I would not rule out such a possibility,” and that, “when we talk about our opposition to NATO’s eastward expansion, we do not have in mind our special ambitions with respect to some or other regions of the world. Mind you, we have never declared any region of the world a zone of our special interests.” More importantly, shortly after the 9/11 attacks, Putin declared his openness to reconsider Russia’s past opposition to NATO expansion into the former Soviet states of eastern Europe, saying that, “As for NATO expansion, one can take an entirely new look at this… if NATO takes on a different shade and is becoming a political organisation.”

Moreover, Russian concerns about Western involvement on its periphery seem to be not as much about NATO encroachment as it is about Putin’s view that Russian sovereignty means the ability to violate the sovereignty of its neighbors when pursuing its own “security interests.” Specifically, since the early days of Putin’s rule, he has—just like fellow autocrat Xi Jinping—viewed the world through the lens of the breakup of the former Soviet Union and the dissolution of what constituted the Russian Empire. As was noted in a 2002 piece from The New York Times, “Mr. Putin’s bleak memories of the successive collapses of East Germany, the Soviet Union, and the K.G.B. he long served have left him deeply committed to preventing any further disintegration of Russia.” It is here that Putin’s paranoia about bandits and terrorists began to be on display in full force, with Putin acquaintance Alexander Rahr stating that Putin is, “obsessed with Chechnya. He has been from the beginning.” 

However, despite the brutality of the Russian campaign in Chechnya, the incoming Bush administration, “advocated a greater focus on the great powers in the world, such as Russia and China, and less attention to ‘humanitarian concerns’ such as Haiti, Somalia, Bosnia, and Kosovo,” as was noted in a 2003 paper by Michael McFaul. Further toeing the Russian line, “Bush administration officials had repeatedly stressed that the issue of Chechnya was covered at length behind closed doors,” but that, “when Bush has alluded to the Chechen situation publicly, however, he and the senior officials in his government have often adopted Putin’s portrayal of the Russian military operation as part of the war on terrorism.” 

It is also inescapable that around this time, Putin began to assert more autocratic control over the Russian nation. As Eric Chenoweth and Irena Lasota wrote in a March 18 article for the Reiss Center on Law and Security at New York University School of Law’s blog, Just Security, “Putin’s assumption to power, however, was not just as an individual. He was the chosen representative of an anti-democratic, post-communist system built around the reconstituted ‘organs of power,’ namely the security, intelligence, and military agencies. Trained in ‘late Stalinism’ during the periods of Leonid Brezhnev and Yuri Andropov, the scions of this new system aimed to restore Russian ‘greatness’ and dominion over a former empire,” and that, “Putin’s first tasks were to destroy democratic features that emerged within Russia since 1991 and all manifestations of independence among the remaining nationalities directly under control of the Russian Federation, most significantly the Chechen Republic.”

Furthermore, as Michael McFaul stated in an October 2021 article for the Journal of Democracy, in the first five years of his presidency, “Putin did, however, immediately reign in autonomous political institutions, organizations, and individuals that could constrain presidential power. He first seized control over national television networks, understanding that these assets played an essential role in delivering electoral success in the 1999 parliamentary election and his presidential election in 2000.” McFaul continues that, “in these early years, Russian democracy eroded significantly,” as, “scholars considered the political system a dictatorship, albeit with softening adjectives such as ‘electoral,’ ‘competitive,’ ‘unconsolidated,’ or ‘hybrid.”

It is therefore striking that overt Russian aggression towards its neighbors did not begin until 2008, when, according to McFaul, “Putin felt so in control that he stepped down as president, allowed his loyal aide, Dmitri Medvedev, to assume that office, and took over as prime minister himself.” Furthermore, in 2008, “[the] global financial crisis ended years of economic growth and weakened support for the government.” In that light, one can see how Putin’s aggressive posture towards his neighbors can be seen as more about his own domestic political situation than anything regarding NATO actions during that time period. 

As was argued by the Wilson Center’s Stephan Kieninger in a June 2022 commentary, “When Russia annexed Crimea and started its war in eastern Ukraine in 2014, Putin emphasized the reputed humiliation Russia had suffered in the face of broken promises by the West, including the alleged promise not to enlarge NATO beyond the borders of a reunited Germany. For more than twenty years, the “broken promise” has been a foundational leitmotif of Russia’s post-Soviet identity.” However, in reality, Kieninger states that, “there is no truth to it. In the 1990s the Bush and Clinton administrations engaged Russia on a broad scale. America used its “unipolar moment” as a chance to facilitate Russia’s transformation and its integration in the global community of nations.” 

Digital: GWB: 1500-1740: Bilateral meeting with the Prime Minister of Canada, Russia, and Germany/Source: https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2004/06/images/20040608-27_p41353-46-515h.html
Digital: GWB: 1500-1740: Bilateral meeting with the Prime Minister of Canada, Russia, and Germany/Source: https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2004/06/images/20040608-27_p41353-46-515h.html

Furthermore, there is a strong argument to be made that Putin, during his early years in power—and despite the early, warm relations with the Bush administration—was already interfering in the internal affairs of his neighbors, specifically through the weaponization of Russia’s 2002 “Federal Law on Citizenship of the Russian Federation,” which enabled people who once had Soviet citizenship, or those that reside in states that formed part of the Soviet Union, to obtain Russian citizenship. 

As explained by Elia Bescotti, Fabian Brukhardt, Maryna Rabinovich, and Cindy Wittke in a March 25 piece for the European University Institute’s Global Citizenship Observatory, “by obtaining a Russian passport, these people became Russian citizens and ‘compatriots’ who had to be protected by the Russian Federation according to Art. 15 of the 1999 Federal law ‘On the state policy of the Russian Federation in the relations with compatriots overseas’ and Art.7 of the Law on Citizenship,” and that, “since 2002, Russia  started its passportization policy and intensified it in the contested regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia,” resulting in, “90% of the population of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” holding Russian passports by 2006. 

Just as Putin rails that the West has used NATO expansion as an excuse to encroach on Russian interests in eastern Europe, Russia has similarly used “passportization” as a somewhat flimsy legal pretext to interfere in the sovereignty of its neighbors. As the Global Citizenship Observatory piece notes, “when Georgia undertook military action against South Ossetia’s provocations in August 2008, Russia reacted with a disproportionate military response against Georgia,” stating that, “Russia justified its military actions with Art. 51 of the UN Charter and its responsibility to protect Russian nationals in Abkhazia and South Ossetia from a Georgian “genocide.” Ultimately, Russia, “then recognised the two contested states as independent states on August 26, 2008,” despite Russia’s interpretation of the legality of those contested states’ remedial secession being unsupported by common practice in international law, nor backed by the EU’s International Independent Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia, which, “rejected the Russian argument for intervention in a situation that Russia had engineered itself.” In sum, while Putin views Western rhetoric surrounding democracy promotion as a thin pretext for those states’ interference in eastern Europe, Putin has similarly used a rather transparent cloak to hide his own interference in the affairs of his neighbors in the pursuit of increased Russian influence in those states’ affairs. 

A Particularly Putin-shaped Problem

Ultimately, a better way to view the actions of Vladimir Putin since he took the reins in Moscow in 2000 is through Putin’s quest to crush separatism, first in Chechnya, but later in the countries of the former Soviet Union, land which Putin saw a part of Russia’s “privileged sphere of influence.” Moreover, in analyzing the path of the relationship, one can see how an initially positive U.S.-Russian relations under the George W. Bush administration—forged in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and the “global war on terror”—would later sour and then turn even worse under the more human-rights-focused Obama administration.

Source: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Source: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

As Dmitri Trenin wrote in a 2003 policy brief for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in the Kremlin’s view, “it took the 9/11 disaster for the United States to see the danger of terrorism,” and that by immediately declaring his solidarity with the U.S. following the attacks, Putin, “managed to subsume the war in Chechnya within the global fight against terror…Moscow was not joining Washington’s war on terror, but exactly the other way around.” As long as the Bush administration was willing to look the other way while Putin continued his brutal campaign in Chechnya, the Russian leader was more than willing to maintain a friendly relationship with the U.S. as long as he was getting what he wanted. 

Indeed, as Michael McFaul writes in his book, From Cold War to Hot Peace, “in November 2002, NATO invited Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia to join the alliance; two years later, these states became NATO members. At the time, Putin called NATO obsolete and ridiculed the security gains of expansion. However, it would be only, “years later [that], Putin would resuscitate NATO expansion as a major issue of contention in Russian-American relations.” As McFaul concludes, “U.S.-Russia relations were strained but not broken by this latest wave of NATO expansion.” 

However, the relationship with the Bush administration would take a turn for the worse over U.S. involvement in Iraq, with “Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanonv [criticizing] the Bush administration almost daily since the war in Iraq began,” as noted in a 2003 report from The Washington Post. There is also other evidence that the relationship between the U.S. and Putin was taking a turn for the worse even before the 2008 Bucharest declaration, with the Council on Foreign Relations’ Stephen Sestanovich saying in 2007 that the U.S.-Russia partnership is, “ a chilly kind of unproductive relationship,” as the Bush administration became frustrated with Russian opposition on Iran, Darfur, and Kosovo

It was only after relations began to sour with the Bush administration, and then really turned for the worse under the Obama administration, that Putin renewed his objections to NATO’s continued enlargement. In essence, he was largely fine with the expansion of the Alliance as long as the U.S. was largely allowing him to have his way in Russia’s near-abroad; things only took a turn for the worse once the U.S. began to criticize and constrain his behavior. 

As was noted in a September 2018 report from the Center for American Progress, “between 1970 and 2010, the number of democratic states nearly tripled,” so that, “by 2000, more than half the world’s population lived under a democratic government for the first time in recorded history. This democratic wave brought a host of political and social rights to hundreds of millions of people and coincided with a historic decline in the incidence of interstate wars.” As such, “America’s enduring security, prosperity, and strength depend on the survival and success of democracy—both at home and abroad—as well as on the resilience of institutions, rules, and norms that protect the liberal democratic values on which the United States’ global standing is built.” Ultimately, therefore while NATO expansion is a convenient bogeyman for the Kremlin, it ignores the central fact that the U.S. relationship with Russia under Vladimir Putin was never going to be anything but contentious as long as the U.S. and its allies remained staunch supporters of democratic movements around the world.

As Michael McFaul notes in his book, From Cold War to Hot Peace, beginning in 2000, “Putin was moving Russia in an autocratic direction. To strengthen the state, Putin believed that he had to weaken checks on his power.” McFaul further warned in a March 2000 Washington Post op-ed that, “if a new nationalist dictatorship eventually consolidates in Russia, [the U.S.] will go back to spending trillions on defense to deter a rogue state with thousands of nuclear weapons.” In light of that, it is much easier to view Putin’s infamous 2007 Munich Security Conference speech that railed against NATO enlargement being less about the provocations posed by the Alliance’s expanding military footprint as it was about the further entrenchment of solidly democratic states on Russia’s border.

Ultimately, the U.S. was never likely to abandon its pursuit of democratization in eastern Europe, as the main benefit of that pursuit—which were so eloquently put in a 2013 statement of principles co-issued by the Center for American Progress (CAP)and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)—is the fact that, “a freer and more democratic world helps create a virtuous circle of improved security, stronger economic growth, and durable alliances—all of which better serve the long-term interests of the United States,” and that, “accountable, effective, and democratic governments make better and more reliable trading partners and provide the cornerstones of international stability.” Finally, the joint CAP/CSIS paper concludes that, “given their modest scale and numerous benefits, America’s official investments in promoting democracy and governance abroad deserve to be sustained even as we deal with very real budget challenges in this current era of fiscal austerity.”

Despite the fact that, “from the end of the Cold War until Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, NATO in Europe was drawing down resources and forces, not building up. Even while expanding membership, NATO’s military capacity in Europe was much greater in the 1990s than in the 2000s,” during that same period, “Putin was spending significant resources to modernize and expand Russia’s conventional forces deployed in Europe,” even as” the balance of power between NATO and Russia was shifting in favor of Moscow.” 

In essence, even while the NATO military threat to Russia was declining, Putin saw it as increasing almost entirely due to his own autocratic consolidation of power at home and abroad. As he cracked down on democracy at home, he became even more unable to allow pro-Western democratic movements to flourish in Russia’s near-abroad out of a fear that such movements could spread into Russia and eventually topple his regime. In that light, the Russian “security dilemma” was, in fact, of Putin’s own making: in attempting to maximize his own regime’s security by undermining democratic movements at home and abroad, he paradoxically created the conditions for Russia’s own insecurity, especially as, “in Ukraine, Russia’s meddling in the 2004 presidential contest helped spawn protests against corruption and for fair elections,” and, “in another round of protests a decade later, Ukrainians overthrew a pro-Russian government and replaced it with one closer to Europe and the West.”

Mearsheimer’s essay seemingly makes the case that in Ukraine, the West must reckon with the results of its provocations towards Russia during the past two decades. However, it is the Russian leaders’ own actions that have created the conditions for today’s war, not Western Alliance expansion—though that was, undeniably, a useful scapegoat for Putin, domestically.

From the beginning, Putin’s actual fears were less about NATO encroachment and more about democratic encroachment on Russia’s periphery. As far back as 2004, Putin began to fear that, “some US allies seemed intent on ‘isolating’ Russia and eroding its power in its traditional sphere of influence.” Therefore, while NATO expansion did likely play a part in Putin’s calculus, it was, according to Natia Seskuria of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “the gradual success of the democratization process,” which, “caused major dissatisfaction in the Kremlin and eventually led to its use of military force,” against Georgia in 2008. Furthermore, the, “overt Russian aggression [in Georgia] has hurt the Kremlin’s long-term strategic goals,” as, “since 2008, popular support for Georgia’s European and Euro-Atlantic integration has risen to an all-time high.” Similarly, the Russian aggression towards Ukraine since 2014 has shifted Ukrainian public opinion on the country’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

Ukranian Public Opinion on NATO Membership 2014-2021/Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/04/majority-ukrainians-support-joining-nato-does-this-matter/
Ukranian Public Opinion on NATO Membership 2014-2021/Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/04/majority-ukrainians-support-joining-nato-does-this-matter/

In the end, while NATO enlargement was a convenient excuse for Putin’s paranoia, it was largely democratic movements in the countries of the former Soviet Union—and the U.S. and European support thereof—that ultimately led Putin to pursue a strategy of aggression towards his neighbors. In trying to stifle the nascent Euro-Atlantic desires of Georgia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin sowed the winds of his current troubles; now, in Ukraine, he must reap the whirlwind.

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Under the Radar Reports

July 29, 2022

Due to scheduling issues this week—and in lieu of the usual paper looking at a singular topic—I thought it would be best to resume a practice that I like to do at least a few times every year: highlighting a couple of the more interesting papers, commentaries, and briefs that many people might have missed in the past few months. Especially with the war in Ukraine still raging, it is inevitable that certain stories fall below the radar. Therefore, it is an excellent time to dive into some of the topics and issues that may not be receiving enough international attention. 

Preventing Diversion and Misuse with the EPF

Source: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/European%20Peace%20Facility%20-%2018%20July%202022.pdf
Source: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/European%20Peace%20Facility%20-%2018%20July%202022.pdf

To begin, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) recently published an intriguing paper from Giovanna Maletta and Lauriane Héau examining ways to strengthen oversight of the European Peace Facility (EPF), which was established in March of 2021. The fund was created to replace the Athena financing mechanism and the now-defunct African Peace Facility (APF) from 2004, which had provided over €2.7 billion to the African Union (AU) in order to finance African-led peace support operations, capacity building for AU institutions, and AU-led conflict prevention initiatives. However, the fundamental difference between the APF and the European Peace Facility is that the EPF, for the first time, gives the European Union the option to bypass multilateral partners like the AU in order to directly fund national military initiatives, including the provision of lethal equipment to individual countries’ militaries. While originally planned for use in Africa, the EPF has already been used to provide Ukraine with €2.5 billion in military assistance, the first time the EU has funded the supply of weapons to a third country, and the first time it has done so during an ongoing war. However, despite the extraordinary circumstances forcing the EU to shift funds to Ukraine, the EPF is still largely intended to provide lethal assistance to EU partner countries in Africa. 

Source: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/European%20Peace%20Facility%20-%2018%20July%202022.pdf#page=3
Source: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/European%20Peace%20Facility%20-%2018%20July%202022.pdf#page=3

Since it came online last year, the EPF has been used to cover the funding of the EU Training Mission in Mozambique, as well as to provide non-lethal support to several partners in sub-Saharan Africa, including Mali, Somalia, and the Central African Republic. However, the SIPRI authors note that there are some potential issues regarding the EU’s provision of lethal equipment through the EPF, starting with the fact that, as currently constituted, the fund allows EU member states to attach conditions to the provision of such equipment. This can result in situations where there is confusion over the steps recipient nations would need to undertake in order to satisfy EU concerns about the use of lethal equipment funded by the EPF. 

Another issue is that in Ukraine, the EPF has been used to quickly provide military equipment, without publicly analyzing the prospective risks involved. While the exigency of the war may necessitate such rapid decision making, the SIPR authors note that such a slapdash procedure risks setting a precedent wherein there is little public discussion of the potential risks involved in sending large amounts of lethal equipment to a partner nation. As was noted in a 2021 report from the International Crisis Group, “European governments have a less than perfect record when it comes to assessing whether the militaries they are supporting will be bulwarks of stability or agents of instability,” and that, “critics of [the EPF] raise concerns about the EU’s capacity to conduct such assessments appropriately, particularly given that the institutions are relatively inexperienced in providing military support to non-EU countries.” Ultimately, without a thorough, publicly-available analysis from the European External Action Service (EEAS), there are tremendous risks that military equipment funded through the EPF may be misused or diverted.

Another, related, oversight issue is that there is a low level of publicly available information regarding the exact equipment being provided to partners under the EPF. Specifically, the SIPRI authors note that in the case of equipment transfers to Ukraine, the relevant, “council decision adopted so far to establish EPF assistance measures include limited descriptions of the items funded,” and that, “even following the adoption of the council decision, no detailed information was provided on the volume and type of equipment to be delivered.” While motivated by a desire not to tip Europe’s hand to Russia, such information needs to be shared with European publics if the provision of arms is going to have the proper oversight. Furthermore, as the EPF is an off-budget funding mechanism, with decisions on how the fund is allocated under the control of individual EU member states, there is little formal role for the European Parliament to affect decisions regarding the use of the fund. 

The SIPRI authors then dive into a discussion of the particular risks involved in providing arms to EU partners in sub-Saharan Africa. These include an increased risk in the diversion of small arms and light weapons (SALW), with a February 2021 report from SIPRI noting that, “illicit SALW trafficking in sub-Saharan Africa has been fed largely by diversion from government stockpiles.” While this can cover both intentional losses by units as well as losses caused by defeat or the hasty withdrawal of troops from a base of operations, without stronger weapons and ammunition management systems there is a significant risk of EU-funded equipment falling into the wrong hands.

Furthermore, the authors note that there is often a risk that lethal equipment is misused, resulting in violation of human rights and international humanitarian law (IHL). In a recent example, the authors point to the massacre perpetrated by Mali’s armed forces, in conjunction with Wagner Group mercenaries, in the town of Moura. While the EU has announced the suspension of the EU Training Mission in Mali and halted provision of equipment, such concerns about IHL violations by the Malian armed forces have been prevalent for years. 

To remedy these issues, the authors propose a number of steps, from instituting more robust post-shipment controls, supporting African partners in the development of strong arms transfer control systems—including promoting implementation of international programs like the UN’s Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects (PoA) and the Protocol against the Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, their Parts and Components and Ammunition (Firearms Protocol). Other recommendations include giving the European Parliament a greater role in EPF implementation; ensuring that European publics know exactly what kind of lethal equipment is being funded by the EPF; instituting a range of post-shipment controls to avoid misuse and diversion; using EU expertise to conduct risk assessments and post-shipment controls; ensuring that recipients receive the SALW control-related assistance; and developing best practices, including a clearinghouse for military staff to coordinate the demands and needs of partner armed forces with the supplies available from individual member states. 

As the Center for Civilians in Conflict has written, “should the EU decide to fund lethal weaponry, it must ensure that reinforced risk assessments are performed for high-risk deals (i.e., high risk items, partners, and/or geographical areas), including pre-sale assessments that must be regularly revisited throughout the life of the deal. It is also essential that deals be accompanied by customized technical assistance focused on appropriate and awful use of specific items, as well as regular monitoring to make sure that the partner adheres to these standards.” Otherwise, as the CIVIC report notes, “ experts agree that without sufficient [civilian harm mitigation] measures, such deals expose civilian populations to increased harm and potential human rights violations, and governments to legal, moral, political, and reputational risks.” 

How Viktor Orbán Wins

Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban discussed the prospects of Russian-Hungarian cooperation in trade, economic, energy, financial, cultural and humanitarian spheres/Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_and_Viktor_Orban_%282013-01-31%29_03.jpg
Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban discussed the prospects of Russian-Hungarian cooperation in trade, economic, energy, financial, cultural and humanitarian spheres/Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_and_Viktor_Orban_%282013-01-31%29_03.jpg

The next piece that is worth a look is from Kim Lane Scheppele in the Journal of Democracy. Tilted, “How Viktor Orbán Wins,” Scheppele’s paper offers a fascinating and detailed account of exactly how Orbán has managed to consolidate power in Hungary over the past decade despite never having majority support in the country. While the European Union has condemned actions by the Hungarian Prime Minister, including his adoption of a clearly anti-LGBTQ+ law as well as his flouting of decisions made by the European Court of Justice regarding the rule of law in Hungary, it has not been enough to change his hostility towards European democracy. Furthermore, in recent days, the Hungarian PM has doubled down on his criticisms of Western values, arguing in a speech in Baile Tusnad—a majority ethnic Hungarian city in Romania—that Hungarians, “are willing to mix with one another, but we do not want to become peoples of mixed-race,” and that in the West, “one half is a world where European and non-European peoples live together. These countries are no longer nations: they are nothing more than a conglomeration of peoples.” While such racist language should be no surprise to anyone long familiar with Orbán, his feeling that he can utter such vile thoughts without fear of political retribution, either at home or abroad, simply demonstrates how entrenched he is.

In Scheppele’s paper, the author traces how flaws in the reforms made to the 1949 Constitution in 1989 have ultimately led to the situation that exists today. Scheppele notes that even before the fall of the Soviet Union, political leaders in Hungary were immensely concerned about how their parties might fare in a new multiparty democracy. The end result of multiparty talks in Budapest in the fall of 1989, the new constitutional reforms set up a system where in Hungarians would cast one vote for a constituency representative and another for a party list, with parties requiring a 4% threshold to have party-list candidates enter parliament. As a result, in the first election in 1990, only six political parties cleared the threshold, with the largest vote recipient, the center-right Hungarian Democratic Forum winning 25% of votes, but receiving 45% of seats. In contrast, the runner-up, the center-left Free Democrats, won 21% of the vote, but received just 24% of the parliamentary seats. 

However, despite this disproportionality, power did eventually change hands in 1994, 1998, and 2002, with only 2006 seeing an incumbent re-elected, as the Hungarian Socialist-Alliance of Free Democrats coalition secured another term. When the 2008 financial crisis discredited the ruling Socialists, it not only ushered in the coalition’s electoral defeat, but possibly Hungary’s last free and fair elections. In the backlash to the country’s deteriorating economic conditions, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz won with 53% of the vote, securing 68% of seats in parliament. Combined with existing flaws in the 1949 Constitution which, “permitted the Constitution to be changed with a single two-thirds vote of the Parliament,” it “has enabled Fidesz to make…constitutional changes in a formally legal manner,” despite a slim win at the polls. 

With his newfound power, Orbán amended the constitution twelve times in his first year in office and ultimately unveiled a new constitution—which was approved on a party-line vote—cutting in half the size of parliament and redistricting the entire country, permitting the government to redraw constituency boundaries behind closed doors. The resulting law governing the boundaries, Law CCIII/2011, “created districts that varied immensely in size, with the smallest containing sixty-thousand voters and the largest, around ninety-thousand. Not surprisingly, the large districts were in the left-opposition strongholds, while the smaller districts were in Fidesz country.” Furthermore, Orbán’s new electoral system changed how individual constituency elections were run, eliminating runoffs so that a candidate winning fewer than half the votes in the first round could win a seat in parliament. He further created financial incentives for new, “fake political parties”, which ensured that voters would be confronted with a plethora of choices at election time, ultimately splintering the opposition vote. 

Scheppele’s paper further notes that even when the opposition united to attempt to defeat Orbán, the Fidesz leader simply changed the rules once again to split the opposition vote. In 2020, Orbán modified the election law to require that all parties running a party list also had to run candidates in seventy-one of one hundred and six constituencies, up from a prior threshold of twenty-seven constituencies. Faced with this, the opposition was forced to merge onto one giant party list despite being six, radically diverse political parties. Despite this, the United for Hungary coalition conducted primaries to select their candidate for Prime Minister, ultimately selecting Hódmezővásárhely mayor Péter Márki-Zay. However, Orbán again adapted, legalizing “voter tourism” in Hungary—permitting Hungarians to register to vote anywhere in the country, not only their place of residence—in an attempt to influence close parliamentary races by allowing Orbán to move voters from safe Fidesz districts to seats which were tightly contested. Combined with laws put in place in 2014 that offered citizenship and the right to vote to Hungarians who had never lived within the current borders of Hungary, it permitted a flood of nearly 450,000 registered, near-abroad voters, with little oversight over who these voters are or whether their votes are being properly submitted. 

Today, Scheppele notes, the united opposition must deal not only with the departure of far-right Jobbik voters from the anti-Orbán coalition, but it must do so while facing a government that is willing to engage in anti-democratic maneuvers to remain in power. While Orbán’s pre-election giveaways to potential Fidesz voters have only amplified the country’s economic slowdown, it is still too soon to tell if his oligarch backers will turn on him in large enough numbers to crack his grip on power. Ultimately, Scheppele worries that if that does happen, Hungary may not see a democratic renewal, but instead a cycle of repression and violence like has been seen in Turkey, Venezuela, and Russia, which has simply pushed investors to flee those countries and further dragged down their economies. Ultimately, Hungary’s precarious political and economic position might be a situation only Viktor Orbán can fix—a scary proposition, considering the country’s continued erosion of democracy

Civilian Harm Mitigation in Future Wars

Small Arms and Light Weapons/Source: https://www.undp.org/bosnia-herzegovina/publications/strategy-small-arms-and-light-weapons-control-bosnia-and-herzegovina-2013-2016
Small Arms and Light Weapons/Source: https://www.undp.org/bosnia-herzegovina/publications/strategy-small-arms-and-light-weapons-control-bosnia-and-herzegovina-2013-2016

Yet another fascinating piece that some may have missed is, “The Human Factor: The Enduring Relevance of Protecting Civilians in Future Wars,” a paper by Sahr Muhammedally and Daniel Mahanty for the Texas National Security Review, which aims to highlight the importance of civilian harm mitigation in future conflicts. The issue of mitigating civilian harm during wars is a topic covered a few times in these pages in recent months, as it is one of the most underappreciated issues facing military planners and operators in conflict zones around the globe. 

In their paper, Muhammedally and Mahanty examine the basic rules surrounding the protection of civilians (PoC) in armed conflict, ranging from the 1977 Additional Protocols I and II to the Geneva Convention to the U.S. Department of Defense’s Law of War manual, noting that these commitments require parties to comply with rules of distinction and proportionality when conducting attacks and ensure that appropriate precautionary measures are put in place to prevent undue damage to civilians. However, the authors also note that during the U.S.’ Middle East wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, there were too often cases where the U.S. did not make use of tools and best practices to prevent civilian harm. Specifically, Muhammedally and Mahanty point to a RAND Corporation study, which examined the battle for Raqqa in Iraq in 2017, that found an inconsistent use of post-strike assessments, gaps in targeting procedures, limited use of human and open source intelligence; overreliance on airborne systems, which led to target misidentification, and the prioritization of airpower over ground forces, even in dense urban environments, which led one military operator to derisively remark, “How do you shoot a weapon down an alley while you’re flying a plane?”

Ultimately, the authors propose that the U.S. needs to better prepare its forces for large scale operations in order to mitigate civilian harm by integrating the protection of civilians into commanders visions for the outcome of each mission; conducting population-centric analyses in the intelligence preparation phase of military operations; upgrading doctrine and training reflect the challenges of operations in large urban environments where civilians are present; and training U.S. partners on best practices on civilian harm mitigation. 

Not only would such measures help the U.S. fulfill its responsibility to protect the moral welfare of those conducting the fighting by preventing them from initiating strikes that may result in civilian deaths, but it would enable the military to better “win the hearts and minds” of civilians in the country in which it is fighting. It is important to set a good example because, as the authors argue, “how the United States adheres to the laws of armed conflict and protects civilians during war sets the tone for other armed forces, especially in partnered operations or when America trains and equips friendly forces.” 

Ultimately, U.S. civilian harm mitigation strategies must have full buy-in from the commanders on the ground, as the protection of civilians must be incorporated into every step of the military planning process, from pre-strike assessments to after-action reports if civilian harm mitigation is to be a fundamental watchword for all military operations. If the civilian population turns against U.S. forces and refrains from assisting and providing vitally needed intelligence, it is fundamentally damaging to U.S. security interest in that specific area of operations. 

China and Myanmar

Finally, there is an excellent piece by the United States Institute of Peace’s Jason Tower: “China Bets Strategic Projects, Regional Stability on Myanmar Coup Regime,” which examined the deepening links between Beijing and Myanmar’s State Administration Council (SAC). The July 14 analysis noted Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to Bagan, Myanmar for the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on July 3, specifically pointing out China’s efforts to push Mekong basin countries to deepen their engagement with the junta. 

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets with Myanmar junta Foreign Minister U Wunna Maung Lwin/Source: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/wjbz_663308/activities_663312/202207/t20220704_10714853.html

Despite junta‘s forces losing ground to rebels and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in recent months, China has stepped down its interactions with the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the exiled National Unity Government (NUG) and warmed up to the ruling junta’s Min Aung Hlaing. This comes after officials in Naypyidaw began signaling late last year their intentions to deliver on China’s sought-after development projects, including a dual-use port on the Indian Ocean at Kyaukphyu and the Muse-Mandalay Railroad project, both of which are intended to connect Yunnan province in China with the Indian Ocean, and are thus of vital economic interest to China, and its “two-ocean strategy”. However, Tower is careful to note that, “it is important to recognize the challenges inherent to any form of large-scale infrastructure development in Myanmar given the intensity of the civil war,” with the junta forced to deploy a large number of troops to maintain control over key infrastructure projects like the Letpadaung copper mine

Furthermore, Tower points out that, faced with a lack of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) pressure on the junta—either to conduct dialogue with the opposition or on plowing ahead with economic projects and holding fraudulent elections to empower a military proxy-party government—China has looked to the Lancang Mekong Cooperation Forum for regional backing instead. Tower argues that with four ASEAN states (Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam) joining China in a high-level meeting with representatives from the SAC early last month, it undercuts ASEAN’s regional centrality and emboldens the junta in confronting the opposition, “leading the [National Unity Government] to demand the Mekong countries avoid any LMC meetings involving the junta.”

With China using economic pressure to undercut the junta’s opposition, Tower proposes that the U.S., and its allies, raise the Myanmar issues through the Greater Mekong Region’s dialogue partnership programs, as well as the Japan-Mekong Cooperation and the Mekong-Australia Partnership; open dialogue with China on the need to prioritize peace over its economic objectives in Myanmar; and provide more support to states such as Malaysia and Indonesia that look to engage with the NUG and other opposition stakeholders. Tower correctly argues that the junta’s prevalence towards the use of violence will ultimately make its infrastructure projects even more unlikely to succeed given the resultant backlash from the country’s EAOs and the NUG’s People’s Defense Forces, but that ultimately, it will be the Burmese people who pay the price of China’s pursuit of ports and rail routes through Myanmar.

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Taking the Longest View in the Room: Biden, the Middle East, and the Future of U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council Relations

July 22, 2022

On Monday, July 18, President Biden returned to the U.S. from his four-day visit to the Middle East. During the trip, in which the U.S. president pushed for greater Arab-Israeli normalization, reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the region, and pressed for regional producers to reduce spare capacity in order to assist volatile European and global energy markets. However, as has been argued by Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute, the president’s trip, “pleased no one, angered some, achieved little, and underscored both the president and his nation’s weakness.” 

Indeed, the entire Middle East trip—which featured a prominent stop in Israel to talk up the Washington-Jerusalem partnership that seems as much about rejuvenating the flagging president as he battles pernicious inflation, a reactionary Supreme Court, and a potential Democratic wipeout in November—was largely a failure, with the administration having failed to convince regional leaders to secure production commitments that may have lessened inflation fears. Moreover, the trip was a predictable failure at that, with the likelihood that figures such as Mohammed bin Salman would decide to reward a president for whom he already has little love being vanishingly slim. Therefore, it is as good a time as any to dive into why the trip failed, what the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council relationship should look like, and how the Biden administration should proceed from here. 

The Fist-Bump Heard ‘Round the World: A Dismal Middle East Trip

While the breathless pearl-clutching over President Biden’s fist-bump with the Saudi Crown Prince drew howls of condemnation from liberal and conservative outlets alike, it was not the optics of the trip that are the primary issue. Instead, what should have concerned observers is the fact that the U.S. president was willing to go back on his campaign promise to, “make sure America does not check its values at the door to sell arms or buy oil.” However, the president tried to deflect criticism for the seemingly warm greeting with the future Saudi ruler, arguing that he went to the Middle East, “to meet with the GCC and nine nations to deal with the security and…the needs of the free world, and particularly the United States, and not leave a vacuum here, which was happening as it has in other parts of the world.” 

Despite this rhetoric, and the easing of Americans’ pain at the gas pumps recently, the president’s approval rating is sitting near its all-time low, with almost all polling data showing Biden with approval ratings below forty percent. While that figure is not historically unique—and history has shown presidents that have come back from worse spots, with former president Reagan bouncing back from a 35% approval in January 1983 to win one of the largest electoral landslides in American history—it does speak to the president’s overall weakness both within and without his own party. 

Ultimately, Biden’s trip to the Middle East was not a failure because he failed to secure a promise of increased oil output from the region’s monarchs, but because his rather transparent search for oil price relief threatened to reverse his campaign promises about how he would respond to Gulf demands. Moreover, petulantly dodging the criticism that he has not done enough to respond to Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) seeming impunity for his actions is not demonstrating some kind of dedication to a long-game or evidence that the president is playing three-dimensional chess, it is simply evading responsibility for living up to his campaign promises. Furthermore, pivoting from promising to treat MBS as a pariah to supplicating himself before the Saudi Crown Prince is damaging to U.S. credibility, as it demonstrates an abandonment of human rights issues as soon as gas climbs over four dollars per gallon. 

While the administration insists that its Middle East visit was just as much about ensuring that there is no future United States-shaped hole in the region—opening the door for China and Russia to increase their influence there—making an open-ended commitment to six monarchies in the region that continue to possess atrocious records on human rights demonstrates the kind of remorselessly transactional decision making that was supposed to be the hallmark of aspiring autocrats such as Donald Trump, rather than a president who professed a strong rhetorical commitment to human rights. Furthermore, contemplating such a renewed U.S. commitment to Gulf security would not only represent a seeming abandonment of American principles, but it would be doing so for a region that accounts for just eight percent of U.S. petroleum imports in 2021, and as the U.S. has become much less reliant on crude oil imports. 

US Total Petroleum Imports, OPEC, Persian Gulf, Canada 1960-2021/Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php
US Total Petroleum Imports, OPEC, Persian Gulf, Canada 1960-2021/Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php

While a number of experts have outlined new ways to rebuild the U.S.-Saudi relationship, with a proposal for a new U.S.-Saudi strategic compact covered in these pages earlier this month, none of them address the central fact that the ongoing spike in oil prices is entirely related to Russia’s war in Ukraine, which—though it may drag on for years according to some estimates—will eventually have to come to a conclusion. In the event Putin emerges victorious in Ukraine, there is a strong likelihood that the European appetite for sanctions—which presently holds at around eighty percent approval—will diminish, especially as the war continues to cast a long shadow over European economies. Indeed, EU High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has already begun warning officials about European societies becoming fatigued by their energy sanctions on Russia. 

However, Western officials have recently noted that the Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities in Ukraine, forcing a strategic pause for rest and rearmament, which will be increasingly challenging, as mounting equipment losses, coupled with a difficulty replacing its advanced equipment and munitions, make the prospects of a multi-year war somewhat untenable in the face of so-far strong Western economic sanctions. 

Therefore, creating a new regional architecture wherein the U.S. is the primary guarantor of Middle East states’ security in some kind of Middle Eastern NATO—as has been proposed in a number of different places, including a recent piece by Mohammad Abu Ghazleh for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Fika Forum—would be a strong example of making a long-term commitment based on short-term information. With no real understanding of how long the war in Ukraine will take to play out, or even what the global landscape will look like after the war is over, it would be the height of foolishness to enter into some kind of grand compact with a group of countries whose leaders frequently demonstrate little respect for human rights or Western values

As Harvard University’s Stephen Walt so excellently put it in an April podcast episode for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “U.S. policy in the Middle East for many years was based on more or less unconditional support for Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan,” but that now, “we’re seeing the limits of that policy. You don’t get unconditional support back. These countries pursue their own interests as you’d expect them to.” As such, Walt argues that the U.S. “must be willing to put more pressure on these partners when they’re behaving in ways that we don’t like. I think the United States simply has to have candid conversations with countries like Saudi Arabia who are constantly complaining that the United States isn’t supporting them, as well that we’re not reliable, or asking what it means that we got out of Afghanistan.” Walt instead proposes a new rebalancing of the relationship, as, “the United States can point to a pretty long track record of backing these countries when necessary and say, ‘Look, if you want to continue to be able to count on this, you can’t be perceived in the United States as an ungrateful partner. We’ve done at least as much for you if not more than you have done for us.’”

For too long now, the U.S.-Saudi relationship has been one where Saudi Arabia gets the lion’s share and average Americans are left wondering why their concerns are so rarely addressed. From helping to evacuate the extended bin Laden family as well as other Saudi figures in the U.S. in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks to muted American reaction following the Khashoggi murder to the U.S. support of the brutal Saudi intervention in Yemen, America has provided Saudi Arabia with many of its major requests, all while U.S. oil imports from the Kingdom have declined sharply since a peak in 2003. Furthermore, Middle Eastern dissatisfaction with the U.S. security guarantee has grown despite the region accounting for 43% of all U.S. arms exports in 2017-2021 and 47% in 2012-2016. 

Furthermore, unconditional U.S. support of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and continued American involvement in regional dynamics is detrimental to the U.S. relationship with Iran. As was pointed out in a recent report from the Royal United Services Institute’s (RUSI) Tobias Borck, Darya Dolzikova, and Jack Senogles, “Iran experts highlighted that, from Tehran’s perspective, Western policies in the region are among the key drivers of regional instability and insecurity,” and that while they, “noted that Iran may see a role for some actors – for instance, Europe or the UK – to play a convening role or to encourage their regional allies to engage in dialogue with Iran, but even such a limited role is unlikely to be seen in Tehran as particularly necessary or helpful.” Furthermore, the same report notes that there is not even unanimity amongst the GCC, as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait are concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. commitment to the region’s security, while Omani and Qatari experts assess, “that Muscat and Doha continue to feel confident in their relationship with the US,” especially as, “the Omani and Qatari governments do not see Iran as harbouring hostile intent towards them.” 

What’s more, the RUSI report notes, even though, “all Gulf monarchies, albeit to varying degrees, see a role for extra-regional actors to play in regional security,” there is the fact that, “Iran also believes that the involvement of  extra-regional powers, especially the US, in regional security matters is counter-productive and fundamentally destabilising,” and that, “it insists that regional actors are best placed to resolve their own differences and that extra-regional powers, especially the US, should play no role in a future regional security order.”

Therefore, one of the key questions relating to the U.S. rebalancing in the Middle East is how exactly to prioritize the potential resuscitation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). If one views that the preemption of an Iranian nuclear weapon—which does not require Iran to develop highly-enriched uranium in order to be catastrophically destructive—as the sine qua non in the region, then it is understandable that the United States would be less willing to entertain objections from regional partners who have demonstrated that their concerns about Iran are not entirely insurmountable

As Borck, Dolzikova, and Senogles remark in their report, even, “consulted GCC experts did not see an acceptable military solution to the Iranian nuclear issue,” with many regional experts noting that, “military escalation would not only pose a physical threat to the GCC states and their populations, but would also undermine – and potentially destroy – prospects to accomplish their respective economic development agendas.” Despite this—and somewhat shockingly—these same regional experts seem more worried about the potential for regional military escalation by Iranian proxies than they are over the potential for Iranian nuclear weapons. Those experts seem to recognize that Iran views its nuclear program through the lens of Iran’s relationship with the U.S., and to a lesser extent, Israel, suggesting that GCC leaders do not feel that Iran would be willing to make use of a nuclear device so close to its own backyard. This thinking, however, simply demonstrates the continued imbalance in the U.S. relationship with GCC countries—which are seemingly fine with the idea of an Iranian nuclear weapon targeting U.S. interests in the region, but terrified about a repeat of the Abqaiq-Khurais attacks from 2019.

Too often, the dominant narrative that seems to emerge from America’s Gulf partners is similar to what was written by the Hudson Institute’s Mohammed Khalid Alyahya in a July 15 piece, where he said that, “to be clear, [Saudis] are not looking for US troops to die for our oil. We want the US to help us to develop the systems we need to defend ourselves. We want the US to equip our armed forces with American-made weapons that not only make us stronger, but which make the US stronger, not least by creating jobs for American citizens,” but that, “in return  for keeping our part of the bargain, we expect the US to treat Saudi Arabia like a valued ally, respecting our society, our religion and our leaders, and paying attention to our needs, including our need for security in the region where we live.” 

However, that is manifestly not what the Saudi Crown Prince and his allies in the UAE seem to be pushing for, as the country appears to be looking for a guarantee that the U.S. would respond militarily to any attack made on its territory by Iranian proxies in the region. Furthermore, such positioning of the U.S.-Saudi dispute as some kind of quaint dispute over religious and cultural differences elides the fact that American public opinion regarding the Kingdom—and its human rights-averse partners in the region—is near all time low despite the country never being particularly popular in the first place. Furthermore, as was noted by Connor Echols in a July 8 brief for Responsible Statecraft, while many Americans remain on the fence about the president’s trip to the Middle East, recent polling indicates that few Americans outright approve of becoming further entrenched in the region’s politics. 

Managing U.S.-Gulf Relationship Moving Forward

A Return to the JCPOA?

All of that being said, it is undoubtedly clear that the U.S. is likely to continue its relationship with Gulf Cooperation Council countries, as while the U.S. is not very reliant on Gulf hydrocarbons, it does remain highly sensitive to shocks to the global economic system that are caused by turbulence in global energy markets. That does not mean, however, that the U.S. should allow itself to enter into a partnership that compromises its values or strategic goals for the region in order to achieve quiescence in the markets. Instead, what the United States should be doing is carefully assessing its overall objectives in the region, making clear to all of its partners what it sees as negotiable and what it does not; which, of course, must begin with negotiations to rejoin the JCPOA. The so-called “Iran deal”, derided by many in conservative circles—and even some liberal ones—is likely the best deal the United States is ever going to get with a country that is so far advanced in its nuclear program. As such, the international community must be honest about what it can actually prevent Iran from achieving—short of all-out military escalation and war—and what it can offer to Iran in exchange for putting aside the program.

Trump’s withdrawal from the deal with Iran damaged U.S. credibility and complicated future negotiations with Iran and other like-minded countries—as it was a blatant betrayal of American commitments abroad—and further sowed doubts amongst potential future interlocutors about the constancy of American deals from one presidential contest to the next. When coupled with the fact that this may be the last, best, chance to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and setting off a regional race for other states to obtain their own, it is understandable why the Biden administration has sought to resurrect the deal with Tehran despite domestic and Middle Eastern backlash. Furthermore, with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE already conducting their own outreach to Tehran, it is clear that Middle Eastern criticism of the JCPOA is more about how they would prefer to see the regional order, not a fundamental dealbreaker preventing the U.S. from making progress on a return to the deal. 

What’s more, when considering the impact of reentering the JCPOA with Iran on the wider Middle East, one must consider the domestic political situation in Tehran. With the transition from the Rouhani administration to the Raisi administration, which ushered in a more hardline, conservative, anti-Western cabinet, it has dealt a serious blow to moderate and reformist forces in the country. With Iranian parliamentary elections coming in 2024 and a new presidential election in 2025, if moderate and reform voices are to make any progress, then the West needs to demonstrate to average Iranians that there is some benefit to engaging with it. 

Impact of Sanctions on Iran's Economy/Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/these-6-charts-show-how-sanctions-are-crushing-irans-economy.html
Impact of Sanctions on Iran’s Economy/Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/these-6-charts-show-how-sanctions-are-crushing-irans-economy.html

Despite President Trump’s frequent claims to the contrary, the International Atomic Energy Agency, European Union, Russia, and China have all affirmed that Iran was upholding the strictures of the 2015 deal. Therefore, while Iran’s behavior regarding its use of proxies is certainly unacceptable, the U.S. cannot honestly say that such actions were entirely unprovoked, as it unilaterally pulled out of a binding agreement, dramatically impacting Iran’s economy and harming average Iranians, not simply regime elites. 

While reentering the deal will be difficult and complicated, especially with recent Iranian intransigence, a return to JCPOA represents the U.S.’ greatest chance to not only lower the regional temperature and empower moderates in Iran, but to begin creating an architecture wherein the Gulf monarchies and Iran can start to sort out their regional differences. While there are differences amongst the GCC states as to whether they would prefer bilateral or multilateral engagement with Iran—and it will be vital for the United States to convey a message to Tehran that it will not abandon its partners in Riyadh, Manama, Abu Dhabi, or elsewhere in the region—the most important thing is creating a regional format for talks that can de-escalate regional tensions once the nuclear deal is back in place. 

The War in Yemen and Iran’s Proxies

The next major issue that will need to be resolved before any kind of regional de-escalation can commence, is a winding down of the Saudi intervention in Yemen, and a conversation between regional actors on their use of proxy forces. While it is undoubted that Iran has amassed a range of proxy forces which conduct violent attacks across the region, it is not as if Saudi Arabia does not have its own ignominious involvement with militant groups advancing Saudi-supported goals in the region. 

However, before a wider discussion on Middle Eastern states’ use of proxies can occur, the first thing that will need to happen is for the war in Yemen to begin to wind down in order to alleviate the suffering of ordinary Yemenis. With the truce in the country still holding at present, it is the best time in recent memory to begin talks on the conclusion of the nearly eight-year long conflict. While the Raisi administration has been somewhat adamant in its refusal to discuss the country’s use of proxies in JCPOA talks, a revived nuclear deal between the Islamic Republic and the U.S.—coupled with renewed efforts towards some kind of regional stability talks between GCC countries and the diminishing power of Iranian ally Russia due to its war in Ukraine—might just empower the moderate forces in Iranian politics enough for the administration to consider discussing reining in its proxies. 

While such movement towards regional de-escalation is certainly far from guaranteed, the alternative is simply not worth considering. A U.S. or Iranian refusal to return to the nuclear deal would almost certainly guarantee a regional conflict, likely soon, as countries like Israel—which has already carried out attacks on the Iranian nuclear enterprise—will likely wish to strike Iran before it has the ability to miniaturize and mount a nuclear warhead on one of its ballistic missiles with the range to reach Jerusalem. Furthermore, with the conclusion of the IAEA that Iran has enough fissile material for a low-yield nuclear weapon already, any such attack by Israel or any of the Gulf countries risks a nuclear counterattack by Iran, either through a ballistic missile attack or a bomb that was smuggled out of the country and detonated elsewhere in the region. 

With even Israeli security officials coming around to the fact that the JCPOA is the best deal that the region is likely ever going to get, Gulf monarchs must realize that there is little that the U.S. can do at this point to prevent either a Iranian nuclear weapon or wider regional escalation without either re-entering the nuclear deal or starting a major war with Tehran. While the U.S. should, of course, make all possible arrangements to protect its longtime allies in the region should Iran, or its proxies, continue to violate the territorial sovereignty of GCC states or Israel, America’s regional allies must recognize that the U.S. has much greater concerns than the 8% of its oil than it gets from the Middle East. While American partners in Europe are certainly more reliant on the region’s hydrocarbons, it does not impress upon the United States an obligation to remain in the region on an open-ended basis. 

Rather than formulating some new NATO-like compact between the U.S. and the six GCC countries, what the U.S. should be instead doing is acting as a convening power, working with the six Gulf monarchies, Israel, Egypt, Turkey, and the European Union to get those countries to sit down to discuss how they will begin to manage Iran; the—at least temporary—transition away from Russian oil and gas; and the future security picture in the region. As the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Aaron David Miller and Richard Sokolsky wrote in a September 2020 piece for Politico, while, “American leadership and exceptionalism cannot fix a broken Middle East or play a major role in leading it to a better future,” the, “U.S. still has interests there to protect but America needs to be realistic, prudent and disciplined in how it secures them. If we can learn to act with restraint, we’ll avoid overreach, arrogance and self-inflicted wounds that have caused us and many others so much unnecessary misery and trouble.”

While the U.S. should certainly not be considering stepping up its military engagement in the region, it does not mean that the present U.S. presence there is trivial. With the U.S. Fifth Fleet at home in Manama—allowing the U.S. to deter Iran and keep the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean free from piracy—and another 60,000 U.S. troops stationed throughout bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Jordan, Iraq, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, it is not as if the U.S. is leaving the region totally unprotected. Furthermore, in response to Saudi complaints about the U.S. not stepping up in regards to Houthi attacks on its territory, the U.S. has, “approved missiles and anti-ballistic defence system sales to Saudi Arabia, including 280 air-to-air missiles valued up to $650 million,” with the U.S. even sending Patriot missile systems and other equipment since the beginning of this year. 

U.S. Access to Bases and Facilities in the Middle East/Source: https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/assessing-the-global-operating-environment/middle-east
U.S. Access to Bases and Facilities in the Middle East/Source: https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/assessing-the-global-operating-environment/middle-east

Concluding Thoughts

Ultimately, while the Middle East is an area the United States cannot simply ignore, it is not an area on which it should be focusing the majority of its attention, whatever Riyadh or Abu Dhabi might want. Furthermore, while global energy prices are certainly something that the U.S. and its consumers would want to be lower, that cannot come at the expense of a prolonged U.S. commitment to a region that is fundamentally not a long-term security priority. With the global transition to renewable energy—which even the Gulf’s monarchies have recognized a need for—moving apace, even Europe will see its dependence on hydrocarbons diminish in the coming decade. As such, it makes little sense for the U.S. to begin discussing a new, open-ended commitment to the region while the West will become ever less reliant on Middle Eastern hydrocarbons.  

When it comes to the region, the proverbial elephant in the room in all of these discussions is what specific security guarantees the GCC countries would need in order to consider increasing oil production quotas. For example, despite Russia launching an unwarranted, illegal attack on its neighbor, GCC countries have resisted taking sides, with OPEC+ sticking to modest output increases despite tightening of the global markets in response to one of its members’ invasion of a sovereign country. If there was ever a time for Gulf countries to demonstrate their usefulness as partners to the West, it would have been in condemning the Russian invasion—and its resultant atrocities—at the UN, and raising oil production quotas, further increasing the damage of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. Instead, the UAE’s Minister of Foreign Affairs—and brother of the future King—has discussed the country’s warm relations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and Saudi Arabia has doubled its import of sanctioned Russian fuel oil in recent days; none of which are the actions of partners wishing to demonstrate their utility or friendship. 

Too often, it seems that while rulers in the Gulf wish the U.S. to act more pragmatically towards their countries, those same leaders do not seem to be able  to see how their own demands show little such pragmatism. Gulf states must recognize that, no matter their efforts towards modernization in recent years, that they are not geopolitical equals to the United States. While Saudi Arabia does possess the 18th largest economy in the world, it still remains several hundred billion dollars per year behind Mexico, a country much closer to the United States that it often has strained relations with. 

In the end, the Middle East has regional problems that require regional solutions. While the U.S. should certainly be ready to step in should its allies in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere receive some kind of unprovoked, large-scale, attack from Iran, it should not mean permanently stationing large amounts of troops and equipment in the region to do so. If Gulf partners do not wish to meet the Western requests for an improvement in their behavior—including promises to improve the human rights situations in their countries, as well as efforts to cease provocative actions such as the mass execution of dissidents—then the U.S. does not have some kind of moral imperative to continue the relationship. 

Since the early 1990s, the U.S. has entered into the first Gulf War to protect Kuwait and other regional countries from Saddam Hussein’s aggression, cooperated with regional efforts to combat the Islamic State, and sold hundreds of billions in modern U.S. military equipment to the region. Despite this, regional states are the proverbial mouse with a cookie, in that they always want something more. Unfortunately, the halcyon days that followed the end of the Cold War are long gone, and the U.S. not only faces new global competition from China, but an economically more constrained operating environment—especially as the current president attempts to reorient U.S. foreign policy to benefit the American middle class—as well as a need to address challenges in a rising Africa. 

Therefore, Gulf Arab states must accept that, moving forward, the U.S. must have a lighter footprint in the region, enabling it to focus on greater threats in the Indo-Pacific. While that does not mean an abandonment of its partners in the region, it does mean that Gulf states must begin to accept the new reality and recognize that they are not going to achieve all of their maximalist goals vis-à-vis Iran. Instead, they must recognize that the only players that can ultimately resolve the sides’ differences is themselves. While the U.S. should, of course, stand ready to respond to any attack made by Iran or other outside force on its Gulf partners, the U.S. cannot assume responsibility for preventing all such attacks, especially when the GCC-Iran dispute is primarily a dispute between Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Iran; with Oman and Qatar not viewing Iran as bearing a specific hostility towards their nations and Kuwait and the UAE split somewhere in between. 

If Gulf states want a more vigorous security commitment from the U.S., then they need to be willing to take greater steps to align with the U.S. on issues it sees as important. With Saudi Arabia, not only would that involve showing at least some measure of contrition for the brutal killing of Jamal Khashoggi, but it would start with efforts to align the country with the U.S. on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since the breakout of the war, which greatly affects Euro-Atlantic security, the region’s leadership has attempted to hedge between the West and Russia, looking to maximize oil and gas profits at a time of global suffering. Whether regional leaders believe that this is just an example of states acting in their own self-interest or not, the inescapable conclusion in the West really must be that Gulf countries will not support the West during their own times of crisis. Therefore, why should the West—and specifically the U.S.—bend over backwards to cater to Gulf monarchies who so often trample on Western values. 

While President Biden was right to tell regional leaders that the U.S., “will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran,” he would be foolish to make promises of greater U.S. commitment without first gaining a number of concessions from the Gulf states. From improving their human rights performance and committing to reduce their import of Russian hydrocarbons to working towards some kind of modus vivendi with Iran and ending the war in Yemen, Gulf monarchs must demonstrate their continued usefulness to the United States if they wish the United States to show them some kind of robust future security commitment. If Gulf states do not, and the U.S. still commits to a strengthened, long-term, presence in the region, then when the U.S. is dragged into a conflict with Iran of Saudi Arabia or Bahrain’s making, the U.S. will have no one else to blame but itself. These are, of course, difficult decisions, which may very well be costly in the short term; but the long-term costs—including the hit to the U.S.’ reputation by continually genuflecting before human rights abusers in order to obtain a discount on hydrocarbons—of focusing on the Middle East instead of Asia are greater

During President Biden’s visit to the region, Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan said to reporters that, “we listen to our partners and friends from all over the world especially consumer countries…But at the end of the day, OPEC+ follows the market situation and will supply energy as needed.” The United States should be similarly blunt in its response to the region, telling Gulf states that the U.S. listens to its longtime partners and friends, but, at the end of the day, the United States follows its interests and will provide security guarantees only to countries that we feel have aligned with ours.

Former Philadelphia 76ers General Manager Sam Hinkie, one of the most forward-thinking sports-related figures in recent history, in his discussions on podcasts as well as his resignation letter to 76ers management, always stated that he attempted, “to stay true to the ideal of having the longest view in the room.” A concept that he borrowed from his time in investment banking, having the longest view in the room meant attempting to think through and game out the secondary and tertiary effects of decision making, to better understand the potential outcomes of any given decision. By having the longest view in the room, one avoids making temporary decisions that provide present-day benefits, but that ultimately hinder long-term strategy. 

In managing the United States’ relationship with countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Biden administration must strive to take the longest view in the room and work towards a day when the Euro-Atlantic community is not as reliant on Middle Eastern hydrocarbons as it is now. If the administration does so, it will find that its best course of action is not to double down on the relationship with the Gulf monarchies, but to focus its attention on how to best get the region’s countries to sit down and figure out solutions to the region’s problems.

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Sleepwalking Into Disaster: U.S. and EU Foreign Policy in the Western Balkans

July 15, 2022

Back in June of this year, European Council President Charles Michel visited North Macedonia in an effort to begin EU membership talks with the country, and its neighbor, Albania. While the two nations are currently blocked in their path to EU accession by Bulgaria, Michel argued that the war in Ukraine has raised the saliency of EU enlargement, stating at a joint press conference with North Macedonia’s President Stevo Pendarovski that, “the EU is firmly committed to your entry into the EU and the start of negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania to begin as soon as possible.” 

EU relations with the Western Balkans/Source: https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/system/files/2022-06/eu_wb_relations%201706.pdf
EU relations with the Western Balkans/Source: https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/system/files/2022-06/eu_wb_relations%201706.pdf

Furthermore, on July 7, NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană was in Pristina, Kosovo to attend meetings with local officials and visit the NATO-led KFOR mission in order to communicate to Western Balkans countries that they do not face an imminent threat from the war in Ukraine, and that NATO has, “ a strategic interest…in the Western Balkans,” with Geoană sending, “a message of hope for all the people to the Western Balkans that ultimately all of us will find ourselves in the European and Euro-Atlantic family. 

However, despite these expressions of Euro-Atlantic interest in the region, the situation in the Western Balkans is unraveling. To begin, the economic picture in the region dimming, with World Bank Country Director for the Western Balkans, Linda Van Gelder arguing in May that, “despite a strong rebound from the pandemic, the Western Balkans now face a new set of challenges, compounded by the war in Ukraine, including rising energy and food prices, high inflation, and slowing trade and investment.” What’s more, recent efforts to jumpstart the region’s EU integration have gone poorly, with a June summit having failed to work out a compromise between Bulgaria and North Macedonia regarding the latter’s accession, despite North Macedonia having been an EU candidate since 2005. This failure to achieve a breakthrough left North Macedonian Prime Minister Dimitar Kovačevski fuming that, “what is happening now is a serious problem and a serious blow to the credibility of the European Union,” and Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama lamenting  that, “the enlargement spirit has gone from a shared vision of an entire community to the kidnapping of individual member states.” 

Coupled with this is the fact that the region is seemingly descending into a level of unrest not seen since the conflicts that followed breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, with Bosnia and Herzegovina being threatened with dissolution, long-running disputes between Kosovo and Serbia threatening to escalate, and violent clashes over the future of the Orthodox Church in Montenegro, amongst other issues. 

EU-Western Balkans' Interlinked Economies/Source: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/western-balkans-economy/
EU-Western Balkans’ Interlinked Economies/Source: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/western-balkans-economy/

In all, these recent events have demonstrated that the region’s path towards greater European integration is in limbo, with little momentum, and even less interest from the EU’s twenty-seven members about breaking the impasse. Despite this, there are a number of reasons why the EU, and the U.S. to a lesser extent, should renew their efforts in the region. As was noted by the EU’s European External Action Service (EEAS), from 2011-2021, EU trade with the region grew almost 130%, while, in the same period, Western Balkans exports to the EU increased by 207%. 

Western Balkan countries trade with main partners, 2021/Source: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/733523/EPRS_ATA(2022)733523_EN.pdf#page=2
Western Balkan countries trade with main partners, 2021/Source: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/733523/EPRS_ATA(2022)733523_EN.pdf#page=2

Furthermore, the ongoing lack of consistent European and American attention to the region does not simply risk a breakup of Bosnia and Herzegovina or a return to sectarian and inter-ethnic violence in the region, but the expansion of both Russian and Chinese influence as well. It is therefore vital that the EU, with U.S. support, renews efforts to broker an end to the Kosovo-Serbia dispute, Bulgaria’s veto on North Macedonian accession, and Bosnian Serb secessionism, if the West wants to avoid further instability in southeastern Europe. 

Russian Influence in the Western Balkans

In examining how best to achieve greater levels of stability for the Western Balkans six (WB6) of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, it is perhaps, paradoxically, best to understand what the West’s greatest competitors are looking for in the region. As was argued by the late U.S. Senator John McCain in a Washington Post op-ed about the region back in April of 2017, the, “most disturbing [thing] of all is Russia’s intensifying effort to assert its malign influence in the region and to prevent the nations of southeastern Europe from choosing their own futures,” with the Senator pointing out that Russia’s efforts in the region, “will show that Vladimir Putin will do whatever it takes to achieve his ambition to restore the Russian Empire.” 

As was recently remarked on by the European Parliament, Russian ties to the region go back to the pan-Slavic movement of the 19th century and Russian support for Serbian independence from the Ottoman Empire. Furthermore, as was submitted by the George C. Marshall Center for Security Studies’ Valbona Zenelli in an October 2020 report, “beyond its abstract influence, Russia has strong economic interests in the region in the form of energy transportation routes and arms control,” and that, “through a mix of hybrid tools, Russia is acting to increase its influence through corruption, coercion, business activity and state propaganda, with the objective of destabilizing the region and stalling its Euro-Atlantic integration.” 

Zenelli further remarks that, based on long-standing cultural and historical ties, Serbia has become Russia’s main partner in the region, “and the hub of Russian influence in the Western Balkans.” Indeed, an August 2021 European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) poll showed that not only do 54% of Serbians view Russia as an ally; but when combined with those who view Russia as at least a necessary partner, that figure rises to 95% of all Serbians. Furthermore, as was pointed out by Engjellushe Morina in a March piece for the ECFR, that close relationship has allowed Russia to spread its influence in the country, with Russia opening a military base disguised as a humanitarian center in 2016, and, in 2020, opening a defense ministry liaison office in Serbia in an attempt to strengthen military ties between the two countries. 

Majority of Serbians see Russia/China as ally/necessary partner/Source: https://ecfr.eu/article/pandemic-trends-serbia-looks-east-ukraine-looks-west/
Majority of Serbians see Russia/China as ally/necessary partner/Source: https://ecfr.eu/article/pandemic-trends-serbia-looks-east-ukraine-looks-west/

Moreover, Russia has tried to influence Montenegro’s European integration, supporting the pro-Serb Democratic Front in Montenegro, with allegations that, in 2016, pro-Russian figures attempted to assassinate then-Prime Minister Milo Đukanović in order to block the country’s path towards NATO accession. Furthermore, there are indications that Russia has sought to use its influence over the Orthodox Church to influence Montenegrin foreign policy as well as its spot as one of Montenegro’s largest investors, as well as its spot as a top Russian tourist destination, to further influence the country’s behavior. 

Debt to China, accumulated by loans for infrastructure and energy projects, as a % of total foreign debt in 2019/Source: https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2020-08/china-and-the-eu-in-the-western-balkans.pdf#page=20
Debt to China, accumulated by loans for infrastructure and energy projects, as a % of total foreign debt in 2019/Source: https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2020-08/china-and-the-eu-in-the-western-balkans.pdf#page=20

What’s more, in North Macedonia, Russia’s gray-zone operations attempted to influence the referendum on the country’s name change, in hopes of scuttling the move and harming North Macedonia’s relationship with another NATO member, Greece. In addition, as was pointed out in a December 2020 NATO Review by Daniel Sunter, Russian influence operations in the Western Balkans have widely proliferated. Finally, while Russian influence in Kosovo may be diminishing, there are concerns in some circles that Russia could use the growing secessionist sentiment in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) to open up a second front against the West in the Balkans. 

In all, Moscow not only views the Western Balkans as a dangerous front for continuing NATO and EU encroachment, but it sees the region as part of its historical and cultural patrimony. While not as vital for Putin’s imperial ambitions as former Soviet republics Ukraine or Georgia, Russia still, “actively looks for opportunities to expand its influence in the Balkans, project power in to Western Europe, and complicate transatlantic policy formulation toward the region,” as was argued in a 2019 paper from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Paul Stronski and Annie Himes. 

Chinese Influence in the Western Balkans

Chinese influence operations in the region, while not culturally or historically motivated, are no less pernicious for Western interests. As noted by ECFR’s Vladimir Shopov in an excellent February 2021 policy brief, Beijing has attempted to use its economic, cultural, and academic strengths to improve ties between the Western Balkans and itself. These areas of influence encompass bilateral governmental and party cooperation through the 17+1 framework, individual political party cooperation—such as between the Montenegrin Democratic Party of Socialists and the Chinese Communist Party—the expansion of Confucius Institutes in the region, and the increase in academic ties between Balkan and Chinese educational institutions. 

However, while China is increasing its political and cultural ties with the region, its main interest appears to be largely economic. Furthermore, China’s primary economic interests are largely in energy and infrastructure projects, with all of the WB6—outside of Kosovo, whose independence China does not recognize—having signed memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with China on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. What’s more, as was asserted by the Bertelsmann Stiftung Foundations’ Jacob Mardell, in a review of China’s economic footprint in the region, “even more so than elsewhere along the BRI, large, state-guaranteed loans for transport and energy projects characterize China’s economic footprint in the Western Balkans.” Furthermore, Mardell remarks that China’s interest in the region is largely self-serving, noting that, “China’s economic footprint in the Western Balkans is characterized by the state mercantilist coupling of Chinese engineering muscle in road, rail, and energy sectors, with concessional Chinese credit, specifically Exim loans at 2% to 4% interest financing. A Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) is always the general contractor, using Chinese equipment and labor.” However, it should be noted that Mardell’s report, and a 2020 report from the Dutch Clingendael Institute, have both pointed out that China has had a much greater degree of success in Serbia than in any of the rest of the WB6. 

However, as Mardell and Shopov both explain in their pieces, China’s economic interest in the region is anything but benign. Shopov notes that while most of the WB6 have manageable debts, that China accounts for a rising share of regional countries’ liabilities, with Montenegro becoming a, “textbook example of debt-trap diplomacy, with its debts amounting to an excruciatingly high 80% of GDP.” Further, as Mardell notes, while China, “does not deliberately make unsustainable loans for the purpose of ensuring countries in debt traps,” its export-import bank, “does have a greater appetite for commercially dubious projects than [international financial institutions] like the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). This is partly because the money always goes to pay a Chinese SOE anyway.” Mardell argues that China, “essentially wins several times on these deals, employing SOE capacity, earning interest, and, if everything goes well, generating goodwill with host countries.”

As Mardell notes, this Chinese presence means more competition for European companies, the financing of economically and environmentally questionable projects that the EU does not wish to see funded, and the unwelcome addition to the region of no-strings attached financing for projects, which, “does not condition aid on reform and compliance with Western development practices.”

The (Long) Path Towards EU Accession

Ultimately, however, it is not simply foreign interference that has prevented the region’s countries from completing their path towards European Union accession. Instead, unfortunately, the countries have largely blocked their own routes towards further European integration, either through conflict with each other, or through failures to complete the reforms that are necessary prerequisites to joining the EU. 

In the International Crisis Group’s remarkable new report from July 7, “Managing the Risks of Instability in the Western Balkans,” the authors note that, “over the years, the gravitational pull once exerted by the prospect of EU membership over Balkan politics has faded along with the realisation that membership will take much longer and require much greater effort than people once expected,” as accession has become a process that exists, “beyond the political lifespan,” of regional leaders. Furthermore, despite a long-standing EU interest in expanding into the region, polling data from 2015-2021 shows that between 20-28% of respondents feel that their country will never join the EU, potentially damaging the allure of further European integration for the people in the region. 

However, what complicates the EU accession picture for the region is the lack of reforms progress from the Western Balkans candidates. As pointed out by the Crisis Group report, in September 2020 speech at the Forum on the Western Balkans, European Union Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Olivér Várhelyi argued that one of the main challenges preventing further integration of the Western Balkans is that, “there is an enormous gap in terms of economic development between the Western Balkans and the EU,” with none of the WB6 having what the European Commission would call a “functioning market economy” that is strong enough for accession into the union. More specifically, the Crisis Group report points out that, while Bulgaria—the poorest country ever to join the EU—had a GDP per capita of only 41% of the EU average, the WB6 range from just 26% to 46% of the EU average. Furthermore, the Crisis Group authors remark that at their present rate of between 1.8-6.6% GDP growth per year over the last decade, it will be at least a decade, if not more, until the Western Balkans states reach even Bulgaria’s poor 2007 mark. 

In addition to these economic challenges, the region is also beset by a number of governance and regulatory shortcomings, with the WB6 averaging 119th out of 141 countries in their reliance on professional management in the labor market. Furthermore, as was noted by a study requested by the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) in May of this year, “the Western Balkans did not attract any major investments until the early 2000s, due to the poor business environment, weak rule of law and continuing political risk,” and that despite a large increase in foreign investment in the 2000s in manufacturing sector, “over recent decades, labour market indicators for the Western Balkans have continued to diverge significantly from EU averages,” and that, “strong economic growth during 2001-2008 has not been accompanied by an equally dynamic process of job creation,” as, “educational institutions have not adapted quickly enough to rapidly changing market needs.” The European Commission report concludes that, because of this, “unemployment rates remain much higher than those in the EU27, ranging from 10.4% in Serbia to 26% in Kosovo in 2019.” As a result of these conditions, the Crisis Group report states that, “the Balkan economies are among the least competitive in Europe and comparable to those of developing countries facing much worse historical legacies and contemporary difficulties.” As a result, locals invest little at home, which simply perpetuates the cycle. 

These economic challenges are additionally compounded by democracy deficits in the region, with Montenegro’s Milo Đukanović, Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić, and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Milorad Dodik exhibiting strong authoritarian and nationalist tendencies. In Serbia, despite widespread reports of bribery, intimidation, and gerrymandering, Vučić recently secured a second presidential term, winning 60% of the vote in April’s election. His re-election comes after a 2019 European Parliament briefing, which noted that in Serbia, press freedom has been on the decline since Vučić became prime minister in 2014, with a large part of the country’s media directly or indirectly controlled by the state or Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Furthermore, under Vučić, Serbia has been downgraded by Freedom House from “free” in 2018 to “partly free” today. Furthermore, Vučić’s time in power has seen the harassment of journalists become more widespread, the excessive consolidation of political power in Vučić’s own hands, elections that have become more and more illegitimate, lagging judicial reforms, and a series of attacks on civil society organizations. 

In Montenegro, while 2020 saw the end of thirty-years of rule by Milo Đukanović’s Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the transition has not been smooth, as the winning coalition has a razor-thin majority and is in a politically precarious position, having to defend itself against a no-confidence motion by the DPS earlier this month. Furthermore, the Crisis Group authors point out that much of the Montenegrin financial sector and many of its media outlets are still aligned with Đukanović’s party. Finally, Đukanović’s appearance in the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists’ Pandora Papers further demonstrates the Montenegrin president’s past questionable behaviors, and potential abuses of power. 

The Major Problems: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Serbia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

While each of the WB6 must overcome a series of hurdles if they want to resume their paths towards greater European integration, the Crisis Group report notes that the most critical players in the coming years are likely to be Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Serbia, with Bosnia and Herzegovina the most likely state to erupt into instability in the near future. 

Discussed in the very first post for this blog, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been a confounding challenge for the Euro-Atlantic alliance since the breakup of Yugoslavia and the resulting wars in the 1990s. While the Dayton peace agreement has kept the peace for over a quarter of a century, it may no longer be able to keep the country together, with Milorad Dodik—the leader of one of BiH’s two political entities, Republika Srpska—threatening to withdraw from shared state institutions and rejecting the powers of the Dayton peace agreement’s High Representative, threatening the overall cohesion of the Bosnian state. 

Ultimately, Dayton must be recognized as more of a patch job than a real fix for BiH, as the creation of the Office of the High Representative (OHR)—and its ability to issue binding decisions, granted by the Bonn Peace Implementation Conference’s Peace Implementation Council in 1997—was extremely divisive inside the country. Not only that, but the High representative’s ability to remove and appoint leaders; amend both the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska constitutions; and enact laws, including those affecting the judiciary, has glossed over the fact that, since the early 2000s, the country’s ability to hold itself together has diminished. Furthermore, the broad powers of the High Representative were later found, by the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission, to be, “fundamentally incompatible with the democratic character of the state and the sovereignty of BiH,” setting up a fundamental conflict between the OHR and political actors wanting more free rein. 

As such, the unilateral decisions made by the High Representative were increasingly resisted to the point that, after the Venice Commission’s 2005 ruling, the OHR began to issue its decisions less frequently. The Crisis Group author’s point to two determinations made by the High Representative in 2011—suspending a Republika Srpska law claiming title to territory belonging to the state prior to the 1992-1995 war; and overturning a decision of the RS Central Electoral Commission that had been unduly favorable to Muslim Croat political parties—that led the Republika Srpska leadership to credibly threaten to hold an illegal referendum that year. The response by the EU’s High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton, averted disaster through the creation of a structured dialogue, which allowed Serb leaders to tell constituents that their concerns about the High Representative’s imposed, judiciary-affecting laws, would be addressed. However, as the Crisis Group report points out, this confrontation demonstrated the willingness of Republika Srpska officials to push things to extreme ends in order to get their way. 

Ultimately, the status quo between RS and the OHR was upended in July of 2021, when the outgoing High Representative, Valentin Inzko, made use of his powers by imposing a law that banned the denial of genocide and the glorification of war criminals from the 1992-1995 war. However, the move was extremely controversial, and came two years after Milorad Dodik told a conference discussing war crimes perpetrated during the ‘90s war that the Srebrenica massacre was, “something that does not exist.” Furthermore, Dodik’s statement was echoed in July of 2021, when a Republika Srpska-sponsored report attempted to cast doubt on whether thousands of Bosniaks, murdered by Serb forces in Srebrenica, were actually innocent civilians

The Bosnian Serb response to Inzko’s imposed law, however, was swift, with the RS parliament passing a law against implementation of the High Representative’s decision and another providing for up to fifteen years in prison for, “violating the reputation of the Republika Srpska.” Furthermore, in December 2021, the RS parliament passed resolutions revoking consent for the transfer of powers to the state in taxes, justice, and defense, tasking the entity government with drafting laws establishing its own authority in those areas. It also adopted a “Declaration on Constitutional Principles” which states that all laws and acts imposed by the Office of the High Representative are unconstitutional and orders the parliament to draft a new constitution for RS. However, under the Dayton agreement, constituent entity parliaments lack the jurisdiction to nullify such High Representative decisions, setting up a showdown between RS and then-incoming High Representative, Chirstian Schmidt. While the war in Ukraine has temporarily put Dodik’s secessionist plans on ice—as RS would need a great deal of Russian support in order to succeed in breaking away from Bosnia and Herzegovina—it is unlikely that even a thorough Russian defeat in Ukraine would put a complete damper on Dodik’s hopes for a Bosnian Serb home of his own in the future. 

Further damaging the chances of a peaceful resolution to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s issues is the long-running dispute between Bosniaks and Croats over electoral eligibility requirements for ethnic minorities as well as Croat demands for more “legitimate representation.” These major areas of dispute between Bosniaks and Croats result in the two sides being unable to unite against Serb separatism, further risking the future stability of the country. 

Ultimately, while the Crisis Group authors are correct to point out that the likelihood of a return to 1990s levels of violence in Bosnia and Herzegovina is unlikely—due to the fact that the youth do not possess the same kind of military training as the previous generation; reduced prevalence of heavy weapons compared to the pre-war period; and the fact that few areas of the country are claimed by one party but held by the other—it does not mean that armed conflict is impossible. Indeed, European apathy towards the growing instability in the Western Balkans risks exacerbating the situation. As then-outgoing High Representative, Valentin Inzko, pleaded during his last week in office in July 2021, “ I would really like to beg the European Union to inject a sense of urgency into this issue because people cannot wait forever. [The EU membership] perspective is too far away…The situation on the ground is not improving.” 

Kosovo and Serbia

In nearby Kosovo, the main issue remains the country’s prospects for recognition by Serbia. Currently, the two sides maintain few lines of communications, and suspicion and hostility is rampant, with a fall 2021 dispute between the two countries over changes to border regulations for vehicles with Serbian registration plates—which, “say that people entering Kosovo must change Serbian vehicle license plates for temporary Kosovo ones when entering the country – as drivers with Kosovo plates have had to do when entering Serbia for the past two decades,”—threatening to spark a conflict. 

The Crisis Group report notes that efforts to break the impasse between the two countries are stymied on several levels, with attempts to offer Serbia expedited EU membership stymied due to EU concerns over Serbia’s democratic backsliding; requests to expand the autonomy of Kosovo’s Serb minority resisted by Pristina; and controversial territory exchange proposals rejected by a majority of parliamentary parties in Kosovo. Furthermore, efforts to create an, “Association/Community of Serb majority municipalities in Kosovo,” have failed to achieve results, with Pristina viewing the association, “as a milder version of partition and as a weapon for Belgrade to undercut Kosovo’s statehood,” as Shpetim Gashi wrote in a June 2021 essay for the European Council on Foreign Relations. Finally, the Crisis Group authors point out that Kosovo has attempted to crack down on Serbs in Kosovo that the government views as having too close ties to the Serbian government. 

As was submitted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Heather A. Conley and Dejana Saric in a May 2021 brief, “the current iteration of the [Belgrade-Pristina] dialogue is at a stalemate because it was formed as a process predicated on mutual exchanges, and leaders are no longer interested in identifying things to trade,” and that Serbia will not recognize Kosovo’s independence without significant incentives. However, Kosovo, “believes it has already granted significant concessions to Serbia and therefore remains firmly against granting greater autonomy to its Serbian population.” As such, the CSIS authors argue, “there is no reason to think either country will move from their position in the near future.” 

While the license plate row has not yet flared into violence, it does demonstrate how even a small spark could quickly send Kosovar and Serbian troops flooding to the shared border. Further, while the presence of NATO peacekeeping troops reduces the risk of armed violence, it cannot fully eliminate that risk. However, as was explained by the Crisis Group authors, “the biggest risk in failing to resolve Kosovo’s status and put to rest its decades-long quarrel with Serbia is not so much that it will erupt in major violence, but that it will continue to fester.” If that continues, Russia—depending on how it emerges from its war in Ukraine—could use the issue to further drive a wedge between Serbia and the West, damaging regional stability and hurting Kosovo’s chances for EU integration—which its economy desperately needs

Tying together the region’s problems is the irredentism emanating from Serbia and its president Aleksandar Vučić, whose, “Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) government politically, financially, and culturally aids ultranationalist groups active in its neighboring countries,” as was noted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Richard Kraemer in a March 2022 report. Furthermore, Kraemer remarks, “the SNS government works in tandem with the Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC), a ceaselessly reliable opponent of greater European/transatlantic integration, socio-religious tolerance, and the recognition of Kosovo’s statehood,” with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s backing, “categorically integral to the Serbian government and church’s machinations.” 

A Better Transatlantic Response to the Western Balkans 

Bosnia and Herzegovina

As the Crisis Group report concludes, while EU and U.S. policies towards the region have long been built around the idea that the prospects of further Western integration were enough of an incentive to motivate significant changes in behavior and to moderate long standing disputes, recent events—as well as increasing Russian and Chinese interest in the region—have shown the folly of that course of thinking. The region’s states are little closer to their goal of EU accession, and while North Macedonia has recently joined NATO and resumed EU accession talks, it still remains far away from actual EU membership. 

Therefore, with the allure of accession diminished, the Crisis Group authors propose that the European Union take a rebalanced approach, treating crisis management in the region as well as accession talks as separate, but complementary efforts. In such a scenario, the EU and U.S. would work on programs that address the underlying causes of the instability plaguing the region, without relying solely on the carrot of EU accession. 

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, such a program would endeavor to reduce the levels of enmity between Bosniaks and Croats in the Federation, while pushing the two sides to unite on a common position towards Republika Srpska secessionist rhetoric, preventing a dissolution of the country. Part of such an endeavor would include international efforts to ensure that October’s upcoming elections are free and fair, as well as higher-level U.S. support for Bosniak and Croat leaders in reaching a compromise on their disputes. Ultimately, the Crisis Group authors argue that Western governments need to make clear that if Dodik’s government violates the Dayton accords, that they will break off contacts with the entity’s leadership, leaving it a pariah, with likely only Serbian and Russian direct support. 

However, even if elections go smoothly and Dodik’s secessionist instincts are reined in by the country’s other constituent entity, it is clear that the Dayton accord has run its course. Bosnia and Herzegovina needs a new constitution; one that specifically addresses and upgrades the rights of those that do not belong to one of the country’s three “constituent peoples.” While such reforms require a supermajority in both houses of Bosnian parliament—making them unlikely in the current political environment—the international community must still work to address the country’s unruly federal structure; the aforementioned constituent peoples framework; and the constituent entities’ veto rights. In attempting to push for these changes, the EU and U.S. will not only need to provide robust technical support for a new Bosnian constitutional framework, but they will need to strongly support political forces inside the country that are in favor of further Western integration. 

Percentage in Favor of Joining the EU by country, 2021/Source: https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2021/11/08/public-opinion-poll-in-the-western-balkans-on-the-eu-integration/

While it may seem like Bosnia is drifting away from the West and more towards China and Russia, in reality, polling data from February of 2020 showed that 76% of Bosnians wish to join the European Union and 63% want a close relationship with NATO. It is therefore up to the EU and U.S. to provide Bosnian leaders with the support, both political and economic, that they need to resolve the country’s differences, reform the constitution, and resume the path towards greater Western integration.

The Kosovo-Serbia Dispute

To attempt to resolve the Kosovo-Serbia dispute, the Crisis Group authors propose a multi-pronged approach, beginning with attempts to dial down the rhetorical temperature in Belgrade and Pristina. While the authors acknowledge that European outreach alone is unlikely to unlock the dispute between Belgrade and Pristina, they do argue that European Union interlocutors should encourage both sides to build goodwill by supporting the ethnic and religious minorities present in each of their territories. As part of good-will building efforts, they argue, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti would increase his visits to Serb villages and begin to give occasional speeches in Serbian, indicating his acceptance of the people and its language. Meanwhile, they argue that Belgrade should increase its outreach to the Albanian minority citizens living in the Preševo valley, who have been denied the right to vote and deleted from the country’s civil registry, working to improve Albanian-language education

Another step that could be taken by Kosovo’s international partners would be to support the country’s entry into those multilateral fora where a veto is not possible or a requirement for majority consensus is not required, such as the EU’s Council of Europe. As the Crisis Group authors note, joining the Council would extend the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights to Kosovo, demonstrating the country’s commitment to the rule of law. For its part, if Serbia wanted to demonstrate its seriousness about resolving the two sides’ disputes, it could permit Kosovo to finally join the Open Balkan Initiative, which it had committed to doing as part of the Kosovo-Serbia economic normalization agreement—which was signed in 2020—but has since backed away from out of concern that it would not be treated as an equal by Serbia. 

Additionally, more steps need to be taken to address recognition of Kosovar statehood. As has recently been written by Edward P. Joseph, Branislav Radeljic, Lulzim Peci, Iulia Joja, Jan Cingel, and Pol Vila Sarria in a report for the Wilson Center, “progress in the Balkans hinges on Serbia’s acceptance of the Western order for the region; and Serbia’s acceptance of the Western order hinges on the Kosovo position of the non-recognizing states.” While greater international pressure certainly needs to be put on non-recognizers like Spain and Slovakia, the Crisis Group authors are correct that the Kurti team in Kosovo has yet to make clear what his administration is ready to offer in exchange for concessions from Belgrade. As such, the international community should do more to press both sides to be clear on what their true red-lines really are and what can actually be negotiated.

The Crisis Group report then closes with an argument that the European Union needs to do more to strengthen its accession process. While the authors note that the European Commission has somewhat recently adopted a revised enlargement methodology—emphasizing top-level dialogue between EU and accession candidate leaders to strengthen buy-in through negotiations as well as greater access to EU funding to countries who along with EU policies before they accede to the Union—it still needs to do more to pull the process out of the proverbial mud. 

As Kai-Olaf Lang and Piotr Buras wrote for the European Council on Foreign Relations in a June 2022 policy brief, “the examples of Albania and North Macedonia are particularly pertinent. These countries were granted candidate status long ago, but, even after they met the necessary conditions, accession negotiations have still not begun.” Not only has the decision to proceed been, “held hostage to political games,” Lang and Buras write, but, “the negotiation process itself is tedious and overly bureaucratic,” with some EU enlargement critics using such stringent requirements as a way to block certain countries’ candidacies. 

Furthermore, despite the aforementioned 2020 reforms, European Council President Charles Michel had said in October of last year that, “there is an ongoing debate between the 27 on the Union’s capacity to integrate new member states.” While such vague statements does not necessarily mean that the accession process is a dead letter, it does mean that the EU—and the Western Balkans—might be best off, at least in the short term, offering a more intermediate form of association with WB6 countries. For instance, the Crisis Group authors note that Emmanuel Macron’s vision of a new European Political Community, which would aim to bring in Western Balkans countries on, “security, energy, transport, infrastructure investment, and free movement of people,” without being a formal part of the Union. However, Macron’s proposal has been extremely vague, with few concrete details on offer, and risks creating second-class European citizens of countries it has been recommended for, such as Kosovo, Ukraine, Georgia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

Final Thoughts

In all, the situation in the Western Balkans has been bad for over a decade, and is quickly getting worse. Serbian irredentism and its drift towards European competitors; Bosnian Serb secessionism; and Kosovar desires for international recognition all threaten to return widespread conflict to the region for the first time in nearly thirty years. If Europeans—as well as the U.S.—wish to avoid a conflagration in the Western Balkans in the coming years, they need to do more to offer better carrots and stronger sticks to the governments of the region. The U.S. has already stepped up its efforts to sanction those who impede implementation of regional peace agreements, and the European Union should consider stepping up its economic coercion to spoilers in Banja Luka, Belgrade, and Pristina to encourage them to make a genuine effort at compromise or undermine their power if they do not. Moreover, if the U.S. wants to step up on this issue, the Biden administration should consider appointing a high-level political figure with close connections to the president that can become a regional envoy and advocate for Euro-Atlantic interests in the region. A figure such as former Senator Chris Dodd, a close Biden ally who has already served in a similar role in Latin America, or former Senator Barbara Boxer, another close former Biden ally who has served on the Senate Foreign Relations committee, might be ideal because of their perceived closeness to the president. 

Meanwhile, the EU’s enlargement policy, despite its recent updates, is stuck in limbo, with the most recent conclusions of the European Council speaking of a “gradual integration between the European Union and [the Western Balkans]…in a reversible and merit-based manner.” If the EU is moving more towards Macron’s proposed European Political Community, then the entire enlargement experiment risks breaking down, as a multi-tiered Europe might see, “Western Balkans countries run the risk of being forever stuck in the waiting room. They could orbit the EU center of gravity but without crossing the line from nonmembership to membership. As a result, the incentive to conform with Europe’s conditions—whether in the area of democracy, economic governance, or foreign policy—would diminish,” as was recently noted by Carnegie Europe’s Dimitar Bechev. 

The European Union—if it truly wishes to see its enlargement policy throw open the doors of Europe to all of its prospective continental members—needs to change its accession process in a fundamental way. With the EU’s requirement for consensus in accession talks, and the endless opportunities for obstruction that it brings, the EU’s own member states are often the main stumbling blocks towards expanding the Union. 

To be abundantly clear, a failure to extend EU membership to Western Balkans states will not only renege on its prior commitments to the people in those countries, but it will ultimately undermine the European Union’s own security, as instability in the Western Balkans is not only unlikely to stay confined to the country it begins in, but would likely be exploited by Russia and China. 

As Dimitar Bechev stated in his June piece for Carnegie Europe, while, “democracy, prosperity, and the rule of law won’t flow automatically from membership, and much will depend on domestic conditions and dynamics,” that, “being integrated into the EU is a necessary condition to advance what the union itself considers a core mission: spreading its values and principles to countries and societies on its fringes in the interest of political stability and economic growth.”

Bechev is correct in that while EU accession will not solve all of the woes facing Western Balkans countries, drawing out the accession process indefinitely will certainly make those problems worse. The EU must provide Western-oriented politicians in the region with enough potential benefits that they have the rhetorical ammunition to convince their fellow citizens and political figures that vital economic and political reforms must be completed and EU accession pursued. Without the carrot of further European integration, the Western Balkans will only drift further away from Western values and towards instability and sectarian disputes. While the EU has so far avoided a serious conflagration in its southeast, it has historically run into trouble when it ignored growing nationalist sentiment in the region. Therefore, a reconfigured Euro-Atlantic approach to the Western Balkans is a necessary precondition for future European stability and security.

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The 2022 NATO Strategic Concept: A Troubling Lack of Specificity

July 8, 2022

With the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia and China deepening their ties, rising nationalism and authoritarianism around the globe, and increasing incidences of extremist terrorism on the Euro-Atlantic periphery, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is facing one of the sternest tests of both its cohesion and purpose since at least the end of the Cold War. Furthermore, the past few years had seen Alliance cohesion become strained, as transatlantic political cohesion frayed in the face of rising nationalism and authoritarianism from within the Alliance itself. 

To see if the Alliance is able to surmount these difficulties, it is perhaps best to begin with a look at last week’s NATO summit in Madrid, with a specific focus placed on the release of the long-anticipated NATO 2022 Strategic Concept—the Alliance’s first since the Lisbon summit in 2010. The document—which outlines NATO’s core tasks as: deterrence and defense; crisis prevention and management; and cooperative security—is a statement of NATO values and commitments over the next decade. However, it is one that, in the end, fails to do much of substance outside of refocusing the Alliance’s threat perceptions towards Russia, China, and the Euro-Atlantic periphery. 

The 2022 NATO Strategic Concept is broken down into four main sections covering: the Alliance’s principles; its present strategic environment; three subsections dealing with NATO’s core tasks; and a brief statement of future aspirations. It begins by arguing that the key purpose of the alliance is to ensure collective defense of its members, which are bound by common values. The Strategic Concept states that Allies will not only focus on enhancing resilience and their technological edge over peer competitors, but that Alliance members will work together to address issues like climate change, human security, and implementation of the women, peace, and security agenda. 

The Strategic Concept then proceeds to an examination of today’s contested strategic environment, specifically noting that unlike in 2010’s analysis, the Euro-Atlantic area is not at peace, with Russian aggression shattering the norms that underlie the European security order. The document further notes the continuing rise of authoritarians around the globe, many of whom are investing in military capabilities, including the development of nuclear weapons and associated advanced delivery systems. NATO’s new strategy document notes that these authoritarian governments not only invest in strengthening their own military capacity, but they also interfere in Allied democratic processes, targeting its citizens through the use of hybrid tactics

The Strategic Concept therefore situates Russia as the Alliance’s most direct threat, arguing that under Putin, the country looks to establish spheres of influence, using conventional, cyber, and hybrid means available at its disposal. Furthermore, with its global reach, Russia has the ability to destabilize NATO’s East, South, and High North. While the 2022 concept argues that the Alliance does not wish to confront or threaten Russia, it says that its members will continue to strengthen deterrence, enhance resilience, and support their partners in order to counter malign Russian interference in the Euro-Atlantic periphery. 

Beyond Russia, the Strategic Concept also notes the threats posed by transnational terrorism; conflict and instability in the Middle East and North Africa; cyber threats; and China’s increasing ambitions and coercive policies. While remaining open to engagement with China, the document makes clear that China seeks to subvert the rules-based international order, especially in areas such as human rights

Finally, the document closes its discussion of the present strategic environment by noting that the proliferation of emerging and dangerous technologies (EDTs) amongst allies and competitors will alter the future nature of conflict, as technology continues its ever-increasing impact on battlefield success; that the erosion of the arms control and nonproliferation architecture harms strategic stability; and that climate change is a threat multiplier, exacerbating conflict, fragility, and geopolitical competition across the globe. 

Accomplishing NATO’s Core Tasks

The Strategic Concept then proceeds to outline how the Alliance will act on its core tasks of deterrence and defense; crisis prevention and management; and cooperative security. It is here, however, where the document, which was vague in its general outline of the problems facing NATO, really shows its limitations. While filled with buzzy phrases like “360-degree approach”, the overall document is far too light on the types of specifics that would make this a truly useful strategic document. Indeed, if the new Strategic Concept is, as was submitted by the Stimson Center’s Sydney Tucker, “the most significant deliverable from the NATO Summit” in Madrid, then the Alliance may well be in a great deal of trouble. 

As was argued in an excellent piece on the war in Ukraine by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Anthony Cordesman from April of this year, “a 30-country alliance cannot be revitalized by setting broad strategic goals that are not based on some form of net assessment and that do not measure current and projected capability by country in terms of mission and threat.” However, that is exactly what the Strategic Concept’s three sections on executing the Alliance’s core tasks essentially amount to. The document is full of vague generalities that, while good-intentioned, are ultimately worthless when it comes to ensuring that NATO is able to meet its goals. Furthermore, despite the NATO 2030 Reflection Group’s recommendation that, “NATO should consider creating a new net assessment office, composed of both military and civilian staff and reporting directly to the Secretary General, with the mission of examining NATO’s strategic environment on the basis of agreed threats and challenges across the whole spectrum of military and non-military tools,” the Strategic Concept does not seem to be based on any kind of holistic assessment of the tools and capabilities belonging to both Alliance members and their potential adversaries. 

Instead, what the document presents is a series of more generalized goals for the Alliance, with strong adjectives seemingly substituting for real strategy. For instance, under the core task of deterrence and defense, the concept notes that NATO will, “employ military and non-military tools in a proportionate, coherent and integrated way to respond to all threats to our security in the manner, timing and in the domain of our choosing,” without being clear what “proportionate” even means in such a context beyond the obvious definition in international law. Furthermore, the document does not define what type of “non-military tools” need to be available in order for NATO to respond to a potential security threat. 

The remainder of the section on deterrence and defense is littered with similar usage of unspecific language. For instance, it argues that NATO, “will deter and defend forward with robust in-place, multi-domain, combat-ready forces, enhanced command and control arrangements, prepositioned ammunition and equipment and improved capacity and infrastructure to rapidly reinforce any Ally,” without outlining the specific types of troops that would need to be made available to ensure that forces are “multi-domain” nor does it make clear what would need to be done to ensure that troops are “combat-ready”. Furthermore, when it says that NATO, “will adjust the balance between in-place forces and reinforcement to strengthen deterrence and the Alliance’s ability to defend,” it does nothing to specify a minimum troop number that will need to be forward-deployed in specific countries in order to be ready to deter or defend against an enemy attack. 

While these critiques may seem like pedantic nit-picking, statements that NATO, “will expedite our digital transformation, adapt the NATO Command Structure for the information age and enhance our cyber defenses, networks and infrastructure,” are essentially meaningless without a specific definition of the types of equipment and capabilities that will need to be acquired by Allies in order for the Alliances cyber defenses to be deemed “secure”. 

While it is certainly laudable that the document pledges to enhance readiness, integrate command structures, uphold maritime security, make secure use of space and cyberspace, pursue a more coherent approach to building Alliance-wide resilience, and invest in defenses against chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats, without an accompanying analysis of how NATO’s main competitors—Russia and China—stack up in those areas relative to the Alliance, the document is really nothing more than a restatement of Alliance values.

The only area in which the document has anything approaching the level of specificity required to make this a useful strategy is in the area of cooperative security. That sections reaffirms the Alliance’s commitment to its Open Door policy, resists third party interference in membership decisions, calls for the continued integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine into the Euro-Atlantic community, and argues for enhanced NATO-EU cooperation on resilience, climate change, EDTs, human security, the Women, Peace, and Security agenda, and military mobility. 

While a political document that gets all thirty NATO countries operating off of a similar political script is valuable in a world where consensus among Allies is getting harder and harder to achieve, the Strategic Compass, as written, will never be much more than that. Furthermore, there is a worry that the document’s lack of specificity— which carried over from the 2010 document—will permit Alliance some members to continue to be lackadaisical in their approach to the changing security environment. Specifically, the failures of the 2010 document to recognize the rising threat emanating from Russia may end up being repeated in the 2022 document with the overall failure to concretely outline the elements of a military deterrence posture in Eastern Europe that will give Putin pause before considering a potential attack. 

New Concepts and Old Problems

New NATO Force Model/Source: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/220629-infographic-new-nato-force-model.pdf
New NATO Force Model/Source: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/220629-infographic-new-nato-force-model.pdf

While the Madrid Summit did come with some particulars to back up the language of the Strategic Concept, such as increasing the number of enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) battlegroups in Eastern Europe from four to eight and increasing the NATO Response Force (NRF) from 40,000 to 300,000 troops—which will now be held at higher levels of readiness—it was generally light on concrete details. Furthermore, there are already indications that some Alliance members doubt whether NATO can pull off such a new model, which would require much greater financial and troop commitments from member states. As the Atlantic Council’s Chris Skaluba remarked, “NATO deserves the benefit of the doubt until details are clearer, but there was some skepticism on the ground in Madrid about the ability to balance clear short-term deterrence requirements with this new, longer-term vision.”

Source: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/729449/EPRS_ATA(2022)729449_EN.pdf
Source: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/729449/EPRS_ATA(2022)729449_EN.pdf

But the problems with the Strategic Concept do not stop there. As noted by the Royal United Services Institutes’ (RUSI) Ed Arnold in a July 1 commentary, the Strategic Compass’ identification of Russia as the primary regional threat is commendable, but it fails to provide a, “vision and a realistic timeframe for understanding the parameters of the NATO-Russia confrontation.” As Arnold notes, the documents that historically buttressed the European security order since the end of the Cold War—from the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 to the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997—are all but defunct. Thus, the Strategic Concept’s inability to outline which elements of the post-Cold War European security architecture remain valid and vital to the future relationship with Russia is a major failure. With the hope that the war in Ukraine will not be a conflict that drags on for a decade or more, a more forward-looking strategic planning document should have more to say about how to handle Russia once it is hopefully defeated in Ukraine. 

As was pointed out by the RUSI commentary, yet another troubling example of the Strategic Concept’s troubling lack of specificity is that—while arguing that a strong Ukraine is vital for Euro-Atlantic stability—the document not only fails to outline exactly how Alliance members will increase NATO common funding to cover the increase in eFP battalions and the NATO Response Force; it also fails to grapple with how the organization’s membership will sustain funding to rebuild Ukraine despite inflationary pressures and the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Bringing Back NATO’s Sword and Shield?

If the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept is still far too vague to be genuinely functional as a strategic document, it might therefore be useful to examine some recommendations on how it could be made more useful. One recommended approach comes from CSIS’ Sean Monaghan, whose June 2022, “Resetting NATO’s Defense and Deterrence: The Sword and the Shield Redux,” argues for the Alliance to bring back some valuable elements from prior strategic concepts in order to meet today’s challenges. 

Monaghan chronicles the history of NATO’s seven Strategic Concepts, examining how the Alliance moved from a strategy of deterrence by punishment—through the threat of the use of U.S. nuclear weapons—to a more mixed strategy, combining deterrence by punishment through the use of strategic bombing and conventional military power with deterrence by denial through effective forward defense. These strategies were later combined into what was called “The Sword” and “The Shield”. The concept, which dates to the late 1950s, saw the sword representing the, “nuclear retribution of the Strategic Air Command, missiles and other weapons systems capable of reaching deep into the Soviet Union,” as a contemporaneous New York Times report noted. Meanwhile, NATO’s shield consisted of, “land, air and sea units [protecting] Europe from being overrun while the sword is being unsheathed and is striking at the vitals of the enemy.” In essence, the sword represented deterrence by punishment, whereas the shield represented deterrence by denial through forward defense. 

NATO's Seven Previous Strategic Concepts w/Policy Goals/Source: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220628_Monaghan_ResettingNATO_DefenseDeterrence.pdf?j73cwvXqZmuKo5VBYY.xPMp3Z7X2y7Yx#page=3
NATO’s Seven Previous Strategic Concepts w/Policy Goals/Source: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220628_Monaghan_ResettingNATO_DefenseDeterrence.pdf?j73cwvXqZmuKo5VBYY.xPMp3Z7X2y7Yx#page=3

Monaghan notes that the change in NATO strategy arose from a growing nuclear parity between the U.S. and Soviet Union, as well as the Berlin and Cuban crises in the late 1950s and early 1960s. These events led some individuals, such as U.S. Defense Secretary Robert McNamara to conclude that nuclear superiority did little to deter and deal with problems short of all-out nuclear war. A reliance on massive retaliation ultimately undermined the deterrence architecture, however, because it put the onus on NATO to decide whether to begin an all-out nuclear war—a step Soviet leaders realized the West would be unwilling to take—thus leaving a deterrence gap. In McNamara’s estimation, only a stronger non-nuclear posture would make up for this deficiency in Western will. 

Thus, the fourth NATO Strategic Concept outlined that, should deterrence fail and Russian aggression towards Eastern Europe occur, that there were three types of response options open to NATO. These included direct defense, or, “physically preventing the enemy from taking what he wants.” The argument was that, “full options for direct defence exist when NATO can successfully counter any aggression, at whatever place, time, level and duration it occurs,” and that the forward deployment of troops on land and at sea is the best deterrent. Another type of response option would be deliberate escalation, which, “seeks to defend aggression by deliberately raising but where possible controlling, the scope and intensity of combat, making the cost and risk disproportionate to the aggressors’ objectives and the threat of nuclear response progressively more imminent.” Elements of deliberate escalation included opening more conventional battlefield fronts; the demonstration or selective use of nuclear weapons; or even selective nuclear strikes against suitable military targets. Finally, the third, and most escalatory option, would be a general nuclear response, which, “contemplates massive nuclear strikes against the total nuclear threat, other military targets, and urban-industrial targets by required.”

To bolster NATO’s direct defense “shield”, the fourth Strategic Concept therefore called for, “sufficient ground, sea and air forces in a high state of readiness, committed to NATO for prompt, integrated action in times of tension or against any limited or major aggression.” This required a capability for rapid, massive reinforcement of NATO’s forward posture in Eastern Europe, not too unlike today’s NATO Readiness Initiative (NRI). 

Monaghan notes that however successful the Cold War-era Strategic Concepts were, after the 1990s, the Alliance moved away from deterrence as NATO’s primary purpose, focusing instead on a range of tasks in and around its periphery, including: crisis management, conflict prevention, and cooperative security. However, the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 seemed to alert decision makers as to how badly Vladimir Putin had undermined the Alliance’s deterrence policy, necessitating a return to Cold War-era NATO policy. As such, Monaghan argues that it is time for a return of NATO’s sword and shield. 

Just as RUSI’s Ed Arnold said that the 2022 Strategic Concept lacked a realistic timeframe for understanding the NATO-Russia confrontation, Monaghan argues that NATO should turn to the Alliance’s first Strategic Concept, which argued that as, “precise Soviet intentions are not known and cannot be predicted with reliable accuracy,” that, “for military planning purposes…it is essential to consider maximum intentions and capabilities.” In addition, in order to revitalize NATO’s sword and shield, Monaghan argues that if the NATO assessment of Russian intentions are similar to NATO’s past assessments of the Soviet Union, then the Alliance should re-adopt its combination of robust strategic nuclear forces to deter attack along, coupled with a forward deployment of significant numbers of NATO troops to Eastern Europe. However, Monaghan is careful to note that in resurrecting NATO’s sword and shield, a number of modernization considerations would need to be made to update the strategy, including: asking whether NATO’s strategic nuclear forces are resilient to threats from EDTs; what role total defense might play in deterring both conventional and hybrid attacks; and what role does NATO assistance to non-Alliance members support its deterrence efforts. 

Monaghan’s sword and shield concept rests on the idea that in a world where Russian intentions are increasingly unpredictable, nuclear weapons are simply not enough to deter a potential threat to Eastern Europe since their deterrence effect relies on a belief that the West will preemptively use them. As such, NATO will need to ask itself if it has the financial and political strength to do what is necessary to rebuild not only its nuclear sword, but its massive, forward-deployed, deterrence shield. 

Military Mobility, Readiness, and Deterrence by Denial

One of the biggest questions raised by both the 2022 Strategic Concept and Monaghan’s revitalized sword and shield for NATO is how the Alliance will meet the goal of resuscitating its strategy of deterrence by denial. While the 2022 Strategic Compass calls for expanding both the NATO Response Force and the Alliance’s enhanced Forward Presence battalions in Eastern Europe, it fails to address enduring challenges that prior strategies were unable to overcome—the thorniest of which are Europe and the U.S.’ ongoing military mobility challenges. While military mobility issues in Europe have been addressed in these pages a number of times, it is worth noting how they specifically impact NATO’s new Strategic Concept. As stated by former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Curtis Scaparotti, to an Atlantic Council virtual event in April of 2020, NATO has, “looked at rapid deployment as being really our strategy for deterrence and defense in Europe,” noting that, “to do that we have to have ready forces, we have to set conditions with equipment forward…[and] we also have to reinforce at the speed of conflict. For that to work you have to have mobility available.” 

NATO’s 2018 Readiness Initiative—which is also sometimes known as the “four thirties”—called for Allies to be able to deliver thirty battalions, thirty air squadrons, and thirty naval combat vessels to a potential front in Eastern Europe within thirty days. However, while NATO states that Alliance members had, by 2020, “generated more than ninety per cent of the forces required,” not enough has been done to enable the rapid flow of such forces to a hypothetical future front in the east. 

As was remarked on in a 2021 Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) report from Heinrich Brauss, Ben Hodges, and Julian Lindley-French, “since the end of the Cold War much of the road, rail, air, sea, and port infrastructure that enabled NATO forces to move rapidly across Western Europe has diminished, together with the facilities that also enabled the safe transit and secure reception of U.S. and Canadian forces.” Furthermore, the CEPA authors note that, “in spite of recent progress…Europe is by no means close to meeting the military mobility challenge…despite there being an implicit acknowledgement that rapid and assured military mobility (together with Europe’s ability to act as an effective first responder) is central to credible defense and deterrence.” 

What makes these issues more troubling is the fact that—as was pointed out in the CEPA report, as well as a 2020 report from the Atlantic Council—NATO was already encountering difficulties in meeting the NRI’s goals of flowing thirty battalions of troops to Eastern Europe in a potential conflict scenario. Therefore, it raises fundamental questions about how a NATO Response Force of 300,000—ten times the amount of troops the original NATO Readiness Initiative calls for—could possibly flow into Europe in a short enough timeframe to make a difference in a potential conflict.

While the RAND Corporation’s now famous 2016 wargame showed Russian forces entering Tallinn and Riga within sixty hours of the start of a potential conflict between NATO and Russia, those hypotheses must, of course, be fundamentally reexamined after Russian failures to advance swiftly in Ukraine. However, it does raise the inescapable point that any potential conflict between NATO and Russia will likely take place directly next to Russian territory—as well as Russian-controlled Belarus—giving Russia the mobility advantage in the early days and weeks of a fight. Furthermore, while the 300,000-strong NATO Response Force will undoubtedly consist of large numbers of European troops, U.S. forces will likely make up somewhere between ⅓-½ of the NRF troop commitment, meaning that a large portion of the force will have a much more difficult logistical challenge than simply traversing continental Europe. 

More than 40 guardsmen from 1-171st General Support Aviation Battalion, Georgia Army National Guard along with five UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters arrived in the belly of a giant C-5 Galaxy aircraft July 27 in Tbilisi, Georgia to provide support for exercise Noble Partner/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/usarmyeurope_images/42972584814/
More than 40 guardsmen from 1-171st General Support Aviation Battalion, Georgia Army National Guard along with five UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters arrived in the belly of a giant C-5 Galaxy aircraft July 27 in Tbilisi, Georgia to provide support for exercise Noble Partner/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/usarmyeurope_images/42972584814/

Further complicating the picture for U.S. land forces making the long trip to a potential front in the Baltic states or Poland is that it is highly questionable as to whether those troops would have the right equipment needed in order to immediately enter the fight. As was noted back in the early spring, the U.S. Army had, for the first time, activated its Army Prepositioned Stock-2 sites, tasking the 405th Field Support Brigade to full equip an entire armored brigade combat team (ABCT) with the main battle tanks, armored fighting vehicles, light tactical vehicles, tucks, generators, and the rest of the unit’s supporting equipment. However, while a laudable achievement, the fact that the Army was boasting about its ability to outfit a unit of around 4,500 soldiers is concerning when one considers the fact that in a potential fight between Russia and NATO’s Response Force, such logistics units would likely need an ability to equip somewhere between 95,000-145,000 more U.S. troops within a very short time period. 

This reinforcement will be further challenged by the fact that, “even if all the MSC Surge Fleet and MARAD Ready Reserve Force ships are able to activate, DoD may fall short of the cargo capacity it needs for potential conflict scenarios,” as was noted in a 2020 report from Bryan Clark, Timothy A. Walton, and Adam Lemon of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Adding to these reinforcement challenges is the fact that, according to a 2021 Government Accountability Office (GAO) review, while the Defense Department has conducted or sponsored eleven classified and sensitive studies on the ability of the U.S. military to transport equipment and personnel in a contested operational environment, it has not tracked the number of recommendations that have actually been implemented into Department planning. More specifically, the review asserts that, “training requirements for the U.S. citizen mariners who are contracted to crew surge-sealift ships that might have to operate in contested environments have not been evaluated and updated as appropriate,” noting that, “because sealift accounts for the majority of military equipment that is transported for major military operations, the ability of sealift to operate in a contested environment is critical to supporting the U.S. military’s global operations.”

Furthermore, as was elucidated by Vice Admiral Ricky L. Williamson, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Fleet Readiness and Logistics at the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, in a statement before the House Armed Services Committee back in March of 2020, “over the next 25 years, ~60% of the sealift fleet will reach end of service life.” In essence, not only does the U.S. have a present inability to seamlessly deliver troops and equipment to Europe in the event of a potential conflict with Russia, but that capability will degrade going forward unless there is a fundamental recapitalization of the U.S. strategic sealift fleet. What’s more, while the EU has approved €330 million to adapt the Trans-European Transport network for dual civilian and defense use, large infrastructure projects typically have long lead times, raising questions about whether such modernization projects would be completed in time for a potential NATO conflict with Russia—especially if one emerges out of the war in Ukraine. Ultimately, not only would these challenges undermine the NATO Readiness Initiative and the NATO Response Force’s deterrence value, they highlight a major overall deficiency in NATO’s new Strategic Concept. 

Finally, there is the issue of interoperability, or the lack thereof in some Eastern European states. As noted by CSIS’ Anthony Cordesman in a February 2022 report, “most of the former Warsaw Pact states…have barely begun effective conversion to forces that are fully interoperable with NATO forces, and they have generally failed to maintain anything approaching their former strength when they were supported and supplied by the [former Soviet Union].” Furthermore, Cordesman continues that, “the progress the U.S. and NATO’s older members have made in being able to rapidly deploy major forces forward to deter and defend on the territory of NATO’s new members is also generally limited. NATO has made some collective improvements here, but many older European members now lack much of their former ability to deploy forward, and their force posture lacks many elements of the readiness and sustainability to take such action.” What’s more, a July 2020 commentary by active-duty U.S. Army officer Josh Campbell for War on the Rocks, notes that, despite U.S. pressure, many European armies face gaps in their conventional capabilities, which, “could limit the quality of forces assigned to the NATO Readiness Initiative.” Furthermore, Campbell states that as NATO member states, “use different command and control systems, communications devices, and specialty equipment,” there are issues of interoperability at the tactical level that make it difficult for such forces to quickly integrate into a coherent NATO fighting force in a potential conflict. 

Whereas Campbell argues that NATO needs to establish a, “clear definition of readiness for forces allocated under the NATO Readiness Initiative and adopt organizational structures that allow these units to plan and train together regularly in peacetime,”—and the 2022 Strategic Concept does make three references to improving the military interoperability of NATO forces— the document’s overall lack of specificity as to how it will achieve that goal is, once again, a glaring error. 

Closing Thoughts

In sum, while the 2022 Strategic Concept is full of big, broad ideas about how to improve Euro-Atlantic defense, it is troublingly light on detail. Furthermore, the strategy document fails to address some of the most basic questions regarding how exactly it will meet major goals such as creating a 300,000-strong Response Force that is able to credibly deter a potential aggressor in NATO’s eastern periphery. Not only that, but the Strategic Concept does little to illuminate how the Alliance intends to navigate the post-Ukraine war landscape with Russia, especially in the possible event of Ukraine’s defeat or even a regime change in Russia following a Russian defeat. Finally, the document contains few verifiable metrics with which to measure the ultimate success or failure of the Strategic Concept over its likely decade-long lifespan. 

Ultimately, while such strategy documents are vital, they should not simply be generalized statements of principle, but rather, clearly articulated action plans that demonstrate how the Alliance is going to get from today’s problems to tomorrow’s solutions. Without a net assessment of respective capabilities, a coherent picture of the post-war relationship with Russia, and an understanding of the Alliance’s military mobility deficiencies, the Strategic Concept is a strategy document with little strategy and it lacks the coherent details that would enable it to transform its words into any kind of coherent reality.

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The Perils of a New U.S.-Saudi Strategic Compact

July 1, 2022

According to most media reports, President Biden will be heading to the Middle East later next month—making stops in Israel, the West Bank, and finally Saudi Arabia—where he will allegedly be looking to mend fences with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after calling the kingdom a “pariah” on the campaign trail, and vowing to end U.S. weapons sales to the country. The trip comes as oil prices have hovered near $120 per barrel—a huge jump from an average of $71 per barrel in December 2021—and with Saudi Arabia looking unlikely to boost output anytime soon. As such, the Biden administration is in a tough spot—with prices at the pump for the average consumer remaining above $5 per gallon—forcing the administration to request a suspension of the federal gas tax despite no guarantee that the savings would actually be passed on to consumers. In all, the Biden administration is in a political quandary, with mid-term elections looming this fall. As such, there is a lot of anticipation surrounding the President’s upcoming visit to Riyadh, and calls for Biden to use the occasion of the trip to reset the U.S.-Saudi relationship.

It is in that environment in which, on June 22, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) released, “The Case for a New U.S.-Saudi Strategic Compact,” by Steven A. Cook and Martin S. Indyk. The report—which recognizes that the U.S.-Saudi relationship has fundamentally changed since Franklin Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz Al Saud first agreed to a partnership back in February of 1945—argues that even as the U.S. attempts to draw down its presence in the Middle East in order to “pivot to Asia”, Saudi Arabia has actually become more important, not less. Cook and Indyk state that the U.S. needs to, “recognize that during the decades-long transition away from fossil fuels, Saudi Arabia’s role in stabilizing oil prices will remain critical,” and that, “Saudi Arabia would need to recognize that American support for its security will require greater respect for American interests and values.” In short, they argue, “a fundamental renovation of the basic bargain that has lasted more or less for eight decades is required.”

However, while Cook and Indyk are certainly correct that a reevaluation of the relationship is something that the Biden administration should be seriously pursuing, their arguments that the U.S. should make sacrifices around its values in order to avoid losing influence in Saudi Arabia and the region are ultimately unpersuasive, as the report fails to place its advocacy of rapprochement in the proper context. While it is certainly true that the U.S. still remains affected by Middle East insecurity and the concomitant fluctuations in oil and gas prices, Cook and Indyk’s analysis places too much emphasis on what the U.S. needs from Saudi Arabia and not enough on what the kingdom needs from the U.S. 

Therefore, to better understand how the Biden administration should handle its upcoming meeting with the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia—and the potential drawbacks to what Cook and Indyk propose—it is best to start with a brief review of how the authors view the U.S.-Saudi relationship, historically, as well as look at their recommendations on how to proceed. 

The Origins of the U.S.-Saudi Arabia Relationship

Cook and Indyk begin their report with a brief assessment of the relationship over its nearly eighty years of existence. They note that, from the start, the relationship has always been fundamentally transactional, with the U.S. providing the Saudi royal family promises of security for the kingdom in exchange for the continual flow of oil needed for American industry. However, while simple on paper, that arrangement has not always been smooth. To that end, the authors note the Saudi involvement in the Arab oil embargo following the 1973 Arab-Israeli War (Yom Kippur War) which saw Arab producers cut off exports to the U.S. to protest U.S. military support for Israel in the war against Egypt and Syria. 

However, this period was followed by a long period of rapprochement in the late 1970s and early 1980s as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan prompted U.S. President Jimmy Carter to proclaim the “Carter Doctrine”, which stated that, “an attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.”  

The authors note that, following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the CIA, together with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI), and Saudi intelligence services worked to fund, arm, and equip the Afghan mujahideen via a program called Operation Cyclone, which saw Saudi Arabia commit to match every U.S. dollar spent fighting the Soviets. However, it should be noted that while the bulk of Saudi funding went to arms purchases, “the remainder was distributed as direct cash payments among the leaders of the Peshawar Parties and influential clerics, politicians and commanders by Prince Turki and the Saudi embassy in Islamabad,” and that, “out of the Peshawar Parties the strictly fundamentalist, Wahhabi-prone Ittehad-e Islami bara-ye Azadi-ye Afghanistan (Islamic Union for the Freedom of Afghanistan), led by Abdurrasul Sayyaf, and the militant Islamist Hezb-e Islami-ye Afghanistan (Islamic Party of Afghanistan), under the leadership of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, emerged as the key clients of the Kingdom’s Afghan policy and received the bulk of the direct official donations.” Yet another key player the Saudis worked with in Afghanistan was Osama bin Laden, who used his money and experience in the construction trade to build a series of bases where mujahideen fighters could be trained by Pakistani and American advisors. 

The 1980s saw the U.S.-Saudi relationship blossom further, with the Saudis quietly supporting Iraq against their enemy, Iran; and with the U.S. providing weapons, military advice, battlefield intelligence, and diplomatic support to Iraq in order to counter the likelihood of Iranian victory. However, things began to turn sour with the events surrounding the release of the U.S. hostages being held at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. Reagan’s deal with Iran to provide the country with weapons in exchange for hostages being held in Lebanon—as well as to counter growing Soviet influence inside Iran—saw Riyadh become disillusioned that the U.S. would assist the Iranian war effort despite the two sides ongoing enmity. 

In spite of this brief period of dissatisfaction, the August 2, 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait—which saw Baghdad move approximately 100,000 troops to the border of Saudi Arabia, opening up the possibility of invasion—was the catalyst to turn the relationship back around. In addition to the troop buildup, contemporaneous reports noted that Iraqi aircraft in southern Iraq were observed loading chemical weapons onto aircraft, and that U.S. officials believed that the move was done as a threat to both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia not to intervene. In response to the threat, Saudi Arabia reached out to the U.S., who quickly dispatched a few brigades—including one from the 82nd Airborne and elements of the 101st Airborne. Thomas L. McNaugher of the Brookings Institution noted at the time that the deployment was, “intended to reassure Saudi Arabia that any attack would precipitate a war with the United States.” In sum, the U.S. would deploy an expeditionary force of over 500,000 Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines to Saudi Arabia as part of Operations Desert Shield and Storm.

After the war, however, the relationship would again take a turn for the worse under President Clinton, especially as Crown Prince Abdullah became frustrated by the administration’s inability to forge a final peace after the Oslo Accords. Relations were further damaged with the recalcitrance of Saudi Minister of Interior Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz and his grudging cooperation into the U.S. investigation of the Khobar Towers bombing in 1996, which raised questions about the complicity of Saudi Shiite extremists. Tensions between the two sides were further inflamed with the outbreak of the Second Intifada in 2000, when Saudi Arabia felt that the Bush White House gave Israel a green-light to respond to the uprising with unrestrained violence. While the relationship was somewhat smoothed by President Bush’s subsequent public support for a Palestinian state, it showed that the U.S.-Saudi relationship could grow fragile even under a Republican in the White House.

Post 9/11

With fifteen of the nineteen hijackers possessing Saudi citizenship, the 9/11 attacks saw public support for the U.S.-Saudi relationship nosedive as some of the public, as Saudi Arabia went from a net +1 positive rating to a -37 negative rating between September 2001 and February 2002. Furthermore, the U.S.’ 2003 invasion of Iraq aggravated the Saudis, who viewed Saddam Hussein as a necessary counterweight to Iran and saw the U.S. invasion as greatly expanding Iran’s influence in Iraq at the Saudi’s expense. As was written by David Ottaway of the Wilson Center, during this period, “for the first time, the U.S. government became extremely critical of the Saudi educational system and the kingdom’s ultraconservative Wahhabi religious establishment. The White House and Congress even pressed for radical changes in the kingdom’s monarchical rule.” Furthermore, in Cairo in June of 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that the U.S.’ pursuit of stability at the expense of democracy in the Middle East was over, stating that the U.S. was going to support, “the democratic aspirations of all people,” in the region. The Saudi response to which was, “ shock and anger. Crown Prince Abdullah…huddled together with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to plot a common defense and denounce Bush’s freedom agenda,” noting that Arab governments would follow their own path in keeping with their, ‘Arab identity.’” 

The relationship again soured under the Obama administration, which openly supported the Arab Spring movements and called for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step down in the face of widespread protests against his rule. As such, King Abdullah began to fear that in the event of a potential revolt in his own country, that the U.S. President would demand that he leave. Furthermore, as was noted by the Gulf Research Center’s Shahram Chubin in a 2012 paper, “the differing reactions of Iran and Saudi Arabia to the Arab Spring have further exacerbated the Iran-Saudi rivalry,” with a key factor being Iranian involvement in Iraq triggering concerns about the extension of Iran’s influence into Iraq. While the Obama administration vetoed the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, Congress overrode his veto, clearing the way for the victims of 9/11 to sue Saudi Arabia on the claim of official government complicity with al-Qaeda. Moreover, while Saudi Arabia officially voiced cautious approval of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, its leaders were clearly frustrated by the lack of consultations with them on the initial agreement. Finally, in the closing days of its tenure, the Obama administration decided to modify its military support to the kingdom due to Saudi Arabia’s human rights violations in the war in Yemen. 

Most Americans oppose selling weapons to Saudi Arabia/Source: https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/americans-are-split-whether-saudi-arabia-friend
Most Americans oppose selling weapons to Saudi Arabia/Source: https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/americans-are-split-whether-saudi-arabia-friend

Finally, under the Trump administration, relations warmed once again, with the new president choosing Riyadh as the site of his first foreign visit; signaling his intent to withdraw from JCPOA; and resuming U.S. arm sales to Saudi Arabia for their war in Yemen. Moreover, in January of 2020, the U.S. carried out a drone strike at Baghdad International Airport that killed IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani. What’s more, while the U.S.-Saudi connection has seemingly always had its ups-and-downs since its inception in the 1940s, since the beginning of the Obama administration, the relationship has become more starkly politicized, with stark divides over how to deal with Saudi Arabia emerging between Republicans and Democrats in Congress as well as the American public. Further shaking up the relationship has been the rise to power of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—a figure initially seen as a reformer but who has become somewhat of an international pariah due to his alleged complicity in the murder and dismemberment of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi as well as the 2022 mass execution of eighty-one individuals despite assurances that the country was completing major legal reforms

Reassessing the Relationship in 2022

With relations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia becoming more fraught as President Biden took office, Cook and Indyk argue that it is a good time to reevaluate the relationship in light of today’s geopolitical situation. To that end, the authors look at the two sides partying ways; reviving the old oil-for-security compact; or trying to create a new, more durable partnership. 

Here, the authors note that while U.S. dependence on Saudi oil is unlikely to return anytime soon—especially as the U.S. has imported fewer barrels per year from the Kingdom every year since 2012—there is still the major issue that U.S. partners such as Japan (39%), South Korea 

(31%), India (18%), and France (13%) import large amounts of Saudi oil, meaning that Saudi Arabia still retains a good deal of leverage over the U.S. via its partners. In addition, as the biggest “swing producer” of oil—with the ability to reduce or increase production of oil by over a million barrels per day—giving the country the ability to use oil prices as a geopolitical cudgel if it wants to. Cook and Indyk further argue that this dependence will not be a temporary situation, as the West’s efforts to move towards renewables is moving too slowly to be able to spurn Saudi Arabia’s hydrocarbons anytime over the next two decades. Indeed, one can see that Saudi Arabia views the situation this way, with its continued capital investments in the oil sector. 

Crude Oil Imports from Saudi Arabia/Source: https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/CFR_CSR94_U.S.-SaudiStrategicCompact.pdf#page=23
Crude Oil Imports from Saudi Arabia/Source: https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/CFR_CSR94_U.S.-SaudiStrategicCompact.pdf#page=23

Cook and Indyk further argue that, as custodians of Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia is the leading Muslim nation, and, as such, has a responsibility to promote a more moderate and tolerant form of Islam around the world. Instead, Saudi Arabia has historically exported a radical form of Wahhabist Sunni Islam, which has been detrimental to Muslim societies around the globe, as its promotion of sectarianism and rivalry with Iran helped fuel conflicts which have devastated Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere. While Mohammed bin Salman has instituted some reforms in an attempt to promote a more moderate and tolerant form of Islam at home, his efforts have had a questionable degree of success. Furthermore, efforts to transform the Saudi economy away from oil—shifting the burden for economic growth onto the private sector—have resulted in “vanity megaprojects” over real efforts to cope with the country’s “Dutch disease.” If those economic reforms continue to fail, and trillions are wasted on high-cost, experimental projects such as Saudi Arabia’s planned eco-city on the Red Sea, it could result in a domestic backlash that threatens the regime and regional stability. 

Another factor that cannot be ignored in assessing the state of the U.S-Saudi relationship in 2022 is the U.S.’ planned retrenchment from the region. Cook and Indyk argue that even as the U.S. turns its eyes towards Asia, it cannot extricate itself from the Middle East without a security framework that fills the huge void left by the departure of American forces from the region. Here, the CFR authors argue that, as such, Saudi Arabia’s’ strategic importance to the U.S. increases as they are the only country with the diplomatic and military heft to provide a strategic balance to Iran outside of Israel. Therefore, Cook and Indyk propose an “Abraham Accords Axis” of Saudi Arabia, Israel, GCC countries, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Sudan that could promote regional stability and allow the U.S. to shift its attention to the Indo-Pacific. While the Palestinian issue still remains a thorny one, there are indications that Saudi Arabia may be willing to abandon their insistence on establishing a Palestinian state before normalization can occur with Israel. 

However, Cook and Indyk are careful to note that permitting Saudi Arabia to become the preeminent remaining player in the Middle East—alongside Israel—would permit the Crown Prince to possibly double-down on his worst instincts, such as the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen and the blockade of Qatar, which have done almost as much to damage regional stability as anything Iran has attempted in recent years, short of its nuclear program. Cook and Indyk acknowledge that, with the U.S. pivot to Asia, Mohammed bin Salman has little reason to become a reliable partner. They argue that, instead, the U.S. must show Saudi Arabia that it can rely on the U.S. security guarantee if Saudi Arabia is to behave more responsibly in its own backyard.

Drawbacks of Current Options

The CFR authors argue that, left to his own devices, the Saudi Crown Prince will simply continue to hedge his bets, keeping his country’s OPEC+ oil production commitments with Russia and deepening ties with China. They further argue that a continued U.S. decoupling from the region would result in a Saudi Arabia that drifts ever more into China and Russia’s orbits, especially in terms of arms imports and security cooperation. If that were to occur, Cook and Indyk assert, the Biden administration and Congress would likely adopt an even more critical view of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and the war in Yemen, further straining the relationship. However, they contend that such a separation could create the space for improving Saudi-Israeli relations as well as to mitigate the rhetorical strains on the Biden administration’s “values-based” foreign policy by eliminating the need to create carve outs for Saudi behavior. 

However, the authors note that this drift has been temporarily disrupted by the war in Ukraine, with the two sides seemingly needing to come to some sort of reconciliation in order to stabilize global energy markets. For Cook and Indyk, the two sides coming to a “realist” understanding would involve setting aside Saudi human rights violations in order to return to a security-for-oil relationship; though they do acknowledge that such a reconciliation would likely require Congressional authorization of new arms sales to Saudi Arabia. 

Despite these benefits, the authors ultimately argue that such a reset to the old status quo would unlikely achieve the results that the Biden administration is seeking; especially as it faced Congressional criticisms for the abandonment of its values-based foreign policy, and arms sales, which already were previously blocked by the House, would be difficult to push through without causing chaos amongst the progressive caucus. Furthermore, letting the Saudi Crown Prince have free rein would likely result in further blunders such as the war in Yemen, ultimately weakening the relationship in the long-term by creating further long-term strains on the partnership. 

Elements of a New Strategic Compact

As Cook and Indyk view the alternatives of separation and a return to the old status quo as untenable, they thus propose a reconceptualization of the original U.S.-Saudi understanding, where both sides make parallel commitments in order to demonstrate each side’s reliability to the other. To begin, they state that the U.S. would need to clarify its security commitment to Saudi Arabia, entering into a Strategic Framework Agreement similar to what exists between the U.S. and Singapore. Such an agreement would provide a strong U.S. commitment to enhance security cooperation with Saudi Arabia in order to deal with common threats and promote regional stability. Such an agreement could include defense cooperation through the Saudi provision of facilities for U.S. vessels, personnel, and equipment; the conduct of bilateral and multilateral exercises in the region; conducting policy dialogues to exchange strategic perspectives; cooperation in disaster management; building counterterrorism capacity in Saudi Arabia; and cooperation against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, amongst other things. 

The authors propose if such a commitment were to be reciprocated by the Saudis, then the U.S. could commit to immediate consultations in the event of an imminent security threat against the kingdom, which would address concerns that the Biden administration did not do enough in response to Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities in the Spring of 2021 and, through its lifting of the foreign terrorist organization (FTO) designation on the Houthis in Yemen. The authors also argue that the U.S.  could borrow elements from the Taiwan Relations Act and commit to treating any attack on Saudi Arabia as a threat to the security of the region, and of grave concern to the United States. While none of that would be tantamount to a NATO Article 5 guarantee, it would allow Saudi Arabia to feel more secure in the knowledge that the U.S. will come to its defense when needed. 

The authors propose that, in exchange, Saudi Arabia and Mohammed bin Salman would have to take a series of steps in order to provide the Biden administration with the political benefits it would need to justify such a hefty security commitment to such a domestically unpopular country. These include Saudi Arabia making an open-ended commitment to use its swing production capability to stabilize global energy prices at reasonable levels; that Saudi Arabia come to an understanding with the U.S. on a timetable for ending the war in Yemen; that the kingdom take more steps to normalize relations with Israel; and that the Saudi Crown Prince would have to take public responsibility for the Khashoggi murder, ensuring that those physically responsible for the killing were “brought to justice”—whatever that means in a scenario wherein the U.S. has a good deal of certainty that Mohammed bin Salman was ultimately behind the murder.

Problems with the New Strategic Compact

Ultimately, it is this section of the report where Cook and Indyk’s analysis fundamentally breaks down, as it seems to be predicated on a fundamental misunderstanding of the exact nature of the relationship, as well as a fatal naivete about the man who will likely be leading Saudi Arabia for the next half-century. 

To begin, while Cook and Indyk’s report is valuable as a way to understand many of the current strains on the U.S.-Saudi relationship, it does not paint a clear enough picture about the extent of Saudi reliance on the U.S. security guarantee and partnership. Moreover, it somewhat over inflates overall U.S. dependence on the kingdom. From joint maritime security cooperation missions and exercises in the Arabian Gulf that address insecurity around the Arabian peninsula to joint air operations and training in support of those maritime elements and even efforts to “train, advise, and assist” Saudi Arabia’s’ regular armed forces, the U.S. is doing quite a bit to transform the Saudi’s, “multilayer structural and organisational problems,” in defense. 

As was noted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Anthony Cordesman in a March 2018 analysis, it had been clear that Saudi Arabia had, “been spending far too large a portion of its economy on security priorities that have yielded uncertain results.” For a country that spent 8% of its GDP on security and defense in 2020, and is the second largest importer of foreign arms in the world over the past four years, Saudi Arabia will want to ensure that it gets the most of of its new, predominantly-American equipment, especially as it needs U.S. trainers and advisors to instruct its soldiers on how to properly use their new equipment. 

What’s more, just as India has been faced with the difficulty of weaning itself off of Russian-made weapons—in particular, the need for a steady supply of spare parts for the 46% of Russian-made equipment it has imported in the past four years—so will Saudi Arabia run into difficulty if it were to decide to spurn U.S. equipment in favor of Russian or Chinese equipment. As was noted in a piece in the Intercept back in 2019, that year, a highly classified document produced by the French Directorate of Military Intelligence, “shows that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are overwhelmingly dependent on Western-produced weapon systems to wage their devastating war in Yemen. Many of the systems listed are only compatible with munitions, spare parts, and communications systems produced in NATO countries, meaning that the Saudis and UAE would have to replace large portions of their arsenals to continue with Russian or Chinese weapons.” Indeed, as Rachel Stohl of the Stimson Center said to the Intercept in the same 2019 article, “you can’t just swap out the missiles that are used in U.S. planes for suddenly using Chinese and Russian missiles,” as, “it takes decades to build your air force. It’s not something you do in one fell swoop.”

Furthermore, despite President Biden’s distaste for the Crown Prince, in June 2021, the administration reported to Congress that there were still around 2,700 U.S. troops in the country deployed to protect U.S. interest against hostile action by Iran or its proxies. Additionally, U.S. forces in CENTCOM, as of June 2021, still provided U.S. monitoring of, “Yemeni territory for incoming projectiles targeting Saudi territory,” which gives Riyadh early warning in the event of attack. Moreover, the U.S., through commercial contractors, continued to provide maintenance and sustainment services to the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) which is essential to keep Saudi aircraft in the air. Finally, as was also pointed out by Elias Yousif of the Security Assistance Monitor, such support includes $9 billion for F-15 support, $1.8 billion for “aircraft follow-on support and services” including logistics support for RSAF aircraft, engines, and weapons; and $106.8 million for maintenance and support to support the Royal Saudi Land Forces Aviation Command’s rotary-wing fleet, engines, avionics, missiles, and more. 

However, U.S. security assistance does not solely consist of foreign military sales (FMS) and international military education and training (IMET), but also includes security and counterterrorism cooperation programs. According to the Congressional Research Service, these programs include the Office of the Program Manager-Ministry of Interior (OPM-MOI), which is, “a Saudi-funded, U.S.- staffed senior advisory mission that embeds U.S. advisors into key security, industrial, energy, maritime, and cybersecurity offices within the Saudi government, including with the Ministry of Interior and Presidency for State Security,” which, ““facilitates the transfer of technical knowledge, advice, skills, and resources from the United States to Saudi Arabia in the areas of critical infrastructure protection and public security.” Moreover, in tandem with these efforts, the U.S. Army Material Command-Security Assistance Command (USASAC) oversees a Saudi Ministry of Interior Military Assistance Group (MOI-MAG), under which, U.S. personnel provides to Saudi Ministry of Interior security personnel, “security assistance training to include marksmanship, patrolling perimeters, setting up security checkpoints, vehicle searches at entry control point, rules of engagement toward possible threats and personnel screening,” as well as courses similar to the Army Basic Instructors’ Course, basic officers’ course, airborne and flight training, and military police training. 

What’s more, the U.S. has conducted a number of naval operations in recent years in and around the Persian Gulf both to support international standards regarding freedom of navigation, but also to directly deter Saudi rivals Yemen and Iran. More recently, as was noted by Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and Commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, “in terms of cooperation with Saudi Arabia, [the U.S. has] for decades and we continue to have an excellent relationship with Saudi Arabia. We have a very large contingent of Saudi navy personnel here at headquarters as part of both the Combined Maritime Forces as well as the International Maritime Security Construct, the operational arm of which is called Task Force Sentinel.” He further notes that the two sides work together on a daily basis, conducting maritime exercises in the Red Sea with the Saudi navy. Finally, the mere presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), and the multinational Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) has helped Saudi Arabia crack down on arms smuggling to the Houthis in Yemen as well as conduct counter-piracy missions in the region. 

In sum, therefore, it will be extremely difficult for Saudi Arabia to quickly and easily wean itself off from U.S. support, even if it wished to jump straight into the arms of Russia or China, especially with Russia stuck in a quagmire in Ukraine and with China entering into historic, long-term agreements with Saudi Arabia’s chief rival, Iran. Furthermore, as was readily acknowledged at the outset of Cook and Indyk’s report, U.S. dependence on Saudi oil just is not what it once was, with the U.S. even going weeks in 2021 where it did not import any oil from the kingdom. 

Additionally, while it is true that the European market will certainly be looking to replace Russia’s spot as the continents’ main hydrocarbons supplier, as of now, the EU only imports around 7% of its crude oil from Saudi Arabia, the same amount imported from the United Kingdom. With Russia the EU’s main supplier of 1.2 million barrels per day of refined oil products, meeting European demand would eat into almost the entirety of Saudi swing production capacity. Furthermore, such an increase would not even address the EU’s demand for natural gas—which is around 155 billion cubic meters per year—especially as Saudi Aramco has not yet figured out how to develop and commercialize its Jafurah gas field reserves. What’s more, Aramco has yet to expand its domestic gas infrastructure, meaning that any attempt to deliver natural gas to Europe would be complicated by the lack of a gas export facility on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast or a pipeline connecting directly to Europe, each of which will take years to complete; years that Europe does not have. 

Therefore, while the situation in Ukraine has made European energy dependence on Russia untenable, the United States should comfortably feel that it is currently offering Saudi Arabia as much as—if not a great deal more than—Saudi Arabia is offering the United States. While Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman certainly retains the ability to make things even more difficult in the region by ramping up his country’s proxy war with Iran in Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere, a renewal of the relationship, if it is just to avoid malign behavior from the Saudi Crown Prince, would send a terrible message to the international community about what the United States is willing to tolerate from its partners. 

To be clear, negotiating a new U.S.-Saudi Strategic Compact, which sacrifices American values in order to secure a twenty-year supply of subsidized hydrocarbons, would be the height of cynicism. It would fundamentally communicate that Mohammed bin Salman’s behavior in ordering the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, launching a humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen, and silencing dissent at home is fine with Americans as long as they get a dollar per gallon relief at the gas pumps. Such cynicism can only embolden a figure like Mohammed bin Salman to go further with his repression at home, safe in the knowledge that his major security partners may find his behavior distasteful—just not so much that they will do anything in particular about it. 

Another reason to be skeptical of a renewed U.S.-Saudi Strategic Compact would be the potential damage done to the Palestinian cause. While Cook and Indyk propose that a new Middle East architecture—which would build on the security cooperation framework of the Abraham Accords—would bring together Saudi Arabia with Israel and, “provide a robust platform for promoting regional stability that would enable the United States to shift from a dominating role in the regional balance to a supportive one,” there is the thorny issue that the Saudi Crown Prince has stated that there can be no normalization between his country and Israel absent a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While indications are that it is King Salman who is more of a barrier to Israeli-Saudi normalization, and that full diplomatic ties will not be possible until Prince Mohammed takes the throne, the fact that the Crown Prince is willing to consider abandoning his country’s traditional support of the Palestinian cause simply further demonstrates the Crown Prince’s purely transactional nature. Those that abandon all principles as the landscape changes around them are not the best people to conduct long-term security compacts with—as they are likely to abandon the deal with the U.S. when times get tough or a better offer comes along from a country such as China. 

What’s more, a potential “Abraham Accords Axis” ignores the fact that public opinion in both Saudi Arabia and the U.S. opposes deeper ties between the two sides. As was revealed in a poll conducted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy from November 2020 only 41% of the Saudi public call the UAE and Bahrain’s normalization with Israel somewhat or very positive, while 54% have negative responses to the deals. Furthermore, support for the Abraham Accords dipped in a June 2021 poll to just 36% of Saudi respondents. 

The public opinion situation is not that much better on this side of the Atlantic, either. While polling data from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs notes that while 45% of Americans view the Saudis as a partner with which the U.S. must strategically cooperate, the country receives just 37 out of a possible 100 points in the Chicago Council’s thermometer rating. For perspective, the Chicago Council’s data on the U.S. major rival, China, puts that country’s thermometer rating at 33 out of 100, a similarly poor ranking. 

Saudi Arabia Thermometer Rating/Source: https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/commentary-and-analysis/blogs/us-public-views-saudi-relationship-one-necessity
Saudi Arabia Thermometer Rating/Source: https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/commentary-and-analysis/blogs/us-public-views-saudi-relationship-one-necessity

Another essential problem with the U.S.-Saudi relationship is the simple fact that if Saudi Arabia really is an American client state, the U.S. certainly does not get the value it needs out of the relationship. In Christopher Shoemaker and John Spanier’s classic text on patron-client relationships, the authors define six types of relationships, from patron-centric to influence parity and even client-centric. The U.S.-Saudi relationship would likely fall into Shoemaker and Spanier’s third type of relationship—influence parity—wherein a client in possession of a major natural resource, such as oil, is able to exert a large degree of influence in the relationship, as the patron will be willing to go to great lengths to keep the client on their side. At the same time, a client in a high-threat environment will be willing to go the extra mile to keep the relationship. 

However, what is being proposed by Cook and Indyk would lean more towards a client-prevalence or even client-centric model, wherein the largely threat-free client has huge influence over the patron, as the patron is focused on major strategic objectives which can only be achieved through client participation. While Saudi Arabia is not entirely threat-free with a possibly nuclear-armed Iran looming nearby, a Saudi Arabia that makes peace with Israel and retains a robust U.S. security guarantee would have much less to fear than it has in the past. Similarly, as Aly Zaman noted in their doctoral thesis examining the U.S.-Pakistan patron-client relationship, the U.S.-Saudi relationship is one where the client is, “Deemed by the patron to be of significant strategic importance,” thus making them, “likely to receive more assistance,” while being, “less compliant in fulfilling the patron’s objectives.” Zaman further notes that, “this is especially true of relationships in which the patron regards the client’s cooperation as vitally important for the attainment of the patron’s core security interests.” 

Moreover, Zaman remarks that, “as long as the patron’s own strategic interests necessitate a degree of client cooperation, it will find itself compelled to keep the relationship going, thereby giving the client continued room to deviate from the patron’s script to an extent where it can pursue its own national interests with relative impunity, confident in the knowledge that while its defiance might lead to occasional tensions with the patron, its continuing strategic importance will prevent a complete rupture and consequent termination of material assistance.” While discussing the U.S.-Pakistan relationship, Zaman could have easily been discussing the U.S.-Saudi one. By making Saudi Arabia one of the largest global recipients of U.S. arms, the U.S. communicated to Saudi Arabia that it could act with impunity. Instead of a recalibration of the bilateral partnership, Cook and Indyk’s new Strategic Compact would merely double down on the existing security-for-oil relationship, and by removing the Saudi-Israeli tensions, actually make Saudi Arabia more secure and, thus, more likely to pursue its own national interests with impunity. 

Finally, there is the point that there is a blatant contradiction at the heart of Cook and Indyk’s new Strategic Compact. As was noted by Andrew J. Bacevich in his book, America’s War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History, the 1980s Carter Doctrine, “represented a broad, open-ended commitment, one that expanded further with time,” which, “implied the conversion of the Persian Gulf into an informal American protectorate, and that, “defending the region meant policing it.” As such, it is hard to square the Biden administration’s professed desire to pivot to Asia with a massive, open-ended commitment to police the entire Persian Gulf region for Saudi Arabia.

Ultimately, while Cook and Indyk’s instincts to attempt to arrest the downward spiral in the U.S.-Saudi relationship are laudable, their conclusion that the U.S. must provide Saudi Arabia with a more robust security commitment than the one already being given not only ignores the imbalance in relationship in regards to the relative benefits provided, it ignores the fact that such a renewed commitment would constrain U.S. desires to pay greater attention to the Indo-Pacific. Similarly, Saudi behavior in recent years—including its hedging towards Russia after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and sidling closer to China—has demonstrated that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should not be considered a trusted interlocutor for the U.S. While international affairs often forces countries to partner with those with which they have major differences, asking the U.S. to enter into a broad, open-ended commitment to Saudi security simply in exchange for an end to the war in Yemen and cheaper—it is not defined specifically what Cook and Indyk mean when they say Saudi Arabia must agree to use its swing production ability to standardize oil prices at “reasonable” levels—oil and gas would, at the minimum, be a bargain balanced strongly in the Saudis favor. When adding in the antipathy the American public shows towards the future Saudi monarch—and his demonstrated track record of human rights abuses—and the country more generally, it would be better to accept some temporary economic pain now rather than double down on a bad relationship with a murderous authoritarian autocrat.

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Considering Political Engagement with Violent Extremists: On Negotiating with Somalia’s Al-Shabaab

June 24, 2022

Somalia is at a critical juncture in its history, as former president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was selected back in May to lead the country for a second term after having initially led the country from 2012-2017.It is in that environment that, earlier this week, the International Crisis Group published a report, “Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia,” which argued that, as fifteen years of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations have largely failed to defeat al-Shabaab in the field, it might be the right time to at least consider some initial confidence-building steps between the sides that could lead to a reduction in the violence plaguing the country. 

Somalia's newly elected President, Hassan Sheikh join hands with former president during his inauguration ceremony in Mogadishu on 9 June 2022. ATMIS Photo / Fardosa Hussein/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/195242906@N08/52133838531/in/album-72177720299660701/
Somalia’s newly elected President, Hassan Sheikh join hands with former president during his inauguration ceremony in Mogadishu on 9 June 2022. ATMIS Photo / Fardosa Hussein/Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/195242906@N08/52133838531/in/album-72177720299660701/

In principle, while a new African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)—which took over for the previous African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) back in April—is meant to stabilize the country, with the goal of being able to transition security responsibilities to the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) by the end of 2024 when the mission’s mandate expires, it is it is unlikely that ATMIS, with a force roughly the same size as what AMISOM possessed, will be able to dramatically improve conditions on the ground. Furthermore, the al-Shabaab insurgency has been emboldened by Taliban successes against the West in Afghanistan, which has demonstrated to the group that its perseverance may eventually pay off. 

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has decided to redeploy around 500 U.S. troops to Somalia to help train Somali security forces, as well as an effort to “mow the grass” of al-Shabaab by targeting the group’s leadership, especially those suspected of playing roles in plots that are determined to be a direct threat to, “us, and our interests and our allies,” according to one Biden administration official. This decision comes after the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw the U.S.’ nearly 700 troops in Somalia in December 2020 and a resultant seventeen percent increase in al-Shabaab violence in the intervening year. 

Despite the uptick in violence over the past year, and the newly emboldened spirit of many in al-Shabaab’s leadership, the conflict between the state and al-Shabaab has been largely reduced to a war of attrition, with an effective stalemate having been reached since at least 2016, and with little sign that either the state authorities or the insurgents will achieve a victory. Therefore, it is worth considering a brief analysis of al-Shabaab, its motivations, and its views on possible dialogue with the federal government. 

Al-Shabaab: A (Very) Brief History

To have any understanding of whether al-Shabaab’s leadership will be likely to engage in talks with the Mohamud administration, one must first consider the group’s history, leadership, and goals. The group, whose name means “the Youth”, in Arabic, is the largest militant operation in Somalia, and formed as a breakaway movement from the Islamic Courts Union in 2006. 

The Islamic Courts Union, which was formed in 2000 by Muslim clerics from the Abgal sub-clan of the powerful Hawiye clan, was formed to address some of the endemic lawlessness that had been ongoing since the 1991 civil war. While initially formed as a way to extend clan-based power in Somalia, the expansion of Islamic courts led to the organizations becoming more tied to political Islam, especially once Al-Itihaad al-Islamiya, the Islamic Union, began to emerge as prominent leaders of the Islamic Courts Union. That group, which included leaders from other clans, including Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, began to represent a threat to the newly-formed Transitional Federal Government (TFG)—as well as the country’s Hawiye warlords, which formed the U.S. supported Alliance for Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARCPT)—which framed the ICU as a terrorist organization looking to establish an Islamic state in Somalia. 

Around this same time, tensions between the ICU and ARCPT flared into violence, as the ICU defeated the warlords, driving them out of Mogadishu with the help of a militant wing known as al-Shabaab. The group’s rise, which was viewed with great concern in Ethiopia, saw Addis Ababa increase its support for the Somali TFG; with fighting between the TGF, UN-backed Ethiopian troops and the ICU beginning at the end of 2006. 

Ethiopian military involvement led to the rapid ouster of the ICU from Mogadishu, but served to radicalize al-Shabaab’s membership, with the Ethiopian occupation from December 2006 to January 2009, fueling, “the development of al Shabaab’s ideology, recruitment, operational strategy, and partnerships, transforming the group form a small, relatively unimportant part of a more moderate Islamic movement into the most powerful and radical armed faction in the country,” as was argued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) Rob Wise. Wise also notes that while al-Shabaab’s ideology was at least somewhat tempered by the Islamic Court Union’s more moderate beliefs, the Ethiopian destruction of the ICU’s military capabilities caused the group’s moderate leadership, including Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, to flee the country. However, more militant Wahhabi leaders such as Aden Hashi Ayro remained to fight as part of al-Shabaab, hardening the group’s religious ideology and advocating a more strict version of sharia law for the country. 

As a result of this more strident religious posture, new Islamist fighters poured into the country between 2006 and 2008, swelling the group’s ranks from 400 to several thousand over that period. As part of the group’s renewed religious fervor, it began to connect to the broader transnational jihadist movement and began a relationship with Al Qaeda, which was nurtured and strengthened over this period—with the group eventually becoming an Al Qaeda affiliate in early 2012

However, despite Ethiopia’s withdrawal from Mogadishu in 2009 as part of a 2008 UN-backed agreement, al-Shabaab continued its operations, stating that its goals were the complete withdrawal of all foreign soldiers from the country; especially as its goals of implementing sharia were already being taken up by President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. With the withdrawal of Ethiopia and the government’s co-option of the group’s sharia-related goals in Somalia, al-Shabaab struggled to retain purpose. This was especially the case as it was targeted by AMISOM, and, as a result, withdrew from the country’s capital in August 2011. 

Despite setbacks, the group continued attacks both in Somalia and abroad, including its infamous four-day siege of Kenya’s Westgate mall in 2013, which received widespread international attention. Such attacks continued throughout the decade, as January 2016 saw al-Shabaab militants kill over 170 Kenyan military personnel at El Adde military base which were operating as part of AMISOM. The following year saw an even larger, more damaging attack, with al-Shabaab killing 512 and wounding 312 in a truck bomb blast in Mogadishu. These attacks saw contributing countries such as Kenya and Uganda threaten to withdraw from AMISOM due to their own security concerns.

While the group has run into obstacles in its fight with AMISOM, it still retains control over parts of central and southern Somalia. Moreover, according to a September 2021 piece by CSIS’ Jake Harrington and Jared Thompson, “al Shabaab is capable of projecting military power against Somali state and international forces,” noting that, “in August 2021, fighters affiliated with the group stormed a military facility and captured the town of Amara in central Somalia—a town which the Somali army had captured from al Shaabab [sic] earlier in the month. These frequent clashes and territorial exchanges demonstrate al Shabaab’s continued capacity to wage protracted insurgency despite years of U.S. and multilateral efforts to degrade the group’s military capabilities.” 

Source: https://extremism.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs2191/f/Al-Shabaab-IMEP_Bacon_March-2022.pdf#page=79
Source: https://extremism.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs2191/f/Al-Shabaab-IMEP_Bacon_March-2022.pdf#page=79

A Grinding Stalemate

Despite robust continental and international efforts to oust the extremists from Somalia, the Crisis Group report’s authors remark that, “al-Shabaab survives, if not thrives, because it enjoys greater internal coherence than its adversaries. It holds together due to adherence to a unifying Salafi-jihadist ideology and strong checks on dissent. Not every member believes equally in each and every tenet, but the common beliefs provide the basis for an organisational logic that neither the federal government nor any member state can match.” 

However, discussions of al-Shabaab unity may speak as much about Somali political dysfunction as anything else; especially as Abdirashid Hasi, Executive Director for the Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute for Policy Studies notes that, “a winner takes all mentality reigns throughout the country, creating deep political instability. In a country where political and social reconciliation remain a work in progress, Somalia’s elite has failed to rise to the occasion and unite against the common enemy—Al-Shabaab,” and that, “regrettably, each new leadership makes the exact same mistake and spends the next four years fending off political rivals, instead of facing off against Al-Shabaab.”

Taking advantage of Somali political instability, which included a contentious fifteen-month delay in the start of the country’s latest presidential elections, al-Shabaab’s broad strategic goals are to avoid, “directly military combat, to maintain dominance in rural south-central Somalia, and increasingly, to penetrate cities and towns nominally under government control.” When coupled with a security sector that is still more of a, “conglomeration of militias than…a competent State security service,” and the country’s long-standing political dysfunction, it has allowed the group to secure a foothold in rural areas, where it even provides services and collects more tax revenue than the Somali government. Furthermore, the Crisis group authors note that, “some of the basic services it provides rival or outstrip those offered in government-held areas.” 

Further complicating matters is Somalia’s political fragmentation, with power contested between the federal state in Mogadishu and each of the country’s six federal member states, resulting in state difficulties in providing public goods and services to areas outside of the capital. In contrast, al-Shabaab’s relative centralization allows it to issue single passes for citizens and goods to travel along roads under their control; whereas in areas under government control, a person transporting goods must pay a fee at each federal member state checkpoint. Further complicating matters is the proliferation of militia groups throughout the country, ranging from the Macawiisleey pastoralists to Ahlu Sunn Wal Jama’a Sufi Muslims, all of which can undermine the authority of the FGS and act as underlying sources of, “insecurity, violent contestation, abusive rule, impunity, and pernicious outside manipulation.” 

However, despite government failures to provide public goods, the picture is not entirely rosy for al-Shabaab in Somalia, as the Crisis Group authors note that the group’s expanding presence in Somali’s everyday lives has brought with it some concomitant difficulties. These include a backlash against the group’s extortion tactics and its demands for young male conscripts from families in villages that al-Shabaab controls. 

Therefore, despite both the government and the insurgents having a variety of obstacles to their uncontested rule—even in areas nominally under their control—it would seem to behoove both sides to come to some sort of power-sharing agreement in order to reduce their respective vulnerabilities. Historically, however, outreach efforts have borne little fruit, mainly because al-Shabaab has stated that it views all members of the government as apostates and, thus,  illegitimate interlocutors. Furthermore, in prior rounds of talks, al-Shabaab displayed little flexibility on its demands that the government simply surrender to the insurgents. With such a strident negotiating stance, it is unsurprising that talks have not gained more traction in the past. 

That being said, there are indications that things may be changing. The Crisis Group report points out that, “credible and well-informed sources assert that individuals in the group, including some senior leaders, give indications that they might consider talks with the Somali government.” Furthermore, as was noted by the University of Portsmouth’s Mohammed Ibrahim Shire in a 2021 piece for War on the Rocks, “in September 2021, al-Shabaab’s spokesperson, Ali Dheere, released an audio statement presenting al-Shabaab’s strategy and religious justification for its violent operations and ended by saying the group is willing to engage in a public debate with anyone who disagrees.” 

However, even though there are members of al-Shabaab willing to talk, that does not mean that negotiations will be easy to enter into. As noted by Tricia Bacon in her excellent, “Inside the Minds of Somalia’s Ascendant Insurgents: An Identity, Mind, Emotions and Perceptions Analysis of Al-Shabaab,” al-Shabaab is remarkably cohesive, a, “remarkable accomplishment for any militant group more than fifteen years old, especially one in Somalia, albeit an outcome resulting in part from the violent suppression of internal dissent.” As such, differences in opinion of group leadership are difficult to exploit by government interlocutors. 

Further complicating matters is the Somali government’s legitimacy deficit. As noted by the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Matt Bryden and Theodore Murphy, “since 2000, successive transitional governments have tried, and failed, to earn domestic legitimacy and exercise de facto authority across the country,” and that during his four years in office, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo rolled back any progress on building institutions in Somalia, “waging a determined assault against the letter and spirit of Somalia’s provisional constitution, the tenets of its emerging federal system, and the principle of inclusive, consultative politics that is enshrined in the country’s basic law. After four years of political and institutional vandalism in which he strove to dismantle Somalia’s incipient constitutional order, Farmaajo and his followers have brought Somalia once again to the brink of institutional collapse and armed conflict.”

Making talks even harder to arrange is the irredentist rhetoric of some of al-Shabaab’s leadership, which advocates the creation of a “Greater Somalia”, which includes territory in Somaliland, Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia. This al-Shabaab irredentism even causes strains with al-Shabaab’s parent organization, al-Qaeda, with CSIS’ Jake Harrington and Jared Thompson noting that despite the formal merger with al-Qaeda in 2012, “al-Shabaab is plagued by long-standing intergroup conflicts between ‘globalist’ elements sympathetic to al-Qaeda’s broader ideology and ‘localists’ focused on ambitions to govern Somalia.” As noted by the Crisis Group authors, it is unknown whether the group would be willing to confine its ambitions to Somalia’s current national borders. As such, Somalia’s neighbors will continue to view it as a threat and will look upon any talks with the group with suspicion. 

Yet another factor hindering talks is the aforementioned political dysfunction pervading the country. In addition to the previous president’s unconstitutional attempt to garner an extra two years at the country’s helm, there is the fact that there is an ongoing power struggle between Mogadishu and the country’s federal member states, primarily over power sharing, but also over the distribution of resources.

Taking Steps to Engage Al-Shabaab

Despite all of the aforementioned difficulties, the situation on the ground shows no indication that, after fifteen years of war, the government in Mogadishu will be able to vanquish the insurgency. Nor is it likely that the insurgents will be able to dispense with the elected government. Therefore, while difficult and likely unappealing for everyone involved, talks between the government and al-Shabaab are the only logical path forward. 

However, getting everyone to the negotiating table will not be a simple matter. To that end, the Crisis Group authors look at several options that the Mohamud administration has to reach out to the group in order to begin talks. These range from the appointing of a high-level envoy; a team of trusted intermediaries; and even using multilateral organizations such as the UN. While each scenario has its drawbacks—a special envoy may play into ideas that outreach is politicized; using a group of clan elders or sheikhs will risk leaving out individuals who may become spoilers; and foreign involvement draws strong sentiments of distrust from al-Shabaab—it would be worth at least attempting one of these pathways. 

Moreover, even if preliminary steps do not yield formal negotiations, the process of communicating with al-Shabaab in an attempt to arrive at some sort of peaceful resolution to the country’s conflict would be a step that hopefully begins to build trust between the sides and sets the stage for more productive talks in the future. As part of a series of confidence-building measures, the Crisis Group authors propose that the government could tone down its rhetoric, engaging in a “linguistic ceasefire” with the insurgents, with al-Shabaab reciprocating by refraining from calling the government apostates

Another step the government could take would be to improve the personal safety and freedom of movement of al-Shabab family members, whom the government has regularly harassed in the past. While the government could allow al-Shabab family members to travel to government-held areas without harm, al-Shabaab could reciprocate by allowing low- and mid-level Somali officials to visit al-Shabaab-held territory to visit family. Moreover, the government in Mogadishu could do more to treat al-Shabaab detainees better, as previously, the country’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) has, “held [al-Shabaab] detainees for prolonged periods without following due process and mistreated suspects during interrogations,” as was noted in the State Department’s 2021 Human Rights Report on Somalia. 

One more way that Somali authorities could make talks more enticing for al-Shabab would be to improve the lives of those living under al-Shabaab control by either allowing COVID-19 vaccinations to reach people living in al-Shabaab-held areas or allowing those individuals to travel to government-held areas to get their vaccination. Furthermore, the ongoing drought in Somalia offers opportunities to the government to ensure that relief supplies are delivered to al-Shabaab-controlled areas. However, such efforts would need to overcome the group’s anti-vaccine rhetoric, as well as general Somali skepticism about international aid. The insurgents would also have to give some kind of concrete indication that they would not repeat its raids and bans on humanitarian aid organizations, which occurred during the drought of 2011. As was noted by CSIS’ Jacob Kurtzer, Hareem Fatima Abdullah, and Sierra Ballard, “al-Shabaab’s current efforts to exploit aid are part of a bleak history of humanitarian assistance in Somalia,” and, as such, using aid to entice the group to the negotiating table would have to be done very carefully, with reciprocal confidence-building steps needing to be built-in to any provision of aid to the group.

Finally, in terms of confidence-building measures, the Crisis Group authors argue that the FGS should explore limited and local ceasefires for specific operational activities or for humanitarian reasons. In such a scenario, the insurgents would commit to halting their campaign of assassination, which included the killings of, “dozens of elders and electoral delegates in Mogadishu and elsewhere,” following the 2016-2017 elections. The end goal of all of these measures would be to foster at least some element of trust between the groups in order to persuade them to come to the table. 

The Risks of Engagement

The Crisis Group report closes by examining some of the potentially negative externalities from engaging with al-Shabaab. The major concern is that the group merely uses the specter of talks to consolidate and regroup. The authors are clear that while such a pause for talks would certainly entail the cessation of certain military activities by the government—such as targeted killings of al-Shabaab leaders—it would not mean that the government ceases all military operations against the insurgents, merely that it stop targeted assassinations of influential leaders while talks are ongoing. 

The second danger that talks pose is that it legitimizes al-Shabab or that authorities prioritize concessions while the group maintains its adherence to violence. However, the authors note that initial contacts are unlikely to change Somalis perceptions of the group, especially if they are kept secret, as would be likely. Furthermore, the best way to stop al-Shabaab’s views from carrying too much weight at the bargaining table would be to have a more inclusive process of dialogue which gives civil society a larger say, especially as, “the policy of isolation of al-Shabaab limits the potential for civil society to contribute to peacebuilding, by hampering neutral positioning in the Somali conflict and preventing impartial and horizontal engagement with all key conflict stakeholders,” as was noted by John Paul Lederach, Douglas Ansel, Jessica Brandwein, Ashley Lyn Greene, Ryne Clos, Shinkyu Lee, and Laura Weis in a joint paper for the Swedish Life and Peace Institute and Notre Dame’s Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies. 

Yet another danger is that any kind of outreach plays into the existing Somali political rifts. As noted by the Crisis Group authors, the basis for political representation in Somalia since the early 2000s has been the “4.5 formula”, wherein of the country’s 245 parliamentary seats, forty-nine seats would go to the four largest clans (Darood, Dir/Isaaq, Hawiye, and Rahanweyn/Digil-Mirifle) while twenty-nine seats would go to the grouping of smaller clans sometimes called the “fifth clan.” If negotiations progressed with al-Shabaab, it is possible that a potential power-sharing agreement would upset that delicate arrangement, causing a lack of buy-in from clans that lost out on power as part of the bargain. Therefore, discussions should aim to include as wide of a swathe of political, social, and civil society actors before talks with the insurgents could begin.

Another risk for talks is that Somalia’s international partners act as spoilers, especially partners that have heavily invested in counterterrorism efforts in the country, such as Ethiopia and Kenya, which view al-Shabaab as a threat to their interests in the region. As such, the Crisis Group authors propose that Somali politicians work to build political support in the U.S., and bring the Biden administration on board in order to manage the geopolitical blowback that any attempted talks with the insurgents would likely garner. 

Finally, the Crisis Group report argues that engagement could embolden hardliners amongst al-Shabaab, splitting off an aggrieved mass of fighters that are even more committed to the government’s violent destruction. Such a move could lead disaffected al-Shabaab members to join with the nascent Islamic State in Somalia, which has struggled to expand its operations outside of the country’s mountainous north. 

The Only Way Out Runs Through the Negotiating Table

As Tricia Bacon’s excellent Identity, Mind, Emotions and Perceptions (IMEP) analysis of al-Shabaab argues, al-Shabaab members, while certainly not monolithic in their experiences and feelings, likely do share some level of common sentiments including a degree of contempt and disgust towards the Somali government; a sense of smugness surrounding the group’s feeling that it is prevailing against the dysfunctional government; a fear of U.S. drone strikes, rising popular support against the group, and al-Shabaab’s internal intelligence unit, the Amniyat; hatred towards foreign forces in Somalia, particularly Kenyan and Ethiopian forces, but also including UN and AU deployments; humiliation at the sense of Somalia being occupied by foreign armies; a desire for revenge against the Somali government, foreign forces, and rival clans; and a self-righteousness that views al-Shabaab’s actions as, “rooted in the idea that everything it does is good, or at the very least, justified.”

In a country where the unemployment rate for those under the age of 30 hovers around 67%, it is likely that a large number of voluntary al-Shabaab recruits initially see the group as an economic lifeline and less of a source of political or religious truth. When coupled with the petty, internecine bickering amongst Somali political elites, the continued presence of foreign troops, and the ongoing drought, it is unsurprising that so many of the country’s youth have turned towards a group that gives its members a larger sense of purpose than simply getting a paycheck. While its methods are extremely unsavory, it has put the group in a strong position vis-à-vis Somalia’s mostly non-working government, in that it has set the group up as a force to be reckoned with in any future peace settlement. 

While the group has publicly rejected calls for negotiations in the past, and, “in the current environment, al-Shabaab has few incentives to engage in negotiations to resolve the conflict,” as, “the Somali government is weak, divided, and lacks credibility,” the group is not as opposed to dialogue as its rhetoric may suggest. However, it must be clear to all involved that negotiations are in no way a panacea for Somalia’s ills. As noted by American University’s  Audrey Kurth Cronin, while, “negotiations carry with them many benefits; however, instantaneously ending the violence is not one of them given the small number of operatives needed to continue to carry out terrorist attacks.” However, “from the state’s perspective, negotiations are not a promising tactical means to end terrorist campaigns on their own; but if well-handled, they are nonetheless a wise and durable strategic tool for managing the violence, splintering the opposition, and facilitating its longer term decline.”

Therefore, since putting off engagement in the hopes of gaining the upper hand on the battlefield seems hopelessly naïve, especially considering Somalia and the international community’s efforts to expel al-Shabaab from the country over the previous decade and a half, all that remains is the format of future talks. As argued by Mohammed Ibrahim Shire in, “Dialoguing and negotiating with Al-Shabaab: the role of clan elders as insider-partial mediators,” from December 2020, there is a growing body of literature that discusses, “insider mediators, who have played an invaluable role in preventing and resolving conflict, particularly in contexts where international peacebuilding architectures fail to reflect developing political and complex social realities containing urban violence or asymmetric conflicts,” and that while external mediators must be formally requested, insider mediators, such as clan elders, are already engaged in escalation and de-escalation at the local level. For example, when Mogadishu experienced conflict in the 1990s between warlords Ali Mahdi Muhammed and Mohammed Farah Aideed, “at the local level, high-level Hawiye clan elders were influential in orchestrating short respites for the war-weary Mogadishu residents by mediating periodic truces between [the] two prominent warlords.”

Furthermore, as Shire notes, “in the past, clan elders have facilitated the defection of several high-profile Al-Shabaab members,” including former al-Shabaab spiritual leader Hassan Dahir Aweys, who left in 2013 after clashing with former leader Ahmed Abdi Godane. Furthermore, clan elders have, “negotiated for the release of many documented abductions by Al-Shabaab.” As such, Shire points out that, “the importance of clan elders in getting both sides of talk is advocated by Al-Shabaab defectors, clan elders, and the majority of Somali society, and echoed by many commentators.”

While the group retains its ties to al-Qaeda, Shire states that, “the group can arguably be reparsed as a nationlist-religious group and, as such, warrants a localised and contexualised approach to negotiation. This localised approach merits the need to utilise national sponsors (i.e. insider-partial mediators) when communicating with violent non-state actors, provided their legitimacy and trust is recognised and respected by both parties to the conflict.” As Shire notes, “recognising three important traits, namely accountability, trust, and legitimacy, evidence indeed suggests that clan elders can establish initial dialogue with Al-Shabaab and subsequently mediate further…”

To strengthen Somali government engagement with al-Shabaab members, and encourage the group that the international community will not block any prospective deal, the international community must be ready to suspend sanctions against senior al-Shabaab leaders, just as the U.S. persuaded the UN to suspend sanctions against senior Taliban leaders while the negotiations were ongoing. 

Another key will be for the federal government in Somalia to work to include civil society in negotiations, making sure to include both women and young people in any discussions of peace and possible power-sharing with al-Shabaab. As noted by the Brookings Institution’s Vanda Felbab-Brown in a paper for the Institute for Integrated Transitions and the United Nations University Centre for Policy Research, there is, “a wider sentiment among Somali civil society and human rights activists that the root cause of Somalia’s problems is pervasive impunity of powerbrokers – politicians, businessmen, or militant actors,” and that many Somali civil society members express, “deep scepticism and outright opposition to amnesty or alternative justice processes that seem to perpetuate the lack of individual accountability.” Therefore, their views will need to be taken into consideration when contemplating any peace settlement that involves amnesty or reduced sentences for al-Shabaab members accused of human rights violations. While leniency for some crimes is likely to be granted as part of any future peace talks, it will be important that civil society be given ample opportunities to provide input into the government-led peace process, especially when it comes to disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of former al-Shabaab members. 

Final Thoughts

Ultimately, there is little information on the ground in Somalia that would lead any rational person to believe that the fifteen-year conflict is likely to resolve itself in either side’s favor anytime in the near future. Therefore, in a country where the United Nations Assistance Mission  in Somalia (UNSOM) reported at least 596 civilian deaths in 2020, it would be foolish not to consider a different approach. With the country’s electoral chaos finally resolved and the Mohamud administration coming in having already experienced the country’s dense political currents and internecine political squabbles, the federal government—which has seen its relations with the countries’ federal member states at the lowest point in years—is finally in a position to begin to clean up the mess. 

However, the Mohamud administration must realize that—despite the fact that negotiations may be a long, tortured path—the window to begin talks may be relatively short, especially as confrontations between security forces and al-Shabaab have already occurred under Mohamud. Furthermore, while this conflict has been going on for over a decade and a half, time really is of the essence now, especially as the Russian invasion of Ukraine has cut off a vital source of wheat and 38% of the country goes hungry due to the nearly unprecedented drought. As such, the country simply cannot afford any more instability.

While talks with leaders of the insurgency are likely to be politically difficult to both enter into and complete, there is little alternative, especially as the number of al-Shabaab attacks is already on the rise. While the U.S. has returned to the country in order to help “mow the grass” of al-Shabaab fighters, engaging in some kind of counterterrorism “whack-a-mole” seems like the dictionary definition of doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result. Instead, what is needed in Somalia cannot be found on the battlefield, but rather in the boardroom, at the negotiating table. While talks with al-Shabaab are likely to experience a number of setbacks—and the likelihood of success is still low considering the FGS’ ongoing need to reset relations with the country’s clan-based federal member states—if the goal is to improve the lives of the Somali people, then talks are the best, and perhaps only, way forward.

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Multilateral Military Missions in Mali after the Moura Massacre

June 17, 2022

On Monday, the United Nations Security Council held its quarterly briefing on Mali. The briefing comes at a time when, at the end of this month, the mandate for the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) is up for renewal—just a year after the mission had been previously extended on June 29, 2021. While it is expected that the Security Council will extend the mission’s mandate for another year, discussions surrounding the mandate extension come just a few months after Malian armed forces were credibly accused of summarily executing 300 civilians in the central Malian town of Moura in late March. 

As such, it is worth taking some time to consider whether a mission extension is worth pursuing, or whether the risks of partnering with a military junta that has already soured on French military involvement in the country is entirely worth it. Importantly, discussions of a mandate extension take place against the backdrop of the involvement of the Russian private military company Wagner in Mali, which has been accused of complicity in the Moura massacre—as well as attempts to paint French forces as the real violators of Malian’s human rights. Furthermore, MINUSMA has already seen the deaths of 272 peacekeepers, making it the third deadliest peacekeeping mission since the first UN peacekeeping mission was established in the Middle East in 1948. 

Making matters more complicated, the decision to extend the UN mission’s mandate also comes at a time when relations between the military government in Bamako and the international community have taken a turn for the worse, with the European External Action Service noting in a May 25 strategic review of EUTM Mali and EUCAP Sahel that, “the last months have been characterized by the confrontational stance of the Malian authorities towards the international community and some of their partners as well as unprecedented levels of violence in the East and the Centre of the country, despite the claimed success of the Malian armed forces’ counter-offensive, supported by Russian-affiliated mercenaries,” and that, “serious violations of Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law were reported, committed by terrorist armed groups as well as Malian armed forces accompanied by Russia-affiliated forces.” As a result, EU member states temporarily suspended the provision of training to units of the Malian armed forces (FAMA), though the European Council has yet to terminate the mission. 

In order to determine the best course of action for future international military involvement in the Sahel, it is first wise to review the states of various military missions currently operating in Mali, as well as the conditions the international community may want to impose on their continued involvement, if these missions are to continue while the junta retains power. To that end, one place to start would be the March 2020 paper by Elin Hellquist and Tua Sandman of the Swedish Defense Research Agency, “Synergies Between Military Missions in Mali.” 

As noted in Hellquist and Sandman’s paper, which was compiled over the course of 2019, there were, at the time, four major multinational military missions in Mali—MINUSMA, the G5 Sahel Joint Force, the European Union Training Mission in Mali, and France’s Operation Barkhane—which were eventually supplemented with the arrival of the EU’s Task Force Takuba, which aimed to utilize elite special forces units from contributing countries such as Belgium, Denmark, France, Norway, Sweden, and Greece to address the rising incidences of extremist violence in the region. 

Military Missions in Mali – MINUSMA

First up for consideration is MINUSMA, which consists of 13,289 UN Security Council-authorized troops from over fifty countries including Armenia, Chad, Ivory Coast, Lithuania, Mexico, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the United States. As such, it is the largest military mission in Mali and includes, in addition to regular and special operations troops, a police and civilian component. The mission, whose mandate’s primary strategic priority is to support implementation of the Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation in Mali (the Bamako Agreement)—which aims to provide a roadmap for durable peace in Mali—also requires the mission to facilitate the implementation of a political strategy to reduce intercommunal violence and reestablish state presence and the provision of services throughout the country. 

Source: https://reliefweb.int/attachments/59f6cbf8-0666-4c21-85bb-a5c84467cf97/N2236094.pdf
Source: https://reliefweb.int/attachments/59f6cbf8-0666-4c21-85bb-a5c84467cf97/N2236094.pdf

In order to support implementation of the Bamako Agreement, the mission carries out stabilization operations, supporting the FAMA, “through joint patrolling, security assistance and casualty evacuations,” and conducting more than one hundred joint patrols and four casualty evacuation missions in the period between January and June 2022. However, as has been stated by Nina Wilén and Paul D. Williams of the International Peace Institute (IPI), MINUSMA is the only UN operation in Africa with over 1,000 European troops who cohabit with African forces—albeit often uncomfortably due to inequality that hampers coordination between African and European military units involved in the operation. 

Yet another responsibility of the UN stabilization mission in Mali is to support the country’s disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) efforts, as the mission works with Mali’s National DDR Commission, the Integration Committee, and the Security Sector Reform Commission—which were established after the singing of the Bamako Agreement in 2015—which has seen the integration of 1,735 ex-combatants into the Malian armed forces as of March of 2021.

Furthermore, the mission, “faces an increasingly difficult operating environment: the viability of the Algiers Agreement is in severe doubt, levels of violence are rising, the junta is asserting its power, and Malian security forces are regularly accused of committing massacres, recently with Wagner Group mercenaries.” More specifically, coups d’état in August 2020 and May 2021 have resulted in delays in the implementation of reforms and in an extension in the transition calendar established in the August 2020 coup, which provided for elections to be held by February of 2022. 

As a result, efforts to implement the Algiers Accord have stagnated, with the Algiers Accord Monitoring Committee not having met since October of 2021. In addition, as a result of military coups in 2020 and 2021, the Wagner Group—a Russian private military company linked to the Kremlin—arrived in Mali late last year in order to, “shore up its domestic political positions rather than to meaningfully address insecurity in the country,” as was argued earlier this year by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Jared Thompson, Catrina Doxsee, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. As such, according to a June report on Mali’s security situation by the UN Secretary-General, “there has been little progress in moving forward the reform agenda emanating from the national dialogue,” though the transitional President, Colonel Assimi Goïta. 

Furthermore, as was noted in the Secretary-General’s June report, in order to address the, “increase in severe human rights violations and abuses…during this reporting period,” the Malian authorities need to better, “ensure that human rights and international humanitarian law are fully adhered to in the conduct of military operations, to systematically carry out thorough investigations into any allegation of violations and abuses, and to hold all perpetrators accountable in accordance with Mali’s laws and international commitments.”

In sum, while MINUSMA has made some strides, the most recent quarterly report from the UN Secretary-General said that, “while considerable efforts have been made over the past decade…the crisis has unfortunately grown in complexity, both on the security and governance fronts,” and that, “the people of Mali have suffered greatly, and the situation has generated frustration with the limited results that have been achieved and a strong yearning for lasting solutions.” 

In the end, the Secretary-General’s report remarked that, “the reporting period was characterized by heightened tensions between Mali and some of its partners, which culminated in the decision to withdraw Operation Barkhane and the Takuba Task Force from Malian territory,” which will, “create a security gap, with implications for MINUSMA.” Specifically, as was stated by MINUSMA’s spokesperson Olivier Salgado, “the withdrawal of French forces in Mali will have an impact on the mission.” As the French former commander of Operation Licorne in Côte d’Ivoire further explained, “when [MINSUMA] suffered attacks, it was the French troops who intervened to ward off the danger,” and that, according to one security specialist based in Bamako, “it is Barkhane which provides air support [to MINSUMA] thanks to its fighter planes and its attack helicopters. In the Kidal region, for example, the UN mission has only one civilian helicopter which is not equipped with missiles.” Ultimately, while France is not withdrawing entirely from the Sahel, their withdrawal from Mali will result in a much more complex security situation facing UN peacekeepers moving forward, especially as the Security Council considers yet another mandate renewal for the stabilization mission.

Military Missions in Mali – G5 Sahel Joint Force

The next major military mission operating in Mali is the G5 Sahel Joint Force, which formed in 2017 as a regional initiative of Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Chad—specifically as an offshoot of the G5 Sahel, which is a multilateral regional framework for the coordination of regional development and security policies. The G5 Sahel Joint Force (FC-G5S) was specifically established, “to respond to the expansion of armed and violent extremist groups and to the deteriorating security situation in the region.” The essential idea behind the creation of the G5 Sahel Joint Force was that, “militants had demonstrated their transnational capacity by launching attacks against Nigerien and Burkinabe security forces, demonstrating the need for a more robust transnational response,” and that, “by consolidating existing cross-border operations, [the G5 Sahel Joint Force] formally enables hot pursuit operations on neighbouring soil, up to 50km on each side of the border.” In addition, FC-G5S receives international support from MINUSMA, which provides the Joint Force with fuel and rations, engineering support, as well as casualty evacuation and support. 

Despite the G5 Sahel Joint Force mainly being a cross-border force focused on the fight against extremist jihadist groups in the entire Sahel region, its member states—as was recently argued by the non-profit Security Council Report—have been beset by increasing divisions. More recently, the G5 Sahel—which has not convened a high-level meeting since November of last year—saw Mali decide to withdraw from all G5 Sahel operations in May, including the Joint Force, which, according to Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, Assistant UN Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations, “is most certainly a step back for the Sahel.” 

Furthermore, as was noted in the most recent report on the “Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel,” by the UN Secretary-General, “while the [Joint Force] remains an important initiative…[the Secretary-General] is deeply concerned by the rapidly deteriorating security situation in the Sahel, as well as by the potentially debilitating effect that the uncertain political situation in Mali, Burkina Faso and beyond will have on efforts to further operationalize the G5 Sahel Joint Force and to address the underlying causes of instability and improve governance.” 

Ultimately, the G5 Sahel Joint Force may be barely holding itself together with the withdrawal of France’s troop contingent and Mali’s pullback from the organization, as coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, when coupled with the fact that, “the G5 Sahel defence ministers have not met since November 2021, and the annual heads of state summit of the G5 Sahel, usually held in February, has not yet taken place”, it speaks to an underlying lack of unity amongst the G5 Sahel members. Furthermore, that  lack of unity is unlikely to resolve itself soon, as democratic transitions in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali still remain largely hypothetical, with the most recent Secretary-General’s report noting that, “persisting differences between the transition authority in Mali and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) over the duration of the transition,” are impacting, “the dynamics among States members of the G5 Sahel and rendered the identification of common objectives and the definitions of a shared vision for the future of the Joint Force more challenging.” In light of these difficulties, it will be hard to rely on the FC-G5S to do much to reduce the threat of extremist violence in the region anytime in the near future. 

Military Missions in Mali – EU Training Mission in Mali

Yet another multilateral military mission running in Mali is the EU Training Mission in Mali (EUTM Mali), which began in 2013; the goal of which is to support the continued development of the Malian armed forces. The EU Training Mission comes a result of UN Security Council Resolution 2071, which called on regional and international organizations to provide assistance and support for the development of the FAMA—and was echoed in European Parliament Resolution 22 in November 2012 calling for an operation to support, in conjunction with ECOWAS, the restructuring of the Malian armed forces to enable it to regain control over its territory. 

These resolutions eventually led to European Council Decision 2013/34/CFSP in January of 2013, which outlined the structure of the EU military training mission and set the objective of responding to the operational needs of the FAMA through the provision of training support for the benefit of the Malian armed forces as well as training and advice on command and control; logistics and human resources; and training on International Humanitarian law, as well as the protection of civilians and human rights. As a result, the first EUTM Mali troops arrived in the country on February 8, 2013, and the European Council subsequently adopted Council Decision 2013/87/CFSP, officially launching the training mission on February 18, 2013—which has seen approximately 700 soldiers from twenty-five European countries contribute towards the professionalization of the Malian Armed Forces as well as work towards the implementation of the 2015 Algiers Peace Agreement. Since that time, however, the results of the training mission have been mixed, oftentimes due to insufficient political will among the Malian government to implement security sector or defense sector reforms (SSR/DSR). 

As noted in an excellent background paper from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s Virginie Baudais and Souleymane Maïga, the two authors note that the training mission’s first two mandates restricted  the mission’s efforts to the southern parts of Mali and focused on training and capacity building in areas such as logistics and human resources, international humanitarian law and human rights, and command and control. Specifically, the mandate restricted EUTM troops from engaging in combat operations alongside their Malian trainees. 

The training mission’s third mandate extension expanded its area of operations up to the Niger River loop near Gao and Timbuktu after the adoption of Council Decision 2016/446/CFSP in March of 2016 as the EUTM began to support the G5 Sahel Joint Force as well as assist in the G5’s DDR process. This was followed by a fourth mandate extension in 2018 for two more years, which was authorized by Council Decision 2018/716/CFSP in May of that year. Under that renewed mandate, the training mission was to provide training and advice support for the benefit of the FAMA as well as support to the G5 Sahel in standing up the G5 Sahel Joint Force. 

Finally, in 2020, the European Council decided to extend the mandate of the EUTM Mali until May 18, 2024. As part of that mandate extension, the training mission’s area of operations was expanded to cover the entirety of the country as well as the other G5 Sahel countries. Moreover, as was noted in the SIPRI paper, EUTM Mali, “has been mandated to provide military training and advice not only to the JF-G5S but also to the national armed forces of the G5 Sahel countries. What’s more, the EUTM’s activities in Mali were expanded to include the provision to the FAMA of, “military advice, training, including pre-deployment training, education and mentoring, through non-executive accompaniment up to the tactical level, in order for the EUTM Mali to be able to follow up on the activities of the FAMA and to monitor its performance and behaviour, including with regard to the respect for human rights and international humanitarian law.”

As was noted in the SIPRI paper from Baudais and Maïga, while EUTM Mali focused on the building of legitimate, efficient, and credible armed forces in Mali, the training mission’s overall effect is best viewed through its results in the areas of: stabilization, the extension of state authority and the prevention of conflict; institution building and armed forces development; security sector reform; and the protection of civilians and promotion of human rights. Over time, as the EU Training Mission’s mandate has expanded, it has grown from 500 personnel in December 2013 to over 700 in December 2021, making it the largest EU Training Mission currently in operation. As a result, as was remarked on by Baudais and Maïga, “during the eight years of its existence, EUTM Mali has supported the Malian authorities with advice, education and training. The number of soldiers trained and the good relationship established with the Malian military leaders are two of the main successes,” but that, “the achievement of the missions’ more ambitious objectives is a long-term project and will partly depend on security and political developments in the region.”

In terms of stabilization and the extension of state authority, Baudais and Maïga note that while the training mission is not specifically instructed to contribute to the stabilization of Mali, its long-term aim is the strengthening of the Malian armed forces, which will contribute to making the security situation in the country more stable. To that end, the authors remark that while the FAMA’s return to the northern part of the conflict as a “reconstituted army”—composed of an equal ratio of FAMA soldiers and ex-fighters demobilized from the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) and a coalition of pro-government armed groups called the Platform—has been challenged by, “a lack of trust between signatory groups and groups close to the government, as well as by Malian officials,” are still ongoing, a confidential UN report from just before the August 2020 coup accused some Malian officials of delaying implementation of the 2015 Algiers Agreement, including deployment of reconstituted units to the north. As a consequence, Baudais and Maïga assert, “security is generally provided by self-defence groups and militias in central Mali, by signatory and non-signatory groups in nomad and rural areas, and by the FAMA in mostly urban areas of Mali.”

When it comes to institution building and FAMA development—an area of real progress for the EUTM—the SIPRI paper notes that in the first six years of the training mission, EUTM Mali had trained approximately 14,000 of Mali’s soldiers, representing around ⅔ of the armed forces, which has resulted in tactical and operational improvements by the FAMA, as well as improvements to FAMA readiness. However, despite this, the mission faces a number of challenges, starting with the fact that the training sessions provided by EU trainers are, “often seen as irrelevant to the local context,” as well as, “usually quite short – from a couple of weeks to the human rights and gender course to train the trainers that only lasts for three days,” as was noted in a 2018 paper by EUNPACK’s Morten Bøås, Abdoul Wahab Cissé, Aboubacar Diallo, Bård Drange, Frida Kvamme and Eva Stambøl. 

Furthermore, Baudais and Maïga note that Malian interlocutors remarked that training had become less adapted to actual needs since the outset of the EUTM, specifically noting insufficient consultation and information sharing between EUTM Mali and FAMA, with a specific feeling from FAMA partners that they were not being listed to. Moreover, as was noted in the SIPRI paper, “EU Military Training Missions: A Synthesis Report,” the EU Training Mission’s,, “four- to six-month rotations risk undermining operational continuity as they do not allow missions to develop local expertise, hinder the establishment of sustainable relationships with local counterparts and prevent the building of institutional knowledge and memory. This has a particular impact on the effectiveness of EUTM advisors, which deepens to a large extent on relationships and mutual trust, and the consistency and overall coherence of the advisory role.” 

Other challenges include the fact that EUTM Mali is centralized in Bamako, with no field offices, making it difficult to contribute to stabilization efforts outside of the central part of the country. What’s more, Baudais and Maïga state that FAMA faces recruitment problems, which are exacerbated by limited staffing, budgets, and equipment; poor troop behavior; weak human resources management, and governance issues. Finally, these issues are compounded by the fact that EUTM Mali has no system in place to track trainees, “or one for advising and mentoring trainees after their deployment. Nor is there any way to assess or evaluate trainees, or monitor attrition in the field.” While the EUTM’s fifth mandate extension provides for the, “non-executive accompaniment up to the tactical level,” of Malian forces to monitor their performance and adherence to their human rights training and IHL, it is merely a first step and requires EUTM Mali’s Commander to be aggressive in conducting monitoring missions in the field. 

When it comes to security and defense sector reforms, Baudais and Maïga argue that since 2012, “a lack of political will and ownership combined with political instability have not facilitated the implementation of the SSR process,” and that when it comes to EUTM Mali, its, “role in the reform of the Malian defence sector is limited: its mandate does not focus on the SSR – DDR process, but it does participate in the MINUSMA-driven process along with other peace operations.” As part of such efforts, EUTM Mali is part of DDR efforts to train ex-combatants throughout the country. However, “resistance to change was notable in, among other things, projects that aim to promote better governance and fight corruption. For example, EUTM Mali tried to promote the establishment of a new payroll system, which could help to fight corruption, and eventually abandoned the project due to recurrent accusations of salary embezzlement by the military leadership.” 

Finally, in terms of the protection of civilians and the promotion of human rights, EUTM Mali’s inability to monitor the performance and behavior of FAMA trainees has largely hindered the mission’s ability to address credible accusations of human rights abuses by FAMA units. As noted above, while the training mission’s fifth mandate provides for “non-executive accompaniment” of FAMA units, an underlying issue remains that, “EUTM Mali is not in charge of the selection of trainees,” and that while MINUSMA has set up a UN-sponsored vetting process to ensure that trainees have not committed gross human rights violations, “EUTM Mali has so far not been able to use the results for its selection process.” Ultimately, without a reporting system and reliable data, supported by EUTM trainer accompaniment on FAMA missions, it is difficult to judge the true impact of EUTM Mali training on the protection of civilians and the promotion of human rights; though the Moura massacre would seem to indicate that such efforts have done little to truly impact the MAFA. 

As concluded in Baudais and Maïga’s paper, while it is inarguable that EUTM Mali has had some degree of tactical success, enabling the FAMA to better repel non-state armed groups attacks, the FAMA still faces a number of challenges as shown by the high number of human rights violations perpetrated by its soldiers. Therefore, while the mission may have had some successes, it is not doing enough to train the FAMA to protect civilians living in Mali. 

Military Missions in Mali – Operation Barkhane and Task Force Takuba

Finally, there are the two French-led missions in Mali, both of which have come to an end in Mali as the French withdraw from the country and the Malian authorities withdraw their approval for the presence of French military operators. This has led other European participants in Operation Barkhane and Task Force Takuba to begin a coordinated withdrawal of their military resources from Malian territory. 

Operation Barkhane—which was created following the dissolution of Operation Serval in 2014— was founded as, “a French anti-jihadist operation primarily focused on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.” However, as the insurgency spread across the entire Sahel region, eleven EU countries issued a statement calling for the creation of a task force aimed at tackling terrorist in the Liptako region. 

As was noted in these pages earlier last year, French successes in Mali were largely confined to 2013-2014’s Operation Serval, which saw France and Mali eject jihadist militants from the northern parts of the country. While Operation Barkhane did have some high-profile successes, such as the killings of jihadist leaders Abdelmalek Droukdel and Bah Ag Mousssa, it was largely unable to change the overall security picture in the country, as jihadist violence continues to spread throughout the country, especially as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara continues to conduct offensive operations in the border area between Mali and Niger. 

Source: https://africacenter.org/spotlight/trajectories-of-violence-against-civilians-by-africas-militant-islamist-groups/
Source: https://africacenter.org/spotlight/trajectories-of-violence-against-civilians-by-africas-militant-islamist-groups/

As mentioned above, failures to change the security situation in Mali—coupled with the repeated coups, the Malian military’s inability to agree on a transition to civilian rule, and the arrival of Russian private military company Wagner Group—have resulted in European partners pulling out of the only major military operation that provides for European troops to accompany FAMA troops into the field . As such, while the European efforts to promote stability in Mali have been far too securitized, even missions that were primarily meant to be military-forward—such as France’s Barkhane and Takuba—still were not able to fundamentally change the security situation in the country.

Why International Efforts Failed

Ultimately, while there are specific reasons why each individual international military operation in Mali has largely failed, there are some more general conclusions that can be reached about why European efforts to transform Mali’s security sector did so poorly. 

To begin, the biggest problem facing Mali’s European partners was a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives instability in Mali. As was noted in a December 2020 brief by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Judd Devermont and Marielle Harris, “in mid-2012, when al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its allies seized control of the major cities in northern Mali and enforced their version of Sharia (Islamic law), there was overwhelming international consensus to halt the jihadists’ advance and reverse their control of key strongholds.” However, while international efforts have eliminated prominent targets such as Abdelmalek Droukdel and Bah Ag Moussa, it has failed to bring about stability in Mali, meaning that terrorism is not the sole, or even primary, reason for Mali’s instability. 

Instead of responding to the country’s governance crisis, European interlocutors responded seemingly in the only way that they know how: with a militarized response instead of focusing on the governance issues plaguing the country. As such, European aid programs in Mali too often focused on issues of import to European capitals, such as efforts to address security and migration issues instead of the ongoing state legitimacy crisis in Mali. What’s more, as was argued by the United States Institute of Peace’s Ena Dion and Emily Cole, “resources funneled so heavily to the Malian security sector—due to donor pressure on the Malina government to increase its own investment in military and police solutions to the nation’s challenges—eroded state legitimacy in the eyes of the public,” as, “since the 2012 coup, Mali has more than doubled its military spending as a percentage of its GDP, even as insecurity hampered economic growth. Those increases in security spending left the government less able to provide badly needed public services like food, water, education, and economic development.”

While violent extremism is certainly a factor in Mali’s instability, it is not the major one. Instead, it is the government’s persistent inability to deliver governance and services for its citizens that drives instability in Mali, as it does elsewhere throughout the region. Further, while it is difficult for the government to provide essential services in areas under the threat of jihadist attack, efforts to stabilize areas under jihadist control cannot exclusively be counter-terrorism-focused, and must include more work to implement the 2015 Algiers Agreement, including efforts to disarm, demobilize, and reintegrate former extremist fighters into the FAMA. 

However, as of 2020, just twenty-three percent of the Algiers Agreement’s provisions had been put into effect, and, “the path forward on the most critical, often-postponed issues—especially the future of the DDR process, which lies at the heart of the agreement—remains unclear,” as was noted in an August 2021 report by the Carter Center, the designated Independent Observer responsible for evaluating and reporting on implementation of the seventy-eight individual commitments in the 2015 Agreement. Further, as was pointed out in a 2017 commentary by Annelies Hickendorff and Jaïr van der Lijn, the current DDR process does not incorporate the needs and motivations of individual combatants, as surveys in 2016 showed that, “formed jihadists mentioned poverty, the absence of state services, unemployment and the need for protection and belonging as the most important reasons to join an extremist organization.” As such, in a country where, “more than €750 can be earned for information that can be used to target MINUSMA or Barkhane convoys, €1,500 for a landmine and more than €30,000 for a valuable hostage – considerable sums in a region where the minimum wage is less than €50 a month,” DDR efforts need to better take into account the underlying conditions in Mali. Furthermore, with over 85,000 combatants registered by signatories to the Algiers Agreement, DDR will remain a vital issue for Bamako to solve if it wants to see more stability in Mali’s periphery. 

While MINUSMA was a relatively successful peace operation up until 2016, after that point its, “effectiveness in terms of stabilization and the [protection of civilians] has decreased,” according to a 2019 report by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Specifically, as was noted in MINUSMA’s most recent quarterly report, reports of human rights violations by the Malian armed forces have increased from just thirty-one between October and December of 2021 to 320 in the most recent quarter. Furthermore, in the aftermath of the Moura massacre and the involvement and participation of Wagner mercenaries, MINUSMA’s relationship with the junta in Bamako is likely to be even further strained, making implementation of the Algiers Agreement, a vital precondition to peace in Mali, an even more difficult proposition than it had been previously.

One of the essential problems moving forward is that if MINUSMA—the largest military mission in Mali at over 15,000 military and civilian personnel—has been unable to help implement the Algiers Agreement and provide stability in the country, how will the UN do so once France and other European nations pull their support from Task Force Takuba and EUTM Mali and the military government in Bamako drifts towards Moscow’s orbit. Absent credible European military operations, the G5 Sahel Joint Force may end up as the primary security partner for MINSUMA, though that body’s unity may be in question in recent months with the lack of high-level meetings between member heads of state, and is beset by increasing divisions. 

As such, the MINUSMA mandate renewal, which is expected to occur at the end of this month, will need to, “reinforce the urgency of progress on the reforms needed to undertake legitimate elections while also providing diplomatic support to ECOWAS in negotiation on a consensual transition timetable,” as was noted in a recent piece from the International Peace Institute (IPI), Security Council Report, and the Stimson Center. 

If the UN Security Council is going to renew MINSUMA’s mandate, it must consider a few key modifications to the mission’s goals and methods, starting with striking a balance between working with the junta to come to an agreement on a transition period and working on implementation of the 2015 Algiers Agreement. As explained in the piece from IPI, Security Council Report, and Stimson Center, these items are interlinked but often treated as separate issues; going forward, they must be treated as two sides of the same coin if there is to be any progress in stabilizing the country.

Furthermore, as was noted in the same report, a mandate renewal must come with a renewed focus on the protection of civilians in armed conflict and engagement on human rights issues. Especially after the Moura massacre, if the UN is going to remain as a partner of the FAMA, more needs to be done to ensure that civilians will not be targeted in operations by the Malian armed forces. However, as Bamako had previously denied the UN access to Moura to investigate the alleged atrocity, it does not bode well for increasing cooperation between the UN and Bamako on human rights issues. Finally, a MINUSMA mandate extension must address the forces inability to deal with threats such as improvised explosive devices and rockets, which could force it to adopt a bunker mentality as it focuses on force protection rather than reform of Mali’s security sector. 

With the withdrawal of major troop contributors from EUTM Mali, Mali pulling back from the G5 Sahel, and France wrapping up its major operations in Mali, MINUSMA threatens to remain the only major international stabilization in operation in Mali, which would be a catastrophe for the civilian population. While it is certainly true that the international community’s response to instability in Mali was to focus too much on providing capabilities to the FAMA, it is equally valid to say that security sector reform and improvements in Malian governance are unlikely to come without some kind of international military support. 

Final Thoughts

Therefore, Mali’s international partners have a huge choice facing them moving forward: whether to continue to provide the FAMA with equipment and training despite nearly a decade of efforts in the country. As was remarked on in a June 2020 piece by Denis M. Tull of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, there exists:

“the apparent paradox that the situation in the Sahel is steadily deteriorating despite the fact that the international community has enlarged and deepened its footprint. It is fair to say that the interveners have barely changed their course of action over the past couple of years, beyond minor adjustments. Their reasoning always seems to be that their involvement in the Sahel must be expanded and intensified. The less the situation resembles their objectives, the more that needs to be done. In order to make progress on ideas of local ownership and responsibility, however, an alternative strategy should be at least conceivable. This does not necessarily mean an abrupt withdrawal, but it does mean addressing the indirect and unintended consequences that external actors have on the strategies and behaviors of local protagonists.”

As such, if the international community is intending to try to work with the military government in Bamako, there are a number of things that need to change, moving forward. To begin, as was noted in a 2020 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project piece, “broad-based military operations accompanied by gross human rights violations alienate local populations and undermine any short-term gains they might achieve.” Therefore, any discussion about a return of Mali to the JF-G5S or a return of the EU Training Mission would have to begin with an agreement between the international community and Bamako on fostering more respect for human rights amongst the FAMA. 

Such a conversation with Bamako’s military leadership should make clear that the international community’s provision of security forces, equipment, and training  is contingent on the Malian armed forces adherence to international humanitarian law, which must be strictly monitored through mechanisms to track trainees behavior in operations following their work with international military trainers. 

Furthermore, any continued partnership with a military government in Mali must address the fact that, “the Malian Government, and, by proxy, international counter-terrorism support, insufficiently distinguishes between Islamism and the legitimate concerns of sections of the Malian population. These grievances are, in turn, exploited by “terrorist” actors. This has amplified inter-communal violence, further radicalised parts of the population, and led to mass internal displacement.” 

Nearly ten years of militarized support to the Malian government has very little to show for it, especially in Menaka and Gao regions, “where there have already been more civilians killed by Islamist groups in 2022 than in any previous year.” Indeed, it is likely that Western military operations in the country have ultimately contributed to the increasing political instability and violence. Therefore, while threatening a complete withdrawal of all Western military units from Mali until Bamako agrees to a political transition and agrees on the primacy of the protection of civilians in FAMA training may risk abandoning a population that has already suffered at the hands of jihadists, Russian mercenaries, and their own armed forces, keeping the same militarized stabilization response in Mali would simply be doubling down on an idea that has not achieved results after nearly a decade. 

The European Council on Foreign Relations’ Andrew Lebovich and Theodore Murphy wrote earlier this week that the EU, “will need to compromise with Sahelian governments on one values-based aspect of its foreign policy – supporting democracy – to sustain a different one: stabilisation missions that may protect civilians, demonstrate Europe’s merit as a stalwart ally to the Sahelian people (not only their governments), and support multilateralism (by finding a modus vivendi with Mali’s junta government as regards MINUSMA).” However, this is the exact kind of thinking that resulted in the current situation—the argument that all morals and values can and must be sacrificed in order to provide “security”, despite the fact that unconditional security sector assistance has largely enabled the abuses by Malian security forces, which are ultimately the underlying driver of instability in the first place. 

Furthermore, as was pointed out by Denis. M. Tull is another piece for the The French Military School Strategic Research Institute, there are two sets of factors that explain the poor results of international security assistance programs in Mali. The first is the fact that many of the causes of FAMA dysfunction are related to, “the halting peace process and the legacies preceding and contributing to the current crisis such as the political economy of the Malian state. For example, outsiders simply have little leverage in revamping the FAMA’s human resource management against the resistance of vested interests.” The second is the fact that international military missions in Mali need to be less risk-averse if they want to be successful, with Tull noting that, “not many EU members states are prepared to take the political risk to put their troops in harm’s way for the sake of Mali or the Sahel, for that matter.” As such, if Mali’s international partners want to eventually resume some form of security assistance, they too will have to be willing to do more than they have in the past. 

However, ultimately, unless and until the military government in Bamako recognizes its own part in failures to change Mali’s security sector and restore stability to the country, the international community would be much better served by halting its security sector assistance with Mali and focusing more on development and providing what humanitarian assistance it can absent a robust military presence. The international community cannot force Bamako to want to make these desperately needed changes; change must, instead, come from within.

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Humanitarian Notification and Beyond: The Protection of Aid Organizations Operating in Conflict Zones

June 10, 2022

Back on January 27, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin directed the Department of Defense (DoD) to develop a Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan (CHMRAP) to, “improve [DoDs] approach to civilian harm mitigation and response and…inform completion of a forthcoming DoD Instruction (DoDI) on Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response.” As Secretary Austin said in the closing of his memo, “the protection of innocent civilians in the conduct of our operations remains vital to the ultimate success of our operations and as a significant strategic and moral imperative.”

With the U.S. mission in Afghanistan having finally wound down, Secretary Austin may well have had the protection of civilians (PoC) in armed conflict at the forefront of his mind. However, it may have also been due to concerns which were voiced by key members of Congressional oversight committees, such as Senators Elizabeth Warren of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Chris Murphy on Senate Foreign Relations, or Representative Ro Khanna on House Armed Services. Secretary Austin’s recently renewed interest in the protection of civilians in armed conflict may have also come because of recent advocacy from non-governmental organizations such as the Center for Civilians in Conflict, Human Rights Watch, Airwars, the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, and others. Finally, the Secretary’s sudden interest in prioritizing the protection of civilians in armed conflict may have been due to unflattering examinations of collateral damage caused by the U.S. during its two decades of conflict in the Middle East. 

Whatever the case may be for DoD’s renewed interest in the protection of civilians in armed conflict, the important thing is that the Pentagon is finally getting around to the inescapable fact that PoC issues are some of the most pressing in modern armed conflict—despite being largely ignored over two decades of U.S. fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and elsewhere. Moving forward, if the Pentagon wishes to take steps to address long-standing problems with the U.S. military’s failure to uphold international humanitarian law and its responsibilities towards civilians living in war zones, it will need to do more to improve the protection of humanitarian organizations providing assistance to civilians in armed conflict. 

As noted in an excellent report from Larry Lewis of the CNA Corporation, “Improving Protection of Humanitarian Organizations in Armed Conflict,” from March of this year, “despite their vital importance to civilians and their protected status, humanitarian organizations—including hospitals, medical care workers, and organizations providing food and other essential supplies—are regularly attacked and harassed in armed conflicts.” While some of these attacks are deliberate or reckless, others are tragic mistakes that still result in horrific human consequences

Source: https://www.msf.org/afghanistan-msf-releases-internal-review-kunduz-hospital-attack
U.S. Airstrike on MSF Hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan/Source: https://www.msf.org/afghanistan-msf-releases-internal-review-kunduz-hospital-attack

Therefore, while the protection of civilians in armed conflict is an important task—and one that the Pentagon seems to finally be taking with the seriousness it deserves—there not only needs to be a focus on the protection of civilian noncombatant residents of areas experiencing conflict, but on the protection of those administering vital medical and social services to those civilians living in conflict-affected areas. While the protection of civilians in U.S. and NATO military operations is something that has been discussed in these pages before, the protection of NGOs and humanitarian organizations in areas undergoing armed conflict is also worth some investigation, as those groups often not only provide vital services to civilians suffering through armed conflict, but they also provide critical, “perspectives regarding how civilians are affected by armed conflict, and…inform DoD’s approaches to mitigating and responding to civilian harm.” Therefore, it is worth diving into Lewis’ excellent March report for CNA Corporation to examine the ways in which the U.S. can better work with humanitarian organizations in order to reduce the frequency of such accidental (and sometimes deliberate) catastrophes. 

To begin, Lewis notes that in order to avoid mistakes such as the Saudi-led coalitions’ allegedly accidental bombing of a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) mobile clinic back in 2015, there not only needs to be the creation of improved communications channels between humanitarian organizations and militaries, but that more work needs to be done to strengthen deconfliction in military training; stronger tools need to be developed to help militaries recognize humanitarian organizations operating on the battlefield; and more work needs to be done to reinforce learning and accountability measures to reduce the risk of attacks on humanitarian organizations and the disruption of their humanitarian assistance operations. 

When it comes to improving lines of communication between militaries and humanitarian organizations, Lewis argues that there are essentially two systems of communication that strengthen the protection of humanitarian organizations in conflict: humanitarian notification and civil-military coordination. Here, Lewis notes that while humanitarian workers are meant to be respected and protected under international humanitarian law (IHL), too often such individuals are under threat of physical attack or subject to restricted movement, despite having communicated to militaries in the area their locations and activities. As Lewis notes, these challenges can arise for a number of different reasons, ranging from incompatible notification systems among different humanitarian organizations, changing submissions formats and requirements, and slow reporting on and distribution of humanitarian organizations’ submissions to militaries—all of which result in a lack of trust between humanitarian organizations and the militaries they provide notification to. 

In light of these challenges, Lewis argues, there is a need for a new humanitarian notification system (HNS) that can help address these challenges of civil-military coordination in order to provide militaries with the information that they need to avoid inadvertently targeting and striking humanitarian organizations operating in their theaters. As argued by Naysan Adlparvar in their intriguing August 2020 report, “Humanitarian Civil-Military Information-Sharing in Complex Emergencies: Realities, Strategies, and Risks,” the author states that, not only is, “information sharing between humanitarian and military actors…an increasingly common and required component in the delivery of humanitarian assistance,” but that, “the literature highlights that civil-military coordination and information sharing have been deeply impacted by the growing scale and nature of military involvement in humanitarian response since the US-led intervention in Afghanistan began in 2001,” and that while the presence of military grows in these situations, “so does the need for humanitarians to engage with them.” Furthermore, as argued by Paul A. Gaist and Ramey L. Wilson in a 2016 piece for National Defense University’s Joint Force Quarterly, the humanitarian community and the military, “must find mutually acceptable ways to establish productive working relationships or, at the very least, to co-exist in ways that do not increase the risks to our workers and/or our humanitarian objectives.”

As such, Lewis proposes the introduction of CNA’s new humanitarian notification system which aims to use blockchain technology to provide incorruptible records of information submitted to the system, creating an audit trail that can be leveraged by humanitarian organizations and militaries alike in order to promote better learning and accountability for attacks that do occur on NGOs and civilian organizations. However, as Naysan Adlparvar’s report notes, “one of the main concerns with notification is the problem of the so-called ‘black box’. It is very difficult to assess if humanitarian notification is working or not. In order to assess if humanitarian notification is effective, we need to know what is done with the information once it is received by parties to the conflict.”

To avoid the “black box” problem, CNA Corporation’s prototype HNS includes the total number of messages transmitted, compared against the total number of messages received by a particular party; the percentage of messages that were followed by an indication that it was received by the recipient; the average delay between submission of a message to a conflict party and the conflict party sending a receipt of that submission; the number of cases where humanitarian organizations were attacked over a particular period of time; and the number of cases where humanitarian organizations were interfered with or harassed over select periods of time. All of these metrics are meant to provide greater transparency and more accountability for civil-military communication, ensuring that both militaries and humanitarian organizations can have a better understanding of when and why militaries do not incorporate and act on location and activity data submitted by humanitarian organizations.

A new humanitarian notification system can also help strengthen deconfliction in military training and targeting processes, which is vital to avoid mistakes like the U.S. air strike on the MSF hospital in Yemen back in 2015. Up until this point, the avoidance of such tragedies has been reliant upon the creation of two major deconfliction processes: no-strike lists (NSL) and restricted target lists (RTL). No strike lists are a, “list of objects or entities characterized as protected from the effects of military operations under international law and/or rules of engagement,” while restricted target lists are a, “list of restricted targets nominated by elements of the joint force and approved by the joint force commander or directed by higher authorities.” Entities or objects on a restricted target list are those that may be struck, but that usually require that the specific timing or method of engagement be considered carefully, such as when striking a weapons cache that may result in secondary explosions which could damage nearby civilians or structures.

However, to truly understand the relative benefits and drawbacks of no-strike and restricted target lists, one must first understand how the lists are built, maintained, and then used by militaries and humanitarian organizations on the ground. As Lewis states, no-strike and restricted target lists are generally developed by intelligence analysts in coordination with other government agencies and humanitarian organizations that may have knowledge about the civilian objects, humanitarian organizations, or cultural sites in a potential target area. These protected sites include hospitals; schools; religious sites; critical national infrastructure such as dams and power stations; as well as cultural sites. As these objects are known quantities, targets on NSLs should include the location of the object on the list, its function, and a point of contact for the humanitarian organization operating it. Restricted target lists, on the other hand, contain politically sensitive targets which may be valid military targets, but that are either close to no-strike list entities, or could have a negative effect if attacked without caution, such as a weapons cache with the potential for secondary explosions. As such, an RTL should include why such a target is restricted along with special considerations that need to be included when attacking objects on or close to a restricted target list. 

Such lists also need to be routinely maintained, with militaries providing humanitarian organizations a reliable, externally facing contact that can be reached at all times in order to ensure uninterrupted communication in times of crisis. In addition, Lewis argues, militaries must be required to acknowledge that they have received information submitted by humanitarian organizations, reducing the concerns of NGOs operating in the area as well as building trust between militaries and aid organizations. 

Finally, these lists must be properly used, with military commanders ensuring that tactical decision makers have full access to these lists in order to aid in deconfliction and eliminate the chances for the type of tragedy that occurs when militaries accidentally attack humanitarian aid workers. While no-strike lists are usually housed at higher level headquarters, decisions are not confined to those headquarters, meaning that lower-level commanders and operators must have access to this vitally needed information; otherwise, situations such as the March 2017 air strike on Tabqa Dam in Syria—called in by U.S. special forces operators on the ground despite the dam being on the no-strike list—may very well happen again. 

Improving the process of deconfliction through the development of a more well-defined humanitarian notification system would not only improve the creation of no-strike lists—as an HNS would standardize information received by militaries—but it would also improve pattern of life analyses, which utilizes surveillance tools to understand the movements and locations of individuals and groups over a given period of time. The inclusion of location and activity information from humanitarian organizations in the development of no-strike and restricted-strike lists are vital to protect against the misidentification of aid workers as potential military targets. Finally, Lewis argues that a more feature-rich HNS would help militaries integrate such information into their overall operational picture, giving them a better understanding of the overall operating environment.

Source: https://www.justsecurity.org/78937/hidden-negligence-aug-29-drone-strike-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/
Source: https://www.justsecurity.org/78937/hidden-negligence-aug-29-drone-strike-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/

In addition to better tools for deconfliction of humanitarian entities, Lewis also proposes that militaries develop better tools for recognizing humanitarian organizations in conflict-affected areas even without those groups’ input. As such, Lewis proposes that militaries make better use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to help military sensors and systems identify protected symbols like the Red Cross/Red Crescent or Blue Shield for cultural heritage sites. While the author acknowledges that this would not mean that such a system could not be abused—as the Iraqi military in 2003 misused, “protected symbols for impartial humanitarian organizations (e.g., Red Crescent), and place[d] equipment in protected sites—it would provide an added degree of safety for humanitarian organizations and their employees operating in conflict-affected areas. 

In addition to the creation of these tools, Lewis also proposes that more be done to reinforce accountability for when mistakes do happen, whether due to deliberate or reckless behavior; or whether merely due to a failure to follow existing guidelines. To do so, he proposes that governments and militaries commit to tracking incidents more closely to confirm if and when strikes on humanitarian organizations occur; that governments and militaries work to determine exactly what happened when a strike on a humanitarian organization does occur, including Identifying trends that may indicate why such incidents happen in the first place and determining whether incidents happen more often via air strike or ground-based strike; that governments and militaries commit to providing compensation and assistance to victims, as well as communicating the results of internal investigations—even, and perhaps especially, when individuals are held to account for their mistakes; and that humanitarian actors, government, and security forces commit to regular dialogue in order to clearly communicate the challenges and concerns both the military and humanitarian organizations are experiencing. In general, a thorough accounting of any failures must be clearly and publicly communicated to aid organizations and the general public in order to build trust. 

Source: https://www.humanitarianoutcomes.org/sites/default/files/publications/figures_at_glance_2021.pdf
Source: https://www.humanitarianoutcomes.org/sites/default/files/publications/figures_at_glance_2021.pdf

Promoting Partner Nation Accountability

However, it is not just during U.S. military operations when harm occurs to civilians and humanitarian organizations. As Lewis notes, harm done to aid providers by partner forces both damages U.S. goals in the region and undercuts the strategic success of partners by creating grievances among the civilian population, which can ultimately prolong a conflict. As such, the author proposes that nations providing security assistance work with their partners in four distinct ways to promote learning and accountability. Interestingly, many of the concepts that Lewis examines here have been advocated earlier in the excellent, “The Protection of Civilians in U.S. Partnered Operations,” by Melissa Dalton, Jenny McAvoy, Daniel Mahanty, Hijab Shah, Kelsey Hampton, and Julie Snyder, which is also highly worth a read on its own. 

That process begins with creating a foundation for the protection of civilians and humanitarian organizations in all military assistance policies; and instilling PoC best practices in all engagement with security assistance partners, including incorporating PoC into efforts at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels so that it is incorporated into both mission planning and execution. The ultimate goal of such efforts is to ensure that civilian protection, as well as the protection of humanitarian organizations, is baked into how partner militaries operate at their most fundamental levels. 

Relatedly, Lewis’s report argues that the U.S. needs to develop the capacity to promote civilian protection with partners through the provision of training materials including recommendations for the creation of civilian harm tracking units as well as recommendations for how to integrate PoC into operational planning. He also argues that when providing military assistance, the U.S. should develop approaches that influence a partner’s conduct during operations in order to promote civilian harm mitigation best practices and avoid needless abuse of civilians or aid workers. Finally, he states that in order to increase partners’ capacity for civilian protection, the U.S. should both develop better assessment tools to leverage historical data on civilian harm incidents as well as evaluate the capacity and willingness of partners to adopt best practices in order to mitigate such risks. 

In addition to working with partner nations to promote the protection of civilians in their operations, Lewis argues that the U.S. should also work with regional leaders; multilateral organizations; major providers of military assistance such as France, the UK, Germany, Russia, and China; and cultivate international agreements which set baseline standards for the conduct of militaries engaged in armed conflict. 

Finally, Lewis argues that the U.S. needs to do more to bolster partner capacity and the will to protect civilians and humanitarian organizations in conflict-afflicted areas. Part of such efforts include: developing tools that aid partners in protecting civilians, including developing technology that helps military sensors automatically distinguish targets on no-strike or restricted-target lists; taking into account partner motivations and concerns, devising ways to promote partner willingness to incorporate PoC into how its security forces behave—including demonstrating how protecting the civilian population can be operationally expedient; and developing tailored conditionality such as the U.S. “Leahy Laws”, which prohibit the U.S., “from using funds for assistance to units of foreign security forces where there is credible information implicating that unit in the commission of gross violations of human rights.” However, Lewis also notes that conditionality can be used positively, with a country providing assistance mandating training assistance or certain tools for the protection of civilians as a prerequisite for the provision of aid.

With a strong isolationist wing building in the G.O.P, the Biden administration actually has an opportunity to use Congressional Republicans’ diminishing support for international involvement as a cudgel to convince recalcitrant security sector aid recipients that their options are either: to shape up and put PoC and the protection of humanitarian organizations at the heart of their military operations and training; or risk losing Democratic Congressional support as they face down a potential Trump, Pence, or DeSantis administration that cares little about international security assistance programs. 

General Accountability Issues

Lewis argues that even absent an active security assistance relationship, states can still take certain actions to promote accountability for harms done to civilians and humanitarian organizations. He states that states that engage in problematic or unlawful conduct should be named-and-shamed in UN reports such as the Secretary General’s annual report on Children and Armed Conflict. In addition, economic sanctions could be imposed on violators, including reductions in foreign assistance or outright cutoffs, asset freezes, revocation of most-favored-nation status, and prohibitions on credit, financing and investment. In addition, security assistance providers could begin to implement positive conditionality on their assistance programs, ensuring that recipients are aware from the outset that protection of civilians and protection of humanitarian organizations is a key priority for assistance providers. Finally, Lewis argues that crimes against civilians and humanitarian organizations can be pursued either through international tribunals such as the International Criminal Court, or even be responded to by the direct application of military force, such as when the U.S. coalition conducted air strikes on Syria in response to Bashar al-Assad’s violations of the Chemical Weapons Convention. However, Lewis is careful to note that such strikes often carry a mixed record—with Assad still likely in possession of chemical weapons despite those U.S. air strikes. 

In Lewis’s estimation, therefore, it is the creation of a new humanitarian notification system—featuring standardized reporting protocols and formats that are easily accessible to militaries—that will best create an overarching infrastructure that ensures the protection of civilians and humanitarian organizations in conflict-riddled areas. For Lewis, while international humanitarian law is a good starting point, there is too often a failure to comply with it even by countries with strong rhetorical commitments to adhering to international law such as the U.S. Therefore, a comprehensive HNS will not only help militaries avoid tragic mistakes, but it will enable accountability after strikes do occur, ensuring that there is a better understanding of whether an incident is a tragic mistake or a more deliberate error. He argues that just as states acted in conjunction 1949 to ratify the original Geneva Convention, those states with a commitment to the protection of civilians and humanitarian organizations in armed conflict must now band together to develop better systems, which enable militaries to be more accountable for attacks on civilian targets. Failure to do so will only result in continued misery for civilians and aid organizations operating in conflict zones across the world. 

Beyond the CNA Report – Issues with a Humanitarian Notification System for Deconfliction

One of the primary issues with the creation of CNA’s new prototype HNS is that such systems—albeit ones with less stringent reporting requirements—have done little when utilized in Syria and Yemen. In Naysan Adlparvar’s, Humanitarian Civil-Military Information-Sharing in Complex Emergencies, the author provides a strong critique of the system used in Syria in Yemen—the Humanitarian Notification System for Deconfliction (HNS4D). That system shared GPS data on the locations, activities, and personnel of humanitarian organizations with the warring parties for the creation of no-strike lists by each side of the conflict. However, a UN Board of Inquiry, “exploring the targeting of UN-affiliated humanitarian sites that had theoretically been deconflicted using HNS4D in Syria, determined that it was ‘highly probable’ that the majority of these sites were struck by the Syrian government or their allies.” Furthermore, one of Adlparvar’s research participants noted that, “let’s set aside the attacks on civilians for a minute and just talk about humanitarians. There is now a complete and total disregard of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), a.k.a. Law of Armed Conflict by some military actors. Russia and Syria definitively disregard IHL on a routine basis in Syria…We now have a complete and utter erosion of respect for IHL.”

Not only does Adlparvar’s report note the failure of humanitarian notification systems as they were used recently in Syria and Yemen, there are even concerns that such deconfliction systems are being misused by malicious actors like Syria, Yemen, and Russia to target humanitarian aid providers. While Lewis’ prototype HNS would provide a bit more insight into what countries are doing with the deconfliction data they receive, it would not be able to remove concerns from humanitarian organizations that by simply providing such location data that they might be targeted by countries with little respect for international humanitarian law. 

Furthermore, there is the question of whether militaries have the capacity to absorb and process the scale of information that would be involved. While Lewis’ paper on CNA’s prototype HNS does not provide specifics on the number of data sets that it would contain, Adlparvar’s paper notes that the HNS4D in Yemen is responsible for vast amounts of data, with 64,000 sites interred into it. The fundamental question, therefore, is who exactly is going to be reviewing all of this information and comparing it against target lists as they are generated on a daily basis in a conflict. 

As was noted in a February piece from Michael J. McNerney and Gabrielle Tarini for the Rand Blog, a recent, Congressionally mandated, review of DoD’s civilian casualty policies and procedures noted that, “DoD is not adequately organized, structured, or resourced to sufficiently mitigate and respond to civilian-harm issues. There are not enough personnel dedicated to civilian-harm issues full-time, and those who are responsible for civilian-harm matters often receive minimal training on those duties that they are expected to perform.” Furthermore, the RAND review found that civilian casualty tracking cells were often staffed by junior personnel with little actual training on the responsibilities they would be taking on. Therefore, if the U.S. military, one of the most well-funded in the world, spends this little time and effort on civilian casualty tracking and prevention, it is likely that countries with problematic track records such as Syria and Russia, will have even fewer resources to dedicate to such a system, making the uptake of a complex data tracking system like CNA’s prototype HNS even more unlikely to occur.

Another issue left unaddressed by Lewis is the fact that smaller and local humanitarian organizations, as was noted in a recent outcome document formulated by the European External Action Service, often, “have limited access to available data due to a lack of resources and/or information sharing. This is strongly linked to the lack of sustainable and quality funding for humanitarian organizations for a budget that comprises equipment, security measures (including acceptance), negotiations, and training (for international and local partners) which would reduce dependency over time.” While large, international NGOs such as Oxfam or Doctors Without Borders may have little problem procuring the systems and personnel necessary to participate in a humanitarian notification system, smaller, local NGOs may not have such funding available. Therefore, any humanitarian notification system must either be exceptionally cheap to access or subsidized in a way that permits all humanitarian organizations working in a given area to have continuous access to the system. 

Yet another issue with the creation of CNA’s prototype humanitarian notification system is that such a process only really addresses actors with a genuine commitment to protecting civilians in the first place. While Lewis advocates everything from naming-and-shaming countries that do not abide by international humanitarian law to seeking proceedings at an international criminal court, it ignores the fact that countries that are willing to accept civilian casualties in their military operations are likely not going to be swayed by being placed on the UN Secretary General’s annual naughty list. Furthermore, frequent violators of international norms such as Russia and Syria are not signatories to the Rome statute, making them difficult to prosecute at the International Criminal Court; and even the United States, another all too frequent offender, is also not a Rome statute signatory

Moreover, while deconfliction and the avoidance of attacks on humanitarian workers is certainly something that should be aspired to, there also needs to be systems in place to investigate what happens when the process fails. As argued by Annie Shiel and John Ramming Chappell in an April piece for the blog Just Security, “reviewing past cases of harm is also critical to any attempts to learn for the future…without a full picture of past civilian harm and the circumstances and causes of that harm, [DoD] cannot understand and learn from its mistakes.” Furthermore, as was argued by Martin Griffiths, UN Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Relief Coordinator in the summer of 2021, “allegations of serious violations of international humanitarian law must be systematically and independently investigated, and perpetrators held to account. War crimes that go unpunished embolden perpetrators to commit further violations.” As mentioned above, while some U.S. combatant commands have civilian casualty (CIVCAS) tracking cells, not all do. Therefore, the creation of units to track civilian harm, at least at each of the U.S.’ six geographic combatant commands, is a step towards the U.S. being able to better investigate incidents of harm to civilians or humanitarian organizations if and when they do occur. 

Closing Thoughts

In totality, the creation of a humanitarian notification system that incorporates incorruptible audit trails, and provides the ability for investigators to gain insight into why incidences of harm to humanitarian organizations and their employees, would be a welcome addition to the PoC arsenal, as it would not only provide accountability for mistakes, but would hopefully prevent such tragedies from occurring in the first place. However, while Lewis and CNA’s proposed new HNS would be valuable, its creation alone will not suddenly render the battlefield completely hospitable to humanitarian organizations. Instead, more must be done in order to protect aid workers working in conflict-affected areas. 

For American decision makers, one complicating factor in the struggle to reduce civilian harm is simply the sheer size of the U.S. military; as Lewis himself noted in a November 2021 piece for Just Security, “DOD is the largest bureaucracy in the world (followed by China’s PLA and WalMart), and has the largest budget by far of any military on the planet,” and that it is therefore, “notable that while the Services, Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), and the Joint Chiefs of Staff have leadership positions for a wide variety of issues, there is no leader in DOD working solely to mitigate civilian harm. While there are leaders who have this issue in their portfolio, they have many competing priorities and almost no resources or authority.” 

In light of that fact, and if the U.S. wishes to do more to prevent inadvertent attacks on humanitarian organizations in conflict-zones, it will need to do more than create a new humanitarian notification system. Instead, DoD needs to incorporate PoC and the protection of humanitarian organizations at the center of operations planning. As experts recently explained to the United Nations Security Council, “today’s unprecedented global need for humanitarian assistance — in concert with escalating violence against those providing it — requires robust action.” Therefore, countries need to ensure that these aid organizations can operate free from fear of targeting by parties to the conflict. 

In 2009, as General Stanley McChrystal assumed command of NATO International Security Assistance Force – Afghanistan, he discovered that the war was going poorly, as, “several high-visibility CIVCAS events, along with dozens of other smaller escalation-of-force incidents over the past few years, damaged ISAF’s credibility as it battled the Taliban for the ‘hearts and minds’ of the Afghan people.” He therefore wrote in his Tactical Directive to troops in theater that:

“Our strategic goal is to defeat the insurgency threatening the stability of Afghanistan. Like any insurgency, there is a struggle for the support and will of the population. Gaining and maintaining that support must be our overriding operational imperative – and the ultimate objective of every action we take. We must fight the insurgents, and will use the tools at our disposal to both defeat the enemy and protect our forces. But we will not win based on the number of Taliban we kill, but instead on our ability to separate insurgents from the center of gravity – the people. That means we must respect and protect the population from coercion and violence – and operate in a manner which will win their support.”

He further concluded that, “we must avoid the trap of winning tactical victories – but suffering strategic defeats – by causing civilian casualties or excessive damage and thus alienating the people,” and that while, “the carefully controlled and disciplined employment of force entails risks to our troops – and we must work to mitigate that risk wherever possible. But excessive use of force resulting in an alienated population will produce far greater risks. We must understand this reality at every level in our force.”

So too must militaries around the world refrain from using force that results in harm being done to aid groups that provide essential services to civilians living in conflict zones. While the protection of civilians residing in conflict zones must obviously be the starting point, decision makers must also ensure that aid workers are similarly protected, as humanitarian aid is essential to ensuring that victims of war survive the conflict. Under the Geneva Convention and customary international humanitarian law, nations have a responsibility to ensure the protection of civilians and aid workers operating in conflict areas.

Therefore, the creation of new humanitarian notification systems for conflict zones is merely the starting point. Countries must also do more to strengthen the protection of humanitarian organizations, from better resourcing civilian and humanitarian worker harm tracking efforts to more thoroughly investigating attacks on humanitarian aid workers after they occur. As Lewis concludes in his paper, “better protection of civilians, and of the humanitarian organizations that act on their behalf, is an attainable goal.” However, to reach that goal, there needs to be a great deal more commitment from military leaders and national decision makers to truly incorporate the protection of humanitarian organizations into the processes that guide tactical decisions on the ground in conflict zones. To paraphrase Secretary Austin, the protection of humanitarian organizations in the conduct of U.S. operations remains vital to the ultimate success of U.S. operations, and as a significant strategic and moral imperative.

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Even a Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day: On the Need for a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding

June 3, 2022

Back on May 19, the United States Senate, by a vote of 86-11, passed a $40 billion emergency aid bill which aims to supply Ukraine with weapons and other assistance in order to help the country resist the Russian invasion. This followed a May 10 vote in the House of Representatives, when the package passed by a comfortable 368-57 margin. Such broad, bipartisan support, which the measure received in Congress, is somewhat surprising given the Biden administration’s difficulty passing some of his domestic spending priorities such as an extension of the child tax credit and his “Build Back Better” agenda.

However, passage of such a large emergency aid package was never certain, especially as efforts to, “crack down on Russian trade, ban its energy imports, impose new restrictions on U.S. companies doing business in Russia, demand war-crimes investigations, transfer MiG jets and other material to Ukraine, and other measures,” failed to reach the President’s desk due to political disputes in Congress. However, while May’s strong, cross-party support for Ukraine aid is promising—as it somewhat addresses concerns that Congress had become too sclerotic and paralyzed to provide effective assistance to Kyiv—it does not mean that politics have been taken out of the equation. 

Specifically, the bill saw opposition from eleven Republican senators, despite a statement from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell saying that he, “encourage[s] every senator on both sides to join this bipartisan supermajority,” because, “the most expensive and painful thing American could possibly do in the long run would be to stop investing in sovereignty, stability and deterrence before it’s too late.” 

Moreover, the bill saw opposition from both the junior Senator from Kentucky, Rand Paul, and the junior Senator from Louisiana, John Kennedy—with Senator Paul arguing that though a majority of Americans want Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion, “if Congress were honest, they would take the money from elsewhere in the budget or ask Americans to pay higher taxes, or heaven forbid, loan the money to Ukraine instead of giving it to Ukraine.” Due to their skepticism about sending large amounts of funding to Ukraine, both Kennedy and Paul have argued that any aid package should include language creating a Special Inspector General for Ukraine overseeing the economic, humanitarian, and security assistance funding that Congress has already approved. More specifically, Senator Paul has proposed that instead of standing up a new Special Inspector General’s position, Congress retask the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) to do the job. 

Kennedy and Paul’s opposition to the Ukraine aid package might simply be seen as a case of Senators wishing to watch the country’s purse-strings more tightly, with Senator Kennedy saying that while, “the Ukrainian people have defended their country’s sovereignty with bravery and grit,” that, “Congress has already supported their fight against Putin’s war of aggression with billions and billions of dollars in aid and military equipment,” and that, “American taxpayers deserve to know that their money is helping Ukraine beat back Russia effectively, and Congress needs to guarantee that oversight.” However, while both Senators do possess histories that speak to concerns about profligate government spending, both Senators have an interesting history with the Ukraine file, which includes Senator Paul’s blocking of a symbolic resolution in support of Ukraine in February of this year and Senator Kennedy’s voicing of conspiracy theories regarding alleged Ukrainian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential contest. 

While objections to the $40 billion aid bill from the Republican Senators were more likely the result of political gamesmanship rather than an honest belief in the need for better oversight of the aid being sent to Ukraine, it does not mean that their calls for a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding (SIGUAF) are completely without merit, as the over $50 billion in aid sent by the U.S. may simply be the tip of the iceberg; especially as costs for Ukraine’s reconstruction could easily reach between €200-€500 billion ($214-$537 billion) according to an April 8 report from the Centre for Economic Policy Research. 

Therefore, it would be useful to examine the text of the Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2022 in order to determine both where the $40 billion in allocated aid is going and whether a dedicated Special Inspector General position should be created to oversee the distribution of these funds. 

What Does $40 Billion Buy These Days?

Before any discussion of the appropriateness of a special oversight position for Ukraine aid, it is perhaps best to first understand what is contained in the text of the appropriations bill; and for that, there is no better place to look than the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Mark Cancian, who broke down the spending package in a May 23 commentary

In his commentary, Cancian not only notes that the $40 billion package ramps up U.S. aid levels to Ukraine from $100 million per day to $135 million, he notes that the new package goes further than prior ones, extending funding to the end of this fiscal year. To more fully understand the specifics of the aid package, Cancian proceeds to break down his analysis of the bill into six major sections: near-term military aid to Ukraine; funding the U.S. military response; military support to allies and partners along with enhancements to U.S. military capabilities; increasing the Biden administration’s drawdown authority—which grants the President the ability to, “authorize the immediate transfer of articles and services from U.S. stocks without Congressional approval in response to an ‘unforeseen emergency’”; funding for humanitarian and global assistance programs; and oversight.

In terms of the $19 billion in near-term military aid, Cancian first breaks out the spending into three major sub-areas, starting with $6 billion for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which was created in the 2016 National Defense Authorization Act to enhance Ukrainian military capabilities through the provision of, “appropriate security assistance and intelligence support, including training, equipment, and logistics support, supplies and services, to military and other security forces of the Government of Ukraine.” As Cancian notes, USAI is a “transfer account”, which means that the Secretary of Defense has the ability to decide later where the money goes without going through normal budgetary procedures. Congress, Cancian further argues, typically dislikes such funding schemes, as transfer accounts often become little more than “slush funds” for the Department of Defense (DOD) to use as it sees fit. While Congress retains the ability to block those transfers upon notification from DOD that they will occur, doing so later may be politically and procedurally difficult, which reduces the overall level of Congressional oversight of the program. 

The $19 billion in near-term military aid also encompasses $9 billion for replenishment of U.S. weapons stocks to replace equipment sent to Ukraine either in the past or in the near-future. While Cancian notes that the $9 billion is nearly three times the stated cost of equipment drawdown provided to Ukraine to date, it implies that, “replacements will be more expensive and that there will be additional drawdown in the future.” 

Finally, near-term military aid also includes $4 billion for the State Department’s Foreign Military Financing Program, which, “authorizes the President to finance procurement of defense articles and services for foreign countries and international organizations,” and, “enables partner nations to purchase U.S. defense articles, services, and training through [the Foreign Military Sales program].” Here, Cancian correctly notes that while small equipment such as rifles are quick to deliver, the procurement of larger weapons platforms carry with it multi-year lead times, indicating that this section of the appropriation is part of a longer-term effort to build up the Ukrainian armed forces. 

In terms of funding the U.S. military response, the bill contains $3.9 billion for, “mission support, intelligence support, hardship pay for troops deployed to the region, and equipment including a Patriot battery,” which is intended to offset the additional costs for the 10,500 troops the U.S. had sent to eastern Europe in advance of the Russian invasion as well as their rotation back home. Cancian notes here that the addition of a Patriot missile battery is interesting, as the U.S. has not lost any equipment; the implication being that the purchase would either be to expand Army force structure in eastern Europe or to replace a system given to an ally in the region. 

In terms of military support to allies and partners in the region, and the enhancement of U.S. military capabilities, Cancian splits out the approximately $2 billion in aid to categories of: aid to friendly foreign nations; increases in “critical” munitions stocks; use of the Defense Production Act; and general research and development. In terms of the $500 million in aid earmarked for friendly foreign nations, Cancian notes that the money is likely meant to reimburse partners for equipment that they have already sent to Ukraine—a win-win for all involved as European allies get to rid themselves of aging Soviet-era equipment while the U.S. defense industry can sell more of its products to replace the equipment transferred to Ukraine. In terms of increasing munitions stocks, Cancian notes that approximately a half billion in funding will go to DOD to increase its stocks and develop new missiles for future conflicts. Relatedly, the section also contains another $600 million in order to, “expedite missile production and expand domestic access to critical minerals via the Defense Production Act.” Finally, Cancian notes that this aid includes $364 million for research and development of new technology including the development of new, “unmanned vehicle modifications, export control systems, and other cyber and intelligence capabilities specific to supporting Ukraine.”

The next subsection in Cancian’s breakdown of the supplemental appropriations bill notes that the act raises the cap on the White House’s drawdown authority to $11 billion, permitting the administration to defense articles to Ukraine or other eastern European allies without the requirement to notify and receive the approval of Congress. Not only will that speed up the provision of defense equipment to partners in the region, but it sends a message to Russia that the provision of U.S. aid will not be too greatly restricted by possible Congressional spending limits. It is important to note, Cancian argues, that it is unclear how this authority operates with the recently passed S. 3522, the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022, though the increase in drawdown authority may make the Lend-Lease Act irrelevant as the president may prefer to simply send defense equipment and material directly to Ukraine rather than maintaining a fiction that Ukraine will eventually pay the U.S. back for its largesse. 

The final major grouping of funds in the $40 billion supplemental appropriation is the $16 billion allocated to humanitarian assistance, general support to the government of Ukraine, and efforts to mitigate the global repercussions of the Russian invasion. This section of the bill includes $350 million for refugee assistance, primarily for eastern European allies to deal with the influx of Ukrainian refugees since the outbreak of the war; $4.3 billion for disaster assistance, including emergency food assistance to populations in Africa that are being unduly affected by disruptions of grain shipments from Ukraine and Russia; $8.8 billion in economic support for, “Ukraine and countries impacted by the situation in Ukraine, including for programs to combat human trafficking.” as well as $760 million to prevent and respond to food insecurity, the majority of which may end up in the pockets of U.S. farmers; $900 million in humanitarian aid to support Ukrainian refugees in the United States; $400 million to investigate allegations of Russian-perpetrated war crimes and to combat human trafficking; $190 million for diplomatic programs to, “respond to the situation in Ukraine and in countries impacted by the situation in Ukraine.”; $400 million to law enforcement to combat international narcotics trafficking; $110 million for embassy security; $100 million for demining operations; $650 million for international organizations including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Global Agricultural and Food Security program; and $52 million to trace and seize the property of Russian oligarchs in order to identify their true owners.

Lastly, the bill contains $4 million for the State Department’s Inspector General (IG), $1 million for the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) inspector general, and a requirement that, “the Inspector General of the Department of Defense shall carry out reviews of the activities of the Department of Defense to execute funds appropriated in this title, including assistance provided to Ukraine,” with a direction that the Inspector General, “shall provide to the congressional defense committees a written report not later than 120 days after the date of enactment of this Act,”—though, importantly, it should be noted that the appropriation does not provide any additional funding to the DOD IG for this task. 

A Failure of Oversight? 

Despite the aforementioned criticisms from Senators Kennedy and Paul, votes against the appropriation by eleven Republican Senators, and strong condemnation of the text of the bill from conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation, the bill does include resources for both State and USAID’s IGs to report on the provision of aid to Ukraine. However, while Republican opposition to the $40 billion in Ukraine aid is likely motivated more by a desire to stymie the Biden administration’s agenda and blame it for the destruction unfolding in Ukraine, it does not mean that just because many of these calls for greater oversight are being made in bad faith, that such calls are entirely without merit. Indeed, while Senator Paul’s request for SIGAR to be re-purposed from investigating Afghanistan’s reconstruction to investigating Ukraine aid may be unnecessary and inefficient—as SIGAR still has yet to finish its work in Afghanistan and is still publishing vital reports on the lessons that need to be learned from the U.S.’ twenty year misadventure in Afghanistan—the idea of a special inspector general for Ukraine aid is worth considering.

Specifically, as Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John F. Sopko has clearly done an excellent job since taking over in 2012, it would be foolish to remove him and his team from a country where they have acquired over a decade of vital experience in order to send it to Ukraine, a country where it has no formal background. Instead, what U.S. decision makers should consider is the creation of a new Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding (SIGUAF), which could incorporate the best practices and lessons learned by SIGAR, while staffing up a team that has experience working in Ukraine and eastern Europe. 

Inspectors General vs. Special Inspectors General

To better understand why a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding would be preferable to carrying out this oversight via the existing State, DOD, and USAID inspectors general, it helps to first have an appreciation of the statutory history of the positions. While the origins of federal inspectors general can be traced back to the late 1950s, it was not until the Inspector General Act of 1978 that the federal government established inspectors general at more than a dozen federal departments in order to: conduct audits and investigations of programs; recommend policies that promote efficiency, economy, effectiveness and prevent fraud, waste, and abuse; and keep the entity head and Congress informed of any progress and problems in program implementation. In total, seventy-four statutory inspectors general operate across the federal government, with most grouped into either “establishment” inspectors general who are appointed by the President with Senate confirmation; and “designated federal entity” inspectors general who are appointed by their agency head. However, there are also seven “other permanent” and three “special” inspectors general throughout the federal government, which are governed by their own, separate, statutes. 

That being said, for the purpose of discussing oversight of Ukraine assistance, it is most important to examine the relative values of an establishment inspector general at the Department of State or Defense—as well as the designated federal entity inspector general at USAID—compared to a special inspector general, which would be created specifically to monitor the provision of U.S. assistance to Ukraine.

In a report prepared by Ben Wilhelm for the Congressional Research Service, updated in May, 2022, the author notes that while the Inspector General Act of 1978 grants broad authority to its inspectors to conduct audits and investigations; access records and information related to the affiliated entity’s programs; request assistance from other federal, state, and local agencies; subpoena documents; administer oaths when conducting interviews; independently hire and manage their own staff and resources; and receive and respond to complaints of fraud, waste, and abuse from individual agency employees, the legislation authorizing special inspectors general typically incorporates the language of the 1978 Act in order to provide special inspectors general with the same broad oversight authority.

However, what separates special inspectors general from establishment and designated federal entity inspectors general is that while establishment and designated federal entity inspectors possess jurisdiction over their Department or agency, they lack cross-agency jurisdiction, which impedes their ability to investigate sprawling efforts such as the reconstruction of Afghanistan or the support of Ukraine’s military. With funding sources for these programs disbursed through the State Department, Defense Department, USAID, and a variety of other agencies and bodies— including the U.S. Agency for Global Media, International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program—it is vital that the office in charge of oversight be able to evaluate government-wide efforts, not just those under the purview of a specific department or agency. 

Furthermore, despite the fact that a majority of the oversight responsibilities for the bill are divided amongst the State Department and USAID—as they are the only inspectors general receiving additional funding to carry out oversight of Ukraine assistance funding—it is the Defense Department that possesses the largest Office of the Inspector General, with over 1,750 auditors, investigators, evaluators, and support personnel overseeing Defense programs. What’s more, despite the State Department seemingly being in charge of at least the $16 billion—for humanitarian assistance, general support to the government of Ukraine, and efforts to mitigate the global repercussions of the Russian invasion—it only receives $4 million in additional funds for oversight, which likely  would not be enough to effectively accomplish such a complex task.

Oversight in the Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2022

In order to see how such token budgetary increases will not be enough for State’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) to get the job done in Ukraine, one merely has to look at the budgetary request figures for State’s OIG in the past few years compared to State’s request for SIGAR oversight funding in the same period. In FY2020 and FY2021, State requested approximately $141 million for the entire OIGs office, with $89 million in 2020 and $91 million in 2021 going directly to States’ OIG. In those same years, however, approximately $53 and $50 million of that $141 million, respectively, were earmarked just for the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction’s office. 

Therefore, if the State Department feels that a Special Inspector General’s office requires approximately $50 million per year to operate, a $4 million increase in the State OIG budget may very well be insufficient to accomplish all of the investigatory and auditing work of a special inspector general’s office. In essence, the State Department OIG—which is responsible for the oversight of, “more than $76 billion per year in Department and [US Agency for Global Media] programs and operations,”—is being asked to take over oversight of at least an additional 21% more funding, while only receiving an approximately 1% budget increase; which is an insult to all of the hard-working individuals currently at the State Department Office of the Inspector General.

Furthermore, as the Project on Government Oversight called attention to in a June 1 letter to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, both the Departments of State and Defense lack permanent inspectors general—State since the firing of former IG Steve Linick by former President Trump in May 2020 and Defense since the resignation of former IG Jon Rymer in November 2015. As such, asking that State and DOD’s OIGs take up such a complex oversight task, while they are still without a permanent person in charge of guiding the entire oversight process, would be asking for oversight efforts to be handled slowly or without clear guidance. Moreover, asking a newly confirmed Inspector General to not only take on the task of familiarizing themselves with their Department, but also to simultaneously take up such a complex oversight task such as the Ukraine assistance package, would merely just set that individual up for failure. 

In addition to these oversight issues, there are institutional issues at play that makes the creation of a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding even more vital. For instance, as was noted in the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction’s August 2021 Lessons Learned report, despite the fact that the State Department was usually tasked with, “leading the interagency reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan,” no SIGAR interviewees, “believe[d] that State had the ability to lead the effort in any meaningful way,” saying that, the Department was not capable of leading, biased against structured planning, lacked a strong planning culture, and was weak at defining the end state and the steps needed to get to that end state. Unfortunately, the way that the $40 billion in Ukraine aid is structured, it would seem that State would once again be taking the lead on a reconstruction project once the war is finished; a task to which it has proven unsuited in Afghanistan. Therefore, if Congress is adamant about the State Department overseeing the distribution of over $16 billion in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, it would be well advised to appoint a Special Inspector General to oversee the process and avoid these pitfalls before they arise in the first place. 

Moreover, there is the fact that this may very well not be the last appropriation for Ukraine aid that the U.S. approves. While the current appropriation does run through the end of this fiscal year, it is rather unlikely that the war in Ukraine will be over by September. Therefore, in all likelihood, the $16 billion that the State Department is being asked to oversee will only increase over time.

Ultimately, with a mere glance at the State Department’s Office of the Inspector General’s FY 2022-2023 Work Plan, one can see that the Department already has a large number of oversight projects on its hands already. Adding a monumental task, such as the oversight of a minimum of $16 billion in aid to Ukraine, might risk reducing the quality of these planned reports, as it would force the office to adopt tighter project timelines and budgets, and would stretch OIG personnel rather thin. 

Source: https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2955960/us-provided-more-than-1-billion-in-security-assistance-to-ukraine-in-past-year/Pallets of ammunition, weapons and other equipment bound for Ukraine are processed through the 436th Aerial Port Squadron at Dover Air Force Base, Del., Feb. 10, 2022.
Pallets of ammunition, weapons and other equipment bound for Ukraine are processed through the 436th Aerial Port Squadron during a foreign military sales mission at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware, Feb. 10, 2022. Since 2014, the United States has committed more than $5.4 billion in total assistance to Ukraine, including security and non-security assistance. The United States reaffirms its steadfast commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in support of a secure and prosperous Ukraine. (U.S. Air Force photo by Mauricio Campino)

Ukraine: A Partisan Political Football

Over the past six years, Ukraine has emerged as a contentious, partisan issue for many politicians and voters, with the events of former President Trump’s first impeachment related to his administration holding hostage hundreds of millions of dollars in security aid in order to pressure the government of Ukraine to investigate his political rivals. Furthermore, as was noted in a May 24 Brookings Institution piece, “if there was hope that the Ukraine war would reduce the sharp partisan divide in American politics, the evidence from our recent poll is discouraging,” with polling finding that more Republicans dislike President Biden than do Russian President Putin. 

As such, aid to Ukraine is likely to remain a politically divisive subject, especially as the 2022 mid-term elections approach and candidates for the 2024 U.S. presidential election begin to shake themselves out. Moreover, with the strong likelihood that former President Trump decides to run for reelection, it would be wise to further remove the oversight of Ukraine aid from possible political interference; and the best way to do so would be the statutory creation of a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding by Congress, with robust reporting requirements, and broad powers to conduct its inquiries free of future political interference. Not only would a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding attempt to take some of the politics out of the issue, it would allow the existing OIG’s at State, DOD, and USAID to continue to do the vital work that they already do without adding a massive, possibly years-long project on top of their day-to-day responsibilities. 

What’s more, the creation of a statutory SIGUAF by Congress would need to—as was advocated by Project on Government Oversight staff in their letter to the Senate Majority and Minority leaders—address deficiencies that were seen in the creation of the Special Inspector General for Pandemic Recovery, which failed to include emergency hiring authorities and subsequently impeded that offices’ ability to fulfill its reporting requirements. State and DOD will rightly be working as rapidly as possible to get the appropriated funds into the hands of Ukrainian soldiers, the Ukrainian government, and ordinary Ukrainian citizens; therefore, oversight needs to be stepped up on a similarly rapid basis in order to provide insight into such a large-scale U.S. aid program.

Final Thoughts

Overall, the U.S. response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been as strong and bipartisan as many could have hoped for. However, it would be eminently foolish to believe that future years will not bring numerous hearings into the amount of money that is currently being poured into Ukraine, as our partisan political environment seemingly guarantees that a spending program of this size will generate inter-party rancor. Furthermore, as was noted by think tanks and watchdog organizations Taxpayers for Common Sense, the National Taxpayers Union, the Project on Government Oversight, and the R Street Institute, in a letter the groups sent to Congress in May, “the Gross Domestic Product of Ukraine in 2020 was $155.6 billion in U.S. dollars. Moving tens of billions of dollars into an economy that isn’t used to absorbing that much money will require care, and the best economic and transparency practices possible in a dire situation.” In that same vein, prior to the Russian invasion, Ukraine was already struggling to deal with corruption issues, and the influx of billions in U.S. aid will severely test Ukraine’s attempted economic reforms, especially its efforts to combat high-level corruption—which still remains widespread throughout Ukraine. 

Coupled with Ukraine’s likely difficulties in absorbing this huge inflow of funds without some kind of graft, there is the fact that existing oversight mechanisms—the OIGs at State, DOD, and USAID—while full of smart, dedicated individuals, are already stretched thin. Currently, State’s OIG is tasked with overseeing $76 billion with around 300 employees while DOD’s OIG is required to oversee $754 billion in spending with just 1,750 auditors, investigators, evaluators, and support personnel

Further complicating matters, the text of the act requires the Department of Defense Inspector General to provide a report describing U.S. security assistance to Ukraine since the February invasion, including, “a comprehensive list of the defense articles and services provided to Ukraine and the associated authority and funding used to provide such articles and services.” In addition, it requires the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Secretary of State, to report on efforts to account for and end-use monitoring of any defense articles designated for Ukraine since the outbreak of the war on February 24. Adding these tasks to the offices’ normal oversight functions is simply asking for the job to be done in a slipshod manner. 

Therefore, a one-time injection of $5 million in total funds for Ukraine assistance oversight simply will not get the job done. If Congress wishes to have real transparency into how its $40 billion or more in Ukraine aid is ultimately spent, it will need to either consider massively increasing the amount of funds that State, DOD, and USAID’s OIGs receive—along with concomitant authority to rapidly on-board new employees—or consider the creation of a special inspector general’s position in order to get the information it really needs. 

As Elaine McCusker of the American Enterprise Institute wrote back on May 18, the supplemental appropriations bill passed by Congress, “provides funds for humanitarian aid, refugee assistance and resettlement; medical support; food and energy security; investigation, seizure, and forfeiture of assets related to Russian aggression; and economic and foreign aid—all activities that are part of US assistance and response to Ukraine requirements. As with the funds provided to defense, these resources come with reporting requirements and restrictions.” While all of these funding areas are likely necessary, they are strikingly diverse and will require diligent stewardship if taxpayer dollars are to be safeguarded from waste. 

Ultimately, while Senators Paul and Kennedy’s requests for the creation of a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding are likely a partisan political ploy rather than serious proposals, it does not mean that such proposals are entirely without merit—even a broken clock is, after all, right twice a day. However, instead of being a political “gotcha” for the Biden administration, the creation of a SIGUAF would attempt to take the politics out of the equation by creating an independent oversight office, named by the President, but with a responsibility to report its findings back to Congress. As such, Congress would be well advised to use the language in SIGAR’s enabling legislation to create a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding to: provide for the, independent and objective, conduct and supervision of audits and investigations relating to the programs and operations funded with amounts appropriated, or otherwise made available for the assistance for the situation in Ukraine; provide for the independent and objective leadership and coordination of, and recommendations on, policies designed to promote economy, efficiency, and effectiveness in the administrations of the programs and operations described and prevent and detect waste, fraud and abuse in such programs and operations; and to provide for an independent and objective means of keeping the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, and the appropriate congressional committees fully and currently informed about problems and deficiencies relating to the administration of such programs and operations and the necessity for and progress on corrective actions.

Allowing tens of billions in additional funding to Ukraine to be overseen just by the existing inspectors general at State, Defense, and USAID is simply asking for those offices to become overworked and unable to accomplish their pre-existing caseload. Therefore, unless Congress and the White House take action now to create a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding, the U.S. risks wasting taxpayer money at a time when inflation is still high and leading financial figures warn of a looming economic “hurricane”, primarily due to the war in Ukraine.

As the U.S. has learned in Afghanistan, even with the creation of a dedicated Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, U.S. taxpayer money was too often wasted on projects that, “lacked clear program goals, performance measures, and equality data to support management decisions, as well as assets that were not used, abandoned, or posed safety hazards.” Without a special inspector general in Afghanistan, it is likely that these billions in waste would never have even been highlighted, and these mistakes would have been carried over into reconstruction efforts in countries such as Ukraine. It has been argued that it is inevitable that any large government spending program will be accompanied by some degree of fraud, waste, and abuse; more so when the program is intended to increase spending rapidly. Therefore, the creation of a Special Inspector General for Ukraine Assistance Funding is of paramount importance if fraud, waste, and abuse is to be found in Ukraine assistance programs which utilize the recently approved billions in U.S. taxpayer money.

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An Orphaned Failure: The Demise of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces

May 27, 2022

On May 12, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) released an interim report to the House Armed Services Committee and House Committee on Oversight and Reform regarding the collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) before, during, and after the U.S. pullout, which was completed in August 2021. The report concludes that while the failure to construct a self-sufficient security force in Afghanistan had many fathers, the proximate cause of the collapse in the summer of 2021 can be traced back to the decision—first initiated under the Trump administration, and then completed by the Biden administration—to withdraw all remaining U.S. troops and contractors. However, while the SIGAR report does present a useful analysis of some of the contemporaneous factors leading to the collapse of Afghan security forces—and it is inarguable that the decision to fully withdraw U.S. forces and contractors was likely the last straw for much of the Afghan military—the report’s conclusion seems to be at least somewhat flawed, as it tends to downplay some of the other major factors that led to the Afghan security forces’ collapse. 

As has been expertly argued by others elsewhere (and echoed by myself in these same pages), the Western—but mostly American—failure to create effective, self-sufficient security forces in Afghanistan has been a slow-motion disaster that took over two decades; it was not something that sprung up overnight once the Trump administration made its decision to make a deal with the Taliban. One merely has to review some of the quarterly reports issued by SIGAR since its creation in 2008 to see that the creation of effective Afghan National Defense and Security Forces would be a generational project, and not something that could be completed in the span of a single presidential administration. 

However, while the ultimate conclusion of SIGAR’s interim report on the collapse of the ANDSF is somewhat flawed, its overall analysis of the situation leading up to the disintegration of Afghan security forces is well constructed and most certainly worth a review. To that end, it is worth diving into the report to examine both what it gets right as well as where it goes astray. 

A Long, Slow Road to Nowhere

The SIGAR report—which opens with a brief rundown of the decisions taken by the U.S. since 2002 in its attempts to create professional security forces for Afghanistan—notes that decision makers ran into problems almost immediately. These problems were made especially acute after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, which caused the Bush administration to divert badly needed troops, advisors, and reconstruction funds from Kabul to Baghdad as the security situation there deteriorated rapidly following the U.S. takeover. By 2006, when the Combined Security Transition Command – Afghanistan (CSTC-A) was created as a joint project between the U.S., the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and NATO to train, advise, assist, and equip the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Afghan National Police (ANP), it was intended to reform and recreate both security forces so as to develop a stable country and defeat the remaining terror threats emanating from within Afghanistan. 

However, despite CSTC-A’s creation in 2006, the following year saw more than 5,200 Afghans die to insurgent-related violence, including over 750 civilians. Due to this increase in violent activity, the U.S. made the decision to rapidly expand the ANDSF on a shortened training and development schedule, increasing training capacity at the Kabul Military Training Center from the equivalent of two U.S. Army battalions to five. In addition, basic training was reduced to 10 weeks in 2017, down from 14 weeks in 2005. 

This reduction in training standards accompanied similar lax standards for the training of the Afghan National Police, where of the 34,000 “trained” officers the U.S. military reported it possessed, only counted 3,900 members who had been through the basic 8-week training (standard U.S. police training requires 21 weeks). As noted by the United States Institute of Peace’s Robert M. Perito in a 2009 report, while responsibility for training of the ANP was initially placed with Germany due to prior experience working with police in the country, their approach—which would see officer cadets enrolled in a five-year training program—would take, “decades to train a police force of [70,000].” However, the U.S. went the opposite way, offering three different curricula based on what was used at the Police Service School in Kosovo which offered just an, “eight-week course in basic police skills for literate, noncommissioned officers and patrolmen, a five-week course for illiterate patrolmen, and a fifteen-day Transition Integration Program for policemen with extensive experience.” Furthermore, the ANP, despite being envisioned as a militarized local defense force by U.S. decision makers, had many units with low combat readiness, with some units possessing less than 15% of their required weapons and communications systems. 

Notwithstanding the poor overall states of the ANA and ANP, the U.S. pushed to rapidly expand the ranks of both bodies, with senior U.S. officials threatening to withhold reconstruction funding if the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan did not (GIRoA) expand the ANP from 60,000-82,000 officers and the ANA from 75,000-134,000, including the reconstitution of a new Afghan Air Force. As part of this massive expansion, the U.S. began transitioning the ANA from a light-infantry army to a combined arms one, and training special forces units that would be used to good effect before ultimately being overworked and overwhelmed. 

However, despite this huge increase in the size of the ANDSF—and an agreement with the Obama administration to increase ANDSF end strength to 352,000—as U.S. troops began to depart in 2011-2012, the ANDSF began to struggle, with International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) commander Gen. Joseph Dunford arguing before the Senate Armed Services Committee in 2014 that once coalition forces withdrew, the ANDSF, “will begin to deteriorate. The security environment will begin to deteriorate, and I think the only debate is the pace of that deterioration.” 

Furthermore, even after the U.S. completed the drawdown of U.S. troops and the transition to the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission, it still had to confront the fact that despite ANDSF end strength of over 350,000, “the accelerated development of the ANA and ANP and rush to expand the number of units and men during the surge period overshadowed the need for their professional growth and solid institutional capacity building,” as was argued in a 2016 report by the United States Institute of Peace’s Ali A. Jalali. Furthermore, according to Jalali, “no serious measures were taken to strengthen the ANDSF’s professional capacity and eliminate their habitual dependency on international forces,” and that, ultimately, “the race to add battalions and police units as part of the exit strategy left the ANDSF with limited maneuverability, fire power, aviation support, intelligence capacity, logistic capacity, and command and control aptitude.” 

As the SIGAR interim report on the collapse of the ANDSF notes, as the Obama administration focused primarily on improving the security situation on the ground, it created a permission structure for U.S. trainers and advisers to take on greater roles in operations than was healthy for the development of self-sufficient Afghan security units. By providing close air support, emergency medical evacuations, logistics, and leadership, U.S. trainers were merely papering over the many deficiencies in Afghan forces. Therefore, once those trainers and advisers departed with the rest of the Obama administration’s surge of troops, it is rather unsurprising that the ANDSF largely struggled, losing control over the provincial capital of Kunduz and Musa Qala District in Helmand province in the first nine months of 2015. Furthermore, during that period—as the ANA took over responsibility for almost all combat operations for the first time—the Afghan Army’s casualty rate rose to 26%, with about 15,800 soldiers wounded or killed in 2015 fighting, or almost 1 out of every 10 Afghan soldiers. 

Though the Obama administration responded to these setbacks by deploying U.S. Special Forces and Marines to reestablish security, and the Trump administration increased U.S. involvement in Afghan military operations against the Taliban and the Islamic State even more, the February 29, 2020 agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar saw a complete reversal of those trends, as U.S. combat support to the ANDSF ceased almost overnight. 

As the U.S. cut down the number of airstrikes it conducted in Afghanistan, the Taliban began an offensive in 2020 which saw it gain control over approximately 85% of the country, including key border crossings with Iran and Turkmenistan. These takeovers, combined with a threat by the Taliban to restart attacks on U.S. forces if they did not withdraw by the date agreed to by the Trump administration led the Biden administration to announce on April 14, 2021 that U.S. forces would depart the country by September 11th of that year. 

Despite this announcement, the SIGAR report tracks how the Taliban began to overrun Afghan National Army bases in May of 2021; how two dozen Afghan special forces commandos and their popular leader were killed while awaiting reinforcements at a base in northern Faryab province in June; and how  the Taliban launched attacks on major airports in Kandahar and Herat Provinces in July, all while U.S. forces continued to leave the country. Finally, by August 15, the Taliban had reached the capital itself, forcing President Ghani to flee to Uzbekistan and precipitating the fall of the GIRoA and ushering in the rise of Taliban control. 

Factors Contributing to ANDSF Collapse

For Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John F. Sopko and his team, there are six major factors that contributed to the ANDSF collapse, with the proximate one being the U.S.-Taliban agreement and the subsequent withdrawal announcement by the Biden administration. Not only did Afghan security forces view the presence of U.S. troops as the ultimate guarantee that ANDSF losses would not be allowed to spiral out of control, but the presence of U.S. troops demonstrated American political investment in the country’s future; the withdrawal of which had a profound psychological impact on the average soldier, who, according to the SIGAR report, immediately began to shift into survival mode, as they realized that while some in Kabul might come out on top with this deal, they would not be among them. Coupled with the Trump administration’s decision to release 5,000 Taliban militants in exchange for 1,000 Taliban-held Afghan government prisoners, it left many Afghans with the impression that the U.S. was abandoning the country to the Taliban wholesale, which further damaged the morale of security forces. 

However, the United States-Taliban deal contained other elements that not only damaged the ANDSF, but that stymied the ability of the Afghan government to plan for a day when the U.S. was no longer present. As in the interim SIGAR report, despite the U.S.-Taliban withdrawal agreement containing provisions for conditions-based troop withdrawals, the Trump administration repeatedly ignored Taliban violations of its commitments as it pressed on with reductions in troop counts in Afghanistan despite U.S. diplomats’ assertions that a U.S. departure would depend on the Taliban’s commitment to upholding its side of the withdrawal agreement. 

On top of this came mixed messages from members of Congress—who argued publicly against the Trump administration’s withdrawals—and even Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who, in a meeting with Ghani in Kabul in the summer of 2020, assured the Afghan President that the pullout did not mean that the U.S. was giving up on his country,  that, “We have signed up for a conditional drawdown,” and that one of those conditions was that the Taliban and GIRoA engage in real negotiations. As was argued by Kate Clark and Obaid Ali in a July 2021 report for the Afghanistan Analysts Network, “while the Taleban [sic] were planning for the US withdrawal, the government has failed to take on board what a post-US war would look like or apparently prepare for it. Indeed, the Afghan elites have behaved as if they did not believe the US would ever actually leave. They have singularly failed to come together in the face of the Taleban [sic] threat.” 

Essentially, the U.S.-Taliban deal sent a message that Afghans were on their own. Previously, the presence of U.S. troops conveyed to Afghan elites the idea that cutting a deal with the Taliban would be a long-term mistake, as U.S. troops promised an eventual GIRoA victory. However, once the withdrawal was announced, and U.S. combat and air support began to be drawn down, many ANDSF commanders began to see the writing on the wall and proceeded to negotiate their units’ surrender to the Taliban in exchange for offers of cash and amnesty. Ultimately, the blow dealt to ANDSF units’ morale by the U.S.-Taliban deal was incalculable, and by failing to account for that, the U.S. massively overestimated the time it would take for Afghan security forces to wither.

Relatedly, the second major cause for the ANDSF collapse offered by the SIGAR report is that the U.S., upon signing the withdrawal agreement with the Taliban, massively scaled back its air support to Afghan security forces, with the total number of coalition airstrikes declining from over 7,000 in 2019 to just 1,631 in 2020, with over half of those occurring in the two months prior to the signing of the U.S.-Taliban agreement. Coupled with this were orders from Kabul for ANDSF units to switch from an offensive posture to one of “active defense” in February of 2020, which saw the consolidation of hundreds of checkpoints throughout the country into a smaller number of patrol bases and a resultant increase in Taliban-initiated attacks as the insurgents had greater freedom to operate. 

https://www.afcent.af.mil/Portals/82/November%202021%20Airpower%20Summary_FINAL.pdf
https://www.afcent.af.mil/Portals/82/November%202021%20Airpower%20Summary_FINAL.pdf

Compounding this issue was the confusion between the U.S., Taliban, and Afghan security forces regarding changes in U.S. rules of engagement. While there are still classified annexes to the U.S.-Taliban deal, the SIGAR report notes that some analysts believe that one of those annexes detail U.S. and Taliban agreements that the U.S. would restrict attacks on Taliban leaders or massed fighters not directly engaging with ANDSF units. This resulted in situations where Taliban forces would simply wait for U.S. overflight planes to depart an area before resuming the destruction of ANDSF units. 

According to the SIGAR report, a third major factor behind the collapse of the ANDSF was the fact that the Afghan security forces never achieved their self-sufficiency milestones and, as such, remained over-reliant on U.S. combat support. As covered in these pages last year, the ANDSF was manifestly unable to manage its resources, including human resources; was unable to provide maintenance for much of their advanced, U.S.-supplied equipment including armored vehicles and A-29 Super Tucano aircraft, relying too often on U.S. contracted logistics support; and too often relied on U.S. leadership during operations not only due to a lack of qualified, competent Afghan military leaders at the tactical level, but also due to U.S. adviser fears that Afghan units could not be trusted not to accidentally kill coalition personnel.

What’s more, as the Taliban gained ground following the announced U.S. withdrawal, insurgents were able to cut off ground lines of supply, forcing a greater share of the ANDSF’s logistics resupply to be conducted via air, further increasing the strain on the already overworked Afghan Air Force (AAF). Despite the fact that the withdrawal of U.S. contractors saw 60% of the AAF’s U.S.-provided Blackhawk helicopters grounded, the AAF was called on to do more than ever, flying bombing raids, medical evacuations, and troop transports all over the country, as the, “force lost one out of five usable aircraft between the end of June and the end of July alone.” Similarly, the Afghan National Army’s special forces Commandos were also overtaxed during this period, as they were repeatedly called on to support checkpoints that were on the verge of being overrun. Furthermore, the SIGAR report notes, once separated from the joint planning and oversight of U.S. advisors, these special operators came under the control of ANA Corps commanders, which tended to use those commandos as little more than special light infantry units.

The fourth major underlying factor behind the demise of the ANDSF was the frequent changes at the top, and the appointment of Ghani loyalists over trained military officers. The SIGAR report notes how in 2021 alone, Ghani replaced more than half of the country’s district police chiefs and nearly all ANA Corps commanders, along with the chief of the army, and the ministers of defense and interior. What’s more, Ghani’s choices of loyalists over competent, U.S.-trained commanders further undermined security forces ability to competently do their jobs. 

The penultimate factor behind the collapse of the ANDSF was a failure of the Ghani government to develop a workable national security plan. Cosseted in the cocoon of U.S. security sector support, Ghani’s team of himself, National Security Advisor Hamidullah Mohib, and head of the administrative office of the president, Fazal Fazli—all of whom lacked military experience—repeatedly pushed off plans on how to manage the country once the last U.S. combat troops finally departed. As such, Ghani repeatedly failed to follow U.S. advice to consolidate the country’s thousands of hard-to-defend checkpoints in favor of regional patrol bases, which kept the ANDSF massively overextended during the critical initial drawdown of U.S. troops. 

Furthermore, the Ghani administration insisted, in June 2021, as the country was in the middle of falling to the Taliban, that it needed six more months of U.S. aid in order to stabilize the situation. Further elucidating Afghan leadership’s disconnect with reality, on the day before Kabul fell, former Army Chief Haibatullah Alizai presented a plan with top U.S. officers in Afghanistan to revive the ANA’s fallen Corps commands over the next four and a half months. Coupled together, it demonstrated the government’s shocking inability to see the writing on the wall and the fact that the government did not have four days, let alone four months to reconstitute its military forces. 

Finally, according to the SIGAR report, the last major factor behind the ANDSF’s rapid collapse was the fact that the Taliban was able to effectively exploit ANDSF weaknesses, especially once the U.S. scaled back its combat air support following the signing of the withdrawal agreement and the Taliban stepped up its attacks despite the strictures of the accord. With the AAF unable to step up its combat support due to a lack of qualified pilots and repaired airframes, the Taliban was able to not only seize checkpoints and border crossings, but the group began to exert pressure on encircled ANDSF units, calling or texting unit commanders at all hours of the day, offering amnesty or money in exchange for the units’ surrender, as the Taliban sought to exploit the ANA units’ increasing isolation. What’s more, as was stated by Thomas Ruttig and Sayed Asadullah Sadat in an August 2021 piece for the Afghanistan Analysts Network, the Taliban, “offered money to some tribal elders to convince the district authorities to join them. They were approaching the mothers of soldiers saying that they would kill their sons, so they were reaching out to their sons saying that the Taleban [sic] are going to attack you and they will kill you, so please come back home.”

Long-Term Causes of Failure

The SIGAR report then proceeds to list nine ways in which the international community failed to construct an effective and self-sufficient Afghan security sector since the 2001 invasion. The report argues that the first mistake made in the process was a failure to have a single country or agency take control over the development of the ANDSF, which led to uncoordinated action and a chaotic overall approach. Instead of pursuing the standard process of conducting security sector assistance through the U.S. embassy and the ambassador on the ground, the effort in Afghanistan was done under the aegis of the NATO alliance. While this strategy had the benefit of distributing responsibility, it complicated the oversight and coordination of the project, which saw police reform initially become the responsibility of Germany, counternarcotics the responsibility of the UK, and judicial reform the responsibility of Italy

This diffusion of responsibilities—which often led to conflicting visions on the roles and responsibilities of soldiers and officers of the ANDSF—resulted in differing conceptions of what the eventual Afghan security forces should look like, with France assuming responsibility for training Afghan officers and establishing a Command and General Staff College; the US focusing on basic training for enlisted soldiers and the construction of a National Military Academy; and the UK establishing an NCO training program and officer candidate school. Furthermore, CSTC-A and NATO Training Mission Afghanistan (NTM-A) rotated through officers far too frequently, resulting in a lack of continuity of effort, which hindered overall efforts to construct a competent security force.

The second underlying factor contributing to the underdevelopment of Afghan security forces is the fact that the length of the U.S. commitment did not live up to the fact that building effective security forces in a country such as Afghanistan would be a generational project. As was noted in SIGAR’s 2021 Lessons Learned report, “the U.S. government consistently underestimated the amount of time required to rebuild Afghanistan, and created unrealistic timelines and expectations that prioritized spending quickly. These choices increased corruption and reduced the effectiveness of programs.” 

Source: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/were-afghan-defence-forces-ever-prepared-protect-afghanistan/
Source: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/were-afghan-defence-forces-ever-prepared-protect-afghanistan/

No single move signified this short-termism more than the 2009-2012 Obama-administration surge in troop levels, which gave U.S. and Afghan forces an eighteen month window to build security sector capacity and expand governance delivery. However, such a short time frame was insufficient to the scale of the task. Ultimately, asking international trainers to transform Afghanistan’s security sector—where basic literacy was equated with professionalism—into a modern, self-sufficient force in a scant few years is simply asking for failure. In the end, this short-sighted vision saw the international community always on the lookout for the exits when—if they wanted to see a transformation in the Afghan security sector—they needed to be ready for the long haul. 

Third, the SIGAR report notes that international trainers and advisors were often ill-prepared for their missions, and that this was compounded by frequent personnel rotations which impeded the creation of any kind of institutional memory. In an October 2019 piece for the National Defense University’s PRISM,  SIGAR chief John. F. Sopko said that, “I quickly found upon assuming my post that individual agencies were constrained from deriving any long-term lessons in Afghanistan and adjusting their operations accordingly often because their personnel in Afghanistan rotate out of country after a year or less in what we at SIGAR have come to call the ‘annual lobotomy’—essentially the routine loss of institutional memory among U.S. agencies working in Afghanistan.” 

Not only that, but, as had been argued in prior SIGAR reports, trainers often lacked expertise in the specific areas they were advising on. For instance, a June 2019 lessons learned report from SIGAR noted that, “ SIGAR found this to be the case in 2017, when the agency determined that CSTC-A personnel responsible for assisting the MOD with identifying new camouflage patterns for uniforms in 2010 did so via internet research rather than consultations with experts. As a result, CSTC-A procured approximately $94 million worth of uniforms that may be inappropriate for Afghanistan’s operational environment.”

Source: https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2021/transfers-major-arms-afghanistan-between-2001-and-2020
Source: https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2021/transfers-major-arms-afghanistan-between-2001-and-2020

Another long-term factor behind the poor state of the ANDSF at the time of the U.S. withdrawal was the learned dependency of Afghan security forces on advanced U.S. equipment. As noted in a September 2021 commentary by Alexandra Kuimova and Siemon T. Wezeman of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), between 2001-2020, the U.S. was the supplier for just under ¾ of Afghanistan’s major arms, with deliveries including, “an estimated 21 924 armored vehicles (e.g. HMMWV-UA, ASV-150/M-1117), 66 MD-530F armed light helicopters, 34 Cessna-208B armed light transport aircraft, and 53 UH-60A transport helicopters. The USA also delivered 65 ScanEagle (unarmed) unmanned aerial vehicles and an estimated 250 Paveway guided bombs,” with most of the arms supplied as aid. The delivery of these items—including over 150 advanced airframes—left the ANDSF units with huge amounts of advanced equipment that they were unable to maintain

The fifth underlying factor is the U.S. struggle to pursue its dual-track strategy of improving local security while simultaneously developing a struggling Afghan security sector. This disconnect created incentives for trainers to do the heavy lifting for the units they were advising, often providing enablers such as combat air support, medical evacuation, and logistics, which left Afghan units cripplingly dependent on enablers that would be withdrawn as soon as the last U.S. boots left the ground.

The sixth factor underlying the international failure to create an effective ANDSF is that U.S. metrics meant to measure progress in creating an effective Afghan security sector often focused far too much on simplistic measures such as whether individuals were paid—they often were not—and how many buildings were built rather than addressing the rampant corruption that rotted the sector out from the inside. As was noted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Jodi Vittori in a September 2021 commentary, “even though corruption in the Afghan security forces was widely recognized as a severe threat to the NATO mission by the late 2000s, the United States did not substantially ramp up its emphasis on building security institutions based on accountability and good governance until around 2015,” and that, “over time, the ever-increasing corruption and predation by the Afghan government ground down the ability of many dedicated security professionals to build a sustainable security sector.”

This ultimately led to another factor underlying the failure to create a self-sufficient security sector is that corruption harmed ANDSF capabilities and morale. As noted in the same Carnegie Endowment piece

“Reliable-enough logistics and supplies for troops could not get off the ground because contracts were riddled with kickbacks (if they were fulfilled at all) and because some of the weapons, ammunition, food, and other necessities were diverted for personal gain. A corrupt personnel system meant promotions and key jobs went to politically connected Afghans or those who paid bribes rather than those most willing and able to fight. Troops faced battle knowing they may not be fed or paid because money and resources were being siphoned off. If they were wounded, they had to bribe medical staff for care and then pay for their food and medical supplies out of their own pockets. If they were killed, their widows would probably not receive their pensions without bribes or connections, leaving their families destitute. All of these problems degraded the ability of the Afghan government to hire, supply, and retain a competent force willing and able to fight.”

What’s more, SIGAR’s interim report argues that the U.S. and Afghan governments were unable to provide justice and to respond to criminal activities plaguing ordinary Afghans, even as the U.S. poured hundreds of millions of dollars a year into ANP salaries, often with little to show for it. Furthermore, the choice by the U.S. to make the Afghan National Police more of a militarized force rather than a community policing organization carried with it a number of pitfalls. As argued in a 2011 report by Cornelius Friesendorf and Jörg Krempel for the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, while military elements are needed to support the ANP, “it would be difficult to argue that the militarization of the police has made Afghanistan more secure,” that, “it should be civilian police experts and not soldiers who dominate the strategic approach of police reform,” and that, “military training must, however, be accompanied by training in community-oriented police work.”

Finally, the last underlying factor behind the underdevelopment of the Afghan security sector that is offered by the SIGAR report is that Afghan officials often lacked ownership of the official military strategy as well as access to key tracking and accountability systems. A prime example of this was the development of the Afghan Personnel and Pay System (APPS)—a system designed to generate payroll calculations and process salary payments—which was never owned by the Afghan government, and was instead headed by CSTC-A. As such, not only was the system largely unusable by the Afghan government, as it did not connect to other important Afghan government computer systems or get rid of the manual data-entry processes it was supposed to eliminate. 

A Longer-Term Failure

While the SIGAR report does go a long way towards explaining the failures of the ANDSF as well as the failures by the international community to construct the Afghan security sector, the idea that the single most important factor behind the collapse of the ANDSF was the well-publicized U.S. decision to withdraw—first begun with the Trump administration’s signing of the U.S.-Taliban agreement in February of 2020—fails to capture the whole picture. Furthermore, while it somewhat steals the thunder from this paper, I cannot recommend enough the recent piece from CNA Corporation’s Johnathan Schroden for War on the Rocks, “Who Is to Blame for the Collapse of Afghanistan’s Security Forces?”, as it compellingly argues that the withdrawal announcement is not the whole story behind the ANDSF’s collapse. 

While SIGAR’s interim report does an excellent job outlining some of the many factors that undergird the failure to create an effective ANDSF, its framing of the decision to withdraw as the major catalyst for the sectors failings not only misreads history, but SIGAR’s own past reports. It is inarguable that the Doha deal was certainly full of flaws, as the deal rewarded the Taliban with talks despite the group continuing to escalate levels of violence over the course of 2020; boosted Taliban morale; gave them legitimacy on the international stage; and forced the ANDSF and U.S. forces on the back foot, all while the Taliban refused to follow the deal’s strictures. However, it is rather difficult to assert that the deal was the primary catalyst of the ANDSF’s collapse; especially as it can be credibly argued that the Afghan security forces were already failing long before the U.S.-announced withdrawal. 

As asserted in a July 2020 e-book by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Anthony Cordesman, with the assistance of Grace Hwang, “the peace process and any successful peace much cope with the fact the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) have become more effective over time but [are] still far too weak to stand up on their own. The Afghan National Army (ANA) is the core of the force, but is still top heavy with mediocre senior officers; has serious corruption problems and ties to factions and power brokers; and has been dependent on U.S. and allied air power, elite forces, and train and assist units to keep the Taliban from seizing heavily populated areas.” 

Furthermore, in Cordesman’s e-book, he points to the Department of Defense’s June 2020 report, “Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan,” which argues that despite progress, the ANDSF was still far too reliant on U.S.-provided logistics support; payroll; vehicle maintenance; food provision to ANDSF forces; and facilities maintenance, amongst other issues. Moreover, Cordesman notes that most ANDSF units possessed, “limited effectiveness in fighting the Taliban or defending against its operations.”

Cordesman further notes that while, “the Afghan National Army (ANA) has some effective elite units…these are overcommitted and over trained, and many elements remain mediocre at best. It is not strong enough or well led and trained enough to face the Taliban without U.S. and allied aid, and it cannot possibly acquire such capabilities within the time period set for reaching a peace,” and that while, “the Afghan Air Force (AAF) is making progress…[it] still has problems in operating its existing systems, and lack anything like the mix of air strike and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (IS&R) assets of U.S. air combat forces.” Finally, he notes that, “the Afghan National Police (ANP) is notably more corrupt than the Army, lacks the support of an effective judicial system and rule of law, and most of its units are not properly trained and equipped for the kind of paramilitary operations necessary to defend and ‘hold’ against the Taliban.” 

As Cordesman notes in another piece from August 2021, “The Reasons for the Collapse of Afghan Forces,” the disintegration of the ANDSF, “is the collapse of a house of cards that took some twenty years to build and that was driven as much by failures at the civil level as the military level.” While Cordesman does acknowledge that announcing the withdrawal, without tying such a withdrawal to any form of peace plan, certainly had a major impact on the situation—as it conveyed a message to partners in Afghanistan that the U.S. thought the situation was lost—it is not the only factor behind the security sector’s relative collapse. Instead, he argues that one must instead look at the history of poor leadership at the top of the Afghan government; failures to coordinate the civil and military aid efforts amongst the U.S., other international donors, and multilateral bodies such as the UN; failures to confront Afghanistan’s dependency on narcotrafficking; failures to acknowledge the existence of problems in the equipping, training and leadership of ANDSF forces; an overreliance on the small core of effective, elite ANDSF units; the provision to ANDSF units of advanced U.S. equipment that they were unable to maintain on their own; a failure to recognize that the Taliban was an insurgency threat and not a military and terrorist threat; fortifying cities at the expense of the countryside, which made cities giant targets; and a U.S. failure to recognize the Taliban’s shift to major offensive operations in the north of Afghanistan. 

Therefore, any argument that the withdrawal announcement was the deciding factor behind the ANDSF’s collapse would seemingly have to ignore the fact that the ANDSF were steadily failing already. Indeed, as was argued in Jonathan Schroden’s October 2021 paper for the U.S. Military Academy’s CTC Sentinel, “Lessons from the Collapse of Afghanistan’s Security Forces,”:  since the end of the U.S. and NATO combat mission in 2015, the government of Afghanistan was steadily losing territory, controlling just 129 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts in April of 2021 after controlling 217 in November 2017. Furthermore, by that time, fifteen of Afghanistan’s thirty-five provincial capitals were effectively encircled by early 2021, meaning that the Taliban was already a long way towards conquering the country even before President Biden ratified the Trump administration’s deal. 

Source: https://ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/CTC-SENTINEL-082021.pdf#page=56
Source: https://ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/CTC-SENTINEL-082021.pdf#page=56

What’s more, by that time, the percentage of army vehicle repairs being done by Afghans—as opposed to contracted maintenance—was just 19%, far below the 70-80% U.S. goal. Due to these factors—as well as the ones mentioned in the SIGAR and Cordesman reports—Schroden noted in a January 2021 piece that, “the U.S.-led advisory mission since 2015 has not been helping the ANDSF to win, so much as it has been slowing the ANDSF’s losses by improving the forces’ technological advantages over the Taliban,” but that this, “has come at the expense of dependency—the ANDSF are currently far too complex and expensive for the government to sustain,” and that, “if the United States fully withdraws [its] advisors, as stipulated in the U.S.-Taliban agreement, the Taliban’s slight military advantage at that point would begin to grow,” as, “the ANDSF’s technical advantage will erode as maintenance and support functions currently performed or overseen by advisors slow down or cease; and the ANDSF’s major vulnerability—its dependence on foreign funding—will increasingly be at risk, since without U.S. troops in Afghanistan, the United States would have limited ability for oversight of security assistance and less ‘skin in the game.’”

Ultimately, Schroden correctly argues that not only did the ANDSF not collapse in just eleven days, it was slowly collapsing ever since the U.S. withdrawal in 2015. Furthermore, he makes very logical points that the U.S.—by failing to provide the ANDSF with equipment it could handle and maintain by itself—created a crippling dependency on U.S.-supplied equipment that the ANDSF was fundamentally unable to overcome. Even more importantly, the ANDSF did not ever develop the leadership at the top required of a successful organization, as “years of corruption and politicization meant that the Afghan leadership—including the country’s security leadership—was still led by many of the avaricious warlords the Taliban had co-opted or conquered in the 1990s,” as was noted by the Carnegie Endowment’s Jodi Vittori. 

Concluding Thoughts

Former U.S. President John F. Kennedy was alleged to have once said after the Bay of Pigs disaster that, “Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan.” So too were the failures of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces orphaned by U.S. political and military leaders. As CNA’s Jonathan Schroden argues so well, the failure of the ANDSF actually has many fathers; it is merely a question of whether U.S. leadership will decide to acknowledge the failures of their bastard child and learn the lessons from its failures in Afghanistan. As Schroden argues in his paper for West Point’s CTC Sentinel, U.S. failures to reform the security sectors in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq are all evidence of the larger failure of U.S. security sector assistance programs, which too often encourage a mirror-image-like recreation of U.S. military forces. Plans of this nature routinely fail to account for the situation on the ground, and it is clear that few lessons have been internalized by the security community. 

Indeed, CSIS’ Anthony Cordesman has remarked that in Afghanistan, “as was the case with the Army of the Republic of Vietnam (ARVN) after the U.S. withdrawal, the claimed personnel levels could be uncertain, desertions were not properly reported, and pay could be uncertain. Worse, combat assignments could be highly political, and the flow of ammunition, supplies, and reinforcements was poorly managed with a tendency to hoard at higher command levels or by nearby units,” and that, “the U.S. did not simply downplay the level of Afghan dependence on U.S. combat support and train and assist material, it failed to state the degree to which it had repeated the problems in transferring equipment too sophisticated for ARVN and the over sophisticated support systems to maintain it that were created in Vietnam.”

Ultimately, the problems in Afghanistan’s security forces began with the corruption and self-dealing at the top, which went back well over a decade and resulted in “ghost soldiers” pilfering the public treasury as well as a diminished “ability of the Afghan police and military to maintain law and order and protect the Afghan people from violent insurgency.” As Schroden says at the end of his piece, “the answer to ‘who is to blame’ for what happened with Afghanistan’s security forces is complex,” and boiling that down that into one or even just six major issues risks oversimplifying a massively complex system with so many discrete failure modes. 

While the Trump administration’s decision to sign a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban—and the Biden administration’s decision to adhere to it—are undeniably an important causal factor behind the collapse of the ANDSF, it is by no means the primary or even proximate factor behind the failure to create an effective, self-sufficient Afghan security sector. Instead, the seeds for failure were planted shortly after the 2001 invasion and were doubled down on at seemingly every step of the way thereafter. One merely had to be a regular reader of SIGAR’s own quarterly reports to see that the ANDSF was not only not capable of providing effective security even with U.S. troops still present, but that, as presently constructed, they would not reach a point of self-sufficiency for at least a generation. Fundamentally, the plan to construct the ANDSF in the U.S. military’s image was a failure from which U.S. decision makers could never really recover, as such a plan would require an education pipeline in Afghanistan similar to that of U.S. despite Afghanistan’s education system being “devastated by more than three decades of sustained conflict,” and where, “for many of the country’s children, completing primary school remains a distant dream.”

There certainly is a world in which the U.S. were  able to construct efficient, self-sufficient Afghan security forces. However, such a world could never be achieved by pursuing the strategies that  the U.S. pursued for the past twenty years. Therefore, while the decision to withdraw the remaining U.S. troops likely accelerated the ANDSF’s collapse, it was by no means the proximate cause, merely the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back. If the U.S. is to learn its lessons from its failures from Afghanistan, it must start by recognizing that the security sector’s collapse was not only a long-time coming, but entirely predictable, and almost certainly preventable.

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Some of What Happens Then is Hard As Hell to Live Down: Nigeria’s SARS and Baltimore’s GTTF – Two Birds of a Feather

May 6, 2022

On April 25th, the first episode of David Simon and George Pelecanos’ We Own This City premiered on HBO. With their new miniseries, Simon—the creator of the seminal early 2000s TV series The Wire—and Pelecanos—a writer and producer on the early ‘00s classic—tell the real-life story behind the Baltimore Police Department’s (BPD) Gun Trace Task Force (GTTF), an elite police unit created to resolve some of the city’s endemic drug-related violence, which instead stole from Baltimore citizens, planted drugs and guns at crime scenes, and saw eight of its officers eventually sentenced to prison terms for their crimes. 

While Simon and Pelecanos’ series—which is based on the book of the same name by former Baltimore Sun writer Justin Fenton—focuses more on the damage wrought by the United States’ failed, five-decade long “War on Drugs”, the story demonstrates the ease with which corruption can infect elite police units, leading supposed purveyors of stability to instead become agents of instability. While such instability may take on different forms in post-industrial Baltimore than it does in Abuja, Nigeria, police corruption anywhere has a profoundly deleterious effect on the reputation of the forces involved, and damages, “the fabric of trust that must exist between [a police force] and the communities it serves.”

In that way, the story told by Fenton, Simon, and Pelecanos has relevance not only for the residents of Baltimore, but for global citizens, security and development professionals, and essentially anyone interested in the confluence of corruption and instability around the globe. Of particular interest are the similarities that exist between Baltimore’s Gun Trace Task Force and Nigeria’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), which has been accused of abusing thousands of civilians since its creation in 1992. 

Nigeria’s use of anti-robbery squads—which were formed in 1980s to combat a rise in violent crime, including robberies, carjackings, and kidnappings—eventually led to the creation of the Special-Anti-Robbery Squad in 1992 by former police commissioner Simeon Danladi Midenda, allegedly in response to the killing of an army officer by police at a checkpoint in Lagos. Since that time, the unit has been accused by Amnesty International of, “widespread human rights violations including extrajudicial executions, torture, and other ill-treatment, rape and extortion by officers of the SARS,” and was ultimately dissolved on October 11, 2020 after widespread protests in Lagos and other major cities across Nigeria. 

However, while the specific excesses of the GTTF and SARS units ultimately manifested themselves in different forms, the root causes behind their similar cultures of abuse and impunity gets to the heart of the problem that corruption—whether it occurs in a Rust Belt city like Baltimore or largest metropolitan area in Africa—is often shaped and exacerbated by the same institutional pressures. Therefore, in taking lessons from the failures of both the GTTF and SARS, international observers must be careful to note that the intersection of corruption, policing, and instability is not simply an “African problem”; rather, it is a truly global issue.

Police Corruption in Nigeria

According to Transparency International’s 2013, 2015, and 2019 Global Corruption Reports, of the various state bodies with which they interact in their daily lives, most Africans view the police as the most corrupt public institution, with nearly half of African respondents feeling that all or most police officers are corrupt. In Nigeria, for example, that perception is even more heightened, with approximately 60% of Nigerians saying that most or all Nigerian police are involved in corruption. Furthermore, a 2020 Afrobarometer survey found that among Nigerians who had contact with the police, 77% said that they were forced to pay bribes in order to obtain police assistance, or to simply avoid a problem with the police. As a result, slightly under ¼ of Nigerians say that they trust the police “somewhat”, or “a lot”, and less than ⅓ of Nigerians feel that the government is doing “fairly well” or “very well” at fighting corruption or reducing crime. Ultimately, “compared to other key leaders and officials, the police are more widely perceived to be corrupt and less trusted by citizens.”

While 2019 survey data shows that corruption was only the fifth biggest concern for Nigerians—with only 9% of Nigerians stating that corruption is the most important problem facing the country—that low ranking may be due to the rise in insecurity and internal displacement caused by the violence of Boko Haram, which has resulted in over 2.1 million Nigerians becoming internally displaced, and has seen crime and security issues rise to become the most important issue Nigerians feel that the government should be addressing. 

However, Boko Haram is not operating in a vacuum, and its narrative—that it is fighting a government that, “has been seized by a group of corrupt, false Muslims”—is only strengthened by the prevalence of mundane corruption from police officers around the country. However, as was argued in a 2016 paper by the Brookings Institution’s Alex Thurston, “Boko Haram is not alone in resenting the highly educated Nigerian elites who have failed to deliver prosperity to the majority of Nigerians. Many Nigerians decry widespread corruption in government.”

As such, Nigeria would be wise to learn a lesson from the United States’ experience with criminality among officers from its major metropolitan police forces. Specifically, Nigeria might want to take a page from New York City’s 1970s Knapp Commission, which, “presented a much-discussed typology dividing corrupt officers into three general categories: ‘grass-eaters’, who opportunistically accept offers of bribery and free gifts, [and] ‘mean-eaters, who actively and aggressively pursue corrupt activities for personal or departmental gain…” As noted in a 2016 paper from Transparency International UK, “officers accepting a minor ‘grass-eating’ bribe, such as a free coffee, embark on a gradual redefinition of character that will lead to more major, ‘meat-eating’ corruption later on in their career,” and that, “a 2002 report finds similarly that ‘police corruption starts with a series of small acts and in most cases escalates from there…” While it is important to note that not all “grass-eaters” will eventually become “meat-eaters”, such low-level venality is a dangerous warning sign of possible future violations down the line and demonstrates the slippery slope that is police corruption. 

The Special Anti-Robbery Squad

While rampant, low-level, police corruption such as bribery has somewhat decreased in recent years, it does not mean that problems of the Nigerian Police Force have ended. In fact, it can be argued that abuse by members of the police has ramped up in the past decade, especially violence by members of Nigeria’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). The plainclothes unit, which was created to combat armed robbery and kidnapping, has, “evolved over time from a special outfit created by different states commands to address specific violent crimes such as armed robbery, kidnapping, communal violence and religious violence.” Instead, the unit, “has become a bane to effective policing. For one, the unit has been accused of committing extrajudicial killings, brutality, human rights violations, sexual abuse, youth victimisation, summary execution, and extortion. These anti-police activities have reduced police legitimacy and increased people’s dissatisfaction with the police.” 

In its first decade of existence, “combat-ready SARS officers operated in plain clothes and plain vehicles without any security or government insignia and did not carry arms in public. Their main job was to monitor radio communications and facilitate successful arrests of criminals and armed robbers…” However, while SARS only operated in Lagos for its first ten years, in 2002, it spread to all thirty-six states of Nigeria and was folded into the Nigerian Police Force Criminal Investigation and Intelligence Department, with a mandate expanded to include, “arrest, investigation and prosecution of suspected armed robbers, murderers, kidnappers, hired assassins and other suspected violent criminals.”

It was during this expansion in their remit that the force began to mutate into something more predatory, as SARS officers, with their expanded charge to target violent crime, began to carry weapons in public. This led SARS units to begin to set up roadblocks where members extorted money from members of the public, and officers began to be, “implicated in extrajudicial killings, torture, arbitrary arrests, and unlawful detention,” as some corrupt “grass-eating” SARS officers graduated to becoming “meat-eaters.” During this period, “the SARS unit became notorious for targeting young people whose cars or dress suggested middle-class wealth,” with Nigerian musician Omah Lay noting that if the police saw dreadlocks, piercings, or tattoos, they would assume that an individual was automatically an internet scam artist, using the pretext to justify stealing the individual’s cell phone or extort money from them. 

As stated in Amnesty International’s September 2016 report, “‘You have signed your death warrant’: Torture and other ill treatment in the Special Anti-Robbery Squad”, the authors note that, “many detainees in SARS custody are subjected to long periods of detention without trial. Often no one, including their lawyers, has access to those in SARS detention; sometimes families are not aware that their relatives are in SARS custody, and in other cases they are afraid to visit them.” 

In just one example of SARS officers’ abuses, Amnesty International has chronicled how in 2008, Nigerian Samson Adekoya was arrested for robbery in Lagos. While his family was permitted to visit with him shortly after his arrest on February 6, twenty days later, the police informed the family that Samson had fallen ill and died in the hospital on February 11th. A coroner’s inquest later revealed that the man died while in police custody, having died before arrival at Ikorodu General Hospital on February 12, 2008. Furthermore, Amnesty International has also recounted how suspects were held at the vast SARS, slaughterhouse-converted detention center in Abuja, where a police officer unofficially told interviewers that, “many ‘armed robbers’ are taken to the abattoir and shot.” 

In another example of the kinds of abuses committed by SARS officers, Ejembi Pam—who was arrested by SARS police in Plateau state in January 2016—told Amnesty International that he had been severely beaten by SARS officers during his arrest, which resulted in a broken arm, and was subsequently left without treatment for the arm. Furthermore, after his arrest, he was not taken to a court nor given access to either a lawyer or his family for over six months. 

These abuses eventually led Nigerians to create a 2017 social media campaign protesting police abuses, using the hashtag #EndSARS. The campaign was intended to draw attention to the human rights violations committed by the SARS force, and called for, “good governance and an end to police brutality.” However, as noted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Judd Devermont, the campaign soon became, “a much larger critique about Nigeria, everything from police reform to security to extrajudicial killings.” That movement went into high-gear in October 2020, when Nigerians took to the streets after video emerged showing SARS officers killing a young Nigerian man in Delta state. When authorities subsequently arrested the man who made the video, claiming it was fake, Nigerians began to demonstrate in major cities, including Lagos, resulting in Muhammed Adamu, inspector general of Nigerian police, abolishing the SARS task force. 

However, the promised dissolution of the SARS units did not quell protesters anger—especially after Nigerian army and police fired into a crowd of protesters at the Lekki Toll Gate in Lagos on October 20, 2020—as the government’s order to each of Nigeria’s thirty-six states to look into security force abuses saw seven states remain non-compliant. Furthermore, citizens in those states that did convene judicial panels to review incidents of police abuse felt that the tribunals both lacked transparency as well as adequate police participation. 

While legislation such as Nigeria’s 2020 Police Act—and its focus on respect for the human rights of suspects and the strengthening of Nigeria’s Police Complaints Response Unit—were a step in the right direction, more still needs to be done. Not only have the protesters demands not been fully met with regard to the poor working conditions and pay of Nigerian police—a key, underlying driver of police corruption—the government has worked to punish the organizers of the #EndSARS movement, freezing bank accounts and revoking passports of Nigerians supporting the movement. Furthermore, despite abuses by police and army forces at Lekki Toll Gate, no members of the Nigerian security forces have been prosecuted, which only increases ordinary Nigerians’ beliefs that security services operate with impunity.

The Bigger Picture: President Buhari, Poor Police Working Conditions, and Failed Anti-Corruption Efforts

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari—who was carried to victory in 2015 elections by a wave of popular disgust at perceived corruption under former President Goodluck Jonathan, and who subsequently ran on an anti-corruption ticket again in 2019—has seen his efforts to combat corruption repeatedly fail. For example, in 2020, Buhari was forced to remove the head of Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, former police official Ibrahim Magu, over allegations of unethical behavior, including the sale of seized assets. Furthermore, as noted in a 2021 Wilson Center paper by Osei Baffour Frimpong and Richmond Commodore, “while the Nigerian government has responded to the immediate demand for disbandment of SARS, it has yet to address the structural conditions that continue to generate youth-related protests and violence in the country.”

As argued in a 2021 report by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), “Buhari’s Anti-Corruption Record At Six Years: An Assessment,” with elections coming up in 2023, “and [with] Buhari’s hands-off governing style largely unchanged, his government’s anti-corruption track record is set to go down in history as one characterised by missed opportunities and, in some respects, outright hypocrisy.” While the CDD report does note that Buhari has gotten some things right—such as the appointment of an experienced investigator, Abdulrasheed Bawa, to replace Magu at the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission—the Nigerian president still has several shortcomings, which, “include Buhari’s willingness to appoint individuals of questionable integrity to key positions; his tendency to shield political allies from investigation and prosecution; his disinterest in how the ruling party funds its election campaigns; his failure to make key petroleum sector reforms; and his corruption-prone economic and fiscal policies.” 

Importantly, the CDD authors note how, “under Buhari, security sector corruption has become both a cause and a consequence of rising insecurity across the country.” Furthermore, abuse by security forces are essentially permitted, as, “in the great majority of cases, there are no investigations into these [abuses] and no one is prosecuted for them. Torture is committed with impunity,” which, “sends to the torturers the message that they can get away with rights violations.“ Moreover, as noted in a February 2022 piece by the Council on Foreign Relations’ Ebenezer Obadare, Transparency International’s 2021 Corruption Perception Index—which saw Nigeria slide from 149 to 154 out of 180 total countries—has, “confirmed what many Nigerians know intuitively—that a steady stream of official antigraft rhetoric has hardly made a dent on what many agree is the most formidable perennial challenge to the country’s long-term stability.”

Furthermore, as mentioned above, despite failures to rein in abuse and corruption by the state and security forces, the government has instead cracked down on the platforms used in the #EndSARS protests, briefly banning Twitter from June 2021 to January 2022, and enacting a ban on the trading of crypto-currency, which had been used by groups like Nigeria’s Feminist Coalition to raise money for the protests after their accounts were blocked by the Nigerian Central Bank.

Ultimately, failure to root out corruption and abuse by state actors not only results in citizens coming to distrust their own government, but it lays the groundwork for, “a pervasive sense of hopelessness, marginalization and alienation,” of a nation’s citizens, where, “a perceived absence of viable options for bringing about change, and a deep seated resentment of the ostentatious consumption of the dominant class amidst widespread hunger, disease, and physical and emotional abuse by the authorities.” 

As William Hansen of the American University of Nigeria argues in his 2020 paper, “The ugly face of the state: Nigerian security forces, human rights and the search for Boko Haram,” the violent insurgency posed by Boko Haram in Nigeria’s northeast is a perfectly understandable result of nearly a half-century of misrule by a, “parasitic and predatory Nigerian political class.” Hansen’s analysis—which utilizes Crawford Young’s 1995 work, The African Colonial State in Comparative Perspective, as a framework to analyze post-colonial Nigeria—argues that Young’s description of the state as bula matari (rock crusher) is the best way to view the years of governance development in post-independence Nigeria, as the emerging state retained the oppressive “genetic code” of its European predecessors. As such, citizens in newly independent African states began to be treated exactly as they had been during the colonial era, “ as incorrigible, unruly, ungovernable, and requiring force to comply with state directives.” 

In a very real way, that view of Nigeria’s own citizens—as people that are too wild to be managed—forms the very basis for the kinds of harsh over-policing that can lead officers to view all of their fellow citizens as criminals, or at least potential criminals. As such, “Nigerian citizens, especially the poor and powerless, often regard both the police and the military as someone to avoid – as occupation forces, not protectors and upholders of the law.” 

As Nigerian writer Bernard Dayo has stated in a 2020 piece for Al Jazeera, “some say the alternative to over-policing lies in community repair, in confronting insidious orientations can lead to harm.” In that same vein, a 2020 statement by the International Crisis Group has argued that, “the government now needs to commence…reforms urgently and firmly. Reforms need to be comprehensive, not superficial or cosmetic. They need to address a wide range of policing deficits including qualifications for recruitment, training and orientation of recruits, resourcing and remuneration, accountability and respect for citizens’ rights and insulation from political influence, as well as federal versus state balance in policing powers and structures.”

As such, eliminating abusive policing units such as SARS is just the first step towards creating an environment where Nigerians truly feel a part of their communities, able to live without fear of abuse from police or security forces. Moving forward, the government, whether under a third Buhari term or under a new President, will need to ensure that: misconduct reports submitted to the Police Complaints Response Unit are acted on; that the Police Act’s Community Policing Committees be stood up and operationalized in all thirty-six states; and that the Police Trust Fund—intended to provide for the welfare and training of Nigerian police for six years—becomes fully operational. Furthermore, more needs to be done to address the poor pay and working conditions of Nigerian police officers, so that graft and corruption are not such attractive, easy options. Ultimately, the goal of such efforts must be the creation of police units that are both capable of providing security for and accountable to their communities. 

However, while police corruption is a near universal challenge—especially in developing nations—the solution is not simply about reducing the amount of interactions the police have with Nigerian citizens; rather, it is about improving the quality of those interactions so that a police officer’s open hand is seen as a sign of friendship, not a request for a bribe. Ultimately, as stated in a May 2012 report by the Chr. Michelsen Institute’s Anti-Corruption Resource Center, “successful anti-corruption initiatives can strengthen legitimacy and stability by enhancing public trust in government, political actors, and institutions…” Similarly, failed anti-corruption efforts can damage state legitimacy and undermine stability, as perennial failures to tackle unemployment, poverty, inequality, and insecurity—amidst an environment of police abuse and impunity—leads to low state legitimacy and increased state fragility

Pervasive Corruption and Institutional Rot

To fully understand the institutional rot underlying the depravity and corruption illustrated by Nigeria’s SARS unit, one must first understand the true extent of corruption across Nigeria. The fact that corruption is so endemic, so baked-in to the fabric of society, it is almost understandable how police officers, given the extraordinary powers of their job, too often end up abusing that power. 

At the top, despite successive campaigns by Muhammadu Buhari which pledged to fight corruption, graft remains an intractable part of life in Nigeria. For instance, in 2019, Adams Oshiomhole, former National Chairman of Buhari’s All Progressives Congress, told potential defectors from the rival People’s Democratic Party (PDP) that once they abandon the PDP and join the All Progressives Congress, “your sins are forgiven.” Essentially, with his offer, Oshiomhole was promising to shield defectors from prosecution by those in power.

Furthermore, as stated in a December 2019 report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “of all Nigerian citizens surveyed who had at least one contact with a public official in the 12 months prior to the 2019 survey, 30.2 per cent paid a bribe to, or were asked to pay a bribe by, a public official.” While a staggering figure, this actually represented a slight decline from 2016 levels. To provide a bit of regional perspective, across sub-Saharan Africa, public service users pay bribes on just 22% of interactions with officials. What’s worse, in Nigeria, those that paid bribes often have to do so on a regular basis, with Nigerian bribe-payers paying an average of six bribes per year. As a result, the average adult Nigerian pays 1.1 bribe per year in total, or some 117 million bribes in the year leading up to the 2019 survey. 

Compounding the high overall levels of corruption is a permissive environment when it comes to the police use of lethal force. Nigerian Police Force Order 237, which governs the use of firearms, provided for, “much wider scope for the use of lethal force than is permissible under international law and standards. This provision is being abused by some police officers to commit, justify and cover up acts of torture and other forms of ill-treatment, as well as extrajudicial executions,” according to a 2016 report by Amnesty International. While the order has allegedly been amended in the interim, exact changes to the rule have not been specified, so it is unclear how a redesign of the rule will ensure the protection of Nigerians’ human rights moving forward. 

According to the website The Law on Police Use of Force Worldwide—maintained by the Center for Human Rights at the University of Pretoria in South Africa—the broadness of Order 237 arises from Nigeria’s Constitution and Section 33(2), which allows police officers to use lethal force not only to protect citizens from violence, but to defend property; to effect an arrest; to prevent a suspect from fleeing; or to suppress a riot. Not only are these provisions broadly not in conformity with international standards, they allow for orders such as those issued by Buhari on the eve of elections in 2019, when he ordered the military to shoot-to-kill anyone caught stealing ballot boxes. 

Furthermore, while the abuses committed by Nigeria’s SARS units are sickening, they are in no way a significant deviation from Nigeria’s abusive policing history and the state as “bula matari.” As noted in a 2020 article by Columbia University’s Abosede George, “for half of the republic’s 60-year history and for the century of colonial rule before independence there have been quasi-military police forces and outright military police charges with repressing dissent from the civilian population. The history of Nigeria’s police abuses helps us see the continuities in the misuse of state power against civilians.” 

In addition, it should be noted that a key decision taken at independence, to make the Nigerian Police a national force, controlled by the federal government, removed locals’ control over their police forces, which not only makes the police less accountable to local population, it often leads to the officers patrolling an area being from somewhere else, reducing their investment in the community they are policing. As argued by the U.S. Department of Justice’s Community Oriented Policing Services report, “Law Enforcement Best Practices: Lessons Learned from the Field,”  “modern policing rests upon the foundational precept that effective control of crime, disorder, and fear requires community participation and assistance.” Furthermore, the same Department of Justice report argues that, “police legitimacy is critical to preventing and controlling crime,” and that, “legitimacy both stems from and fosters community trust, in a self-reinforcing loop. The opposite is also true: police misconduct serves to undermine the legitimacy of law enforcement and, therefore, its ability to prevent and control crime.” In essence, a, “lack of accountability erodes the legitimacy of the organization, and public support with it.”

While nationalization of police forces is not always a recipe for disaster, even France’s Police Nationale—which historically has a high approval rating from French citizens—has seen protests against violence and racism from the police, along with allegations of abuse by police officers. Even in France, a liberal democratic state in Western Europe, there is a perception that, “French police are beholden to the state, not the people.” Furthermore, as argued by Mathieu Zagrodzki, researcher at the Centre for Sociological Studies on Penal Institutions, police in France, “see youths in the rougher suburbs as uniformly hostile, while on the other side officers are seen as the enemy. In both cases, the enmity is nurtured early on, “ and that in France, “the state designed the police force to surveil and control its citizens.”

In Nigeria, the problems of a nationalized police force bear themselves out in several ways. Not only do locals feel that the police are more inclined to favor elites over ordinary Nigerians, locals often distrust the police since police often approach them with high levels of suspicion and distrust themselves. Furthermore, as argued by Tarela Juliet Ike, Danny Singh, Dung Ezekiel Jidong, Lawrence Mieyebi Ike and Evangelyn Ebi Ayobi in their paper, “Public perspectives of interventions aimed at building confidence in the Nigerian police: a systematic review,” even during Nigeria’s attempts at community policing, “the police felt community policing tended to fail its desired aims due to limited cooperation from the public,” and that the “public were wary of the perceived effectiveness of community policing due to the lack of confidence in the police force.” 

In the end, Nigerians’ relationship with their police force is complicated by a historical antagonism by the police towards ordinary citizens, who too many members of the police view as dangerous, potential criminals. This adversarial relationship between officers and the communities they police can only serve to heighten the disconnect between the groups, which allows police to view those they are meant to protect as potential enemies—which only serves to stir up even more community mistrust. Finally, Nigerians’ skeptical relationship with the police is compounded by the overarching pervasiveness of government corruption—which exists everywhere from Nigeria’s land administration to its judicial system—which drives citizens’ lack of trust in government officials and agencies. 

SARS and GTTF: Birds of a Feather

On March 1, 2017, seven members of the Baltimore Police Department’s Gun Trace Task Force were indicted on charges of racketeering conspiracy and racketeering—including acts of robbery, extortion, and overtime fraud—in what has been called the most extensive and damaging corruption scandal in the Department’s history. The officers involved, Wayne Jenkins, Momodu Gondo, Evodio Hendrix, Daniel Hersl, Jemell Rayam, Marcus Taylor, and Maurice Ward were charged with crimes including, “robberies committed during street stops, traffic stops, and residential searches; false affidavits and police reports submitted to facilitate their crimes; and massive overtime fraud accomplished through lying about the hours worked by the BPD members.”

As a result of the indictment, Gondo, Hendrix, Rayam, and Ward began to cooperate with the government and outlined the full extent of the criminal enterprise conducted by the GTTF. However, despite the GTTF being created in 2007, and Gondo, Hendrix, Rayam, and Ward not joining the unit until June of 2016, “by their own admission, each of them had been engaging in corrupt activities and committing crimes against the public years before being transferred to that squad.”

In essence, the story of Baltimore’s GTTF is not too dissimilar from that of Nigeria’s SARS: units operating in a longstanding environment of corruption and inadequate supervision, coupled with a permissive atmosphere for abusive behavior as long as it came with results. Similar too were the overall conditions surrounding the units’ creations: SARS was formed in the 1990s to combat rising incidences of armed robbery in Lagos and across southern Nigeria; whereas the GTTF was formed in 2007 to combat rising violent gun crime in Baltimore. Also similar, while SARS was initially formed to hunt robbers and bandits, its remit soon morphed into a mandate to arrest, investigate, and prosecute suspected robbers, murderers, kidnappers, assassins, and myriad other violent criminals. Likewise, BPD’s GTTF was initially designed to trace the origins of guns used during the commission of crimes in Baltimore, but soon devolved into a being a street enforcement unit whose job became taking violent criminals off the streets. 

Yet another similarity between the units is the fact that both SARS and the GTTF were plainclothes units, focused on “the worst of the worst” offenders in their areas of responsibility, and, as such, received lax oversight from the agencies that should have been watching over them. In addition, not only were protests about police impunity in Baltimore and Nigeria both sparked by video of abuse of citizens by police, both the #EndSARS protests and the protests in Baltimore after Freddie Gray’s killing became part of broader conversations about the systemic policing problems that have existed in both Baltimore and Nigeria for decades. 

There is also the similar inability by the respective governments to deal with police impunity and lawlessness. In Nigeria, authorities pledged to reform SARS in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 before finally disbanding the group in October 2020. Similarly, in the first two decades of the 2000s, Baltimore’s Police Department showed little interest in holding its own officers accountable for transgressions. The department’s lack of interest in officer accountability can be demonstrated by a 2014 motor vehicle stop involving GTTF officer Wayne Jenkins. That incident—wherein officer Jenkins arrested a Baltimore man named Walter Price and claimed to have found cocaine in Price’s car based on bogus or possibly even fabricated information allegedly obtained from an “informant”—not only demonstrated the lawless behavior of a future GTTF unit member, but showed the inability and unwillingness of BPD to police itself. 

In investigating the case, Assistant State’s Attorney Molly Webb found that video evidence showed a large, suspicious, delay between the time when Price was stopped and the supposed recovery of the drugs. The case was therefore turned over to Baltimore’s Police Integrity Unit, which investigated Jenkins and officer Bejnamin Freiman, a member of Jenkins’s Westside Baltimore enforcement squad who alleged that he had received specific information that an informant had arranged to buy cocaine from Price at that time and location. However, when Frieman was interviewed by Baltimore PIU and Internal Affairs officers, “he was unable to provide satisfactory answers about the alleged recovery of the drugs from Price’s car, claiming that he did not see Jenkins seize narcotics.” 

In the end, not only did the Police Integrity Unit determine that Jenkins had failed to properly supervise Frieman, including the submission of Frieman’s false and misleading statement of probable cause, along with the illegal and improperly documented detention of the suspect’s girlfriend and child at the site of the stop. Based on the investigation, Michelle Bolden of BPD Internal Affairs, “firmly believed Jenkins had planted the drugs in Price’s vehicle, but she did not have sufficient evidence to prove it.” 

However, following the submission of Bolden’s report—and a BPD charging committee recommendation that Jenkins be demoted, transferred to the Bureau of Patrol, receive a severe letter of reprimand, and lose fifteen days of leave—Jenkins requested a trial board, which was scheduled for September 30, 2015, but never took place. Instead, the punishment was, “reduced to almost nothing. The only sanction imposed on Jenkins was non-punitive written counseling.” The comprehensive investigative report compiled by Steptoe & Johnson for the city of Baltimore ultimately concluded that, “in almost every respect, the Price case revealed the profound weaknesses in BPD’s accountability system. The case was deemed insufficiently strong to be criminally prosecuted, even in the face of what appeared to be a series of clearly false statements provided by Frieman. The IA investigator assembled circumstantial evidence that Jenkins had planted the evidence in Price’s car and believed that he had done so, but concluded it could not be proven—even by a preponderance of the evidence standard—to a trial board inclined to be sympathetic to officers.” In the end, the incident, “reinforce[d] the lessons that [Jenkins] had learned repeatedly before—that BPD was incapable of requiring accountability for misconduct, especially with respect to a productive officer.” 

Despite these types of incidents, the Steptoe & Johnson report alleged that, “during the second half of 2015, plainclothes units, including Jenkins’s SES unit and the GTTF…came to be viewed by senior BPD commanders as a bulwark against chaos,” with Jenkins specifically, “given special privileges: he was assigned his own personal BPD vehicle, and he was allowed to equip the vehicle with a push bumper, whose main purpose was to ram other vehicles. In addition, he was held out as a model to other supervisors based on his productivity, and he was allowed to circumvent the chain of command, thus undermining the lieutenants who nominally supervised him.”

This treatment of special units as somehow above the chain of command, or even the rule of law, fundamentally warps the relationship between an officer and the community they are assigned to protect, and inevitably leads to an “us vs. them” mentality amongst some officers. Too often, officers in such special units are allowed to feel that as long as they are generating arrest and seizures, then anything that they do to achieve their results is permissible. Moreover, a lack of accountability and robust oversight merely encourages police misconduct and robs civilians of trust in the system that is supposed to protect them. 

Just as a June 2020 Amnesty International report charted, “a pattern of abuse of power by SARS officers and the consistent failure by the Nigerian authorities to bring perpetrators to justice,” the 2022 Steptoe & Johnson report documented the abuses of the GTTF and the persistent failure by BPD and city authorities to punish the offending officers. Eventually, citizens in Nigeria and Baltimore both reached a breaking point: in Baltimore, it was the April 2015 death of Freddie Gray while in police custody; whereas in Nigeria, it was the October 2020 release of a video showing SARS officers dragging two men from a hotel and shooting one of them outside in the street that sparked protests. In the end, both communities had had enough with police abuse and impunity, and citizens took to the streets in protest. 

Fixing the Mess – Reforming the Police and Repairing the Relationship with the Community

In many ways, the situations facing Nigeria and Baltimore are largely alike. As an October 2020 statement from the International Crisis Group argued, in Nigeria, “the government now needs to commence…reforms urgently and firmly. Reforms need to be comprehensive, not superficial or cosmetic. They need to address a wide range of policing deficits including qualifications for recruitment, training and orientation of recruits, resourcing and remuneration, accountability and respect for citizens’ rights and insulation from political influence, as well as federal versus state balance in policing powers and structures.” Similarly, the 2022 Steptoe & Johnson report states that BPD needs to address a range of what it called the, “chronic weaknesses we found to have existed in BPD with respect to supervision, the overemphasis on statistical measures, accountability, and the existence of an “us vs. them” mentality,” in addition to addressing issues of government interference in the daily function of the BPD as well as cheating and corner-cutting at the Police Academy. 

What’s more, just as the GTTF report notes that, “former leaders of BPD expressed grave concern about the degree to which city leaders have involved themselves in internal police department matters,” the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has noted that in Nigeria, “powerful individuals and politicians are resisting police reform because they would prefer to have the police in their pockets, serving their own interests rather than the public’s.” Though it should be noted that while buy-in from the political class is a key for police reform, it is just as essential that politicians refrain from unduly meddling in the day-to-day running of their police departments.

Going forward, not only will Baltimore and Abuja have to internalize and act on these recommendations, they will have to do so while dealing with the fact that the pool of personnel may already be poisoned. As David Simon has said about his 2002 series, The Wire, “we wrote the last words of The Wire 14 years ago. That’s a generation in the life of the police department when you consider that the average police career is about 20 years. Basically, the drug war that we argued against in The Wire continued apace to the point where generations of cops who had learned how not to do the job and how not to police properly were now colonels and majors. And they’re now teaching the next generation how not to do the job.”

Sadly, a similar thing could be said in Nigeria as well. Not only will the federal government need to work to rein in unruly, abusive, and often disobedient police units, it must do so while simultaneously improving working conditions for average officers so that they do not feel compelled to engage in criminal activity in the first place. Furthermore, Abuja will need to ensure that remaining “bad apples” do not impede the government’s efforts to achieve a more responsive and responsible police force. 

As for the United States, if it wants to do more to assist Nigeria in reforming its police, the Brookings Institution’s Alex Thurston recommends that, “in the long term, the U.S. should continue to urge Nigerian authorities to reform the security forces. Washington should use legal and policy tools—such as revoking visas—to signal a policy of zero toleration for corruption and poor governance.” In addition, while the United States can do little about individual Nigerian officers’ feelings of impunity, the U.S. might also want to: offer funding to efforts to support implementation of Nigeria’s 2020 Police Act and its Police Trust Fund which addresses poor police working conditions; encourage action be taken on the 2020 report, “Lagos State Judicial Panel of Inquiry on Restitution for Victims of SARS Related Abuses and Other Matters,” which recommended inquiries into abuse by SARS units; support further development of Nigeria’s Police Complaint Response Unit; and work with Nigerian security agencies to address their lack of human and technical capacity to detect and investigate crime.

As with Baltimore’s Gun Trace Task Force, Nigeria’s SARS units were not the only police units engaged in corruption—merely the most brazen. Furthermore, just as the short-hand used to describe the incidents, “‘the GTTF scandal’ — masked the fact that the corruption as much broader and deeper than the activities of that squad,” the #EndSARS hashtag obfuscates the fact that police corruption in Nigeria is rampant and not simply confined to certain elite units. However, as in Baltimore, that corruption does not simply stem from individual police officer venality, but rather, a systemic indifference towards the abuses committed by police in the name of “reducing crime.” 

In David Simon’s The Wire, the character, Lt. Daniels, one of the most well-respected characters in the series, in addressing a newly promoted officer about whom he has ethics concerns, tells the officer that: 

“Couple weeks from now, you’re gonna be in some district somewhere with 11 or 12 uniforms looking to you for everything. And some of them are gonna be good police. Some of them are gonna be young and stupid. A few are gonna be pieces of s—. But all of them will take their cue from you. You show loyalty, they learn loyalty. You show them it’s about the work, it’ll be about the work. You show them some other kinda game, then that’s the game they’ll play. I came on in the Eastern, and there was a piece-of-s— lieutenant hoping to be a captain, piece-of-s— sergeants hoping to be lieutenants. Pretty soon we had piece-of-s— patrolmen trying to figure the job for themselves. And some of what happens then is hard as hell to live down. Comes a day you’re gonna have to decide whether it’s about you or about the work.”

The lesson being offered by Daniels was that the character of an organization is set from the top-down. If leadership displays a commitment to the rule of law and accountable behavior, then that is what the individual members of that organization will also tend to demonstrate. If, however, leadership shows that everyone is out for themselves and that the rules do not always apply to individuals that perform well, then the organization will tend to reflect that as well. 

In Nigeria, as with Baltimore, individual officers too often received the message that they must look out for themselves, as the state would be unlikely to provide them with the pay or training to be capable or effective in the execution of their jobs. As a result, police officers ended up playing their own games, looking to benefit wherever they could, as the institutional message they received was that everything was ok, even violent abuse, as long as they continued to make arrests and subjugate the often unruly population.

In addition to larger structural problems such as poverty, unemployment, and generally poor governance, the excesses of Baltimore’s Gun Trace Task Force, just like those of Nigeria’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad, were brought on by institutional pressures to halt violent crime at any cost, even if it meant violating the civil liberties of the citizens they were sworn to protect. Furthermore, in Nigeria, as with Baltimore, the impunity granted to police officers in the name of crime prevention has resulted not only in lawless police forces, but forces that are unable to actually prevent or prosecute the kinds of violent crime that such lax oversight was intended to stop. As a result, both Nigeria and Baltimore have seen ever-increasing rises in the murder rates despite such aggressive policing tactics. 

Consequently, resolving these issues is not merely about ridding these units of “a few bad apples,” but rather refactoring their institutional structures so that officers concentrate more on addressing the needs of their communities, instead of a focus on “crime prevention” that too often leads officers to harass and intimidate ordinary citizens. In the end, the damage done by corrupt police units is not simply confined to the list of abuses committed by officers against individual Baltimoreans and Nigerians; rather, that corruption makes it harder to repair the police-community relationship and undermines future efforts to actually combat crime.

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The Long Shadow of the War in Ukraine: Managing Escalation, Reconstruction, and NATO Force Planning After the Russian Invasion

April 29, 2022

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs this week, in their weekly Humanitarian Impact Situation Report for Ukraine, noted that, “the ongoing war continues to exacerbate a massive humanitarian crisis,” and that, “over 24 million people – more than half of Ukraine’s population – will need humanitarian assistance in the months ahead.” Furthermore, the war has, “caused the world’s fastest growing displacement crisis since the Second World War, uprooting nearly 13 million people.”

However, the war’s effects are not only confined to Eastern Europe. As discussed a few weeks ago in these pages, the Russian war in Ukraine is truly a global problem, with important implications for China, India, Pakistan, Israel, Venezuela, and beyond. However, the war also poses major questions for governments in the United States and Europe, as they grapple with Russia’s military and economic escalations in Ukraine. Specifically, Western governments will need to resolve questions about how to manage Russian escalation during the war; how the war will affect the United Nations system and the NATO alliance; and what will need to be done to put Ukraine back up on its feet after the war’s conclusion. Moving forward, the war in Ukraine will need to transform not only how Western nations respond to Russia on the battlefield, but how they address the problems posed by Putin’s Russia in between crises, as well.

Managing Escalation

However, the first way in which the war in Ukraine must transform Western nations’ understanding of and response to Russia is indeed on the battlefield. Specifically, NATO members will need to better understand how to respond to Putin’s escalations in Ukraine; as Putin comes to the realization that Russia has already failed to achieve its war aims in Ukraine, he will likely continue to escalate his attacks on Ukraine’s civilian populace. In response, the U.S. and its European NATO allies will need to properly manage these dynamics, or else they risk either giving in to Putin’s reckless behavior or encouraging him to escalate even further in order to get what he wants.

Taking that into consideration, it is useful to examine an April 21st report from the Atlantic Council’s Richard D. Hooker, Jr., “Climbing the ladder: How the West can manage escalation in Ukraine and beyond,” which argues that escalation in Ukraine can be grouped into four discrete “rungs” of action, the triggering of which will depend on Putin’s view of how well or poorly the campaign in Ukraine is going at the present moment. Hooker argues that the major triggers for escalation up the ladder would be an assessment that the campaign has temporarily stalled; that it has stalled outright; or that a total defeat is near. 

All of those scenarios might see Putin decide to increase the pressure on Ukraine and the West so that they capitulate or come to some form of agreement that is acceptable to Russia. However, while Putin may not require the total annexation of Ukraine in order to consider the military campaign in Ukraine a success, he will undoubtedly desire concessions that the West and Ukraine’s government are unwilling to give. Therefore, it is vital to understand where and how Putin might escalate the military operation in Ukraine, and determine—in advance—what reactions NATO members should take to such provocations.

While the “first rung” of Hooker’s escalation ladder has likely already been reached—as Putin witnessed the initial failure of his invasion and began to direct the indiscriminate attacks on civilians—there is room for the threat to intensify, as Russia has already begun to threaten Ukraine with nuclear attacks. Furthermore, Russia has already conducted major cyberattacks to support its military strikes in Ukraine, yet another indication that Putin is ready to move up the escalation ladder in response to the overall lack of progress by the Russian armed forces. 

Hooker’s “second rung” could be reached if Russian forces fail in its efforts to encircle the Joint Force Operation (JFO) in Donbas and a long-term stalemate seems likely. At this rung of the escalation ladder, Hooker argues, Russia is likely to expand military conscription, mobilize reserves, and strip remote areas of their garrisons in order to supplement and augment the roughly 15,000 troops that Russia has lost in the war so far. Furthermore, in the Black Sea, where Russia has naval dominance due to the strictures of the Montreux Convention, Russia could look to disrupt shipping by boarding commercial vessels at sea, bombarding coastal cities, and interdicting coastal motorways and rail lines. 

Economically, Putin may have already entered the second rung of the escalation ladder, as he has already endeavored to increase the number of troops at his disposal, and has begun to cut off the delivery of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria—which may be merely a warning sign of more cuts to come for Central and Eastern European nations. Furthermore, Moscow has already taken steps to nationalize the assets held by U.S. and EU countries in Russia, which has already caused the flight of nearly 400 Western companies from the country. However, as a world leading producer of fertilizer, wheat, palladium, and nickel, Russia still has enormous impact on global commodity markets, and the removal of its products from those markets damage foreign economies as well as Russia’s. 

A “third rung” of Hooker’s escalation scale could be arrived at if sanctions continue to eat into Russia’s economic growth, casualties and attrition mount, and Putin’s chances for anything he can sell to the Russian public as a decisive victory shrink. According to Hooker’s report, such a scenario could trigger even more unrestrained assaults on cities, with more widespread use of thermobaric weapons; a redoubled Russian efforts to encircle and eliminate Ukrainian troops in the JFO area; a demonstration or test of a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon to raise the stakes for Zelenskyy and the West; greater targeting of Ukraine’s communication infrastructure; heightened rhetoric about the existential nature of the war in Ukraine; and a disruption of oil and gas shipments to Europe in order to pressure European leaders to cut off support to Ukraine. 

Finally, Hooker’s “fourth rung” could be reached in the case of a prolonged stalemate or if Putin views military defeat as imminent. In either scenario, Putin—viewing the war in Ukraine in existential terms not only because of a tendentious and fallacious belief that Ukraine is full of Nazis, but because failure to achieve his goals despite Western sanctions could possibly force a regime change in Moscow—would likely determine that he had little left to lose, and would subsequently be liable to do just about anything in response. In such a scenario, Hooker argues that Putin would have a few major options at his disposal, including: cyber tools, weapons of mass destruction—including nuclear weapons—and attempts to destabilize areas outside of Ukraine.

In terms of cyber tools, Putin could target critical national infrastructure such as transport and power grids—including Ukraine’s fifteen nuclear reactors—healthcare systems, government facilities, and the financial sector. When it comes to the use of weapons of mass destruction, Russia has already laid the groundwork for their own use of chemical weapons by falsely accusing the U.S. and Ukraine of conducting chemical weapons research on Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, there are allegations that Russia has already violated international norms, employing chemical weapons during the siege of Mariupol. 

Source: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/04/16/what-will-it-cost-to-rebuild-ukraine
Source: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/04/16/what-will-it-cost-to-rebuild-ukraine

Putin may also decide to target areas outside Ukraine in order to sow more chaos and further complicate the regional picture. For example, there are already reports that Russia may be laying the groundwork for a false flag operation in the breakaway state in Moldova, setting the scene for Russian troops already stationed there to create a southern land bridge between Donbas and Crimea, allowing Russia to strangle Kyiv. Similarly, Russia might be prepared to shoot the Suwalki Gap, cutting off the Baltic states from Poland and linking up Russian Kaliningrad with Belarus and the rest of Russia’s territory. However, such a scenario is more likely to occur once Putin has already achieved success in Ukraine, has had time to regroup his forces, and can refocus his attention to another theater.

Finally, Putin ultimately has the option of escalating to the use of nuclear weapons in or around Ukraine. The Atlantic Council report argues that such a strike would likely take the form of a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon, or possibly a nuclear “accident” at one of Ukraine’s nuclear reactors. Though Hooker argues that a low-level nuclear attack would not necessarily escalate out of control, and could give Putin the leverage he needs to gain Ukraine’s submission, such an attack would even further isolate Russia from the international community—a pariah status that Putin may find impossible to shake off once it sets in. 

Controlling Russian Escalation

Hooker’s report closes by offering a series of principles to guide NATO’s assessment of Russian escalation, along with steps to help prevent unwanted escalation in the first place. To begin, he argues that the West must continue to arm Ukraine, helping the Ukrainian armed forces either defeat Russia or at least draw it into a stalemate that does not allow Putin to declare victory. 

Secondly, Hooker argues that if NATO does eventually intervene in the conflict, it must do so decisively, either setting up a no fly zone—which would involve shooting down Russian aircraft— or sending special operations forces and communications specialists to help train Ukrainian forces. While both moves would be escalatory and risk a full blown conflict between Russia and the West, they could be necessitated by credible allegations of genocide and further heinous war crimes perpetrated by Russian forces.

Hooker also argues that in order to forestall future Russian aggression, the U.S. and its European NATO allies should increase their forward presence in Eastern Europe, as countries such as Lithuania request greater reassurance. Along those lines, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley has already proposed increasing the number of rotational forces at permanent bases in Poland and the Baltic states, and NATO has announced the formation of four new battlegroups to reassure allies in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.

Hooker’s fourth recommendation is that the US and NATO must take clear stances on nuclear policy, arguing that articulating a hysterical fear of Russian nukes only emboldens Russian leadership, as they can use the threat of nuclear use as a cudgel to gain what they seemingly cannot win on the battlefield. As former U.S. Principal Deputy Director for National Intelligence David C. Gompert has recently stated in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, “the more the U.S. falls for Mr. Putin’s nuclear messaging, and the more we signal that the U.S. dreads nuclear war more than Russia does, the less restrained Mr. Putin will be in Ukraine, and the more Ukrainian lives will be lost.” 

Hooker also recommends that the West employ economic tools as the primary offensive weapons against Russia. However, to make those economic tools effective, they must be used to their fullest extent possible. This means closing off loopholes for Russian banks in the energy sector, and barring Russian metals from commodity exchanges in London and Chicago. However, Hooker is careful to note that BRICS countries remain open to trade with Russia and are a key lifeline for the Russian economy. 

The sixth recommendation in the Atlantic Council report is that Western nations need to be ready for Russian escalation in cyberspace. As mentioned above, Russia has already made extensive use of cyber tools during the war, correlating cyberattacks on Ukrainian telecom infrastructure while simultaneously conducting military attacks as well. A clear, early demonstration of the West’s cyber red-lines would be valuable so as to communicate to Russia that the West has similar tools at their disposal, and that Russia would be wise to keep theirs in their bag.

Finally, Hooker closes by arguing for sustained diplomatic unity amongst Western allies; though it must be recognized that Ukrainians will be the ultimate decision maker on when, why, and how to terminate hostilities. While the U.S. and its European NATO allies may be tempted to intervene in order to achieve a peaceful early resolution to the conflict, this is a war being fought by Ukrainians, and only Ukrainians are permitted to say when they have had enough. In the meantime, more votes condemning Russian aggression at the UN General Assembly, and successful votes to remove them from bodies such as the Human Rights Council are both strong ways to demonstrate international opposition to the Russian war in Ukraine.

Readying for the Long-Term

However, being ready for Russian escalation is not the only requirement for Western decision makers. They need to be better prepared for an extended period of tension with Russia under Vladimir Putin. In another recent report, “The Ukraine War: Preparing for the Longer-Term Outcome,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) Anthony Cordesman—with the assistance of Grace Hwang—argues that, “it is far too early to predict the ultimate outcome of the Ukraine War, but it is all to clear that no peace settlement or ceasefire is likely to eliminate a long period of military tension between the U.S. – including NATO and its allies – and anything approaching President Putin’s future version of Russia, nor will any resolution of the current conflict negate the risk of new forms of war. It is equally clear that the U.S. and NATO need to act as quickly as possible to prepare for an intense period of military competition and must create a more secure deterrent and improve their capability to defend against Russia.”

Indeed, one of the few clear outcomes in the first nine weeks of war in Ukraine is that whatever happens, the West must be ready to defend against a newly assertive Russia. Taking that into consideration, Cordesman’s report offers an interesting insight into how the U.S. and its NATO allies will need to better coordinate if they are to meet the challenge posed by Vladimir Putin. While the Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred some forms of soul-searching by governments in Berlin, Helsinki, Stockholm, and Brussels, it is clear that more needs to be done to make up for years of cuts to and underfunding of European militaries, as readiness and modernization deficiencies have left NATO members unready to face a newly assertive Russia. Cordesman argues that European NATO countries will not only need to make up for years of underfunded militaries, but they will have to do so at a time when the impacts of inflation from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine will eat into whatever budget increases European parliaments do ultimately approve.

Cordesman’s report argues that in order to move towards a more functional and effective NATO, member states need to abandon the 2% of GDP spending guideline for NATO militaries. Such a determined focus on an abstract spending target not only obscured the fact that, in the years leading up to the war, Russian defense spending was dwarfed by NATO Europe alone, but it also did little to convince European publics that spending increases were warranted, as no real assessment of the threat posed by the Russian military ever accompanied the spending goals. Cordesman notes that not only did a majority of members still spend under NATO’s 2% guideline—with economic powerhouse Germany only spending 1.5% of its GDP on defense in 2021—but few countries possessed the modern equipment required for a fight against a peer competitor. Cordesman argues that when looking at weapons holdings; technology levels; and the command, control, computers, communications, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems of NATO members, it is clear that even countries that do meet the 2% goal frequently need to actually spend over 3% to offset aging weapons systems and steady cuts in military force size

The CSIS report argues that, moving forward, NATO members need to pay better attention to information warfare; arms control; programming, planning, and budgeting (PPB); and force planning. Specifically, in the field of information warfare, Cordesman is actually not necessarily arguing for new technology to defeat Russia in cyberspace; rather he is advocating for states to provide better, unclassified, information to the public on the array of threats they face. Such information will help states justify to their domestic populations requests for greater military spending and modernization. 

As part of states’ efforts to better inform their publics of the threats they face, Cordesman argues that countries need to make better use of net assessments, which the U.S. Department of Defense defines as, “comparative assessment of trends, key competitions, risks, opportunities, and future prospects of U.S. military capabilities.” Furthermore, as argued in “Net Assessment: A Practical Guide,” Yale’s Paul Bracken argues that, “net assessment tends to study issues that are important but overlooked,” and that net assessment attempts to prevent leaders from muddling through problems, as pushing through with poor understanding of the overall situation, “can produce a ‘tyranny of small decisions’, where responding to short-term pressures lays the groundwork for much bigger problems later on,” such as the UK’s refusal to acknowledge the dangerous rise of Hitler in the 1930s. Put another way, as argued by Yee-Kuang Heng in a 2008 paper for the journal Contemporary Security Policy, “net assessment incorporates the Sun Tzu adage of war: know the enemy and know yourself.” 

However, as Cordesman notes, NATO has not conducted a robust assessment of either its own capabilities or Russia’s, though the creation of a new net assessment office was one of the recommendations made in the report, “NATO 2030: United for a New Era,” released in November 2020. If NATO planners had done so earlier, not only would they have recognized that NATO’s European members collectively outspend Russia all by themselves, but that when their spending is combined with Canada and the U.S., Russian defense spending only equals about 16% of the $1.113 trillion spent by the entire NATO Alliance. Therefore, it is not simply about getting European NATO members to spend more—though that may be a part of the equation—but about getting them to spend smartly, so that member states have the training and equipment to seamlessly coordinate their modernized forces for joint all-domain operations

As part of this effort, Cordesman argues, states will need to abandon—or at least heavily supplement—grand strategic documents like NATO 2030 or the EU Strategic Compass, as their broad strategic frameworks obfuscate the problems that NATO and its members face in terms of modernization and interoperability. Vague, sweeping, strategic goals not only do not help NATO members meet the Russian threat, such pronouncements do not address the fundamental problem that many states lack the troops and equipment to act together coherently, effectively, and efficiently to achieve tactical, operational, and strategic objectives.

Therefore, what is required is a better way to bridge the broad outlines provided by NATO and EU strategy documents with, “concrete goals, numbers, schedules, and costs for procurement, allocation, manpower, force structure, and detailed operational capabilities.” While the Russian invasion of Ukraine has clearly prompted European leaders to focus on defense more than they had in the past few decades, the situation offers a unique chance for NATO member states to better coordinate their defense spending so that spending is not just harmonized alliance-wide, but that spending addresses key deficiencies in individual members’ militaries. As part of this, Cordesman proposes an integrated NATO planning, programming, and budgeting system, linked with a net assessment of the threat posed by Russia, that would allow NATO command  in Brussels to review country-by-country military improvements in order to determine what more individual states need to accomplish.

As another part of this effort, Cordesman also proposes that the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency begin issuing new yearly editions of Russia Military Power, which was last published in 2017 and looks at the unclassified military data necessary to support a net assessment of Russian military capabilities. Such documents are still made available for countries such as North Korea and China, and a return to publishing Russia Military Power would be useful for NATO decision makers and academics alike as they assess the state of their and their rivals’ militaries.

The CSIS paper also argues that NATO member states need to set clear goals for improving the interoperability of their combat units, giving NATO the ability to harmoniously conduct joint operations across a range of domains including land, sea, and air, but also space, autonomous operations, and cyber warfare. Too often, the larger, more wealthy NATO members are relied on in these areas—as they are the only ones with the expensive platforms and enablers needed to conduct such activity—to the detriment of the alliance’s ability to integrate all member states troops in a major operation against a peer competitor such as Russia or China.

Finally, the Cordesman paper ends by arguing that NATO members need to be better prepared to respond to attacks by, and conduct their own assaults with, long-range precision fires, unmanned systems, and air platforms. Cordesman notes that while Russia’s Air Force has not exactly covered themselves with glory in its operations in Ukraine, it has not fundamentally altered Western nations’ calculus when it comes to the threat posed by Russian planes and missiles. As a 2020 Rand Corporation report on European Contributions to NATO’s Future Combat Airpower notes, despite NATO allies increasing investment in new aircraft and precision guided munitions, “European air forces may struggle to maintain platforms that are strained from rigorous deployment, in need of scarce parts, or nearing the end of their operational life.” Furthermore, as Cordesman notes, few European NATO members have long-range, conventionally-armed precision guided missile strike systems, and it will take time to remedy this, when Russia has already put a major emphasis on advanced, layered air- and missile-defense. This is in addition to the problems posed by Russia’s expanding and modernized nuclear arsenal, which are magnified when compared to France and the UK’s relatively small complement of nuclear weapons. 

Source: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat
Source: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

Ultimately, for Cordesman, the war in Ukraine, and the wake-up call it provided to European capitals is the perfect opportunity to do something that the Alliance should have done decades ago: conduct a fundamental review of the equipment, troop levels, technology, spending levels, and goals of each member state and their main rivals, and incorporate those findings into an overall assessment of what the Alliance is able to accomplish with today’s equipment. Not only would such an assessment provide a more complete picture of the threat posed by Europe’s main antagonist—Russia—it would give NATO members a better understanding of how they could respond in an eventual crisis.

The War’s Long Shadow at the UN

In addition to being a wake-up call for European NATO members, the Russian invasion of Ukraine also serves as an important warning to the United States, specifically in regards to how it behaves at the United Nations. As argued by the United States Institute of Peace’s (USIP) Andrew Cheatham, the 2000s saw a decline in U.S. participation in the global system founded after the end of the Second World War, as it failed to ratify the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, blocked appointments to the WTO, and withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement. 

It is amidst this U.S. withdrawal from the international system that Russia invaded Ukraine, with the UN Security Council (UNSC) seemingly powerless to do anything to stop the bloodshed. Therefore, as Cheatham argues in his piece, U.S. decision makers need to rebuild the case for U.S. leadership at the UN by: building a broad coalition of states to defend the liberal international order against an authoritarian onslaught from Russia or China; paying its unpaid membership dues so as to support UN peacekeeping operations; and recognizing that while the U.S. does shoulder the largest percentage of UN dues, that amount still pales in comparison to the cost of direct U.S. military engagement

Another thing the U.S. might pursue in light of the war—and the subsequent failure of the UN Security Council to stop it—would be to pursue Security Council reform. With the five permanent UNSC members divided into rival geopolitical blocs the Council members’ veto power prevents real action on vital decisions like the war in Ukraine. One recommendation for reform comes from the Brookings Institution’s Kemal Derviş and José Antonio Ocampo, who suggest that Article 27 of the UN Charter be changed, eliminating the permanent member veto. Derviş and Ocampo suggest that instead, a supermajority of ⅔ of UN member countries could instead be used to override a Security Council veto. While such a move would undoubtedly be vetoed by Russia or China, a majority of countries might indeed support it, and it would allow the U.S. to reassert its leadership at the multilateral body and demonstrate its commitment to democratic principles over autocratic obstructionism

In parallel to that effort, Cheatham proposes the U.S. strengthen other United Nations mechanisms for peace and security, including by increasing U.S. funding to the UN Peacebuilding Fund from the paltry amount it contributed between 2016-2020. The U.S. could also contribute more resources to the UN’s Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, working with the UN Peacebuilding Commission and Peacebuilding Support Office, as well.

Finally, the USIP analysis argues that the U.S. needs to help build a stronger system of international accountability, so that Russian war crimes in Ukraine will be properly adjudicated by the international community. While acknowledging that U.S. ratification of the Rome Statute has historically been a non-starter, it is important to note that Congressional Republicans may be shifting somewhat on the ratification of the International Criminal Court’s founding document. In addition to ratifying the Rome Statute, Cheatham argues that that the U.S. and its allies should share declassified intelligence with international prosecutors; support efforts to collect open-source data as evidence of possible Russian war crimes; augment the capacity of international investigations by seconding Department of Justice staff to international courts; and by continuing the U.S.’ own investigations into alleged U.S. violations of international law, limiting room for allegations of American hypocrisy

The War’s Long Shadow: Rebuilding Ukraine

Finally, despite there being seemingly no end in sight for the already horrific war, there must be some consideration about which countries will pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine once the war does finally end. As argued recently by the RAND Corporation’s William Courtney, Khrystyna Holynska, and Howard J. Shatz, understanding the particulars of the reconstruction challenge is vital. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example, the challenges to effective distribution of aid was a lack of a strategic vision, inconsistent execution, duplication of communications, low donor accountability, weak incentives for donors to cooperate, as well as personal conflicts. In Ukraine, those problems may range from lack of strategic vision from international donors to corruption and waste from the government in Kyiv.

The RAND Corporation commentary notes how former Ukrainian finance minister Natalia Jaresko—who led Puerto Rico’s financial oversight board after Hurricane Maria devastated the territory in 2017—has argued that in Puerto Rico’s recovery, the most important first step was to properly document and assess the damage, which is being accomplished in Ukraine via a Ukrainian government website. Currently, the World Bank estimates that the damage done to Ukraine has reached $60 billion already, and President Zelenskyy has argued that Ukraine will need $7 billion per month to make up for economic losses caused by the invasion. Furthermore, the Centre for Economic Policy Research has—by looking at both historical analogies and data on property damages and Ukraine’s capital stock—concluded that total reconstruction after the war may cost between $210-525 billion

In light of that need, the Biden administration has already requested $8.5 billion in economic aid to Kyiv, along with $3 billion in economic relief. Furthermore, the EU has pledged to establish a trust fund to finance reconstruction in Ukraine and has already distributed $647 million in loans to the country. Meanwhile the IMF has approved $1.4 billion in emergency funding to Ukraine, and canceled $2.2 billion of Ukraine’s prior loan obligations under Ukraine’s pre-existing Stand-By Arrangement

However, no matter what amount of aid is ultimately provided by the international community, such funding will be useless without strong oversight to avoid fraud, waste, and abuse. As argued by CSIS’s Cynthia Cook, the massive damage done by Russian attacks will require careful planning and investment to remedy, so a detailed recovery plan—such as was mandated for Puerto Rico after the 2017 hurricane—would be an excellent first step. 

Furthermore, despite already planning to pay the bulk of Ukraine’s reconstruction costs, European leaders may eventually wish to shift some of the costs to Russia, specifically by seizing the assets of the Central Bank of Russia, sanctioned Russian banks, and the funds of sanctioned Russian oligarchs, as is advocated by the Peterson Institute for International Economics’ Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott, as well as former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson

Above all, international donor governments should be aware that however much they end up providing to Ukraine in terms of reconstruction funds, there will need to be continued economic and rule-of-law reforms in Ukraine if donors do not want to see recovery funds siphoned off by crony capitalist friends of the Zelesnkyy administration. While it should be clear that allegations of the Zelenskyy government’s perfidy and corruption were somewhat exaggerated in the months leading up to the war, there are indications that more could have been done by the Zelesnkyy administration to accomplish long-awaited reforms. Therefore, in a reconstruction environment, where hundreds of billions in foreign funding may pour into Ukraine, oversight and accountability must be the watchword of all donor countries and civil society actors in Ukraine. 

Closing Thoughts 

Ultimately, the war in Ukraine is likely to drag on for at least the foreseeable future. Therefore, while it is unlikely that the U.S. or its European NATO allies decide to intervene in Ukraine via a no-fly zone or troop deployment, they will need to learn to better manage Putin’s escalatory tactics as the war continues to drag on. Furthermore, Western defense establishments need to use the shock of the war in Ukraine to transform their planning and readiness processes, as the war has demonstrated how unprepared Western states were to respond militarily to aggressive actions by a peer-competitor. Finally, the international community must be ready to rebuild Ukraine once the war is over, working with and through the Ukrainian government to complete needed economic and judicial reforms in order to effectively distribute reconstruction funds. 

In the end, the invasion of Ukraine is a senseless act of aggression by Russian leadership which has seemingly backfired, as its forces have been unable to achieve the swift victory envisioned by Moscow. However, that does not mean that the operation is ultimately doomed to failure. To avoid defeat in Ukraine, and to keep the crisis from spiraling out of control, U.S. and European leaders will need to understand where and for what reasons Russia might escalate its attacks in Ukraine; be ready to better assess future threats from authoritarian states like Russia and China; work to rebuild the liberal international order at multilateral bodies such as the United Nations; and carefully work to rebuild Ukraine after the destruction caused by Russia.

As Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated in his recent address to the US Congress on March 16, “Today, the Ukrainian people are defending not only Ukraine, we are fighting for the values of Europe and the world, sacrificing our lives in the name of the future. That’s why today the American people are helping not just Ukraine, but Europe and the world to give the planet the life to keep justice in history.” If they are able to accomplish all of the goals mentioned above, Western states might just provide Ukraine with the support it needs to defeat the Russian menace and secure a more peaceful future for its citizens.

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Myanmar, Ethnic Armed Organizations, and China: A Deadly Cocktail for Burmese Civilians

April 22, 2022

On April 18, the acting president of Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), Duwa Lashi La, called for greater international support for Myanmar’s efforts to create a federal democratic union and to save Burmese lives. In his state of the union address, making a year since the formation of the NUG, Duwa Lashi La said that, “As the world is witnessing the atrocities and crimes committed by the Russian military in Ukraine, we too are witnessing the tyrannical military in Myanmar committing similar atrocities and crimes against the entire population for over a year.” Amidst Duwa Lashi La’s calls for greater international support, he also reported that the NUG’s various people’s defense forces (PDFs) and ethnic armed organization (EAO) allies now control nearly half of the country, stating that the NUG has been working to build trust with all ethnic organizations in the country.

However, despite these calls from Myanmar’s democratic shadow government for greater international support, little has been forthcoming outside of rather ineffectual sanctions, which have targeted seventy or fewer individuals in Myanmar and fewer than thirty corporate entities. Despite these blows to the Burmese Armed Forces (Tatmadaw), sanctions have done little to halt the military junta’s efforts to stomp out further civilian resistance in the country. Even a U.S. State Department determination that the Tatmadaw committed genocide—during its assaults on Myanmar’s Rohingya population between 2016-2017—has done little to change the military’s tactics, as junta forces proceed to burn down villages in areas that resist its rule. 

Further complicating matters is China, which views Myanmar as, “a key component of its geostrategic imperative to access the Bay of Bengal – a critical node in Beijing’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy for the Indian Ocean basin and a springboard for the Chinese to keep South Asian giant India in check,” as part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor project.

Making matters even worse, the military junta has stepped up efforts to train and equip a network of armed civilians, known as Pyusawhti, to go along with military-trained and controlled Border Guard Forces. These groups, while doing little to fundamentally alter the strategic calculus for the NUG or the various ethnic armed organizations battling the Naypyitaw-based junta, end up as targets for reprisal from resistance groups, risking a further escalation of Myanmar’s history of intercommunal violence, and could risk further violence breaking out between militias supporting the junta and those supporting the NUG. 

To better understand the situation on the ground in Myanmar, it is first important to understand the key groups that have a stake in the fighting. While a previous piece in these pages looked at the post-coup situation in terms of the junta and the response of the National Unity Government, it is valuable to have some understanding of the interests of the various other players involved in the conflict, as their interests will go a long way towards determining the final outcome in the country. Furthermore, there is a strong need for the United States and other Western countries to do more in Myanmar than merely sanction junta leaders. If the United States wants to “pivot” to Asia, and work to contain China’s rise, Myanmar is both an excellent place to start, and a country in which it cannot afford to see continued chaos, which will inexorably be exploited by Beijing. However, such a pivot cannot take place without an understanding of Myanmar’s various ethnic armed organizations and militias; its pro-military Pyusawhti militias; and the looming role that China plays, as it decides whether to go all-in on its support of the junta.

Myanmar’s Ethnic Armed Organizations and Militias

To better understand the post-coup landscape in Myanmar, a good place to start is a January 2022 piece from the International Crisis Group, “Myanmar’s Coup Shakes Up Its Ethnic Conflicts,” which examines a range of ethnic armed groups in the country, and analyzes their alignment between the junta and the democratic opposition. While a majority of these groups have yet to truly come down on one side or the other, they all play an important role in the country’s overall conflict, as well as vital roles in their home states. 

Prior to the February 2021 coup by Tatmadaw forces under the command of Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, there existed dozens of ethnic armed organizations in the country, along with, “the presence of a large number of smaller armed groups collectively known as militias,” who were largely under Tatmadaw control. As stated in a 2017 report by The Asia Foundation, “In 2016, The Asia Foundation’s research team identified areas affected by active or latent subnational conflict in at least eleven of Myanmar’s fourteen states and regions,” and that, “each of these contested areas, which include 118 of Myanmar’s 330 townships…hosts one or more ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that challenge the authority of the central government.” 

While a small number of EAOs eventually signed on to 2015’s Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), the agreement only saw two major EAOs—the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS)—sign the agreement, along with six other small groups such as the Chin National Front and some splinter KNU groups. Furthermore, the military seemingly had no interest in living up to the strictures of the peace agreement, as fighting between Tatmadaw forces and EAO fighters began to break out almost immediately after the ceasefire was signed; and the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Commission established under the NCA was rendered largely ineffectual.

Now that the military has once again taken over total control of the country’s political system, the likelihood of a peace agreement between Naypyitaw’s junta and the various EAOs is even dimmer, as even NCA signatories such as the Karen National Union are now on a war footing, and, as noted by the Crisis Group authors, even those groups that would normally be inclined to talk to the Tatmadaw are under intense pressure from civilians in areas they control not to negotiate with the deeply unpopular military regime.

Moving forward, the key question for the leaders of these ethnic armed organizations is to what degree they will work with or against the democratic opposition, and to what extent some might strike deals with the junta in order to achieve greater autonomy for themselves in areas they already exert control over. To that end, the Crisis Group’s report on Myanmar’s various ethnic conflicts and armed organizations first begins with a look at the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), alongside their respective armed wings, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), noting that both groups have taken more strident positions towards the junta, with their armed wings conducting attacks on junta forces throughout Karen, Sagaing, and Kachin States. 

However, the coup also highlighted internal divisions among the groups’ leaders, with KNU chairman Mutu Say Poe and KNLA chief of staff Saw Johnny insisting that disputes with the Tatmadaw be resolved through the NCA framework and others such as former KNU vice chair Naq Zipporah Sein declaring the NCA invalid. Ultimately, the Crisis Group authors argue that heavy fighting between the military and the KNLA in December of 2021 seems to have unified its leadership against the junta, with a contemporaneous KNU statement reading that, “the actions of the military council’s forces, such as entering Lay Kay Kaw and assaulting its inhabitants, are destroying the peace and violating human rights.”

The KNU and KIO have also taken the lead amongst Myanmar’s EAOs in arguing for greater support to the National Unity Government’s efforts to build a more federalized future Myanmar. For example, back in February 2021, in a speech marking the 61st Anniversary of Kachin’s revolution, General N’ban La, chairman of the KIO argued that, “there is no political dialogue in a dictatorship, only threats and killings,” and that, “it is time to support the National Unity Government in any way possible as the revolution is heading to a new level of escalation soon.” In addition, not only was the Karen National Union the first EAO to publicly denounce the coup on February 14, 2021, the KNU has become one of only eight EAOs to formally join in the National Unity Government’s National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), which aims to bring together the country’s various forces that are opposed to further junta rule. Furthermore, not only has the KNU sheltered protestors and former lawmakers from government reprisals, it has seized Tatmadaw military bases, and worked to provide anti-coup protesters with military training so that have the skills to join the NUG-affiliated People’s Defense Forces (PDF) militias.

As noted in an April 7 piece by the Stimson Center’s Shona Loong, the KNU’s anti-coup stance did not come out of nowhere, and was largely influenced by the Tatmadaw’s attempts to expand its control into KNU-held areas, which forced KNU leaders to recognize that the military never intended to allow ethnic groups to work towards more autonomy and a future federal system for Myanmar.

The Crisis Group report on Myanmar’s ethnic conflicts also examines how the coup has affected the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and its military wing, the Karenni Army (KA)—based in Kayah state—as well as the smaller Chin National Front (CNF) and its military wing, the Chin National Army (CNA), which is based in northern Chin state. While both groups had signed bilateral ceasefires with the military in 2012, the aftermath of the coup saw a huge swell of anti-regime protest in Kayah and Chin states, which quickly led the EAOs to strike deals to work with the National Unity Government and its PDFs out of fear that to do otherwise would be to ignore strong popular sentiment. That cooperation was formalized in May of 2021 when the CNF signed a pact with the NUG, agreeing to cooperate on the protection of civilians as well as work together to create a future federal state.

Another major group covered by the Crisis Group report is the Arakan Army (AA)—which has reached an unofficial ceasefire with the Tatmadaw—with the junta content to let the powerful armed group retain control over large parts Rakhine state in exchange for the group refraining from troubling the military elsewhere. The group, which was excluded from NCA talks by Aung San Suu Kyi during her time in office is—along with the United Wa State Army—one of the largest ethnic armed organizations in the country, and its control over the majority of the economically vital Rakhine state means that the military can only allow the AA to conduct state-building activities in the area for so long, as it does not want the group to achieve de facto autonomy, which would be difficult to reverse as it attempts to complete the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone as part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. However, it must be noted that in recent weeks, the group has, along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, stepped up attacks on junta forces in northern Shan state, stating that the groups mighty let the ceasefire with the Tatmadaw fall to the wayside if the junta did not stop killing and arresting protesters. 

Finally, in Shan state, on the border with China, the large, China-influenced United Wa State Army (UWSA) had remained mostly silent about the coup, preferring to instead focus on local battles with the Restoration Council of Shan State and consolidating control over their own territory. Mostly, this is due to the fact that UWSA already enjoys de facto autonomy in areas it controls, meaning that any future deal with the NUG on political autonomy in Shan state would likely result in more restrictions on their ability to control its territory, rather than fewer.

Source: https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/wa-an-early-winner-of-myanmars-post-coup-war/
Source: https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/wa-an-early-winner-of-myanmars-post-coup-war/

However, as it consolidates its gains, attempts to unify its disconnected territories in Shan state, and begins to look to expand its influence towards central Myanmar, the Tatmadaw should feel nervous, as the UWSA has shipped weapons to anti-Tatmadaw resistance groups fighting in Kayah state, further expanding UWSA influence beyond Shan state. The report also points out that other Shan-based groups, like the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) and RCSS, have stayed more neutral, with the two groups refusing to engage with the NUG and ensuring that no PDFs form in their territories. Instead, SSPP and RCSS have decided to continue their fights in southern Shan state, forcibly displacing thousands of villagers in the areas. Moreover, while the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has expressed solidarity with the NUG and staged attacks on the military, it has so far refrained from publicly acknowledging cooperation with the democratic opposition. 

Ultimately, the odds of a united front forming between the NUG and EAOs are long due to distrust between the armed ethnic groups and the in-exile-but-still-NLD-dominated Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) and National Unity Government, which was exacerbated by the NLD’s policies, which antagonized ethnic minorities during Aung San Suu Kyi’s time in power from 2016-2020. Furthermore, as noted by the Crisis Group’s report, while the CRPH has repealed the 2008 constitution—which grants the military excessive power and control over politics in Myanmar—and issued a Federal Democracy Charter, it has not been enough to convince EAOs that the ethnic groups they represent will truly have decision making power in a future, democratic Myanmar, as power still seems to remain in the hands of the Burman-dominated legislature-in-exile (CRPH). Moreover, for smaller armed groups, joining publicly with the NUG would make them targets for the military and cost them the privileges they already enjoy. 

Fundamentally, while groups like the KNU, KIO, KNPP, and CNF have been the primary partners of the National Unity Government, even that cooperation is largely about those groups’ self-interest. Therefore, the future relationship between EAOs and the democratic opposition government will depend on coming to an agreement on the exact contours of a future federal democratic system in Myanmar. Further complicating ethnic armed groups’ calculus is the fact that they know how difficult it will be to dislodge the military from central Myanmar, and, as such, will be likely to want to hedge their bets before tying themselves too strongly to the NUG.

In the meantime, the military has sought to persuade EAOs to refrain from siding with the NUG;  but its efforts at divide-and-rule will be tougher than the last time the military was in charge, as the ceasefires of the 1990s promised an end to over four decades of fighting. Now, however, there is more anger than weariness among Myanmar’s civilian population, making negotiations with the junta harder for EAOs to justify and sell to their backers. While the Tatmadaw will certainly seek ceasefires with select armed groups, in an effort to reduce the number of simultaneous fronts on which it is fighting, it will have a hard time selling to civilians the idea that it is anyone else but ethnic armed groups’ leaders that will be enriched by such ceasefire deals. 

Ultimately, the February 2021 coup was the final nail in the coffin of the, now defunct, peace process between the Naypyitaw government and Myanmar’s various ethnic armed organizations. The most likely scenario, moving forward, appears to be a long stalemate, with the National Unity Government and its affiliated groups holding nearly half the country, and the military holding the rest. All the while, violence will continue to proliferate, making the country’s periphery even more unstable.

Myanmar’s Pro-Military Militias

In addition to powerful ethnic armed organizations, post-coup Myanmar has also had to contend with the formation, by the military, of Pyusawhti militias to combat the NUG’s People’s Defense Forces militias. The Pyusawhti program, which was first introduced by the Burmese government in 1956 was, “a town and village defense scheme intended to assist the Tatmadaw in counter-insurgency activities,” and “involved the coordination of  local militias, under local committees staffed by officials from the police, the Tatmadaw, and the civil administration, and featured a variety of arrangements,” including village defense forces in rural areas and city defenses forces under the command of local police in urban areas. While the military also has a history of using ad hoc irregular forces of recruited thugs to do its dirty work, the coups unpopularity made recruitment of such individuals nearly impossible and led to the formation of pro-regime Pyusawhti militias, in addition to more militarized Border Guard Force units under the command of the army. 

In another fascinating paper from the International Crisis Group, “Resisting the Resistance: Myanmar’s Pro-military Pyusawhti Militias,” the authors outline not only the pre-coup history of pro-military militias in Myanmar, but describe how, after the coup, when the regime found it difficult to recruit non-uniformed assistance, it turned to the loosely organized groups of pro-military civilians that had formed together in ad hoc self-protection networks. These groups formed largely out of pre-existing local networks of individuals predisposed towards the junta’s positions, including Buddhist nationalists, Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) members, and former army veterans. However, it should also be noted that the junta has supplemented their recruitment by forcing the children of military personnel to undergo military training, as well as their wives. While the military’s logic for such conscription is unclear, it could be to compensate for the defections, which have plagued the Tatmadaw since the coup last year. 

While the military claims that it has neither set up nor trained these Pyusawhti militias, it has not prevented resistance groups from targeting and defeating them, as the military has provided its own militia groups with little tangible equipment or tactical support. However, while it has not prevented the military from providing Pyusawhti members with some military training, it has also not enabled the groups to make a fundamental change to the overall tactical situation in the country. While the most horrific violence is being carried out by the military, Pyusawhti groups have carried out their own attacks and assassinations, sparking the creation of local anti-government militias in areas in which Pyusawhti groups operate. All of which simply creates the possibility for spiraling cycles of tit-for-tat violence, which only makes the situation more untenable for the civilian population. 

Beijing’s Backing

Finally, making the situation in Myanmar even more unstable is the support being provided to the junta by China. Doubling down on its commitment to the junta, earlier this month, China announced that, “no matter how the situation changes, China will support Myanmar in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and in exploring a development path suited to its national conditions.” If that sounds like China’s boilerplate language about allowing an autocracy to be left to its own devices, that is because it is. Furthermore, while couched in high-minded language about Burmese sovereignty, China’s interests in Myanmar are, as always, all about China.

As expertly outlined in yet another Crisis Group report from before the coup, “Commerce and Conflict: Navigating Myanmar’s China Relationship,” while China has long been Myanmar’s most important trade and investment partner, as well as its most powerful benefactor, the coup throws that relationship into chaos, as continued investment in Myanmar would seem to violate China’s own foreign investment guidance on not investing in war zones. 

Source: https://newlinesinstitute.org/myanmar/myanmar-chinas-strategic-interests-in-the-indian-ocean-basin/
Source: https://newlinesinstitute.org/myanmar/myanmar-chinas-strategic-interests-in-the-indian-ocean-basin/

However, Chinese investment in Myanmar is not just about financial compensation, but geopolitical reward as well. In September 2018, Myanmar and China signed a memorandum of understanding on the establishment of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is slated to become a vital cog in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. The deal envisions a 1,700km high speed rail corridor connecting China’s Yunnan province to Mandalay in Myanmar, and then ultimately to the Kyaukphyu port and Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Rakhine state. The deal not only would create an avenue for landlocked Yunnan’s goods to reach the Indian Ocean, it would also aid China in completing its “String of Pearls” strategy, which entails, “developing a series of naval facilities across the Indian Ocean for use by the Chinese navy in case of conflict to alter the balance of power against India.” With a price tag of around $10 billion, connecting Kyaukphyu port and SEZ would allow China to connect to a network ports it controls or has leverage over in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Pakistan, effectively fencing in India and potentially allowing China to both choke off India’s access to the sea as well as ensure that any future Western cutoff of the Malacca Strait would not be crippling.

While the CMEC deal was originally negotiated between Beijing and Myanmar’s democratically elected government, it has not prevented China from sidling up to the junta as Beijing looks to see the corridor completed. Furthermore, despite the CMEC project being somewhat downscaled due to Burmese fears of a Chinese debt-trap, the junta has decided to move forward with plans for the port and special economic zone in Kyaukphyu, as well as a $2.5 billion power plant near Ayeyarwady region. 

As pointed out by the United States Institute of Peace’s (USIP) Jason Tower, while at first, Beijing reacted to the coup by emphasizing China’s friendly relations with the NLD, and making contact with the CRPH, Chinese decision makers soon began to view the opposition as both unlikely to achieve victory and contrary to its interests. Further noted by USIP’s Jason Tower and Priscilla A. Clapp, the Chinese response to the coup has been influenced by Tatmadaw propaganda, which is, in turn, amplified by Chinese state media. This has created a situation where disinformation has amplified the usual narratives about Western interference, and has led Chinese decision makers to double down on the relationship with the junta. 

As such, China proceeded to lobby Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen to visit Myanmar as part of an effort to link ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus with the junta’s Five Point Road Map as a way to provide the Tatmadaw diplomatic cover, as the military’s plan would allow it to turn over the government of Myanmar to a military proxy party through rigged elections. While such efforts have done little to change the view of ASEAN members, it has not stopped China from increasing support to the junta’s governing State Administrative Council (SAC) or kept Beijing from vocally opposing Western sanctions on the junta. 

Furthermore, in addition to doubling down on support of the junta, Beijing has also increased support for some China-aligned EAOs in Myanmar, even providing COVID-19 assistance to some friendly forces. In sum, China is supporting the very groups damaging stability in Myanmar, making it unlikely that there will be a safe environment for Beijing’s economic projects anytime in the near future. Furthermore, its support of both the deeply unpopular junta and China-aligned ethnic armed groups has led to rising anti-China sentiment amongst Myanmar’s civilian population, further threatening China’s future economic interests in the country. 

Moving forward, China will have to walk a tightrope if it wants to protect its investments in Myanmar—a country with the second-largest single-country Belt and Road Initiative campaign—especially the billions in total investment planned for oil and gas pipelines, rail lines, and the Kyaukphyu port and special economic zone. However, Beijing’s support for the junta cannot be underestimated, as China remains the region’s dominant power, with the kind of economic muscle to eventually pull ASEAN members around to its point of view on Myanmar—especially if the conflict remains an enduring stalemate. Furthermore, as long as the junta feels it has the support of Beijing, it is unlikely to heed calls to truly negotiate with the democratic opposition, which will only prolong the conflict.

Fixing the Problems

Ultimately, it is clear that if the West wishes to improve the situation on the ground for Myanmar’s civilian population, it will need to change up the ineffectual tactics that Western states have used so far. Specifically, the United States and other Western countries need to do more to help Myanmar’s democratic opposition navigate the expanded range of ethnic armed groups in the country, the Pyusawhti militias and Border Guard Forces formed by the military in response to the opposition, and China’s increasing pivot towards aiding the junta. While neighbors such as Thailand and multilateral bodies such as ASEAN will, of course, be vital to a stable future Myanmar, it is unlikely in the near term that either group gets off the fence; thus it will be incumbent on the democratic opposition’s Western partners to increase their support in order to achieve a peaceful, democratically-led Myanmar. 

To that end, in order to assist the NUG’s efforts to become a truly unifying body as well as an effective service provider throughout the country, foreign governments should step up their engagements with the NUG, offering both technical and financial support to strengthen the body’s administrative capacity. A strong, capable NUG will be better positioned to encourage the various EAOs throughout the country to unite under a democratic banner and fight the junta together. However, along with that support, the NUG’s international backers should also work to reinforce the idea of a federal future for Myanmar, with power shared equally between Burman and non-Burman ethnic groups, giving previously underrepresented peoples a stronger voice in their future governance. If the NUG is not able to overcome the EAO’s mistrust, it will neither be able to unite the country nor be able to defeat the junta. 

When it comes to Myanmar’s Pyusawhti militias and junta-supported Border Guard Forces, while such groups have not been a game-changer for the junta, they have committed atrocities throughout the country, including the burning of villages and the massacre of civilians. Therefore, the international community should do more to aid the NUG in documenting these crimes, so that a future democratic judicial system can punish wrongdoers and establish accountability for crimes committed by the junta, which will aid in reconciliation, as was done in Sri Lanka following its long civil war. As part of such an effort, Myanmar’s international partners should continue to support the UN-led Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar which is looking into and documenting crimes committed by regime forces since the coup. What’s more, the international community should encourage the NUG to document crimes committed by EAOs on its side so as to not sweep any crimes under the rug. Only by providing accountability for crimes committed during the period under military rule will Myanmar be able to heal and move forward once the junta is deposed.

Finally, there is the issue of China, and its support of the junta. While China has seemingly doubled down on its rhetorical support of the junta in recent months, its actual strategy has done little to strengthen the Tatmadaw’s hold on the country. Instead, as pointed out by the Center for Advanced China Research’s William Piekos, China’s weak response to the coup supports continued violence by EAOs and anti-coup elements; the military’s hold over a weak central government; and strengthened EAOs in terms of territory, military capacity, and popular support; all of which weakens the Tatmadaw in the long term and encourages further dependence on Beijing. Furthermore, that dependence will only further increase China’s leverage over Myanmar as it seeks to attain progress on its economic goals in the country.

While it is unlikely that the international community will be able to persuade Beijing to back off on its support of the junta, there are a few things that it can do to alter the facts on the ground in a way that might tempt China to back off from its full embrace of Min Aung Hlaing and his forces. As outlined by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Michael Martin, there are a number of ways in which the United States can aid the democratic opposition in Myanmar, which would help counter Chinese support to the junta. To begin, Martin argues that the U.S. should provide both arms and training to some EAOs and NUG-affiliated PDFs in Myanmar, which would help counter Chinese support to both the military and China-aligned EAOs such as the United Wa State Army. Failing that, the U.S. and other Western countries could provide democratically-aligned EAOs and PDFs with non-lethal humanitarian assistance, which is still sorely needed throughout the country. 

By engaging with friendly ethnic armed organizations and the NUG-aligned PDFs, the West would gain some degree of leverage over those groups, in the hopes that Western states would be able to intervene in any future disputes between the NUG and various ethnic groups over what a federal Myanmar looked like. As part of such an effort, Martin further argues, the U.S. and other Western states should step up support for EAOs that provide services to people living in areas under their control—including the state-level Consultative Councils that were formed by the NUCC to coordinate the resistance and provide core governance functions—as these groups are the real providers of stability and governance in their territories. 


Finally, Martin argues that the U.S. should impose more stringent sanctions on Myanmar’s military, passing the House of Representatives BURMA Act of 2021, and applying targeted secondary sanctions on institutions and companies that do business with the junta, as stricter sanctions would more quickly and effectively impede the junta’s ability to arm its troops. 

Ultimately, as Jason Tower of the USIP argues, “as Western states help Ukraine meet an existential threat, it is critical that they not ignore China’s moves in Southeast Asia. As an immediate step, the United States could encourage much higher levels of support from its QUAD partners to bolster democracy as a pillar of regional security. Another measure would be for the United States and its allies to look for more creative ways to assist the full range of opposition actors in Myanmar…Finally, Washington might communicate clearly to China the dangers its strategy presents to regional stability and offer to establish high-level exchanges on the crisis to manage tensions between the two powers as efforts to restore democracy continue.” 

Moreover, countering Beijing’s moves in Myanmar could help alter the balance in a future conflict between the West and China. With China’s “String of Pearls” strategy largely about evading the Malacca dilemma, and ensuring the viability of Chinese supply chains in the event of a future conflict with the West—coupled with China’s A2/AD dominance in the Western Pacific—the West needs to ensure that the Strait of Malacca remains a key chokepoint for the oil trade and a place where Western naval assets could interdict deliveries of oil to China in the event of a future conflict. At the least, it should not be difficult to convince India that it should step up support to Myanmar’s democratic opposition in the hopes that the next democratic government in Naypyitaw might reconsider the Kyaukphyu port, and help India avoid being strangled by China’s “String of Pearls” in a future fight between Beijing and New Delhi. 

Source: https://newlinesinstitute.org/myanmar/myanmar-chinas-strategic-interests-in-the-indian-ocean-basin/
Source: https://newlinesinstitute.org/myanmar/myanmar-chinas-strategic-interests-in-the-indian-ocean-basin/

Furthermore, if the United States ever wants to do more than talk of a “pivot to Asia”, then it needs to take steps to really lead in Asia. Myanmar’s acting president has called on the international community to, “support our efforts to enable the people to defend themselves from atrocities,” stating that, “the people can and will win. Lives will be saved if you provide support.” With China’s support for Myanmar’s junta demonstrating that China is seemingly only interested in its own economic goals, it gives the international community a chance to not only step up as defenders of democracy around the world, but to be leaders in Southeast Asia and demonstrate a viable, democratic alternative to Chinese hegemony in the region.

Continued chaos and instability in Myanmar, which is likely given the current stalemate, is good for no one. It prevents the Tatmadaw from actually ruling, Burmese civilians from living in peace, and China from realizing its economic goals of a functioning, safe, China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. While Western involvement will, by no means, be a silver bullet, Western disengagement will only see the situation in Myanmar worsen, with destabilizing effects for the entire region. Restoring democracy in Myanmar is a vital Western interest, not just because the country would serve as a beacon of democracy in the region, but it would prevent China from increasing its influence in the country and possibly prevent it from completing its “String of Pearls” strategy to diversify its supply lines. Therefore, while it will be difficult for Western countries to alter the status quo in Myanmar, it is clearly in their interest to try.

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Getting Ahead of the Problem: How to Prevent a Future Calamity—and Provide a Better Future for All Nigerians

April 15, 2022

As the country with Africa’s largest population—over 200 million—and possessing Africa’s largest economy with a GDP of $432.3 billion, Nigeria could be on the path to a population age structure that could enable it to experience a demographic dividend—where the country sees an increase in the working-age population relative to dependent children and elders, creating economic growth. However, the country faces numerous problems, from security issues caused by violent extremist groups, to abuses by security forces, banditry, farmer-herder conflicts, and growing separatism.

Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/static/1b9b09777ad75b7b1e70b7cf79ef7a40/NIGERIA_Population_density.jpg
Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/static/1b9b09777ad75b7b1e70b7cf79ef7a40/NIGERIA_Population_density.jpg

In essence, Nigeria is at a critical moment as it enters its sixty-second year of independence, as the country’s relatively high fertility rate and low rate of contraceptive use sees Nigeria looking at a potential 2050 population of over 400 million—surpassing the United States to become the world’s third most populous country. But with a literacy rate in the mid-sixties, poor school attendance rates—which are even worse for girls, particularly those living in the northern regions of the country—and overall flagging economic growth, the country needs to do a whole lot more if it wishes to experience an economic transformation, lifting the country into the world’s upper-middle income group.

To that end, it is useful to take a look at some of the recent reports and commentaries that have been written about Nigeria, to examine both the turmoil that the country is currently experiencing, as well as recommendations for how it can achieve transformational economic growth and create a better, more prosperous future for its citizens. In that vein, one of the more interesting recent reports is, “Nigeria in 2050: Major player in the global economy or poverty capital?” by Kouassi Yeboua, Jakkie Cilliers, and Alize le Roux of Africa’s Institute for Security Studies (ISS), which examines the issues facing the country as well as how the Nigerian government might go about transforming daily life for the more than 80 million Nigerians who live on less than $1.90 per day.

Yeboua, Cilliers, and le Roux begin their report by looking at the successes and failures from Nigeria’s six decades of independence, noting that except for two short periods of civilian rule in 1960-1966 and 1979-1983, the country lived under military rule as it saw at least nine coups by military leaders. The economic effects of the years of military rule were disastrous, as rulers such as General Ibrahim Babangida’s Structural Adjustment Program saw the country embark on a public investment program aimed at expanding social services, which changed the structure of prices and wages. Amid an oil-boom in the late 1970s, this expansion of government led to a shifting in the Nigerian economy, as cheap food imports competed with domestic production and according to a 1994 World Bank report, “in a classic case of the Dutch disease, Nigeria’s resources shifted from the public production of non-oil traded goods (mostly agricultural) to that of non-traded goods (mostly public services). The impact on the agricultural sector—Nigeria’s major source of GDP and export revenues before oil—was especially pronounced.” Furthermore, the ISS authors note that during these years of military regimes, the country was hampered by debt. With a debt stock that grew from $3.4 billion in 1980 to $17.3 billion in 1985 and $32.9 billion in 1990, the government was forced to spend upwards of 45% of its foreign exchange earnings on debt servicing, resulting in a rise in crime and stagnant economic growth. 

When the ensuing economic fallout led to public unrest, it ultimately led to the downfall of the Babangida government and towards a brief period of civilian rule that was soon toppled by General Sani Abacha in November 1993. It was not until Abacha’s death in 1998, and the subsequent decision by his successor, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, to appoint an Independent National Electoral Commission to conduct elections for civilian governance in the country—elections that were eventually won by former military ruler Olusegun Obasanjo, who had returned the country back to a semblance of civilian rule following his time in power from 1976-1979. 

However, despite the return to civilian rule in the 1990s, the country has yet to distance itself from the economic legacy of years of poor military rule, as the country’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio was a staggering 73% in 2021, despite a moderate debt-to-GDP ratio of 35%. Furthermore, the transition to democracy was not always smooth, with Obasanjo’s re-election in 2003 marred by accusations of fraud and voter intimidation and a somewhat irregular transition of power between the deceased President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and his Vice President Goodluck Jonathan in 2010. Finally, current President Muhammadu Buhari’s second term win was also marred by accusations of irregularities by his opponent, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

The ISS report structures its analysis by looking at Nigeria’s development trajectory through the lens of governance and security, demographics, poverty, education, health, infrastructure, and the economy. The authors begin with a look at the country’s governance and security concerns, noting that despite a well-educated elite and the country’s ample natural resources, poor leadership and policy mishaps have left Nigeria unable to live up to its potential. Despite the country’s aforementioned oil resources, it still struggles with high levels of debt, poor infrastructure, and a lack of government capacity. Furthermore, they note that with a tax-to-GDP ratio of just 6%, the country is poorly placed to improve its social service delivery. 

Source: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099730003152232753/pdf/P17630107476630fa09c990da780535511c.pdf
Nigeria Poverty Assessment 2022: A Better Future for All Nigerians

Nigeria’s Governance and Security Issues

Ultimately, while there have been a series of notable anti-corruption achievements in the previous two decades, these efforts have struggled to stop the problem. Importantly, the Abuja-based Centre for Democracy and Development notes that, “political influence over corruption investigations and prosecutions has frequently slowed, derailed or halted processes,” and that, “the normalization of corruption in the security sector has not only impeded anti-corruption measures but has also significantly contributed to the country’s growing insecurity,” as well as, “generated opportunities for political and security elites to siphon funds through dubious arms procurement deals and increased use of security votes.” 

All of this has combined to leave Nigeria 149 out of 180 in Transparency International’s global Corruption Perceptions Index; though it should be noted this actually represents an improvement from being dead last back in 2000. Furthermore, as also noted by the Centre for Democracy and Development, despite Buhari running on an anti-corruption platform and his government’s years-long push for anti-corruption efforts in Nigeria, the country seems to be losing the anti-corruption war and there allegations that not only has Buhari turned a blind-eye towards corruption in his own administration, his government has also increased the use of “security votes” slush funds, a vestige of years of military rule, wherein cash is provided to federal, state, or local government officials to disburse at their discretion with essentially zero oversight. While originally intended for managing unforeseen security needs, the mostly untraceable cash is often instead pocketed by corrupt officials and organizations. These slush funds are particularly troublesome with, in 2018, “federal-level total spending on items identified as security votes increased by 43%…from 2017 and included payments to a university, a museum commission and a dental technology school.” Combined, this led to over $670 million in unaccounted-for cash expenditures every year coming, primarily, out of the federal budget. 

Source: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099730003152232753/pdf/P17630107476630fa09c990da780535511c.pdf#page=95
Source: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099730003152232753/pdf/P17630107476630fa09c990da780535511c.pdf#page=95Source: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099730003152232753/pdf/P17630107476630fa09c990da780535511c.pdf#page=95

In addition to government inefficiency and corruption, Nigeria is wracked by a host of security issues ranging from competition between pastoralist-herder conflicts over land and water resources; violence by criminal and bandit gangs; and an explosion in violence by jihadist groups looking to take advantage of the country’s dysfunction. As noted by the United States Institute of Peace in a February 2022 analysis, authors Matthew Reitman and Terfa Hemen noted that combined, insurgencies in the northern parts of Nigeria, along with intercommunal violence as well as secessionist movements in the south led to at least 9,700 deaths in 2021 alone. Furthermore, Reitman and Hemen note that while Nigeria’s conflict with jihadist groups tends to get the media attention, it is the country’s “hundreds of herder-farmer conflicts [which] have been the single greatest cause of bloodshed in the country since at least 2017.” These conflicts, which are exacerbated due to the country’s population growth, alternating droughts and floods, and the massive influx of small arms into the country, arise due to land conflict between Nigeria’s 250 or more ethnic groups. The conflict between the Muslim Fulani herdsman, who make up around 90% of the country’s cattle farmers, and Nigeria’s agriculturalists, who are mostly Christians of various ethnicities, has witnessed hundreds of thousands of people displaced from there homes, and has seen a conflict over land transform into conflict over identity. Furthermore, a National Livestock Transformation Plan—which aimed to curtail the movement of cattle and quell the herder-farmer conflict—has been hindered by inadequate leadership from the Buhari administration, delays, and funding uncertainty. 

Source: https://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ASB39EN-The-Growing-Complexity-of-Farmer-Herder-Conflict-in-West-and-Central-Africa-update-7-27-21.pdf
Source: https://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ASB39EN-The-Growing-Complexity-of-Farmer-Herder-Conflict-in-West-and-Central-Africa-update-7-27-21.pdf

Another problematic security issue facing the Buhari administration is violence by bandits and criminal gangs looking to get rich through the use of the small arms that are so prevalent throughout the country. For instance, in late March, hundreds of people on a train from Abuja to Kaduna were exposed to a hail of gunfire as bandits attacked the train, killing eight people and wounding another twenty-six, and taking around two dozen people hostage. As noted by the Centre for Democracy and Development in a March 2022 report, “Multiple Nodes, Common Causes: National Stocktake of Contemporary Insecurity and State Responses in Nigeria,” written by Dr. Jack Jackson, Dr. Kinsley Madueke, Janet Ogundairo, James Barnett, and Dr. Sa’eed Husaini, Nigeria’s: 

“northwest is caught up in a tidal wave of insecurity fuelled by so-called armed banditry, inter-communal conflicts, kidnapping, and violent crime with debilitating effects on security. After decades of oil militancy, the south-south is struggling with violent criminal networks and street gangs that engage in oil bunkering, armed robbery, and kidnapping. Amid growing secessionist agitations and the emergence of Amotekun – a regional vigilante force – the southwest is witnessing a major increase in the spread of communal violence and kidnappings. In the southeast, longstanding secessionist agitations have resurfaced, taking a deadly turn with the emergence of the Eastern Security Network (ESN) – the armed front of IPOB  [the Indigenous People of Biafara].”

Finally, Nigeria is also beset by a jihadist insurgency, led by Boko Haram and now the Islamic State – West African Province in the northern part of the country. Specifically, in the country’s northwest, Boko Haram and ISWAP have combined to directly cause over 35,000 deaths, with 350,000 dead due to knock-on effects of the actions. As noted in the Institute for Security Studies’ report, women and girls pay a heavy price in attacks by these groups, as they are often subject to sexual violence and/or kidnapping. Coupled with a growing separatist movement in the south, the government in Abuja faces a difficult path towards reinstituting order in Nigeria. 

Demographics

The ISS report then proceeds to examine the demographic challenges facing Nigeria, noting the fact that the country is not only home to over 250 different ethnic groups, but that it possesses a striking religious disparity, with 53.5% of the country Muslim and 46% Christian. Even more important, however, is the country’s population trajectory, which, as mentioned above, is set to see Nigeria contain over 452 million people by 2050, making it the third most populous country in the world, after China and India. With a fertility rate over five children per woman—despite a decline from well over six in 1990—the country is still growing far faster than its economy has been able to keep up. 

Source: https://www.urbanet.info/urbanization-in-nigeria-infographics/
Source: https://www.urbanet.info/urbanization-in-nigeria-infographics/

Also troubling for Abuja is the country’s rate of urbanization, which at 4.3% per year, will see 66% of the Nigerian population living in cities by 2050, or nearly 300 million people. This has already led to an existing deficit of at least seventeen million homes in Nigeria, and the country will need to build at least 700,000 units annually to cover the expected rise in population. This is despite the fact that, between 1962-1995, the government only built 74,604 housing units, —despite a National Housing Policy that was launched in 1972—which works out to just 2,260 homes built per year. Ultimately, the future is not very bright for Nigeria’s cities, which already see 53.9% of urban dwellers living in slums as of 2018. When coupled with the country’s exploding population growth, poor rates of contraceptive usage, and a youth bulge that threatens to provide the country with more violence and unrest rather than economic opportunity, things appear dire unless dramatic changes are made.

Poverty and Inequality

Another area of concern for Abuja is the country’s poverty levels. While poverty was highest in the period between 1995-2000, peaking at around 66% before taking a downward turn towards the low 40% mark in 2019, it compares poorly to the rest of Africa, which only sits at 22.4%.  Furthermore, despite a projected decrease in the poverty rate in coming years, the country’s strong population growth will see an overall increase in the number of people experiencing poverty, with a projected peak of 120 million people living in poverty in Nigeria sometime around 2038. This will cause Nigeria to miss the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal #1 of pushing extreme poverty under 3% globally.

Source: https://nairametrics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2019-POVERY-AND-INEQUALITY-IN-NIGERIA.pdf#page=9
Source: https://nairametrics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2019-POVERY-AND-INEQUALITY-IN-NIGERIA.pdf#page=9

Furthermore, not all poverty is created equally; in Nigeria, poverty tends to affect those living in rural areas to a much greater degree than those living in urban ones. As noted in a 2019 poverty and inequality report by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics, 52.1% of rural Nigerians live in poverty compared to just 18% of city dwellers. Moreover, as noted by Yeboua, Cilliers, and le Roux, poverty is also geographically differentiated, with more than 87% of the population in the northern states of Sokoto, Taraba, and Jigawa living in extreme poverty compared to just 6% of those living in Delta state and 4.5% of those living in Lagos. 

Further exacerbating the problem for women is Nigeria’s patriarchal society. As noted by the Council on Foreign Relations’ Ebeneezer Obadare in a March 8 post, women in Nigeria are often effectively regarded and treated as second-class citizens. What’s more, as the ISS authors report, women in Nigeria are five times less likely than men to own land, and when coupled with often poor educational opportunities, women are frequently confined to life in low-skilled, low-wage jobs. Ultimately, what it means is that Nigeria’s poorest are most often female, rural, and illiterate, further compounding their misery.

Education 

As mentioned above, while women are especially hindered in their pursuit of an education, Nigeria has difficulties which abound for men as well as for women. The country’s education system—which is based on what is known as the 1-6-3-3-4 formula of one year pre-primary education, six years primary, three years junior secondary, three years senior secondary, and a minimum of four years tertiary education—had been used to great success in Germany, China, and Ghana before its adoption in Nigeria in 1989. However, its implementation has been poor, as corruption, fraud, and waste has seen more than 30% of the population over fifteen still remain illiterate, well above the regional and world average

In total, over ten million Nigerian school children—or about ⅓ of total Nigerian children—are out of school, the highest rate of the world. Furthermore, net attendance at the primary school level is only 70%, creating a bottleneck at the primary enrollment stage, as the number of students completing primary school determines the rate of enrollment at secondary and tertiary levels. Naturally, many of those children who remain out of school are concentrated in Nigeria’s poorer north, which drives divergent outcomes for children based on geography. Furthermore, according to the ISS authors, when disaggregated by gender, the average number of school years completed by men in Nigeria is nine, whereas women complete just seven years of education on average. The low number of completed school years further contributes to a gender inequality that pervades Nigerian economic life. The end result of all of this is a labor force that is often forced to engage in precarious work, which leads to high youth unemployment, a known driver of conflict in fragile countries.

Healthcare

Public health is another disaster for the Nigerian government. As pointed out by USAID, “health indicators in Nigeria are some of the worst in Africa,” and that, “the country has the second largest number of people living with HIV globally and accounts for nine percent of the global HIV burden.” Additionally, Nigeria is experiencing the highest incidences of malaria in the world, with twenty-seven percent of cases and twenty-four percent of worldwide deaths in 2019. This is on top of having to respond to, “large, multiple, and sometimes concurrent outbreaks of Lassa fever, yellow fever, meningitis, monkeypox, measles, and cholera,” as the, “combination of the country’s tropical climate, population density, socioeconomic realities, and high cross-border movement provides a conducive environment for the emergence and reemergence of infectious disease outbreaks.” In addition to an unacceptably high infant mortality rate, Nigerian children still battle acute malnutrition, with 32% of children under the age of five experiencing stunted growth. 

According to the ISS authors, many of these issues can be traced back to a lack of access to health services, as well as a lack of access to community-based health programs. Compounding the problem is a medical brain drain, with an estimated 2,000 doctors leaving the country in recent years to seek better, more remunerative careers abroad. While some improvements have been made in recent years, much more needs to be done to provide Nigeria’s healthcare system with the resources it needs to provide care to citizens, particularly in the country’s rural areas. 

Infrastructure Deficits

The ISS report then moves on to examine the areas in which Nigeria’s infrastructure needs to be improved in order to improve both health and economic outcomes in the country. With an estimated infrastructure deficit of $100 billion per year, or $3 trillion over the next thirty years, Abuja needs to do much more to keep pace with Nigeria’s continued population growth. Yeboua, Cilliers, and le Roux argue that there are four main areas in which Nigeria specifically needs to improve its infrastructure: water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH); energy and electricity access; road and rail networks; and information and communication technology. 

When it comes to WASH, in 2018, the sector was declared to be in a state of emergency, with nearly sixty million Nigerians living without access to basic drinking water. Furthermore, women and girls suffer the burden of this lack of access, forced to carry water over long distances, which has knock-on effects on school attendance and overall personal well-being. In addition, another eighty million Nigerians live without improved sanitation facilities, and 29% of Nigerians still practice open defecation. This low level of access to improved WASH facilities contributes to Nigeria’s high rates of communicable disease as well as instances of malnutrition.

Energy access is another area in which Nigerian infrastructure is lagging behind its peers. According to the World Bank, eighty-five million Nigerians—43% of the population—lack adequate access to the electrical grid, which puts Nigeria at the bottom of the world in terms of energy access. Not only does this impose constraints on businesses, resulting in annual economic losses of $26.2 billion, but Nigeria’s rank of 171 out of 190 countries in the world for getting electrical access massively hinders prospects for foreign investment. 

Furthermore, despite privatizing the electricity sector back in 2013, Nigeria has seen the rate of stranded power—available energy capacity which could not be generated, transmitted, or distributed due to system failures—rise by 263% from 1,031 megawatts in 2013 to 3,742 megawatts by the end of 2020. The poor electricity situation has led Nigeria to become the world’s largest importer of electrical generators, and the country spends three times as much on generator power as it does to the entire country’s electrical grid. Ultimately, USAID estimates that the country needs $10 billion in the next few years and another $900 billion over the next thirty if Nigeria wants to rehabilitate its power infrastructure. 

When it comes to Nigeria’s road and rail networks, the ISS authors note that at 195,000 kilometers of road, Nigeria has the largest road network in West Africa. Furthermore, due to the country’s inadequate rail network, 90% of freight and passenger traffic is forced to move by roads. Furthermore, the authors point out that only about 31% of Nigeria’s road network is paved, compared to 35.4% of African lower middle-income countries. Furthermore, roads are in poor condition, and while the government has invested $1 billion in improving the road networks, much more needs to be done to improve the situation so that people and goods can better flow around the country. 

Finally, in terms of information and communications technology, while many Nigerians experience an erratic energy supply, the country is the largest mobile phone market in Africa. It is through these mobile networks that the large majority of Nigeria’s 42% of internet users access the internet. Furthermore, Nigeria is a huge e-commerce market with an estimated e-commerce spend of $12 billion in 2018. With that figure expected to rise to $75 billion by 2025, the Nigerian government has announced a National Broadband Plan in order to deliver download speeds of 25Mbps in urban areas and 10Mbps in rural areas by 2025, raising the country’s overall internet penetration from 42% to 70% by that time.

Economy

The ISS authors close their analysis of Nigeria’s major issues by looking at the poor state of Nigeria’s economy, which is highly vulnerable to downturns due to its overreliance on the oil sector. Before oil became the economic mainstay of Nigeria, the country was mainly reliant on agriculture, with the sector responsible for an average of 57% of Nigerian GDP in the 1960s. However, in recent years, that figure has declined to just 23.5% of GDP and agricultural exports are now only responsible for 5.1% of Nigeria’s export earnings. Furthermore, since the early 2000s, GDP growth in Nigeria has fallen precipitously, from a high of 15.3% in 2002 to -1.7% in a COVID-impacted 2020. With oil revenues dipping as much as 80%, the country has a desperate need for diversification.

Source :https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099730003152232753/pdf/P17630107476630fa09c990da780535511c.pdf#page=12
Source :https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099730003152232753/pdf/P17630107476630fa09c990da780535511c.pdf#page=12

Moreover, with an estimated 93% of jobs in the country taking place in the informal sector, the majority of Nigerian workers work in, “vulnerable working conditions, with little to no access to occupational safety and health or social protection and are dependent on a daily income to feed their families.” The ISS authors argue further that, due to weak tax administration, rampant corruption, and high levels of noncompliance, Nigeria has one of the world’s lowest tax revenue-to-GDP ratios, at just 6% in 2019. Nigeria also has a GDP per capita of just over $2,000 which places it near the bottom of African countries, and in the bottom third worldwide. 

The authors contrast Nigeria’s poor situation with that of Malaysia, another former British subject that became independent in the middle part of the twentieth century. They note that despite similar economic situations at independence, Malaysia now has a GDP per capita almost five times greater than that of Nigeria, and Malaysia has successfully managed to diversify its economy, with the share of petroleum exports declining from 95%-20% of the Malaysian economy while palm oil exports rose from 0% to 99% in 1994. All of which demonstrates the fact that Nigeria was not destined to be in the state it is today. 

Another area in which Nigeria is experiencing economic difficulties is in agriculture, specifically due to the impact of climate change. As noted by Celestine Azubuike Afiukwa, David Okeh Igwe, and Benjamin Ewa Ubi in their paper, “Biotechnology Role in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation for Sustainable Crop Production”, “agriculture in Nigeria is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change with increasing drought, flooding, and incidence of pests and disease as the major factors induced or exacerbated by climate change scenarios.” 

Furthermore, despite steady growth in the value of Nigerian agriculture exports from 2016-2018, the ratio of agriculture exports to total exports remained below 2% during that period, with oil accounting for 80% of total exports. What’s more, according to the Brookings Institution’s Amara Nwankpa, “extreme weather patterns—fiercer, longer dry seasons and shorter, more intense rainy seasons—are exacerbating challenges confronting local communities. Extensive cultivation and overgrazing have been compounded by desertification, rendering large swaths of land in northern Nigeria unproductive,” and, “depleting environmental resources in every part of the country pose a serious food security challenge.” Nwankpa further notes that the 2021 Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index ranks Nigeria as the 6th least ready country in the world to adapt to climate change. Ultimately, as the ISS authors point out, a persistent lack of funding holds back the development of the sector, and it would need to be remedied if the country is to improve its agricultural productivity. 

The ISS authors then discuss the impact of international trade on Nigeria’s economy, noting that the country still imports refined petroleum products despite being the continent’s largest oil producer. While the country has approved $1.5 billion in funding to revamp the Port Harcourt oil refinery to increase its daily capacity, more will need to be done to address the country’s widening trade deficit. Furthermore, more work is needed to reform the country’s customs process, which currently hinders links to Nigeria’s partners and other international markets. 

The authors then close their examination of Nigeria’s problems with a look at foreign direct investment and overseas remittances. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s 2020 World Investment report, FDI to Nigeria was only $3.3 billion in 2019, which represented a 50% decrease over 2018 due to slowdowns in oil and gas investment. However, despite that downward trend continuing in 2020, Nigeria remained one of the largest overall recipients of foreign direct investment in Africa, with major investors including the US, China, France, the UK, and the Netherlands. While attracting more FDI would help Nigeria in its efforts to diversify the economy away from oil, the aforementioned infrastructure and corruption problems limit this type of foreign investment. As pointed out by the authors, the country needs to do more to improve its ranking (currently 131st out of 145 countries) on the global Ease of Doing Business index if it wants to improve the overall investment climate in Nigeria.

Finally, in terms of remittances, Nigeria is the largest destination in sub-Saharan Africa, receiving around $17.2 billion in 2020, which actually represented a decrease compared to pre-pandemic levels. Despite this fact, the region remains one of the most expensive in the world to send remittances to, and addressing that challenge is one of the key aims of the Nigerian Central Bank with the creation of the eNaira central bank digital currency. The goal of the eNaira is to, “[make] it easier for the Nigerian diaspora to remit funds to Nigeria by obtaining eNaira from international money transfer operators and transferring them to recipients in Nigeria by wallet-to-wallet transfers free of charge,” such that, “exchange rate rate reforms, including a unified market-clearing rate, that reduce the gap between official and parallel market exchange rates would enhance the incentives for using eNaira wallets to send remittances.”

Pathways to a Prosperous Nigeria

The ISS authors conclude by noting that without further changes, Nigeria will be unable to fulfill its potential and will likely remain one of the world’s poverty capitals. By looking at the relative impact that successful policy initiatives could have on Nigeria’s future, the authors argue that there are a number of ways that Nigerian decision makers might go about constructing a brighter future for the country. 

As noted above, in terms of governance and security, Nigeria needs to reduce levels of corruption as well as improve governance and service delivery. As put forth by Obasesam Okoi and MaryAnne Iwara in a 2021 piece for the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, “at the core of Nigeria’s systemic failure is the crisis of governance, which manifests in the declining capacity of the state to cope with a range of internal political and social upheavals. There is an expectation for political leaders to recognize systemic risks such as terrorist attacks, herder-farmer conflict, and police brutality and put in place the necessary infrastructure to gather relevant data for problem solving. But the insufficiency of political savvy required to navigate the challenges that Nigeria faces has unleashed unrest across the nation and exacerbated existing tensions.” 

What is needed to improve the government’s capacity are efforts to enhance tax revenue mobilization, increasing taxes on skilled workers so that wealthy households pay a fair share of taxes. In the authors’ simulated scenario—wherein the Abuja government pushes to improve democracy, empower women, and increase funding to social programs to better support the countries’ most vulnerable populations—annual government revenue increases by nearly $167 billion, permitting greater spending on health, education, and infrastructure; all of which leads to greater economic growth and a further reduction in poverty throughout the country.

In terms of demographics, the primary need is to increase the uptake of contraceptive use and, consequently, decrease the overall rate of female fertility, allowing Nigeria to experience a demographic dividend. As part of the push for greater contraceptive use, the government will need to improve the accessibility and affordability of healthcare, especially in rural areas. The knock-on effect of such improved health care access, besides reducing overall fertility rates, would see Nigeria further addressing its rates of HIV prevalence as well as many of the childhood nutrition issues plaguing the country’s youth. In such a scenario, where Nigeria gets its contraceptive use rate up to 62% by 2050, the fertility rate declines from 5.4 children per woman to just 2.4, its GDP increases by about $307 billion overall. In such a possible future scenario, there would be over thirty million fewer Nigerians living in extreme poverty than are currently projected to be in 2050. 

In terms of agriculture, the authors argue that if the government wants to see a marked improvement by 2050, more work is needed to modernize the sector. While the National Livestock Transformation Plan was a good first start, more needs to be done to address the program’s poor implementation, specifically the inadequate political leadership that hinders the project. More needs to be done to develop Nigeria’s agricultural value chains, specifically in dairy and cocoa. With efforts put in place to improve Nigeria’s food storage and land tenure systems, Nigeria could produce around 182 million metric tons more food compared to the current forecast, which would alleviate the number of children suffering from malnutrition by 2.3% relative to the current trajectory.

When it comes to improving Nigeria’s weak infrastructure base, the authors propose that the government increase the country’s electricity generation capacity through greater use of renewable energy sources, and to work to reduce transmission losses in order to increase the share of the population with access to electricity in rural as well as urban areas. Another way to improve Nigeria’s future infrastructure situation is to improve access to road transport infrastructure, with government efforts to increase the total number of miles of road in Nigeria, especially in the more poorly developed north. Such a scenario would see reduced costs for the transport of goods, as well as increased productivity for farmers and manufacturers, as the ease of getting goods to market is improved. Accompanying these efforts, the government also needs to follow through with ongoing attempts to increase broadband coverage throughout the country. Finally, the ISS authors note that greater efforts to improve sanitation facilities throughout the country would see a marked decrease in morbidity and mortality rates among children under five. Combined, all of these improvements to Nigeria’s infrastructure could see an economic value-add of $342.6 billion by 2050, with the average Nigerian gaining $844 per year in income in such an optimistic scenario. 

Finally, when discussing potential improvements to Nigeria’s economy, and efforts to improve export diversification, the authors argue that more needs to be done to support Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, as sustained growth cannot be achieved without the jobs such industry would create. Further, as argued elsewhere, efforts to expand and support the manufacturing sector, especially in the north, must be accompanied by efforts to improve the service industry, particularly in the south, where financial technology companies are seeing real growth opportunities. As part of such efforts, the ISS authors propose interventions to improve business regulation, promoting small- and mid-sized-enterprises (SMEs) efforts to become industrial job-creators. By improving the environment for SMEs, Nigeria could also continue to retain its place as one of the most desirable spots in Africa for FDI. Combined with efforts to improve the ease with which the Nigerian diaspora sends remittances back home, as well as efforts to boost government spending on research and development, the authors argue that Nigeria could see manufacturing exports grow from just 2% of GDP today to 21.2% by 2050, growing the Nigerian economy by $1.4 trillion and increasing income for average Nigerians by $3,551 per year. 

Super Nigeria and Closing Thoughts

Yeboua, Cilliers, and le Roux then close their report by offering up a scenario wherein Nigeria’s leaders meet all of the aforementioned goals, improving governance, demographics, healthcare, infrastructure, and the economy. In such a scenario, a “Super Nigeria” could emerge, as total fertility rates decline to replacement level of 2.1 by 2047, leading to a population 52 million smaller than currently projected, and increasing GDP by $3.5 trillion by 2050, while nearly eradicating extreme poverty and decreasing malnourishment by more than thirteen times. 

While certainly a scenario that Nigerians, as well as the rest of the world, wishes to see, such an outcome is highly unlikely unless there is dramatic change at the top of the Nigerian government. As Muhammadu Buhari himself has said, “if Nigeria does not kill corruption, corruption will sooner or later kill Nigeria.” 

While events in Nigeria that make U.S. news reports tend to be things such as attacks by bandits or jihadist organizations, even before the rise of such groups, fishing and agro-pastroal economies contended with violence and poor state presence, all of which has enabled groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP to establish themselves in the Lake Chad Basin and to “appropriate economic activities [there] for its benefit.” Furthermore, the state’s responses to these violent groups have compounded pre-existing issues, with women in particular at risk of exploitation and abuse by both state and non-state actors.  

Therefore, more needs to be done to address the country’s underlying sources of insecurity, with authorities needing to address land use issues plaguing farmers and herders, as well as abuses by security forces. While some of this may require joint, regional efforts by the African Union, in conjunction with other AU member states, more also needs to come from Abuja to address the country’s intercommunal conflicts, to reduce the number of small arms in the country, and to improve levels of trust between security forces and local communities. 

Overall, it must be understood that Nigeria’s problems—while exacerbated by intercommunal and jihadist violence—do not begin and end with such violence. Instead, Nigeria’s problems, as with many lower middle-income African countries, stems from underlying socio-economic issues and poor leadership at the federal level. If more were done to address the rampant corruption that pervades the country, as well as the country’s seemingly unaccountable security forces, there would be a much better chance for economic policy changes—such as an improved land registration system—to make a real difference in average Nigerians’ lives. However, unless that corruption and impunity is addressed, there is nothing that can be done to improve the country’s long-term economic outlook, as those are the two main sources of unrest in the country, whether from jihadist extremists or poverty-stricken Nigerians upset with poor job, health, and overall life prospects.


In the end, until corruption and impunity from the governing class is eliminated, there will not be real, long-term stability in Nigeria; and until there is long-term stability, there can be no robust economic growth; and without robust economic growth, one ends up with even greater levels of instability, further continuing the ever-worsening cycle. A securitized response to Nigeria’s violence is not the answer. What is instead required is a series of policy interventions—overseen by the federal government—that address the aforementioned causes of instability in the country. Such reforms will require political courage and selflessness, and quite likely a little bit of luck. As such, the stakes could not be higher for next year’s elections in Nigeria.

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The UK’s Integrated Review at One: Not Fit for Purpose

April 8, 2022

Just over a year ago, in late March 2021, the United Kingdom published its long-awaited national security strategy document, “Global Britain in a competitive age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.” While the Integrated Review attempted to provide a comprehensive reimagining of UK policy around the globe—paying attention to the impact that trade and new technology will have on Britain’s foreign relations and outlining how Britain can contribute to the liberal, rules-based international order—the events of the past year have demonstrated that more needs to rectify the Review’s ambitions with its proposed strategies. 

While the document correctly diagnosed that the world is, in fact, shifting towards a more multipolar order, with rapid technological change, a deteriorating climate, and greater international competition between great powers all changing the world, the war in Ukraine demonstrates that some of the Integrated Review’s strategic goals—such as an emphasis on presence in the Indo-Pacific—do not match the UK’s present threats. As Baroness Anelay of St. John’s, Chair of the House of Lords International Relations & Defence Select Committee said in a piece for Chatham House back in April of 2021, the Integrated Review both overpromises and underdelivers and, “fails to acknowledge that Britain must cut its cloak according to its cloth, focus on its principal threats and challenges, and work closely with its traditional allies.”

In that light, there have been, in recent weeks, a number of interesting papers and commentaries from various experts on the state of the Integrated Review after its first year in existence, all of which provide a useful jumping-off point to discuss the state of the Integrated Review more generally. 

Global Britain in a Divided World – Successes and Failures

To begin, last month, Chatham House published, “Global Britain in a divided world: Testing the ambitions of the Integrated Review,” by Robin Niblett, which argues that, while the UK has taken some real steps towards meeting the Integrated Review’s four main international priorities—supporting a liberal international order, supporting international security, supporting global resilience, and promoting the British economic agenda—the government’s overall record is mixed, with successes in supporting a secure, international order, but a failure to achieve results on global resilience issues, such as climate change and vaccine distribution

To better understand these successes and failures, it is important to look at the report in more depth, to both see where the UK went right, and to determine where it needs to make changes going forward. Niblett thus begins his review of the UK’s achievements, looking first at the government’s efforts to support the liberal international order. Here, he notes a number of actions that were taken under the auspices of the UK’s G7 presidency, particularly the results of 2021 G7 Leaders’ Summit in Cornwall, which marked a return to regular cooperation between liberal democracies and the U.S. after a tumultuous Trump presidency. Key elements of success that Niblett points to are the formation of the Build Back Better World initiative to rival China’s Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the UK’s support for the Biden administration’s 2021 Summit for Democracy. 

Another area in which the UK has shown its support for the rules-based, liberal international order is the UK’s creation of a new visa for Hong Kong residents that allow them the opportunity to escape the former British colony, necessitated by China’s crackdown on democracy and civil liberties. However, it must be noted that, in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, UK government efforts to support the liberal democratic order by way of sanctions have been hindered by the government’s inability or unwillingness to target the UK-based assets of Russian oligarchs who undermine democracy and provide key support to the Putin regime.

The second major UK international priority from the Integrated Review—supporting international security—has also seen the UK live up to many of the Integrated Review’s objectives, with the defense budget rising by £16.5 billion over four years, beginning in November 2020. Furthermore, sources say that due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, that budget could be increased even further. Other areas in which the UK can be seen to have pursued the goals of supporting international security are its efforts to return to Germany hundreds of tanks and armored fighting vehicles so that UK forces can more quickly respond to a crisis on the Continent. In conjunction with that move, the UK also agreed to greater bilateral cooperation with Germany and the creation of an annual strategic dialogue at the Foreign Minister level. More recently, the UK has also provided Ukraine with thousands of anti-tank and anti-air missiles, along with plans to send even more equipment in the coming months. 

The most prominent display of the UK’s commitment to the international security order was its deployment of a Carrier Strike Group to the Indo-Pacific to reassure allies and showcase the UK’s ability to act as a hub for a multinational deployment of NATO allies to the region. However, it must be noted that this was not the only major step the UK took towards securing the Indo-Pacific region—it announced the formation of the AUKUS defense and security partnership between the UK, United States, and Australia in September of 2021, much to the consternation of France. 

A final area of success for the UK was in promoting the UK’s economic interests worldwide. In fact, one could argue that it is in this area that the UK has been not only most successful, but in which it has the strongest interest. Here, Niblett notes that the UK’s major objectives are to become a regulatory innovator—creating a permissive ecosystem to allow for the expansion of the financial technology, biotech, and digital technology fields—as well as to pursue a new global trade agenda. For instance, in terms of financial technology (fintech) innovation, Niblett points to the UK’s Bank of England and the Treasury creation of a taskforce to explore the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency. He also points to the UK’s new national AI strategy, launched in September 2021, as an effort to improve the regulatory environment for digital technology in the UK.

As far as pursuing the UK’s trade agenda, Niblett notes that Whitehall has successfully finalized agreements with all of the countries with which it previously enjoyed trade deals as an EU member. Moreover, the UK has also struck new deals with Japan and Australia, two partners in what the government has declared as an area of vital British interest. Finally, the UK has also begun negotiations to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a free trade agreement signed between Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Malaysia, Peru, and Vietnam in 2018. However, Niblett does note that this pursuit of trade deals has resulted in the setting aside of Integrated Review commitments to support democratic governance around the world which respects human rights—specifically pointing to the UK’s pursuit of increased trade and investment ties with Gulf Arab countries with spotty human rights records.

Failures to Promote Global Resilience

However, as mentioned above, the UK’s efforts towards meeting the goals of the Integrated Review were not always uniformly successful. Specifically, the Integrated Review’s goal of supporting global resilience saw the UK achieve a rather mixed record, with some success at the COP26 Climate Change Conference, which saw countries agree to the Paris Rulebook principles and saw the signing of the Glasgow Climate Pact. However, when it comes to other areas, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or girls’ education, the UK was less robust in its efforts to support global resilience. For instance, though the UK secured a commitment from governments at the June 2021 G7 meeting to donate 1 billion vaccines to low- and middle-income countries over the following year, Amnesty International notes that, “G7 nations, including the European Union, have bought up over half the world’s vaccine supply, despite representing just 13% of the world’s population, and have enough doses on order to vaccinate their populations almost three times over,” and that, “to date, half the world’s vaccine doses have been administered in these countries, while 130 countries have [as of February 2021] yet to administer a single shot.” 

More specific to the UK, while it has secured enough doses to vaccinate its population four times over, it has not endorsed the WHO’s Covid-Technology access pool (C-TAP) and opposes a temporary patent waiver that would transfer vitally needed vaccine technology to poorer countries. Furthermore, when it comes to the Integrated Review’s goals on girls’ education, and the aim to have at least twelve years of quality education and getting forty million more girls in developing countries into schools by 2025, the UK has fallen short as well. By cutting official development assistance by nearly 30%—from 0.7% of UK gross national income to just 0.5% in 2021—it not only makes it difficult to achieve pre-existing development goals, it makes the ambitious goals of the Integrated Review nearly impossible to accomplish. 

Integrated Review – Fit for Purpose at Year One? 

Another excellent piece of commentary on the Integrated Review that is worth examining is, “The UK’s Integrated Review at One Year – Fit for Purpose?” by The Royal United Services Institute’s (RUSI) Paul O’Neill. As with the Chatham House report, O’Neill largely seems to agree with the goals set forth in the Integrated Review, noting that the Review’s mercantilist tone, tilt towards the Indo-Pacific, and the desire to shape a new, resilient, international order are all salutary goals.  However, O’Neill argues that not only has the UK failed to match its ambitions with the relevant strategies to meet them, but that a failure to conduct an honest assessment of UK capabilities has resulted in a strategy which doesn’t quite match the UK’s strengths with its overall security and foreign policy goals.

For instance, while O’Neill notes that the Integrated Review—and its associated Defence Command Paper—correctly identifies Russia as the biggest threat to UK interests in the Euro-Atlantic region, the UK has decreased the size of the British Army, with a plan to cut British Army personnel to just 72,500 by 2025. Furthermore, these cuts are accompanied by plans for the RAF and Royal Navy to pursue more persistent Indo-Pacific engagement, conducting freedom of navigation missions in the region in pursuit of a somewhat ephemeral “Global Britain” concept. Furthermore, while the government has increased the Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) funding by £16.5 billion over the coming years, the UK’s modernization strategy seems far too reliant on unproven new technology, in what may be more of an attempt at a military-industrial jobs program than a realistic attempt to provide British Armed Forces with effective new equipment within a reasonable timeframe. 

The other major issue that O’Neill discusses is the fact that the UK should not be preoccupied with the percentage of GDP it spends on defense, or the specific technology it wants to target in its modernization efforts. Instead, while the Integrated Review argues that the UK is, “the leading European Ally within NATO,” increased defense spending from countries like Germany and Poland threaten to render the UK as merely just one of many NATO contributors. Instead, O’Neill argues that instead of a UK fixation on the percent of GDP it spends on defense, it should rather pursue a threat-based approach, which acknowledges Russia as the dominant regional threat, and NATO as the indispensable umbrella body coordinating Euro-Atlantic defense efforts. A true focus on Russia would require the UK to focus less on the Indo-Pacific and more on Europe—where the Russian threat looms large. It would also require Whitehall to reconsider plans to move equipment to the Middle East, instead possibly considering training its troops closer to a potential conflict zone in Europe.

The essential problem with a split in the UK’s focus is that since 2014—and even more so since the war in Ukraine began in February—Russia has become more of a threat to European interests than perhaps anyone in Europe would have liked or hoped at the end of the Cold War. O’Neill notes that while it is possible that Russia emerges strategically weaker from its invasion, UK planners should not let the wish be the father of the thought, and should therefore assume that Russia will emerge as a credible threat to European security for the foreseeable future. Due to the ongoing Russian threat—and the fact that the UK cannot hope to face Russia alone—the UK must pursue its military modernization efforts with the ultimate goal of becoming a vital cog in the NATO defense of Europe. By doing so, the UK can demonstrate its value as an ally, providing command and control as a framework nation, through efforts like the Joint Expeditionary Force’s (JEF) deployable Standing Joint Force Headquarters based in Northwood, England. 

However, O’Neill is clear that any effort to address the Integrated Review’s strategic weaknesses must first begin with an honest capability assessment of what the UK has to offer today, and an acknowledgement that new, cutting edge, technology will not be some kind of magical savior. Instead, the real meat of what the UK needs to modernize are its stockpiles and logistical enablers, which will enable its armed forces to meet other challenges, like the war currently raging in Ukraine. 

The Russo-Ukrainian War and the Integrated Review

Another recent piece focusing on the shortcomings of the Integrated Review is, “The Russo-Ukrainian War and the UK Integrated Review,” by the London School of Economics IDEAS foreign policy think tank’s Paul Cornish. Cornish argues that the essential problem with the Integrated Review is that it was never a coherent national strategy document, in that it presumed a European stability that would allow the UK to pursue its “Global Britain” strategy in the Indo-Pacific, unencumbered by worries of defending the continent. 

However, events in Ukraine have shown the folly of such a worldview, and have demonstrated the imprudence of a costly naval buildup at the expense of British land forces. Cornish argues that, “what the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022 has shown is that Europe is by no means as stable as the authors of the Integrated Review might have hoped. The UK thus finds itself in the unenviable position of being committed to not one, but two strategically risky regions of the world. And with a small and top-heavy Royal Navy, a shrinking Royal Air Force and a British Army reducing to 72,500 by 2025, with not much heavy armor and too little battlefield mobility, the UK is militarily under-equipped to manage either, let alone both.”

In light of that inability to manage potential conflicts in its own backyard, Cornish argues that the Integrated Review should be scrapped in favor of a more realistic strategy, ditching an Indo-Pacific “tilt” and concentrating on the UK’s responsibilities to collective European defense—primarily through NATO. As part of that, Cornish argues that the UK should forget ambitious shipbuilding goals and instead focus on beefing up the RAF and British Army, providing the UK with the ability to make real contributions to conventional deterrence on the ground.

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/974661/CP411_-Defence_Command_Plan.pdf#page=55
Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/974661/CP411_-Defence_Command_Plan.pdf#page=55

Cornish closes his critique of the Integrated Review by saying that the most cutting criticism that can be made of the document is that it was not the outcome of careful strategic judgment but rather the product of a Prime Minister in search of a post-Brexit “brand” on which to hang his foreign policy hat, coupled with two large warships (HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales), which were looking for an appropriate use. While not quite arguing for a return of the days of the British Army of the Rhine—with 50,000+ British soldiers stationed in Central or Eastern Europe—he does argue for a strategy where the UK’s force modernization and optimization goals at least somewhat match the strategic landscape, rather than having it based on a catchy political strategy and a desire to use already-purchased platforms. 

Testing the Ambitions of the Integrated Review – Next Steps

Just as with Cornish’s report, Chatham House’s Robin Niblett similarly has suggestions for how the UK should approach its national security strategy in the coming years. To begin with, he argues that events in the past few years—especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine—have demonstrated not only the world’s growing multipolarity, but has also disrupted the UK’s place in the global security order. Even with a more Europe- and UK-friendly Biden administration in Washington, the UK has found that political polarization in the United States will mean that the U.S. will not only struggle playing a consistent leadership role in Europe, but that it will lean on the EU and NATO as much or more than it presently does the UK. Therefore, the UK will need to make sure it is able to contribute to addressing European security problems if it wants to remain a major influence on both European and global affairs. 

To achieve that goal, Niblett offers four ways in which the UK can go about being a more essential partner to the U.S. as well as its European neighbors. To begin, he argues that the UK will need to go about rebuilding relations with the EU after the tumult of Brexit. As part of that, UK leaders will need to abandon the idea that they can conduct all foreign and security policy discussions through the E3 format.  Part of the issue moving forward is that France and Germany have been highly displeased with UK threats to invoke Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, suspending customs checks on goods moving into Northern Ireland. Therefore, the UK should instead pursue more broad cooperation on foreign and security policy, conducting less business on a bilateral basis. Encouragingly, the work presently being done on Ukraine presents an ideal chance for the EU and UK to arrive at some more regular form of coordination and to repair the relationship

Secondly, Niblett argues that the UK needs to reinforce the relationship with its G7 partners, as there is a risk that Britain could be squeezed out by a closer US-EU relationship in the coming years, especially as the EU becomes a more geopolitical force in its own neighborhood and around the world. Niblett argues that to avoid such a fate, the UK needs to present itself as a more attractive partner—either through efforts to join the US/EU Trade and Technology Council or by meeting its G7 commitments on supporting global resilience—further demonstrating the UK’s utility as a global actor. 

Niblett argues that a third way for the UK to demonstrate its global usefulness is to rethink the purpose of UK trade policy so that it deepens relations with G7 partners. He argues that the best way of doing so would be to continue negotiations on joining the CPTPP, signaling, “the UK’s commitment to supporting an open, rules-based approach to economic relations in the Indo-pacific, despite its distance from the UK market.” Similarly, Niblett argues that the UK should continue efforts to become a regulatory innovator, driving international collaboration in areas where it has expertise such as fintech. In sum, he argues that the strategic and security landscape of Europe has been inexorably changed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and that its knock-on effects on UK economic policy will be difficult to manage until the UK comes together with its its partners and Allies to reduce the risk of unintended consequences from Western sanctions. 

Finally, Niblett’s report argues that the UK needs to become a more reliable global partner, better matching its rhetoric with its actions around the globe. After a chaotic Brexit, which saw the UK’s international reputation tarnished, the United Kingdom needs to do more to regain its place as one of the world’s foremost champions of liberal democratic governance. Niblett argues that even after Brexit, efforts by the Johnson government to limit voting rights in the UK, to redesign boards of cultural institutions like the BBC, and to shield Russian oligarch’s money from scrutiny have all done additional damage to the UK’s global reputation. Coupled with the UK’s continuing harsh stance on immigration and its unwillingness to accept the decisions of international tribunals such as the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, it paints the picture around the world of a Britain that shirks, rather than embraces, its responsibilities to the global community. To become a better partner, the Chatham House report argues, the UK needs to do more to meet its climate change goals to step up efforts towards equitable global vaccine distribution, and to reform global rules of financial transparency, eliminating loopholes allowing the recipients of illicit wealth to launder their money and reputations in London. Only then will Europeans, and the wider world, begin to see the UK once more as a reliable partner in their attempts to buttress the liberal democratic global order. 

The Integrated Review and the British Army

While Niblett, O’Neill, and Cornish all offer useful suggestions that UK policymakers should certainly pursue, more still needs to be done if the UK is to retain its ability to be a credible contributor to European and transatlantic security. More specifically, the UK needs to do more to reconcile the conception of the future British Army that exists in the Integrated Review with what has been proposed in the Defence Command Paper and has been pursued by the Johnson government so far. To that end, it is useful to examine a recent report by the Royal United Services Institute’s Jack Watling, “The Utility of Land Power to the British State,” which examines the contributions that the British Armed Forces must make to satisfying the UK’s security goals around the world. While the entire report covers a range of issues affecting the future of the British Army, the relevant issue for the present discussion is the ways in which the British Army’s capabilities meet or fail to meet the goals articulated in the Integrated Review. Specifically, Watling’s report notes that the UK’s military must be able to perform three broad tasks, which include: deterrence by denial of Russian aggression against NATO; deterrence by punishment to protect UK interests; and the projection of UK influence around the world in order to build and strengthen the UK’s strategic partnerships. 

Ultimately, while the entirety of Watling’s report is worth a more thorough reading, the broad strokes are that since land forces enable countries to maintain a more robust and permanent presence in or near their partners—often at much lower costs than equivalent air and maritime forces; that land forces, unlike their air and maritime compatriots, are more difficult to eliminate or dislodge from their positions, meaning that they provide defenders with an asymmetric advantage over attackers, in that attackers must bring greater quantities of elements to bear when conducting their assaults; and that land forces maintain a human presence in the countries in which they operate, giving the UK the ability to understand the security environment better, provide better security to partners, engage with civilian populations to understand their needs, all of which provide greater levels of human security and enhance the UK’s global reputation.

To achieve these goals. Watling argues that the UK needs an Army that: is informed about its operating environment; is able to project its forces in an expeditionary capacity; is able to deploy into theater in a rapid timeframe; overmatches adversary formations of equivalent echelons in terms of firepower; and is compatible with the partners and allies alongside which it will need to fight. Despite these requirements, the Integrated Review and its associated Defence Command Paper have laid out cuts to the British Army in favor of more costly air and maritime platforms, limiting the British Army’s ability to meet the goals of UK policymakers. 

Watling’s report argues that the essential aims of the British Armed Forces are to deter Russia from escalating to warfighting against NATO and to deter global threats to UK economic and security interests through the capacity to deliver punishment in a timely manner. While Watling does not conclusively argue against the Integrated Review’s plans to build up the RAF and Royal Navy at the expense of Britain’s land forces, it is an inescapable conclusion that the current path being pursued by Whitehall fails to grapple with the primacy of the Russian threat to continental Europe. If the UK is to be a credible security partner for NATO and the European Union, attempts to cut the size of the British Army need to be rapidly reversed, and more time and money needs to be poured into efforts to create a robust British expeditionary force with the speed and firepower to support NATO and European allies through a range of mechanisms, from the Combined Joint Expeditionary Force with France to its enhanced Forward Presence deployments in the Baltic states. 

Final Thoughts

The war in Ukraine seems destined to go down as an early turning point in twenty-first century European history, seeing as it prompted Germany, the largest European economy, to awaken from its defense policy slumber and begin to take on more of a role in European security. 

However, this critical turning point takes place at a time when the UK, through Brexit, had been disengaging from Europe both economically and strategically. However, the war in Ukraine may hopefully be changing London’s calculus, and its rhetoric has begun to shift to meet the moment. Indeed, on April 6th, the UK’s Ian Stubbs, Senior Military Advisor at the UK Delegation to the OSCE said in remarks to the closing session of a Forum for Security Cooperation that, “the Russian government’s attempt to redraw the map of Europe in blood, and conquer an independent and democratic state by force of arms in an attack on the security and freedom of Europe. It is also an attack on the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture that was designed to increase security and stability in the region and, through trust, help prevent such appalling acts.” To that end, Stubbs argues, the OSCE’s primary focus, “must remain to work together – for however long it takes – to ensure that the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the independence of Ukraine is restored.” 

If the UK is to support overall Euro-Atlantic security, it will need to recognize that the Integrated Review, as originally envisioned, is not fit for purpose. While it may have seemed sensible in the past to pursue the goal of “Global Britain”, in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it would be foolish to think that the UK’s primary security interests are anywhere but in Europe. Therefore, if UK foreign policy and national security decision makers wish to strengthen their ability to act in a globally competitive, multipolar world, they will need to abandon lofty ambitions of being able to be present everywhere at the same time, and focus on the goal of being a better partner to the United States, the European Union, and NATO in providing for Euro-Atlantic defense. If the UK pursues this path, rebuilding a robust Army expeditionary strength so that it can credibly support continental Allies in a crisis, it will not only be better positioned to protect its security interests in its own backyard, but it will be better placed to capitalize on the strengthened relationships that come with being a credible security actor that provides real heft to operations it participates in. If, instead, the UK decides to simultaneously pursue its Indo-Pacific tilt while attempting to remain ready for a crisis in Europe, it will likely result in a UK Armed Forces that are ill-equipped for both tasks. Such a future would leave the UK unable to project real power into Asia without strong bi- or multilateral support, all while also lacking the land presence to truly make a difference against the major threat to peace in Europe: Russia. 

While it is certainly not too late for UK policy makers to reverse course, time is running out. As events in Ukraine should strikingly demonstrate, attempting deterrence by denial is a whole lot easier than trying to compel an enemy to halt an invasion through the use of economic tools, such as sanctions.

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Lurching from Crisis to Crisis: The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and the Untenable Status Quo

April 1, 2022

On Wednesday, March 29, a Palestinian gunman, allegedly armed with an M-16 assault rifle, murdered five people in Bnei Brak, a religious suburb on the outskirts of Tel Aviv in Israel. The incident brings the number of those killed by militants in recent days to eleven, and has heightened fears of another outbreak of violence in the leadup to Ramadan, Passover, and Easter, the intersection of which will see large numbers of Muslims, Jews, and Christians converge at holy sites in Israel in the coming weeks. Making matters worse, the Islamist group Hamas has praised the attack as a message to Israeli “occupiers” and the, “legitimate and moral valiant resistance to end the occupation form our land…” Following the attack, Israeli forces began a large-scale anti terror operation in the West Bank which left three Palestinian gunmen dead in a fight with Israeli commandos. 

The violence comes just days after top diplomats from Israel, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain and Egypt met at a resort in the Negev desert to discuss the war in Ukraine, the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, and the need to avoid violence in Israel and the occupied territories during the upcoming religious holidays. Also scheduled for the Negev summit were discussions between Israel, the U.S., and the four Arab states on energy and environmental matters. However, despite this renewed spirit of cooperation, which was enabled by the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, one group was conspicuous in its absence from talks: Palestinians. 

Despite many Arab nations’ condemnation of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza in May of last year, it has not prevented several of those countries from normalizing relations with Israel, and the recent talks in the Negev desert are just another sign that the issue of a Palestinian state has fallen by the wayside for several Arab countries, as their concerns about Iran, a desire to increase trade with Israel, and fears of U.S. retrenchment from the region have gained preeminence over a desire to support Palestinian statehood.

Source: https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/israel-and-gulf-security-partnership-around-corner-33179Source: https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/israel-and-gulf-security-partnership-around-corner-33179
Source: https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/israel-and-gulf-security-partnership-around-corner-33179

That said, little of this behavior from Arab governments is particularly new, as leaders in those countries did relatively little to assist Palestinians after the Israeli attacks on Gaza last May. The result of which is that, as was stated by Al Jazeera’s Nida Ibrahim on March 28, “there is a feeling that while the Arab nations are with the Palestinians, they feel betrayed by the Arab regimes.” 

Much of that feeling of betrayal must stem from the fact that since the 2021 Israel-Palestine crisis—a conflagration that was merely the latest in a long series of violent disputes between the two sides—little has occurred to change the status quo on the ground, frustrating not just the Palestinians living under Israeli occupation, but Israeli and Arab leaders who want to focus talks between themselves more on economic and regional security issues. 

Source: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA700/RRA725-1/RAND_RRA725-1.pdf#page=38
Source: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA700/RRA725-1/RAND_RRA725-1.pdf#page=38

However, until the situation in Gaza and the West Bank is addressed in a manner that is satisfactory for both Israelis and Palestinians, the issue will simply fester, just under the surface, until even greater violence than has occurred in the past week erupts once more, and the list of the dead grows ever longer. In that light, it is useful to take a look at a recent report from the International Crisis Group and the U.S./Middle East Project, “The Israeli Government’s Old-New Palestine Strategy,” which examines the ossification of the Israeli position on the Palestinian issue—exacerbated by a lack of Western action—and looks for ways to reduce risks of further violence. 

Distressingly, the Crisis Group report paints a somewhat bleak picture of the prospects for an improvement in the Israeli-Palestinian relationship, with little progress having been made between the two sides since last May’s fighting, and even less political will on either side to do more than trade accusations and blame. Importantly, the Crisis Group authors note that when Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett took office in June 2021, he vowed, in a speech to the Knesset the day he took office, to contribute to, “the reduction of friction and the shrinking of the conflict.” Furthermore, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid pledged to “minimize” the conflict in a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.  While there have been some positive steps—such as the meeting between Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in August 2021—even such silver linings are filled with dark clouds, as the move to strengthen the Palestinian Authority (PA) is not some altruistic gesture by Israel, but rather a somewhat transparent attempt to divert power away from Hamas. 

The Crisis Group report notes that Israel has taken several steps to underscore the idea that it has things under control: including the August meeting between Gantz and Abbas, and Gantz’s offer of confidence building measures between Israel and the PA, which include returning $155 million of Palestinian tax revenue—that Israel collected on Palestinians behalf—in exchange for deepening security coordination and efforts to prevent terror and further violence. However, as the authors correctly pointed out, this is, in effect, simply bribing Palestinians with their own tax money. Furthermore, such offers need to be situated in the proper context, as the offer to ease financial hardships with Palestinians must be seen as being in stark contrast with Israel’s Civil Administration’s continuing efforts to demolish Palestinian-owned structures in the West Bank. 

While, to be fair, Israel has taken a number of steps since last year’s war to alleviate the economic pressure on Gaza, including expanding the area in which Palestinian fisherman can operate and increasing water supply to the area—along with steps to allow for more Gazans to work in Israel—these moves have simply been a restoration of the pre-May 2021 status quo ante, and therefore do little to advance the overall peace process. However, for the foreseeable future, the current state of affairs appears to be just fine for Israeli leadership, which seems to prefer Palestinians remain divided while Jerusalem reaps the regional economic benefits of the Abraham Accords and normalization with the Arab world. 

Repression and De Facto Annexation

However, it is not only the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority which has seen benefits in the status quo: the Biden administration surely has no desire of a return the hard-line policies of Likud and Benjamin Netanyahu, and will want to avoid throwing up political obstacles for the Israeli coalition government. Therefore, it is likely that Bennett feels that he has more maneuvering room, seeing that the Biden administration will be reluctant to criticize Israel’s actions and damage the relationship. To that end, the Crisis Group authors note that the Bennett administration has pursued some aggressive moves that even Netanyahu may have backed away from, like the designation of six Palestinian civil society organizations (CSOs) as terrorist groups, which drew immediate outrage from the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet who argued that the designations were based on “vague or unsubstantiated grounds.” 

Rather than achieving Bennett’s goal of “shrinking the conflict”, the move to designate Palestinian CSOs is, “shrinking space” for groups working to hold Israel accountable, according to the head of Amnesty International’s Israel and Palestine office, Saleh Hijazi. Specifically, these designations hinder the work of these groups, impose difficult bureaucratic obstacles, and subject members of the CSOs to state surveillance, chilling their ability to operate freely. As the Crisis Group authors state, a terrorist designation is a death sentence for these organizations since it targets their sources of funding, crippling their ability to operate.

Despite the shrinking space for Palestinian civil society, and moves from the Knesset to deny naturalization to Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza who marry Israeli citizens, Israel’s Civil Administration has moved forward with the construction of over 3,500 new housing units in occupied East Jerusalem, along with now-suspended plans to expand settlements in the E1 area near Ma’ale Adumim, an area considered a vital corridor for Palestinian movement where settlement has been opposed in the past by the US and European Union. Such settlement construction has led the EU Representative to the Palestinian Authority Sven Kuhn von Burgsdorff to say that, “Israeli settlements are in clear violation of international law and constitute a major obstacle to a just, last[ing] and comprehensive peace between Israelis and Palestinians.”

Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/files/BreakingtheStatusQuo_final2.pdf#page=14
Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/files/BreakingtheStatusQuo_final2.pdf#page=14Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/files/BreakingtheStatusQuo_final2.pdf#page=14

Furthermore, the Crisis Group authors note that settlement expansion has also accompanied an increase in aggression by Israeli settlers against Palestinians, with 42 alleged offenses committed by Israeli citizens against Palestinian residents of the West Bank during the 2021 Olive Harvest season (October 1-November 15) alone, according to the Israeli human rights organization, Yesh Din. What’s more, thirteen of those incidents were violent, with Israeli civilians using fists, branches, clubs, pipes, tear gas, and even live ammunition to attack Palestinian farmers out in their fields. 

Another area of possible future confrontation is East Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, the original site of last year’s conflict between Israel and Palestinians. While Israel’s high court stayed the eviction of four Palestinian families from their homes in the neighborhood back on March 1—giving a lift to Palestinians living in East Jerusalem—the news was not greeted as hopefully in certain sections of Israel’s parliament. MK Itamar Ben Gvir, of the far-right Religious Zionist Party, bemoaned on Twitter that the court’s ruling was a “dark, illegal, undemocratic decision.” Ben Gvir, who was a player in last year’s conflict, has also attempted to set up an office in Sheikh Jarrah once again, after having done so last year during the leadup to the eleven-day war when Israeli police used skunk water, tear gas, and other methods to try and disperse Palestinian protestors in the area. 

In addition to these provocations, Israel has allowed an increasing number of Jews, under police protection, to pray or engage in worshipful gestures at the Holy Esplanade, a move that has been described by the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf—the religious trust which manages Islamic edifices on and around the Temple Mount, including al-Aqsa Mosque—as “provocative.” These tensions persist despite an October 2021 ruling by an Israeli judge that prayers by Jews at the site are unlawful. 

Further stoking tensions has been the excessive force used by the Jerusalem police, often without provocation, on Palestinians gathering in Jerusalem’s Old City, many of them minors. Finally, as another provocation, the Crisis Group authors also point to the planting of trees by the Jewish National Fund on land belonging to the Bedouin al-Atrash tribe in Sawa village, preventing those villagers who have lived there since before the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 from cultivating the wheat that they had planted just a few weeks earlier. Not only has the planting been critiqued on environmental grounds, as it has allowed a single species of tree to spread unchecked—diminishing regional biodiversity and increasing the risk of forest fires—it has been called colonialist, in that it continues a long-standing Zionist view of Palestine as a sort of terra nullius. In the estimation of some critics, the planting of trees is the Jewish National Fund’s way of staking an Israeli claim to land that the Bedouin’s have already long laid claim to. 

Specifically, the Crisis Group report states that Bedouins see the effort as part of a long-standing effort to expel them from the area, despite a standing ownership claim on twenty-five acres of land that was filed in the 1970s which the Israeli state has never discussed or recognized. When hundreds of Bedouin protestors clashed with police in January, they were violently dispersed by police using stun grenades and tear gas, with twelve demonstrators injured and three hospitalized. Taken together, these disputes demonstrate the ongoing domestic strife that continues to grip the country nearly a year after the latest major conflict. 

Reinforcing the Palestinian Authority

While all of the above was taking place, Israel took advantage of the ongoing Hamas/Palestinian Authority split, using the PA’s weakness—and Mahmoud Abbas’ desire to cling to power—against the two organizations. As part of the strategy, Israel worked to play the PA off against Hamas, all while keeping the Palestinian Authority dependent on Israeli support, and therefore largely compliant. While such a strategy had been formulated, and was beginning to be implemented, long before Bennett came to power, events in the last year have seen an entrenchment of each sides’ positions, with the Bennett administration doubling down on a strategy of divide and conquer towards the PA and Hamas.

Having lost much of its legitimacy among Palestinians for refusing to hold elections, as well as the death of Abbas-critics in Palestinian Authority custody, the Palestinian Authority is a shell of what it once was, at turns both corrupt and incompetent, incapable of doing much more than providing security in the West Bank in exchange for a lack of Israeli pressure to reform. With both the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli government well aware that Hamas would likely defeat the PA in elections due to the PA’s low legitimacy, the PA has continued to act as essentially the Palestinian army of Israeli security forces, making use of Israeli-manufactured weapons like stun grenades and tear gas. Meanwhile the Israeli government continues to support Abbas’ organization despite the group spending most of its money on security spending and little on improving service delivery in the West Bank. As noted by the Crisis Group authors, Israel’s support of the Palestinian Authority is not a step towards kickstarting the peace process, but instead a transparent and cynical exercise in preventing a real popular challenge to the status quo by Hamas. All of which just adds to the ongoing tensions between the two sides. 

A Little Less Conversation, A Little More Action, Please

The essential problem with the strategy of “shrinking the conflict” is that it does not actually end the conflict or arrive at anything close to a peaceful resolution of this seemingly intractable dispute. Rather, the strategy reflects a willingness on all sides to limp along, hoping that the next incident of violence does not erupt into yet another full-scale war between Israelis and Palestinians. With the Biden administration’s primary regional priority seemingly being the return of JCPOA—and fearing that any negative comments about Israeli policy could destabilize the Bennett-Lapid coalition—his team has been reluctant to exert the same kind of pressure that it did on former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last year during the crisis. While Biden has remained publicly committed to a two-state solution, his administration has never seemed to prioritize the conflict, recognizing, somewhat correctly, that any move to confront Israel over its apartheid-like treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank would risk further domestic political backlash from groups supportive of Israel.

In Europe, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has publicly stated that, “the two-state solution is the only one that can provide dignity and freedom to Israel and Palestine. I believe we are further away from that than ever, but we have to put it on the table. Not just say the words, we need to work on it.” However, the Crisis Group authors note that the EU and European governments have, in the last year, limited themselves to statements critical of the Israeli government, rather than doing anything more concrete to address issues such as the improper designation of Palestinian CSOs. The authors note that many European states have refrained, because, as with the U.S., they want to avoid a return to a Netanyahu-style, hard-right, administration in Jerusalem. Despite the protestation from the EU’s foreign policy chief that the status quo is untenable, European governments have done relatively little to achieve a breakthrough in the crisis. While the European Union has called on Israel to cease home demolitions and halt its settlement expansions, European governments have been reluctant to back up their calls with any real threats, essentially giving Bennett a free pass to ignore their pleas.

The Crisis Group report notes that while Western governments had been initially hesitant to criticize the Bennett-Lapid government, out of fear of destabilizing it, the Bennett-Lapid coalition has seemingly passed its most difficult test, pushing through Israel’s first budget since 2018 in early November, and taking a great deal of the pressure from Netanyahu’s Likud off of the table. Despite this, Western governments have still refrained from critiques of the Bennet-Lapid government, as tensions persist amongst fractious coalition members, fearing that any outside criticism could end up toppling the government. 

However, as is correctly noted by the report’s authors, Western allies will only be able to determine the Bennett-Lapid coalition’s flexibility on Palestinian issues if they actually push them on those issues. If, instead, they continue to treat the Israeli government with kid gloves, it will only encourage Israel to continue on its path towards de facto annexation, and will essentially guarantee the return of violence to the conflict. With Western governments limiting themselves to statements of concern over Israel’s continued settlement expansion, treatment of Palestinian civil society groups, and overall lack of progress on a two-state solution, there is a distinct lack of action from the West to alter the status quo and help improve the situation for Palestinians. 

Crisis Group Conclusions and Other Thoughts

The Crisis Group authors close with a call to action for Western governments on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. With a series of terror attacks being unleashed in Israel in recent weeks—and with upcoming Jewish, Muslim, and Christian religious holidays intersecting—continued inaction by Western governments is merely an endorsement of the seemingly inevitable future violence that will take place. To prevent such a future, the Crisis Group authors propose that Western governments should press for a long-term truce in Gaza, a return to the status quo in the Holy Esplanade, and a halt to settlement expansion in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Furthermore, the authors call for Western governments to support efforts to hold Palestinian elections—including in East Jerusalem—and to revise the U.S., United Nations, European Union, Russian Quartet’s conditions that have been imposed on Hamas in order to allow the group to participate in a unity government. Finally, the report’s authors argue that international actors should rethink their engagement on the conflict more broadly, as the Bennett-Lapid government’s policies since they have taken office have demonstrated that the peace process, as currently formulated, is all but doomed. 

However, while all of the Crisis Group suggestions are useful, they are not the only paths that international actors could pursue to try to return some vitality to the moribund peace process. With violence already starting back up and the anniversary of last year’s fighting just around the corner, Western states need to do more to shift the positions of Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas, lest they risk another flare-up that costs hundreds more Israelis and Palestinians their lives. 

When it comes to Israel and the Bennett-Lapid government, more will need to be done to shift it from its current hostility towards a two-state solution. As former Ambassador Hesham Youssef of Egypt wrote in a piece for the United States Institute of Peace in February 2022, Prime Minister Bennett has made clear his lack of interest in a return of the peace process. Since taking office, Bennett has reinforced “Six No’s” that have guided Israeli strategy towards the Palestinian issue, which are: no-two state solution; no one-state solution; no political negotiations with Palestinians; no end to Israeli settlements; no Palestinian sovereignty in East Jerusalem; and no refugee right of return. This intractability and unwillingness to negotiate on any of conflict’s essential issues demonstrates that the Bennett-Lapid coalition—whether from fear of attacks by the right-wing opposition or out of a genuine belief that Israel lacks a proper Palestinian negotiating partner—that Israel is perfectly content with the current status quo. 

Furthermore, as Ambassador Youssef points out, while the Bennett government has taken small steps to improve the economic conditions for some Palestinians—granting 4,000 Palestinians living in the occupied territories legal status, and loaning money to the Palestinian Authority—such efforts to essentially buy-off certain segments of the Palestinian population will not make the conflict’s central issues disappear. Essentially, efforts that only pick around the edges are doomed to be dead on arrival, as they simply do not address the issues at the heart of the conflict—which is the fact that absent a one- or two-state solution, Israel’s treatment of Palestinians essentially amounts to a system of apartheid, and such conditions will leave certain individuals feeling like second-class citizens, and thus more prone to violence against their perceived oppressors.

While the Crisis Group authors are correct in their summation that the current status quo is unsustainable, their calls for Western action should go further. While the U.S. has restored funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), and the Biden administration has pledged to reopen the PLO’s offices in Washington, the administration could do more to repair its credibility with Palestinians. Up to this point, the Biden administration has been relatively inactive on Israeli settlement construction and annexation, with reports of sources near Prime Minister Bennett saying that, “contrary to the impression they’re trying to make, the Americans don’t care that much about the Ministry of Construction and Housing’s decision, and they have no problem tolerating it.” Finally, while the Biden administration has rhetorically kept up its support for a two-state solution, little has been done by the U.S. to effect such an outcome.

Further left unaddressed is the proverbial eight hundred pound gorilla in the room, which are the Abraham Accords. The Trump-era deal, which marked the first normalization between Arab countries and Israel since the early 1990s, was designed as an alternative to Israeli annexation plans for large sections of the West Bank. Functionally, however, the deal acts as cover for Arab autocrats in the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco to make business deals between their countries and the lucrative Israeli market, while boosting Arab-Israeli coordination against Iran. 

Fundamentally, this is an abandonment by certain Arab states of the tenets of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which reaffirmed the principle of land for peace, which entailed, “Israel’s acceptance of an independent Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, in return for the establishment of normal relations in the context of a comprehensive peace with Israel.” With four Arab countries already normalizing relations as a result of the Abraham Accords, it cut the legs out from under the land for peace formulation, as the suspension of diplomatic ties was the strongest condemnation that many Arab states could give Israel. 

Best illustrating the growing Israeli-Arab rapprochement—as well as the fundamental drift of the U.S. away from the levers of power in the region—was the late January visit of Israeli President Isaac Herzog to the United Arab Emirates. Just over a week after Abu Dhabi was struck by Houthi drone and missile attacks on January 17, Israel’s President announced a visit to the UAE and, “ordered the Israeli security establishment to provide their counterparts in the UAE with any assistance” necessary to protect against future Houthi strikes. Contrasted with the recently supportive Israeli-UAE relationship is the newly difficult relationship between Washington and Abu Dhabi, as Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan had allegedly declined to discuss U.S. requests for the UAE’s assistance in curbing the global surge in oil prices. This newfound enmity was allegedly due to the Crown Prince’s feeling that the U.S. was not supportive enough in the immediate aftermath of the January Houthi attack, having failed to immediately hold a call between the President Biden and the UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. As a result of all this, the current state of affairs is such that the only country that is acting in full support of a two-state solution—the United States—is the country on the outside, looking in, with ever weakening leverage to effect a change in the fundamentally flawed status quo.

With the U.S., under the Biden administration, trying to continue its pivot away from the Middle East and towards the Indo-Pacific, the space of the United States to make a real difference on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is diminishing. Furthermore, with Fatah leadership refusing to hold parliamentary elections, the Bennett-Lapid coalition content with the status quo, and the Quartet restrictions preventing Hamas’ participation in a free and fair electoral process for Palestinians, there is a lack of interlocutors with which to engage in the U.S.’ pursuit of a two-state solution. 

However, that does not mean that the Biden administration should abandon its pursuit. Instead, what it needs is the type of creative thinking and bold action that often seems lacking on the Israeli-Palestinian file. While the conundrum may seem unmanageable, the Biden administration, along with its partners in Europe, could be doing more to effect a change in the status quo. 

Alongside following the Crisis Group authors’ recommendations, the Biden administration should actively encourage and facilitate reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah in the hopes of laying the ground for new elections in Gaza and the West Bank. The U.S. should also work with its European and MENA partners to pressure Yair Lapid, communicating to him that when his turn comes in the Israeli premiership, a two-state solution must be put back on the menu lest Israel risk Western opprobrium. 

In return, the U.S. and European countries can not only offer robust rhetorical support to the Lapid administration, they can threaten to withhold valuable assistance they are already providing. For instance, despite the fact that Israel has, in recent years, grown less and less dependent on the U.S. security guarantee, there are still a few areas of cooperation that the U.S. and Europe could threaten to cut off. Specifically, as of July 2021, the U.S. had 629 active Foreign Military sales cases with Israel, worth a total of $23.2 billion, which could have new conditions imposed upon them if Israel does not re-embrace a two-state outcome. Furthermore, in recent years, the U.S. has teamed up with Israel to conduct joint security drills in the Red Sea, where Israel is concerned about skirmishes with Iran. The U.S. could therefore threaten to withhold or modify such military sales and halt security drills, absent a change in Israeli policy towards Palestinians. 

Source: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf#page=23
Source: https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf#page=23

However, all of that being said, the prospects for such a change in tack from the Biden administration are approaching zero. With a war raging in Ukraine and facing an increasingly aggressive China, the administration already has its foreign policy hands full, and has demonstrated little desire to upset the apple cart over the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Cutting off or even paring back foreign military sales to Israel would require action from the U.S. Congress, which, with its historically staunch support of Israel, seems highly unlikely. Furthermore, with such robust U.S. public and congressional support for Israel, it is likely that the Bennett-Lapid administration might simply choose to try and weather any potential threats from a Biden administration facing mid-term election in a few months and a re-election campaign kicking off in less than a year. Additionally, there is the complication that the only Palestinian player with which the international community will deal with—the Palestinian Authority—has a leadership under Mahmoud Abbas which clings to power despite the fact that 73% of Palestinians want him to resign and 55% viewing the PA as a burden rather than an asset.

It is certainly understandable why the West would not want to make any deals with Hamas. The group seemingly fits the dictionary definition of what makes a terrorist organization, and the murders of Israelis carried out by its members makes the idea of talking with them abhorrent to Western governments, especially until they vow to reform their ways. However, absent a change in course from the Israeli government—which is unlikely to come anytime soon as Israeli public opinion across the political spectrum favors the status quo over a two-state solution—there is seemingly no player involved that desires anything but a continuation of the current state of affairs.

At an October 2021 UN Security Council Meeting, Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland underlined a need to change the status quo, saying that, “we can no longer lurch from crisis to crisis,” in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, until the current situation is altered, either through the death or removal of Abbas; a political change atop the Israeli or U.S. governments; or an unlikely change in heart by Hamas, the status quo will likely be the path that Israelis and Palestinians will be on for the foreseeable future. Until, of course, the next outbreak of violence. When that happens, and observers wonder if more could have been done to prevent it, the answer will be yes, only that the will to pursue it was lacking from all quarters. In such a situation, all sides will bear responsibility for their lack of action.

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Unforced Errors: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Turkey’s Domestic and Foreign Policy Crises

March 25, 2022

Early last summer, Pavel Baev, writing for the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), wrote that, “the tumultuous year 2020 tested and significantly degraded the always ambiguous Russian-Turkish partnership, which had become transactional at best and certainly not ‘strategic’”, and that, “the maturing of autocratic regimes in Russia and Turkey does not facilitate their rapprochement in the security domain, as each ambitious ruler is more interested in exploiting the opportunities emerging from the conflict the other one is facing in relations with the West than in extending a helping hand to the fellow dictator-in-distress. 

However, if the year 2020 was one filled with tumult that tried the relationship between Moscow and Ankara, then the year 2022 is shaping up to be even more important for the future of the Putin-Erdoğan relationship. Just as, “Turkish forceful interference in the Nagorno Karabakh war was decisive in securing the victory for Azerbaijan and devalued Russian security guarantees for Armenia,” Turkish involvement in the war in Ukraine, via its Bayraktar TB2 drones threatens to damage the bilateral relationship, as Turkish drones continue to inflict damage on Russian forces throughout Ukraine. However, Ankara is attempting to thread the needle on Ukraine, repeatedly volunteering to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow, working diligently to arrange a cease-fire. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Vavusoglu says that, while, “of course, it is not an easy thing to come to terms with while while the war is going on, while civilians are killed, but we would like to say that momentum is still gained…We see that the parties are close to an agreement,” and that Turkey is, “working day and night for peace.”

The questions then become: why did Turkey—which has numerous areas of conflict with both Russia and the West—choose to attempt this delicate balancing act? And will Erdoğan manage to navigate his way out of his mostly self-inflicted situation?

While there is probably no one definitive answer to either question, it is important to examine the various areas of conflict and overlapping interests between Turkey and Russia—as well as Turkey and the West—to see where there is room for the U.S. and Europe to drive a further wedge into the Russo-Turkish relationship and get the long-time NATO ally back on-side and firmly in the Western camp. Furthermore, it is important to see whether Erdoğan has any chances of turning around Turkey’s damaged economy and convincing Turks that he deserves more time at the top. While the West will certainly not be able to aid Turkey in achieving all of its goals—especially towards Kurdish groups in Syria—there are areas of potential cooperation that could improve the Western relationship with Ankara, and make Turkey more resilient against Russian economic and geopolitical pressure.

Domestic Discontent – Economic Woes

Before diving into the ups-and-downs of the Russia-Turkey relationship, it is important to first understand the situation that Erdoğan faces at home, as his domestic circumstances likely drive much of Turkish foreign policy. To fully comprehend the problems that Erdoğan must confront, one must first understand the troubling state of the Turkish economy. As noted in a December 2021 piece by the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ (GMFUS) Kadri Tastan, as Prime Minister in 2011, Erdoğan set ambitious economic goals for the 2023 Turkish centennial, with a stated desire for the country to become one of the world’s ten largest economies with a GDP per capita of at least $25,000. 

Source: https://graphics.reuters.com/TURKEY-ECONOMY/ERDOGAN/jbyvrgxlxpe/index.html
Source: https://graphics.reuters.com/TURKEY-ECONOMY/ERDOGAN/jbyvrgxlxpe/index.html

With a successful political career, largely based on the promise of uninterrupted economic growth, Erdoğan has, in recent years, felt the need to defy the conventional economic wisdom that when prices go up, so must interest rates to combat them. Instead, he has slashed interest rates in order to balance out Turkey’s current account deficit and make its exports more attractive. 

However, Erdoğan has not only fallen short of his goals, but Turkish GDP per capita has shrunk from a high of $12,614 in 2013 to just $8,536 in 2020, though that figure did rebound a touch in 2021, after the worst of the pandemic, to over $9,500. Despite this modest improvement, the economic picture in Turkey is still poor, with the World Bank noting in February 2022 that, despite the unexpectedly strong growth in 2021, “Turkey’s economy is likely to expand at a much slower pace this year as rising domestic macroeconomic challenges moderates growth.” The World Bank further notes that, “frequent changes in the monetary policy setting, epitomized by a series of interest rate cuts since last September, sent the Lira dropping to historic lows and inflation soaring to record highs. While exports boomed in 2021, these challenges have eroded real incomes for poorer households.” With the 2021 performance of the Turkish lira the worst since Erdoğan came to power—exacerbated by the central bank’s interest rate cuts—Ankara is facing an economic crisis. Rampant inflation is not only affecting Turkish citizens’ daily life, but is having a dramatic effect on Erdoğan’s approval rating, with ratings at their lowest since 2015 at just 38.6%. 

As was pointed out by the GMFUS’ Tastan, when the COVID-19 pandemic struck, “Turkey was already suffering from a record depreciation of the lira and a depletion of foreign-exchange reserves to counter this, as well as from double-digit inflation from the previous two years,” and, “as a result of these problems…and of unorthodox monetary policies, the economy has faced significant challenges in recent years.” Tastan continues, “as Turkey is dependent on imports, including for manufacturing its export products, every drop in the lira increases the cost of basic goods and makes life very difficult for the most vulnerable segments of the population.” 

Today, all of these problems have coalesced into a devastating cocktail as the country faces high unemployment, the integration of a large influx of migrants, the ongoing effects of the pandemic, and the costs of military interventions in Syria, Libya, and Iraq—all of which have led Erdoğan to gamble on short-term economic policies that will likely do little to resolve the country’s long-term, structural difficulties. 

Furthermore, the country’s economic woes have led Erdoğan’s opponents to close ranks, with the six opposition parties signing a declaration in late February, outlining plans to overhaul the presidency and restore power back to parliament and state institutions. With the Turkish economy still impacted by decisions made shortly after the 2008 financial crisis, which has seen an exploding foreign exchange deficit, and the central bank still cutting interest rates and selling off its dwindling foreign currency reserves to prop up the lira, Erdoğan faces an uphill climb in his re-election efforts. However, despite being well aware of where Turkish economic woes come from, Erdoğan likely has few appetizing ways out of the situation. However, economic problems are not the only issues facing Turkish leadership. 

Domestic Discontent – The Undermining of Turkish Institutions

Concurrent with the country’s economic woes has been a growing domestic discontent fueled by Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) undermining of Turkish domestic institutions, with the consolidation and personalization of rule under Erdoğan ultimately leading critics to unite in their opposition against the administration. 

Following the 2016 attempted coup, and elections in 2019 that saw AKP’s opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) win the mayoral election in Istanbul—despite the election having been rerun because the AKP alleged irregularities the first time around—Erdoğan realized that he needed to do more to simultaneously improve the situation for average Turks while also consolidating power in the executive branch. While the regime’s economic and monetary policies were aimed at raising incomes for ordinary citizens, Erdoğan also led a crackdown on independent journalists, academic freedom, and other voices of dissent throughout the country that might threaten his rule. Furthermore, he has led a hollowing out of institutions throughout the country, as capable and experienced bureaucrats are replaced with Erdoğan loyalists and power is concentrated more and more under the presidency. 

As noted by the U.S. Naval War College’s Burak Kadercan, in a piece for War on the Rocks titled, “Symphony of Destruction: How the AKP is Undermining Turkey’s Institutions,” Erdoğan’s AKP has long relied on the provision of public goods to keep the public happy, providing social welfare benefits to low- and middle-income families, including revitalizing the country’s healthcare system. But a poor economy and worse governance has created a scenario wherein Erdoğan is unable to provide those benefits anymore, threatening his political survival. 

Moreover, the hosting of nearly 4 million Syrian refugees has created tensions between Turkish citizens and Syrian refugees, which also causes problems for Erdoğan and AKP, especially when such discontent turns violent, as has occurred in the past. Further inflaming tensions—as was noted in a September piece for the London School of Economics by Toygar Sinan Baykan—in recent years, AKP has become increasingly dependent on its partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which takes a more strident stance against the hosting of Syrians, arguing that large swathes of Syrian refugees need to leave Turkey. 

Meanwhile, Erdoğan’s 2017 constitutional changes, which moved the country away from a parliamentary system and towards a presidential one, gave his opposition a chance to unite together, as the new system required a runoff between the two leading candidates, giving the opposition the ability to rally around an anti-AKP candidate for president. However, combined with a decline in support from 52% in 2018 elections to just 30-40% today, Erdoğan is not only politically vulnerable, but that vulnerability may lead to greater crackdowns on civil society and the opposition before polls open in June of 2023. 

Foreign Troubles – Iraq, Syria, and the Kurdish Question

However, if Erdoğan was only facing domestic problems, he might not be in such a tough position, as presidents all over the world have had to deal with the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis and the effects of the pandemic. Instead, due to choices made under his rule, as well as economic exigencies and historical Turkish commitments, Erdoğan faces a number of foreign policy crises that threaten not only his re-election prospects, but Turkey’s delicate position, straddling the gulf between Russia and the West. 

Paramount among these problems is what Erdoğan has called in the past, Turkey’s “Kurdish question”. As the Brookings Institution’s Ömer Taşpınar noted in a commentary from the fall of 2021, “Ankara’s historic failure to find democratic solutions to Kurdish ethnic demands has created a deeply insecure and chronically irrational Turkish political culture.” However, when Erdoğan came to power, taking time to speak out against ethnic strife, and working to boost the rights of Kurds in Turkey, it was thought that the days of Turkish-Kurdish strife might be on their way out. 

Nevertheless, the days of Ankara battling the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates and offshoots, the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) and People’s Protection Units (YPG), are seemingly far from over, as Erdoğan has embraced the MHP’s harsh discourse on the Kurdish issue after the Nationalist Movement Party vowed to support the regime following the 2016 coup attempt. 

While Erdoğan’s AKP has always had its roots in Islamist policies, after AKP’s 2011 general election victory, a 2021 UK House of Commons report notes, “the ruling AKP of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, far from addressing Kurdish claims, increased his nationalist rhetoric, in line with its generally more authoritarian and conservative Islamist tone.” Along with that increasing nationalism and Islamist tone, Erdoğan has intensified the long-running conflict with Kurdish groups, particularly against the PKK insurgency. 

What’s more, Erdoğan has not been content to just go after militant groups. Despite the fact that the Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) is the largest Kurdish political party in the country, the U.S. State Department, in its 2020 Human Rights Report on Turkey noted that, “nearly all private Kurdish-language newspapers, television channels, and radio stations remained closed on national security grounds.” Furthermore, this crackdown is largely due to the fact that, as a 2020 Human Rights Watch report notes, “the Erdoğan government refuses to distinguish between the PKK and the democratically elected Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).” 

All of these issues have led to renewed conflict between Turkey and the PKK since 2015—and especially since the attempted coup in 2016—with the fighting moving from Turkey’s Kurdish-majority southeast to northern Iraq and Syria, as the Turkish military forced PKK fighters out of Turkish territory. In Iraqi Kurdistan, this led to a partnership between Erdoğan’s AKP and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which joined Ankara in opposing the PKK’s presence in the area, and permitted Turkey to set up military bases and expand its intelligence collection in territory it administers. 

Source: https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/western-europemediterranean/turkey/turkeys-pkk-conflict-regional-battleground-flux
Source: https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/western-europemediterranean/turkey/turkeys-pkk-conflict-regional-battleground-flux

In response, as has been noted by the International Crisis Group’s Berkay Mandıracı, the PKK has increased its influence in both Sinjar district in northern Iraq as well as in northeastern Syria. As a result, Turkey worries that Sinjar acts as a, “bridge connecting the PKK in northern Iraq with the YPG and other affiliates in north-eastern Syria,” forcing Turkish officials to vow that they will not permit Sinjar to become a PKK bastion. 

Consequently, in order to protect against the expansion of a Kurdish front, Turkey has stepped up airstrikes in the region since 2020, in the hopes of disrupting Yazidi Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) and PKK forces. While there are steps that outside governments can take to help address Turkey’s security concerns vis-à-vis Kurds in Syria and Iraq—such as the Iraqi federal government and the PKK making progress on the Sinjar agreement and the U.S. pressuring the YPG to rein in its attacks on Turkish troops in Syria—they will be difficult to achieve. Meanwhile, while fatalities in the conflict have fallen off dramatically since the peak in 2015-2016, the “Kurdish question” does not appear to be going away anytime soon, meaning it will not only remain a contentious issue for Erdoğan’s re-election bid, but will continue to cause an economic drain on Turkey that it can ill afford at this moment. 

Today, Ankara faces the problem that even if it wished to come to a peaceful solution to the, “Kurdish question”, there is a lack of acceptable interlocutors with whom it could negotiate, as Erdoğan accuses Kurdish politicians of links to terror groups and arrests them, making it nearly impossible to come to any political arrangements with them. However, as was pointed out in a 2019 report from the Center for American Progress’ Max Hoffman, “because the costs of continued conflict are so high, holding back economic growth and shattering tens of thousands of lives, the incentive to de-escalate are strong.” With the economic crisis currently facing the country, it would be foolhardy to continue to pursue this campaign against these groups. That said, all signs currently point to Ankara continuing its aerial attacks on the PKK in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, with all of the human and economic costs that they entail.

Foreign Troubles – Eastern Mediterranean Gas

Other major issues facing Erdoğan are the interconnected energy and geopolitical situations in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. While gas was first discovered in the area in the late 1960s and early 1970s, it was not until the last decade that the region’s undersea potential was truly recognized. While the world’s ongoing green energy transition, especially the EU’s, will impact future demand for Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbons, in the meantime, discoveries in fields across the seabed have the potential to provide regional countries with both vitally needed energy supplies as well as gas to sell as exports. 

Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/AC_EastMediterranean.pdf#page=2
Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/AC_EastMediterranean.pdf#page=2

While seven countries (Egypt, Israel, Greece, the Republic of Cyprus, Jordan, Italy, and the Palestinian Authority) formed the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum in January 2019, Turkey was notable in its absence. At the root of Turkey’s exclusion from the body are longtime Greco-Turkish-Cypriot maritime disputes over boundary delineations in the Eastern Mediterranean, along with disputes over hydrocarbon extraction and pipelines between Turkey, Israel, Egypt, and some EU member countries. 

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/263-turkey-greece-maritime.pdf#page=42
https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/263-turkey-greece-maritime.pdf#page=42

While the Turkish-Cypriot-Greek disputes trace back to a Greece-backed coup in Nicosia in 1974—with the island being partitioned between the Greek-majority Republic of Cyprus in the south with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) in the north—it was not until U.S. company Noble Energy discovered the Aphrodite gas field in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in 2011 that the current conflict really kicked off. While Nicosia feels that it is its right to make decisions on drilling in its EEZ, Ankara argues that the distribution of the island’s natural resources should instead be negotiated with their ally, Northern Cyprus. 

The real problem, however, lies with a potential Cyprus-Egypt gas pipeline, whereby Cairo would receive exported Cypriot gas from the Aphrodite gas field, which Egypt would then liquify and re-export to the European market as liquid natural gas (LNG), cutting out both Turkey and Turkish Cypriots. However, when Turkey blocked Italy’s largest gas company, Eni, from reaching waters off the coast of Cyprus in February of 2018, Italy decided to work more closely with the Republic of Cyprus and Egypt, forming the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum. Then, when Italian firm Eni partnered with French energy company Total in 2019, it locked in French participation, with Paris officially joining the EMGF in 2021. 

While Turkey regards French regional involvement negatively, as France has even come to an agreement with Cyprus on the use of a naval base, France sees Turkish exploration and drilling ships in Cypriot waters as a violation of an EU-members’ EEZ. While in recent years, European decarbonization efforts, a glut of LNG, and the potential for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline coming online, have all reduced the importance of extracting the region’s undersea gas, it does not mean that countries such as Israel, Greece, Egypt, and Turkey have lost all interest in expanding and diversifying their energy supplies. 

While Erdoğan is unlikely to abandon either his Cypriot partners in TRNC nor his country’s pursuit of a more robust mix of energy supplies, he will need to be extremely careful not to aggravate the Europeans too much, as difficulties in the relationship—which already persist due to Franco-Turkish disputes over Turkey’s intervention in Libya and the maritime treaty signed between Tripoli and Ankara in 2019—threaten to further undermine the relationship between Paris and Ankara. Further complicating Erdoğan’s dilemma is the fact that closer ties between Egypt, Israel, France, Greece, and Cyprus will only further constrain Ankara’s ability to act in waters it refers to as its, “Blue Homeland.” Finally, while the EU remains Ankara’s primary trading partner, and European states rely on Turkey to stop illegal migrant flows, the European Parliament in May of 2021 voted to suspend Turkey’s EU accession negotiations, further souring relations.

Though ties between Turkey and Israel seem to be improving—especially with the visit of Israeli President Herzog to Ankara in recent months—it is unlikely to end Turkey’s sequestration, and further aggressive action in the Eastern Mediterranean by Ankara will only serve to heighten Turkey’s growing regional isolation. That said, in recent years, Russia has acted as a key partner for Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, though the days of close cooperation may be on their way out with the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine. Either way, with Erdoğan seeing the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean as boxing Ankara in and giving it few useful partners to work with, it also sought to reach out to what it saw as, “the only remaining eastern Mediterranean littoral state with which it had friendly ties,”: Libya. 

Foreign Troubles – Libya

However, rather than acting as a life-line, the ongoing situation in Libya has merely served to further cloud Erdoğan’s threat radar, and Tripoli has, in recent weeks seen political tensions threaten to boil over once again, as eastern- and western-based politicians are unable to come to an agreement on elections or a new constitution. 

Turkey, which entered the conflict in January of 2020 to assist the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in pushing back the offensive of Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army, has seen its economic and geopolitical interests in Libya once again threatened, giving Erdoğan yet another foreign policy crisis with which he must deal. Now, with Ankara’s forces still entrenched in the western part of the country, the goal of securing Turkish interests may force Erdoğan to remain involved in the conflict. 

While Turkey and Libya have committed, in recent years, to strategic and economic cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean, Ankara will need to make sure that it retains a governing partner in Tripoli that is able to enforce these deals. However, such assurances are hard to come by in light of the current feud between rival governments in Libya, as the sides are unable to come to an agreement on the holding of elections that were supposed to take place in December of last year. 

Currently, Turkey appears to prefer that Abdul Hamid Dabaiba—the interim Prime Minister whose term expired in December—remain in power rather than see the formation of a new government led by former Turkish partner, Libyan Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha. With a standoff simmering, and tensions still lingering, Ankara has urged the country to refrain from steps that could lead to a new outbreak of violence, lest it be forced to send even more troops to a country that should no longer have any foreign troops. Furthermore, in supporting its chosen candidate, Turkey must balance relations with Russia, which supports the east-based government and the forces of General Khalifa Haftar. As noted in a recent International Crisis Group report, both Moscow and Ankara are ambivalent about the way forward. While Turkey surely wishes to secure its interests in a future Libya not under the sway of Egypt or the UAE, and keep in Tripoli a government that is sensitive to Ankara’s concerned about the future of the eastern Mediterranean, Erdoğan has been careful to hedge his bets and has initiated talks with members of the Libyan parliament. In Libya, Erdoğan can little afford to make the wrong decision, lest he see the country descend once more into violence. 

Foreign Troubles – Russia

One final element complicating Turkey’s international picture is the convoluted relationship with Russia, a partnership which has only become more troublesome since Moscow invaded Ukraine in late February. While Ankara has, with U.S. approval, held out its hand as a mediator for the conflict, talks have not done much to achieve any kind of progress as of yet. However, it is important to not only understand the role that Turkey plays in possible talks between Moscow and Kyiv, but to also understand the long relationship that Turkey has with Russia to see the difficulties that are brought on by the outbreak of war in Ukraine.

As was well put by Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti of Italy’s Institute for International Political Studies in a recent interview with the International Crisis Group, “today, Turkey is more prone to collaborating with Russia because they speak the same language, the language of interest. Apart from [their grievances with the West], they are able to accommodate each other’s national insecurities and interests. So that is why this relationship is working despite the differences.”

The best way to see this ability to maintain the relationship, despite differences, is through the economic, security, and geostrategic partnerships that Ankara has achieved with Moscow. For instance, on the economic front, trade ties between the two countries are extremely important, with total trade between the two countries reaching $17.6 billion in 2020. However Turkish exports to Russia are much lower than Russian exports to Turkey, meaning the relationship is imbalanced. Part of that imbalance is due to Turkish dependence on Russian gas, which, despite Turkish diversification in recent years, saw Russia supply 33% of Turkey’s natural gas in 2020. 

That said, while the overall economic relationship is rather one-sided, the energy relationship is not as lopsided as one might initially believe. For instance, as noted in an October 2021 report for the German Institute for International Affairs by Daria Isachenko, in energy, Russian dependence on Turkey can be seen through the importance Moscow placed on the TurkStream gas pipelines and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant. During the dispute between Moscow and Ankara over the downing of a Russian jet in 2015, with tensions between the two countries running high, Turkey threatened to stop cooperating with Russia on both the pipeline and the power plant, impeding Russia’s efforts to cut off Ukraine as a gas transit country. Therefore, ultimately, Moscow did not let the downing of a Russian fighter jeopardize the important, and burgeoning, energy relationship.

As evidence of the two country’s ongoing partnership, in the fall of 2017, following a YPG attack on Turkish convoys in Syria and the 2015 withdrawal of U.S. Patriot Missile batteries, Moscow and Ankara signed a deal for Turkey to receive Russian-made S-400 air defense missiles, much to the chagrin of the United States and Turkey’s other NATO allies. Those countries felt that Turkish possession of Russian missile defense systems would give Moscow far too much intelligence on the F-35 fighters that they were co-producing with NATO allies. Therefore, when Turkey was removed from the program in 2019, it not only drove a wedge between NATO, Europe, and Turkey, but pushed Ankara towards greater cooperation with Moscow.  

However, things are not all sunshine and lollipops in the Russo-Turkish relationship. In addition to backing opposing groups in Libya, the two countries also have to navigate cooperation and competition in conflicts in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh in the south Caucasus. In Syria, where the primary Russian goal has always been the preservation of the Assad regime, Turkey has shifted from seeking regime change to merely weakening Kurdish YPG forces operating in the country. As noted in a September 2021 paper by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Franceso Siccardi, both sides have benefited from the relationship in Syria, with Turkey managing to eliminate a Kurdish presence from the border with Syria, while Russia has been able to exploit Ankara’s hostility towards the YPG by bringing the group closer to Damascus. Meanwhile, the two countries have attempted to balance the interests of the Assad regime in gaining control over Idlib against Ankara’s fears of a migrant exodus into Turkey if the Assad regime overruns the enclave—though such efforts have often been less than fully successful.

Together, Russo-Turkish cooperation in Syria has resulted in a number of positive developments, such as the creation of the Astana process in January of 2017, as well as the Sochi agreements in 2018 and 2019—once again, despite none of the agreements bringing about an end to the conflict. In the end, the conflict has mostly stalemated, with Turkey refusing to take action to eliminate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib, and Russia refusing to support a regime advance, as it would trigger a Turkish military response and drive a further wedge between Moscow and Ankara, preventing future cooperation on the Syria file. 

Yet another realm in which Turkey and Russia continue to find both areas of cooperation and contestation is in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the south Caucasus. While the two countries took different sides in the war—with Russia at least nominally supporting Armenia and Turkey supporting Azerbaijan—in reality, Russia looked to exploit Yerevan’s weakness to attempt to push out Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who Moscow viewed as a stooge of George Soros and Western influence. Ultimately, the war’s end has brought the deployment of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to the borders of Nagorno-Karabakh for the next five years, a situation that has created, “an uncomfortable level of dependency in both Azerbaijan and Armenia,” according to a recent report from Asli Aydıntaşbaş and Richard Giragosian, with Armenia reliant on Russian security guarantees and Azerbaijan requiring a Turkish counterweight to the Russian peacekeepers influence in the newly re-captured territory. 

While Turkey’s partner Azerbaijan was the clear winner in the 2020 conflict, it is far from clear that Turkey is a similar winner in Nagorno-Karabakh, as the presence of Russian troops throughout the conquered territory gives Moscow the ability to expand its influence in the south Caucasus while simultaneously increasing its leverage over Armenia, as the short, five-year mandate for Russian peacekeepers keeps the specter of renewed fighting hanging over Pashinyan’s head.

Finally, the last issue that threatens to undermine the Russia-Turkey relationship is the conflict in Ukraine, where Turkish drones have been used to wreak havoc on Russian armored units. While, as mentioned above, Erdoğan has attempted to facilitate peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv, the war shows no signs of abating and Turkey has condemned the Russian invasion at the United Nations, threatening to damage the future relationship between Moscow and Ankara. Going forward, Erdoğan may try to continue to refrain from taking a side, but if Turkish drones continue to inflict casualties on Russian forces, and Ankara refuses to stop selling Ukraine new combat drones, it will certainly drive a wedge between the two countries. 

Erdoğan in Real Trouble

All of these aforementioned problems combine to put Erdoğan in a domestic and foreign policy bind. On one hand, Erdoğan wants to pursue Turkish interests and sovereignty, seeking economic gains and greater maneuvering space through Turkey’s interventions in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh. Furthermore, Erdoğan has attempted to aggressively pursue Turkey’s interests in Eastern Mediterranean gas projects in order to make the country more energy independent and economically robust. 

However, the ways in which he has gone about those goals made Erdoğan, if not a total pariah, then at least shunned in most Western circles, as Turkey abandoned its policy of “zero problems with our neighbors” somewhere between 2013-2015. While Turkey has been careful to try to preserve its ties with Russia, it has not refrained from voting against Russia at the UN, and has invoked Article 19 of the Montreux convention to restrict passage of military vessels through the Bosporus. However, Turkey has not yet joined in the Western sanctions on Russia, not only because it has ideological problems with the sanctions, but also because it can ill afford the economic hit due to the ongoing Turkish economic crisis

In some ways, Erdoğan is akin to a sports general manager who is coming off of several losing seasons and knows that he must make the playoffs or risk losing his job. In the same way, Erdoğan, facing elections next year—with a languishing economy, isolation from Europe due to Turkish behavior in the Mediterranean, and isolation from the U.S. due to the previously close relationship with Russia—must figure out a way to improve prospects for Turkey before the election arrives, or he risks losing to the rival Republican People’s Party. 

However, for Erdoğan, there are no easy answers, as he has demonstrated his unwillingness to accept the short-term economic pain that comes with raising interest rates—which would help to curb the rampant inflation present in the country. Nor has he accepted the idea of sending the Russian S-400 systems he received to Ukraine to appease the West and improve relations with the United States and NATO. In addition, Erdoğan must deal with the economic fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the resultant reduction in Russian and Ukrainian tourists to Turkey. Tourism—which represents approximately 4% of Turkish GDP—is a key economic lifeline that was hoped to generate up to $35 billion in revenue this year in a return to pre-COVID norms. What’s more, as mentioned in a recent article for the Al-Monitor, the global surge in oil prices hits Turkey especially hard, with every $10 rise in oil price adding $5 billion to Turkey’s current account deficit. Finally, food prices have skyrocketed globally, which, combined with Turkey’s 54% inflation rate, may lead to increasing food insecurity across Turkey.

As a result, Erdoğan may be in a no-win situation, ideologically constrained in his ability to end costly military campaigns in Syria and Libya, and stuck between an economic reliance on Russia on one hand and a security relationship with the West on the other. How he will be able to square the circle without ruining the relationship with one side or the other is almost impossible to see. However, the way out of Turkey’s dilemma will invariably come with painful strings attached. 

With war underway in Ukraine, Erdoğan must abandon the illusion that he can strike a successful balance between an aggressive Russia and an aggrieved West, and begin to take steps to bring Turkey back into the Western fold. To begin, his best first move would be to work with the U.S. and other NATO allies to find a way to either dispose of or mothball the Russian S-400 air defense system. Whether that involves the provision of U.S. Patriot batteries to Turkey, or Western support for the Turkish Siper air defense system, the two sides need to come to some sort of arrangement that keeps Russian missile defense out of Anatolia and Turkish Thrace. 

Furthermore, while it is unlikely that the U.S. will be able to do anything to diminish Erdoğan’s fears of a Kurdish insurgency in Turkey, the West needs to engage more with Turkey on resolving the ongoing crisis in Syria, working to launch, as has been recommended by the Middle East Institute’s Charles Lister, a, “‘freeze and build’ strategy for Syria, pivoting away from tactical emergency assistance and toward strategic stabilization and targeted rebuilding across areas of northern Syria not controlled by Assad’s regime,” as there is a chance for a quid pro quo with Ankara that focuses on aid and stabilization in northwest Syria, in the hopes of making the border with Turkey more secure. With the West down to one aid crossing into Syria, Turkey should be a key Western partner on the Syrian conflict, and with Russia distracted elsewhere, it could provide an opportunity for Turkey to work with the U.S. and Europe. 

However, the West may not view Erdoğan’s plight in nearly the same manner as he himself does. Indeed, Western governments may be holding out hope that Erdoğan’s poor policies in recent years will lead to a defeat at the polls so that the rival Republican People’s Party under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu takes over, giving the West a chance to repair relations with Ankara. 
Ultimately, with the war in Ukraine costing the Turkish economy an estimated $40 billion already, Erdoğan has few options, and nearly all of them are bad. With much of the situation brought on by his aggressive foreign policy in recent years, along with his disastrous management of the Turkish economy, Erdoğan will likely be desperate to turn things around in order to avoid defeat at the polls next year. However, it remains to be seen whether he will accept the painful decisions that will be necessary to reorient Turkey’s future in a positive direction. So far, all signs point to Erdoğan being unable to pull the trigger on such a realignment, which bodes poorly for Erdoğan, but even more poorly for the Turkish people in the years ahead.

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Demography as Destiny in the Sahel?

March 18, 2022

Twenty years ago, authors John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira wrote a book that would, for a few years at least, become highly influential in Democratic political circles and thinking. Their work, The Emerging Democratic Majority, posited, “that Democrats should take advantage of a set of interrelated social, economic, and demographic changes…” One of the main lessons that Democratic strategists took away from the book was that since the number of voters from racial minorities was increasing—and that many of these groups prefer Democrats to Republicans by a large margin—then demographic changes favor Democratic politicians over the long-term, giving them a structural advantage over their competitors in coming elections. However, the concept—which was eventually simplified into the Auguste Comte-ian formulation that, “demographics are destiny,”—was not only not so simple, but it turned out, not nearly as accurate as the others initially anticipated.

Despite the fact that demographics cannot so easily be used to peer into a country’s political future—and that there will invariably exist events that change how populations behave as they grow and expand—there is a certain truth to the fact that one cannot truly understand the trajectory of a country or a region without understanding the trajectory of its population growth. Similarly, just as Judis and Teixeira argued that Democrats simply could not just wait for incipient population changes to bolster their political fortunes, African leaders cannot simply wait and hope that a growing youth population will allow them to enter a “demographic window” that enables them to vault into the company of the World Bank’s “upper-middle income” countries. 

Using a demographic lens to look at the future trajectories of certain West African states, the Atlantic Council’s Richard Cincotta and Stephen Smith, in their paper, “What Future for the Western Sahel?: The region’s demography and its implications by 2045,” examine the region’s ongoing demographic crisis and the possible pathways to stability and prosperity. They note that while the region’s current fertility rates and population growth are not currently promising, there are states that are experiencing some success, and steps that each country could take to improve their chances to see a dividend from their growing, youthful populations. Therefore, it is useful to examine the entirety of the Atlantic Council report, situating it in the delicate overall regional context. 

Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/AC_What-future-for-the-Western-Sahel.pdf#page=20
Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/AC_What-future-for-the-Western-Sahel.pdf#page=20

Cincotta and Smith begin their paper by noting a number of key findings—starting with the fact that the Sahel remains one of the world’s most youthful regions, with 64.5% of the population below the age of twenty-five. However, despite that youth, no countries in the region are projected—by the United Nations Population Division’s medium-fertility projection—to reach the demographic window, which, as Cincotta notes in a 2017 commentary, is a period defined by: low proportion of children and seniors; high proportions of adults in the prime working ages of 25-55; workforce growth rates that have slowed to levels commensurate with job growth; and an average family size small enough for parents—and the state—to provide high levels of per-student investment. 

Without reaching that point, he notes, only a handful of countries: have attained World Bank upper-middle income status; have a childhood mortality rate below twenty-five deaths per thousand births; and have high levels of late-secondary school enrollment. As Cincotta notes in his 2017 commentary, most states’ trip through the demographic window is a one-time opportunity—though that can be extended by a babyboom, an influx of immigrants, or fertility remaining near replacement levels with low child mortality. However, as noted above, no regional countries are projected to reach this window in the next quarter century.

Somewhat relatedly, Cincotta and Smith’s second key finding is that the overall population of the six Western Sahelian nations of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad, has risen from just twenty-one million in 1960 to over 103 million today. Furthermore, the UN expects the region’s population—which includes the nearly seventy-eight million people living in the twelve sharia-law governed states of northern Nigeria—to grow from today’s 181 million to between a projected low of 370 million and a projected high of 415 million by 2045, with most of the growth driven by age-structural momentum and the region’s large youth population. 

Affecting these figures moving forward are a number of factors, including the region’s overall fertility rates, maternal and child health, girls’ education, women’s autonomy and rights, the slow growth of grain production and decline of pastoralism, regional security situations, and explosive urbanization. The authors also note that migration, which is impacted by all of these aforementioned pressures, has increased, as life in slums, drought, sustained regional conflict, and economic hardships push individuals towards leaving the Sahel for greener pastures in the rest of Africa or even Europe and North America. 

Furthermore, as noted in Hannes Weber’s 2012 paper, “Demography and democracy: the impact of youth cohort size on democratic stability in the world,” empirical findings support the idea that large numbers of young men have a deleterious impact on democratic stability, as, “young men are more likely to support political violence and the larger their relative number, the higher the probability for the rest of the population to adopt the same attitude.” Moreover, as noted by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies’ Daniel Eizenga in his 2019 paper, “Long Term Trends Across Security and Development in the Sahel,” countries in the Sahel, “remain the most problematic with regard to…health indicators [such as life expectancy, stunting and child mortality] for the West African region…Across the Sahel, nearly 40% of children under five years of age are stunted…”

Moving forward, the authors argue that in order to enter the demographic window, Western Sahelian countries need to see a decline in total fertility rate to at or below 2.8 children per woman, a process that usually takes between three and five decades to accomplish. Moreover, the authors note that in addition to receiving economic dividends from passing through the development window, countries that have not yet passed through the window typically experience more instability, scoring lower on government effectiveness

Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/AC_What-future-for-the-Western-Sahel.pdf#page=21
Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/AC_What-future-for-the-Western-Sahel.pdf#page=21

As noted in the May 2018 UN Support Plan for the Sahel, between 2007 and 2015, international aid and development support to the ten countries of the Sahel (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal) rose by 22%, peaking at $11.2 billion in 2015, with annual development assistance to the six states of the Western Sahel averaging around $2.3 billion per year during the period between 2012-2018. Despite this outside funding, states and individuals in the region still struggle with adequate nutrition, deficiencies in the provision of basic public goods, and escalating regional violence, which causes rampant displacement and chaos, all of which creates an environment ripe for military takeovers.

Elements of a Crisis

The authors note that there are a number of factors illustrating the region’s problems, from the extremely low (5-10%) contraception usage rates in Chad and northern Nigeria, to the fact that Niger Mali, and Chad possess the highest levels of adolescent childbearing in the world. Furthermore, despite the fact that more than one in fifteen women can expect to die from pregnancy or childbearing in Chad, total fertility rates have stayed high. Coupled with the low rates of contraception usage, it means the region is unlikely to see the decline in births needed to enter into the demographic window anytime in the near future. 

Furthermore, Cincotta and Smith argue that programs that have effectively caused a decline in fertility in eastern Africa have not received the same degree of support in the Sahel, with major gaps seen between the two regions’ achievements in girls’ educational attainment and effective family planning efforts. The authors argue that these two areas are the most critical policy responses that governments need to get right when attempting to lower fertility rates. However, despite some progress, not enough has been accomplished on either issue, which will impede any efforts to lower the rate of population growth in the region’s countries. 

The United Nations Children’s Fund, in a 2020 report, “Child Marriage in the Sahel,” notes that child marriage is just as prevalent in the region as it was a quarter century ago; the entire Sahel region is home to over twenty million child brides; and over half of the young women in the Sahel married in childhood. Moreover, the UNICEF report notes that six in ten child brides in the region give birth before the age of eighteen, with nearly 90% giving birth before age twenty. As a result, 95% of married adolescent girls in the Sahel do not attend school. As the Global Partnership to End Child Marriage notes in a piece on ending child marriage in the Sahel, “the longer a girl stays in school, the less likely she is to be married before the age of 18 and have children during her teenage years. With education, a girl gains the skills and opportunities to lift her and her family out of poverty, and she gains the knowledge and confidence to choose the future she wants.” 

Throughout the region, family planning efforts are generally underfunded and understaffed, which also impedes efforts to lower birth rates, though countries such as Burkina Faso have, “made significant strides in increasing access to [family planning] services,” and, “nearly all health facilities provide five or more modern contraceptive measures,” according to a 2020 report from USAID. However, despite these improvements, even in Burkina Faso there exist financial barriers to receiving family planning services—even with subsidies—as well as cultural barriers—such as family planning being associated with infidelity and a lack of female decision-making power regarding their health and fertility. 

Moreover, the Atlantic Council authors argue that regional politicians fear political blowback from working to enhance women’s rights and family planning, with a 2009 effort in Mali protested by the country’s High Islamic Council and over 50,000 people in the capital of Bamako demonstrating the general level of pushback from the public. Complicating the regional situation even further are fertility gaps between different ethnic groups, along with differences in fertility rates between those living in urban environments and those still dependent on farming and pastoralism to earn a living.

To illustrate their point, the authors offer up the case of Niger, where more than 90% of the population lives on less than $5 per day, and more than 40% live on less than $1 per day. In that country, the female mean age of first marriage is stuck at just under sixteen years of age, and the country has among the highest maternal mortality rates in the world. Despite these factors, Niger still has the world’s highest rate of total fertility, and already nearly 70% of the country’s fifteen to twenty-four year olds are not in education, employment, or training (NEET). To make matters worse, it is estimated that by 2045, the population of children, adolescents, and young adults is projected to expand the country’s “prime-aged” (ages 25-54) workforces to nearly three times its current level, further exacerbating the unemployment situation. 

Rural Transformation and the Sahelian Exodus

The authors then proceed to look at the impact that population growth and climate change have had on the region’s agricultural expansion, as well as the flight of millions into the region’s cities, not to mention those that fled the region due to these demographic, economic, and climate pressures. Cincotta and Smith note that the past thirty years has brought unprecedented agricultural expansion to the region, with rain-fed cropland displacing the savanna that previously was the region’s most dominant cover type. However, even assuming slowed growth under the UN’s low-fertility projections, the Sahel will see a relative explosion in total population. Therefore, despite the expansion of agriculture in the region, more is needed to be done to revitalize the region’s arable land, with the authors noting that in the future, the region will need more irrigation, an expansive regional agricultural trade network, and frequent infusions of foreign food aid just to meet its food needs. 

Source: https://eros.usgs.gov/westafrica/agriculture-expansion
Source: https://eros.usgs.gov/westafrica/agriculture-expansion

Further complicating the future food situation are the problems facing pastoralists. In a region where 75% of the land has become too arid to allow livestock herders to remain in one place with their flocks, millions of Sahelian cattle-herders are forced to seasonally move their animals from one place to another while seeking water and grazing land, leading to conflict between those that rely on water-fed agriculture and those that rely on traveling cattle herds. While there is certainly more that the international community should be doing to make it safer for pastoralists to move about their cattle, regional governments must also do more to improve their own relations with pastoralist communities. Those communities, as noted in a July 2021 paper by Matthew Pflaum published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), “often remain marginalised and encounter significant tensions with governments despite contributing significantly to economies across much of Africa…Herding is often not recognised by national laws as a legitimate form of productive land use, and Sahelian states commonly do not acknowledge the specific nature of pastoral land use and/or do not actively create policies and institutions to protect rangelands and areas for grazing for pastoralist herds.” Furthermore, Pflaum’s paper notes that governments often paint pastoralist communities as problematic because they operate outside of state security and administrative frameworks. 

These facts not only combine to limit the economic opportunities of regional cattle herders, but, as noted elsewhere in the OECD paper, “pastoralists have become associated with militancy and extremism in the past two decades, and have also become involved in vicious cycles of inter-communal violence. Some militant and religious extremist groups have recruited heavily from pastoralist communities, whether because the areas in which they operate are predominantly pastoralist…or because local pastoralists are susceptible to recruitment due to grievances and tensions…” Finally, as noted in a 2020 paper prepared for NATO’s Southern Hub, “despite their large share of the population and their economic importance, most pastoralists receive limited public services in the peripheral areas they inhabit, resulting in low access to education and high rates of malnutrition.” The NATO paper also notes that, “leading research on pastoral insecurity has concluded that the more a state loses the trust of its citizens, and the more the state presence shrinks in a region, the more Non-State Armed Groups (NSAG) take over control.”

Urban Transformation

Further complicating the situation in the Sahel is not only the region’s exploding urban population—with urban residents expected to be nearly 50% of the Sahel’s population by 2045—but the fact that approximately 70% of those urban residents live in houses without access to water and sanitation; ample living space; or sturdy materials for roofs, walls, and floors. Moreover, as a recent World Bank report on urbanization in Niger noted, “without accelerating investment in urban areas, urban benefits will vanish,” and that, “progress on providing access to improve water and sanitation is not keeping up with the rapid pace of urbanization.” 

Overall, without improved access to water, housing, education, health, and sanitation services, the perception of local government effectiveness will remain low. Indeed, in a recent OECD paper by Abel Schumann, which surveyed West Africans on their perceptions about life in urban areas, less than 40% of respondents agreed that their vote in local elections makes a difference in how their city is governed. If regional governments and international donors were to invest more, an urban transformation could improve lives for families and create the kind of urban job market and education opportunities that will create space for greater female autonomy and hopefully lower fertility rates. 

Examples to Emulate

Cincotta and Smith then proceed to offer up four examples of where regional states have made progress in addressing their increasing demographic challenges. For instance, in Tunisia, the authors note that independence leader and Tunisia’s first President Habib Bourguiba’s party, not long after independence, instituted a package of reforms which compelled parents to send their daughters to school; raised the legal age of marriage; prohibited polygamy; and mandated that women were permitted to work outside the home. While there was opposition to these reforms, and there is still more to be done in terms of women’s rights in the country, the use of modern contraceptives in Tunisia had reached over 50%, and fertility rate declined from nearly seven children per woman in 1960 to just over two children per woman in 2019. However, no state outside of Rwanda currently has a leader that exercises similar top-down authority as Bourguiba did in the 1960s, meaning that it is unlikely such sweeping reforms will be seen in other regional states. That said, the lessons from Tunisia’s expansion of women’s rights does illustrate how countries in the region can help enter the demographic window, if they are willing to adjust some major social policies. 

In Botswana, which has also seen its fertility rate fall from over 6.5 children per woman to just 2.8 in 2019, a decentralized health care system, as well as integrated family planning and reproductive services have combined to reduce the frequency of marriage and pregnancy among adolescent girls, as well as to lengthen the time in between when a woman gives birth. All of this has combined to increase girls’ educational attainment and led to one of the world’s poorest countries at its independence in 1966 becoming an upper middle-income country in 2005, with eyes set on becoming a high-income country by 2036. 

Bangladesh—which took a community-based approach to health services provision—has been able to become one of the countries on track to achieve the UN’s Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on maternal health and child mortality. As noted by Shams El Arifeen, Aliki Christou, Laura Reichenbach, Ferdous Arfina Osman, Kishwar Azad, Khaled Shamsul Islam, Faruque Ahmed, Henry B Perry, and David H Peter in a 2013 article for the medical journal the Lancet, the country’s “commitment to expansion of access to priority basic health services, and willingness to experiment with delivery strategies and technologies at the community level, and to scale-up the most successful methods in partnership with NGOs and the private sector, has enabled Bangladesh to achieve remarkable coverage levels of interventions.” Demonstrating that commitment, Cincotta and Smith note that in 1975, Bangladesh’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare began a collaboration with the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research Bangladesh (ICDDR, B) to begin distributing contraceptives along with immunization services and oral rehydration therapy. Later, in 1982, the program added other family health services, including vaccinations. The result was that, “women in the family planning project had fewer children, spread farther apart,” and that, “As families got smaller, public investments in education and health went further and adult children remained close to home, starting businesses and further benefiting the economy.”

Finally, in the East African nations of Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, and Rwanda, governments have taken what has been learned elsewhere in Africa, Asia, and Latin America to design their own programming responses. For instance, taking a page from Bangladesh, Ethiopia trained cadres of its own local, predominantly female, health workers who provide health services in the country’s farmlands, pastoral land, and low-income urban households for nearly two decades. While there have been notable successes, including in family planning and immunization, there are arguments to be made that such programs do not do much to create good working and living conditions for those female healthcare workers, and more needs to be done to actually pay most of these women. 

Furthermore, the authors note that Rwanda and Malawi have adopted similar community health delivery systems, which, while achieving some success, may still experience some of the same troubles that Ethiopia has. Finally, in Kenya, which has focused on improving the access to quality health services through public/private partnerships, the government’s National Hospital Insurance Fund contracts with the private sector to subsidize access to private care. However, some have noted that increasing the private sector’s role in health care delivery will, “divert more public money to private actors without eliminating high costs, aligning private interests with public health goals, or addressing exclusion in the private sector.”

In all four East African countries, while contraceptive use has risen from below 10% of married women aged 15-49 to just above 50% today, contraceptive discontinuation rates remain high, and wide gaps exist in pre- and post-natal care between low and higher income women. Therefore, there still is some way to go before East Africa becomes a true model for the future of the Sahel. 

Possible Futures

Ultimately, the Atlantic Council authors envision three different paths that Sahelian countries could take in the coming years. In the first hypothetical future, which Cincotta and Smith label, “more of the same ”, the European Union signs an agreement for expanded aid to regional governments in exchange for restrictions on out-migration, and governments use that money to pay stay-at-home mothers, and to subsidize child health care and education. In such a scenario, girls’ educational attainment and contraceptive use rises moderately, though states make little real efforts to expand women’s rights or curb the male-dominated system that allows for adolescent marriages and childbearing. Therefore, while the situation for women and girls would improve marginally, little would be done to help Sahelian states enter the demographic window and achieve upper-middle income.

In a more positive theoretical future, which the authors refer to as “breakthrough”, states see a massive decline in total fertility rates, with Senegal and Burkina Faso seeing fertility rates fall below three children per woman, with fertility declining closer to two-children-per woman in urban areas. However, despite a slowdown in population growth, increasing climate change and jihadist violence keep the food situation in the region precarious.

Finally, in a scenario the authors refer to as “downward spiral”, the region sees Somalia-like state failure and infighting among warlords in Mali and Chad, further exacerbating regional security conditions and permitting the explosion of jihadist violence. With a lack of government and donor efforts to curb population growth, development stagnates and violence and anarchy would rule the region.

To prevent these futures from happening, the authors propose a number of changes that regional governments and international donors could make, starting with the need to expand urban service provision so that more young Sahelians get the education they need to obtain a well-earning job that keep them away from jihadist groups. In addition, the authors propose that states increase funding for girls’ education and family planning, both to decrease fertility rates as well as to improve economic outcomes for girls and women. Relatedly, the authors argue that more needs to be done to improve women’s rights in the region, including the banning of female genital mutilation and forced child marriage. To get to a place where that is possible, Cincotta and Smith argue, Sahelian states need to work with respected religious and political figures, as well as involve men. Without mass buy-in, especially from men in the region, these programs are unfortunately unlikely to succeed. Furthermore, the authors argue that more needs to be done to provide education and family planning services to marginalized minority communities, as well as to promote women-centered efforts in agricultural, economic, and infrastructure development projects. 

The Atlantic Council report also advocates that regional governments consider enforcing schemes that restrict absentee rangeland users and protect rangelands from further agricultural encroachment to help aid pastoralists struggling to find space to feed and water their cattle. Relatedly, the authors also promote the development of industries that add value to agriculture and livestock production, to aid those 20 million Sahelians that rely on pastoralism and farming for the majority of their income. These changes are vital because, as noted in early December 2021 by the United Nations, “almost 36 million people [in West Africa and Sahel] are expected to be acutely food insecure by the time next year’s lean season comes around,” which could be as early as this month. Furthermore, the 36 million people figure is a 24% increase over 2020, and the World Food Program is already calling for nearly $700 million to assist individuals in the region with food support for the next six months. 

Finally, the last recommendation made by the authors is that regional governments need to protect development gains with investments in local security. In regions where governments roll-out development plans that incorporate lessons from Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere in Africa, states may see an uptick in jihadist violence targeting those programs, as such extremist groups routinely possess negative views of women’s rights and female empowerment in Africa. If Sahelian governments are going to try out new, progressive strategies, they need to be ready for any potential violence that may come with it. 

Final Thoughts

Overall, the Sahel is a region in a precarious position. It is a region experiencing explosive population growth, severe food insecurity, and surging extremist violence. If regional governments and international donors wish to see Sahelian states enter the demographic window and make the transition to becoming upper-middle income countries, there will not only need to be changes in how services are provided, but there will need to be an overall increase in the amount of funding put into community health services, family planning, and support to those that make their livelihood in agriculture or cattle-herding. 

As Philip Carter III and Bisa Williams recently wrote in a piece for the Hill, “jihadists threats, poverty, climate change, and COVID have left the region’s people clamoring for solutions. Their frustration is reflected by military juntas ousting democratically elected regimes, including in Burkina Faso on January 23,” and that, “cutting across all of [the region’s] risk factors, exacerbating them and arguably driving many of them, is the Sahel’s rapid population growth.” 

In truth, as presently constructed, the region’s governments are failing not only women and youth, but ultimately all Sahelians. Therefore, regional governments, along with regional economic communities and multilateral organizations—such as ECOWAS and the African Union—need to do more to promote the benefits of girls’ education and women’s rights; end child marriage; improve the overall regional security situation while not overly militarizing the response; address climate change; and to address the rising extremist violence that threatens to overwhelm the region. In addition, international donors need to do more to fund development projects in the region, specifically working to address the large public-sector funding gap, which remains at 36.2% of required resources in the Sahel. If donors want to see positive, long-term results, international funding not only needs to remain consistent, it needs to focus on agriculture, education, and reproductive health over securitized responses to violence.

Source: UNDESA/Population Division, 2019/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/population-boom-unstable-sahel-could-result-wave-migration-europe/

If UN population growth estimates are even remotely close, the population in the Sahel will grow to between 370-415 million by 2045, inflaming tensions and making an already tough to live in area that much more difficult.  If regional governments and the Sahel’s major international partners are unable to address their issues, and the region’s population continues growing at an exponential rate, Sahelian states will be unable to reap the “demographic dividend” that countries passing through the demographic window usually receive on their way to upper-middle income status. Such a scenario would condemn those countries to further violence, poverty, and food insecurity as farmers and pastoralists struggle to make a living and the population of urban centers explodes, while public service provision remains weak and prospects for women and girls remain dim. 

As Cincotta and Elizabeth Leahy laid out in a special report for the Wilson Center back in 2006, “about 86 percent of all countries that experience a new outbreak of civil conflict had age structures with 60 percent or more of the population younger than 30 years of age.” Therefore, if more is not done to address the region’s population boom, while also addressing the underlying cause of jihadist violence in the region, the Sahel is not only doomed to repeat its recent history of violence, civil unrest, and coups, but that situation will only worsen as the population swells, making life difficult for the hundreds of millions of individuals leaving there, and putting migratory pressures on not only the rest of Africa, but Europe and North America as well. 


It is therefore in the vital national interests of Western states to recognize the issues facing the people of the Sahel and to do more to help rectify those problems. Otherwise, the European Union, and its European Border and Coast Guard Agency of the European Union (Frontex), will find that Operations Mare Nostrum, Triton, and Themis—which tackled the growing migration issues in the Mediterranean—will be just the tip of the migratory iceberg. Furthermore, European governments will find that they will have wished they did more to address the Sahel’s population boom and help regional countries enter into the demographic window today—before the region’s explosive population growth makes today’s problems look like a veritable walk in the park. The region’s demographics may not be the sole determinant of the Sahel’s ultimate fate, but if more is not done—by local governments and international donors—to aid the region’s people, the Sahel’s destiny may not be the positive one that Africa, Europe, and the rest of the world vitally needs.

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The Russian War in Ukraine: A Truly Global Problem

March 11, 2022

In today’s globally interconnected world, war and strife in one part of the Earth can, and often does, have an enormous impact not only on the immediate region, but the rest of the planet. Indeed, the effects of the war even reach beyond the Earth, as well. While the majority of U.S. coverage of the crisis has focused on its impact on the United States, Russia, or Ukraine, the conflict has had an unavoidable impact on the rest of the world, as sanctions and votes at the United Nations force countries to either take a side or remain conspicuous in their neutrality. As the conflict continues, with no end in sight, it is useful to examine the impact that the first few weeks of the conflict have had on countries around the world, from China and Turkey to Brazil and Kenya. 

To that end, the best place to begin would be a March 4 piece from the International Crisis Group, “The Ukraine War: A Global Crisis?” from Amanda Hsiao, Praveen Donthi, Dina Esfandiary, Ali Vaez, Naysan Rafati, Nigar Göksel, Mairav Zonszein, Murithi Mutiga, Piers Pigou, Falko Ernst, Mariano de Alba, and Richard Gowan. The piece aimed to examine the international reaction to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine through the lens of individual countries’ votes on the UN General Assembly demanding that Russia immediately end its military operations in Ukraine. While only five countries—including Belarus, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Eritrea, Syria, and Russia—voted against the resolution calling for Russia to, “immediately, completely, and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders,” thirty-five more countries abstained from the vote, which demonstrates that there still exists some major divisions between the United States, Europe, and a number of their international partners. Therefore, using the Crisis Group report as a springboard, it is a good idea to look at the truly international impact of the crisis in Ukraine. 

Asian Reactions and Implications

The Crisis group authors smartly begin with a look at the United Nations votes of China and India, who both abstained from condemning Russia’s actions, albeit for divergent reasons. While it is rather unsurprising that China abstained at the General Assembly—after already having abstained at the Security Council to allow Russia to veto a draft resolution deploring their invasion of Ukraine—the cover Beijing provides for Moscow remains troubling, and a major barrier to concerted international action on the conflict. The Crisis Group authors note that in its votes at the UN, China desires to live up to its professed “no-limits” friendship with Russia; to maintain its already deteriorating ties with Europe; and to maintain the inviolability of states’ territorial integrity. While noting the invasion’s potential implications for China’s own relationship with Taiwan, the Crisis Group authors argue that, ultimately, the Ukraine crisis does not affect core Chinese interests, and therefore Beijing will likely remain risk-averse and largely above the fray, looking to avoid anything that would further impede the economic relationship with European nations. 

To that end, on February 25, Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell, and French President Emmanuel Macron, outlining China’s position on the Ukraine crisis in five main points. Those points essentially stated that China respects the UN Charter’s requirements on safeguarding states’ sovereignty and territorial integrity; that it advocates a cooperative and sustainable security, though not through the expansion of large alliance networks like NATO; that it believes that all parties to the Ukraine issue need to exercise restraint; that it encourages a diplomatic and peaceful resolution to the crisis; and that China believes the UN Security Council should play a constructive role through the facilitation of a diplomatic solution rather than the use of force or sanctions. While such rhetorical support for a diplomatic solution is somewhat boilerplate language for a country with little to gain in the crisis, the fact that China continues to give Russia moral and political cover—by espousing the notion that Russia’s actions were brought on as a result of NATO expansion—is troubling and demonstrates Beijing’s belief that the West brought this crisis upon itself

However, while the Crisis Group report notes that China’s top banking regulator has publicly stated that China would not take part in Western financial sanctions, and may even attempt to assist Moscow with an economic helping hand later—despite potential difficulties—there is a strong argument to be made that despite China’s abstentions, the crisis in Ukraine may be doing a good deal to drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow. As the Center for a New American Security’s (CNAS) Andrea Kendall-Taylor said during a February 23 discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on, “What’s Next for the China-Russia Relationship?”, while the China partnership may embolden Putin to be aggressive in Ukraine, that very same aggression, somewhat paradoxically, deepens already existing fissures in the relationship.

In the discussion, Kendall-Taylor points out that a major difference between Russia and China is Beijing’s taste for risk and destabilizing actions, which undermine international institutions and international law. As Fareed Zakaria recently noted in an interview with Ezra Klein of the New York Times, China, “benefits enormously from international stability, from international order, even from international institutions…China’s number one principle for the last 20 years, and what it criticizes the U.S. for, is state sovereignty, the inviolability of state sovereignty. Which is why this whole business with Russia invading Ukraine has been so awkward for Beijing.” Therefore, while the West should not look to Beijing to immediately do anything to punish Moscow for its escalation in Ukraine, it should consistently message China that further deepening their relationship with an unpredictable Russia will hinder China’s reputation for prudent international behavior. 

In terms of India’s abstention at the UN General Assembly, the Crisis Group authors argue that New Delhi’s decision was motivated by a realist worldview, which resists being caught in between NATO countries and Russia on security issues. Russia and India already possess a strong relationship in the defense sector—with between 60-70% and as much as 85% of Indian defense equipment being procured from Russia—and in December 2021, the two countries announced an expansion of security ties, including the Indian purchase of S-400 missile defense systems, despite the already growing tensions near Ukraine. 

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/9/infographic-which-countries-buy-the-most-russian-weapons

As noted by CSIS’ Richard M. Rossow in a March 1 commentary, while, “India has managed to maintain close relations with Russia while dramatically improving strategic ties with the United States…Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made this position hard to maintain.” Rossow further notes in a March 2 discussion on, “The Ukraine Crisis and Asia: Implications and Responses,” that while, “non-alignment certainly still remains the name of the game in Delhi,” and that, “India avoiding taking a hard line on Russia…[is] not terribly surprising,” India is in a bind, stuck between its commitments to a free, open rules-based international order and a $2 billion a year reliance on spare Russian military equipment. 

While, in prior years, the U.S. has been understanding of Indian reliance on Moscow for weapons and equipment—with the Crisis Group authors noting that Russia is a key part of India’s strategy to protect against China in the same way that India is a part of the Western strategy to protect against China—it does not mean that it is immune to criticism, and New Delhi will have to work carefully to avoid angering U.S. lawmakers who could impose CAATSA sanctions on India in light of their S-400 procurement. While such sanctions are unlikely to be imposed on such a key U.S. ally, it does show the extent to which the Ukraine crisis can drive a wedge between even Quad partners. Furthermore, the crisis demonstrates that more needs to be done on the U.S. and EU’s part to wean India off of its dependency on Russian arms as well as to strengthen the EU-India relationship in terms of security.

Another Asian country directly affected by the crisis in Ukraine is Pakistan, which has seen relations with the U.S. deteriorate following the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s state visit to Moscow during the outset of the invasion on February 24 was highlighted for its awkward timing—and the implication that the Prime Minister’s presence conferred Pakistan’s blessing on Russia’s military adventure—and Khan returned home rather empty handed, with only deals to buy Russian gas and wheat. Furthermore, critics were left skeptical of the agreement in light of Western sanctions. Moreover, while Khan has rejected Western pressure to support the UN General Assembly resolution condemning the Russian aggression, his criticism of the West may be more about shoring up support in the Pakistani Parliament as his opposition moves forward a vote of no-confidence due to the Prime Minister’s poor handling of the economy and poor governance. 

That having been said, Pakistan would be wise to consider its rhetoric in light of the economic relationship the country has with the West as well as with Russia. As noted elsewhere, Pakistani exports to the UK, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, Canada, Poland, and Portugal—all of which voted for the measure condemning Russia at the UN General Assembly—total around $8 billion per year, while Pakistan’s exports to the U.S. total just under $4 billion per year. Meanwhile, exports to Russia in 2019 were only $277 million, a major difference for a Pakistan that is vitally dependent on its exports for economic growth. As the Crisis Group authors point out, with a trade deficit over $30 billion, Pakistan cannot afford to become further reliant on a Russia under massive international sanctions, as Moscow would be in no position to assist Pakistan. With Khan rumored to have already lost the support of the Pakistani military, he is in a delicate position, and with Pakistan’s abstention at the General Assembly, it all serves to only further Khan’s isolation, further clouding the picture in Islamabad.

The Middle East and Turkey

The Crisis Group report then proceeds to analyze the votes of the countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), noting that all of them voted for the resolution condemning Russia, though the United Arab Emirates did abstain from an earlier Security Council vote condemning the invasion. Here, the authors point out that despite improving ties with Russia, GCC countries still have had to balance their reliance on the U.S. security umbrella with a desire to keep relations with Moscow stable. As it is, the UAE, Oman, and Qatar already import huge amounts of wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and while ample grain storage is unlikely to make disruptions from the war a problem in the short-term, it is simply another factor that further complicates the relationship.

Source: https://agsiw.org/what-the-ukraine-crisis-means-for-gulf-economies/

Illuminating the push and pull was the UAE’s abstention at the Security Council, which was almost immediately repaid by Moscow, as Russia’s support for an arms embargo on the Houthis in Yemen was seen by some as a quid pro quo for Abu Dhabi’s vote at the UN. Further illustrating the impact of the tug-of-war between the West and Russia was Saudi Arabia, which did vote in favor of condemning Russia’s invasion at the General Assembly, but reiterated its commitment to the OPEC+ production quotas as part of its agreement with Russia. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has resisted Western entreaties for the region to produce more oil to offset Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas. While a Western diplomat in Riyadh is quoted as saying, “The feedback that we got from the Saudis is that they see the OPEC+ agreement with Russia as a long-term commitment and they are not ready yet to endanger that cooperation … while making it clear that they stand with the West when it comes to security cooperation,” the Crisis Group authors note that the damage to the relationship with the West may have already been done by Gulf States’ reticence to get in line with immediate condemnations of the invasion. Moving forward, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE want the U.S. and Europe to provide them with more weapons for the war in Yemen, GCC countries will have to realize that they will find it increasingly difficult to walk the fine line between the West and Russia on Ukraine. 

Like the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Israel also voted for the resolution, but for largely different reasons. Israel, like GCC countries, maintains relations with both the West and Russia, though the relationship was much closer during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s time in office—especially when Israel refused to join a vote censuring the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea and Donbas. In recent days, Prime Minister Naftali Bennet has tried to continue Israel’s delicate balancing act, attempting to mediate with Putin and Russia, with the thanks of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. However, with Israel concerned that their condemnation of the invasion could lead to Russia increasing its arms sales to Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon, the authors note that the country will increasingly find it hard to stay on the sidelines, though Israel does have a record of placing national security issues above its concerns about possible antisemitism.

Another major Middle East player is Iran, which abstained on the General Assembly resolution condemning the Russian invasion. While President Raisi echoed Russian talking points— blaming NATO expansion on the crisis, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also said that the “root cause” of the crisis can be laid at the feet of Western powers—Iran cannot be happy about Russian demands regarding the JCPOA and sanctions exemptions possibly sabotaging the deal’s return when it is finally nearing completion. The Crisis Group authors note that if talks break down now, the U.S. and EU might begin to shift towards a more coercive diplomacy, with Iran’s nuclear stockpile emerging as yet another area of dangerous contestation between Russia and the West. While further proliferation of nuclear weapons is not in either the U.S. nor Russia’s interest, Iran’s isolation after President Trump withdrew from JCPOA led to Tehran’s increased reliance on China and Russia for trade. Ultimately, while Russia may strongly dislike nuclear weapons in Iran, it may decide that increased trade, especially in light of increasing Western sanctions, may be worth the long-term risks. 

Finally, the authors look at Turkey, which voted in favor of the UN General Assembly resolution, but which also has to walk a fine line in regards to the Ukraine conflict. Turkey’s economy not only relies on large numbers of Russian tourists every year, but Russia has been one of Turkey’s most important trade partners in recent years, with over $30 billion in total trade volume between the two sides in 2021. Furthermore, Turkey has, in recent years, procured Russian missile defense systems, damaging relations with the U.S. 

However, over Ukraine, Russia and Turkey have taken different sides, with Ankara supporting Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity and strongly condemning the Russian seizure of Crimea. While Turkey’s Erdoğan has made repeated attempts to mediate the crisis and attempted to position Turkey as a neutral actor, the country still has condemned the Russian invasion, calling it a war, and implementing the Montreux Convention as to somewhat restrict the passage of warships into the Black Sea. Finally, complicating matters even further is the fact that Ankara must worry about Russian backlash in Syria, where Moscow might punish Turkey by ratcheting up pressure on Idlib, forcing large numbers of refugees into Turkey and then into Europe. Ultimately, the crisis may bring Ankara and NATO closer together, especially as the two sides coordinate on the response to the invasion, as a Russian victory that sees Moscow gaining an even greater hand in the Black Sea may only exacerbate pre-existing Turkish fears of the Black Sea becoming, “a Russian lake.”

African Reactions to the Russian Aggression

Source: https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/ukraine/ukraine-war-global-crisis

Continued Russian aggression towards Ukraine does not just have a regional impact, but has global reverberations. In Africa, reaction to the Russian actions in Ukraine were mixed, with twenty-eight states supporting the resolution, fifteen abstaining, and Eritrea voting against. While it has been pointed out that the global south has mostly declined to take a side in the current crisis for various reasons, it is important to look at the reasons why this is the case. For instance, the Crisis Group’s report begins its look at Africa through the lens of Kenya, a non-permanent UN Security Council member which did support the UN General Assembly resolution. The country, which has taken a stand against the Russian invasion, argues that Ukraine’s situation echoes its own past, when Africa’s borders were not drawn in Nairobi or Addis Ababa but imperial capitals in London and Paris. 

Ultimately, the country feels that it has to take a stand for the territorial integrity of smaller countries that are often at the mercy of their larger, more powerful neighbors. As Kenya’s Ambassador to the UN, Martin Kimani stated in a February 22 speech to the Security Council, “Kenya registers its strong concern and opposition to the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. We further strongly condemn the trend in the last few decades of powerful states, including members of this Security Council, breaching international law with little regard. Multilateralism lies on its deathbed tonight. It has been assaulted today as it has been by other powerful states in the past.” However, as Kimani’s statement makes clear, it is not just Russia that Kenya views as an imperialist nation with little regard for smaller countries rights and sovereignty, but the U.S. as well. Moreover, Western sanctions on Russia are likely to further restrict already burgeoning trade between Russia and Kenya, further complicating Kenya’s decision. To that end, the Crisis Group authors note that while Nairobi has called out the Russian aggression in this case, it is likely that in the future, the country will strive to occupy more of a middle ground, calling for an end to the invasion, but refraining from supporting the use of sanctions, frustrating U.S. and European interlocutors. 

Acting in a more ambivalent manner than Kenya was South Africa, which abstained from the UN resolution condemning Russia. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa defended his country’s decision, arguing that the proposed resolution did not do enough to call for meaningful engagement between Ukraine and Russia on a peaceful resolution of the issue. While Praetoria did eventually call on Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, it also has to walk a fine line with Russia, with which it has a long history of economic and military cooperation. Ultimately, the Crisis Group authors argue that Praetoria will likely take its cue from the rest of the continent as well as the G7 and China, with an approach that ultimately urges a diplomatic resolution of the crisis. 

As mentioned above, though just over half of African nations backed the UN resolution condemning Russian aggression, many of their governments have acted cautiously towards Moscow. The Crisis Group report notes that not only does Russia possess historical ties with Africa dating back to Soviet support for national liberation movements in the ‘50s and ‘60s, it has developed strong trade ties with many countries on the continent in recent years, with total trade between Russia and Africa surpassing U.S. trade with the continent. Primarily, African leaders are likely to be concerned about the conflict’s impact on inflation and global energy prices, as well as the thousands of African students trapped in Ukraine. While many governments are unlikely to take a stand on the issue, seeing little benefit, certain regional economic communities—like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)—did issue a communique condemning the Russian invasion. 

South American Reactions and Impact

Finally, the Crisis Group report closes by looking at the impact of the crisis on Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela, where the first two voted in favor of the resolution, while the third, Venezuela, remained suspended over non-payment of UN dues. 

While Brazilian Foreign Minister Carlos Franca said on March 8 that the country would not take sides in the conflict, it has already voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the General Assembly. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro—who had already been criticized by the West for meeting with Putin and voicing “solidarity” with Russia in the leadup to the war—has noted that Russian fertilizers are key for the country’s massive agribusiness sector and likely will not want to upset the relationship with Moscow. Furthermore, Western sanctions on Russian fertilizer are likely to affect Brazil’s soy production, one of the country’s major sources of income. With an election looming and Bolsonaro’s main opponent either remaining silent about Russia’s invasion, or condemning the U.S. and NATO for causing the crisis, Bolsonaro will also have to straddle the razor’s edge, avoiding criticism of Russia so as to not damage his country’s economy ahead of the October polls, while still avoiding further rebukes from the U.S.

In Mexico, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador had initially intended to continue strengthening his country’s ties with Russia, but the crisis has put a pause on the relationship which has seen Russia supply Mexico with needed COVID-19 vaccine. While the Crisis Group report argues that López Obrador criticized “all invasions”, he has avoided directly condemning Putin’s actions, and Mexico has in fact declined to impose sanctions on Russia for its provocative actions towards Ukraine, nor will it send any arms to Ukraine to defend against the invasion. As with other countries, especially those in the Global South, Mexico has had to deal with rampant inflation since the pandemic, a situation that will only be made more challenging with the ongoing war in Ukraine. Therefore, it is likely that López Obrador will be keen to thread the needle, aggravating neither its powerful northern neighbor, nor jeopardizing its place as Russia’s number two trading partner in Latin America. 

Finally, the Crisis Group report closes with a look at how the Ukraine crisis has affected Venezuela, a longstanding Russian partner in Latin America. While Venezuela was unable to vote on the UN General Assembly resolution—as its voting rights are currently suspended over the non-payment of dues—it has become an important player in the global reaction to the Ukraine crisis, primarily because of the fact that it is home to the largest reserves of oil in the world. As such, Venezuela, like Iran, has become a key player in the global economy as the West looks to cut off its supply of Russian oil and find replacement sources. While the U.S. has previously tied any concessions on sanctions to progress on the Maduro governments negotiations with the country’s opposition, pressure has been building for the Biden administration to reciprocate Venezuela’s recent release of American prisoners in the hopes that a deal can be struck to increase Venezuela’s oil production and alleviate rising gas prices in the U.S. As noted by the Crisis Group authors, while the Maduro government will likely try to rhetorically remain supportive of Moscow, it will not want to do anything that could jeopardize future U.S. concessions, meaning that the government will have to be extremely cautious moving forward on the Ukraine file.

Europe and Beyond

While the Crisis Group’s report does provide an excellent look at both the international reaction and impact of the Ukraine crisis in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, in today’s world of global interconnections, a war in Europe has worldwide ramifications. Specifically, as has been noted by the European Council on Foreign Relations’ (ECFR) Pawel Zerka, the war in Ukraine is a test for Europe, as well. While countries such as Austria and Germany reacted with surprising firmness, with Austria co-sponsoring the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia and condemning Russian attacks on civilians—which it referred to as war crimes. Germany, meanwhile, reacted in an even more astounding manner, with new Chancellor Olaf Scholz announcing a dramatic reconfiguration of the country’s security architecture. 

Meanwhile in France, the war’s escalation is further highlighting the relationship between Russia and far-right candidates in France’s upcoming presidential contest. Specifically, the Russian invasion has shined a spotlight on Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour—both of which have their own histories with Vladimir Putin—with Le Pen being greeted warmly by Putin in the past, and Zemmour longing for France’s own Vladimir Putin. While both candidates have condemned the invasion, Zemmour has come out and directly stated that, in Ukraine, “if Putin is guilty, the West is responsible.” While comments like that are only likely to weaken far-right candidates’ campaigns, and boost that of the incumbent Macron, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has clearly done a great deal to clarify security issues in the eyes of French voters in the leadup to April’s elections. 

Elsewhere in Europe, Italy has seen the war reshape its domestic politics, though, as noted by ECFR’s Teresa Coratella, things had already been changing since Mario Draghi took over as Prime Minister. While three of the right-wing parties in the current governing coalition—Forza Italia, the Five Star Movement, and the League—have long sought to cultivate the “special relationship” that former Prime Minister Silivo Berlusconi had developed with President Putin, Coratella notes that virtually all Italian political leaders have joined in condemnations of Russian aggression towards Ukraine. Furthermore, Italy has joined in on Western sanctions on Russia, despite the fact that the country imports more than 40% of its natural gas from Russia, and has, as Prime Minister Draghi has stated, “more to lose compared to other European countries that rely on different sources.” Importantly, the European Union has pledged to aid Italy’s transition away from Russian gas, with roughly €59 billion being provided for green energy initiatives, though there are concerns that energy shortages as a result of the crisis could derail that path. 

The Ukraine crisis also has had reverberations in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, with the U.S. deploying 15,000 more troops to the area, bringing the total number of U.S. service members in Europe to 90,000. Alongside this, the U.S. has increased its supply of weapons and equipment to the region, sending 20 Apache helicopters and 8 Air Force F-35’s from Germany to the Baltics in order to help reassure NATO allies there. Finally, for the first time, the NATO Response Force had been activated, giving NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Gen. Tod Wolters, a multinational land, air, sea, and special operations force that could quickly be deployed in support of the Alliance. While such troop increases are not nearly enough to defend against a full-blown Russian invasion of the Baltic state, such an invasion is not currently likely, as the bulk of Russian forces are engaged in Ukraine. 

Finally, the conflict in Ukraine even extends past national borders and into space. While the U.S. and Russia have worked peacefully on the International Space Station for the past twenty-four years, recent statements by Dmitry Rogozin, the Director-General of Russian state space corporation Roscosmos, including sharing a video depicting the ISS being split apart, with the Russian apparently threatening to depart and leave U.S. astronaut Mark Vande Hei in orbit. While such threats are unlikely to be carried out (UPDATE: Rogozin has apparently confirmed that Vande Hei will come home as scheduled), Russia has already removed the flags of the U.S., UK, and Japan on a British OneWeb satellite launch, which was subsequently canceled, demonstrating how events on Earth can reverberate into space. 

Final Thoughts

As mentioned above, in today’s globally interconnected world, it is unavoidable that conflict in one part of the world will ultimately echo throughout the planet. This is especially true when there is a war between Russia, the world’s eleventh largest economy, and Ukraine, supplier of more than 10% of the world’s wheat supply. While the war will clearly test Western solidarity, it is seemingly unavoidable that provoking the crisis has been an avoidable blunder for Putin and Russia. 

While certainly not all Western partners voted in favor of the UN resolution condemning the Russian aggression towards Ukraine, it did force countries that have a relationship with both Russia and the West to reexamine whether or not they would like the relationship with Moscow to grow in light of Putin’s reckless actions. While it still remains to be seen if Europe and the U.S. are truly willing to take on the long-term economic consequences of cutting Russia out of all global markets, it does seem that, at least in the short term, the Western will to punish Putin for his actions is resolute. Moreover, while countries such as Saudi Arabia have seemingly reaffirmed their commitment to Russia during the crisis, some analysts feel that the Gulf countries will ultimately have little choice but to yield to U.S. pressure, as the rules-based Western international order and the U.S.’ Carter Doctrine has paid dividends for regional states in the past few decades. Because of that, it will be unlikely that they will desire to upset the apple cart in order to favor a Russia-led system, where those with power determine the fate of smaller states.


However the crisis in Ukraine ultimately shakes out, whether it is a Russian victory, defeat, or something in between, the aggression that Moscow has initiated towards Ukraine will have global consequences for the foreseeable future. While the United States has anything but clean hands when it comes to using its power to get its way around the world, the Russian aggression towards Ukraine is more naked in its ambitions, with little to no justification given by Russia beyond the fact that it feels that Ukrainian territory is Russia’s by right. Finally, while the fight between the West, China, and Russia the past few years has always been about the future of the West’s rules-based international order, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will only accelerate that battle, forcing countries to take a side between a rules-based order and an order—led by Russia—where might is the only thing that makes right.

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Foreign Policy Links for the Week Ending 3/7/2022

March 4, 2022

Author’s Note: Due to some out-of-state travel this week, today’s post will not be the usual analysis of a timely topic; though normal service will resume next week. Instead, due to time constraints, I thought that I would take the chance to look at some of the articles, commentaries, and papers that I have not been able to dive into deeply over the past few months, and talk a bit about why I found each to be interesting (and you might too). In addition to reading my brief synopsis, I highly recommend looking at each briefing/paper/report in its entirety. Let’s take a look, together!

First up is a January 19 briefing from the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Anthony Cordesman, “The Middle East and North Africa in International Relations: The Changing Dynamics of Regional and National Security.” The briefing aims to give an overview of the shifts in MENA security dynamics since the “Arab Spring” in the early part of the last decade, and looks at some of the region-wide challenges, which include: poor governance, ethnic/sectarian challenges, over-dependence on oil exports, arms racing, rising major power and outside state competition, and a focus on fighting violent extremism with limited attention being paid to its underlying causes. As ever, Cordesman provides an honest, clear-eyed review of the situation, noting how poorly many of the countries perform in terms of effective governance, corruption. Further, he notes how differing economic and demographic growth rates all combine to create major problems in civil development and hinder countries’ ability to create internal stability. What’s more, Cordesman gives an overview of the region’s changing military dynamics, which will likely alter the nature of regional conflict, as continuing hydrocarbon exports allow regional countries to radically advance their arsenals, complicating the region’s strategic picture moving forward.


Another interesting article that may have gone under the radar in the past few months is a piece from Anouar Boukhars of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, “Trajectories of Violence Against Civilians by Africa’s Militant Islamist Groups.” The article, which focuses on the increasing number of Islamist-linked attacks on civilians in Africa, argues that, in order to protect civilians, one must first understand the underlying patterns of the violence to be able to see why attacks are occurring in the first place. 

To begin, Boukhars notes that attacks on civilians tend to occur in multi-actor environments with high out-group antagonism and ongoing socioeconomic divisions. Further, a group’s leadership’s inability to control their own fighters’ behavior is a strong indicator of potential attacks on civilians. The author proceeds to look at civilian attacks in the Sahel, Somalia, and Mozambique, noting that while the underlying circumstances in each area are different, all three have seen massive upticks in violence against civilians in recent years. In the Sahel, where 42% of violent attacks targeted civilians in 2021, intercommunal tensions, combined with clashes between the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel and the Macina Liberation Front, have increased the number of civilian deaths in recent years. Furthermore, security forces’ over-reliance on community based self-defense groups, which lack robust oversight, has ended up aggravating communal tensions and triggering more deadly civilian violence. In Somalia, al-Shabaab’s resilience has enabled the group to evolve and thrive financially, allowing it to continue its campaigns of suicide bombings and IED attacks throughout Mogadishu and the rest of the country. Finally, in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado, Boukhars notes that Ahlu Sunnah wa Jama’a (ASWJ) violence is mainly rooted in outgroup antagonism towards the dominant Makonde ethnic business elites and officials, along with the heavy handed security responses from the FRELIMO government, and that security forces’ brutality in their response has only increased ASWJ recruitment. While South African mercenaries have helped stabilize the situation somewhat, they have been accused of war crimes, further straining the relationship between locals and the government in Maputo. 

Moving forward, Boukhars argues that a reassessment is needed and that the key to such an effort is to prevent militants from exploiting already simmering intercommunal and ethnic tensions. Further, the authors argues that in Cabo Delgado, as the FRELIMO government has long been seen as exploiting the area’s resources—to little local benefit—an independent body may need to be set up to facilitate inter communal dialogue, strengthen dispute resolution mechanisms, and establish more equitable land use and property rights rules. Boukhars states that not only does the government need to focus on better providing basic social services in the Cabo Delgado area, it needs to train the country’s security forces to avoid heavy handed responses which will only further antagonize these communities. Without that, Mozambique will be unable to break the cycle that contributes to militant violence against civilians. 


Related to the Africa Center piece is a February 10 briefing from the International Crisis Group (Crisis Group), “Winning Peace in Mozambique’s Embattled North,” which examines the way in which Mozambique’s partners should press the government to do more to end the conflict, preventing it from spiraling out of control. The authors note that while outside donors have funded an aid surge, no amount of aid is likely to resolve the underlying problems in Cabo Delgado. This is because, in Cabo Delgado, locals’ grievances are rooted in a desire to more greatly benefit from the extraction of their region’s rich natural resources. However, historically, Maputo has kept such riches for itself and failed to address issues of corruption, human rights violations, and displacement that drives locals to join violent extremist organizations. 

The report also notes that while the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) has deployed troops as part of the Southern African Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), and al-Shabaab numbers have dwindled, SAMIM sources say that core leadership of al-Shabaab have remained in Quirimbas national park, maintaining regular raids and attacks, and keeping the security situation in Cabo Delgado fragile. Furthermore, ongoing violence has left over 750,000 locals uprooted, with most packed into displacement camps in the southern part of Cabo Delgado. Compounding civilians’ misery are shakedowns from Mozambican troops as well as the struggle to reintegrate women and girls held captive by insurgents. 

The Crisis Group report also notes that despite military pressure from SAMIM, as well as South African and Rwandan fighters, insurgents have survived and adapted, utilizing training from the Islamic State to create better bombs, and opening up a new front in Niassa province to the west of Cabo Delgado. There, the insurgents take advantage of local food, water, and hunting reserves to build a new power center, crossing the Rovuma river for more attacks and stretching security forces rather thin. 

Ultimately, the Crisis Group authors argue that some form of political engagement is going to be needed in order to end the conflict, as insurgents resent FRELIMO’s monopolization of the economy in Cabo Delgado as well as security force abuses. To arrive at a peaceful solution, the authors suggest that Maputo’s African partners push for: dialogue involving any political elites with influence in Cabo Delgado; the vetting of former fighters and involving them in security arrangements for the province once the military campaign is over; and an amnesty for low-level fighters and demobilization/reintegration camps to reincorporate those low-level fighters back into society. However, the authors are clear that dialogue will not be enough and that Maputo and its partners also need to dismantle the financial, recruitment, and IED proliferation cells linked to ISIS in East Africa, because as outside groups like ISIS continue to channel funds and expertise into the region, peace becomes that much harder to achieve. Finally, in terms of international pressure, while the EU may be able to dip into the European Peace Facility to help fund efforts to combat violent extremists in Cabo Delgado, Europe is unlikely to want to foot the entire bill, meaning that the African Union will need to help the SADC raise funds if it wants to continue the SAMIM deployment. 


The last piece on the problems in Mozambique was a short, but interesting, piece by Liesl Louw-Vaudran from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). Her piece, “Lessons for Mozambique after France’s withdrawal from the Sahel,” questions the ability of multinational troop interventions to achieve a lasting peace in Mozambique, as even three thousand troops on the ground are insufficient to address the roots of the crisis. In addition to continuing high unemployment and poverty in Cabo Delgado, there is the fact that there is rampant infighting among ruling elites over lucrative natural resource deals. To resolve the issue will require more equitable access to the natural resource wealth of the region, and a commitment from the country’s political elite to stabilize the northern part of the country. Furthermore, Louw-Vaudran states that there exists little cohesion and coordination between multilateral organizations, which creates an overall lack of synergy in the response. What results is a tendency towards military deployments to address the violence, rather than attempts to address the root causes of conflict. As France’s failures in Mali have shown, a militarized response is not sufficient to fix Mozambique’s underlying problems such as economic inequality, poor service delivery, and government corruption, which plague Cabo Delgado. Left unaddressed, no amount of regional troop deployments will resolve the situation. 


Somewhat related to the ISS piece is a February policy report from the Atlantic Council, “Sahel: Moving Beyond Military Containment,” by Pierre Englebert and Rida Lyammouri, which examines the region’s ongoing crisis, along with recommendations for both regional states and international donors to help escape the conflict. The crisis, which began in the wake of the Libyan civil war, has expanded to include numerous violent extremist organizations active in Mali, Burkina Faso, Benin, Niger, Côte d’Ivoire, and has no end in sight. In fact, the situation is actually deteriorating, as both local and international Islamic groups (AQIM, ISGS, ISWAP, JNIM, Katiba Macina) attack communities, government forces, and each other

In addition to the proliferation of violent extremist organizations (VEOs), there has been an expansion in the number of local self-defense groups and ethnic militias in the region, further exacerbating underlying tensions. For instance, in the Mopti region, home to 1.6 million Malians, recurring and worsening droughts have served to amplify tensions between local Fulani cattle herders and Dogon farmers, and the outbreak of jihadist violence in 2015 prompted these communities to establish their own self-defense militias, kicking off a cycle of intercommunal violence that continues to this day. Further complicating the situation are the traffickers smuggling cigarettes, hashish, and cocaine along with migrants through the region, which leads to the creation of mafia-like structures which challenge previously established authorities within the region and provide a tempting career for the large number of regional youths who lack gainful employment. Making matters worse is ongoing violence committed by state security forces which merely serve to exacerbate the underlying drivers of conflict for local civilians. 

What’s more, the Atlantic Council authors outline how foreign interventions, specifically France’s Operation Barkhane, not only failed to address the root causes of violence, but may have exacerbated the problem through alleged human rights violations and an overall lack of accountability from Paris. Furthermore, Englebert and Lyammouri argue that France’s ongoing inability to conceive of the situation through anything but a military lens has hindered its ability to make real change in the region. For instance, while the 2021 Pau Summit emphasized the return of the state and governance to the Sahel, governance issues were merely an afterthought, with the fight against terrorism listed as the primary objectives, and provision of services, justice, and development mere afterthoughts. 

Furthermore, advocates of a militarized strategy are unable to directly point to how the threat will be vanquished, other than by naming individuals and groups that the military must target for defeat. This has led some, like Nigerien President Mohammed Bazoum to label Barkhane a “relative failure” and state that even a partial French retreat would have a minimal impact on the counterterrorism mission. Meanwhile, the French argue that the violence that has spread along ethnic and communal lines is outside the remit of Barkhane, which, as Englebert and Lyammouri state, ignores how such dynamics are what allow for the emergence of violent extremist organizations in the first place. Compounding these struggles are the failures of Sahelian governments to curb corruption, provide security in government-held territory, and reform their security sectors. 

Ultimately, what the Atlantic Council report suggests is that Sahelian states need to do much more if they want to create opportunities for good governance at home. The first recommendation the authors make it to better empower local communities to make their own rules. West African history shows that modern, Western democratic structures are a poor fit for regional circumstances, and that a more federal system, such as existed in the Songhai Empire in the 13th-17th centuries, would be a better fit. Such federal systems would recognize that sovereignty belongs to local communities, and not the post-colonial states that were set up in the dissolution of empire. Empowering local communities would not only enable them to better administer their own resources, it would allow the federal state to focus on a more manageable array of functions, such as the provision of security. Another recommendation made by the authors is that Sahelian states should build upon local populations’ desires to be governed by religious laws, not to create a repressive theocracy, but to give a greater role for Islamic associations in the region. States could also build upon Islam’s political legacy in West Africa in order to provide a more conducive environment for governance. 

When it comes to military assistance to the region, the Atlantic Council report argues that civilian protection must be the watchword for all operations, and that outside providers of security sector assistance—such as the US and European Union—need to rethink the ways in which they provide it. When U.S. drone intelligence facilitates a French focus on killing jihadists, it frequently ends up only producing more local grievances. Englebert and Lyanmmouri also outline two alternatives to the current ways of conducting military assistance: direct, targeted interventions against violent extremists that are part of broader multinational coalitions; and security-focused support limited to cross-national, integrated military collaborations to incentivize federal-like operations over reinforcement of militias that often pray on civilians.

Finally, the Atlantic Council piece closes with an argument that official development assistance needs to better address the root causes of regional fragility, addressing the intercommunal tensions that create openings for violent extremists to exploit. Since good governance requires the state to be reconciled with local populations that often possess deep distrust of the government, donors can help through the provision of services—by any willing and accountable actors—as an alternative to governance by violent actors. As part of this, the authors suggest that the Sahel’s international partners should support the development of community-based and -led committees for reporting human rights abuse by all parties. Further, they argue that France should specifically engage with partners to determine what kind of intercommunal healing must occur to address the violence done under the name of Operation Barkhane as well as address the ongoing climate and energy issues that so dramatically affect the region.


Next up is another piece from Anthony Cordesman, with the assistance of Grace Hwang, “NATO and Ukraine: Reshaping NATO to Meet the Russian and Chinese Challenge.” The report, from February 16, looks at the ways in which NATO can be improved in order to remedy the Alliance’s troubling lack of modernization, interoperability, and leadership. Cordesman makes clear that a myopic focus on NATO members’ spending levels, as occurred during the Trump administration, is merely a distraction from a concentration on more effective and interoperable national military forces. 

Cordesman’s report notes that while European members of NATO have spent between four and five times what Russia spent on defense since the end of the Cold War, they have not gotten enough capability in return for their spending. For instance, Cordesman notes more needs to be done in Brussels to develop clear national plans to improve the military forces of individual European nations, while also doing more to improve interoperability. After all, the author notes, while Europe has made major cuts to force size since the end of the Cold War, Russia has as well. However, Europe faces the problem of coordinating thirty different national efforts while Russia is merely responsible for itself. Furthermore, in the Baltic states, Cordesman notes that the countries there have only token militaries and those forces have barely begun the process of becoming interoperable with NATO. 

Overall, while the report notes that some European states have made strides in modernization and interoperability, there is still a great deal more that remains to be done. What Cordesman elucidates is that the U.S. needs to make clear its commitment to NATO and Europe; expand on the NATO 2030 Reflection Group’s work and develop clear individual national force plans; make its power projection capability available to European NATO allies and ensure that they know how each element benefits them; help NATO develop force plans that address the rapid advancement of technology; issue an unclassified annual report on U.S. power projection capabilities that describes the support the U.S. is providing in modern capabilities such as space and cyber, C4ISR, Joint All-Domain Operations, long-range precision strike systems, and missile defense, amongst others; and finally, to focus on the transatlantic need to compete with China and develop a collective approach to either persuade it to cooperate with the West or limit the risks of future conflicts by better addressing the China/Russia relationship. 


Yet another piece that may have slipped under most people’s radars in the past few weeks is a great paper from the Council on Foreign Relations, “The Revival of Military Rule in South and Southeast Asia: Dangers to the Region’s Democratic Future,” by Joshua Kurlantzick. The report touches on the region’s overall democratic regression and the rise of illiberal leaders. The authors specifically note how regional states’ militaries have taken on increasing roles in various governments, with juntas in Myanmar and Thailand; and states like Cambodia, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines seeing democratic erosion and their armed forces once again playing a major role in governance. The report notes how coups—which had declined in the period immediately after the end of the Cold War—have re-emerged, with coups in Thailand in 2006 and 2014 illustrative of the outbreak of military influence in civilian governance throughout the region. 

However, Kurlantzick notes that despite partial or even full retreats from civilian politics after the Cold War, militaries in countries like Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand never saw their power clipped, or saw civilian command successfully enshrined. Furthermore, he notes that many of these countries failed to address human rights abuses committed by militaries during periods of junta rule, which fostered an overall climate of impunity. In addition, civilian leaders never took the steps needed to retrain militaries to accept civilian control, such as staffing military academies with outside instructors that could teach about robust civilian command of the military. Finally, Kurlantzick states that elected politicians failed to hand power from the military to civilian agencies which would have been easier to oversee, effectively creating the conditions for the military to resume power. In addition to this, the report argues that global powers’ ambivalent responses to coups suggests to future plotters that they will not be punished for their actions. Coupled with growing democratic disillusionment in the region, it creates the space for militaries to propose themselves as the answer to a country’s seemingly intractable problems. 

However, Kurlantzick does offer a number of suggestions to prevent future coups and reduce military interference in civilian governance. These range from regional organizations such as ASEAN needing to take tougher approaches to coups in order to deter them; actions by global powers like the United States, France, Japan, and the European Union to condemn coups unequivocally through the application of sanctions, the backing of coup opponents with aid, taking steps to restore democracy at home, and working to convince China to help cooperate to prevent and reverse coups; and democrats in countries with the potential for couples to more publicly discuss past human rights by the army and to identify military officers who are amenable to civilian control of the military. If regional organizations, international partners, and democrats in each country do not take such steps, the proliferation of coups in the past decade may only be the tip of the iceberg. 


Up next is a series of articles from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), the International Crisis Group, and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), all of which look at how the U.S. should look to prevent and respond to coups. In, “Should ECOWAS Rethink its Approach to Coups,” FPRI’s Komlan Avoulete argues that more needs to be done to target and destabilize juntas that have taken over in West Africa in recent years. For instance, Avoulete argues that while sanctions may end up harming civilians in places like Mali, a failure by ECOWAS to institute any kind of economic punishment towards the military might cause the body to lose its legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Ultimately, Avoulete states that sanctions need to be taken against any president that changes their country’s constitution to stay in power, but that the solution must be proportionate and target those instigating the military takeover, not the entire country.

In the Crisis Group commentary, “Why the UN Security Council Stumbles in Responding to Coups,” by Richard Gowan and Ashish Pradhan, the authors argue that the Council has never been adept at responding to coups, and that the body is often hindered in its response to coups due to confusion about what is happening on the ground; conflicting geopolitical interests among P5 members; and limited leverage over junta plotters. While the authors acknowledge that it is unlikely that the Security Council can do more to prevent coups due to these limitations, they do note that if and when Council members express concern about a coup, it may create the space for some actors like regional organizations such as ECOWAS or ASEAN to take more concrete actions, essentially giving them cover to act. Similarly, where there is momentum at regional organizations to condemn or address coups, member states can then use the United Nations to amplify those concerns, focusing attention on the issue and helping to uphold the eroding norm against military takeovers. 

In closing, there are two interesting reports from late February from the USIP, the first being “Countering Coups: How to Prevent Armed Seizures of Power,” by Thomas P. Sheehy, Edward A. Burrier, Ena Dion, and Emily Cole, and the second, “Countering Coups: How to Help Rebuild Democratic Rule,” by Joseph Sany and Aly Verjee. In How to Prevent Armed Seizures of Power, the authors argue that there are three major ways that the U.S. can assist African countries avoid future coups. These suggestions start with the United States fully implementing the 2019 Global Fragility Act, specifically the requirement that the administration designate at least five priority countries, along with specific plans for coordinated U.S. action in each, to prevent violence and strengthen stability. Secondly, the authors argue that the U.S. needs to make better use of instruments for boosting the economies of fragile states in order to reduce the risk of coups. As mentioned above, rampant youth unemployment is a key driver of unrest, and the U.S. already has agencies, such as the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation which can inject investment into countries with economies that are starved for cash. Finally, Sheehy, Burrier, Dion, and Cole argue that the U.S., and other international donors, need to overhaul the provision of military and security assistance to fragile countries, working to strengthen their provision of governance and services, and not just their military capabilities. Here, the authors note that 58% of U.S. security assistance to the Sahel goes to train and equip projects and a majority of the rest goes to support international peacekeeping operations, with little focus put on building a culture of democratic, civilian governance that can be the basis for a positive future. 

In How to Help Rebuild Democratic Rule, Sany and Verjee argue that when coups do occur, there is a need for the United States, and other democratic partners, to rectify a prior tendency to focus too narrowly on achieving as short as possible a transition, and instead focus on the quality of that transition, so that coups will not simply reemerge a few years down the line. As part of a successful transition, Sany and Verjee state that the U.S., and other international interlocutors, must create detailed roadmaps of the changes required to strengthen democracy in the country, including key goals and dates for their achievement. This way, democratic forces in-country can conduct their election campaigns based on the ways that they will assist the country in meeting the roadmap’s goals, rather than focusing on the often outsized personalities that are running for office, as often occurs. Furthermore, the authors argue that, in the transition to civilian governance, there needs to be a greater focus on including groups that had been previously excluded from power. 

Finally, Sany and Verjee state that post-coup countries’ outside partners, as well as multilateral international organizations, need to use both carrots and sticks to press military rulers to leave power. They note that while these bodies may possess limited leverage to reverse coups, they do have the ability to provide the international respectability many coup plotters so desperately crave. When Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing was excluded from ASEAN’s leaders meetings in October 2021, it sent a message that at least some in the body will not tolerate military takeovers of duly-elected civilian governments. While Cambodia’s takeover of the may see that reversed, due to closer Cambodia-Myanmar ties, the public rebuke to the Burmese junta is a strong message and should be the minimum of what such international bodies will do to condemn coups.

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Keyser Söze Sanctions for Russian Oligarchs

February 24, 2022

On February 22, in response to Russian recognition of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on three Russian oligarchs with close ties to Vladimir Putin: Gennady Timchenko, and brothers Igor and Boris Rotenberg. The designation of the three Russians, which accompanied similar measures against five Russian banks, is intended to target the individuals who aided the Russian destabilization campaign in Ukraine. However, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated in comments before Parliament, these sanctions are merely, “the first tranche, the first barrage of what we are prepared to do. And we hold further sanctions at readiness to be deployed alongside the United States and the European Union if the situation escalates still further.” 

Nevertheless, as Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy wrote on Twitter shortly after the Prime Minister’s comments, the sanctions imposed by the government on February 22 do not go far enough, and that if the UK does not impose a full set of sanctions now, “Putin will once again take away the message that the benefits of aggression outweigh the costs.” Furthermore, as fellow opposition member Liam Byrne argued in front of the House of Commons, “The risk is that today’s slap on the wrist will not deter anything further…the sanctions against the oligarchs have been on the American lists since 2018…The Prime Minister has got to recognize that pulling our punches does not work with President Putin. We need to punch harder, and if we’re not prepared to send bombers, we should at least take on the bankers.” Finally, as Labour leader Keir Starmer said

“But we must also get our own house in order. The Prime Minister said the lesson from Russias’ 2014 invasion of Donbas is that you can’t just let Vladimir Putin get away with it. But until now, we have. We have failed to stop the flow of illicit Russian finance into Britain. A cottage industry does the bidding of those linked to Putin. And Russian money has been allowed to influence our politics. We have to admit that mistakes have been made. We have to rectify them. This must be a turning point. An end to oligarch impunity. We need to draw a line on Companies House providing easy cover for shell companies. We need to ensure our anti-money laundering laws are enforced. We need to crack down on spies. And we have to make sure that money isn’t pouring into UK politics from abroad.”

Therefore, while it is undeniable that the UK is indeed responding to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, Parliament and Downing Street need to be doing much more to go after the myriad tendrils of illicit and ill-gotten Russian money that has granted the capital the sobriquet “Londongrad” due to the sheer number of posh homes bought by wealthy Russian oligarchs and the massive overall influx of Russian money into the UK. Furthermore, progress on combating the impact of Russian oligarch money into British life will be difficult to achieve, as the ruling Conservative party has extensive funding links with many of these expatriate Russians. Indeed, several close allies of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, including his Tory leadership campaign manager James Wharton, have been connected to companies owned by Russian businessman Alexander Temerko, who is alleged to have connections at the highest levels of the Kremlin, including Vladimir Putin. 

Therefore, despite the Prime Minister’s current rhetorical commitment to further sanctioning Kremlin-linked individuals, finding more avenues to punish Kremlin-linked individuals that live or do business in the UK will be difficult. However, that does not mean that it is impossible, and with some creative thinking and a great deal of willpower from British politicians, the UK can take steps that will place further restrictions on the lives of those with connections to the Putin regime. While it is lamentably unlikely that the United Kingdom will actually take many more steps to target Russian oligarchs living and doing business in the UK, especially under the current government, it is still worth taking the time to examine the extent of the problem, as well as some possible remedies to it. If the UK does not pursue all possible paths to punishing Putin-linked oligarchs, the government should at the very least consider further steps to constrain the actions of oligarchs and those that are close to them, perhaps even hitting them in an area where they may be the most sensitive: their families. After all, Putin obviously considers the oligarchs close to him some of the most important individuals in all of Russia to consult with as he further escalates his assault on Ukraine. In light of that, it is worthwhile to take a look at the extent of the problem before considering some possible remedies.

The UK’s Kleptocracy Problem

Back in December 2021, the UK’s Chatham House released a paper, “The UK’s kleptocracy problem: How servicing post-Soviet elites weakens the rule of law,” by John Heathershaw, Alexander Cooley, Tom Mayne, Casey Michel, Tena Prelec, Jason Sharman, and Ricardo Soares de Oliveira, which examined how the United Kingdom has—through its weak transparency laws and an over-prioritization of finance in immigration policy—become a playground for Russian kleptocrats with close ties to the Kremlin. The Chatham House report makes use of the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority’s guidelines on countries with a high risk of corruption, which defines a kleptocracy as, “a political economy dominated by a small number of people/entities with close links to the state,” and notes that by their very nature, kleptocracies are transnational, with money flowing from post-Soviet Eurasia to the United Kingdom. 

The report, which examines the impact that individuals with ties to kleptocratic regimes have on UK politics and society, notes that having individuals in the UK government with ties to kleptocratic, post-Soviet elites, creates the possibility of improper influence being exerted on those individuals’ behalf, undermining the rule of law in Britain. As the authors of the Chatham House report point out, beyond image problems, these ties call into question the integrity of UK public institutions and that, “efforts must be made to recover Britain’s reputation and integrity, not simply on moral grounds, but because the fairness and efficiency of the country’s rule of law are at stake.”

To that end, the Chatham House authors then proceed to outline the ways in which kleptocratic figures have an impact on Britain, specifically noting the influx of post-Soviet kleptocrats and their purchases of large amounts of British property, the majority of which were procured with the use of offshore holding companies. These purchases include twenty major residential property purchases by Russian nationals with ties to Putin, including: Roman Rotenberg, Sergei Pugachev, Andrey Yakunin, Andrey Goncharenko, Andrey Guryev, Roman Abramovich, Igor Shuvalov, Oleg Deripaska, Lubov Chernukhina, Andrei Borodin, and Zhanna and Dmitri Leus

What’s more, while there are regulations requiring British firms dealing with “politically exposed persons” with prominent public functions—as well as their families and close associates—to perform enhanced compliance checks to ensure that money is not being laundered in the UK, those requirements are often left unmet in the law, banking, property, and accountancy sectors. This failure to complete due diligence requirements can largely be traced back to an overall insensitivity in the banking industry towards money-laundering risks. In addition, while regulated industries in the UK filed over 573,000 suspicious activity reports (SARs) in 2019-2020—a 20% increase over the prior year—the UK’s National Crime Agency’s (NCAs) Financial Intelligence Unit only employs 118 individuals to review these activity reports, which would require each employee to completely review nineteen SARs every single day, an impossibility when looking into potential criminal activity by individuals looking to keep their identities hidden. Finally, the authors note that, though the UK’s National Crime Agency has, in recent years, experienced some high-profile failures in its attempts to enforce the issuance of unexplained wealth orders (UWOs), it has had more success with the introduction of Account Freezing Orders (AFOs), which carry a lower evidentiary standard for its application. Such court-issued AFOs have been handed down in connection with the niece of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and other politically exposed persons attempting to spend their ill-gotten gains in the UK. 

However, despite these, albeit limited, tools being available to the UK government, the government has chosen not to make much use of them, with the Johnson government conspicuous in its refusal to make use of the unexplained wealth order. As Labour MP Ben Bradshaw mentioned in front of Parliament on February 22, the government has not issued a single UWO since Mr. Johnson became Prime Minister, and even the strongest tools would be rendered useless if left unexploited for so long. 

Further compounding the British government’s inability to document the influx of foreign money into the UK is the fact that existing legislation does little to target the facilitators of money laundering: the bankers, lawyers, and estate agents who execute oligarchs’ purchases. As the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament’s 2020 report on the threat posed by Russia noted, “lawyers, accountants, estate agents, and PR professionals have played a role, wittingly or unwittingly, in the extension of Russian influence which is often linked to promoting the nefarious interests of the Russian state,” and that, “a large private security industry has developed in the UK to service the needs of the Russian elite, in which British companies protect the oligarchs and their families, seek kompromat on competitors, and on occasion help launder money through offshore shell companies and fabricate ‘due diligence’ reports, while lawyers provide litigation support.” Relatedly, as the Chatham House authors note, given the confidentiality that exists around the UK’s SAR system, it is exceedingly difficult to determine whether legal professionals are acting appropriately on any red flags presented before them. 

In addition to difficulties checking the flow of illicit funds into the UK, the British government also faces a number of challenges when it comes to the flow of Russian money into the UK’s political and public institutions, including its major universities. As mentioned by the Chatham House authors, the Leus family foundation’s website reads like it was created by a reputation manager, and the Putin-linked Andrei Yakunin has employed the services of UK corporate intelligence firm GPW + Co. in order to enhance and protect his family’s reputation. However, the primary way that Russian oligarchs in the UK have tried to launder their reputation is through political donations. As mentioned above, the UK Conservative Party has received numerous donations from Kremlin-linked individuals, encompassing donations to fourteen different government ministers, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak. While Russian donors have long had ties to the Conservative Party—with the party receiving £3.5 million from donors with Russian backgrounds between 2010-2019—much of the present Russian influence has been facilitated by the actions of Conservative Party co-chair Ben Elliot, who ushered in an era of “cash-for-access” whereby oligarchs and kleptocrats seeking influence donate money to the party in return for access to Boris Johnson and senior cabinet ministers. 

Chatham House Recommendations

Therefore, if the UK wishes to do more to combat the unseemly influence of Russian oligarchs and kleptocrats on British society and politics, the Chatham House authors argue that the UK government needs to do a lot more than it has so far. The first recommendation the authors make to combat the malign influence of Russian money on UK politics and society is to make it mandatory that politically exposed persons conducting transactions over a certain monetary value be required to report the transaction to a state agency. Such a move is intended to remove requirements that lawyers, bankers, accountants, and estate agents assess their own suspicion of money laundering before reporting it, and instead to have large purchases automatically reported to the NCA or other state agency for their review. 

A second recommendation made by the report’s authors is that all UK-registered companies should be required to have at least one UK citizen or resident as an officer, with that person bearing ultimate responsibility for any improprieties committed by the firm. Such a scenario would require that the designated UK citizen or resident have an understanding of any transactions made by the firm, in case they are exposed to civil or criminal liability. Similarly, the authors also propose that those that submit fraudulent information to Companies House be fined or permanently prevented from acting as a company officer if they are found to have knowingly submitted false information when registering a company that owns UK property. 

The fourth recommendation made in the Chatham House report is that the UK’s NCA be given a clear mandate and more funding to investigate the enablers of money laundering, including the lawyers and bankers facilitating the transactions. More funding is required due to the fact that in the period, “between 2016-21, the NCA’s core budget decreased by 4.2% in real terms and would need an additional investment of £21 million on top of its 2020/21 budget to have stayed the same in real terms. This decrease contrasts starkly with the fact that in 2019, former Director-General of the NCA, Lynne Owens, said the agency needed an additional £650 million a year – or a 54% increase – to be able to fight economic and organised crime effectively.” Furthermore, the authors make clear that fines are not enough in these money laundering cases, and that imprisonment may be necessary to end the overall climate of impunity that is seemingly so pervasive in the UK.  

Yet another recommendation made by Heathershaw et al. is to reexamine UK anti-money laundering legislation regarding politically exposed persons and third countries, adding requirements for all PEPs who are the beneficial owners of companies to be on the record no matter what size stake in the company they hold. Similarly, the authors propose that the UK make an addition to the European Commission’s “high-risk third countries” list by applying the aforementioned Financial Conduct Authority’s guidelines on countries with a high risk of corruption. One more way to revise existing UK law to better target kleptocracy’s influence in Britain is to restore the use of UWOs, which have languished under the Johnson administration. 

The authors further propose that the government make use of new Global Anti-Corruption sanctions against kleptocrats, and their close associates, living in the UK. In addition, the authors argue that Parliament should introduce specific legal requirements for universities to report the identity of donors, the amounts donated, and any major stipulations attached to their donations, so that the country’s cultural institutions are not unduly captured by expatriate Russian oligarchs. Finally, and relatedly, the authors state that UK charity law should be amended to require all charities, including think-tanks to publish a list of all major donors, the amount donated, and major stipulations made by donors in their annual report to the Charity Commission for England and Wales and equivalent bodies in Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

However, while all of these recommendations are excellent, and each would have a tremendous effect on the ability of Russian oligarchs to secret away their money in the UK, there is still a great deal more that Her Majesty’s Government can be doing to tackle the problem, especially as it attempts to send a message to Moscow that anyone associated with Vladimir Putin is anathema to the United Kingdom. 

Expanding Sanctions and Making Them Bite

If the UK desires to send a real message with its sanctioning of Putin-linked oligarchs, it will need to both strengthen its sanctions, and expand the list of individuals targeted by such sanctions. As presently constructed, Western sanctions regimes do not do enough to prevent Kremlin-linked oligarchs from enjoying the fruits of their ill-gained wealth, for example in the art world

Perhaps modeling itself on the UK’s Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)—more specifically the EITI’s transparency requirements on beneficial ownership—the UK could take up the House of Commons own recommendations and introduce a public register for beneficial ownership of UK property, as was mentioned in the December 2019 Queen’s Speech by the Government. However, as was noted late last month by the Guardian newspaper, there are concerns that the Johnson government has rejected the consideration of the economic crime bill for this year’s term, which would place the registry of beneficial interest in jeopardy, hindering efforts to shine the spotlight on Putin-linked figures making large real estate purchase in the UK. It will be important that the British public keep up pressure on the Johnson government to move forward with the economic crime bill, especially the requirements on disclosing beneficial ownership, if the UK wants to limit the amount of property held by figures linked to Putin.

Another major way to extend the reach of British sanctions would be to expand the range of individuals sanctioned. While coming up with an exact list of individuals close to Putin may initially seem like a daunting task, the fact is that much of the hard work has already been done by Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation. The group—which was founded by Navalny and currently led by Executive Director Vladimir Ashurkov while Navalny languishes in a Russian prison—released a list in February 2021 of thirty-five alleged Russian human rights abusers and kleptocrats that are close to the Putin regime. However, the UK has only sanctioned three of those individuals as of February 23, and only one of them was sanctioned after the release of the Navalny list. The Navalny list—which includes both the individuals recommended for sanctioning, along with the reason for sanctions—should be an excellent jumping off point for the UK government to pursue a wider range of Putin’s enablers, which thankfully, the Johnson administration finally seems to be considering. However, even if the UK wished to focus on autocrats and avoid punishing those that are merely accused of harassing Navalny and being complicit in his poisoning, it would still leave another twenty-four to twenty-five individuals, responsible for corruption, authoritarian repression, and human rights violations that have yet to be sanctioned.

These figures range from the lesser known Yuri Chaika—allegedly a corrupt former Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation—to Roman Abramovich, owner of Millhouse Capital, multinational steel manufacturing and mining company EVRAZ, and most prominently, the man at the top of Chelsea F.C., one of the world’s best known football clubs. Yuri Chaika and his two adult sons, Artem and Igor, have allegedly made fortunes exploiting the influence of their father— and his relationship with Putin and his cronies—principally through contracts with Russian Railways. For instance, Igor’s firm T-Industry JSC, was allowed to acquire half of the largest producers of sleeper cars in Russia, Beteltrans OJSC in 2014, later growing that stake to 75% in 2017, giving Chaika a controlling interest in a major transportation-linked firm. More provocatively, Navalny’s anti-corruption group has alleged that Artem Chaika was the co-owner of a five-star hotel in Kushchevskaya in southern Russia that had ties to the Tsapok gang, responsible for a massacre in Kushchevskaya in 2010. The hotel, which was co-owned by Olga Lopatina, former wife of Yuri Chaika’s number two and deputy prosecutor general, came to Navalny’s groups’ attention when it was discovered that Lopatina was also joint owner of a sugar business with the wife of Sergei Tsapok, mastermind behind the 2010 massacre that left twelve dead, including four children. 

As for Abramovich, he would be perhaps the biggest figure to target with sanctions, as he is currently listed as the world’s 131st wealthiest individual, and his ownership of Chelsea F.C. gives him national prominence in both the UK and Russia, where his club is one of the most popular non-Russian football clubs in his home country. However, Abramovich, who is one of Putin’s oldest backers, has managed to avoid sanctions from both the British and U.S. governments, though he has had to restructure his holdings in recent years, in the belief that sanctions may one day be coming. Abramovich, who was described in Navalny’s list as a, “billionaire businessman with a wide portfolio of holdings in Russia and globally, one of the key enablers and beneficiaries of the Kremlin’s kleptocracy, with significant ties to, and assets in the West,” has already been named as an oligarch as part of the U.S.’ Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA)-mandated list of those that benefit from close association with Putin, indicating that he could be targeted for sanctions in the future. 

The U.S.’ informal, “Putin’s list”, which has many, if not most of the same names as Navalny’s list, also would be a way to expand the reach of UK sanctions, expanding the list to encompass a greater number of senior Russian political figures. While the British Parliament has taken steps this week to expand sanctions to members of the Russian Duma that voted to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk’s independence, the House of Common still needs to pass legislation putting the move into effect, and sanctions against the Russian Duma would not encompass either oligarchs or senior advisers to Putin, making them of questionable value.

These individuals, with their wealth and connections to Putin, prop him up through their financial relationships with the regime, and in turn, siphon off the wealth of the Russian people for their own private interests. If the UK wants to both eliminate the toxic influence of Russian oligarch money in its politics, while simultaneously hurting Russian kleptocrats and influencing Russian foreign policy, Parliament would be well disposed to pursue more stringent sanctions against a wider range of Kremlin-linked figures like those on Navalny’s list. However, sanctions and visa bans for individuals such as Roman Abramovich, while inconvenient, would not fundamentally alter day-to-day life for the super-wealthy. This is especially true for individuals like Yuri Chaika, who are less likely to be conducting their business internationally, but whose family still looks to influence foreign governments. 

Instead, what is required is a more expansive set of sanctions, not only targeting individuals suspected of propping up Putin, but all their family members, and anyone they are known to conduct business with. While the U.S. sanctions that were announced this week do target the sons of Putin allies Alexander Bortnikov and Sergei Kiriyenko, Denis and Vladimir, the UK has not listed either son for sanctions as of yet. Furthermore, Denis and Vladimir were likely only included for possible sanctions due to the fact that both are credibly accused of doing their own work to prop up Putin, with Denis, currently a Deputy President of Russian-state owned financial institution VTB Bank Public Joint Stock Company (VTB Bank) and Chairman of the VTB Bank Management Board; and Vladimir, who is currently CEO of VK Group, Russia’s largest social media company. Denis Bortnikov’s VTB Bank is alleged to have facilitated Putin’s embezzlement of state funds, and Vladimir Kiriyenko is said to have been a leading figure in the creation of Russia’s “sovereign Internet”, which allows the Putin regime to control the flow of information that reaches Russian citizens.

Therefore, while the designation of Denis Bortnikov and Vladimir Kiriyenko were certainly justified, it is only part of what the UK government should be doing to target the families of Russian oligarchs. As part of this week’s sanctions designations, the United States argued that, “Elites close to Putin continue to leverage their proximity to the Russian President to pillage the Russian state, enrich themselves, and elevate their family members into some of the highest positions of power in the country at the expense of the Russian people,” and that, “sanctioned oligarchs have used family members to move assets and to conceal their immense wealth.” Therefore, it is high time that UK sanctions more stridently target the families of those pillaging Russia and enabling Putin’s aggression towards Ukraine. 

To that end, the UK should expand its designated persons list to include the “Navalny 35” as well as all of their adult children, whether those children have a registered financial stake in their parents’ firms, or not. Designating such individuals, and banning them from travel to and investment in the UK, while certainly a departure from prior practice, would have the unique benefit of increasing the pressure on Russian oligarchs and kleptocrats by restricting the ability of their immediate family to travel abroad or make use of their wealth. As former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer stated in comments to the Daily Beast back in March 2021, “While I’m not fully comfortable with targeting family members, perhaps it is time to sanction spouses and children along with the primary individual,” because, “if a Russian oligarch can’t travel, that’s one thing. If his spouse can’t make her shopping trips to London and kids can’t get to their colleges in the West, that would be a different degree of pressure.” 

The Will to Do What the Other Guy Wouldn’t

Beyond targeting those with a direct financial stake in their parent’s businesses, targeting other family members who do not have such direct financial interests would hopefully have a chilling effect on oligarchs and kleptocrats, as they risk exposing their children’s possibly legitimate business interests to Western sanctions by dint of their blood relations. While the UK should certainly leave open avenues for family members to contest their relationship with sanctioned individuals, especially if they can demonstrate that they no longer have contact with the sanctioned person, the fact that there will be collateral damage is, in some ways, the point. 

As has been demonstrated by nearly a decade of Western sanctions towards Russia, carefully calibrated sanctions lists have not affected a change in Russian foreign policy, and may well be considered a baked-in cost of doing business. That being the case, it is time to get more expansive with the tool, as individual sanctions designations have not altered Russian foreign policy seemingly one iota since they were put in place in 2014. Therefore, sanctions need to become more painful if they are going to have an effect and achieve the goal of resolving thorny issues of international relations without resorting to armed conflict.

A major way to make sanctions designations hurt more is to have such sanctions automatically include all immediate family members, including their spouse, parent, sibling, or adult children of the person being designated. Expanding the definition of who can be encompassed by sanctions would make it difficult or impossible for sanctioned individuals, and their families, to vacation, study, live, or work in the UK, limiting the cultural and educational opportunities that oligarchs’ families have traditionally availed themselves of in Britain. 

Furthermore, if instituted in conjunction with the U.S. and European Union, such sanctions designations could cut off the families of Russian kleptocrats from enjoying their wealth anywhere in Europe, forcing them to either vacation in the Middle East or Asia, or to remain in Russia, a fate that seems dreary at best for the sons and daughters of Russia’s elite. As noted in by the UK’s Daily Mail in a 2016 article profiling Lisa Peskova, daughter of Russian press secretary Dmitry Peskov, Peskova had described the Russian educational system as a, “true hell,” stating that, “I am not the only one who thinks that the educational system in Russia must be changed,” despite the fact that she chose to instead attend university in France instead of Moscow. Furthermore, it was discovered in 2019 that Lisa’s sister Yelizaveta was working in the European Parliament in Brussels as an intern for former French MEP Aymeric Chauprade. While expanded sanctions from the UK would not affect either Lisa or her sister, coordinated U.S.-UK-EU sanctions would have limited the ability of Peskov’s daughters to enjoy the benefits of European life. If instead of studying and interning in Europe, Lisa and Yelizaveta were instead forced to remain in Moscow through their teens and early-twenties, it would certainly make life more difficult on the home front for Peskov, further complicating his ability to work for Putin. While no one should be under any illusions that restricting the ability of family members to work, study, and travel to the West will immediately or dramatically change Russian foreign policy, it is at least a useful first step towards that goal, as it would increase the pressure on those in Putin’s inner circle. 

Yet another way to more aggressively target Russian kleptocrats living and working in the UK would be to create more stringent rules for the lawyers, accountants, bankers, and estate agents that facilitate their purchases. As part of such an effort, which could be modeled on U.S. anti-money laundering and countering terrorist financing laws, it would aim to increase the maximum penalties for those required to report suspicious activity so that the UK government was empowered to revoke a bank’s charter, as can be done through the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act for violations of money laundering statutes. For lawyers, accountants, and estate agents, the punishment for doing business with sanctioned individuals should include license revocation and possibly jail time, as the pull of Russian oligarchs’ money will be hard to resist. The idea behind such robust reporting requirements would be to create an environment amongst professionals such that the penalties for conducting business for a sanctioned individual would be so severe that bankers, accountants, lawyers, and estate agents are simply too afraid of losing their future ability to work that they are unlikely to take on questionable clients. 

In addition to sanctioning the firms that do business with those that siphon money from the Russian people and facilitate the Putin regime’s aggression towards Ukraine, the UK can do much more to increase the pressure on Kremlin-linked oligarchs. While expanding sanctions lists to include kleptocrats’ families, and increasing the penalties for those that enable them in the UK, may not convince Putin to pull back in Ukraine, it is hoped that, over time, such penalties on his cronies would increase their levels of discontent. The eventual goal of which is to ramp up the pressure on Putin himself, ultimately forcing Putin to moderate his foreign policy or risk the wrath of the very oligarchs, siloviki, and various kleptocrats that enable him to retain power and enrich himself at the expense of the Russian people. Furthermore, though it will be distasteful to impact those kleptocrats’ family members that are genuinely innocent, it must be recognized that sanctions are, after all, a national security tool, and one that is less damaging to innocents than bullets and bombs. 

Furthermore, while the UK and the rest of the West would certainly benefit from a global kleptocracy initiative that strengthens the collective security of Western nations, agreement on such a universal process may be hard to come by. Therefore, while a more limited process, specifically targeting an increasing number of individuals close to Putin for sanctions would hopefully ramp up domestic pressure on Putin to moderate his aggressive behavior abroad. As was said in the film The Usual Suspects, to show some men of will what will really was, Keyser Söze went after the mob that attacked his family by killing their kids, their wives, their parents, and their parents’ friends, burning down the houses they live in and the stores that they work in.

While obviously not a real world parallel, there is a kernel of a lesson for UK officials to draw from the story of Keyser Söze, which is that to truly send a message, collateral damage cannot be a consideration, and sometimes must actually be the goal. While obviously not advocating for state-sanctioned killings, the idea of, in some way, going after those close to the criminal carries undeniable allure, as it allows governments to asymmetrically ratchet up the stakes of the dispute. Therefore, while it is unlikely to be the path chosen, “Keyser Söze”-style sanctions might be an interesting path for the UK to pursue, giving it a greater chance to impact Russian foreign policy without resorting to sending troops into eastern Europe. As MP Liam Byrne said, if the UK government is not going to send bombers or soldiers to Ukraine’s aid, it can at least target the oligarchs and their enablers.

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The Downward Spiral: The Dire Aid Situation in Syria

February 18, 2022

On January 24, the UN Deputy Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria Crisis Mark Cutts, briefing journalists on the situation in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Northern Syria, said that, “We’re extremely concerned about the situation there. As you know, one of the most vulnerable populations in the world is living in that area. There are 2.8 million displaced people, most of them are in camps. These camps are bad at the best of times because it’s a war zone; people have fled from many different parts of the country. They’re living there in very difficult conditions. But now, during this extremely cold weather, we have seen some real horror scenes in the last few days.” A few days later, on January 27, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths stated before a meeting of the Security Council that, as the conflict enters a second decade, the bare minimum for relief, civilian protection, and access to basic social services is not being provided to Syrians, arguing that, “Failure each year cannot be our strategy.”

As has been noted elsewhere, with a $4.2 billion price tag, the UN’s Humanitarian Response Plan for Syria is the largest such program in the world. However, today the program is less than 50% funded, and even if funding were to increase, it is unlikely to meet the needs of the ever-expanding number of Syrians who are in desperate need of food aid. As Under-Secretary-General Griffiths said back in September 2021, “Syria is caught in a downward spiral,” and it is incumbent on the world to do more, as, “failure to invest in resilience activities will likely lead to greater humanitarian need and increased tensions.”

Nonetheless, as Griffiths later noted, “despite, however, these daunting circumstances…we can continue to make a difference with smart funding and creative humanitarian efforts.” Indeed, creative efforts is exactly what is being offered in a recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Natasha Hall, whose recent report, “Rescuing Aid in Syria,” recognizes that aid delivery to Syria is at an inflection point and that there needs to be a dramatic change in strategy if injustice and deprivation are not to be the fate of millions of Syrians. 

Hall’s report, which offers a thorough look at both how the situation deteriorated to this point and possible pathways out of the morass, does not pull punches, noting how many of Syria’s problems result from the poor choices made by donor governments. What becomes abundantly clear from Hall’s report is that if the West wants to do more to alleviate the dire humanitarian situation in Northern Syria, there needs to be a number of fundamental changes to the nature, design, and implementation of aid programs, as the situation seems only likely to worsen in the coming year.

The Broken Aid Situation in Syria

Early in her report, Hall notes that Western governments have contributed over $40 billion to humanitarian efforts in Syria since the crisis broke out in 2011, with the European Union putting in $25 billion and the U.S. another $13.5 billion. But despite that funding, the aid situation has continued to deteriorate, with 12.4 million Syrians now struggling to find a meal—a 50% increase from between 2020-2021. Furthermore, more than 500,000 children under the age of five suffer from stunted growth due to malnutrition, according to former Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock. 

Despite these issues, at the UN Security Council, Russia and China have combined to shut down three of the four open border crossings into Syria, with a potential veto of the final crossing, Bab al-Hawa, looming later this year. Further, as noted in the non-profit organization Security Council Report’s February 2022 Monthly Forecast for Syria, “Despite the uninterrupted delivery of humanitarian assistance stemming from [UN Security Council Resolution] 2585’s automatic extension, the humanitarian situation in Syria remains dire. The country continues to contend with an ever-worsening economic situation, rising food and fuel prices, increased unemployment, and a growing COVID-19 caseload.” What’s more, if the Bab al-Hawa crossing is shuttered, the UN aid response will be forced to flow through Damascus, which has a long history of diverting aid for its own benefit. Making matters worse, across the north, the Islamic State continues to conduct attacks, most recently, in late January 2022, raiding Ghwayran prison in the northeastern city of Hasakah, home to at least 3,500 suspected IS members, including some group leaders. 

Hall then proceeds to divide her analysis into the aid response in areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF); in opposition-controlled areas; and in government-controlled areas, noting the peculiar difficulties involved in providing aid to each region, along with some explanations for how the situation got so bad. 

Aid Response in Areas Controlled by the SDF

Hall begins the section by noting that while Syria is mostly a poor country, the resources that it does have come predominantly from the country’s Northeast, a region home to approximately 70% of the country’s wheat and oil production. However, the region has never seen much in return from the government for generating so much of the country’s wealth, and when combined with record-setting droughts, the ongoing conflict, and uncertainty regarding the region’s political future, it has led to the agricultural sectors collapse, with major impacts not just for the region’s people, but the country’s as a whole. The region, which is controlled by the Kurdistan Workers Party-affiliated (PKK) Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), has seen its infrastructure decimated and tens of thousands of its children either particularly educated under Islamic State curricula or not at all, all the while clusters of Turkish, Russian, U.S., and Iranian soldiers have participated in skirmishes throughout the area. 

However, despite these challenges, Hall notes that aid workers consider SDF-controlled areas more conducive to programming than the other parts of Syria, though it is not without its challenges. Specifically, Hall notes that 1.8 of the 3 million Syrians living in SDF-held areas currently are in need of humanitarian assistance, and that figure is only rising. As mentioned, drought has heavily impacted the region’s wheat production, with humanitarian agencies pegging the 2021 crop yield at just 5% of 2020 yields, devastating the livelihoods of the 40% of the region’s population that depend on agriculture and livestock. Furthermore, low water levels of the Euphrates River, shutdowns and reduced capacity at Alok water station, and other disruptions, have combined to severely impact reliable water access, threatening drinking water for 5.4 million people in the country. 

Further complicating the situation is the fact that many donor governments, and the Assad regime—which views the AANES and SDF as terror organizations—restrict the ability of non-governmental organizations and UN agencies to work with the AANES, hampering the overall aid response, and increasing the burden placed on non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Another complication is the fact that the SDF does not control the entirety of the country’s northeast, with Turkey in control of northern Syria’s “Peace Springs” zone after having conducted an operation there to nominally eliminate terrorists, secure the Turkish border, and aid in the return of Syrian refugees. However, Ankara’s true objective may have been to, “push the SDF back from the Turkish border, weaken the group’s prospects for political autonomy, drive a wedge in the U.S.-SDF partnership, and dilute the Kurdish population on the border to disrupt communications between Syrian and Turkish Kurds,” according to a May 2021 report from the Center for American Progress’ Max Hoffman and Alan Makovsky. What’s more, while Turkey has provided aid to civilians living in the area, it has come with subordination to Turkish governors, who exert Ankara’s control over life in towns like Tal Abyad and Ras al-’Ain. 

Other things complicating the aid response include the fact that PKK’s control over the AANES has led to a situation where the Autonomous Administration is unwilling to devolve power to Arab leaders, which, when combined with the deteriorating economic conditions, have led locals to protest the AANES in regions like Deir ez-Zor and Hasakah. Further, both civil society and NGO groups feel that Kurdish areas are advantaged by the SDF/AANES, and this perceived inequality deepens intercommunal mistrust, which, when combined with previous SDF offenses—including the forced conscription of teachers and the mandatory instruction of students in PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan’s teachings—only exacerbates existing tensions and makes future inter-communal trust-building more difficult. 

Source: https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/229-raqqas-shaky-recovery.pdf

All of that being said, Hall does note that the SDF-held Northeast Syria is easier to work in for NGOs. She asserts that the larger issue is a lack of a coordinated plan for the region which tackles issues in a comprehensive manner, as insecurity and corruption remain the primary barriers to aid provision in the area. Part of this failure is due to the UN Security Council Resolution 2585, which, as part of the compromise keeping the al-Yarubiyah border crossing open, required UN agencies to gain Damascus’ approval for work in SDF-held areas. This requirement, along with UN Security Council Resolution 2504—the mandate requiring the UN and NGOs to work with Assad loyalists to provide aid in Northeast Syria—has led to aid responses being limited, or halted entirely. Some Arab doctors have even refused to work for the AANES, “likely because of concerns for their longer-term protection in the event of the Syrian Government’s return to power in the northeast (or parts thereof). These fears are well-founded, as the experience of reconciled communities suggests perceived opposition sympathizers will be arrested, conscripted, and/or prohibited from returning to work if such steps are deemed prudent by Government security services,” according to a March 2021 report from the Center for Operational Analysis and Research. Finally, as Hall notes, during the first phase of the vaccine rollout in Syria, the Northeast received only 1% of the 1.02 million doses the country received, and due to the closure of the al-Yarubiyah crossing, aid workers in the area say that they lack a robust cold supply chain for vaccine delivery.

The overall consequences of all of these impediments is that it creates an overall sense of uncertainty, precluding greater investment in the region, and pushing the populace ever closer to a humanitarian disaster. Hall therefore notes that the aid response is ultimately hampered by Western demands that a political transition to democratic rule occur before reconstruction funds will be provided. 

In essence, as events on the ground have demonstrated, the Assad regime is unlikely to be toppled any time soon. Therefore, the West must recognize that its insistence on a political transition, which must occur before any reconstruction funds may be provided, will only hamper a more comprehensive strategy that addresses the region’s water, energy, telecommunications, food, and insurgency issues. Without a more robust plan to improve service delivery, provide security, and reintegrate Islamic State fighters, local grievances will only continue to proliferate, making the situation ever more insecure in the future.

Aid Response in Opposition-Controlled Areas 

Hall’s report then proceeds to examine the situation in opposition-held areas in Northwest Syria, home to 4 million people, ⅔ of whom were forcibly displaced to the area. Furthermore, despite a Turkish-Russian ceasefire signed back in March 2020, the area has seen some of the most intense aerial attacks in the war, which continue to this day. Furthermore, Turkey and its various proxies campaigns to take territory in Afrin have displaced tens of thousands, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) designation as a terror group has further impeded aid delivery to the region. 

Today, Hall notes, violence, large IDP populations, and the pandemic have all combined to stretch aid to its limits in Northwest Syria, with the number of people in need increasing from 2.8-3.4 million between 2020 and 2021 alone. Coupled with the Trump administration’s 2018 cuts to stabilization assistance in Syria, it has combined to push the region to the brink of humanitarian catastrophe

In areas under its control, Turkey has developed its own structures to regulate aid delivery to the region, principally operating through provincial governments and Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, which distribute food and other aid to the local population.  More specifically, in HTS-held Idlib and western Aleppo, the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) has been established by HTS in order to manage aid work and consolidate civilian administration over Idlib. In SSG-controlled areas, NGOs are restricted in their ability to work, needing to obtain permits from the SSG’s Ministry of Development and Humanitarian Affairs for each individual aid project. Such strictures often do not align with donor or NGO rules, meaning that some organizations either need to cease operations in SSG-administered areas, or try to dangerously circumvent those rules. 

Source: https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/69657/Khayrallah%20al-Hilu%20-%20The%20Turkish%20Intervention%20in%20Northern%20Syria%20One%20Strategy%20Discrepant%20Policies.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Despite Turkish efforts to improve the situation in the north of Syria and to encourage refugees to return, there are a number of specific challenges posed by both Turkish and HTS control over these areas. When it comes to Turkey, the main issues are that its military forces, including its proxies—many of which operate under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army (SNA)—have created challenges for the aid response. Since the 2016 attempted coup in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has cracked down on his perceived enemies, which has included international NGOs (INGOs) working on the aid response in Syria, causing chaos and forcing many of them to downsize or relocate. Relatedly, Ankara has also limited further international involvement in aid delivery, both out of fear of potential NGO enemies, and due to a belief that Turkey should be managing the aid response, with Western funding. 

Finally, Hall notes that when Russia closed the Bab al-Salameh crossing into Aleppo in 2020, it naturally increased Turkish control over aid to the region, as NGOs had to stop working in areas served by the crossing. All of this has allowed Ankara and its SNA to interfere with aid programming, resulting in a situation where the local economy suffers. For example, Hall notes that the SNA often levies arbitrary taxes on various stages of manufacturing and agricultural processes, making it more costly for farmers and manufacturers to bring their goods to product at a reasonable price point. Ultimately, Ankara is the key to controlling these groups, but without more high-level diplomacy towards Erdoğan, Western leverage will be limited. Moreover, Turkey may be tempted to trade control of parts of Idlib to the regime in exchange for Damascus and Moscow providing Ankara with guarantees about the shared border, and acquiescence to a long-term Turkish presence in certain parts of the country. 

That said, Turkey is not the only problematic actor when it comes to opposition-held areas. When discussing the challenges posed by HTS’ control over parts of the northwest, Hall notes that the primary difficulty is the group’s designation as a terror entity by the U.S., Russia, European Union, and United Nations, which makes it difficult for NGOs to conduct operations in areas under its control. Here, Hall argues that what is needed is a unified UN and donor response which creates a regulatory framework that allows for the humanitarian sector to provide aid to regions in HTS control, while simultaneously avoiding Western sanctions. While the populations near-universal dependence on assistance, along with minimal HTS interference in healthcare and primary education, eventually required programming to return after HTS took over in 2019, U.S. stabilization funding never returned after it was pulled by the Trump administration, resulting in  years of missed classes for children and young adults, who lost out on vital educational years. In addition, HTS’ regulations on hawala money transfer agents have impacted the ability of aid organizations to conduct operations in the area, as HTS’ supervisory Public Monetary Authority’s decrees carry with them onerous data requirements, which in turn create donor-compliance issues for NGOs, which have strict requirements on how their programming may not benefit HTS. 

All of this demonstrates how a lack of redlines from donor governments has enabled HTS and its Syrian Salvation Government to test the waters on how it can horn in on aid dollars. Hall notes that without engagement and more consistent diplomacy, HTS could not only further exploit the situation in future gray areas, further inhibiting the ability of donors to create long-term plans that move past simply providing life-saving assistance. 

Ultimately, the consequences of the current situation, for opposition-held areas, is that instead of using Turkish and Western aid and talks of international legitimacy to exert some level of influence over HTS, and its leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, they have allowed the group to repeatedly interfere with aid deliveries and institute taxes on populations living under their control. Hall argues that instead, Western states need to do more to empower local civil society to operate without interference from the de facto governance structures of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. However, any plan to help civilians in Northwest Syria must recognize that Ankara is the most important local player, with their forces being the only thing preventing the regime from controlling another four million Syrians. With the Russian veto threat hanging over the fate of the Bab al-Hawa crossing—and aid organizations unable to pick up the slack in such an event—unless there is some breakthrough with Damascus over the provision of crossline aid that will actually reach the people in the northwest, the situation will remain bleak for the civilian population living there.

Aid Response in Government-Controlled Areas

Finally, Hall’s report looks at how aid has made its way to areas under the control of Damascus. The report argues that the aid sector has had to make a number of compromises with the regime in order to continue the provision of aid, especially as the government continued to make progress on the battlefield. As Damascus began to eliminate the opposition as a viable military force, with massive Russian military assistance, it gained a greater degree of control over the aid response, forcing out many NGOs by criminalizing their work. Coupled with massive de-risking restrictions and vetting requirements from implementing partners and banks, bureaucratic hurdles from both Damascus and the West hinder or obstruct the delivery of aid to areas under regime control. Combined with massive U.S. and EU sanctions, it restricts NGOs ability to operate, while often not even having a clear impact on the intended regime targets. However, what is abundantly clear is that the West needs to do more if it is to alleviate the suffering of the over eight million Syrians in need of assistance that live in government-controlled areas. 

As noted elsewhere, the government-led aid response is organized through a complex structure, the High Relief Committee, which is headed by Syria’s Minister of Local Administration and the Environment. Together, with heavy input from the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC), the regime oversees the distribution of some 60% of UN relief funds. However, it should be noted that these structures are exclusively run by the state, with neither UN nor INGO participation in committee deliberations. While Hall notes that the number of registered NGOs has increased from twenty-four to forty-one in the past few years, Damascus still retains a tight grip over the approval process, and once registered, requires NGOs to meet onerous requirements, such as sending minutes of meetings and reports to the Ministry or even sharing a bank account with the SARC from which both parties would need to approve a disbursement of funds. Hall further states that even with approval from Damascus, local government actors still retain a great deal of control over aid provision, and as such, recalcitrant local government actors can impede entire projects on the ground if they decide to be obstructive. 

Further complicating the situation in government-held areas is a systematic manipulation of the aid response by the government. Specifically, Hall points to the regime’s lobbying of the UN to amend UN General Assembly Resolution 48/182 so that Damascus would gain more control over the aid response. The text of the document’s third guiding principle, which says that, “The sovereignty, territorial integrity and national unity of States must be fully respected in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations. In this context, humanitarian assistance should be provided with the consent of the affected country and in principle on the basis of an appeal by the affected country,” is not enough for Damascus, which wanted the text changed to read “full consent”, so that it would better be able to harass aid workers and interfere in the aid response of impartial humanitarian actors like the Red Cross. 

All of this results in a situation where Syria is one of the most dangerous countries in the world for aid workers, a situation that is even more dire for Syrian workers and their families, whom the government routinely threaten with arrest. In addition, aid access is increasingly tough to gain in areas formerly under opposition control, where tens of thousands may be held in detention camps or made to disappear entirely as the government attempts to secure the area. Finally, the government has also passed legislation to block residents of formerly opposition-held areas from ever being able to return to their homes, complicating discussions of providing Damascus with reconstruction funds, as such funds would not necessarily be going to the original land or homeowners. 

In addition to depriving civilians of aid, Damascus has learned how to better divert aid, stealing food from World Food Programme food baskets for its military, and skimming from the top of UN aid by manipulating the exchange rate for Syrian pounds. Finally, problems in UN procurement processes lead to groups like the Aleppo Defenders Legion, responsible for the destruction of large swathes of the city, being paid to clear rubble and repair water pipes in the very same city they just ravaged. 

While Hall notes that it is clear that the UN needs better oversight of the groups with which it works in Syria, it is similarly self-evident that donors cannot get anything done in government-held areas without working with sanctioned actors, as they are all too often the only ones with the power to get things done. The question, going forward, is how to reach populations in need with the fewest restrictions possible. Here, Hall notes that while bureaucratic impediments from Damascus have been the primary thing hindering the aid response, the UN still underestimates how much of an effect bureaucratic constraints can have in hindering aid provision. Hall argues that if the West wants to conquer these issues and provide aid to the large segments of the population that have been left out, aid agencies need the backing of donor governments to enforce UN rules for aid, not allowing Damascus to impede aid delivery simply because they feel it violates their conception of “sovereignty.” 

If more is not done to improve aid delivery in government-controlled areas, especially with the possibly imminent closure of Bab al-Hawa, it could have a terrible impact on the lives of the civilian population. However, the West is in a tough position, as it is unlikely that the Assad regime has learned much from the past decade of conflict. Moreover, Damascus will be unlikely to compromise when Syria’s neighbors are already pushing for an end to Assad’s isolation, especially as the U.S. cuts a deal with Russia to ease political pressure on Syria at the UN. Hall notes that while the need to move from emergency assistance to some kind of resiliency-building and reconstruction is clearly self-evident, the regime has put itself in a position to profit from the seemingly inevitable provision of reconstruction or early recovery aid.

Hall’s Recommendations

Hall finishes her report with a number of thoughts, as well as recommendations for donor governments and civil society to incorporate into future aid programming. She notes that, as is often the case, day to day crisis management has forced donors and the aid community in Syria to muddle through, limping along as best they can. However, Hall argues that even if the goal is simply preventing further displacement of civilians and the reemergence of the Islamic State, the steps that have been taken so far will be insufficient to the task—as the same underlying conditions which led to the initial uprising are not only still present, but far worse than a decade ago. She notes that aid alone will not be enough to save those experiencing insecurity and deprivation—that it needs to be coupled with relentless international diplomacy to facilitate ceasefires and use Western leverage over the regime to gain more access to those in need. The Assad regime, HTS and its attendant governance structures, and Ankara all need Western humanitarian assistance to keep the situation in much of the country from exploding into a repeat of the 2015 refugee crisis, sending the country into a spiral of chaos and misery. In the meantime, Russia will merely continue to take advantage of a lack of cohesive and comprehensive plans from donor countries, allowing its partners in Damascus to reap the benefits of aid while consolidating its battlefield gains. If Western nations want to see a change in the status quo, they need to do more to make informed choices in Syria; engage in more consistent diplomacy and negotiations; increase the resilience of local communities in Syria; and protect the provision of aid so that it is delivered to those it is supposed to go to, without regime interference. 

Hall argues that donors need a government-led working group, composed of regional experts and those with experience providing aid in Syria, to optimize the aid response. These individuals and agencies can more readily assess where aid is reaching and where it is not, figuring out why it is impeded, and how to better design programs in the future so that aid dollars stretch as far as possible. In addition, such a working-group could harmonize the overall aid response, avoiding unnecessary duplication. 

When it comes to conducting more conscientious diplomacy, Hall states that donors need to provide an empowered mediator with the resources and backing needed to conduct negotiations on behalf of the entire aid sector in Northwest and Northeast Syria, with the hope that collective negotiation will help limit regime interference in aid provision. At the regional level, for instance, Hall argues that Turkey needs to be more involved in high-level discussions to address water issues in the Northeast, due to Turkish control over the Euphrates. Furthermore, more work needs to be done to mediate negotiations between the PKK and Ankara, reducing the prevalence of conflict that impedes aid delivery. Finally, Turkey can help facilitate cross-border aid access to areas under their control for both local and international NGOs, which would go a long way to improve the situation in the Northwest and Northeast. 

In addition to more engagement with Turkey, other neighbors should be brought in for diplomatic consultation, working with them to safeguard the principle of non-refoulement of refugees, as Syria is not presently safe to return to. Moreover, Hall advocates expanding third country resettlement for refugees, with the U.S. prioritizing resettlement as a good faith effort to meet the commitments of European and Middle Eastern countries that have already played host to large numbers of refugees. Unfortunately, prior to this point, the U.S. has shamefully done the opposite

At the international level, Hall advocates that donor countries work with other UN member states to advocate for renewal of the Bab al-Hawa border crossing mandate, with a greater recognition amongst all states that there exists an unalienable right to unfettered humanitarian assistance under international law. Similarly, Hall argues that the international community needs to do more to secure ceasefires and find solutions to issues like the present situation at al-Hol refugee camp.

When it comes to improving the ability of Syrians to survive future shocks, it must be first recognized that stability needs to exist before there can be a shift to resiliency programming. As noted above, though some UN members have already indicated a desire to move towards early recovery, individual countries can have various interpretations of that particular concept. However, any such shift to building state capacity will likely run into Western donor restrictions, there is a need to boost community resilience where possible. Specifically, there is a need to support the education and health sectors in Syria, as poor health and education outcomes are often key drivers of unrest. Further, there needs to be improvements in cold chains in the Northeast and Northwest in order to better provide for COVID vaccine distribution, and there needs to be more work done with the WHO to anonymize vaccine recipients. 

When it comes to the facilitation of aid, Hall argues that while sanctions are important—as they are intended to eliminate funds going to bad actors—it is inescapable that they complicate the aid response. As currently constructed, there exists a lack of incentives for financial institutions to take on any additional risk, and it is, as has been noted by others, a fundamental issue that needs to be addressed. To that end, donors need to engage in dialogue with banks, insurance companies, suppliers, shippers, and money transfer agencies, assuring them that they will not be subject to sanctions for assisting in the provision of humanitarian aid. Whether that involves more frequent provision of “comfort letters” to such businesses or changes to existing sanctions legislation creating specific carve-outs, more needs to be done to encourage such businesses to not shy away from continuing such operations. 

Furthermore, Hall argues that there needs to exist legal protections for NGOs to work with and alongside designated groups, as it is all too often impossible to provide aid in certain areas of the country without having some kind of contact with a sanctioned individual or group. Over the long-term, Hall states that donors need to create a viable banking payment channel for the movement of humanitarian funds into Syria, and give NGOs the ability to operate under the same umbrella as the UN, giving them a broad mandate that provides them with the freedom of action needed to complete their operations. While such a general license should not get in the way of reporting requirements—so that governments know who the groups and individuals that NGOs are dealing with—it should permit NGOs to work with a greater variety of groups and individuals when providing aid. 

Finally, Hall states that donors and regional organizations such as the European Union need to coordinate on sanctions, compliance, and enforcement issues, so that NGOs do not run into a maze of differing policies from the U.S., UN, EU, and other, individual, states. Better coordination and support from these countries and organizations would help donors and aid providers provide aid to those that need it, without the massive abuse and waste that appears endemic when working in Syria. 

Closing Thoughts and Further Recommendations

Ultimately, Hall’s report paints a bleak picture of the aid situation in Syria. With Damascus exerting ever more control over the country, Russia and China threatening to end the last humanitarian border crossing, and the violence and economic devastation only increasing, the Western aid response is, more and more, showing its limitations. As has been mentioned by Hall and others, there is no way to simply undo the damage caused by a decade of conflict and war. Furthermore, prospects for a change in the status quo are dim, and it appears that the Assad regime will remain in power for the foreseeable future. Therefore, Hall outlines, the Western response should instead concentrate on improving aid provision as much as possible, consolidating and using the leverage that Western countries have—as they are the likely providers of future reconstruction funds. 

Building on Hall’s report, another way to improve the provision of aid in Syria—especially in areas under Turkish control—would be to work with Ankara on streamlining the permit process which regulates NGOs working in Turkish-held areas of Syria. Part of that streamlining might be to negotiate a bi- or multilateral registration process for NGOs between the U.S. and Turkey or between the U.S., EU, and Turkey, so that aid providers that are certified by the U.S. or EU are able to work in Turkish-controlled territory without any further approvals. As part of that process— as NGOs already must coordinate project implementation with the relevant Turkish provincial or Syrian municipal government—the three sides could set up a bilateral project implementation oversight board. Such a board could allow Ankara to retain the lead, while still allowing for some Western input, so that projects are not unduly obstructed by Turkey, while still being acceptable to donor governments.  

Another issue that Hall touched on, but which merits further elaboration, is that UN member states need to advocate more strongly for the renewal of the cross-border mandate keeping the Bab al-Hawa crossing open. If the Biden administration is going to keep reiterating its commitment to the “international rules-based order”, then unfettered aid provision should be one of the key commitments that it asks all countries to abide by. Furthermore, customary international law clearly states that the unfettered provision of humanitarian aid to civilians in need should not be abridged. Moreover, while humanitarian personnel are required to respect domestic law on access to territory, the Fourth Geneva Convention imposes an obligation on the occupying power to ensure food and medical supplies reach the population. As noted elsewhere, the impediment of aid operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina was widely condemned at the UN Security Council, with support from both China and Russia, the two countries behind the veto of the border-crossing. Therefore, as Hall notes, the U.S. and its European partners need to do more in international fora to work with member states to advocate for renewal of the cross-border mandate. 

However, what will not help is more sanctions and threats to isolate Damascus at the expense of the civilian populace. While it is regime actions that are, of course, ultimately responsible for the dire humanitarian situation in Syria, after ten years of conflict and sanctions, it is not only the regime that is responsible for the situation on the ground. Over a year after they have been implemented, Caesar Act sanctions have not had their desired result, hurting the Syrian people almost as much as it has Assad or his cronies. Further, the regime is as entrenched as ever, and with regional countries lining up to restore normalized relations, even the U.S. has recognized that it possesses limited leverage over Damascus if it is not interested in sending more troops to the country. 

While the U.S. retains a strong rhetorical commitment to UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which requires a roadmap for political transition in order to end the conflict, functionally, the U.S. stance has softened, as neighboring states exhibit a desire to return Syria to the regional fold. Therefore, if it wants to prevent the humanitarian situation from worsening the only choice seemingly left for the U.S. is to pursue the least-bad of all remaining options, which would involve carefully managing Syria’s normalization. Such a process would involve working with regional players such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE in order to combine Western and Middle Eastern leverage over Assad to get him to agree to things such as the release of detainees, humanitarian access and transparent monitoring mechanisms of aid delivery. In exchange, Damascus would get the recovery and reconstruction funding it so sorely desires. Such a tit-for-tat exchange is possible, but only if there is greater coordination between Syria’s donor countries on how to exert their leverage. While it is undoubtedly true that Damascus is unlikely to change its spots on its own, international pressure and financial leverage are the best avenues remaining to try and influence Assad’s behavior. 

Analysts may howl that capitulation to the Syrian regime will unleash a host of unforeseen consequences, from encouraging an Islamic State return, to undermining norms on the use of weapons of mass destruction, but it will not change the facts on the ground: that Russian and Iranian military support has enabled the Assad regime to weather the initial crisis and cement his rule in Damascus. 

Should the U.S. and its allies have been more committed to removing Assad once he made use of chemical weapons in 2013? Absolutely. However, it does not change the fact that Europe and the U.S. are unlikely to send troops back into the Middle East anytime soon. Therefore, as distasteful as it is to do anything that will provide a benefit to the regime in Damascus, the primary consideration must be helping improve the lives of the 12.4 million Syrians who are currently food insecure, as every year that passes does irreparable damage to the lives of Syrians trapped there, especially the half a million adolescents, whose stunted growth who may experience negative long-term effects, including poor cognition and educational performance, lost productivity, and an increased risk of nutrition-related chronic diseases in adult life. 

There needs to be a greater effort on the behalf of Western countries to dangle the carrot of reconstruction funds in the face of the Assad regime, in exchange for agreements that ensure the provision of humanitarian access in future years, as emergency humanitarian aid has reached the limits of its ability to improve the situation for Syrian communities. If Western donors want to assist Syrians in being more resilient to future shocks, it will require donor governments to work with Damascus on the provision of some type of reconstruction aid, if only in the health and education sectors. If Western governments do not begin to show more flexibility on the issue, the aid situation in Syria will only continue to deteriorate, and sanctions will damage the lives of civilians without affecting the regime targets they are intended to. 

It is tremendously disheartening that Damascus will, in any way, be rewarded for its behavior over the past decade, but wishes are not horses, and at a certain point, there comes a time when the decision must be made to aid as many people as possible. Due to support from Moscow and Tehran, a decade of civil war has failed to oust the Assad regime from power. That does not mean that Western donors should compound Syrians misery by insisting on changes to the regime that will not be forthcoming, withholding vitally needed reconstruction aid until some far off day when Assad decides to step down. 

Instead, it is time to salvage the best deal possible, and work with international and regional allies to demonstrate to Syrians that the West will do what it can to save the lives of as many Syrians as possible. Whether that deal involves a more federal structure for the north, which permits those living there some degree of relative autonomy to live their lives without direct interference from Damascus, or simply agreements to not unduly penalize certain ethnic groups, the West must recognize that without some kind of further military commitment, its options to limit the suffering in Syria are dwindling.
Continuing to limp along is just not an acceptable solution, as it ignores the suffering of millions of Syrians who cannot simply wait a few more years or more for a change in the status quo. While a return to any degree of regime control in Northeast and Northwest Syria will have damaging consequences for members of the opposition, the status quo is not much better for over ¾ of the population in the first place. In addition, Russia’s endgame in Syria does not appear to be the expulsion of all foreign powers, merely the U.S. and Europe. Coupled with the fact that Moscow has little desire to foot the bill for Syria’s reconstruction, there is some room for a deal to be made that provides some degree of autonomy for U.S. partners, while still acknowledging that Syria is in the end-game and that UN Security Council Resolution 2254’s requirements for a political transition will remain largely unmet. While the U.S. and its other Western partners should be up front with partners like the SDF, and conduct any negotiations with Damascus, Moscow, and Ankara in consultation with them, it is time to start to work on a deal with the Assad regime that salvages the best possible future for civilians in the country. To otherwise permit millions of Syrians to needlessly suffer, while the likelihood of altering the regime’s position remains so remote, is simply an unconscionable strategic and moral failure.

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A Strategic and Moral Imperative: Protecting Civilians in U.S. and NATO Military Operations

February 11, 2022

In a February 2 piece for War on the Rocks, authors Thomas J. Gordon, Adam Older, Laurie Blank, and Jill Goldenziel examined the role of wargaming in the context of improving military leaders’ ability to think, innovate, and make decisions against a real adversary, while still observing the rule of law. In their piece, titled, “Lawyers, Guns, and Twitter: Wargaming the Role of Law In War”, the authors looked at this year’s Marine Corps Command and Staff College wargames, which focused on the compliance with the law of armed conflict. Specifically, the authors note that, “in partnership with the National Defense University and the Emory University School of Law’s International Humanitarian Law Clinic, the Marine Corps Command and Staff College implemented National Defense University’s ‘Burning Sands’ wargame for the student body of 213 midcareer military officers and civilian counterparts.” The scenario was designed to simulate a joint force command staff tasked with liberating a fictional, Islamic State-controlled city in North Africa, wherein the students were required to secure the town as quickly as possible, while keeping U.S. and coalition casualties to a minimum, while also complying with strict rules of engagement that included rigorous limits on civilian casualties. 

When presented with a hypothetical assault on a hospital that was overrun by the Islamic State, and converted into its new command center, the students had the option to conduct an air strike limiting coalition casualties, while possibly increasing civilian deaths. Alternatively, the students could recommend a ground assault, which would limit civilian casualties, while increasing the risk posed to coalition forces. When faced with tight time constraints, the students opted for the air strike. However, the students, on the game’s second turn, learned that hundreds of civilians died as the Islamic State filled the hospital with civilians to exploit their possible deaths. The resultant public relations hit caused European partner nations to pull out of the coalition, inhibiting the coalition’s ability to conduct further operations. 

Such an exact scenario—wherein allies rapidly depart a coalition in the face of domestic political pressure, brought on by the visual results of U.S. or coalition military actions—is somewhat unlikely. However, in light of coalition airstrikes inflicting civilian casualties in both Iraq and Syria—none of which prompted a coalition exodus—it is an ever-increasing possibility, given how social media has been exploited by enemy combatants to shape international perceptions of strikes. To that end, it is vital that the U.S. and its Allies and partners, particularly NATO members, do more to enshrine the protection of civilians (PoC) into their military doctrines and training. Otherwise, they invite ever-more-likely disaster, as the result of what may very well be unintended civilian casualties. Just as the Burning Sands wargame helps the Marine Corps Command and Staff college enable students to better understand how the law of war should inform future operational planning, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), and NATO planners need to do more to develop, disseminate, inculcate, and operationalize a protection of civilians policy that both aims to protect civilians from harm and understand both how and why mistakes happen. 

To that end, there have been a number of reports and papers in the past few years, all of which examine the ways in which the U.S., and its partners, have a long way to go before the protection of civilians is a truly integrated part of their operational design, implementation, and evaluation. Whether it is operations conducted by the U.S. alone, or more likely, in conjunction with international partners, U.S. decision makers need to prioritize PoC, not only to keep allies firmly on-side, but to prevent the creation of future enemy combatants through inadvertent, and unnecessary strikes on civilian targets or targets that may have civilians present. As noted in a 2010 National Bureau of Economic Research report, “in Afghanistan, [the authors] find strong evidence that local exposure to civilian casualties caused by international forces leads to increased insurgent violence over the long-run, what [they] term the ‘revenge’ effect.”

Furthermore, as the January 27, 2022 guidance from the Secretary of Defense to the Secretaries of the Military Departments, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Under Secretaries of Defense, Commanders of the Combatant Commands, the General Counsel of the Department of Defense, the Director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation, the Assistance to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs, and the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy states, “The protection of civilians is fundamentally consistent with effective, efficient, and decisive use of force in pursuit of U.S. national interests, and our efforts to mitigate and response to civilian harm are a direct reflection of U.S. values. It is a strategic and moral imperative.”

Strengthening the Protection of Civilians within NATO

At the 2016 NATO Summit in Warsaw, NATO Heads of State and Government endorsed NATO’s Policy on Protection of Civilians. This was a policy that had come about in part due to the Alliances’ experiences in out-of-area operations in Afghanistan, amongst other places, as well as advocacy from civil society, along with pushback from the United Nations member states, as well as from allies and partners, all in an effort to better prioritize the protection of civilians in military operations. As part of these efforts, military planners were encouraged to go beyond simple compliance with international humanitarian law, to more proactively prevent such tragedies from occurring in the first place.

However, as has been noted in several reports by the Stimson Center’s Strengthening NATO’s Ability to Protect project, along with a 2018 paper by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and a January 2022 report from the RAND Corporation, NATO still has a lot more to do if it wants to collect and implement lessons learned from past attempts or failures to protect civilians in combat operations. As noted in the CSIS report, “The Protection of Civilians in the U.S. Partnered Operations,” by Melissa Dalton, Jenny McAvoy, Denial Mahanty, Hijab Shah, Kelsey Hampton, and Julie Snyder—which discusses operations the U.S. conducts with partner forces in countries such as Nigeria or Syria—such operations are the most likely to result in harm to civilians, as the U.S. possesses less control over a partner’s behavior and operations, and there may exist mismatched threat perceptions between U.S. and partner decision makers. For instance, the CSIS author’s note that during Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq, the while military missions of the U.S. and coalition forces were focused primarily on the defeat of ISIS, the Iraqi government retained, “an overriding interest in its population’s security and ability to return to areas liberated from ISIS.” The authors state that such misalignment in goals and priorities towards protecting civilian populations can result in challenges, such as uncertainty over measures that will be used to minimize, account for, and respond to civilian harm that occurs as a result of military operations. 

As part of a process to achieve greater alignment between the U.S. and partner governments, the CSIS authors outline a number of ways to influence partner behavior, including: conditioning support on compliance with human rights and international humanitarian law (IHL);  providing the education, advice, and training needed to aid partner militaries in gaining the knowledge and experience needed to protect civilians in live operations; encouraging engagement with local non-governmental organizations and media in order to share information on the harmful effect of local military operations; engaging with those same NGOs and media organizations to share information in order to prevent unnecessary collateral damage from U.S., coalition, or partner strikes and assaults; and finally, by working with more religious, cultural, and judicial organizations, in-country, in order to more effectively message state security forces so that they make greater attempts to minimize harm to civilians in their operations.

However, the CSIS authors note that such alignment cannot be accomplished without first understanding the capabilities a partner possesses, along with the situational constraints that it faces, which include security force relations with local populations. Furthermore, they argue that the U.S. needs to put in place the criteria for terminating or suspending a partnership from the outset, so that partner nations understand what actions taken by their security forces will cause the U.S. to withdraw its support. Finally, the authors argue that the U.S. decision makers need to understand the differences between state forces and non-state armed groups (NSAGs), understanding that lower-level commanders of state security forces sometimes have lower levels of professionalism than those higher in the chain of command. In addition, the report maintains that U.S. planners need to understand that NSAGs, such as the Syria Democratic Forces, tend to go through adaptation and variation over time, and therefore, the U.S. need to be ready for challenges following the cessation of hostility, ensuring their demobilization and reintegration into society or the national armed forces. 

Other civilian protection elements the CSIS authors consider is that the U.S. needs to better be able to collect and analyze data and trends on civilian harm in military operations. They argue the U.S. should also be more transparent about any partnership arrangements and steps that are taken to mitigate the impact of partnered operations on civilian populations. In addition, they state that the U.S. military and civilian leadership needs to reinforce the importance of a partner command structure which prioritizes the protection of civilians and good, professional, conduct of their subordinates. Finally, the CSIS authors argue that the U.S. needs to make civilian protection a core policy element in all partnership activities, which will require a commitment from U.S. civilian decision makers to properly resource and staff such programs from the outset. Otherwise, they risk creating partnership programs that are insufficiently concerned about preventing civilian harm. Part of this will mean greater Department of Defense and Congressional oversight, and part will rely on the U.S. military doing more to reinforce good partner policy and practice. Finally, the report’s authors state that it will be incumbent on civil society organizations to dedicate the time and resources needed to understand military operations, so that they can ensure civilian perspectives are represented when discussing military planning and providing feedback on planned actions. 

Protection of Civilians in NATO Operations 

In addition to the CSIS report on how to improve civilian protection in military operations with partner countries, the Stimson Center has, over the past year, released a number of interesting reports outlining the steps that NATO partners should take to improve the protection of civilian in their operations, whether in their own backyard or during out-of-area operations. Beginning with, “Origins, Progress, and Unfinished Business: NATO’s Protection of Civilians Policy,” by Kathleen H. Dock, the report notes that there has been more momentum as of late to incorporate the protection of civilians into NATO policy. As mentioned above, through the 2016 Warsaw Summit’s communique and the resultant Policy for the Protection of Civilians, NATO has attempted to incorporate lessons learned from the prior two decades out-of-area military operations so that the Alliance can formulate a systematic, consistent process to collect and implement lessons towards the protection of civilians in conflict. 

While Dock notes that the Joint Analysis Lessons Learned Center (JALLC) in Lisbon does exist to support Alliance-wide implementation of NATO’s Lessons Learned policy, these processes tend to either be siloed or ineffective. For instance, Dock notes that while civil-society input was pivotal in shaping the 2016 Protection of Civilians Policy, the lessons learned from ISAF-Afghanistan formed the primary basis for the policy, with lessons from Operation Unified Protector in Libya—which had a specific, protection of civilians mandate—left out of the review process, making it unlikely that these lessons were formally captured for future operations. 

In addition to a disconnect between those lessons that were identified and those that were actually learned from, Dock notes that there is still much to do in terms of training and education of military forces on the protection of civilians. For instance, her paper argues that while there have been positive developments, such as the inclusion of the NATO-UN Protection of Civilians course as part of the Finnish Defense Forces International Center, there is still more work to do in getting military commanders and operators to view the protection of civilians as relevant to their intelligence, operations, and planning, and not just a matter of civil-military cooperation. As Dock argues, if the protection of civilians is not considered from the start, in the intelligence threat assessment, it will not be factored into subsequent operations. Therefore, the protection of civilians needs to become a core part of NATO military education for not just commanders, but for operators as well. 

In Dock’s research, the integration of the protection of civilians into operations has been historically highly personality- and experience-driven, with those that possess prior PoC experience appearing more likely to elevate it in training, planning, and their tactical guidance. However, Dock notes that there are currently no enforcing mechanisms requiring planners to look at mission design through the lens of PoC, and little guidance on how to do it effectively. The ultimate end result is operations with explicit mandates to protect civilians that still lack clear political direction and guidance on how, exactly, to achieve the goal.

To that end, Dock recommends several steps NATO planners and decision makers should take, including placing an emphasis on the protection of civilians by including it in the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept, and creating a protection of civilian action plan to cover the next three to five years. In addition, the military needs a better understanding of how the protection of civilians fits within future operating environments such as potential great-power conflict between the U.S and China. Dock further argues that NATO needs to do more to use lessons learned from past missions when attempting to devise future ones, and to incorporate training on PoC into mandatory NATO training. In terms of cross-NATO work, Dock states that the Alliance needs to map current allies’ national policies, doctrines, and training on civilian protection to better understand what opportunities exist to shift members’ doctrine so it aligns with overall NATO goals. She also contends that NATO needs to better define what human security truly means for NATO as a military organization, in addition to clarifying other policy agendas like the women, peace, and security and children and armed conflict to see how they can all more seamlessly fit together. Finally, the report closes with an argument for more staffing and resources for the work of protecting civilians at NATO HQ in Brussels. 

Another paper worth looking more deeply at is, “Future Urban Conflict, Technology, and the Protection of Civilians: Real-World Challenges for NATO and Coalition Missions,” which, like other Stimson Center papers, further delves into the importance of PoC, especially in future urban and littoral environments, where military operations can have disproportionately deleterious effects on local populations. As authors David Kilcullen and Gordon Pendleton point out, by the year 2050, 68% of the world’s population will reside in urban areas, which already are prime targets for military and terror attacks. In the paper, the authors note that the unique natures of both urban and littoral environments, especially when combined together in coastal cities, have such size and density that damage caused to transportation, education, health, public safety, or utility provision have outsized consequences on the local population, as every discrete attack has the potential to disrupt services to extremely large numbers of individuals. 

To illustrate their point, Kilcullen and Pendleton examine NATO experiences in Mosul from 2014-2017, along with the Philippines’ experience during the 2017 Battle of Marawi, noting that the urban environment come with unique challenges that must be addressed before combat is initiated, if the protection of civilians is to indeed by of the utmost importance in a military operation. As part of the lessons learned from the conflict in Mosul, where around 10,000 civilians ultimately perished, NATO discovered that there are a number of considerations that must be made, in order to limit civilian harm. These include controlling key infrastructure, including water and electrical generation, as a way to shape combat within the city; the importance of non-lethal effects such as information warfare, and its potential drawbacks; the need to provide facilities and medical services, as well as psychological treatment to local populations; the need to prevent the use of civilians as human shields; a need for greater care when targeting areas where collateral damage could be major; the management of non-combat evacuations and provision of humanitarian assistance so that ISIS fighters’ movements are restricted, but civilians’ are not; and a need to more specifically target messaging to reach specific communities. 

Similarly, in Marawi, the Philippine Armed Forces learned a variety of hard lessons, including a need to work with local and international NGOs to manage displaced persons flows; the need to protect civilians once they are displaced; and an understanding that urban devastation has a tremendous impact on civilians, which can carry on for years after the battle. 

Therefore, Kilcullen and Pendleton offer a number of suggestions for military planners to consider, along with more stringent rules of engagement to ensure that military strikes are carefully crafted, so as to limit collateral damage to civilians. While seemingly self-evident precautions to be taken, it is in some ways understandable how Western militaries have avoided constraining themselves in such ways, as these more onerous rules do make it tougher for militaries to conduct strikes and assaults. However, Kilcullen and Pendleton do propose a number of changes to rules of engagement that would better enable U.S. and NATO allied militaries to achieve their objectives in urban environments. These changes include requirements to conduct thorough intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance sweeps of an area over a period of time to establish the patterns of life in an area, so that planners can better understand the movement of civilians in a city; and restrictions on U.S. and coalition forces tunneling through civilian housing to reach adjacent targets. In addition, the authors propose limits on the specific types of munitions allowed to be used in an urban environment, focusing on using equipment that causes the least amount of collateral damage to people, housing, and essential services. Kilcullen and Pendleton also maintain that military commanders also take steps to ensure that civilians have access to communications, banning the use of jamming in certain electromagnetic bands or for a certain number of hours per day.

Protecting Civilians Within NATO Collective Defense

Looking closer to home, last year, the Stimson Center also released, “The Protection of Civilians within Collective Defense”, by Andrew Atkinson, which applied  a protection of civilians framework to NATO operations involving both Non-Article 5 Crisis Response Operations (NA5CRO) and Article 5 defense of Alliance members. In the report, Atkinson essentially argues that, while new technology has made the battlefield safer for soldiers, civilians are still exposed to the same level and type of risk that they have always been. Furthermore, he notes that recent experiences in Syria, Iraq, and Ukraine demonstrate how future conflicts will see adversaries using all levers available to them in order to gain an advantage, including the use of civilians as cover to prevent airstrikes, or countries ignoring the collateral damage caused to civilians by air and artillery strikes. Moving forward, it will be vital for the protection of civilians to be baked into all core planning and exercises, so that NATO troops are better able to understand the risks that civilians are exposed to, a process that can only be accomplished through information exchanges with academics, think tanks, and NGOs. 

Atkinson’s paper argues that in future NATO deployments, whether they are crisis-response operations abroad, or combat against a near-peer in NATOs own backyard, the provision of basic life needs to civilian populaces will be a fundamental element of achieving stability and preventing chaos. Atkinson submits that the Alliance should therefore do more to integrate PoC into mission planning, dedicating planning staff in order to identify threats to civilians from the outset of operation design. By making this a core part of a mission’s requirements, rather than simply tacking it on as an addendum afterwards—as is commonly done, currently—it will give commanders more freedom to make decisions, and they will gain a much better understanding of the battlespace. 

Finally, in “The Political and Diplomatic Case for Protection of Civilians at NATO,” by Andrew Hyde, the author argues that for NATO to obtain a truly enduring capacity to protect civilians, NATO leaders need to better resources the policy’s application, making it an integral part of the Alliance’s response to new threats. As part of that effort, Hyde argues that PoC needs to be more accurately defined, making clear where PoC fits within the NATO Human Security agenda. In addition, the author states that, as with Dock’s Origins, Progress, and Unfinished Business, the protection of civilians needs to be seen as an operations planning issue, and not simply a civil-military relations issue, which would better ensure that it has a larger role in operational design. 

In addition to recommending more liaising with outside experts, such as the think tank and international NGO communities, Hyde makes a number of specific suggestions to improve PoC’s position within NATO. These range from approaching the Civil-Military Relations Center of Excellence to provide further support for advancing the agenda throughout the Alliance, to developing standards so as to foster development of consistent national PoC policies among Alliance members. Furthermore, by leveraging the interest of a broader group of stakeholders, ranging from partners and Allies that already have robust national PoC policies, to engaging with civil society and the private sector, Hyde states that NATO will better be able to adapt the concept to address new threats, including potential near-peer competition in Europe.

Protection of Civilians and U.S. Civilian Casualty Policies

In addition to the work that needs to be done to protect civilians in NATO military operations, there is a great deal to be done to improve the U.S.’ own ability to prevent harm to civilians. In a report published on January 27, 2022 by the RAND Corporation, “U.S. Department of Defense Civilian Casualty Policies and Procedures: An Independent Assessment,” the authors Michael J. McNerney, Gabrielle Tarini, Karen M. Sudkamp, Larry Lewis, Michelle Grisé, and Pauline Moore argue that in U.S. military operations, there is a great deal more that needs to be done in order to better understand how U.S. operations may cause civilian harm, as well as how to prevent such harm from occurring again in the future. In the report, the authors outline how U.S. Department of Defense procedures for assessing harm caused to civilians during U.S. operations are sorely lacking. Some of the problem relates to the difficulty of tracking harm done to civilians in the fog of war, while some of it relates more to the fact that the DoD has not adequately resourced or staffed programs designed to track civilian harm. 

Essentially, the authors’ key findings include the fact that technological tools, such as video battle damage assessments, and data from ISR assets and full-motion video cameras in the area often paint incomplete pictures of the aftermath of U.S. strikes, as they cannot record damage that occurs below opaque surfaces, such as a collapsed roof. In addition, the authors note that DoD records on flight, strike, and targeting logs are often either simply not recorded due to the speed at which they were requested, or they are entered in by hand, and as such, subject to human error. There are also structural problems with the analysis of harm done to civilians, as the military seems sometimes fundamentally unable or unwilling to monitor for such harm. Instead, its focus is primarily on the effect of air strikes and tactical assaults on enemy combatants, with post-strike assessments mainly focused on how the strike helped achieve operational objectives. Another structural problem with the reporting of civilian harm in U.S. military operations is that the current standard is a 51% probability that a casualty resulted directly from U.S. operations, which means that when military sources show no direct evidence of civilian casualties, that is taken as justification to conclude that reports of civilian casualties were not credible. 

In addition, as it has in countries like Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the U.S. is usually conducting operations in conjunction with partner forces, and in those cases, it is frequently the case that the U.S. is unable or unwilling to monitor and track partner operations. It is often thought that reporting on possible civilian harm can potentially damage the relationship with partner security forces. Finally, the RAND authors note that, in geographic combatant commands such as U.S. European Command (EUCOM) and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), which are preparing themselves more for great-power conflict than for counterinsurgency or counterterrorism missions, there is the assumption amongst these commands that: as any potential combat would likely involve large numbers of civilian casualties, there is little reason to develop robust methods to review such incidents, as they will be too numerous to delve into many, if not most of them.

In addition to those barriers, which prevent better analysis and tracking of civilian harm incidents, the authors note that there are a number of shortcomings in current investigations into alleged civilian harm incidents. These range from the fact that Army Regulation 15-6, which governs investigations, lacks standardized reporting and dissemination requirements, which means that the type of details covered in each individual report differ, reducing the investigations’ relevance for subsequent operations. Further, investigations are generally treated as discrete events, with a failure to see how past mistakes can be, and have been, repeated. Additionally, these investigations are also subject to delays, when they are done at all. Specifically, the authors note that the DoD’s Civilian Casualty Tracking cells credibility assessment reports, which, while documenting as much U.S. military-produced information available as possible, does not make use of third-party assessments—meaning that it is likely that a large number of civilian harm incidents are either missed or insufficiently investigated.

As a result of this failure to accurately and comprehensively track, the Department of Defense’s responses have been inconsistent and confusing, with ex gratia payments being made to some families and not others, and the amounts distributed varying somewhat wildly between incidents. While DoD has issued some interim regulations, more needs to be done to create final guidance that addresses the full suite of possible responses to civilian harm incidents, giving commanders on the ground the ability to at least acknowledge harm, when it does occur.

Addressing Civilian Harm at DoD

Looking more specifically at the United States, while there are some guidelines for tracking harm done to civilians in U.S. military operations, they are lacking in several ways. To begin, the RAND report’s authors note that there is an overall lack of uniformity when it comes to the U.S. military’s geographic combatant commands (GCCs) and their ability to conduct civilian casualty tracking and reporting. For instance, the authors note that while U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) lacks a dedicated Civilian Casualty Tracking (CIVCAS) cell, it does have those cells at the individual task force headquarters, such as Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) or Operation Resolute Support’s Civilian Casualty Mitigation Team (CCMT). However, commands like EUCOM and INDOPACOM lack civilian casualty cells, and there appears to be a deal of resistance to creating such teams, because, as mentioned above, commanders feel that in the event of near-peer competition with Russia or China, they will lack the capability to conduct robust reviews 

Furthermore, the RAND report argues that the DoD is also lacking the policy, staffing, and resources to track and address civilian casualty incidents, as the Office of the Secretary of Defense lacks formal written guidance, staffing, and leadership attention on the issue, limiting the ability of individuals such as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Stability and Humanitarian Affairs to make better progress on the issue. Furthermore, within the Joint Staff, while there is an officer dedicated to supporting the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs on civilian casualty issues, that person is generally rotated out of the position within two to three years, making it difficult to retain vital institutional knowledge. At the individual service branches, things are just as bad, with each service being responsible for creating and implementing its own processes to mitigate and respond to incidents of civilian harm. Not only could the service branches do more to incorporate protection of civilians into all levels of military education, they would benefit from including more real-world examples of civilian harm assessments and investigations in order to aid students’ understanding of the underlying causes of civilian harm, as well as the ways to combat it in future operations. However, the RAND authors note that U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) has maintained its own civilian casualty tracking process, and through a robust review of strikes and assaults, developed a simulation at the Air Force Research Lab, enabling them to design simulations that contain enemy combatants, civilians, and those that are unknown, in order to better prepare for the types of problems operators will face in the combat environment. 

Therefore, the RAND authors offer a series of suggestions for the Department of Defense to improve its structures for addressing civilian harm. These range from: the dedication of more resources and personnel to the individual combatant commands to track civilian casualties; more training for personnel to incorporate prevention of civilian harm in operation design; better staffing the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Staffs to enable analysis of reports of civilian casualties; and giving the combatant commands strict guidance on the retention and transference of civilian casualty data once an operation is complete, so that institutional knowledge is retained for future missions. 

To improve the quality of the military’s assessments of civilian harm, the authors argue that DoD needs to expand the kind of information available to those conducting civilian casualty assessments in order to make them more robust. This includes incorporating data from NGOs and civil-society where possible, so that information from the military does not form the sole basis for determining whether a civilian casualty occurred. Relatedly, the U.S. could do with better tools to collect and store operational data related to civilian harm, including the information put together before a strike—such as a collateral damage estimate—info about the operation itself—such as location, date, time, and type of weapon used—and post-operation information—including both classified and open-source information. In addition to expanding the available to investigators on the sources of information on alleged civilian harm, the authors argue that the U.S. needs to better monitor partner forces, offering assistance to build their civilian casualty tracking abilities, as well. 

To improve overall investigations of civilian harm, the authors propose that DoD formulate a standardized reporting process, possibly based on the accident board and compliance investigations the FAA uses in commercial airline incidents, wherein individuals that provide information to investigators are offered protection from legal or disciplinary action. The goal of such a process is to recognize that, while accountability is important, safety and civilian protection is paramount. Therefore, it is vital that information is recorded and preserved , creating a better environment for learning and ensuring that civilian casualties are more easily prevented in future operations. At the minimum, there should be a uniform list of required data that should be provided by units that are involved in possible civilian casualty incidents, including, amongst other things, the date and time of the incident, the units description of what happened, estimates of civilian harm, the weapons used in the strike or assault, whether there was enemy fire, and the steps taken after to manage the relationship with locals. This more uniform process would strengthen the ability of commanders to find out whether civilian harm incidents are a result of poor planning or execution by U.S. personnel or merely unavoidable accidents, which often occur in the fog of war. 

The RAND report then proceeds to a number of recommendations for how the DoD can better respond to alleged incidents of civilian harm. The first recommendation made is that the DoD avoid placing restrictive limits on who may receive condolence payments from the U.S. military, as the main goal of these payments is to maintain friendly relations with local populations, which, the authors note, is seen as vital by troops on the ground. Second, the authors argue that in DoD’s final ex gratia payments policy, it should include transparency around the total payment amount distributed. Such consistency is required to avoid the appearance of favoritism being shown towards one particular group that experiences civilian harm. Third, DoD should provide guidance and training to all commanders on the options that they have when responding to incidents of civilian harm, permitting commanders on the ground to decide the appropriate response, on a case-by-case basis.

Finally, the report closes with recommendations for how the Department of Defense can better resource and staff civilian harm reduction positions. They recommend creating permanent positions for the protection of civilians in each geographic combatant command, and across the Department, so that each command possess CIVCAS tracking cells and the resources to maintain them. However, they do note that it will be important to tailor each tracking cell to the individual requirements of the geographic combatant command, with INDOPACOM and EUCOM focusing on improving planning and collaboration with allies on civilian protection to mitigate civilian harm in possible near-peer conflict in those regions. Furthermore, combatant commands like CENTCOM could better leverage their personnel to incorporate PoC into their advise/assist/accompany missions with partner military forces. To ensure that these cells are able to more easily work with the GCCs, the authors recommend that each cell be led by a civilian, though possibly a retired military officer with relevant operational experience who can oversee a team that works at the intersection of the military, intelligence, and civil-society communities. 

A second recommendation to assist the Department in promoting civilian protection is the creation of a Center of Excellence for Civilian Protection, which can oversee the development of a strong civil-military relationship, which can act as a catalyst, helping the protection of civilians to be better integrated into the DoD’s overall efforts. Not only would staff at the Center support the protection of civilians through cutting edge research, they would be better positioned to liaise with the NGO and international community, bringing back their concerns and incorporating them into the protection of civilians in U.S. military operations. 

The authors also recommend that DoD maintain its ability to conduct periodic reviews to monitor the trends occurring in civilian harm over the course of an operation. For instance, such reviews would give the military an opportunity to determine the causes of discrepancies between their own reports of civilian casualty incidents and those done by civil-society observers. 

Final Thoughts

Overall, the Stimson, CSIS, and RAND reports offer an interesting look at the state of civilian harm prevention and the protection of civilians in U.S. and NATO operations. What is abundantly clear is that while there have been some strides made since the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, there is much more that still needs to be done in order to prevent civilians from becoming victims in U.S., NATO, and partnered operations. As has been noted, in 2016, NATO began the process of adopting a protection of civilians policy, capturing lessons learned from operations dating back to the Balkans in the 1990s. Furthermore, the U.S. has gone on to create civilian casualty tracking cells in Afghanistan, improving its ability to track and respond to such incidents. However, still more needs to be done. 

What will be especially important, going forward, is the ability of NATO and the U.S. Department of Defense, to inculcate soldiers, from the outset of their military training, with the idea that the protection of civilians is an essential part of the military’s overall mission. Whether it is inserting a strong section on civilian harm reduction into the 2022 NATO Strategic Concept, or providing greater levels of staffing and resources to tracking incidents of civilian harm at the U.S.’ individual combatant commands, what will be of vital importance is making PoC an essential element of any military officer’s career. 

For instance, going beyond the RAND authors’ suggestions of creating CIVCAS tracking cells at all of the combatant commands, the U.S. needs to ensure that protection of civilians and civilian harm reduction will be a key element in deciding future promotions. Commanders that exemplify a commitment to preventing civilian harm, whether through robust planning and reporting requirements for their troops, or through the creation of rigorous after-action review processes, should see their path to advancement smoothed, while those that do not exhibit such tendencies should find their paths to higher rank blocked. 

Furthermore, while the RAND authors correctly advocate for a civilian to lead civilian harm tracking cells, in order to better preserve institutional knowledge as well as work at the intersection of the military, intelligence, and non-governmental organization communities, their suggestion that this individual be a retired military officer is, while well-intentioned, counterproductive to the goals of transparency. As has been documented in the past, the U.S. military has historically had difficulty when policing its own questionable actions. In fact, just last month, the New York Times published an article showing how, in 2017, a special operations force team disregarded a no-strike list on a dam whose destruction could have caused thousands of civilian deaths. Despite the dam being off-limits and struck anyway, then Lt. Gen. Stephen J. Townsend called allegations of U.S. involvement “crazy reporting” and denied that the dam was even a target. Furthermore, even though the dam had to be quickly repaired with assistance from the Islamic State, the Assad regime, and some U.S. allies, no disciplinary action was taken against the special operations task force who called in the strike. 

As has been noted by CSIS’ Risa Brooks, “research has found a distinct effect of military experience on attitudes toward the use of force and on the role of congressional oversight. Doctoral research on the origins of civilian defense policy preferences found that retired officers often continued to advocate for service and other military institutional preferences in policy and budgeting processes…With a common language and history, retired military officers might unintentionally marginalize civilian outsiders.” Furthermore, as Christopher Gelp and Peter D. Feaver wrote in a 2002 article for the American Political Science Review, elite military experience has an impact on the use of force, as, “results indicate that higher percentages of veterans in the political elite were associated with greater levels of force by the United States—if the United States did initiate the use of force.” Therefore, leaving civilian harm tracking in the hands of a retired service member would be inherently risky, as that individual is likely to retain too much of their training and experience to serve as effective oversight of units designed to look into possible harm caused to civilians by U.S. military personnel. 

Furthermore, the behavior of some commanders on the ground leaves much to be desired when it comes to potential civilian casualty incidents. As noted by Just Security’s Luke Hartig in a February 8, 2022 piece, there is more that needs to be done to address the military’s culture of impunity when it comes to incidents of civilian harm.  Relatedly, there needs to be more guidance given to Pentagon staff about when and where to speak about alleged incidents of civilian casualties. As Hartig notes, the DoD, “initially failed to report and may have even attempted to cover up a March 2019 strike in Baghuz, Syria that may have killed more than 60 civilians.  Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told a reporter that he was “not going to relitigate” that strike, even though it had never been properly reviewed in the first place.” While it is understandable that the DoD has an immediate reflex to defend its troops’ actions, such incidents, where the U.S. speaks before it knows all of the facts, damages American credibility permanently in the eyes of those locals with relatives or loved ones killed or injured. Such damage to U.S. credibility can have knock-on effects, hurting cooperation and trust with local populations. As such, the protection of civilians needs to be seen just as tactically important as destroying an enemy weapons cache. Just as the cache can later come back to haunt U.S. troops, with the weapons used in attacks against them, damage done to civilians by the U.S., especially if left unaddressed, is a ticking time bomb, with the potential to seed the future battlespace with combatants who were affected by an initial U.S. strike. 

As the Director of the Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence at the Center for Naval Analyses, Larry Lewis, has stated in a November post over at the national security law and policy blog Just Security, “The United States government, and DOD in particular, has been nothing short of negligent regarding the issue of civilian harm,” and that, “on average at least one incident of civilian harm has happened every week since 9/11…The negligence must be stopped: by pursuing feasible solutions, identifying and implementing lessons, exercising strong leadership, and assigning resources to address the problem of civilian harm.” 

Lewis is indeed correct. The U.S. and NATO partners need to do a lot more, starting with implementing the changes listed above, which will help Western militaries better incorporate the protection of civilians into future military operations. Such a change will not only save lives, but will pay dividends for U.S. and Allied troops on the ground as they are better able to retain positive relationships with the local populations. Civilian casualties, especially when not responded to with some acknowledgement or condolence by the U.S, risk simply creating future enemies in countries that the U.S. is ostensibly there to protect. Without implementing these changes to DoD and NATO policy, the U.S. will continue to make avoidable mistakes, which can carry reprehensible moral and practical costs.

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A Militarized Mess in Myanmar: Examining the Myanmar Study Group’s Analysis and Recommendations

February 4, 2022

On Tuesday, Myanmar observed a rather ignominious milestone, as the country marked its first full year once again under military rule with an explosive blast in the eastern border town of Tachileik that killed two people and wounded another thirty. Such violence has simply become a part of the country’s new status quo, as the ousted civilian government, ethnic armed organizations, the military junta, and international organized crime elements all battle for control, territory, and profit. As the National War College’s Zachary Abuza noted in a November piece for War on the Rocks, while the Biden administration was quick to sanction Myanmar’s junta and its leaders early last year, these actions have not been enough to either dislodge the junta or prevent the economic and governance collapse that is currently taking place in the country, as it verges on becoming a failed state

Therefore, it was heartening to see that the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) had recently released the final report of its Myanmar Study Group, which outlined the particularly challenging elements of the coup, along with some potential recommendations for U.S. policymakers to pursue if the U.S. wants to prevent the chaos in Myanmar from spreading to the region. The report offered a number of timely suggestions that the U.S. and its allies can pursue when trying to not only improve situation for civilians on the ground, but to enable better cooperation and coherence among the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), the interim elected legislature (the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw – CPRH), and the National Unity Government (NUG), which acts as the disposed civilian governments executive branch. These groups, along with their negotiation platform, the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) are the key bodies through which the U.S. will have to act if it wants to reverse the damage that has been done to both the country’s economy and its democratic future by the military junta. 

While the armed ethnic organizations, elements of the deposed civilian government, and civil society groups all form a part of the country’s Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), the groups contain a diverse range of individuals, with strongly differing ideas about the future of Myanmar once the military junta is put down. While the groups have achieved a certain degree of unity in their fight against Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw), there is a level of distrust between the groups, stemming from inter-ethnic discrimination of minorities by the Bamar majority prior to the coup, that, along with competing visions of what a future, federal democratic Myanmar would look like—all of which makes collaboration and cohesion difficult to achieve. 

Therefore, amidst all of these challenges, it is important to take a look at the findings of the USIP’s Myanmar Study Group, along with the authors’ recommendations, to see if there are better avenues that the U.S. should be pursuing in its attempts to reverse the damage that is being done to the country, and its people, during this time of inter-communal strife.

A History of Dictatorship

The Study Group’s report begins with a look back at the history of Myanmar, since its independence in 1948. The authors specifically point out that the country had essentially lived under a dictatorship in the period between 1962-2011, with a period of one-party, military-dominated rule occurring from 1974-1988. During this period, the military used extreme measures to exert control over the population, walling the country off from the rest of the world. However, things began to shift in the late 1980s, as an August 8, 1988 uprising led to a period of democratization, as the military proceeded to allow elections in 1990. Indeed, as a 2002 Committee to Protect Journalists report noted, the country was, “in transition from being…one of the most closed societies in the world.” 

As part of that period of democratization, the National League for Democracy (NLD) was formed, under Aung San Suu Kyi, whose assassinated father founded the Burmese Army and is considered the Father of modern Myanmar. While the NLD won a resounding victory in the subsequent 1990 general elections, the strength of the party’s victory unnerved the military, which then proceeded to argue that a new constitution was required before a new parliament could be sat, leading to a nearly twenty-year long National Convention, which merely acted as an excuse by the military to delay democracy’s progress. While a new constitution was eventually agreed to in 2008, it granted the military a virtual veto over legislation, with a guaranteed 25% of seats in Parliament reserved for serving military officers, to go along with the ability to set its own budget.

Meanwhile, in the interim, the military’s leadership opened the door for free enterprise in the economy, albeit primarily for senior military officers. This loosening of the strict economic rules the regime imposed in the late 1980s led to an influx of international money, which looked to exploit the rich natural resources present in Myanmar. These trends combined to allow senior military officers to line their own pockets with foreign dollars, while the country’s resources were shipped overseas, and the civilian population saw little, if any benefit. A 2017 report from the United Nations University Centre for Policy Research noted that since the 1990s, “illegal and unregulated resources economies, including the drug trade, logging, mining, and wildlife trafficking, have thrived and devastated Burma’s ecosystems, even as the plunder-underpinned peace has slid into war again.” Furthermore, that same report pointed out that, “an early 1990s laissez-faire policy of allowing the insurgencies in designated semi-autonomous regions to trade any products – including drugs, timber, jade, and wildlife — enabled conflict to subside,” and that, “the Burmese junta negotiated ceasefires with the insurgencies, and underpinned the agreements by giving the insurgent groups economic stakes in resource exploitation and illegal economies.” The intent of the government when negotiating such agreements was to redirect those EAOs away from continuing battles with the military and more in the pursuit of their own economic interests. 

As the Study Group’s authors note, however, the military regime did eventually come under Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Chinese pressure to make actual progress on a transition to real civilian government. By 2007, Myanmar’s National Convention to write a new constitution was concluded, though the country was in the midst of the Saffron Revolution, led by Buddhist monks who were protesting the deteriorating economic conditions in the country. While the Tatmadaw did permit elections to eventually be held in 2010, they were largely seen as illegitimate, as the new constitution barred Aung San Suu Kyi from standing, causing her NLD party to boycott. The resultant boycott from the NLD led to the military’s Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) winning a putative landslide victory, garnering as many as 80% of available parliamentary seats. However, the results of the vote were disputed, and there were widespread reports of voter intimidation and violence being perpetrated by the military. 

Therefore, the authors note, despite this foul play from the military during the election, it was a massive shock when newly sworn in President Thein Sein, a retired general, set about implementing both political and economic reforms. These reforms included a willingness to discuss changes to the election rules that would ultimately pave the way for the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi to join the parliament by way of the 2012 by-elections. In addition to ushering in these changes, Thein Sein released political prisoners, permitted a more free press, and allowed for the entry into the country of affordable cell phones, which transformed civil society. 

However, these reforms were not looked on with approval by all members of the military establishment. Even as the 2015 elections were hailed as being the most free and fair in the nation’s history, and Aung San Suu Kyi assumed a powerful state counselor role, relations between the civilian government and the military—particularly the Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, who had been appointed at the outset of the Thein Sein administration—chafed at what they saw as an unconstitutional power grab by Aung San Suu Kyi, who they felt should still remain barred from running for office due to her having foreign-born children. As the 2020 elections approached, relations between Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing deteriorated, as charges of election fraud began to emerge from the military’s camp. All of these events ultimately led to the February 2021 coup—which saw Aung Sang Suu Kyi arrested and the military return to power for the first time in a decade—as Min Aung Hlaing formed the State Administrative Council (SAC) as a caretaker government, appointing himself as Prime Minister. 

Coup Repercussions

The Study Group’s authors then proceed to examine how the coup has impacted a number of areas in Myanmar, including important indicators of government viability, such as: governance and political tension, military-civilian conflict, economic, health, education, and social services performance, and the states of civil society and freedom of information.

In terms of governance issues, in February of 2021, when the military junta immediately began to roll back reforms initiated under the NLD or Thein Sein administrations—including the repeal of laws streamlining regulations, which allowed Tatmadaw officials to skim from local industries—the Myanmar civil service responded with strikes that crippled the junta’s ability to deliver services such as health care, rail transport, and education. In parallel to these national strikes protesting the government’s return to the “bad old days”, a group of NLD parliamentarians formed the National Unity Government (NUG), which, together with the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CPRH), acting as the opposition’s legislature, revoked the disastrous 2008 constitution and issued a new, interim constitution to guide the exiled civilian government. At the same time, however, the junta’s opposition found it difficult to comes together—despite having worked together to form the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC)—as the country’s ethnic minorities found it difficult to achieve progress on a unified conception of a future federal structure for Myanmar, a vital issue to resolve in order to ensure non-Bamar buy-in of a future, democratic, Myanmar. While the authors note that the NUCC has made progress in becoming more representative, the body still lacks participation of some major EAOs and political parties—such as the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), which had won the third-largest number of seats in the November 2020 elections—making them a vital partner for any future, federal, Myanmar government. 

In addition, over the past year, the NUG established its own defense ministry and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) under its control, to go along with scores of self-created PDFs, which are intended to be a precursor to a Federal Union Army. These PDFs, which now number around 150, are a part of an overall military-civilian conflict that has seen urban protests—that took place shortly after the coup—explode into an all out civil war. In response to this more organized resistance, the USDP began forming Pyu Saw Hti militias, composed of, according to some reports, “retired military personnel, civil servants, members of the military proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party, ultranationalists and people hired for a wage of 5,000 kyats (about US$3) per day,” to fight the opposition. In addition to creating new militias, the military had already allowed certain existing ethnic militias to be designated as Border Guard Forces (BGFs), which operated under the command of and receive funds from the Tatmadaw, allowing these groups to enjoy the benefits of illicit economy activity in their area, in exchange for giving up their autonomous nature. As noted in a July 2020 special report by the United States Institute of Peace’s Jason Tower and Priscilla Clapp, “the relationship offers an ideal space to conduct illicit activities, including in the more than $25 billion-a-year online gaming industry, which Chinese law enforcement has cracked down on intensely in recent years.” This kind of major financial incentive provides these BGFs with ample reason to continue supporting the junta. 

However, despite the creation of these border guard and militia units by the junta in Naypyitaw, the opposition EAOs and PDFs in the country’s periphery have only gained in strength and ability, embroiling all fourteen states and regions in the country in the fighting. Furthermore, the increase in fighting, and the resultant deterioration in governance, has allowed ethnic armed organizations to increase their independence from the government and their authority over the parts of the country that they control. In just one of many examples provided by the report’s authors, they look at the actions of two of the most powerful organizations in the country: the Arakan Army and the United Wa State Army. In Rakhine State, the Arakan Army has consolidated its battlefield gains and expanded control over local health authorities, courts, and police stations, giving it control in more than 2⁄3 of the state’s townships and cities, including the strategic port of Kyaukphyu. In the Wa Special Administrative Division, the United Wa State Army has largely refrained from interacting with the NUG, choosing instead to continue its conflict against nemesis Shan State Army – South, driving them out of key territories in Shan State close to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. As these ethnic armed groups gain in power and ability, it will make it more likely that they will either require a stronger voice in the country’s future governance, or they may even contemplate secession after having enjoyed this continued period of self-determination. 

Source: https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2022-01/myanmar-study-group-final-report.pdf

In terms of economic repercussions of the coup, the country has seen almost all of the reforms undertaken by Thein Sein and the NLD reversed and crippling strikes by the CDM, which has had a catastrophic effect on the country’s economy, with major contractions in GDP growth and firms facing major cash flow shortages. In fact, as the authors note, another major reason underlying the coup was a fear from senior Tatmadaw officers that the NLD’s economic reforms would push them out of lucrative economic activity and rent-seeking, which were a main source of income. 

In addition, health and social services have been disrupted, with citizens refusing to pay their electrical bills, depriving the government of $57.2 million per month and leading to frequent blackouts which disrupt communications. Furthermore, health care workers have gone on strike, crippling state-run hospitals and causing the country to see one of the most severe COVID outbreaks in Southeast Asia in late summer/fall 2020. 

On top of all of these disruptions, educational services have been thrown into disarray, with as many as 125,000 teachers joining the civil disobedience movement, prompting the junta to terminate or suspend more than 125,000 teachers. Coupled with the COVID pandemic, Myanmar has seen fewer than 10% of its students return to classes after pandemic-related closures in the summer of 2021, forcing parents to either use underground or online platforms; enroll their children in ethnic armed organization-run schools; or to send their children to low-cost private classes hosted in the homes of teachers out on strike. Furthermore, non-governmental organizations have been impacted by the coup, forced to either move offshore or terminate operations. Finally, the authors note that the military has cracked down on the press, detaining over one hundred journalists in the period between February 1, 2021 and January 2022. 

The International Response

While the international community did respond with some sanctions, particularly from the U.S., UK, Canada, and the EU, the overall international response was lacking, primarily due to China and Russia running interference for the junta at the UN Security Council, which prevented the body from issuing a strong condemnation of the military takeover. Furthermore, though the leaders of nine ASEAN countries—including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore—did at least make a call in April of 2021 for the junta to relinquish power back into the hands of the duly elected civilian government, the body dawdled in picking a special envoy. In addition, when Cambodian President Hun Sen visited Myanmar in January of 2022, the country’s Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn was forced to defend the trip as not providing the junta with legitimacy, stating that the two sides merely conducted a “frank and candid” exchange. 

As mentioned above, China, along with Russia, prevented a UN Security Council resolution condemning the military’s 2021 putsch, as China tries to maintain a delicate balance in Myanmar: looking to secure its interests in the country’s rich natural resources as well as to exploit the country’s unique location, which would offer China greater access to the Indian Ocean. Therefore, instead of taking a more hard-line on Myanmar’s military takeover, China’s position towards the junta has, if anything, softened since the early days of the coup. 

As China discovered when it was forced to erect electrified fencing on the border with Myanmar—covering nearly ⅓ of the shared frontier—the pandemic does not respect national boundaries, and China has had to declare Kachin State and Shan States in Myanmar “COVID buffer zones”, dispatching aid teams to distribute testing supplies, oxygen, and vaccine to the junta and rebels alike, in an attempt to keep the virus from running rampant on their border. With those protections in place, China was then able to pivot to its primary concerns in Myanmar: protecting its investments. As part of the two countries’ continued economic cooperation, the Study Group’s report notes, more than 200 Chinese companies participated in the China-Myanmar Border Trade Expo in August of 2021, and new trade routes between Myanmar and China were established. 

That said, while there has been some progress on economic cooperation between Naypyitaw and Beijing, a major negative effect of the military’s takeover has been that Myanmar’s military has been unable to continue the crackdowns on organized crime by Chinese transnational crime groups, which had been initiated under the civilian NLD government. These crackdowns on Myanmar’s casino cities had begun after casinos began to flood northern Myanmar after many had been pushed out of neighboring Cambodia. With the emergence of EAOs and the government’s inability to retain control over territory in Kachin and Shan states, it was a windfall for transnational criminal enterprise in those areas, as their illicit casinos scaled-up to meet increasing gambler, investor, and transnational criminal demand from China—which had already begun its own crackdown on “cross-border gambling and telecommunication network fraud”. While China has instituted some measures—such as forcing thousands of Chinese nationals working in the northern parts of Myanmar to return home or have their families face penalties—the USIP authors argue that Beijing appears to believe that if they can bring crime and the pandemic under control in these areas, that dependence would force the junta to allow China to cement its influence in the area.

As for Western governments and their allies, while they have so far refused to provide formal recognition of the military’s regime, allies such as Japan and South Korea have decided to maintain their investments in the country, weakening the overall response. Furthermore, the USIP authors point out that collective international action seems unlikely, given the stalemate at the UN Security Council, though there remains a need for the appointment of a well-credentialed special envoy, who has the backing of member states, in order to get past the deep levels of distrust that already exist between the UN and the junta. 

Medium-, and Long-term Prospects

The report then shifts to a discussion of not only the looming health crisis caused by the pandemic, but what the current state of affairs augurs for Myanmar’s longer-term future. The authors note that the omicron variant, coupled with food shortages, and an increase in poverty paint a dire picture for Myanmar. The authors further note that as the junta loses its ability to control administrative functions in areas controlled by ethnic armed organizations, and the National Unity government is torn between the Bamar-majority NLD and ethnic minority demands for a federal structure, the country risks a civil war that has little end in sight. In the short-term, the authors have little hope that the confidence-building measures necessary to achieve a peace breakthrough will be practicable. 

In the medium- to long-term, the authors note that if trends continue, most of the country will fall under the control of People’s Defense Forces, ethnic armed organizations, or a combination of the two, allowing for an explosion of crime and poverty due to inadequate administration. Long-term, the authors note that Myanmar possesses the world’s third largest reserves of rare earth minerals, making it a vital link in the valuable high-tech supply chains that are vital to the 21st century economy. Furthermore, as the report notes, not only is the region a major trading partner of the United States, which could jeopardize U.S. investments—which have totaled over $1.5 billion since just 2012—it allows transnational crime to run rampant. In illustration of that fact, the UN’s Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) stated on February 1, 2022 that, “Meth production has increased last year from already extreme levels in northern Myanmar and there is no sign it will slow down,” and that, “Drugs and conflict remain inseparable in Myanmar, one feeding the other…Chaos and instability work for traffickers.” As instability reigns, it could make the country an even greater draw for such crime syndicates, with catastrophic effect for both the region and the world. 

Therefore, no matter what happens, there will be interest in the fate of the country after the violence ends. However, whatever form a post-coup government takes—if it is able to defeat the Tatmadaw at all—will likely look radically different from the government that the NLD was hoping to institute when it won a landslide in November of 2020. 

Recommendations for U.S. Policy Makers

The report closes with a series of recommendations for U.S. decision makers that will not only improve the humanitarian situation while the fight against the junta continues on, but create the conditions for a more stable Myanmar in the future. These recommendations include the provision of humanitarian assistance, including pandemic-related supplies and vaccines, as the UN and the GAVI Alliance attempt to increase vaccine delivery and administration in the country. Furthermore, the authors recommend that the U.S. help facilitate food deliveries to help the over thirteen million in Myanmar who are food insecure. In addition, they argue that there needs to be more work done to create safe zones for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and to increase access to communications for IDPs living in areas where internet is either unaffordable or simply unavailable. 

However, work needs to be done outside of large multilateral organizations, as well. The authors note that the U.S. needs to work more with bilateral partners—especially those in the region such as Bangladesh, India, and Thailand—encouraging them to further isolate the military junta in Myanmar. They argue that the Quad and AUKUS formats offer alternative ways to bring pressure on the junta to return to democratic governance. Finally, with regard to India, the authors argue the U.S. should appeal to India’s vital interests in Myanmar to try and get New Delhi to use its influence with the junta to mediate a return to civilian rule. 

Moreover, the authors argue that the U.S. needs to strengthen its direct support to the National Unity Government and its resistance counterparts, including more local opposition groups. While they are not arguing for any kind of lethal assistance, they do suggest that the U.S. might attempt to facilitate direct engagement between differing opposition groups, and assist them in establishing safe havens for those threatened with retaliation or detention from the junta for assisting the civil disobedience movement. The USIP authors also state that it is important for the U.S. to deepen its support for the NLD and other pro-democracy parties such as the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, which are both registered, and active, political parties. They further suggest that U.S. organizations like the National Democratic Institution and International Republican Institute may wish to consider expanding dialogues with the NLD and SNLD to assist them in meeting both their material and technical needs as they attempt to rally the country’s democratic opposition. In addition, the authors contend that USAID should coordinate with its partners in Myanmar to ensure that its programs are not duplicative, and are flexible enough to work through the parahita religious charities and unregistered organizations that are key players in the ongoing conflict. 

The USIP authors then proceed to argue that the U.S. needs to expand its relationships with political representatives that are linked to the individual ethnic groups in Myanmar. They argue that such an expanded communication channel, in conjunction with an overall increase in American aid, would bolster the U.S.’ ability to promote a future federal model for Myanmar that is truly democratic and inclusive, as it would give the U.S. a relationship with groups other than Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD. Such outreach should prioritize the groups that have already shown a commitment to democracy in areas that they control, though it should be careful to try and encourage rising actors, such as the United League of Arakan, to collaborate with the anti-coup movement, in order to get all sides pulling in the same direction. 

The report closes with a number of recommendations that aim to increase the pressure on the junta and prepare for the future rebuilding of democratic Myanmar. These suggestions range from the U.S. Department of Justice and U.S. Department of the Treasury conducting moves to block the proceeds from extractive industries held in dollar accounts from flowing to the junta, to encouraging Myanmar’s neighbors to impose no-fly zones to keep civilians safe from junta air strikes. Other recommendations include sanctions on companies involved in cross-border criminal activities as well as new sanctions on companies that initiate new business with the junta. In terms of preparing for a better future for Myanmar, the authors argue that the U.S. should work with civil society to try to lay the groundwork for an accountable military in Myanmar; and work with the opposition to design a federal army and police structure that will ensure that the country’s ethnic minorities are fully represented. Other ways to prepare the country for its future include: asylum and refugee programs to protect intellectual talent in Myanmar and collective evidence of the junta’s rights abuses in order to ensure future transitional or restorative justice and accountability. 

Closing Thoughts – More to Do

The report from the United States Institute of Peace offered a detailed and, at times, disheartening picture of the situation on the ground in Myanmar. However, while the military is still far from defeated, and prospects for an end to the conflict appear dim, the NUG, NUCC, and various EAOs have made a great deal of progress. As asserted recently by Thitinan Pongsudhirak, who directs the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, “The battlefield balance in this makeshift guerrilla-style warfare is shifting as time wears on,” and that the military’s forces are, “overstretched and outmanned by anti-military regime fighters.” In addition, U.S. State Department Counselor Derek Chollet, at a forum on Myanmar this week, said that, “I think there’s no question the Tatmadaw is under pressure,” and that, “I think things have not gone as well as perhaps they thought they would have a year ago. I think the fight is much harder. The resilience of Burmese society is much stronger.” 

That said, the coup and resultant crises affecting the political and economic situations in Myanmar have tested the most important regional multilateral bodies, ASEAN and the United Nations, and found both of them wanting—with ASEAN looking feckless, and the UN Security Council revealed to be as sclerotic as ever. If the Western world wishes to see a more rapid resolution to the situation in Myanmar, its leaders will need to lean more heavily on these bodies to use their good offices to isolate and push the junta towards a dialogue with the ousted civilian government. 

Closing Thoughts – Federalism in Myanmar

As noted in a January 2022 report from the International Crisis Group, the coup ended a decade of peace talks over a settlement between the majority-Burman state and the country’s ethnic armed organizations, blurring the line between existing EAOs and new militia groups that sprung up to oppose the junta. While both the junta and the CPRH and National Unity Government have tried to win the various EAOs to their side, the majority of those groups have attempted to remain neutral, committing to neither side, and hoping to profit off of both. 

Furthermore, the Crisis Group authors note that the country’s democratic future will depend, to some extent, on the ability of the NUG to rally the whole country to its cause. However, there are problems when trying to come together with the EAOs, which can likely be traced back to a lack of trust between these ethnic groups and the NLD government. These trust issues date back to what the armed groups feel was the civilian government’s inability to make good on the promises of a federal system when a civilian government took over for the military in the 1990s. 

Ultimately, while the Study Group’s authors are absolutely correct that the U.S., and its Western partners and allies, should be doing more to aid the deposed civilian government in Myanmar as they resist the junta’s attacks, no amount of foreign assistance will make a difference if the junta’s opposition are not able to come together and agree on the outlines of what a future, federal Myanmar might look like. Indeed, one of the most important recommendations made by the Study Group’s authors is that the U.S. needs to step up its engagement with both the EAOs and the NUCC/CPRH in order to encourage the two sides to agree to a new system in Myanmar that provides non-Bamar citizens the same rights and responsibilities that the ethnic majority possess. 

However, while a truly federal system was not what was adopted when the country returned to civilian rule in 2010, the country does have some experience with such a diffusion of power from the capital. As noted in a report published by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a future federal system in Myanmar, “will certainly include asymmetric territorial arrangements, and thus see territorial arrangements in Myanmar returning to the ‘mandala system’ that characterized the precolonial period.” That pre-colonial period’s mandala was essentially a way of ensuring the loyalty of subordinates at the far edges of the kingdom, and a modern version would consist of a central circle in Naypyitaw, with a larger circle around it comprised of the ethnic-majority regions in Yangon and Mandalay, and finally a third circle, which would include the areas currently controlled by EAOs. 

As further elucidated in another ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute report, while the 2008 Constitution—which was repudiated by the CPRH/NUCC last year—recognized the de facto  existence of EAO-controlled territories, it did not address the fluid and overlapping nature of control that the EAOs and the government have in areas that they both provide services in. Under a new, more federal, system, there would exist a new kind of “asymmetrical federalism” wherein each ethnic group was able to govern itself in the areas of life which matter to it the most, while the central government retained jurisdiction over the areas where unity is a required and all groups already have agreement. As remarked by the ISEAS’ Mael Raynaud, “while the design and adoption of a federal system may be a long-term undertaking, the fact that Myanmar should adopt such a system has now been accepted in principle by all significant constituencies in the country’s body politic.”

If Myanmar not only wants to find a path out of its current conflict, but create a future system that is equitable to all of Myanmar’s citizens, the U.S. will need to do more than it has so far. It is time that the Biden administration and Congress revisit its Myanmar policy to develop a strategy that not only further isolates the military, but helps organize the resistance into a more cohesive whole. As neither the State Administrative Council nor the opposition NUG/NUCC/CPRH have the neutrality or capability to deliver aid in a truly impartial manner, it should be conducted through NGOs as much as possible in order to ensure that assistance is not unduly diverted. Part of such efforts may include pushing partners, such as Thailand, to do more to aid refugees and prevent them from being returned to areas that are experiencing military action. Finally, the U.S. should increase its ties with Myanmar’s civil disobedience movement, broaden sanctions on the military junta, and appoint a special representative or envoy for Myanmar policy, to coordinate these efforts and ensure progress while the administration focuses on other priorities. 
A future Myanmar that shares power with its oft-oppressed ethnic minorities would not only be more stable and prosperous, providing economic benefits to the entirety of Southeast Asia, but would hopefully avoid the recurrence of ethnically- and religiously-motivated crackdowns that saw the country’s Rohingya population suffer so terribly, beginning in 2017. While the current situation may appear bleak, especially for the country’s economy, the junta’s coup does at least offer Myanmar’s civilian government a chance to rectify some of the sins of its past. If it fails to do so, such continued internecine conflict will simply emerge further down the road. The United States should do everything in its power to prevent that from occurring.

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Improving U.S. Institutional Capacity Building in Africa

January 28, 2022

Earlier this month, the RAND Corporation released a report, “Competition and Governance in African Security Sectors: Integrating U.S. Strategic Objectives,” by Stephen Watts, Alexander Noyes, and Gabrielle Tarini, which examines the potential for improving U.S. security sector assistance (SSA) programs to its African partners—specifically in terms of improving U.S. institutional capacity building programs for partner security sectors. Institutional capacity building programs are those, “security cooperation activities that directly support U.S. ally and partner nation efforts to improve security sector governance and core management competencies necessary to effectively and responsibly achieve shared security objectives.” These programs, which are overseen by the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), can range from improving the human resources management of partner defense departments to assisting partner militaries in strategic planning. These capacity-building programs are essential, as U.S. train-advise-assist missions are frequently insufficient to ensure partners possess the broader competencies needed to successfully improve their security sectors, and too often result in abuse of civilians by partner military forces. 

The term “institutional capacity building” first appeared in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2017, where Title 10 (Chapter 16) § 333 B(4) notes that the Secretary of Defense shall, prior to the initiation of partner capacity building programs, begin “a program of institutional capacity building with appropriate institutions…The purpose of the program of institutional capacity building shall be to enhance the capacity of such foreign country to exercise responsible civilian control of the national security forces of such foreign country.” In essence, institutional capacity building is designed so that it protects against some of the potential downsides of supporting partner militaries in fragile states. 

As Watts, Noyes, and Tarini note in their report, well-executed institutional capacity building (ICB) is important, as not only does it give the U.S. a degree of leverage over its partners, it provides a good of high value to leaders in conflict-affected states; through its focus on higher-level pattern interaction, it gives U.S. ICB implementers better relationships with senior decision makers; and it helps partners create security institutions that are resilient to both internal stressors and external competition. However, at the same time, it is important that U.S. ICB programs avoid undermining overarching U.S. goals in the country and region, as ICB programs may require painful sacrifices—such as dismantling patronage networks or developing meritocratic recruitment and promotion methods—that cause partner governments to turn towards alternative security assistance providers, such as China and Russia. 

In order to avoid these pitfalls, the RAND authors argue, the U.S. needs to do a number of things to better situate ICB programs into overall American security sector assistance to partner nations. Their first suggestion is that the U.S. needs to formulate a common understanding of effective institutional capacity building across all U.S. agencies and departments in order to create a consensus on what ICB is and what it should be used for. The second is that the U.S. should create a board/council which can act as a clearinghouse for all ICB programs, integrating them into broader security sector assistance strategies. A third is that the U.S. creates ways to incentive partner commitment through programs similar to the Millennium Challenge Corporation. Fourth, that the U.S. needs to have a longer horizon in mind when conducting ICB and SSA, so that American interlocutors on the ground have a better understanding of the specific local dynamics involved. Finally, the authors argue that the U.S. needs to improve efforts at assessment, monitoring, and evaluation (AM&E) of institutional capacity building and security sector assistance programs in order to better understand the reasons why specific programs succeed or fail.

However, before looking at how the authors arrived at these suggestions, it is first important to examine why the authors chose to look at U.S. SSA in Africa. Further, it is important to see how a U.S. failure to properly design institutional capacity building programs in Africa leaves the door open for China to step in and increase its level of influence. 

While the U.S. is still the preferred development model for many African countries, China has steadily climbed the ranks, and in at least three countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Botswana), has overtaken the American model. Furthermore, China has become a major arms supplier for sub-Saharan African countries, with twenty-one sub-Saharan states receiving major arms from China between 2016-2020. In addition, China accounted for 20% of all arms imports into sub-Saharan Africa, compared to just 5.4% from the United States. Finally, the RAND authors note that China operates over thirty military academies which offer training to foreign military personnel, supporting annual training to approximately 2,000 African military officers across forty African countries. The damage that would be done to the United States influence in Africa, if its ICB and SSA programs were to fail, risks jeopardizing relationships with countries that are already being enticed by China, whether through soft-power military exchanges or infrastructure projects as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

Source: https://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ARB07EN-Assessing-Attitudes-of-the-Next-Generation-of-African-Security-Sector-Professionals.pdf

What is clear is that the U.S., over the last twenty years, has focused its security policy in Africa on using a “by, with, and through” approach that aimed to not only combat terrorism and violent extremist organizations (VEOs) in Africa, but to reduce regional instability, which can be an underlying cause of extremism in the first place. The idea underlying such a strategy is to empower allies to solve their own security issues—with American support—in the hope that increasing partner ownership of the problem will help create more accountable security structures in partner nations. The authors note that in recent years, between 13-25% of all U.S. institutional capacity building programs take place in the AFRICOM area of responsibility, focusing on strategic planning; human resources management; logistics; procurement and acquisitions; and the rule of law and human rights. 

Source: https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/US%20Counterterrorism%20Operations%202018-2020%2C%20Costs%20of%20War.pdf

Linking ICB and Influence

Watts, Noyes, and Tarini then proceed to examine the linkages between U.S. ICB programs and American influence in African countries. They note that the three primary routes for ICB to enhance U.S. influence are by providing a resource of value; by improving partner resilience; and by building relationships built on trust and shared values. In terms of providing partner countries with valuable resources, the authors note that the U.S. uses its capacity building and security sector assistance in order to provide something of value to partners in order to receive something in exchange—for example: basing rights. Though such a direct swap is a more extreme example of providing a resource in exchange for a consideration the U.S. desires, the report also argues that there is reason to believe that ICB programs increase long-term U.S. influence, yielding eventual dividends even when rewards are not seen immediately. For instance, the authors point to the U.S.’ position as number one in the African ranking of best development models, meaning that successful ICB programs—which support peace and justice in post-conflict states—can similarly position the U.S. as the partner of choice in those countries, as it will have delivered a valued commodity and established itself as the model to emulate in Africa.

When it comes to improving partner resilience the report states that, as a resilient security sector is one that prioritizes the interests of the populace over its own narrow interests, a U.S. strategy that promotes resilience in partner military establishments would yield partner militaries that better serve the interests of the populations that they are meant to protect. However, the authors are careful to note the risks involved with institutional capacity building programs, as such programs can run the risk of increasing the chances of a coup if military training is not coupled with effective civilian oversight. 

Finally, when it comes to relationship-building, the authors argue that while it is hard to determine the extent to which interactions between U.S. personnel and partner personnel help build relationships built on trust, studies have shown that countries with a high number of military officers educated by the United States typically possessed patterns of voting at the United Nations that were more closely aligned with U.S. policy than those without. However, the authors do note that while such relationships are a valuable starting off point, if the military does not already play a role in the country’s foreign policy decision making, then efforts to build such relationships may yield few gains to the overall U.S. competition in the region, as its military interlocutors will not be in a position to effect matters too greatly. 

The report then proceeds to examine U.S. institutional capacity building programs in Niger, Nigeria, Kenya, and South Sudan, examining how they succeeded or failed, and what impact it should have on the design and implementation of such programs in the future. 

Case Studies – ICB in Niger, Nigeria, Kenya, and South Sudan

Niger

Niger, which has been a participant in the U.S.’ interagency Security Governance Initiative since 2015, is one of the top regional recipients of U.S. counterterrorism training and equipment. In Niger, U.S. ICB teams work with the Nigerien Ministries of Defense and Interior on functions ranging from strategy to human resources management and budgets, having made particular progress on efforts to redesign force structure, capability-based scenario planning, and standing up inter-ministerial structures between the Ministries of Interior and Defense. 

However, the RAND report notes that such institution building would be more easily accomplished if: local coordinators were on hand to cultivate good working relationships and ensure momentum in between visits by U.S.-based team; that shared commitments are written down; that institutional-level efforts are fused with efforts at both the operational and tactical levels; and that the police and military units are both engaged by U.S. teams at the same time.

Local coordinators would help increase American influence, as they would have a better understanding of the problems and potential opportunities better than Washington-based analysts. Furthermore, codifying shared commitments would give the U.S. ICB team leverage to exert influence over partners when particular goals are not being met. Additionally, linking institutional-level efforts with those at the operational and tactical level is important, since, as the authors note, too little attention has been paid to capacity building at the higher level of defense establishments. This results in partner forces that are competent at the tactical level, but incompetently led at the strategic level, leading to inefficiency, waste, and poor leadership that only exacerbates any underlying instability. As current USAID administrator, then-U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power said in a 2014 speech at the United Nations Security Council, “Too often, approaches to SSR are limited to base training or the building up of individual security units and fail to create security institutions that can effectively manage national forces and be responsive to the complex needs of societies…” 

Finally, the authors argue that engaging national police forces simultaneously with the military is vital, as African nations, “commonly enable defense and security forces to share missions and operate together…often out of the necessity of scarce resources,” but that, “it also reflects the nature of the threats in play—transnational nonstate actors as opposed to the traditional threat posed by neighboring militaries.” Therefore, by engaging both the military and the police simultaneously, the U.S. ICB teams are better able to support both in their more natural roles, allowing each to focus on their particular competencies, preventing duplication of effort.  

Overall, while U.S. institutional capacity building programs have done little to influence the U.S. China rivalry in any meaningful way in the region, interview evidence reviewed by the authors does suggest that these programs have contributed to the U.S. remaining the preferred security provider in the region. Further, they point to a survey of 742 African security sector professionals from the region which found that 27% of respondents preferred the U.S. as training partner, 21% prefer the African Union, 15% prefer the UN, and 9% choosing the EU, with China not even registering. Ultimately, while there is evidence that foreign security sector assistance has not made Nigeriens that much safer, the authors argue that American experience in Niger demonstrates the importance of maintaining successful partnerships with regional countries. 

Nigeria

The report then proceeds to an analysis of U.S. institutional capacity building efforts in Nigeria, which has seen much more limited progress than in Niger. While it has received a good deal of U.S. support, the country is still beset by security problems, with Boko Haram and ISWAP operating in the northeast part of the country, conducting attacks on both civilian and military targets. U.S. security sector cooperation with Nigeria, covers the $7.1 million in International Military Education and Training (IMET) funding from 2016-2020 along with $1.1 million as part of the African Military Education Program benefitting Nigerian military schools. In addition, the country has also received $1.3 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) to support maritime security, military professionalization, and counterterrorism (CT). Further, as part of the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), Nigeria has received $9.3 million worth of training, equipment, and advisory support for CT efforts. Finally, the country has $590 million in government-to-government sales under the Foreign Military Sales system, including up to 12 A-29 Super Tucano turboprop light attack aircraft worth $497 million for countering illicit trafficking in Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea. 

However, despite this level of assistance, the report’s authors note that evidence suggests that Nigeria views American ICB programs as intrusive, creating risks for espionage, but also limiting opportunities for graft and corruption. The RAND authors also do not find that the security relationship has made much progress on inculcating American values, with the Nigerian military having been credibly accused of committing war crimes only about eighteen months ago. While concerns about such behavior had forced the Obama administration to cancel the delivery of American-made helicopters in 2014 and then freeze delivery of the A-29s in early 2017, the Trump administration made the decision to go ahead with the sale, with the fighters being inducted into the Nigerian Air Force in August of 2021. 

In sum, the authors feel that gains from U.S. ICB assistance to Nigeria is limited across the resources, relationships, and resilience pathways. While these limited gains have not affected the U.S.-China competition—as China’s interest in Nigeria appears to be predominantly economic in nature—the RAND authors argue that it is still unavoidable that, despite best intentions, the U.S. has made extremely little impact in transforming the defense institutions in Nigeria.

Kenya

As a major contributor to the African Union’s Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), Kenya is a vital U.S. partner in the fight against al-Shabaab. Furthermore, the country has a long history of close relations with the U.S. and its military is one of the most capable in Africa, having received over $560 million in security assistance in 2020 alone. With that assistance, the RAND report notes, the Kenyan security sector has made progress, making strides in enterprise resource planning, inventory management, and logistics management. 

However, the report notes that, as with other American ICB programs, the U.S. faces a problem with follow-through from partners when American staff are not in the country. That said, the report does note that the relationship between U.S. officials and Kenyans is one of mutual respect and shared interest, which should help differentiate the relationship from the one with China, which, despite recent entreaties from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, has had some difficulties

Overall, the report’s authors argue that despite some mixed results, U.S. ICB initiatives have contributed to some gains in the bilateral relationship, though frequently, these gains are due to direct U.S. financial and equipment support to partner militaries. 

South Sudan

If Niger, Nigeria, and Kenya demonstrated the U.S.’ ability to achieve at least a measure of success through its ICB programs, South Sudan is the chief counter-example. The country, which has been wracked by violence and conflict since a civil war broke out in 2013, has received enormous amounts of U.S. security sector assistance, despite human rights abuses such as the Sudan People’s Liberation Army’s (SPLAs) use of child soldiers. The RAND report argues that the U.S.’ ICB programs in South Sudan were widely considered failures, as there was a persistent lack of buy-in from the South Sudanese military, demonstrated by a lack of resources invested in force sustainment; in a lack of coherence within the budget and immature public financial management; and entrenched antagonism to civilian control of the military. 

Watts, Noyes, and Tarini argue that the U.S.’  failure in South Sudan was because its strategy was built on a poor foundation of only working with the SPLA, rather than creating an enabling political environment. Interviews conducted by the authors found that because members of the military were loyal to individual leaders rather than the state as w whole, U.S. assistance exacerbated the fragmentation between the military and the civilian leadership, massively hindering the implementation of reforms.  

Overall, the authors argue that not only did U.S. ICB programs fail to improve the resiliency of the SPLA, American badgering of its South Sudanese counterparts about its human rights abuses created opportunities for China to expand its influence there. Therefore, U.S. efforts in South Sudan were largely a failure as they failed to provide South Sudan with a resource that they valued highly; failed to improve the SPLA’s resilience; and there appeared to be few shared values on which to build a meaningful relationship. All of which limited the ability of the U.S. to increase its influence with the government of South Sudan.

RAND Conclusions and Recommendations

The RAND report then closes with a synthesis of the authors’ findings, along with a series of recommendations to help improve U.S. ICB programs so that they are able to act as influence multipliers in partner countries. 

One of the first major takeaways from the report is that for U.S. capacity-building efforts to be successful, partner leadership needs to be committed to reforms and value what the U.S. is offering. In Kenya and Niger, partner leadership recognized a need for reform and consequently valued the ICB that the U.S. was offering. In contrast, in Nigeria and South Sudan, military leaders often resented U.S. pressure to conduct reforms, limiting the ability of the U.S. to make real progress. 

A second major conclusion reached by the RAND authors is that the U.S. needs to be in it for the long haul when it comes to ICB and SSA. They argue that by working with the same partners on the same issue over a longer period than a typical U.S. embassy tour, it allows for more beneficial working relationships to be established. While the length of a relationship does not necessarily equate to the depth of the relationship, a short-term relationship is unlikely to ever deepen into a full level of trust between both sides. 

Relatedly, the authors also argue that an in-country presence is required in order to maintain and deepen relationships. While it may appear to be self-explanatory, an in-country presence is more advantageous than a remote one, as it allows for more consistent progress, as partners can receive real-time updates and collaboration on important, but tricky, capacity-building issues. 

Watts, Noyes, and Tarini note that in explaining the success or failure of ICB programs, the most valuable ways to ensure success is to have partners with real commitment to reforms, along with U.S. support that is both long-term, and in-country. In essence, more robust partnerships are required for security assistance programs to yield truly transformational results. 

The authors then proceed to offer two overarching recommendations, to go along with five more specific practices U.S. ICB programs should observe when conducting institutional capacity building programs. The first overall recommendation is that the U.S. better prioritize partner resilience, albeit with modest expectations for the degree of transformation achieved. They argue that instead of looking for a complete transformation of a partners’ security sector, the U.S. should instead look for more incremental improvement. However, the authors make clear that where such improvements are not possible, the U.S. needs to be willing to cease security aid if the partner engages in behavior that causes harm to the civilian population.

A second overarching recommendation made by the RAND authors is that the U.S. needs to embed the provision of security resources to partner countries within more comprehensive planning efforts. In essence, the argue that while the Department of Defense has made strides in the assessment, monitoring, and evaluation of their security cooperation programs, there is room for improvement, as the DoD too often uses the Significant Security Cooperation Initiatives process as a way to push predetermined train-and-equip packages rather than as a comprehensive plan for the partner, informed by a country-specific theory of change

When it comes to more specific recommendations, the authors argue that the U.S. needs to codify and actively socialize a common understanding of what institutional capacity-building truly is across the interest of the U.S. government, as that lack of definition has prevented real alignment between DoD and State on ICB programs and what constitutes success for those programs. A second, related recommendation, is that the U.S. strengthen interagency coordination via the creation of a security sector assistance hub to coordinate programs across State, DoD, the NSC, USAID, the Department of Justice, and the Department of Homeland Security. In essence, there needs to be top-level ownership of ICB programs and their goals, along with an interagency process that incorporates the expertise of all relevant stakeholders into the development of these programs. 

The third recommendation the report makes is that the U.S. needs to encourage its partners to commit to reforms through selective, graduated assistance, along the lines of what the U.S. does with the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). As has been noted elsewhere, such a model makes use of quantifiable indicators of performance to identify partners; requires those partners to lead the design and implementation of projects; and not only screens candidates and programs based on a cost-benefit analysis, but conducts a rigorous evaluation of how and why the program succeeded or failed. In essence, an MCC-style interagency security assistance pilot program could make use of positive conditionality, using milestones and a tier system for partners so that they “unlock” further assistance as they complete reform goals, allowing them to eventually “level-up” into a new status, allowing access to even greater forms of assistance. Such a tier system could even gate lethal assistance such that it is not provided until most top-level governance reforms are completed. However, much of that would depend on the individual country involved and their current security environment. 

Relatedly, the authors also argue that the U.S. needs to redouble the assessment, monitoring, and evaluation efforts (AM&E) of its ICB programs. While the 2017 NDAA ushered in a new AM&E program for State’s Title 10 security cooperation programs, the authors argue that obstacles remain, including poor data collection and dissemination, vaguely defined objectives, and resistance to AM&E processes from within the Department. In addition, this is coupled with the fact that ICB programs are notoriously difficult to evaluate. However, the authors assert that State and DoD should redouble their efforts to implement rigorous AM&E for security sector assistance, applying it to its ICB programs through the implementation of reporting and tracking requirements for planners and implementers. As noted in their report, currently, evidence of the efficacy of ICB programs is relegated to after-action reviews of implementers or other anecdotal evidence. A forthcoming RAND study will reportedly show that the DSCA was unable to verify whether a large portion of ICB activities were truly institutional capacity building due to a low level of information available. 

Finally, the report argues that, in order to build relationships with partner countries, the U.S. needs to commit to longer tours and more civilian personnel at AFRICOM; commit more resources to programs like the Global Defense Reform Program; make better use of U.S. programs and organizations that emphasize continuity in partner country programs, such as the National Defense University’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies; and coordinating ICB efforts with allies that may have deeper relationships or a greater degree of influence with partner officials. 

Concluding Thoughts

Competition and Governance in African Security Sectors raises a number of important issues that will be vital for the United States to address if it wishes to transform its relations with African countries, particularly ones that are conducting the difficult transition from conflict-afflicted to post-conflict states. Furthermore, the situation is complicated by the fact that U.S. security assistance to Africa during the Cold War frequently exacerbated the levels of violence, and ignored deteriorating governance by many African partners during the time period. As another RAND report, “Building Security in Africa: An Evaluation of U.S. Security Sector Assistance in Africa from the Cold War to the Present,” notes, the U.S. not only deemphasized governance issues during its Cold War-era competition with the Soviet Union, its security assistance actually served to increase the incidence of civil wars, as it inflamed intercommunal tensions.

What is abundantly clear, is that the way that the U.S. has conducted its security assistance programs—primarily focusing on building the capacity of partner militaries—has yielded only partially satisfactory results, too often failing in preventable ways. In their 2017 report, “Security Sector Governance in Africa: A Handbook,”, the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance comes to some of the same conclusions that the RAND authors do, noting that, some of the many challenges that come with attempting to transform African security sectors are that the partner countries frequently lack a strong tradition of democratic norms; that U.S. interlocutors lack a true understanding of the underlying domestic political context, limiting implementers’ ability to move beyond the defense sector and be truly transformational; and that partners often have differing ideas about the level of importance and involvement of the U.S. over issues of professionalism and ensuring the protection of human rights. These differing perspectives between the U.S. and its African partners leaves them dangerously exposed to Chinese and Russian influence. 

Seemingly all major reports and studies in recent years agree that, as currently constructed, U.S. security sector assistance does not yield the gains that U.S. planners are looking for. Too often, U.S. security sector assistance and institutional capacity building is too narrowly focused on tactical capabilities over the administrative capacity and professionalism of these forces. As argued in the RAND report and elsewhere, the U.S. has not received sufficient bang for their security sector assistance buck, and its security assistance has too often enabled democratic backsliding by partner governments or human rights abuses by partner militaries. Therefore, a new approach is needed. 

Such a new approach, seemingly everyone agrees, requires a renewed focus on creating more lasting relationships with ICB partners, specifically through the creation of high-level, in-country U.S. coordinator positions which can help facilitate partner buy-in. However, before it can do so, the U.S. first needs a more cohesive conception of what ICB efforts should aim to accomplish at the highest level. A focus on simply improving the tactical abilities of individual partner police and military units is insufficient to realize real changes in partner defense institutions that are needed to truly transform the sector into something that provides value for the population. 

Furthermore, if the U.S. wants its institutional capacity building projects to redound to its credit in its global competition with China, then it needs to make sure that ICB programs are leveraged so that they help create better working relationships with partner officials, yielding greater avenues for American influence. In addition, as mentioned in a 2020 Civilians in Conflict report, when designing SSA and ICB programs, it would behoove U.S. decisionmakers to involve civil society, and do so early on in the process, as it would provide meaningful public participation in government decision making, giving the entire process a greater degree of legitimacy in the eyes of the domestic public. 

Finally, the U.S. needs to more stringently monitor and evaluate its ongoing programs, with particular emphasis paid on how the particular program is serving overall U.S. goals in the country. For instance, Mali had been experiencing an extended period of democratic backsliding, but despite that, the country still received nearly $79 million in U.S. development assistance in 2020, with only 1% going to democracy, rights, and governance programming. Such continued foreign assistance allowed and encouraged the government to pursue a security strategy that focused more on driving out extremists than protecting the people, leading to an erosion of government legitimacy, and creating the conditions for the recent coups. As Aude Darnal and Evan Cooper of the Atlantic Council noted last summer, too often, U.S. security assistance goes to forces that undermine the rule of law and human rights, and does little to improve stability in those countries. Part of remedying this involves adopting a “Do No Harm” concept for capacity building programs, endeavoring to ensure that U.S. assistance does not result in making conditions inside the partner country worse by providing overmilitarized assistance to defense establishments that are too fragile to receive it. 

U.S. security sector assistance and institutional capacity building programs are a vital way for the U.S. to provide an item of value to fragile states that are coming back from years of conflict and strife. However, as currently constituted, American assistance too often does as much harm as good, both to the partner country’s population, and to the American reputation abroad. It is time that U.S. decision makers reevaluate these programs, making sure that when security training and assistance is provided to a partner military, its civilian oversight institutions are being built up to a similar degree. In addition, American ICB programs need to be designed from the top-down, starting with the desired end point for partner security sectors, and then determining all the intervening steps necessary to arrive there. In that way, it is important that programmatic steps are properly sequenced, so that military and police forces abilities do not outpace their Ministries of Defense or Interior’s ability to properly oversee them. 

Source: https://www.dscu.mil/documents/publications/greenbook/19_Chapter.pdf?id=1

However, even requirements that security cooperation activities have logic frameworks for capacity building is insufficient if those requirements do not mandate that planners and implementers devise frameworks that have clearly quantifiable metrics. For instance, the DoD’s Defense Security Cooperation University’s guidance on, “Whole of Government Security Cooperation Planning,” outlines an example of a logic framework for a theoretical maritime security and Maritime Domain Awareness mission in a hypothetical partner nation. While the framework does a decent job of building the conceptual underpinnings of a project to improve a partners ability to conduct counter-trafficking and counter-piracy missions, it is both lacking in the real specifics that connect the programming with the problem that is attempting to be addressed, and contains vague generalities such as “[Partner Nation] officials demonstrate explicit national will to contribute to regional security and stability operations.” Such ambiguity is exactly how the U.S. gets into trouble with its security assistance programs. Vagueness, while seemingly innocuous, makes it tremendously difficult to evaluate success once a program is undertaken. What is required then, is a greater degree of specificity from a program’s outset, so that clearly defined, measurable goals are either reached or not, providing evaluators in Washington a much clearer picture of the progress of a given project.

Only once the U.S. ensures that partner militaries have robust levels of civilian oversight and the requisite support structures should ICB programs provide increased lethal assistance to partner armed forces. Furthermore, civilian oversight mechanisms are unlikely to appear overnight. Therefore, U.S. policy makers need to understand that in order to facilitate a transformation of partner countries’ security sectors, they need to make clear that the U.S. is committed for the long-term, with dedicated personnel situated in-country on a continuous basis. 

It is undoubtedly true that many of the U.S.’ African partners need to improve their security sectors in order to improve service delivery and governance in large swathes of their countries wracked by violent extremists and other conflicts. However, it is clear that American train-advise-assist missions have not been getting the job done. If the U.S. wants to see transformational progress in building partner capabilities, it will need to reevaluate how it conducts its ICB programs, only initiating such programs when partners are committed to making demonstrable changes. U.S. success in transforming partner security sectors, if it helps prevent democratic and human rights backsliding, could pay huge dividends in the growing great power competition with China. If the U.S. comes to be seen as the best model for security assistance, in addition to being the preferred model for development, then it will be much better positioned to ward off challenges from China in the coming great-power competition. 

Institutional capacity building is the sine qua non of security sector assistance, and too often, U.S. security assistance is focused too much on a whack-a-mole game of fighting insurgents over creating partners that are able to be positive providers of security in their region. As seen in Uganda, U.S. institutional capacity building has continued despite clear evidence of corruption and human rights abuses, providing its leadership with a sense of impunity. Without first building up the requisite support structures, boosting a partner militaries’ tactical and operational ability is a recipe for disaster. By building up partner competency, without concomitant increases in effective civilian control, the U.S. merely exacerbates the power imbalances that have led to coups in many African countries in just the past few years.

However, U.S. decision makers need to enter discussions about security assistance with clear eyes, and an understanding both of a potential partner’s actual willingness to conduct reforms, and a clear commitment to end programs with partners that do not put in the required level of effort. Cutting off a partner may be difficult, damaging the relationship temporarily and preventing the U.S. from achieving its immediate security objectives. Nevertheless, doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results is the definition of insanity, a waste of taxpayer money, and counterproductive to the aspirations of both the U.S. and partner citizenry. Continuing to work with a partner that fails to initiate reforms or allows its security forces to abuse its population will only damage the U.S.’ reputation in the long term, creating the conditions for future armed extremist groups to form. 


If the United States wishes to see better long-term results, rather than pyrrhic counterterrorism victories, it must reevaluate how it conducts security sector assistance and institutional capacity building programs. If it does not, it will not only continue to throw money away, it will risk losing its African partners to Chinese influence.

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Not Because It Is Easy, But Because It Is Hard: A Call for the U.S. to Help Europe Step Up on Defense

January 21, 2022

Earlier this week, Foreign Affairs published an interesting article from Johns Hopkins University’s Hal Brands, titled, “The Overstretched Superpower: Does America Have More Rivals Than It Can Handle?” The piece posits that the United States’ defense strategy has become out of balance with the foreign policy it pledges it pursues. Brands not only brings up important points about deficits in the current state of U.S. foreign and defense policy, but also touches on the ways in which the world has changed since the end of the Cold War, bringing both new challenges and opportunities for U.S. leaders. Essentially, what Brands argues in his piece is that, despite the Biden administration’s desire to pivot away from a focus on issues in Europe and the Middle East, it is constrained in its ability to do so by trouble in emerging hot-spots in Ukraine, Iran, Ethiopia, and elsewhere

Moreover, Brands argues that the budget cuts associated with the Budget Control Act of 2011 and resultant sequestration in 2013 has forced the Pentagon to shift from a two war doctrine to a one-plus strategy, even though the number of threats has only continued to increase—as Russia began the process of reforming and modernizing its military, and China continued its ascent. Brands further argues that the U.S.’ 2018 National Defense Strategy was an acknowledgement of the fact that the Department of Defense was stretched too thin, but that the response—reducing focus on secondary challenges and focusing on China—has resulted in an America that possesses few good options in the event of future crises. Brands states that it would not take a two-front war with Russia and China to overstretch the U.S., as tensions with Iran could pull U.S. focus back to the Middle East when it is trying to concentrate on the Indo-Pacific. 

In a crisis, U.S. overstretch, Brands implies, could lead adversaries in Moscow and Tehran to push the envelope, in the hopes that they could achieve strategic gains while the U.S. is distracted. In fact, it is entirely possible that the recent Russian buildup around the Ukrainian border is entirely a result of the Kremlin looking to push the U.S. while it is overextended and distracted in Asia. Furthermore, as the former head of U.S. European Command, Gen. Curtis “Michael” Scaparrotti, has stated, Tehran and Beijing will similarly be watching events in Ukraine closely, possibly looking to exploit the situation if the U.S. does feel the need to intervene militarily in the event of further Russian aggression towards Kyiv.

Ultimately, what Brands contends is that the U.S. faces tough choices not only in regards to how to deploy its military power, but also how to ensure that such overstretch does not prove fatal to its ability to manage tensions with Iran, Russia, and other challengers—while still retaining the ability to contain an increasingly aggressive China. This leaves the U.S. in a delicate position, with few options that both achieve U.S. foreign policy goals, while also retaining America’s traditional primacy in dictating the Western course of action vis-à-vis China, Russia, and Iran. As the RAND Corporation’s Mike Mazarr has stated, he agrees that the biggest flaw in current U.S. defense strategy is that it is insolvent, and that, “no amount of feasible mil[itary] buildup will square this circle–we need bold strategic initiatives.” As Mazarr points out, “I’d guess a reason we don’t see this debate is that much of the US natsec community is still in the mindset of “global enforcer of absolute norms” versus a classic great power position of working the levers of global power + influence in clever ways to achieve temporary stability.” To “square this circle” will take bold action: specifically, the United States is going to need to encourage its European partners to take on a larger role when it comes to their own security and defense. 

Supporting European Strategic Autonomy in Defense

While it is likely not the course of action that Mazarr would prescribe, Max Bergmann of the Center for American Progress (CAP) also seems to agree that the U.S. needs to use its global influence and power in clever ways to achieve temporary stability. To that end, he argues, and I agree, that it is time for the U.S. to encourage Europe to take on an increasing level of responsibility for their own defense, even if it is to the detriment of complete European dependence on NATO. Bergmann points to two CAP reports, “Embrace the Union: A New Progressive Approach for Reviving the Trans-Atlantic Alliance,” and, “The Case for EU Defense: A New Way Forward for Trans-Atlantic Security,” both of which argue that instead of continued American reluctance about European integration on defense, the U.S. should actively encourage defense integration in the EU in order to both create a safer Europe, and allow the U.S. to complete its preferred pivot to the Asia-Pacific. Such a move, Bergmann argues, would not only make Europe more secure, it would make the NATO Alliance stronger, as European nations would be better able to contribute to their own collective defense.

In Embrace the Union, Bergmann argues that after the Cold War, and despite a concerted American effort to encourage European integration during the Cold War, there had been a backlash amongst some in U.S. foreign policy circles towards European integration. Particularly, there was a feeling amongst some experts that greater European integration posed a direct threat to the cohesion of the NATO Alliance. Bergmann contends that, as a result of this backlash, the EU is stuck in a dangerous middle ground wherein the EU has a common currency, and monetary union, but no united fiscal policy. As a result of this fragmentation of responsibilities, it has left an EU that is unable to leverage its considerable heft to act on the international stage. 

The Center for American Progress reports pick up on a theme that has been echoed by the current Secretary of State Antony Blinken as far back as 2005, in his paper for Foreign Affairs, “Nothing to Fear: Washington Should Embrace the European Union,” co-authored with Philip H. Gordon and Ronald D. Asmus. In that paper, Blinken, Gordon, and Asmus assert that, “although NATO is still vital, it is by itself too narrow to handle the full range of cooperation needed in the years ahead. In the evolving Europe, the EU will become responsible for key areas of transatlantic cooperation…” and that, “indeed, NATO needs to be more closely connected to the EU to ensure the proper coordination of overall policy and strategy.”

As Blinken, Gordon, and Asmus write later in their piece, “Opposing EU integration…risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy[sic]: Europe would unite against the United States but in part because Washington helped push it in that direction…A successful EU will not mean the emergence of a military competitor: it requires an amazing feat of imagination to conceive of issues or areas in which the EU might act against U.S. interests.” While it is certainly not 2005 anymore, and there are areas where the EU could conceivably act against American interests—particularly in regards to the continued German laissez-faire attitudes towards China. A common approach on challenges—ranging from Russia and China to migration and climate policy—would not only improve European security, but allow the U.S. to pay more attention to issues in Asia. 

While such a shift in U.S. policy will be difficult to achieve—as the U.S.’ traditional interlocutor for EU affairs, the UK, is no longer a member of the Union, and the U.S.’ relationships with France and Germany are strained—Bergmann contends that by pushing for continued EU integration on defense and security policy, the U.S. will help unlock Europe’s ability to be a more forceful actor on the global stage. 

Continuing this line of thought, in The Case for EU Defense, Bergmann, along with co-authors James Lamond and Siena Cicarelli, Bergmann argues that the EU could, by building a stronger European defensive pillar, become a more capable partner for NATO, increasing its ability to act, rather than limiting it. Bergmann and his co-authors contend that, “the major goal of U.S. policy toward Europe should be to foster the emergence of the EU as a major global power and essential partner of the United States. Since hard-power military capabilities still hold immense geopolitical weight, U.S. policy should push the EU to become a prominent defense actor, all the while anchoring it within NATO and the trans-Atlantic alliance.”

As Bergmann has noted elsewhere, EU member states already spend about $200 billion per year on defense, only they do so as twenty-seven different militaries. To that end, the CAP authors propose that the U.S. push its European partners to pool resources on key enabling capabilities, such as airlift, sealift, and missile defense; and to come together on a unified fiscal capacity in order to establish revenues for defense or increase national contributions to the EU’s budget for defense purposes. The authors also propose that the EU either recruit a sizable EU armed forces of its own, or create an “Army of Europeans” as proposed by the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Mark Leonard and German politician Norbert Röttgen. Such an Army would, rather than replace national militaries, be a supplement to that pool of fighters. 

Total EU Defence Spending/Source: https://eda.europa.eu/docs/default-source/brochures/eda---defence-data-report-2019-2020.pdf
Total EU Defence Spending/Source: https://eda.europa.eu/docs/default-source/brochures/eda—defence-data-report-2019-2020.pdf

In such a new European security architecture, and as the EU develops its own military capabilities, there would inevitably be some duplication of efforts. However, the authors contend that such a duplication is simply a natural part of basic military structure, existing to avoid capability gaps. The CAP authors argue that, just as the Pentagon has established coordinating structures, the EU will develop its own structures to avoid duplication with NATO. To that end, they point to a 2017 Munich Security Conference report, which argues that, “the positive steps taken on the path towards stronger cooperation between the EU and NATO have opened new ways of combining the strengths of the two organizations, which had long been ‘interblocking’ rather than interlocking institutions.”

That said, the CAP authors acknowledge that, “a stronger, more confident EU may turn to Washington less and might chafe at U.S. efforts to lead or direct the alliance, causing trans-Atlantic relations to become more fraught.” Such trans-Atlantic incoherence is likely what observers are concerned about when French President Emmanuel Macron makes statements such as the one he made on January 19, when he said that, during France’s presidency of the Council of the European Union, it intends to, “create together a European power of the future…and independent Europe that has given itself the means to decide its own future and not rely on the decision of other major powers.”

However, Europeans deciding to pursue strategic autonomy in defense need not be a cause for doom and gloom in Washington. As Former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development Elbridge Colby has noted, “[Americans] don’t and won’t have a military big enough to increase commitments in Europe *and* have a chance of restoring our edge in Asia against China. We *must* prioritize…The solution: Europeans taking up their own defense.” Colby continues, “There’s absolutely no good reason why Europeans – above all Germans – shouldn’t provide the bulk of their own conventional defense. They’re fully capable of it. European NATO dwarfs Russia in GDP.” Indeed, the Estonian government has announced a €380 million boost to its defense spending on January 20 in order to confront the challenge posed by continued Russian aggression on NATO’s eastern flank. 

Support for EU Defense Among EU Member States/Source: https://cf.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/A-New-Way-Forward-for-TransAtlantic-Sec1.pdf
Support for EU Defense Among EU Member States/Source: https://cf.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/A-New-Way-Forward-for-TransAtlantic-Sec1.pdf

Making Sure European Strategic Autonomy Does Not Lead to Western Strategic Incoherence

The Atlantic Council’s Benjamin Haddad argued on January 19 that, “if advocating for Europeans to take ownership of their security means creating a ‘split’ in the transatlantic relationship, both Europeans and Americans have a big long term problem.” With that in mind, European coordination on defense is not only hindered by a lack of U.S. support, but divisions within the EU on what constitutes the Union’s main threats, and the strategies required to confront them. For instance, one can see how this division is playing out in real-time, with the crisis posed by the massing of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, and the differing levels of perceived threat among individual EU member states. 

Moving forward, as the RAND Corporation’s Stephen J. Flanagan and Lucia Retter elucidated back in November of 2021, EU member states need to come to an agreement, “on what joint EU goals and objectives should be in…crisis management, resilience, capabilities, and partnerships…in order to operationalize the EU’s strategic autonomy and clarify required capabilities. Furthermore, [the U.S.] could encourage the EU and its member states to seek a clear definition and manifestation of strategic autonomy that can be reflected in the forthcoming NATO Strategic Concept and accepted by external partners, particularly the United States and United Kingdom.”

That having been said, one needs only look at some recent actions taken by the German and French governments to see why many are pessimistic about the prospects of greater European coherence on defense and security policy occurring anytime soon. For instance, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on January 19 that, “After years of rising tensions [with Russia], staying silent isn’t a sensible option.” That sentiment was echoed by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who stated that, “it is hard not to see [the Russian buildup] as a threat.” However, behind closed doors, it has been noted that Germany has not only refused to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine, but it has been reported that Germany has taken off the table the option of threatening Russia with a cut-off from the SWIFT international payments system. 

With regards to France, the concern is that Macron’s recent statements about Europe needing a new collective security pact to deal with NATO and Russia mean that France and its Western European partner Germany, will attempt to construct a new European security architecture without consulting the Eastern European nations that are more directly menaced by Russia. As former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves noted on Twitter, “advocating [for Europeans to take ownership of their security] without consulting or briefing other Europeans already has been [a problem] for a long time itself,” and that, “as long as I’ve been in this business…*first* you consult, *then* you announce a new initiative, not the other way around…The result now, though is allies/MSs wondering what is *this*?” In essence, German policy incoherence, and Western European desires to dictate European foreign policy make it more difficult to achieve European unity on security and defense issues. As one EU official noted, “We were given zero notice of [Macron’s] crazy idea…I hope [the Americans] realise this will go nowhere.”

However, despite these difficulties, the U.S. has little choice but to embrace Europeans’ pursuit of increased defense capabilities and strategic autonomy, as the alternative—a weak, divided Europe that is unwilling or unable to defend itself—is not only dangerous for Europeans, but for Americans. Today, the U.S. has the worst of both worlds: an ironclad U.S. commitment to, “defend the Euro-Atlantic community, deter aggression, and project stability,” and a Europe that is both seemingly disengaged on defense and security policy, and lacks the ability to conduct large-scale combat operations, even in their own backyard. 

Regardless, things are not all dour, as the events in Ukraine in recent days have begun to make clear. Despite initial fears that France would go its own way and pursue European talks with Russia without the U.S., French officials have insisted that the French calls for talks, “was not in opposition to the continuing US negotiations and was designed to strengthen rather than undermine Nato unity.” Further, as the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian stated on January 20, France supports, “full convergence on our collective security interest and the involvement of Europeans in these issues,” and that, “this is about nurturing a collective and united transatlantic path of dialogue in which the Europeans assume all their responsibilities and hold their full place with their NATO Allies on a subject that directly concerns their own security.” To that end, France reiterated its commitment to leading NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force as well as its role as part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) deployments to Poland and the Baltic States. 

Furthermore, Germany’s Olaf Scholz has said in recent days that, in the event of a Russian intervention against Ukraine, “everything will be up for discussion,” including moves to sanction the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. As the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Jana Puglierin noted, “Thursday’s visit to Berlin by US secretary of state Antony Blinken is a good chance to signal transatlantic unity on the issue of using the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as ‘leverage’ in relation to Russia’s actions.” While it is certain that, should Russia decide to cut off European gas flows, that it would complicate decision making in Berlin—as 60% of Germans support the pipeline—these are positive steps, and would have unlikely occurred under the guidance of Angela Merkel’s more mercantilist foreign policy. 

The Importance Of, and Barriers To, Trans-Atlantic Strategic Alignment

Despite prognostications that Europeans would be unable to get on the same page regarding Russia, in a January 13 statement by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, prior to her departure for the EU’s Foreign Ministers meeting, said that, “the fact that France is hosting this meeting together with the EU in January at the very beginning of its Presidency of the Council of the EU sends a clear signal that we are staking out our positions as Europeans and are serious about the close ties between EU member states. This is especially important in the current crisis because the EU’s fundamental interests are at stake here – from sovereignty to the territorial integrity of independent states to issues of political and economic cooperation between the EU and Russia to the security situation on the EU’s external borders.” Baerbock further argued that, “especially vis-à-vis autocratic players such as Russia and China it is important to remember that if Europe takes a common approach and speaks with one voice, it is a heavyweight. If, on the other hand, it is divided, it punches beneath its weight.” 

As the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Rachel Ellehuus stated in an April 2021 report, “As the United States and Europe navigate a challenging transatlantic agenda, they must work earnestly to find common ground and reconcile differences in private, lest adversaries exploit these differences. More importantly, they must demonstrate that consultation, compromise, and treating one another with respect produces better, and more enduring, results than bullying and intimidation, making effective multilateralism a reality.”

Despite the clear imperative for the EU and U.S. to work more closely together, it is important to note that there are a number of potential stumbling blocks in getting the two sides’ interests to align. The first is that differing threat perceptions exist between Western and Eastern European states on the true danger posed by Moscow’s belligerence towards Ukraine. A second issue is the fact that the EU’s current attempt to bring together the Union in order to facilitate defense cooperation—Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO)—has had numerous problems when it comes to joint projects between member states. A report from July of 2021 noted that, of the forty-six PESCO projects in progress, approximately twenty projects have been pushed back at least one year. Further, thirty-eight of those projects are in just the “ideation” or “incubation” phases, and none are in the final, “closing” phase. Finally, the leaked report noted that there has been no resources allocated for twenty of the forty-six projects, or approximately 43%. 

In addition to the ongoing capabilities gap, other barriers to greater alignment between the U.S. and Europe include the impact of Brexit on the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy, and feelings of abandonment in Europe caused by the initial Trump presidency and its possible sequel. However, there are ways to manage the impact of Brexit on European defense. Specifically, in 2020, the European Council voted to open up PESCO to participation by third-party states, including the UK. In addition, in June of 2021, the European Union agreed to permit the U.S. to begin cooperation with the European Defense Agency on military mobility projects under the auspices of PESCO, paving the way for future cooperation between the EU and U.S. on vital defense projects.

The Path Ahead

In sum, while it has become abundantly clear that the United States does not possess the ability to credibly deter and defend against both peer competitors Russia and China at the same time, it is also clear that the U.S. still retains a an interest in protecting Eastern Europe from Russian aggression, while still delineating China as the pacing threat. Meanwhile, the U.S. is faced with the reality of a Europe that is, after seventy years of American prodding, taking steps towards becoming a more capable actor in the fields of defense and foreign policy. However, this tension does not have to be damaging to the trans-Atlantic relationship, as Western Europe’s push for strategic autonomy and greater decision making power in defense and foreign policy is ultimately a positive result for the U.S. It has become clear that short of the U.S. massively increasing its military spending, a prospect that is unlikely under the Biden administration, the U.S. would gradually begin to lose the ability to influence affairs in Europe. 

However, if Europe is to take on a stronger role in its own defense, and the EU is to play a role in that transformation, there will need to be a number of conversations between the trans-Atlantic partners not only to avoid duplication, but to ensure that both sides of the Atlantic are getting what they require out of the relationship. Ideally, for the United States, a Europe that become a more capable security actor will be able to provide defense against great power encroachments and handle the climate, migration, and terrorism-related threats that emanate from Europe’s southern neighborhood.

Adding to this conversation, the RAND Corporation published a report last year, “European Strategic Autonomy in Defence: Transatlantic visions and implications for NATO, US, and EU relations,” by Lucia Retter, Stephanie Pezard, Stephen J. Flanagan, Gene Germanovich, Sarah Grand-Clement, and Pauline Paille, which looked at the ways that Europe and the U.S. could work together, while still realizing Europe’s dreams of being a more independent actor. Among the major takeaways from the report are the need for dialogue on how to best structure defense activities, programs, acquisitions, and exercises not only between the EU and U.S., but between individual EU nations themselves. 

Regarding that division of labor, a December 2017 report by Ronja Kempin and Barbara Kunz from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs made clear that the two largest EU economies, France and Germany, “need to agree on both the content and the implication of political autonomy as the sine-qua-non dimension of strategic autonomy.” While such agreement is achievable, the German Institute authors note that Berlin and Paris, “have different strategic cultures,” and that, “[Neither] of these two countries will simply adopt the other’s strategic culture. Therefore, complementarity is the key word.” In sum, it will be vital for the U.S. to first get France and Germany pulling in the same direction before it will be possible to bring aboard the rest of Europe. 

Another issue that could hinder trans-Atlantic cooperation is going to be the relatively poor overall state of many EU militaries. As a November 2021 paper from the Center for Strategic and International Security (CSIS), “Europe’s High-End Military Challenges: The Future of European Capabilities and Missions,” by Seth G. Jones, Rachel Ellehuus, and Colin Wall notes, in wargames posing a hypothetical aggression towards Eastern Europe, even with U.S. assistance, Russian forces could march into Tallinn or Riga within sixty hours. Furthermore, in the event of a missile threat from Iran, European missile defense is lagging, and without extended warning and increases in strategic airlift, it’s unlikely that their forces would be able to play a role during the decisive early days of a conflict with Tehran. Finally, in the event of a conflict with China in the South China Sea, the CSIS authors state that while some European countries are developing next-generation stealth fighters, and the technology to field modern ballistic missile interceptors, it is unlikely that, as a whole, the EU will have the power projection capabilities to present a credible threat in a major conflict against Beijing. The CSIS report notes that European countries also lack sufficient capabilities for: anti-submarine warfare; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; missile defense; precision strike; and the suppression of enemy air defenses. 

Despite this, on balance, the CSIS authors note, “major European states…have a high likelihood of performing most crisis response and limited contingency missions through 2030 without the U.S. aid. Europe’s ability to perform critical missions is especially high in Europe, the Middle East, and parts of East, West, and North Africa…” Therefore, while EU states are unlikely to possess the ability to conduct high end operations without U.S. assistance in the near future, they should be perfectly capable of handling most contingencies in their own neighborhood. The only thing they are lacking is a credible defense against aggression from Russia, which could be achieved by European states striving for greater integration, as advocated above. Combined, the armed forces of just Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Poland possess over 800,000 active duty troops, which compares well to the approximately 1 million total active duty personnel that Russia can bring to bear in a potential fight. A Europe that is capable of guarding its own backyard against threats short of great power conflict is precisely what the U.S. should be looking for out of the trans-Atlantic relationship. 

What will not help, however, are visions of strategic autonomy that look to take on competencies that are best left to the U.S. For instance, while France may rightly view itself as an Indo-Pacific “resident power”, it does not mean that their interests are best served by attempting to emulate the U.S.’ global reach and capabilities. While the United States has a population approximately five times the size of France, it spends over fifteen times what Paris does on defense. In essence, despite the Indo-Pacific area being home to 1.5 million French citizens, it simply makes little economic sense for France to be so focused on their defense, when the U.S. has a basing structure to go along with its declared interest in the safety and security of the people of the region. While the AUKUS row may make working together on Indo-Pacific security more difficult, it does not change the fact that this is a key area of overlap that would have to be eliminated if the two sides wanted to work together in an efficient manner. 

However, EU nations are not the only ones that will have to be willing to accept some pain in order to achieve greater trans-Atlantic burden sharing on defense. As Raluca Csernatoni wrote in a December 2021 paper for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “various policy documents have pointed out that for the EU to become a more strategically autonomous global defense actor, it will need a stronger European defense industry and market…and increased spending on frontier security and defense research and innovation.” The author further notes that, following the Cold War, rising costs for arms programs forced budget cuts in the U.S. and Europe. However, while, “the U.S. government and firms, being able to exploit economies of scale and the advantages of a large and integrated national market, were comparatively quick to consolidate their defense industrial landscapes,” whereas, “Europeans underwent a series of joint ventures and mergers aimed at generating the scale required to competitively develop complex weapons systems, but such efforts were continuously hampered by concerns about autonomy, security of supply, and domestic jobs.” Csernatoni concludes that, “The United States was able to further penetrate the rich European defense market not only by exploiting interoperability to promote the direct sale of U.S. products, but also by leveraging interdependence with European allies, while maintaining a dominant position in supply chains.” As a 2017 paper for the Armament Industry European Research Group pointed out, “the dominant position of the US defence industry continues to overshadow the global arms trade.” 

Therefore, if the U.S. is going to continue to encourage EU member states to take on more responsibility for their own defense, Washington will have to come to grips with the fact that this will mean encouraging a more robust European defense industrial architecture, even if it is to the detriment of the U.S. defense industrial base. While such a strategy would not directly address concerns about weaknesses in the U.S. defense industrial base vis-à-vis China, it need not clash with key U.S. goals, such as increasing the frequency of competitive awards for new capabilities; rewarding reduced development times from contractors; funding projects with scaled potential; or supporting investment into basic research. 

While diffusing responsibility for defense equipment across both the European and U.S. industrial sectors would carry with it impacts across the entire U.S. defense and aerospace sector, that type of disruption may simply have to be the price of doing business. There will be those that argue that a dominant defense industrial sector is key to achieving U.S. supremacy in technology, as our lead in defense is what enables our defense firms to innovate. However, while calls of poverty from the defense sector may prompt some to be concerned about such a shift, it must be recognized that this is an industry that posted $551 billion in revenues for FY 2020, despite the pandemic causing the global economy to contract by 3.5%. It is likely that, while the U.S. defense industry would have to take a hit in order to promote the European sector, the sector should still be able to provide the U.S. military with cutting-edge technology and equipment. 

In all, there is a vision of European strategic autonomy which aligns closely with U.S. goals in Europe, Asia, and beyond. In such a world, EU leaders, in conjunction with the United States, come together to truly consult on common security issues, from Russian encroachments in Eastern Europe, to Chinese provocations in the South China Sea. Despite the fact that the U.S. spends over $500 billion more on defense than all twenty-seven EU member states combined, U.S. leaders will have to recognize that while they represent 332 million people, the EU’s leaders represent 447.7 million, meaning that if the U.S. wants Europe to take on greater responsibility for defense, it will have to concede some level of strategic and operational control to Europe. 

Strategically, the U.S. is stretched thin, and despite years of encouraging European capitals to take a stronger hand in their own defense, European leaders remain skeptical of defense initiatives that do not play to its strengths. However, a strong, stable, and more militarily capable Europe, that is able to fend off regional challengers, is of vital interest to a United States that wants to complete its pivot to Asia. While such a shift will be difficult, and requires a greater degree of consultation and agreement than the U.S. and EU members have been able to achieve so far, the only other option is a dangerous duplication of efforts that risks not only European security interests, but vital American ones as well. U.S. leaders and even the American public may not enjoy a relationship where the U.S. no longer dictates the course of action, but it appears to be the only solution that ensures the safety and security of both populations while limiting American overextension.

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Remorselessly Transactional: Offshore Balancing and the Moral Cost of Abandoning Ukraine

January 14, 2022

For the first blog post of the new year, I would like to return, once again, to a topic that I have visited several times in the past year: the situation in Ukraine. More specifically, I think that it is important to address some of the arguments made by realist international relations scholars, namely that the U.S. should refrain from providing military support for Ukraine, as the country is not of vital interest to the United States or its people. As I have mentioned previously, I tend to disagree with such conceptions of the world. That said, as political scientist Joseph Nye explains, realist scholars from George F. Kennan to Emma Ashford would argue that the international relations world is an anarchic realm where states must provide for their own defense, power matters most, and where the U.S. needs to look out for its own interests over all things. As Nye remarks, a cynical French official once told him that, “I define good as what is good for the interests of France. Morals are irrelevant.” However, Nye notes that a moral foreign policy must consider its consequences, “such as maintaining an institutional order that encourages moral interests, in addition to particular newsworthy actions such as helping a dissident or a persecuted group in another country.”

Ultimately, Nye’s 2019 article for the Texas National Security Review, “What Is a Moral Foreign Policy?”, argues that in evaluating the morality of a particular foreign policy course of action, Americans should judge those courses of action through the lens of realism, liberalism, and cosmopolitanism to determine whether the proper moral choice has been made. He argues that individuals can use an “ethical scorecard” to gauge the intentions, means, and consequences of a given course of action. Essentially, Nye argues that a moral calculus in international relations is vital because, as Henry Kissinger has argued, “calculation of power without a moral dimension will turn every disagreement into a test of strength,” endangering the liberal international order. 

In a world where there are those that would like to bury the idea of the liberal international order, it is a good time to offer a few words in its defense, while still examining what its realist critics have to say, particularly as it applies to the situation in Ukraine. Those critics like to point out all the ways in which the U.S. failed to live up to its professed liberal world order. In regards to Ukraine, there are those that argue that the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine did not beget any further land grabs from Putin or from China. However, such criticism either misses the point that of course the U.S. should live up to its professed goals. Further, arguments that the lack of robust response to the 2014 invasion will not provoke future land grabs ignores the fact that Putin is aiming for a second bite at the Ukrainian apple, not a first. What is clear is that there are no easy answers, and that there is nothing that should be off of the table.

Realism, Offshore Balancing, and Russia

There are those that would say that the U.S. has no business in Ukraine, that we should leave the country to its fate at the hands of Russia. Many of those critics of current U.S. policy would seem to be advocating a realist strategy, and more specifically, a strategy of offshore balancing. 

The theory, which emerged in the late 1990s in a paper by Christopher Layne, argues that the post-Cold War philosophy of preponderance—wherein the United States pursued not only its own interests, but the perceived interests of its allies, in an attempt to prevent the emergence of a multipolar order—is not only exceedingly costly, but causes the U.S. to become dangerously overextended. Further, Layne argues that this strategy of preponderance encourages the U.S. to defend its allies interests in areas of peripheral interest to itself. Here, he offers the example of the U.S. intervention in the Balkans in the 1990s, arguing that the intervention was animated by an overriding concern to ensure European stability and to prevent the conflict from spreading. Leaving aside the fact that there are accounts which argue that the intervention was at least partially motivated by humanitarian concerns, Layne argues that many, including then-Senator Richard Luger and former Director of the National Security Agency William Odom, were motivated to intervene due to mainly economic- and stability-related concerns. He argues that this misperception of U.S. vital interest too often causes it to become overextended, causing it to seek to create security in areas of the world that are of peripheral interest. 

As an alternative, Layne proposes offshore balancing, a strategy which, “defines U.S. interests narrowly in terms of defending the United States’ territorial integrity and preventing the rise of a Eurasian hegemon. As an offshore balancer, the United States would disengage from its military commitments in Europe, Japan, and South Korea.” The benefit to such a strategy is that—as the U.S. no longer has to worry about the emergence of a hegemon in Europe or Eurasia— it insulates the U.S. and maximizes its relative position in the international system. Layne argues that this retrenchment would not cause potential rivals to question American resolve, as the U.S. would simply be pulling back from areas of peripheral interest, and rivals would know that our resolve would be much greater when it comes to defense of a truly vital interest. Layne believes that the U.S. post-Cold War strategy of preponderance posed the greatest burden on the one partner (the United States) whose security was least at risk. Layne does acknowledge that the strategy was unassailably successful during the Cold War, as the Soviets were defeated, Germany and Japan became vital U.S. allies, and the U.S. became wildly prosperous. However, he notes that this did not come without a cost. 

In more recent years, John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt penned, “The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy,” which argues that the U.S.’ post-Cold War liberal hegemony is a “revisionist grand strategy” that calls on the U.S. to commit its power to promote democracy and defend human rights wherever they are threatened. The authors argue that this strategy has been a failure that has led to costly debacles in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, and Afghanistan. 

Like Layne, Mearsheimer and Walt argue that instead of pursuing liberal hegemony, the U.S. should husband its strength, only expending its efforts to defend vital interests in Europe, Northeast Asia, and the Persian Gulf, in order to prevent the emergence of a regional hegemon. For the authors, these regions are important, as the first two are key centers of industry, and the Persian Gulf produces nearly ⅓ of the world’s oil. In areas of the world where there is no potential hegemon emerging, Mearsheimer and Walt argue that the U.S. should allow regional partners to take over the responsibility for their own defense, with the U.S. providing assistance, as needed, if things get too far out of hand. Only in the event that those regional powers could not handle the job should the U.S. get involved, the theory goes. The obvious advantages to such a strategy are that it would reduce the amount of spending the U.S. would need to do on defense, allowing for more social spending, and would reduce the burden on the U.S. military. Furthermore, the authors argue that such a strategy would reduce the risk of terrorism to the United States homeland, as U.S. military deployments are often named as the inspiration for terrorist such as Osama bin Laden. 

Mearsheimer and Walt argue that offshore balancing allows the U.S. to be flexible enough to keep its troops at home, while still allowing it to intervene if necessary. In addition, they argue that by focusing solely on the U.S. core goals, the U.S. would be able to conserve its resources and become an even stronger power in the future as it spends the money that would have been spent on defense on infrastructure, education, and research. Finally, they reject the idea that the U.S. must promote freedom and protect human rights abroad, stating that spreading democracy at the point of a gun has not worked in Afghanistan or Iraq, and that a better way would be to merely set a good example. 

For Mearsheimer and Walt, a better strategy would be to pursue a strategy of preventing China from emerging as a regional hegemon in Asia; to end American military presence in Europe and turn NATO over to Europeans; and to return to an offshore balancing strategy in the Persian Gulf. The two authors argue that offshore balancing, “exploits the country’s providential geographic position and recognizes the powerful incentives other states have to balance against overly powerful or ambitious neighbors. It respects the power of nationalism, does not try to impose American values on foreign societies, and focuses on setting an example that others will want to emulate.”

Offshore Balancing and Ukraine

When it comes to Ukraine, realists and offshore balancers like Mearsheimer and Walt have opposed NATO expansion, believing that a declining Russia not only did not need to to be contained, but that enlargement would give it an incentive to cause trouble in the region, as it would feel threatened. Further, they argue that Putin’s aggressive behavior has been motivated by legitimate security concerns, feeling that, as Ukraine had been the avenue for prior invasions of his country, its potential to join NATO posed an unacceptable national security risk to Russia.  

Mearsheimer, in his piece arguing that the West is responsible for the situation in Ukraine, contends that the West should instead allow for Ukraine to become a buffer state, akin to Austria during the Cold War, while still allowing Ukraine to retain its sovereignty. Mearsheimer argues that while Ukraine may have the right to petition to become a part of NATO, the West similarly has the ability to decline that petition, as Ukraine is not of vital interest to the U.S. Walt similarly argues in a more recent article for Foreign Policy that, as there is no potential hegemon in Europe and one is unlikely to emerge, “the United States should gradually disengage, therefore, and let the Europeans provide for their own security.” 

Essentially, there exists a divide between those that believe that Russian aggression towards Ukraine is motivated by a fear of NATO expansion, and those who feel it is motivated by a mistaken historical belief that the Russian and Ukrainian nations are made up of, “one people” that must be united together. Those who advocate a realist and offshore balancing approach seem to fall under the first camp, whereas those who feel that the U.S. should intervene—if need be, militarily—would appear to believe that Moscow is pursuing an unwarranted, revanchist, assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty. Those who advocate bolstering the Western military presence in eastern Europe argue that, at least until the Russian aggression towards Georgia and Ukraine, NATO had abided by its commitments in the NATO-Russia Founding Act to not only refrain from deploying nuclear weapons, but from permanently stationing combat forces on the territory of new members. This comes despite the fact that, when it comes to Ukraine, Russia itself has violated not only the NATO-Russia Founding Act, but the UN Charter, the Helsinki Final Act, and the Paris Charter. More damagingly, Russia has violated the Budapest Memorandum, which specifically guarantees the territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. 

Offshore balancers would seemingly say that Ukraine is a European concern, not a North American one, and that if the fall of Ukraine posed a serious problem to the rest of Europe, then it should be Europeans that band together for Ukraine’s security. Realists would point to the European reluctance to admit Ukraine into NATO to illustrate how little Europe seems to fear further Russian predations on Ukraine. 

Practical Issues with Offshore Balancing

There are, however, a number of problems that offshore balancing fails to account for, up to, and including, its moral and reputational failings—all of which combine to render the strategy problematic, at best. As noted by Hal Brands in a 2015 article for the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the benefits of offshore balancing are far more meager in reality than they are in theory. For instance, Brands notes that the current U.S. strategy of liberal hegemony only requires spending between 3-4% of GDP on defense, a figure that has declined from the 6% or more spent during the Cold War. Further, he notes that the military forces of an offshore balancer still need to be fairly robust, “capable of rapid, decisive global power-projection, with all the massive costs that endeavor entails.” Finally, Brands argues that offshore balancing’s retrenchment reduces American influence abroad, reducing American leverage and influence to involve allies in counterterrorism, counterproliferation, and even counterpiracy missions. 

As noted in a 2016 article for the same Foreign Policy Research Institute, Frank Hoffman of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University argues that offshore balancing should instead be referred to as “Retreat Ashore”, as it advocates an abandonment of partners in Europe and Asia. In addition, he argues that there is a dangerous supposition contained in offshore balancing, that regional powers will have the will and capacity to stabilize their immediate region. 

As Hugo Meijer and Stephen G. Brooks wrote in an article for the journal International Security in April of last year:

“Europe is characterized by profound, continent-wide divergences across national defense policies, particularly threat perceptions, as well as by a fundamental defense capacity shortfall that cannot be closed anytime soon because of a series of overlapping challenges. Given the combination of strategic cacophony and capacity gaps, which are mutually reinforcing, Europeans are currently not in a position to autonomously mount a credible deterrent and defense against Russia. This situation would likely continue for a very long time, even if there were a complete U.S. withdrawal from the continent, and all the more so in the event of a partial U.S. withdrawal, a much more likely counterfactual. If a U.S. pullback were to occur, it would leave Europe increasingly vulnerable to Russian aggression and meddling, allowing Russia to exploit Europe’s centrifugal dynamics to augment its influence. A U.S. withdrawal would also likely make institutionalized intra-European defense cooperation appreciable harder. Accordingly, a U.S. pullback would have grave consequences for peace and stability on the continent.”

Furthermore, arguments that the U.S. and its allies, “should abandon their plan to westernize Ukraine and instead aim to make it a neutral buffer between NATO and Russia, akin to Austria’s neutral position during the Cold War”, are confronted with the reality that a Ukraine dispossessed of its Crimean possessions, has a polity that has moved to be even more in favor of economic integration with the West since 2014. As the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy’s Daniel Drenzer wrote in a 2015 article for the Washington Post, it is worth noting that in Putin’s 2014 Valdai Discussion Club speech, the Russian leader said that, “We have told our American and European partners that hasty backstage decisions, for example, on Ukraine’s association with the EU, are fraught with serious risks to the economy. We didn’t even say anything about politics; we spoke only about the economy, saying that such steps, made without any prior arrangements, touch on the interests of many other nations, including Russia as Ukraine’s main trade partner, and that a wide discussion of the issues is necessary (emphasis added).”

In the end, the argument that Putin will be persuaded to accept a militarily neutral Ukraine that still attempts to emulate the West economically and socially, is unpersuasive for a variety of reasons. In no particular order, these include the fact that Putin is unlikely to see a robust democracy at his immediate periphery, especially in a country whose people he views as Russian, as anything but a direct threat to his regime. Furthermore, strong institutions, the rule of law, and economic prosperity that is achieved through better relations with the West is anathema to Putin, and would be seen as a direct threat to his rule in Moscow. 

As former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul writes in his essay, “Domestic Determinants of Russian Foreign Policy,” it was, “domestic events inside Ukraine, not a change in the global balance of power,” that shaped Putin’s decision making. McFaul argues that without, “the Revolution of Dignity, there would have been no Russian annexation or support for separatists. Had those who came to power in Kyiv in 2014 expressed ideological affinity with Putin, Russia would have not annexed Crimea or sparked a war in eastern Ukraine…If Slavs succeeded in consolidating democracy in Ukraine, Putin’s theory about the Slavic need for a strong, autocratic ruler with orthodox conservative values would be weakened.”

Further, as Anne Applebaum wrote in a piece for the Atlantic a few weeks ago, “A successful, prosperous, Western-facing democratic Ukraine would indeed pose a dire ideological threat to Russia, as well as to Belarus and to other autocracies in the region and around the world. It would prove to the inhabitants of other autocracies that they can escape the influence of their greedy, brutal leaders. Losing Ukraine, by contrast, would reinforce dictators in Moscow, Minsk, and even Beijing.” 

Morality and International Relations

All of this arrives back at the thinking of Joseph Nye, and whether there is a way to determine the morality of U.S. foreign policy. As Nye notes in his paper for the Texas National Security Review, the Swiss-American international relations theorist Arnold Wolfers once wrote that, “the interpretation of what constitutes a vital national interest and how much value should be attached to it is a moral question. It cannot be answered by reference to alleged amoral necessities inherent in international politics.” Further, Wolfers noted that, “international politics offer some opportunities and temptations for immoral action on a vast and destructive scale; they tend to present themselves in the guise of ‘necessity of state.’” Wolfers argues that, “statesmen need not be fooling either themselves or others…nor need they apologize if, on occasion, they choose a conciliatory or even a generous course of action, though a more egotistical policy would promise more tangible national benefits.” Wolfers says that leaders should instead be judged on whether they made the best choices that their circumstances presently permitted them to. 

While it is certainly true that survival comes first, and that the U.S. will not be in a position to defend anyone if it is not strong itself, a realist strategy of offshore balancing when it comes to eastern Europe would only seem to partially satisfy some of Nye’s seven criteria for judging U.S. leaders’ moral choices. While a strategy of offshore balancing would undoubtedly reduce the number of conflicts the U.S. is involved in abroad, it would not, as Nye states, present, “a vision that expresses widely attractive values both at home and abroad, but also prudently balances those values and assesses risk so that there is a reasonable prospect of success.” While Nye correctly notes that American leaders should be judged by whether their decisions promoted the country’s long-term national interests, it is also true that those decisions should also respect cosmopolitan values regarding human life and avoid, “extreme insularity that totally discounts harm to foreigners.”

Therefore, it is useful to examine a potential offshore balancing strategy towards Ukraine through Nye’s morality scorecard. An offshore balancing strategy’s moral vision is one that focuses on the preeminence of American lives over those of foreign ones. However, Pew Research polling data from December 2019 finds that a majority (53%) of Americans believe that it is best for the future of the United States to be active in world affairs, while just 46% say that our leaders should focus more on problems at home. In essence, while offshore balancing may be attractive to the minority in America, it would not comport with the majority’s values. In terms of prudence, and protecting against unintended consequences, it is hard to argue that offshore balancing would not at least minimize the number of unintended consequences facing the United States, as permitting Russia a sphere of privileged interest in Ukraine would likely satisfy its current appetites, reducing the risk of military conflict between Russia and the U.S. 

When examining Nye’s third criteria—the use of force—one needs to determine whether military intervention is needed to ensure the sovereignty of Ukraine and its territorial integrity, or whether more economic means would be the better mode of pressuring Moscow. As the U.S. has not yet resorted to force in Ukraine, it is hard to evaluate this particular criteria, though it should be noted that an offshore balancing strategy would keep U.S. troops out of Ukraine, whether a Russian invasion harmed civilians or not, making it tough to judge the outcome of such an event until it occurs. 

Regarding Nye’s fourth criteria, liberal concerns, it is hard to argue that an offshore balancing strategy satisfies the concerns of those who are concerned about respecting the rights of individuals and institutions in Ukraine. As noted above, by invading Ukraine, Russia has violated not only a number of agreements to which they are signatory, but they violate the right of Ukrainians to enjoy both territorial integrity and national sovereignty. 

Nye’s fifth criteria is to examine whether the decision being made is good for long-term American interests. As with the use of force, it is hard to accurately examine the long-term effects of offshore balancing in terms of Ukraine, as there is still a great deal of disagreement over whether the Kremlin will still wish to take further salami slices out of Ukraine if the West agrees to never permit Ukraine to join NATO. 

Nye’s penultimate criteria through which to judge morality in foreign policy decision making is whether the decision maker considered the interests of other peoples and minimized the risk of causing them unnecessary harm. While there are those that say that NATO will never permit Ukraine to join the Alliance, and that American offers to the contrary are merely causing the very Russian aggression towards Ukraine that NATO membership seeks to avoid, that argument only holds up if the West truly does have no intention to admit Ukraine into the Alliance. 

Finally, Nye’s seventh criteria is whether a leader has shown respect for the facts and is attempting to broaden the moral discourse. While one can easily argue that offshore balancing respects the facts on the ground—that protecting Ukraine militarily would be costly in terms of both lives and spending—such a strategy would, if anything, shrink the moral discourse. A strategy of retrenchment, which tells the rest of the world that, “The United States is safely ensconced in its North American cocoon, the rest of you are on your own,” would be not only monumentally selfish, but would suggest to our European allies in London, Berlin, and Paris, that they should feel free to do the same to the Baltic States or eastern Scandinavia. 

It is certainly naïve to think that, left to their own devices, western Europe would—in any significant way—go to bat for eastern Europe if Russia continued to take salami slices out of its neighbors in the coming years. One can easily foresee a scenario in which western Europe—whose countries are slated to experience capability shortfalls at the higher end of the conflict spectrum, limiting its ability to conduct large-scale crisis management without the U.S.—flounders, and draws in on itself. Ultimately this retrenchment could either reach a point where Russia is either able to reemerge as a regional hegemon, or, more likely, merely retains its ability to act as a dangerous predator on Europe’s periphery. Advocates of offshore balancing may retort that this is why the U.S. should keep a robust military, even if it pulls back to its shores to focus on the China challenge. However, as has been noted elsewhere, NATO faces difficulties when attempting a theoretical reinforcement of Georgia, Ukraine, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden, or Finland. American retrenchment would only compound those problems in the event of a future need to intervene in eastern Europe. 

Concluding Thoughts

The decision to support Ukraine militarily, or not, may be one of the most important decisions that the Biden administration makes during its time in office. Whatever course of action the administration decides on, its next moves in Ukraine will set the stage for the next phase of the relationship with Russia. With the 2020 Russian Constitutional reforms in the rearview mirror, Vladimir Putin has few constraints keeping him from the reins of power in Moscow for, at least, the remainder of the decade. Both courses of action in Ukraine, to intervene militarily or not, carry with it enormous risks to the future security of the United States. If the U.S. does decide to intervene, it could mean a direct military conflict with a peer rival for the first time since the end of the Second World War. If the U.S. does not support Ukraine militarily, and pulls back from Europe, there may well be severe reputational costs, as the West has been outlining a path for Ukraine’s NATO accession since at least 2009’s Declaration to Complement the Charter on a Distinctive Partnership. While some might say that American ambivalence towards potential allies may not have a direct effect on core U.S. alliances, one only needs to look at Japan’s fears of American abandonment that existed under President Trump to see that a strategy of offshore balancing could have a tremendously deleterious effect on key alliances.

Further, as the United States still likes to tout itself as a champion of democracy, abandonment of Ukraine at this critical moment, as it attempts to maintain its sovereignty and territorial integrity, may have a tremendous impact on the ability of the Zelenskyy administration to complete the reforms necessary to rid Ukraine of its endemic corruption. As it is, the United States has a history of lecturing Ukraine on its corruption issues, and if the U.S. agrees to the Finlandization of Ukraine, it is hard to see how the Zelenskyy administration will have either the will or the political capital to see through the corruption reforms that have, until now, been slow, but progressing. If integration with the West is off the table, it is hard to see the Zelesnkyy administration doing anything other than looking out for its own interests, which will continue to stagnate wages and hurt average Ukrainians. 

If anything, the Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea has been too little rather than too great. While there are those that claim that Western sanctions are counterproductive, hurting American businesses and initially causing a “rally around the flag” effect in Moscow as Putin’s approval rating shot up, there are signs that things have been changing. An October 2021 Levada Center poll found that trust in the Putin administration has declined to just 53%, down 18% since 2017, and 27% since his high of 80% just after the invasion of Ukraine. Further, U.S. sanctions have had an enormous effect on the Russian economy, reducing average GDP growth to just 0.3% per year since sanctions were imposed in 2014. 

Ultimately, however, the sanctions regime up until now has been insufficient to change the Kremlin’s calculus regarding Ukraine. Furthermore, it is certainly fair to say that the weakness of the Western response to the 2014 Russian invasion, if not invited this behavior, certainly did little to discourage it. If the United States and its European NATO allies had been more resolute, issuing joint, crippling sanctions to Russian sovereign debt and sweeping sectoral sanctions, it may have convinced Putin to back down in the intervening years. However, the ineffectual U.S. approach under the Obama and then Trump administrations has left the U.S. in a tough position. While it does not mean that the economic toolkit is empty, it does mean that what is left are highly escalatory options. 

The first, a Western cutoff of Russia from the SWIFT international payments system, may or may not have enough of an impact to move the needle. Another path, which would include secondary sanctions on the trading of Russian sovereign debt, would perhaps be even more provocative, increasing the Russian government’s cost of borrowing from 0.5% to 0.8%. While these sanctions would likely be unpopular both in the U.S. business community and Europe, it does present a path to ratcheting up the pain on Moscow short of Western military involvement. Coupled with a renewed commitment to tackle the flow of Russian dark money into the U.S. and UK, it offers the West a strong option to attempt to coerce Russia, even if Western leaders decide military support for Ukraine is not the path forward.

Regarding Ukraine, there does seem to be no simple solution that ensures Ukrainian sovereignty while keeping costs to the West minimal. However, it is seemingly inescapable that a strategy of offshore balancing would be an abandonment of the people of Ukraine who participated in the Euromaidan revolution in support of Ukraine’s Western integration.

Furthermore, there is the fact that, in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, the Russian Federation directly committed to refrain from either the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. Russian actions in 2014 were a direct violation of both the letter and spirit of the agreement. Any argument that Ukraine has a responsibility to abide by the strictures of the Minsk Protocol while ignoring the fact that Russia violated their own, quarter century-old agreement with Ukraine, would seem to be putting the onus to make concessions on a country that was subject to an unlawful invasion, rather than the country that perpetrated the unlawful aggression. Furthermore, any deal regarding the Finlandization of Ukraine would likely result in the ending of sanctions, as Russia would likely insist that—since there is no longer a dispute over Crimea or the invasion—Western sanctions on their country be ended. This would further violate the spirit of the agreement made between the U.S. and Ukraine in the Budapest memorandum. While the United States should certainly be willing to confirm to Russia that Ukraine is not at the point yet where it is able to become a member of NATO, Washington should make clear that it will not permit Ukraine to be preyed upon by its neighbor simply because it espouses a mistaken, revanchist worldview. 

It is hard to argue that the Ukrainians, and by extension, the West, are in an exceedingly tough position. The situation appears to be similar to a poker player who is drawing a gutshot straight, with few options, and little hope. The parallels to Vietnam are unnerving, and the idea of getting into bed militarily, with a Zelenskyy administration that could turn out just as corrupt as that of Ngo Dinh Diem, should certainly give American decision makers pause. 

However, it must be made clear that abandoning Ukraine to its fate would be saying that since the country simply does not have enough economic importance to the United States, then the fate and freedoms of its people are of no consequence to Americans. Meanwhile, the U.S. is still a country that spends $768.2 billion on defense, with a public appetite for even more, and a majority support for sending U.S. troops to Ukraine’s defense in the event of further Russian aggression. One can say that just because the public supports a certain course of action does not make it wise, and that U.S. retrenchment is the best course of action. However, those that support a strategy of offshore balancing will seemingly have a hard time selling the concept to an American public that still sees itself as the defender of democracy in the world, for better or worse. The unipolar moment may be gone, but it does not mean that Americans wish to abandon their place of moral leadership in the world. 

In the end, it is indeed hard to disagree with those that say that the best path forward for the United States would be to pull back, to husband its strength, and to protect against the continuing rise of China. However, there are many issues with such a course of action, including the potential impact of American retrenchment on key U.S. alliances, particularly with Japan and South Korea. Whether or not those countries still feel that the U.S. will come to their aid in the event that Beijing turns hostile would be an open question. While a U.S. pullback might convince Beijing that Japan was less of a threat, it could just as easily decide that the time is ripe to seize the Senkaku islands, in the hope that the U.S. would remain uninvolved. Those that advocate offshore balancing tend not to indicate exactly when they would commit U.S. military forces, as even genocides are not something offshore balancers are comfortable with confidently intervening in. 

Overall, it is easy to see the benefits of offshore balancing: it saves money, it potentially reduces the risks of terrorism, and minimizes the U.S. global military footprint. However, specifically regarding Ukraine, it is impossible not to see that it would amount to an abandonment of a fledgling democracy to the predation of a neighbor. One can say all that they want about how international relations is a jungle, and that the U.S. has made such remorselessly transactional calculations in the past, and will do so again in the future. However, it is very likely that the tepid U.S. response to the 2014 invasion is exactly what is inviting Russia to take a second bite at the Ukrainian apple. If the U.S. abandons Ukraine, and permits Moscow to dictate Kyiv’s foreign policy, it may likely spell the end of real democratic reform in Ukraine, and possibly condemn the country’s populace to more decades of crony capitalism. Furthermore, once the U.S. makes a deal to trade away Ukraine’s sovereignty, it will be nearly impossible to reverse course if Russia decides that dictating Ukraine’s foreign policy is not enough, and that it wants to now dictate its domestic policy. In such a situation, just as they warn liberal internationalists that they risk overcommitting the United States, offshore balancers need to be ready to reap what they sow when it comes to Ukraine. A remorselessly transactional strategy of U.S. retrenchment may be the best way to go, but it can’t help but feel like an abandonment of American moral principles.

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Half Measures: The Biden Administration’s FY 2022 Defense Department Budget Request

December 17, 2021

On December 7th, the House of Representatives passed a $768 billion defense policy bill, increasing the Pentagon’s budget by approximately $25 billion over what the Biden administration had requested. Then, on December 15th, the Senate approved the bill on an 88-11 line, and the President is expected to sign the measure despite the increase in funding over what was requested. Some of the differences between the administration’s request and what is being funded are $4.7 billion more for procurement of five additional naval vessels, five extra F-15EX multi-role fighters, and twelve F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets. Budgets, and the priorities that they reveal, are important guides to what an administration truly values. As argued by Lawrence J. Korb at the Center for American Progress, “there is little that President Biden does in his first months in office that will be more significant and have more impact than his proposed FY 2022 defense budget and FY 2026 defense programs.” 

Now, as the year draws to a close—and this blog wraps up until January—it is as good a time as any to take a look at some of the recent reports and papers that have come out regarding the defense budget for Fiscal Year 2022. Of particular note are a series of reports analyzing the strategy and budget contexts for military forces in FY 2022 by Mark F. Cancian at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an analysis of funding trends by Todd Harrison and Seamus P. Daniels, and an evaluation of topline budget figures by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments’ (CSBA) Travis Sharp. 

As Lawrence Korb and Kaveh Toofan pointed out in an piece in late October for the blog Just Security, “Many of Biden’s supporters who are disappointed that his budget essentially ratifies Trump’s projected budget contend that it is a placeholder and that the FY2023 budget will make the tough decisions Biden has so far avoided. But this assertion ignores the fact that presidents who have made significant changes in defense spending have normally done so in their first year in office.” This distinction is important, because, as noted in Travis Sharp’s CSBA report, U.S. presidential administrations, and their spending patterns on defense, can be lumped into one of three groups based on the rate of first year real growth in defense spending: “Boosters”, whose first year real growth rate exceeds 5%; “Cutters”, whose first year rates fell below -5%; and “Maintainer” administrations, whose first year rates fell in between those two extremes. Importantly, Sharp makes clear that those first year budgets go a long way towards determining the overall trajectory of defense budgets over the life of an administration. Therefore, despite the FY 2022 request being largely a creation of the outgoing Trump administration, the fact that the Biden administration kept the figures as steady as they have does indicate that the administration is unlikely to diverge too radically from the prior administration’s defense funding levels. 

Therefore, pieces like the ones from Cancian, Sharp, Harrison, and Daniels are a valuable way to examine both the priorities of the Biden administration, and the ways in which they line up with the current thinking about how to best protect the country. To that end, Cancian’s series of reports begins with an overview of the budget request submitted by the Biden administration, “U.S. Military Forces in FY 2022 – Peering into the Abyss: The Budget and Strategy Overview.” The report endeavors to examine the trade-offs the administration has proposed in terms of force structure and modernization. These trade-offs are an attempt to pay for investment in advanced technologies as part of the pivot to the Indo-Pacific and the renewed focus on great power competition. 

Cancian notes that the Biden administration’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG) calls for a broader definition of national security, encompassing issues ranging from democracy enhancement to racism, education, and climate. The INSSG also identifies five key threats to the U.S.: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Global Terrorism. The interim guidance also focuses on: the importance of allies; the ending of “forever wars”; the cutting of “legacy systems”; the constraints facing defense resources; the pursuit of arms control agreements; and the implementation of progressive social goals and the screening of arms sales. 

In attempting to enact this strategic guidance, the administration has, somewhat surprisingly, kept Pentagon funding levels similar to that of the Trump administrations’, though those funding levels are still unlikely to be enough to meet all the elements of the strategy. Overall, the FY 2022 request shows an increase to the personnel budget as well as research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) funding. However, overall procurement declines by approximately $8 billion in the Biden administration’s request—which appears contrary to the administration’s “divest to invest” approach. As Cancian notes, in the administration’s budget request, the services maintain their end strengths, even at the expense of modernization, which is antithetical to the philosophy put forth in the INSSG.

As part of his top-line analysis, Cancian outlines four challenges facing the administration as it attempts to balance the competing goals of maintaining readiness in order to meet day-to-day demands, and being prepared to fight a technological peer-competitor such as China. For Cancian, the first challenge is how to retain the capacity to accomplish U.S. objectives for regional conflicts, crisis response, and ally engagement, as high demand for forces by the individual combatant commanders increases operational tempo, creating a persistent drain on the readiness of servicemembers. Cancian points out that competing demands of high-end conflict and day-to-day deployments push the services toward a force that mixes advanced, expensive technology with less expensive items that can help against regional threats or during crisis response. However, he argues that though the Biden administration’s INSSG does not advocate such an approach, the service branches have still moved towards a diversification of elements, retaining older systems while still developing new ones. 

Another challenge faced by the administration is the gap between strategy and resources, as even when the budget was rising, there was criticism that it was not rising fast enough, with calls for the defense budget to grow between 3-5% per year. Cancian notes that the flat budgets of the Trump and Biden administrations has opened up a gap between strategy and resources, as the Department of Defense (DoD) requires budget growth every year to offset the increase in cost of personnel and operations due to inflation

A third challenge facing these budgets is the need to shift U.S. defense posture towards defending against peer-competitor Great powers. Cancian points to analysts like Becca Wasser and Stacey Pettyjohn, who argue that the FY 2022 budget request attempts to do “too much with too little” and instead argue for a strategy which cuts personnel in order to fund investments in advanced weaponry, which would satisfy a “divest to invest” strategy. However, Cancian argues that in those discussions, there are major unanswered questions, including which systems are true “legacy” systems, which can safely be cut. He notes that while strategists tend to see legacy platforms as those that use old tech and outdated operational concepts, military planners view “legacy” items more as older systems and platforms in their inventory. To that end, Cancian argues that while outside analysts would prefer to retire old tech platforms in favor of new, unmanned, smaller, distributed systems, the services would simply retire old platforms like the A-10 and F-16 in order to buy more of their similar, but modern, platforms like the F-35. Cancian argues that the FY 2022 budget request seems to indicate that the services definition of “legacy” seems to have prevailed, judging by the lack of unmanned aerial systems requested by the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps. 

Finally, a fourth challenge facing the Biden administration is that while it’s INSSG has received support in Congress and the national security community, some have proposed a more restrained path which would reduce overall defense spending by over $100 billion per year. Those critics would rather the U.S. focus on issues like climate and global health rather than conventional military threats. While those arguing for a shift in national security strategy have not won the day as of yet, the administration does include some funding for pandemics and climate change, though mostly to make the military more resilient. 

Overall, Cancian notes that polling demonstrates that most Americans feel that the U.S. military is either as strong as it needs to be or not strong enough. Meanwhile the support for budget increases and force expansion has been weak, but growing, since 2012, when the U.S. began its withdrawal from Afghanistan. In addition, he includes in his report a call for future budget documents to do more to link together DoD’s force structure calculations with the overall strategic goals that this force structure intends to achieve. Cancian argues that such explanations would require articulation of “theories of victory” which lay out how the U.S. proposes to use its forces in a conflict, illuminating the trade-offs and operational concepts that are left mainly hidden from public view. By providing such an explanation, the administration could not only strengthen the justification for the exact request that it has submitted, it would help the public understand the administration’s goals, and further the overall administration goals of increasing government transparency

Trends and Issues for the Next National Defense Strategy – CSIS

In addition to the series of reports from Mark Cancian, the Center for Strategic and International Studies also released, “Analysis of the FY 2022 Defense Budget: Funding Trends and Issues for the Next National Defense Strategy,” by Todd Harrison and Seamus P. Daniels, which took a holistic analysis of the entire proposed FY 2022 budget, looking for the various trends that have emerged. What Harrison and Daniels note is that some of the fastest rising areas of the Defense Department and national defense budget comes from funding for veterans, which has increased 94% above inflation over the past decade, compared to just 32% for social security, 47% for Medicare, and an overall 4% decline in national defense spending over the same period. 

With regards to war-related funding, the authors note that the 2022 budget is the first in two decades which does not include a separate request, known previously as the Overseas Contingency Operations budget. That practice, which was used to skirt budget caps from the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA), is no longer required as those BCA caps are no longer in effect. 

In terms of other funding trends, Harrison and Daniels note that overall, the FY 2022 budget request continues a shift towards spending a greater share of the budget on military personnel (MILPERS – grows 1.9% in real terms) and RDT&E (grows by 4.4% in real terms) rather than on procurement (declines 7.3% in real terms). Meanwhile, O&M funding grows just above inflation following a year of decline due to drawdowns in Afghanistan, and the expiration of COVID-related supplemental funding that was enacted in 2020. 

Furthermore, the authors note that the Biden administration is in the middle of conducting several reviews that will determine the future status of the overall national defense strategy; U.S. nuclear posture; and U.S. missile defense. As Congress this week passed the 2022 NDAA with $25 billion in funding increases, Harrison and Daniels note that this will set a new baseline for comparison when Congress begins consideration of the 2023 budget from the administration. This means that the $25 billion increase could mean the prospect of continued extra funding in 2023. 

Trends and Issues for the Next National Defense Strategy – CSBA

Back in July of this year, Travis Sharp at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments released “Slow and Steady: Analysis of the 2022 Defense Budget Request,”  which provides a number of useful insights when looking at the FY 2022 defense budget. The first trend that Sharp notes is that from between 2013 and 2021, the DoD had allocated a larger and larger portion of the topline budget to RDT&E, and investment in the air and naval forces, over personnel salaries and operations. However, Sharp is careful to note that this increase in topline share to 36% is still roughly similar to what DoD allocated in the 1990s and early 2000s, and far short of the 45% it received in the 50s, 60s, and 80s, during the height of the Cold War. Furthermore,  that percentage is consistent with a country which is transitioning to great power competition, while still not anticipating a major conflict in the next decade. Sharp believes that if war were indeed something that was being imminently contemplated, the administration would send more funding towards procurement. Relatedly, Sharp feels that the increase in RDT&E funding could risk an overbalance towards research and development over actually the actual procurement of new systems and platforms. As interesting as prototypes are, they are not nearly as useful as the genuine article. 

The second major trend that Sharp notes is that the Air Force and Navy have seen a greater share of the topline defense budget, as from 2013 to 2021, the two branches’ topline share grew from 38% of the budget to over 52%—though the Navy’s share tends to hover at around 24%. This increase in budget share reflects a focus by successive administrations on the idea of China as a peer-competitor pacing threat. However, Sharp is careful to note that in an era of flat budgets, further increases to the topline will be harder to find without major cuts to ground forces. 

Finally, Sharp, like Harrison and Daniels, notes that the administration is currently conducting reviews which will likely not be completed until later next year, meaning the FY 2023 budget request likely will not fully reflect the results of those reviews. Therefore, the FY 2024 request, which will be the administration’s third budget, will best encapsulate the administration’s overall strategic vision, demonstrating the administration’s true priorities, rather than reflecting the legacy ones inherited from the Trump administration. 

Service Branches – Army

Diving deeper into the specifics of the FY 2022 DoD budget request, CSIS’ Mark Cancian has published four separate papers, one on each of the major U.S. service arms—mostly excluding the Coast Guard and Space Force—examining how the FY 2022 budget requests impact their force structure and modernization plans. Beginning with the Army, Cancian notes that the service has taken a risk: Army leadership has decided to maintain personnel strength, both regular and reserve, despite a declining budget. To do so, it cut modernization, in the hopes that Congress would later add back what was cut. Cancian states that over the long-term, the Army’s eventual force structure will depend on future administration budgets, as relatively flat budgets from the Trump and Biden administrations threaten the Army’s ability to maintain its current force structure. Continuing flat budgets could force a reduction to the current number of brigade combat teams (BCTs), which senior Army leadership has questioned before. 

While the Army is keeping its force structure relatively unchanged, Cancian does note that the Army has finished establishing its Security Force Assistance Brigades, which conduct training, advising, assisting, enabling, and accompanying operations with allies and partners. The hope with these units is that they will reduce the strain on already overtaxed BCTs, which would otherwise have to deploy in pieces for those missions. 

In terms of total dollars, the Army budget request declined by $3.6 billion to $173 billion. However, in constant dollars, that actually amounts to a $5.5 billion cut over the previous years’ levels. Cancian notes that Army leadership argues that they are at the end of internal savings, however, as it has cut 105 procurement programs and further reduced funding to an additional 169 programs. Further, Cancian states that every Army account except for military personnel (MILPERS) receives a cut, including procurement ($2.8 billion) and RDT&E ($1.3 billion). In addition, cuts in the operations and maintenance (O&M) accounts mean reducing the training of certain high-level units to focus on a foundational readiness model that prioritizes the training of individuals and small units at the company level. 

Overall, the Army, like the other service branches, faces fundamental trade-offs between investments in current readiness and future modernization, which will determine the future force structure of the modern U.S. Army. Near-term, Cancian notes that the Army is trying to plug its capability gaps through upgrades rather than the procurement of entirely new systems, in order to avoid the risk of relying on just a few high-cost, high-risk programs. Further, despite a strategic emphasis on unmanned systems, the Army has not yet focused on the procurement of those systems. However, the Army has emphasized, in this year’s request, the procurement of the new Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, the Armored Multipurpose Vehicle, and the Mobile Protected Firepower System, all of which reflect a focus on great power combat with China or Russia. Still, long-standing concerns about modernization means that there are few new systems coming online due to: missed procurement cycles due to program failures; a focus on near-term systems for wars in Afghanistan and Iraq; and modernization funding reductions in the post-war drawdown after 2012. Ultimately, Cancian notes that the Army intends to develop “multi-domain task forces” that would integrate space, cyber, air, ground, and maritime domains in order to execute simultaneous operations across all of those domains. However, those units remain in the conceptual stage, and if the Army wants to build these new kinds of units in a constrained spending environment, it needs to reduce or eliminate some existing units, which means eliminating or slimming down the existing BCTs, with National Guard infantry BCT units the likely first target for a cut, especially as states lobby to restrict the ability of the federal government to make use of those troops. 

Service Branches – Navy

Cancian then proceeds to an analysis of the Navy’s FY 2022 request, which leaves the fleet at 296 ships. Further, as a result of the mostly flat budget, active duty personnel decreases 1,600 to 346,200. Cancian’s analysis makes clear that the Navy is caught between two worlds at the moment, attempting to modernize while still attempting to keep up with the myriad of commitments the Navy must meet all around the globe. Cancian notes that the average number of ships the Navy has deployed has hovered at around the current level of 100 ships, even though the overall number of ships in the fleet has declined. Furthermore, the European theater, which the U.S. had comfortably been able to ignore for the last thirty years, has re-emerged as a potential hot-spot in a future conflict with Russia, necessitating deployments to the area. 

Cancian notes that while there have been efforts to expand the fleet to 355 ships since at least 2016, the plan that has emerged under the Biden administration, while still possessing an architecture that was roughly similar to what was proposed at the end of the Trump administration, the Biden plan provides for less shipbuilding funds, producing a smaller overall fleet size. 

In terms of the individual elements of the fleet, Cancian notes that the carrier force size is essentially locked in a range between 9-11 carriers for the foreseeable future, with the Navy having procured two new Ford-class carriers in January of 2019. Furthermore, the Navy has continued to reject cheaper light-carriers as being insufficiently cost-effective, meaning that large carriers will likely continue to rule the day as the premier power-projecting element of the Navy’s fleet composition.

Regarding large surface combatants, which Cancian notes are the true backbone of the fleet, the Navy’s 355-ship goal would require 104 large destroyers and cruisers. However, the Biden plan only calls for sixty-five of these ships, which will reduce the overall number of missile launchers available for the fleet—a figure frequently seen as a key metric with which to judge overall fleet capability. To close the gap between the administration’s sixty-five ship goal and the current ninety-four ship inventory, the Navy has proposed to retire seven cruisers and decline to extend the service lives of some older destroyers, though Congress has balked at similar plans in the past. While the Congressional Budget Office has discussed other options to achieve the Biden administration’s goal, there are drawbacks to each plan, and it appears that a reduction in the current rate of ship procurement is not something the House or Senate would be at all comfortable with. 

Therefore, Congressional funding would still seem to provide for the Navy to procure two new large surface combatants a year while maintaining the current service lives on those ships. However, in terms of large surface combatants, there are major questions regarding the Navy’s next-generation large surface combatant, with many experts left wondering how the Navy will be able to find the resources for the program in light of the competition for resources already present in the large surface combatant fleet. 

In terms of small surface combatants, which include frigates, littoral combat ships, and mine countermeasures ships, there are issues here as well. While Cancian notes that the Navy proposes to phase out its remaining eight mine countermeasures ships by 2024, replacing them with littoral combat ships which are coming on-line, the littoral combat ship program has had problems of its own, and the Navy has already retired several of those ships early. Ultimately, Cancian notes that the late-era Trump and early Biden shipbuilding plans both assume large increases in shipbuilding resources, which may or may not materialize, meaning the planned increase in small surface combatants may never materialize. 

Amphibious ships are similarly in a state of flux as a result of new operational concepts that will reduce the number of large amphibious ships that the Navy and Marine Corps have become used to. Furthermore, while there are plans for a new Light Amphibious Warship for the Marine Corps, that project is still years away, and may struggle to find a balance between survivability, speed, beachability, and price. 

Regarding the submarine element of the fleet, here the Navy is in better shape in terms of reaching future fleet goals. The late Trump-era shipbuilding plan called for three new subs to be built per year, and the NDAA passed by Congress this week reinstates funding for a third Virginia-class submarine that was cut from the Biden administration’s submitted budget. Furthermore, the U.S. shipbuilding infrastructure is in dire need of revitalization, which has left the country with only two yards—one in Connecticut, the other in Virginia—that build submarines. There have been strong arguments that the Navy needs to invest money into shipyards, both in terms of facilities and workforce, just to achieve the planned rate of two attack submarines and one ballistic missile submarine per year. Furthermore, Cancian notes how the AUKUS submarine deal could put more pressure on the submarine industrial base, with the U.S. commitment to assist Australia in building its new nuclear-powered submarines. In the short-term, Cancian notes that the Navy’s submarine inventory will dip into the low 40s in the mid 2020s. Furthermore, this shortfall will occur just as Russian and Chinese submarines become more and more capable. 

In terms of unmanned vessels, while various concepts exist in various stages of development, none constitutes a program where the Navy has a commitment to build them, with all of their relevant support infrastructure included. While the Navy has proposed an unmanned undersea vehicle, that program is still in the prototype phase and there are still concerns about how they will be used in the real world, as they carry risks for potential unwanted escalation. 

Finally, in the air, the Navy has recently released its vision for naval aviation, and in 2022 the service calls for fewer new aircraft, as naval aviation is in fairly stable condition. However, Cancian notes that while that stability is great, the bad news is that the service faces both higher costs to maintain its inventory, and will soon see gaps in long-established production lines for platforms like the P-8 Poseidon and the FA-18. Further, a paucity of Navy drones will leave the force with questions about its ability to conduct intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions in a potential conflict with China. This failure to robustly support a drone program would reflect an overall Navy emphasis on manned aerial systems, despite the Navy’s overall interest in unmanned surface and subsurface combatants. 

Service Branches – Marine Corps

In terms of the Marine Corps, the Commandant has advocated that the branch return to its naval roots after years of ground-based fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. As part of this, the Corps envisions an architecture wherein it contributes to sea control through forward deployed aircraft and shore-based fires, not simply through landing Marines on beaches. To achieve a new balance towards aircraft and long-range fires, the Marines have proposed cutting three battalions to pay for their modernization efforts, as Congress had in the past eliminated funding for long-range fires in order to fund other Congressional priorities. In essence, the Marine Corps has proposed what it calls a “divest to reallocate” scheme, which divests legacy and surge capabilities—such as tanks—to allow for innovation and modernization in other areas.

While Cancian notes that there are supporters of the Marine Corps proposed “Force Design 2030”, there are a number of concerns with the proposed future force structure. Cancian notes that the focus on China downplays the possibility of conflict in other locations; that new warfighting concepts—which presume a Marine Corps that is able to operate inside the Chinese defensive bubble—are unproven; that a force designed for an island campaign in the Western Pacific against China would likely be unsuccessful in eastern Europe against Russia; and that future conflicts will be in the gray zone, an area in which which the Marine Corps will no longer be suited to due to its reduction in both short-range fighting ability and counter-insurgency capabilities. Overall, there are simply concerns that a focus on a high-end fight with China or Russia will make the Marine Corp unsuited to other tasks in the interim.

Going forward, the Marine Corps is, as mentioned above, working on new long-range fires. In addition, it has plans for unmanned ground systems, new air and missile defense, and a long-range unmanned surface ship. However, Cancian notes that the proposed future Marine Corps amphibious ships will unlikely be able to sustain the current structure of seven Marine Expeditionary Units, as the Light Amphibious Warship landing craft that is being developed is only intended for short voyages. 

Service Branches – Air Force 

In regards to the U.S. Air Force, that service branch has continued to procure new F-35 aircraft. However, Air Force procurement has not been conducted at a rate that is capable of sustaining its current force structure. Furthermore, Cancian notes that deep cuts to the Air Force fighter inventory are likely in the future, as the Air Force grapples with how to maintain fleet size in order to meet an operational tempo that has, since the 1990s, resembled war more often than peace. To meet those demands, the Air Force has decided to maintain inventory and procurement levels, while allowing the overall age of the fleet to increase. Cancian notes that while the Air Force’s fighter and transport fleets are still fairly new, its fighters (29 years), bombers, (45 years), tankers (49 years), choppers (32 years) and trainers (32 years) are all older, and while some of those programs have modernization plans in place, they take a long time, and the proposed budget has funding levels that are too low to sustain current inventory. 

To maintain a service life of 30-years for every aircraft in the fleet, it would require doubling the number of aircraft procured each year to 182 aircraft. However, even at 2021 funding levels, Cancian argues that the implied service life required to maintain the current inventory of 5,541 aircraft would mean the Air Force would need to extend the service life of all aircraft to an geriatric 43 years (5,5411 target inventory / 128 aircraft acquired per year = 43 year average life). Therefore, like the other service branches, the Air Force has to engage in a “divest to invest” strategy in order to meet its goals. Cancian notes that to meet its requirements, the Air Force has repeatedly proposed to retire aircraft, only to be rebuffed by Congress.  

As far as the current state of the Air Force’s aviation fleet, its bomber force is aging, though the B-21 program is making progress and should be fielding models soon. However, the fighter/attack force inventory, fleet age, and procurement rate do not produce a stable force, even though the fleet has decreased in size from around 4,000 aircraft in 1991 to just 2,094 today. And while the new F-35, KC-46 and C-130J’s do reduce overall fleet age by a little, it is not enough to maintain current inventory levels without a major increase in fleet age. This conflict is best demonstrated in the continuing tug-of-war between the Air Force and Congress over whether to retire some of the aging A-10 fleet. Ultimately, the Air Force and the administration are going to need to make a decision on the exact nature of its future fighter force, as the F-35 continues to be expensive, and its sixth-generation follow-up promises to be equally pricey

Finally, in terms of the tactical and strategic mobility fleets, Congress has finally allowed the Air Force to divest some of its aging C-130H cargo planes as well as 18 KC-135 and 14 KC-10 tankers. As far as the unmanned fleet goes, Cancian states that the proportion of remotely piloted aircraft in the fleet has stalled out at 5-7% over the past decade, and current procurement plans show no change, as the 2022 budget retires the block 30 RQ-4 Global Hawk in favor of the manned E-11 aircraft. 

Half Measures on Defense

President Biden likes to quote his father, who allegedly once said, ““Don’t tell me what you value. Show me your budget, and I’ll tell you what you value.” Taken in that light, the Biden administration’s budget shows that what it values is a more robust military budget than what many Democrats and progressives would like. Further, its lack of focus on unmanned systems is worrying, as the expense of procuring and maintaining existing manned systems continues to increase. Further, the decline in aircraft procurement, coupled with the increasing age of the fleet, poses worrisome questions when it comes to a potential future fight against China. 

Senators Cardin and Sanders are clearly correct that the U.S. has many other domestic challenges that it faces, ranging from the pandemic to income inequality, all of which are hard to address with a Pentagon budget that continues to eat up more than half of all discretionary spending, and “has increased by over $100 billion since President Trump took office.” If the administration is looking to keep the defense budget flat while simultaneously keeping inventories at current levels, then it will need to do more than what it has done in the FY 2022 budget request.

In an era of flat budgets, greater innovation is going to be required if the administration wishes to keep the U.S.’ currently robust capabilities. Therefore, the lack of funding for unmanned aerial vehicles, surface vessels, and underwater vessels is striking in its short-sightedness, particularly as China increases its ability with drones. Furthermore, Congress’ inability to move on from legacy systems like the A-10 and C-130 hinder the administration’s ability to keep cost down while keeping capability high. 

With its first budget, the administration has chosen a half measure rather than going all the way in its pivot towards China. Essentially, the argument that the U.S. is keeping legacy systems and platforms around in order to hedge against the lesser array of threats posed by transnational terrorism, Iran, or North Korea is a bit ludicrous. The goal of the Biden administration’s national security and foreign policy is to pivot U.S. attention away from conflicts in the Middle East and towards China and the Indo-Pacific. However, the administration seems to also wish to achieve that pivot towards Asia while simultaneously keeping the defense budget flat. Frankly, this is a nearly impossible goal, and conflicts with both the pivot towards China competition and the pivot away from smaller conflicts. For example, the FY 2022 budget contains funding for a number of systems, ranging from the littoral combat ship to the F-15EX and the A-10, all of which are either of questionable utility (littoral combat ship), or of questionable utility in a fight against China (F-15EX and A-10). Furthermore, a lack of focus on unmanned platforms misses a crucial opportunity to reorganize the armed forces in light of changing budgetary priorities. Essentially, if the administration is going to pivot towards Great Power competition with China, then it should pivot. There is a strong argument to be made that the Pentagon needs to learn to do more with less, as the country has other priorities that it desperately needs to fund. However, if the administration is going to pivot while concurrently attempting to keep the defense budget flat, it will need to invest in the RDT&E and procurement of more unmanned systems and other technology that will enable the service branches to truly do more with less. 

Overall, while the flat FY 2022 budget is encouraging in that it is not an increase from the Trump-era, the FY 2023 and FY 2024 budgets will be the real test of the Biden administration. Those budgets will not only determine whether the administration is able to shift funding from defense to domestic priorities, but also whether it is able to keep the U.S. ready for a fight against China in the future.

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Avoiding “A Total and Unmitigated Defeat” in Ukraine

December 10, 2021

As the year draws to a close, I would like to take the next two weeks to address a topic that I have revisited frequently over the past year: the fraught situation in Ukraine. As tensions between the U.S. and Russia mount over the Russian troop build-up around Ukraine, and the U.S. and Russian presidents face off in tense discussions over the fate of the eastern European country, it is a good time to give some final thoughts for the year on the state of affairs in Ukraine, and how the U.S. should proceed moving forward. Currently, there seems to be a great deal of pessimism surrounding Ukraine’s path towards further Western integration, despite the two sides having signed the charter for a new U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership just last month. Just this week, the Biden administration has pledged that it will not send U.S. troops to Ukraine to defend the country from a potential Russian invasion, providing a deal of clarity on the U.S.’ position. However, in removing that ambiguity, he has taken another club out of the U.S.’ bag, and potentially made the job of preventing a Russian invasion more difficult. 

Going forward, the U.S. needs to not be as cowed by Russian threats as they seemingly have been. The U.S. needs to definitively state that the provision of defensive equipment and training to a country like Ukraine, whose sovereignty and territorial integrity were violated, is something that the United States can and will continue to do. It needs to make clear to Russia that the United States will not permit Russia to dictate the path ahead for its neighbors simply because it is stronger. The responsibility to safeguard Ukraine’s choice to pursue Western integration is codified in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which guarantees that, “The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.” 

However, as former Ambassador Michael McFaul stated in an August column for the Washington Post, “In the global struggle between democracy and dictatorship, and the fight for a peaceful Europe, Ukraine is on the front lines – not unlike West Germany during the Cold War. During the 20th century, the United States had to demonstrate extraordinary resolve in defending the democracy and security of our friends in West Berlin and West Germany from Soviet aggression. The same is now required in a divided Ukraine.”

Indeed, it is time that the U.S. begins to demonstrate extraordinary resolve in defending the democracy and security of our partners. Despite some stalled domestic reforms, Ukraine has made real strides in reforming the judiciary as well as taking steps towards cleaning up its banking, social spending, and healthcare systems. While these reforms are, by no means, all that Ukraine still has left to accomplish, they do demonstrate that the Zelesnkyy administration has made strides, despite criticism that his administration has not done enough to clean up the country. 

Comparisons between Ukraine and Czechoslovakia in 1938 tend to put anyone advocating Russia’s position on the defensive. However, it should be noted that there are some parallels that cannot be avoided. As Churchill argued in September of 1938, “The partition of Czechoslovakia under pressure from England and France amounts to the complete surrender of the Western Democracies of the Nazi threat of force.” While the fall of Ukraine would not carry the same threat posed to Europe that the fall of Czechoslovakia did in the fall of 1938, it would be a similar capitulation, as Churchill also stated at the same time, “It is not Czechoslovakia alone which is menaced, but also the freedom and democracy of all nations.”

Whether it is providing more weapons to Ukraine—as some in Congress have recently proposed—sending U.S. troops or advisers—as President Biden seems loathe to do—or taking steps to be a more active player in the Kyiv, the U.S. clearly needs to do more to address the potential for yet another Russian invasion of Ukraine in the early parts of 2022. 

If there’s a place you got to go/I’m the one you need to know/I’m the MAP

When contemplating how to best assist Ukraine in facing up against the over 100,000 Russian troops arrayed near its border, one needs to consider the fact that—whatever the wishes of those who want to wash their hands of Ukraine, whether it is because they feel that the country has not done enough to combat corruption, spend on its military, or is simply not worth American blood and treasure—the United States, along with its European partners and allies, has a responsibility towards Ukraine based not only on the Budapest Memorandum, but on the subsequent statements by sequential U.S. governments. In addition to the Budapest Memorandum, 1994 saw Ukraine be among the first countries to join NATO’s Partnership for Peace program, and in 1997, the Alliance and Ukraine established a “distinctive partnership” aimed at depending Ukraine’s relationship with NATO. As has been outlined in these pages previously, this was followed by the 2009 Declaration to Complement the Charter on a Distinctive Partnership, which reaffirmed cooperation between Ukraine and the Alliance, and gave the NATO-Ukraine Commission a role in supervising the process outlined at the Bucharest Summit for a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP). In addition, as noted in prior articles, Ukraine is a membership of NATO’s Partnership for Peace Planning and Review Process, the Building Integrity program, the Defense Education Enhancement Program, the Air Situation Data Exchange, the NATO Operational Capabilities Concept Evaluation and Feedback Program, and an Enhanced Opportunities Partner in NATO’s Partnership Interoperability Initiative, amongst other programs. 

Despite all of this, its path towards a NATO Membership Action Plan has been stalled, and there seems to be little prospect of Ukraine receiving one in the near future. This is despite comments made by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in June of this year that, in regards to a MAP, “We support Ukraine’s membership in NATO. It currently has all of the tools it needs because since the Membership Action Plan was created, a number of other very important tools were developed to help countries prepare for possible NATO membership, including an annual program that Ukraine benefits from. In our estimation, Ukraine has all the tools that it needs to continue to move forward in that direction. And so we are working with it on virtually a daily basis. MAP itself would have to be done in full consensus with other NATO members.”

NATO’s 1995 enlargement study makes a commitment that, “No country outside the alliance should be given a veto or droit de regard over the process and decisions,” of the Alliance. However, it would appear that Russia has something to say about whether or not it should have the right to veto Ukraine’s further Western integration, and accession to NATO. While the Biden administration argues that it is corruption issues that is keeping Ukraine out of the Alliance, it is hard to reconcile that rhetoric with the fact that there is no real European desire or momentum for Ukrainian NATO accession. 

Despite that pessimism about their ultimate NATO prospects, in June of 2020, Ukraine was recognized as a NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partner, which, “includes enhanced access to interoperability programmes and exercises, and more sharing of information, including lessons learned,” and in September of this year, Ukraine participated in the Rapid Trident exercise, in which NATO forces increase combat readiness, defense capabilities, and interoperability, as part of NATO’s Partnership for Peace program. Put simply, Ukraine has undertaken many of the reforms that have been asked of previous MAP recipients, but because of the threat of Russian invasion hanging over the country, a MAP has not been given. This is despite being in a much better position to contribute to the Alliance than NATO member and longtime MAP holder, North Macedonia.  The country, which was a MAP holder from 1999 until its accession in 2020, had its accession stalled by concerns over corruption, as well as a longtime dispute with Greece over the country’s name. However, despite an active duty strength of just 8,000 and a GDP of $12.13 billion, the country was admitted to the Alliance without overwrought discussions about its potential to defend itself. 

Still, there are those who argue that it is time to revisit NATO’s open-door policy, and that Ukraine is not worthy of Alliance membership. Quite simply, these arguments are based on a cynical reading of the state of affairs between not only the United States and Russia and vice versa, but between the U.S. and Ukraine. 

Changing Putin’s Behavior

In his piece this week, War on the Rock’s Ryan Evans argues that with Ukraine, the West is stuck between its desire to keep the door open to NATO membership for all countries, and its desire to forestall an invasion of Ukraine that could result in the deaths of or privations to hundreds of thousands, if not millions. However, if that is not a false choice, it is at the very least an unduly pessimistic reading of the situation. Evans argues that instead of responding to the massing of Russian troops with their own promises of a response in kind, the West should negotiate with Putin, launching talks about overarching European security in return for Moscow demobilizing its invasion force. This would be counterproductive. 

As noted recently by Chatham House’s Keir Giles, “Russia has learned that when its objectives are unpalatable to the West, aggressive actions are the best way to achieve them. Causing damage has proven the most effective means of getting adversaries to do what Russia wants – even when what it wants is no more than dialogue, recognition, and ‘respect’.” Furthermore, the Carnegie Endowment’s Eugene Remer and Andrew S. Weiss have argued that the Russian buildup around Ukraine is about sending a message to the U.S. that it should, “pay close attention to Russia as a major power that cannot be marginalized on the U.S. agenda and that [Russia] retains the ability to make trouble in sensitive places where it has the upper hand.” Essentially, the U.S. needs to devise a way to engage with Russia while not validating their damaging behavior. 

In the field of psychology, there are concepts called response hierarchy, which is, “the arrangement of a group of responses or response sequences in the order in which they are likely to be evoked by a specific stimulus or to occur in a particular stimulus situation,” and extinction, which is, “the fading away and eventual elimination of undesirable behaviors. If a problem behavior no longer occurs, it’s said to be extinct, and the therapeutic process of accomplishing this is referred to as extinction.” In essence, when it comes to Russia, what the U.S. and its Western partners need to do is to put Russia’s aggressive behavior towards its neighbor, Ukraine, on extinction. But the way to go about that is not to reward Russia’s bellicose behavior towards Crimea with the kind of talk, recognition, and respect that its leaders feel they are entitled to. Instead, the West needs to reward only positive Russian behavior and withhold rewards for continued hostility. 

To that end, it would be fundamentally foolish to reward Putin with an offer to engage in talks over the fate of a sovereign country that he had invaded seven years ago, and has continued to menace ever since. It would not only fail to extinguish his disruptive behavior, it would reward it, encouraging him to continue engaging in such aggression, even after he has gotten what he wanted in Ukraine. As Winston Churchill argued in front of the British House of Commons in October of 1938, about Chamberlin’s position towards Czechoslovakia reached at Berchtesgaden, Godesberg, and Munich, “They will be very simply epitomized, if the House will permit me to vary the metaphor. £1 was demanded at the pistol’s point. When it was given, £2 were demanded at the pistol’s point. Finally, the dictator consented to take £1 17s. 6d. and the rest in promises of goodwill for the future.”

What the U.S. therefore needs to do is devise ways to reinforce functionally equivalent replacement behavior on Russia’s part: U.S. decision makers need to firmly establish with Putin that he will be given a seat at the table, that Russia’s concerns will be listened to, and that the West recognizes that Russia is a great power, worthy of respect and consultation on issues affecting their interests. But those discussions should carry no linkages whatsoever to the future status of Ukraine. 

The first thing that the U.S. should do to establish that it is willing to seriously engage with Putin on Ukraine is that the Biden administration should name a senior envoy to Normandy format talks. The naming of an envoy would hopefully convince Putin that the U.S. was serious about negotiation to resolve the conflict without the use of threats. What might also be offered to Moscow are real talks on Syrian stabilization and reconstruction—while still ensuring the future safety of our Kurdish partners—as the relationship between the Kurdish leadership and the Kremlin have warmed. Furthermore, opening up to talks on Syrian reconstruction could also draw in Iran, especially as efforts to revive JCPOA in Vienna have apparently stalled. Also included in a U.S. offer to Russia could be greater consultation on Arctic issues, including military-to-military discussions, and an agreement to work with Russia on making future maritime shipping on a potential North Sea Route both profitable and environmentally safe, as well as agreements to cooperate on search and rescue and scientific missions in the region. In addition, the U.S. might exploit feelings of Russian discontent with their partner China, particularly feelings of economic inequality between the two sides, and their growing competition in the Arctic. 

The U.S. needs to demonstrate to Putin that the West will provide Russia with the attention and respect that it deserves, but that it will not stand for threats and intimidation. However, it should be clearly communicated that in order for the U.S. to provide any of the aforementioned benefits to Russia, the Kremlin will first need to cease their hostile buildup around Ukraine. 

Make no mistake—this offer is highly unlikely to be found acceptable by Putin and his associates in Moscow. War on the Rock’s Ryan Evans is likely correct in his assumptions that Russian paranoia is genuine, that for Putin, stature and acknowledgement carry a large amount of weight, and that Putin has been consistent that NATO expansion and a limit on weapons systems to Ukraine are his red lines. He may even not be bluffing when says that the recent Russian mobilization around Ukraine is not just a signal. However, he has also seemingly learned that aggression is the best way to get the West’s attention and force its leaders to provide Russia with concessions. The U.S. simply cannot proceed with the relationship as long as Russia continues to demonstrate that behavior. As difficult as it will be to accomplish, that behavior has to be extinguished, as it is the key factor preventing a more stable relationship between the West and Moscow. 

What the U.S. cannot do is link any discussions about a Russian withdrawal or guarantee not to invade Ukraine with any discussions about the future political order and military arrangements of Ukraine. Evans seemingly would like the U.S. to open up talks with Russia on the Minsk agreements and NATO expansion in exchange for a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine’s borders. Leaving aside the fact that the Western Military District routinely sees up to ⅓ of Russia’s 168 permanent readiness battalion tactical groups (BTGs) due to exercises like Zapad-2021, and that Russia could quite easily decide to reverse course, there is the fact that Russia has not held up its side of the Minsk agreements. 

As Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the recent OSCE ministerial in Stockholm, “Diplomacy is the only responsible way to resolve this crisis, and we stand fully ready to support it.  Sergey was talking about implementing Minsk.  We fully agree.  But let’s also base that on the facts.  There are a series of commitments that both parties made under Minsk with the OSCE involved as well: ceasefire unimplemented by Russia, withdrawal of all heavy weapons unimplemented by Russia, allowing OSCE monitoring unimplemented by Russia, pass special status law implemented by Ukraine, pass amnesty law in progress, all-for-all political prisoner exchange unimplemented by Russia, ensure delivery of humanitarian assistance based on an international mechanism unimplemented by Russia, restoration of socioeconomic ties unimplemented by Russia. [emphases added]” Russia has not demonstrated that it is able to keep its end of this particular bargain. Until it does, it would be foolish of the U.S. to force Ukraine into concessions on the agreement.

A Security Commitment to Ukraine

War on the Rocks’ Ryan Evans also argues that the U.S. should welcome the end of NATO expansion, as, “it would serve European and U.S. security interests. It would avoid leveraging U.S. credibility for a state that represents, at best, a peripheral interest. It would avoid an expensive security commitment to Ukraine, a highly corrupt state that is under mortal threat but cannot bring itself to be serious about its own defense.” Evans offers as evidence the fact that the Congressional Research Service reports that Ukraine spent just 2.5% of GDP on defense in 2021. 

However, the State Budget of Ukraine provided 5.45% of GDP for defense in 2020 and that figure rises to 5.95% in 2022.  While spending did decline in 2021, and there was more funding for an allegedly crooked Interior Ministry, not only has the Ministry now cleaned its house, but it must be taken into account that Ukraine’s estimated $5.9 billion in defense spending puts it at 34th overall in SIPRI’s 2020 military expenditure rankings. Furthermore, Ukraine has increased its defense spending as a share of GDP from an estimated 1.5% in 2011 to 4.1% today. Poland, a NATO member which ranks 19th on SIPRI’s list, only spends 2.2% of GDP on defense, and has to consider the defense of Suwalki Gap from potential Russian attack.

Arguments that Ukraine is not doing enough for its own defense not only ignores the reality of their spending levels—especially the increases since 2014—it ignores the fact that there is almost no level of spending increase that would enable Ukraine to credibly defend itself against Russia, a country that spent $61.7 billion on defense in 2020. There are those like Evans, and the Rand Corporation’s Samuel Charap and Mike Mazarr—all brilliant thinkers, whose work I admire—who seem to feel that if the U.S. could just force its partner Ukraine to make concessions on Minsk and autonomy in Donbas, it would put the onus on Moscow to de-escalate. They seem to believe that the U.S. pursuit of a normative interpretation of the rules-based international order is fundamentally flawed in a world where the U.S. is no longer the unipole, able to dictate to the rest of the world the liberal international order that everyone else must conform to. However, I believe that there are several problems with such a conception of the state of affairs. Charap writes that if Ukraine were to make concessions on Minsk, on an amnesty and on amendments to the Ukrainian constitution on decentralization, it could get Russia to pull back; and if it did not, such concessions could be undone. However, not only would a Russian pullback not resolve the overall conflict between Kyiv and Moscow, such concessions may simply convince Putin that he can attempt to engage in the same behavior towards Ukraine in the future whenever Kyiv makes a foreign policy choice that Moscow disagrees with. 

As noted by Harvard’s Mark Kramer in a piece for the Wilson Center, the transfer of the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine was undertaken in 1954, as Khrushchev looked for a way to enforce greater Soviet control over the Ukrainian SSR. Kramer argues that Khrushchev believed that the transfer would “demonstrate how wise it was to have Ukraine ‘under the leadership of the Communist Party and the Soviet government.’” In essence, the status of Crimea was all about control over the people of Ukraine. Seventy years on, Russia’s behavior towards Ukraine is once again all about demonstrating its control over Kyiv. In fact, amendments to the Russian constitution that were adopted in 2020 states that, “The Russian Federation provides support to compatriots living abroad in exercising their rights, ensuring the protection of their interests, and preserving their shared Russian cultural identity,” and outlaws discussion of returning Russian lands to foreign powers. It is fundamentally a codification of a Russian refusal to discuss the return of Crimea, which was annexed illegally

There is an argument that conceding to Russia on some elements of Ukraine’s sovereignty would not be abandoning the idea of a rules-based international order, but merely a qualification of norms around the edges. Mazarr argues that allowing exceptions to the rules-based order will not produce a cascade of violations and the collapse of the norm, as it does not match historical experience. However, one merely has to look at the weak U.S. response to electoral interference in 2016 and its repeat in 2020 to see how Putin must salivate when he sees Western weakness. As former Ambassador Kurt Volker has stated in an article for the Center for European Policy Analysis this summer, “The United States and its allies almost always seek to avoid escalation and look for negotiated solutions. On issues of importance to Russia, this gives the Kremlin an immediate advantage. Putin can seize the initiative and create a crisis — such as by invading Ukraine — prompting the West to call for “de-escalation” and offer Putin an “off-ramp.” Putin can escalate further, causing even greater anxiety, and he can then step back minimally, to the relief of the West, while still having significantly advanced his agenda. He plays this card again and again. The West always seeks solutions and stability. Putin uses crises and instability to create points of influence.” 

While it is certainly untrue that the idea that the only way to project strength is to never give an inch on anything, it would be dangerous to classify allowing Russia a sphere of interest in Ukraine as merely “anything”. When talking about trading away the sovereignty of Ukraine, it needs to be taken into account that Ukraine is not some tiny European microstate; it is the 35th largest country in the world, and home to over 41 million residents. Therefore, commentators need to be extremely careful when offering to trade Ukraine’s sovereignty in order to avoid a conflict with Moscow. 

Furthermore, halting NATO expansion is tantamount to acknowledging a Russian sphere of interest in Ukraine. Evans argues that it is far from clear that Ukraine will ever be able to contribute to North Atlantic security, as it lacks the military to rebuff Russia. However, such an argument ignores the reality of NATO expansion since the end of the Cold War. Take, for instance, Hungary and Poland, two of the countries added as part of the Visegrád group of countries, which achieved NATO accession in 1999. Neither Poland’s armed forces, with its approximately 110,000 current active duty troops, nor Hungary, with its just 22,000 troops, come close to Ukraine’s 255,000 active duty personnel and 900,000 reservists. While it is certainly true that Ukraine lacks the ability to deter Russia on its own, NATO was not created so that only large countries with huge militaries would be admitted, as it included such small nations as Luxembourg at its founding. What has changed in the intervening two decades is the willingness of the U.S., and more importantly EU member states, to spend on defense. That lack of defense spending has made them hesitant to extend NATO’s security umbrella, as it would require them to increase their levels of defense spending and burden sharing. 

A Way Forward – U.S. Observers

As Evans states, it is not too late for the Biden administration to seize the diplomatic initiative and broker arrangements to avert a war. But it is important that conversations are begun based on reality. As former Ambassador Daniel Fried recently said in comments made to the Atlantic Council, “Now, it’s important to start conversations with Russia based on the truth, and not start negotiating based on their lies. And I use strong language deliberately. Enough. Minsk has its flaws, but there is nothing in Minsk, as it is actually written, as opposed to the Kremlin’s tendentious interpretation of it, which would prevent a reasonable settlement in the Donbas if Putin wants it. If Putin doesn’t want it, Minsk is not going to help. So, by all means, let’s have the U.S. involved in diplomacy. But not…doing some dirty deal with Russia, that is unsupported by the facts.”

Of course the U.S. should be willing to encourage Kyiv to make certain concessions in order to avoid further militarized confrontation in Ukraine. However, Russia first has to make clear that it is willing to meet its responsibilities under Minsk, starting with immediate and comprehensive ceasefires in Donetsk and Luhansk and the withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides. Only then should the U.S. push Ukraine to uphold its agreements on elections in the separatist regions and make the changes to the country’s constitution. 

The U.S. should make an offer to conduct a dialogue with Moscow, but it should be made clear that such a dialogue will not be held exclusively on the Kremlin’s terms. When Russia took Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk at the point of a bayonet, it lost all credibility to argue that the West needs to respect its interests in the region, as it will seemingly pursue those interests regardless of the requirements of international law or treaties. It is simplistic to argue that pushback is the only thing that Putin respects, but it is equally facile to argue that Western concessions will similarly change Putin’s overall calculations regarding Ukraine. 

From the 2004 Orange Revolution to the 2013-2014 Euromaidan protests, Ukrainians have continually decided that they wished to have closer ties to Europe and the West. As a response, Russia has shut off gas to Ukraine in the past, and, after the Euromaidan protests and the subsequent flight to Russia by the ousted Viktor Yanukovych, Russia invaded, violating Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Twice so far this year, Putin has massed troops along Ukraine’s border in order to threaten the country and its U.S. backers in order to gain assurances that the U.S. will not station defensive weapons in Ukraine or grant the country NATO membership. This has resulted in a flurry of heated conversations in the West about how Russians’ sensitivities need to be respected. Instead of treating Putin’s behavior as something meriting a conciliatory Western response, the U.S. and its European partners should not reinforce Putin’s aggressive behavior by granting concessions. By making clear that the U.S. is not willing to make concessions every time Russia makes a threatening move, it will reduce the likelihood that Russia will engage in such threatening behavior in the future. Furthermore, the U.S. should make abundantly clear to Russia that it will consider Ukraine’s application to become a part of NATO as it would any other western European nations’, as the U.S. and its European partners are not cowed by the threats of Russian invasion of Ukraine. Instead, the U.S. should make clear that it is willing to discuss other matters—such as Syria—that may also satisfy Russia’s need to be taken seriously as a great power and worthy of other great powers’ respect and consultation. 

As argued recently by the Atlantic Council’s Brian Whitmore, in response to Russian aggression towards Ukraine, “The United States and its allies should be prepared to respond with the strongest possible sanctions, including but not limited to barring Russia from the SWIFT payment system, ending the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, and banning the buying and selling of Russian sovereign debt on the primary and secondary markets.” All of these responses should remain on the table. However, in addition, the Biden administration should consider doing something that would further raise the stakes of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. For instance, while it is true that tripwire military deployments are of questionable utility, there have been discussions in some parts of the West that Ukraine’s military is not as strong as its quarter million man size would indicate. Therefore, what the Biden administration might consider is a deployment of senior level Department of Defense officials and high-level military commanders to conduct a several-months long review of the Ukrainian armed forces, from a first-hand perspective. For instance, such a task force could be headed by EUCOM Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. John D. Lamontagne, who previously served as Deputy Director of the Joint Staff J-5 focusing on Europe, NATO, and Russia. 

It would be important that such a mission would need to be well publicized, so that Russia was aware of the presence of U.S. personnel; the mission would need to be just small enough that it was clear that the U.S. officials were merely observers; and the mission would need to be conducted so that U.S. soldiers and Department of Defense personnel would be attached to most major deployments of Ukrainian troops. Such a deployment would increase the stakes for a Russian invasion, and hopefully give them pause in a way that sanctions, and the threat of more, just have not seemed to be able to. Finally, there is evidence that not only would Americans support such a deployment of observers and fact-finders, they would support the provision of American troops to defend the sovereignty of Ukraine. It turns out that Western publics’ are not so willing to trade away their partners’ security for their own after all. 

Providing such a personnel deployment to Ukraine would not be about the principle that the U.S. has the right to maintain military ties with whatever country it wants. It is not about the United States throwing its weight around. It is about the fact that Ukraine should be able to decide to have military ties with whatever country it wants. NATO’s website states that the Alliance’s purpose is to, “secure a lasting peace in Europe, based on common values of individual liberty, democracy, human rights and the rule of law…Essentially, NATO not only helps to defend the territory of its members, but also engages where possible and when necessary to project its values further afield…”

As Mike Mazarr of the RAND Corporation has noted, the U.S. did not fight for Hungary or Czechoslovakia in the ‘50s and ‘60s without a collapse in American credibility. However, in Hungary, the U.S., through its Radio Free Europe broadcasts, was guilty of building up the hopes of Hungarians, giving them the impression that the U.S. would be there for them in the event of an uprising. Similarly, the U.S., through its repeated promises to Ukraine that it will eventually become a NATO member, have raised the hopes of Ukrainians that the U.S. will support it in its fight against Russia. As the Soviet troops rolled into Budapest on November 3, 1956, the call went out on Hungarian rebel radio, “Where is NATO? Where are the Americans? The British? The French? We listened to your radios. We believed in freedom. There is no time now for conferences and discussion. Give us arms. Send the bombers. Crush the soviet terror which is about to end our hard won liberty.” However, no U.S. aid arrived, and the sting of American hypocrisy still lingers amongst many Hungarians. 

Sir Samuel Hoare, then British Home Secretary, said of Neville Chamberlain’s Munich agreement, that “The Sudeten Germans looked to reunion with the Reich…To union with the Reich. It was reunion with a German State. Union with the Reich was the ideal that they were determined to achieve. Further than that, we faced the fact that owing to the geographical position of Czechoslovakia it mattered not who might win or lose the war, Czechoslovakia would almost inevitably be destroyed. Some said it would be a matter of days and others said a matter of weeks, but all were agreed who had studied the strategic position that it could not be a matter of more than a month or two. In the meanwhile, the republic would have been destroyed; immense slaughter would have taken place within its boundaries; devastation would have run riot. Supposing that at the end of the war we emerged the victors–and I have always believed, as every Member in this House believes, that in the final result we should emerge the victors–then we should be confronted with a position in which Czechoslovakia as we know it to-day would have been destroyed, and I do not believe that the negotiators of the peace treaty in any conditions would ever recreate its old frontiers….” Just as there were those who argued that the defense of Czechoslovakia would be wasted blood, there are those that argue that a defense of Ukraine would be a similar waste. 

However, sustaining the ability of every country in Europe to make the decision to pursue whatever network of alliances it wishes is a fundamental, and vital, interest of the United States, and all NATO members. A failure to do so would send a terrible message to potential friends and allies in the Indo-Pacific—that the U.S. will give in to an authoritarian autocracy’s demands and refuse to come to a partner’s aid when they are threatened.

As Churchill said during the parliamentary debates surrounding the Munich agreement, “After the seizure of Austria in March we faced this problem in our Debates. I ventured to appeal to the Government to go a little further than the Prime Minister went, and to give a pledge that in conjunction with France and other Powers they would guarantee the security of Czechoslovakia while the Sudeten-Deutsch question was being examined either by a League of Nations Commission or some other impartial body, and I still believe that if that Course had been followed events would not have fallen into this disastrous state.” Just as well, after the seizure of Crimea in 2014, the West faced the problem of Russian aggression towards Ukraine. If the West had pledged to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine while the question of Donetsk and Luhansk was examined, then the events that followed may not have fallen into this disastrous state. The United States therefore must not allow Russia to have a veto over the foreign policy of any of its neighbors.

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